NFL Week 6 Preview

Week 6 Preview

There are five weeks in the books of the 2012 NFL season and things are starting to take shape regarding the layout of the league and which teams are true playoff contenders. There were some wild games last week, none of which topping the Indianapolis Colts upsetting the mighty Packers and getting a win for their coach Chuck Pagano, who is currently battling leukemia. The Manning-Brady bowl wasn’t much of a thriller but was filled with the tension of the Broncos always being in striking distance. They would have been right there if they didn’t commit three turnovers (two inside the Pats’ 25), and didn’t give up 250 yards rushing. Drew Brees broke the record for most consecutive games with a touchdown pass (48) and led the Saints to their first win of the season against the Chargers. This week, there are some more intriguing contests, including the NFC Championship rematch between the Giants and 49ers, and the Sunday Night match-up of Green Bay and Houston, which is a potential Super Bowl match-up. Let’s take a look at these games, and try to bet right.

PIT vs TEN (+5.5) - The Pittsburgh Steelers are obviously the premiere team in this Thursday Night game. However, they will be without Polamalu and Woodley for this game, which is a blow to the defense. Tennessee will be starting Matt Hasselbeck, and we still don’t know where Chris Johnson has been this season. This has the makings of a very ugly game. I think the Steelers will win on talent alone, but crazy things happen for the home team on these Thursday Night games, so therefore...give me the Titans and the points! Four-point win for the Steelers. Pittsburgh 21, Tennessee 17.

OAK vs ATL (-8.5) - So...the Raiders are 1-3 and bone-headed, traveling to the East Coast to take on the undefeated, well-coached, multi-dimensional Falcons who are nearly unbeatable at home...give me the Raiders! Just kidding. I don’t like big spreads, but this will be a double digit game. Oakland 20, Atlanta 31.

CIN vs CLE (+2.5) - Welcome to the “awful division battle between two bad teams that will be close and exciting but no one will care because it won’t mean anything” game. Browns fans get ready...this is my Upset Special of the Week! Cleveland gets their first win of the season against the overachieving Bengals! I still think they will get the first pick in the 

draft next year though. Cincinnati 13, Cleveland 17.

STL vs MIA (-3.5) - The Dolphins play pretty well at home. The Rams do not play well on the road. I kind of think this will be a field goal game which makes me nervous about taking the 3.5 but I’m confident enough that Miami will win to worry about the possibility of not covering. So give me the Dolphin clap. St. Louis 16, Miami 24.

IND vs NYJ (-3.5) - This is the turning point game of the week, for each team. I am going on record right now that if the Colts win this game, they will make the playoffs as a wild card. Meanwhile, if the Jets lose this game at home against a rookie quarterback, you can pretty much book that Tim Tebow will start after the Week 8 bye sitting at 2-5 (after they lose to NE next week). And I don’t think he will turn the season around. The Jets played surprisingly well against Houston on Monday Night which is a positive, but I think that Indy wants it more for their coach. In an emotional, desperation game, they come out on top. Indianapolis 27, New York 21. And a playoff spot for Luck and the Colts.

DET vs PHI (-5.5) - I don’t like either of these teams. The Lions are the NFC’s Raiders with the lack of maturity. The Eagles are a turnover machine that have won their three games by a combined four points, which right now looks like luck. That being said, I’m taking the Eagles in a semi-blowout at home. Philly is too fast for the Lions. Watch out for the pass rush against Vick though. If they ride LeSean McCoy, they’ll be good to go in this one. Detroit 20, Philadelphia 34.

KC vs TB (-3.5) - This one hurts. Right before the season started, I predicted the Chiefs to win the AFC West. I did not think Matt Cassel would have 13 turnovers in five games, and that the defense would crumble. I thought they would beat the Ravens last week and they game close, and were a Cassel fumble at the 1 yard line away from winning. Now they travel to a rested, hungry Buccaneers team. I want the Chiefs to win with Brady Quinn starting, but I don’t see it. I’m still picking them with points out of hope. Bucs in a tight one, but don’t cover. Kansas City 19, Tampa Bay 21.

