2012 MLB Playoff Predictions

2012 MLB Playoff Predictions

October baseball is arguably the best month of one sport that we have in America, along with March Madness for college basketball and the four weeks of playoff football. It is the climax of America’s pastime, when one team will rise up and win a gauntlet of short series to reach the ultimate goal of winning the World Series. Baseball is truly a game of inches and in the randomness and chaos of playoff baseball, nothing is truly surprising. Sure, there are miraculous individual performances and unlikely comebacks, but in baseball there is never a sure thing, and we would not be surprised if any of these ten teams would go on to win the World Series. After all, last year’s Cardinals were dead to rights after August but got hot, made the playoffs in Game 162, and the rest is history. This year there are two teams with magic on their side: the Baltimore Orioles and the Oakland Athletics. We’ll see if either of these franchises will shock the world. My preseason predictions on playoff teams were pretty respectable in my opinion. I nailed four of the six division winners (Yankees, Tigers, Reds, and Giants), with the two I got wrong both winning wild cards and making the playoffs anyway (Rangers, Braves). My ALCS and NLCS picks were Yankees over Tigers and Giants over Braves, respectively. All these teams made the playoffs and with how the match-ups are set up, both of these scenarios can still happen. I am going to keep my preseason World Series pick the same, but I’ll get to that later. October is simply a magical month for baseball fans, when heroes are born and history is written. There will be screams, cheers, curses, tears, excitement, devastation, and finally, the thrill of being crowned champions of the world. And of course, if we’re lucky, we will get to experience the two most intriguing words in all of sports: Game Seven. So, without further ado, here are my picks for the 2012 Major League Baseball playoffs. It’s impossible to predict, but I’ll do my best.

American League Wild Card Game: BAL vs TEX

This is an incredibly interesting game for many reasons. It’s the classic David vs Goliath story, except with the drama of a one-game loser-goes-home setting. The Orioles are the team with fate and destiny on their side; they just completed their first winning season since 1997 and did so without any true stars. Everyone kept waiting for this team to fall back to Earth, but they just kept winning, to the tune of a 93-69 record. Meanwhile, the Rangers have been the AL representative in the World Series in each of the last two seasons but have nothing to show for it. They controlled the AL West all season long, and spectacularly found a way to choke it away on the last day of the season, putting themselves in this win-or-go-home setting. Experience and talent are both on Texas’s side. But momentum and a sense of fate favor the O’s. All the pressure is on the Rangers while the Orioles are young, confident, and ready to fly. So I’m going to go against conventional wisdom in this one and call the upset. Baltimore 6, Texas 4. Jim Johnson nails down the save, and the O’s get a date with the mighty Yankees.

National League Wild Card Game: STL vs ATL

This is a revenge game for the Braves. They faltered down the stretch of 2011 and had their wild card spot stolen from them by the Cardinals, who promptly went on to win the World Series. If last year’s rules were still in place, the Braves would already be in with no worries; but with the rule change, they still have to win one game to officially make the NLDS, and who do they have to play? That’s right, St. Louis. The Cards are incredibly good in games like this and have the experience to stay calm and prepared. Kyle Lohse is a big game pitcher and even though St. Louis lost their best player and their manager this offseason, they have not missed a beat. Meanwhile, the Braves send out Kris Medlen, and his record 23 straight starts without a loss for Atlanta. Can this streak hold up? Atlanta seems to have a clear advantage in this game; they were a better team all season long, have dominant pitching, and a good-enough offense. But the Cardinals know how to win when they have to, and they can get big hits with runners in scoring position, they make the right fundamental plays, and they do not beat themselves. With all that said...I’m going with the Braves. While the Cards have surprised me this year, I had the Braves winning the NL East and being in the NLCS and I do not think that their time to be knocked out is here. They will not let St. Louis beat them two years in a row. At least I hope not. I’m putting my money on Atlanta to close this deal at home, with Kimbrel closing the door on the Cardinals. I’ve got a pitcher’s duel in this one, with Jason Heyward coming through with a big hit late. But how great would it be if the big hit was made by Chipper? It will be St. Louis 3, Atlanta 5. Max. Could be 3-2 as well. But the Braves win a close one and will advance to play their division rival, the Washington Nationals.

