2012-2013 NBA Western Conference Preview

2012-2013 NBA Western Conference Preview

The Western Conference is going to be a zoo this year. In my eyes, there are six playoffs spots all but locked up already; the regular season will be just about the seeding. The headlines out west are very interesting, from the top of the conference to the bottom. How good will the Lakers be? Can the Thunder win their first championship? Will James Harden be traded or will OKC resign him? Are the Spurs too old to compete? Between the Clippers, Nuggets, and Grizzlies, who will compete with the top dogs? How far will the Mavericks fall? Who will claim the last two playoff spots? Will Linsanity continue in Houston? There are many questions circling this conference, but the most important one there is right now would be: Are we due for a Lakers-Thunder Western Conference Finals? We’ll have to see. Here are my predictions for how the Western Conference standings will shake out.

    1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 59-23

The Oklahoma City Thunder are still incredibly young and super talented. They made the NBA Finals last year and came up short against the Miami Heat, but last year it didn’t seem like this team was ready for the moment. Now they’ve had a taste of what the biggest stage feels like, and they will be hungry for a championship. This team has one of the best home field (or in this case, court) advantages in all of sports and I think we are due for the Kevin Durant MVP season. This team will have the best record in all of basketball, and yes, I do think they hold on to James Harden. They won’t win without him. Even with all the hype in LA, I still think that this is the team to beat in the West.

2. San Antonio Spurs: 58-24

No one ever gives the Spurs any credit for what they do year after year. Do you know what the record was for this team last year? 50-16, tied for the best in the NBA. The core of this team is definitely old, but Greg Popovich manages minutes better than anyone. San Antonio is extremely deep, getting contributions from people like Gary Neal, Danny Green, and Tiago Splitter. I think they will barely miss getting the top seed in the West again, but they won’t mind the number two spot. This is the most balanced team in the NBA from top to bottom.

3. Los Angeles Lakers: 56-26

Contrary to popular belief, I do not think that the Lakers will run all over the Association just they picked up Steve Nash (my favorite player) and Dwight Howard (the biggest crybaby in the world). They have a monstrous starting five with Nash, Bryant, World Peace, Gasol, and Howard, but they lack much bench talent. I think that Steve Nash will have this unit playing effectively and will lead the Western Conference in assists (second in the NBA to Rondo). Kobe will get his, averaging over 25 a game. Howard should be a beast on the inside but will only average probably 15 points a game. The key is Gasol, who is the overlooked weapon in this offense. When he rolls pick and rolls with Nash, he is talented enough to finish at the rim, but also a good enough passer to kick it to the open man. This team will compete at a high level, but I think the three seed in the West is a fair evaluation.

4. Denver Nuggets: 53-29

The number four seed in the West last year was Memphis. The team most people like to be the four seed this year is the Clippers. However, I am a huge fan of the Denver Nuggets this year. This team can run like the wind, and is as deep as anyone. Ty Lawson is possibly the fastest man in the NBA but efficient as well, and the Nuggets still have Andre Miller to run the show as well. They made a huge trade picking up Andre Iguodala in the Dwight deal. They now have someone who can guard the Ginobilis, Hardens, and Bryants of the Western Conference, as well as score, rebound, and assist. Danilo Gallinari is a sniper from the outside, and remember, they get Wilson Chandler back from China this year too. Kenneth Faried is primed to break out; he is a high-energy player who can average 12 boards and over a steal a game. “Manimal” can affect the game without scoring, so watch out when he does. JaVale McGee gets a bad rep for being.....not the brightest bulb in the box, let’s just say. But he is a force on the inside and should average over two blocks a game. We saw flashes of his potential in the playoff series against the Lake Show. I love this team. If they keep this core of players, then in a year or two they will be competing with the Thunder for the Western Conference crown. Look out.

5. Los Angeles Clippers: 52-30

The Clippers finally became relevant again last year and are looking to improve this season. Their season ended in the second round last year when they got dominated by the Spurs. They have reloaded, adding depth all around the roster. CP3 is still leading this team at point, and Eric Bledsoe is a quality backup. Chauncey Billups is out for at least a month, but the signing of Jamal Crawford gives this team a shooting threat. The Clips added Grant Hill and Lamar Odom to their bench, and the “other” LA team still has the highlight show that is Blake Griffin. This team will put up numbers, but to me they are a little too flashy and don’t have enough substance. That’s why I have them at number five. Is Vinny Del Negro the coach to lead this team to the promised land?

6. Memphis Grizzlies: 50-32

The Grizzlies are coming off a season in which they quietly got the number four seed in a loaded Western Conference. The starting five is legit, with Conley, Allen, Gay, Randolph, and Gasol. I think the loss of OJ Mayo to Dallas, though, will be costly, because this team lacks outside shooting. I think they will slip down to 6th in this conference, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t have the power to give the Lakers a run for their money in the first round. But this team lacks depth and perimeter playmakers, and I think that this will be their downfall in the end. I do hope this team succeeds though, I like them a lot and they are a tough out.

