NFL Week 7 Preview

Week 7 Preview

Week 5 might have been the best week of the season so far, with seven games being decided by 3 points or less. There were epic comebacks and collapses, some devastating injuries (to my Super Bowl pick!!!!!!!), and some dominating performances (NYG at SF, Aaron Rodgers’ 6 TD). The entire AFC East is 3-3, and the AFC as a conference has looked horrible, with only two teams above .500: the Texans who got humiliated on Sunday Night at home, and the Ravens who just lost Ray Lewis. The NFC has been dominant, with teams like the Seahawks, Vikings, and Redskins all greatly improved. With so many teams hovering at 3-3, Week 7 is the week when the world will see who are contenders, and who are pretenders. There are some intriguing teams on bye this week: the Chargers, who just blew a 24 point halftime lead to the Broncos, also on bye; the Eagles, who blew a late 10 point lead at home and panic-fired Juan Castillo; and the undefeated Falcons, who have escaped with wins for three straight weeks now. Even with these polarizing teams off, there are still plenty of wild match-ups. Let’s take a look at them.

SEA vs SF (-7.5) - Thursday Night games are always crazy, and we’ve seen that for two straight weeks now (Rams over undefeated Cardinals, Titans over Steelers). What’s the common denominator in these games? The unexpected winners were at home. Home teams win on Thursday Night. So I’m picking the 49ers here. However, a 7.5 spread is ridiculous. This is a Seahawk team with arguably the best defense in the league, facing off against the best defense from last year. They just beat the Patriots, albeit at home. This is going to be a tough, physical match-up, and I think that the first team to 20 points wins the game. Whoever comes out of this game on top will have the inside track to the division title and possibly a first round bye. It would be a huge statement to the NFL if the Seahawks are victorious. No way San Fran beats the 7.5; give me the Seahawks and the points. Seattle 16, San Francisco 20.

TEN vs BUF (-3.5) - The Titans are coming off a last-second Thursday Night win over the vaunted Steelers to improve their record to 2-4, and we finally have a Chris Johnson sighting! The Bills, meanwhile, proved last week that they can win on the road by beating the Cardinals in overtime, while the defense looked much better. Buffalo is 3-3 and have a home game against an inferior opponent. If they want to take the next step as a team, these are the kind of games you have to win. I’m taking them, and if the Bills lose this game, they are officially pretenders. Tennessee 21, Buffalo 28.

CLE vs IND (-3.5) - The Browns got their first win of the season last week (as predicted by me), and now come to Indy. The Colts may have been emotionally drained after their dramatic win against the Packers, because they went to New York and got smacked down by the Jets. This run defense has been horrid, so if Trent Richardson is healthy, he could be due for a big day. However, I think that the Colts will be back to normal and fired up in front of the Indy fans, and Andrew Luck will have a nice bounce-back game. Chuckstrong. Cleveland 20, Indianapolis 30.

GB vs STL (+5.5) - So here’s our first home dog...being given 5.5 points against a Packers team that looked impressive for the first time last week in their win against Houston. The Rams are 3-0 at home, beating the Cardinals, the Seahawks, and the Redskins. As much as I would like to take the Rams and the points, I find it hard to believe that Aaron Rodgers can’t go into St. Louis and outscore Sam Bradford by a touchdown. This game makes me a little nervous, but I’m still going to ride with the pack. 10 point game: Green Bay 24, St. Louis 14.

ARI vs MIN (-5.5) - This is a match-up of a couple of surprising 4-2 teams coming off losses. The winner will be 5-2 and have a real shot at the playoffs; the loser will be 4-3 and looks like they are falling back to earth a little bit. I’m more of a believer in the Vikings. Christian Ponder is better than John Skelton, AP is light years ahead of whoever the Cards have at RB, and Percy Harvin has been a beast. There are two solid defenses in this game, but the Vike’s defensive line at home will be juiced up to get after this Arizona offensive line that has looked like tissue paper. Vikings win, and they cover the spread. Arizona 19, Minnesota 27.