ALDS - NYY vs BAL:

While I love the new wild card rule, I do not understand the new home-field playoff format in the Division Series, with the 2-3 format. Why should the better team during the season play the first two games on the road and risk going down 0-2? The one compliment I will give to it is that it makes sure that if an underdog is going to win the Division Series, they have to close out on the road, no matter what. We’ll see how it plays out. Anyway, this match-up is great because these two teams battled down the stretch for the AL East crown, and the Yankees won that race. Now, Baltimore gets another chance not only to beat the Yankees, but to send them home and get that much closer to the World Series. It’s one of those “lose the battle but win the war” kind of things. New York, obviously, prides itself on the long ball, which becomes less of a factor in October because of the cold weather and better pitching. Are the Orioles’ pitchers good enough to tame the Yankee bats? Baltimore does have a distinct advantage in one area: getting big hits. The O’s were a miraculous 29-9 in one-run games this season, which seems impossible and somewhat flukey, but it shows that they are able to win tough, close games. They also won 16 straight extra-inning games this year, so the Yankees better close this team out in 9. New York, meanwhile, is absolutely dreadful in clutch situations, outside of Derek Jeter and Raul Ibanez. Going down the line-up, everyone sucked this year in big moments: Swisher, A-Rod, Teixeira, Granderson, Martin...who do you trust? As a lifelong Yankee fan, I’ll answer that question for you...no one. You close your eyes and pray to whatever you believe in. In order to win the World Series this year, the Yankees are going to have to win close games and get clutch hits when they matter most. Which means that I have all the expectations of winning but zero confidence. This series would be a dog fight from beginning to end, with teams scratching and clawing for any advantage they can get. However, when it’s all said and done, I feel that the Yankees will just be too much for Baltimore to handle. They had a fantastic season and exceeded all expectations, but the time has come for them to bow out, because they just don’t have the talent to compete with the Evil Empire in a playoff series. I’ll take the Yankees to advance in 4 games.

ALDS - OAK vs DET:

I think everyone outside of the Motor City wants the A’s to win this series. They are a classic underdog, even more so than the O’s. This team starts 5 rookie pitchers and have no dominant offensive players outside Cuban Yoenis Cespedes. Yet somehow they won the AL West over the mighty Rangers and Angels and have three home games against Detroit. Whoever wins Game One will win this series. I think Oakland needs to win one game in Detroit, and if they can steal Game One on the road against Verlander, then they will demoralize this Tigers team. However, I don’t see it. The A’s don’t have the firepower, and I think Miguel Cabrera is good enough to power the Tigers through this series. It will be a great test for the Athletics to see if they truly belong as an elite team in 2012. As much as I would love for this team to win, I don’t think they have it in the tank. I think a lot of their emotional energy went into topping the Rangers. However, there is no doubt that they are hot, and I think this series will go the distance. Final verdict: Tigers advance in 5 games and use Verlander in the close-out game, meaning that he will not be ready to go for the beginning of the ALCS against the Yanks.

NLDS - ATL vs WAS:

Shutting down Strasburg is going to backfire. The Nationals have put up an extraordinary 2012 campaign, jumping from the gutter to the best record in all of baseball. The Braves will win the first two games at home before the Nats know what happened. Washington takes Game Three but it’s too little too late. I think that the Atlanta pitchers will perform better than Washington’s because the Braves are simply on a mission to be great this year, while Washington is still very young and I don’t think they are as hungry as the Braves will be in this series. No disrespect to the Nationals, who I think are the frontrunners to win the division again next year, but I just think that they will be outplayed by a veteran, more determined team. I’ll take the over on 1.5 rampage outbursts by Bryce Harper in this series. I’m just not sold yet on this team, especially not with Strasburg spearheading that rotation. Atlanta advances in 4.

NLDS - CIN vs SF:

How is it that this series seems to not be talked about even though it is probably the most even and competitive match-up out of the four? I think that this series has to go 5 games. These teams are just that good. The pitching edge has to go to San Francisco, especially if they can get contributions from Lincecum and Zito. Even with Melky being suspended, the Giant offense has still been productive, with players like Pence, Scutaro, Posey of course, and the Panda (who would definitely be on an all-sports nickname team). The Reds were quietly only one game behind the Nationals for best record in the major leagues, even with Joey Votto missing extended time. This team has the leadership and the poise to make a run deep into this playoffs. I would have had them beating Washington if that was the match-up. I really like this team but I picked the Giants to make the World Series this season and I’m not backing down. I have Matt Cain winning Game 5 on the road for San Francisco to advance.