7. Utah Jazz: 47-35

The Utah Jazz snuck into the playoffs as the eight seed last year and are an even better team this year. Mo Williams and Gordon Hayward are two underrated guards on a team with a loaded backcourt. The acquired Marvin Williams from Atlanta, who might be refreshed by a change of scenery. Utah sports multiple big men, with the young Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter as backups to starters Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson. There are rumors that one of those men will be subjects of trade talks, and if that is the case I think Millsap would be the one to go, to make room for Derrick Favors. This team could rise up the ranks even more depending on how the guards play. This is a hard-nosed team that should not be overlooked going into this season. The development of Hayward is the key for this team. At SG, he could potentially go 15-5-4. Don’t sleep on the Jazz.

8. Phoenix Suns: 44-38

I am not picking the Suns to make the playoffs just because they are my favorite team. The loss of Steve Nash is going to sting, and now Phoenix is left without a star on the roster. However, I think the collection of talent will be enough to vault them into the eight spot. Like in the Eastern Conference, the battle for the last spot will be heated, but I see too many flaws with teams like Dallas, Golden State, Minnesota, etc. to put them in. Phoenix will still play at a fast place and will be headed by a returning fan favorite, Goran Dragic. Dragic learned under Nash when he first came in the league, and I think he will be more than able to lead this team. On the wings, the Suns have brought in Wesley Johnson and Michael Beasley, and have Shannon Brown and Jared Dudley as backups. Luis Scola and Marcin Gortat will be the starting big men for this team, who can both put up 16 points per game. Markieff Morris and Jermaine O’Neal are the backup big men. This is a group of role players that I think will be able to step up and play well together. Ego will not be an issue. This team is deep and can run with anyone, and I think they will surprise a lot of people and make it to the playoffs.

9. Golden State Warriors: 42-40

This will be an exciting team if they can stay healthy. If Andrew Bogut comes back strong, he will provide the strong interior defense that this team has lacked for a long time. Stephen Curry and David Lee are the two returning starters who can both score very well. With the trade of Monta Ellis, the starting shooting guard job belongs to Klay Thompson, who is a favorite for Most Improved Player. Rookie Harrison Barnes will be the SF, and he is another man who can make it rain from the outside. This team will just miss making the playoffs, but they are improving. NEEDS DEFENSE.

10. Dallas Mavericks: 41-41

This Dallas Mavericks team will be the Phillies of basketball: a team coming off a recent championship that still has talent but is facing a major drop-off out of the playoffs. The only star on this team is Dirk, but he just had surgery and will probably not be the same this year. OJ Mayo can provide outside shooting, but this team resembles nothing of the team who won it all just two years ago. I have them missing the playoffs. They missed out on the Howard and D-Will sweepstakes, and now they are waiting to use their cap money after this year. But Dirk isn’t getting any younger; this team is in danger.

11. Minnesota Timberwolves: 39-43

And the award for fewest black people on an NBA roster goes to...Minnesota! Ricky Rubio is still hurt, and now Kevin Love is going to miss some time. They are relying on a knee-less Brandon Roy, a Russian past his prime (Kirilenko), and former top pick Derrick Williams. Injuries will cost this team the playoffs this year, but by this time next year they should be ready to go to make a postseason push.

12. New Orleans Hornets: 36-46

This team is close to breaking through; I think they are a small forward away from having a complete starting five and if they get one, they could make the playoffs as soon as next year. Austin Rivers is an exciting young guard, and we all know what The Brow can do in the middle. Ryan Anderson is a big man who can drill three’s, and the health of Eric Gordon is vital. Not yet, New Orleans...but your future is bright.

13. Portland Trail Blazers: 33-49

LaMarcus Aldridge deserves better than this. Portland’s success this year depends on how fast their two top draft picks become studs. Damian Lillard and Meyers Leonard are starting at PG and C respectively, and if they can prove themselves quickly then this team will be better than 13th in the West. Wesley Matthews is a shooting guard who has a limited ceiling: about 15 points per game, lots of 3s, and not many contributions in other stat categories. Nicolas Batum is going to have to play big at SF. This team is young like New Orleans, and it will be interesting to see who’s team grows faster.

14. Houston Rockets: 30-52

The Rockets have a boatload of depth, but none of it is really good. The best player on this team is Jeremy Lin, and we’ll see how the NBA reacts to him now that they have tape to look at. Houston is full of first round picks, but none of them right now are starting-caliber. Omer Asik has never been a starter but is a very good interior defender, but overall this team looks like a jumbled mess.

15. Sacramento Kings: 28-54

Sigh. It’s tough to be a Kings fan. The roster isn’t even as bad as it seems even though they lose every year, but something about this team just isn’t right. Maybe it’s the ownership, or coaching, and obviously a lot of blame has to go to the players, but this team has potential every year and just can’t play up to it. DeMarcus Cousins can become one of the best big men in the NBA, but is undisciplined. Isaiah Thomas will be the starting point guard, and perhaps can provide a spark, but this team overall just looks bad. It’s that simple. They are the worst team in the Western Conference.

So there’s my Western Conference standings. Before the season, I’ll do my full preview including playoff predictions, awards, and breakout players.