WAS vs NYG (-6.5) - This is a very questionable line. The Giants went into San Francisco and dominated the 49ers on Sunday, but Big Blue should NEVER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES be favored to win by a touchdown or more at home. Especially against a division rival. Especially when the opposing team beat the Giants twice last year. With Rex Grossman. The quarterback for the Redskins is Robert Griffin the Third. I don’t have an upset special this week, but if I had to choose an upset, this is the game that makes the most sense. I’m taking the Giants to win. But there is no way I have them by a touchdown or more. This is what the G-men do: look incredible on the road against a top team, and then come home and struggle as the favorite. At least 1 rushing TD for RGIII, 350+ yards for Eli. Washington 27, New York 31.

NO vs TB (+2.5) - Before the season, this game looked like a potential huge match-up in the NFC South: a test for the decimated Saints on their path to stick it to the commissioner, and a statement game for the young Bucs looking to prove themselves. Now, this game doesn’t really have any playoff implications, as the Falcons are in control of the division, and these teams both have losing records. I want to take the Buccaneers in this battle, but I don’t have the stones. Give me Brees after a bye week. But watch out for Vincent Jackson. New Orleans 27, Tampa Bay 20.

DAL vs CAR (+2.5) - I thought that Cam Newton and the Panthers would take the next step this year and even push to win the division. Early in the season, I already have no hope for them. They look ugly. This team did have a win in Atlanta all but locked up before blowing it in heartbreaking fashion. It’s Cam or bust, and he has not performed well in his sophomore season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys had an improbable win in their grasp against the Ravens, and choked it away as only they could. That began a five game stretch that includes at CAR, vs NYG, at ATL, at PHI. I think that they will only win one of those games, and it’s this one. The Panthers have completely underwhelmed in 2012, and this Dallas team needs a win. They’ll get it here. With no Murray, Romo is due for a big game. Cowboys get TDs, Panthers get FGs. Dallas 28, Carolina 16.

BAL vs HOU (-6.5) - I had this game starred as the most important match-up of the 2012 NFL season. These are absolutely the two best teams in the AFC, and the winner of this game will be the number one seed (in my opinion). Both teams have suffered enormous losses lately: Ray Lewis and LaDarius Webb for the Ravens, and Brian Cushing for the Texans. Haloti Ngata is also banged up, but there are rumors that T-Sizzle might play in this game. The return of Terrell Suggs was the reason I picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl this year, but if Ray Lewis is out...yikes. I’ve got the Texans at home in this one straight up but not with the spread; give me the Ravens and the points. This has the makings of the top game of the week. Baltimore 24, Houston 27.

JAC vs OAK (-4.5) - This is the ugliest game of the week, so I’ll make it fast. The Jaguars stink. They are traveling across the country. The Raiders are at home. Carson Palmer should have a big game. Taking the silver and black. Jacksonville 13, Oakland 19.

NYJ vs NE (-10.5) - Really? Ten and a half points? The Patriots are a better team than the Jets and are at home coming off a loss, but I think this game stays in the single digits. The Jets are going to pull out all the stops and will do anything possible to win this game. These teams hate each other, and it is going to be a fight from beginning to end. I’m taking the Pats to win this game because they are superior, but do not count the Jets out. This one is coming down to the 4th quarter. New York 23, New England 27.

PIT vs CIN (+2.5) - I have made it clear that I am not a believer in the Bengals. I have also made it clear that I did not think that the Steelers would make the playoffs. I’m hoping this one is a tie, because I don’t want either of these teams to win. There is still no Polamalu for Pittsburgh, and AJ Green is tearing up the league. You can make the case that the Bengals will win this game and move to 4-3. I hope they do win, because they won’t be great in the long run, and I want the Steelers as down as possible. But I don’t see it. This game will be nasty, it will be close, and I think it comes down to Big Ben performing his third down magic and keeping the Bengals defense on the field. Give me Pittsburgh 23, Cincinnati 20.

DET vs CHI (-5.5) - I LOVE the Bears this year, and I have ever since the Brandon Marshall trade. I’m down on the Lions. I think you know where this one is going. The Bears own Monday Night, and this team will be ready after a bye to dominate and show the league their potential. Cover city. Detroit 17, Chicago 31.