ALCS - DET vs NYY:

This is a match-up of superstars: Verlander, Cabrera, and Fielder facing Sabathia, Jeter, and Cano. The Yankees line-up is deeper than Detroit’s is top to bottom, and I think their rotation is as well. New York just has a superior roster to Detroit, but the game isn’t played on paper. I thought the same thing last year when these two teams faced off in the ALDS, but the Tigers were able to win a Game 5 in Yankee Stadium. That scares me. But I have the Yankees win. They will not be defeated twice by the Tigers. Again, the fate of the Yankees in these playoffs depends on their situational hitting. They have not gotten the job done this year. If New York can make the winning plays and get clutch hits along with their usual power and pitching ability, they will walk to the title. But if they keep continuing their trend of coming up short in those situations, then they will fall short of their goal. I think the comeback of Brett Gardner and the trade for Ichiro will be huge for them in this series; it gives them an element of speed that they have lacked for so long. This series goes 6 games. The Yanks will lead 3-2, and they won’t let this series get to 7 games. Because they have a very good chance of losing a Game 7. The New York Yankees will get enough clutch hits to get by, and advance to another World Series, where they are usually dominant. I picked the Tigers before the year to have the best record in baseball during the regular season so I have high regard for them. But October is when champions are born, or in the Yankees’ case, when they return. The Bombers will have fire in their eyes, and will not settle for losing, because the Bronx is starving for another championship. It’s been three years for heaven’s sake! 6 games for this series, and the Yankees are going back to the promised land.

NLCS - ATL vs SF:

My preseason pick for this series was an old-fashioned 7 game war, and I’m sticking with that. Both these teams sport great pitching and underrated offenses. The tipping point of this series will be the postseason experience for the Giants from winning the World Series two years ago, coupled with the fact that Game 7 would be in San Francisco. I think that this is the postseason of Matt Cain, and he will be dominant. I liked the Braves this year to get to this point, but all great things have to come to an end, meaning their season along with the Hall of Fame career of Chipper Jones. I think the Atlanta hitters will struggle in this series, and the Giants hitters will get the job done when it counts. There will be no easy wins in this series, and I expect a lot of hard-fought 4-3 type of games. This battle will go the distance, but the San Francisco soldiers will stand victorious on their way to their second World Series in three years.

World Series - NYY vs SF:

Here we go! There’s nothing like watching the Fall Classic, especially if your favorite team is involved. What could be better than eating hot dogs and wings, etc. with friends and family wondering if your team will be crowned champion? I’ll tell you what: not having to listen to the droning of Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, but that’s first world problems for you. This series is a battle of two different dynamics: The power of the Yankees against the pitching and manufacturing offense of the Giants. Unfortunately for me, the style of San Francisco tends to win more titles than just trying to out-muscle your opponent, because pitching wins championships. Also unfortunately, the National League won the All-Star Game this year, so the Giants will have home-field advantage, meaning that the middle three games in the Bronx are crucial. However, the last time the Yankees were in the World Series and did not have home-field advantage, what resulted was my favorite moments in sports history. If you’ve never seen the clips of the 2001 Games 4 and 5, find them. However, New York did lose that series, but this time they will not have to face Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson twice. My preseason pick was the Yankees over the Giants in 6 games, which would be awesome, except that we wouldn’t be able to win in front of the greatest fans in the world at home. So I’m sticking with that pick. New York will get their heads out of their asses in crunch time and step up. If Curtis Granderson can get one clutch hit I will be so happy. But really, did you expect I wouldn’t pick my Yankees? Some say I’m unbiased, but when your team is in the playoffs every year but one since 1995, I’d say they have a pretty good chance of winning every year, so it justifies me picking them. In what has already been a wild season, the playoffs will end how they are supposed to end: with the New York Yankees storming the field and lifting the championship trophy above their heads with World Series Championship number 28. Enjoy the playoffs everyone. I live for this.