DAL vs BAL (-3.5) - Well, the Cowboys needed a strong start with the gauntlet of a schedule that’s coming, but instead they went 2-2 and look bad on offense. Now they have the Ravens on the road to start a stretch of at CAR, vs NYG, at PHI, at ATL. Wow. That’s why I picked them to finish 6-10. Baltimore always has those games where they struggle, and they didn’t disappoint last week, as they only beat the Chiefs 9-6. They won’t have two of those in a row. They dominate at home. Give me Baltimore, big. Maybe, next year, Dallas. Again. Dallas 17, Baltimore 34.

BUF vs ARI (-4.5) - Let’s take a moment of silence to mourn the loss of the Buffalo defense........ok, now we can get to business. They suck. In their three losses, they have allowed 48, 52, and 45 points. You don’t need to be a genius to understand those numbers. Now they go to Arizona, and although the Cardinals don’t sport a high-octane offense, they are great at home, and you can bet that this defense will force turnovers from Ryan Fitzpatrick. I thought the Bills would make the playoffs this season. Not my best prediction. Cover city. By the way, how about Daryl Washington, the Cardinals’ middle linebacker? Underrated stud. Buffalo 17, Arizona 27.

NE vs SEA (+3.5) - We’ve seen what happens to top offenses when they play this Seattle defense. Now put them at home. In that stadium. Against a great but flawed and banged up New England offense. With a team that can control the clock with the legs of Wilson and Lynch. This game will be tight. I’m picking the Seahawks to win straight up because I hate the Patriots, but even if the Pats win, it will be by a field goal. Going against the odds and taking Seattle, in an unofficial upset. Let’s see what the Seahawks are made of. This defense is no joke. Not to self-promote, but...I did have Seattle having a top five defense this year. Check my Seahawks preview. They force at least two turnovers, with one possibly going back to the house. New England 20, Seattle 23.

NYG vs SF (-5.5) - Really? The 49ers are getting six points against the best road team in the NFL and the same guys who just came into this stadium and beat this team in the NFC Championship Game last year? No one is picking the Giants on the road, and that’s when they do their best. Unfortunately, neither am I. Not without Hakeem Nicks at full strength. That being said, 5.5 points is a lot in this game, so while I will be rooting for the G-Men to win, I have to pick the 49ers at home. But they don’t cover; this is a three-point game, no matter who wins. New York 24, San Francisco 27.

MIN vs WAS (-2.5) - The key to this game is RGIII’s health. Does he play coming off a concussion? If he is not on the field, or not as effective as he can be, then Minnesota is going to win this game. The Vikings are in my opinion the biggest surprise in the NFL this year, and they have the recipe to win: run the ball, play solid defense, QB moves the chains and can extend plays with his legs. I’m not going to predict a playoff spot for them, but they win this game to move to 5-1. Minnesota 23, Washington 17.

GB vs HOU (-3.5) - What a Sunday Night game this will be. Packers-Texans was a very popular Super Bowl pick for this season (I picked neither of these teams), and I think this game will live up to expectations. How about the Pack, who, after a 15-1 season last year, can potentially fall to 2-4? The Texans could be the most complete team in football, as proven by their 5-0 record. This will be a defensive struggle, and Houston wins those kind of games. Green Bay can’t run the ball or play good defense. What are the Texans’ strengths?...Oh. Right. Gotta go with the Texans in this one...this is not the year of the Packers. 2-4, ouch. Green Bay 20, Houston 27.

DEN vs SD (-2.5) - This game scares me. I do not like the Chargers. I love Peyton Manning. Denver is 2-3. San Diego is 3-2. We all know what happens if San Diego wins this game. Peyton is very bad against the Chargers (6 INT, ring a bell?), so a Monday Night game would perfectly showcase his inabilities. So...Broncos win. Because they have to, for my sake. This is a toss-up game. Are the Chargers for real or not? Will Peyton start out 2-4? No, I don’t see it. On Tuesday morning, both of these teams will be 3-3. The Chargers take naps sometimes. It’s a shootout! Denver 31, San Diego 27.