2013 NFL Week 4 Preview

Week 4 Preview

Well what do you know, I had another HUGE week! Week 3 brought me ELEVEN correct picks with the point spread, which I think is the best performance of the last two seasons. I had a plethora of great predictions, with my winners including the Browns, Ravens, Dolphins, Seahawks (by 20!!!), Colts, and Titans by exactly three. The biggest shocker of the weekend, however, came on the opposite side of the spectrum. As my lock of the week, I picked the Giants to win big over the Carolina Panthers, a prediction that really could not go any worse. The G-Men was such an obvious pick; how could the two-time Super Bowl Champion New York Giants fall to 0-3? They always seem to bounce back and surprise us just when we think they are dead, right? It just wasn’t meant to be on Sunday, and Cam Newton and the Panthers completely dropped the hammer on Big Blue 38-0, with the vaunted front seven of Carolina sacking Eli Manning six times in the first half. The Panthers, meanwhile, are two blown fourth quarters away from 3-0, and the Giants have been dominated three times. They go on to Kansas City to face the undefeated Chiefs this Sunday, and by September’s end it is very possible that we might see the mighty Giants at 0-4. On to the slate for Week 4...hopefully I can have my first ever three-week stretch of double digit wins! But first a quick non-football note: I am as big a Yankee fan there is in this world, and with all the emotions of the last week, you can bet that there will be a giant Yankees piece sometime in the next week. Keep an eye out for that, it will be worth it.

SF vs STL (+3.5) - The Thursday games are always sloppy, which is really unfortunate because this is such a major turning point game in the scope of the NFC, and especially the West division. After a shocking beatdown at the hands of the Colts at home, the 49ers have been destroyed for two weeks in a row. They now have to play on a short week against their division rival St. Louis Rams who is not only really underrated at home, but did not lose to San Francisco in 2012! Remember, the Rams were 1-0-1 against the Niners last season, and San Fran might really be in trouble. Kaepernick has looked lost ever since his initial explosion against the Packers, while Frank Gore and Anquan Boldin have been taken away. Their defense hasn’t been elite either since the end of last season, and now Patrick Willis is banged up while stud pass rusher Aldon Smith has been checked into rehab and may miss up to a month, reportedly. St. Louis has more weapons on offense, and while they have really fallen behind early in all three games this season, maybe this is the time that they put a full game together. Thursday night games are crazy, and while 3.5 points isn’t a large enough margin to be considered an upset, I’m going for an outright win for the home underdog. Some quick praise, though, for Colin Kaepernick (I know, what???), even though it’s a couple of weeks after the fact: his line after the Green Bay game (“If intimidation is your game plan, I hope you have a better one”), was great. I loved it. It was confident but not cocky, and firm enough to send the message to Green Bay that they just got played. Unfortunately, they haven’t won since, and I think their losing streak continues. San Francisco 16, St. Louis 20

PIT vs MIN (+2.5) - Before you get surprised about how the Vikings are home underdogs against an equally putrid Pittsburgh team, keep in mind: this game will be played in London. I hate London games maybe even more than Thursday night games, and I am firmly opposed to moving a franchise out to England permanently. Both these teams stink; the Steelers aren’t right on either side of the ball, and the loss of Pouncey at center has really hurt. The Vikings, meanwhile, have let multiple games slip through their hands, the latest of which being a last-second home loss to the Cleveland Browns. I think that tells you all you need to know. The difference makers in this one: Adrian Peterson is the best player on the field, and Christian Ponder did have two rushing touchdowns last week against a good Browns defense. I don’t know. I’ll just think the Vikings are too good to be 0-4. Pittsburgh 20, Minnesota 24

BAL (-3) vs BUF - The Ravens are becoming the Giants, in terms of being the don’t-freak-out-over-one-game team of the NFL. People freaked out over their opening shellacking in Denver, and while they didn’t impress in a Week 2 win over Cleveland, they finally played a solid game against Houston last Sunday. They are now 2-1, and are entering a soft part of their schedule. Baltimore will be fine, but in order to compete at the next level, their offense still needs some improvement. Meanwhile, the Bills just look like a team that isn’t quite ready to take the next step, even though they’ve had some bright spots. EJ Manuel and linebacker Kiko Alonso are young players who have come in and look like they might be central parts of their respective sides of the ball for the next ten to twelve years in Western New York. But they couldn’t even beat the Jets who spotted them twenty (20!!!!) penalties, and their schedule only gets harder. Take the Ravens here, who should be able to pound the rock. Baltimore 27, Buffalo 14

CIN vs CLE (+4.5) - The Browns are playing some games with my heart. They let me down the first two weeks, traded Trent Richardson, and then boom! Enter Brian Hoyer, and Cleveland comes up with a big win on the road! Oh, and who are the guys I was really high before the season started? Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon! You’re welcome, everyone. Now obviously, the Browns still have a lot of holes; they have no running game, and maybe Brian Hoyer was a one-game wonder. But they are on the board in the win column, and if they can pull a big win out this week, they will be 2-2 and in second place in the North. I was lying last week! I never jumped off the bandwagon! UPSET ALERT BABY. Cincinnati 13, Cleveland 19

IND vs JAC (+9.5) - This is a classic perception line. The Colts, after starting the season with two home games which they barely escaped the Raiders and could not overtake the Dolphins, had their best win in the Andrew Luck era by thrashing the 49ers on the road as a double digit underdog. They will be taking on Jacksonville, coming off an embarrassing performance up in Seattle, which everyone expected. I don’t think Indy should be favored by almost double digits on the road against anyone, no matter how bad the team. Now, can they beat the lowly Jaguars by ten or more? Absolutely. But this smells like the sucker bet of the week. Don’t get caught up in the hype, although I do love me some Andrew Luck, who I’m starting on my (3-0) fantasy team this week. Colts move to 3-1, and Trent Richardson has a little more of an impact this week. Indianapolis 24, Jacksonville 16

SEA (-3) vs HOU - The Texans are who I thought they were: overrated. Their defense is pretty solid overall, but their offense is severely limited, and they can’t be trusted to beat a top team on the road. They really are lucky to not be 0-3, and now they have the Seahawks coming to town. It won’t be a blowout, but I think this game will be decisive. Look out for Marshawn Lynch! Seattle 23, Houston 9

ARI (+2.5) vs TB - What could have been for the Bucs if they had the right coach and quarterback...reports are that Tampa is benching Josh Freeman for rookie Mike Glennon, who, honestly, I really don’t know much about. The Bucs do have plenty of talent to go around, probably more than any other 0-3 team, but they have had dreadful QB play, and I think Schiano will be shown the door sooner rather than later. Glennon might be good, but Arizona has a pretty good team (Honey Badger in the third round is looking like a steal), and I think they come out of Tampa Bay with a win, pushing the Bucs to 0-4. Note: I did have Tampa in this game until they announced the quarterback switch. No hard feelings, Mike Glennon. Arizona 27, Tampa Bay 20

CHI vs DET (-2.5) - Big game for both teams. The Bears are 3-0, with two final-minute wins, and a decent win over Pittsburgh last Sunday night. They still really haven’t had a signature win, though, but they have an opportunity this week, on the road against a potentially really good Detroit Lions team. It will be the first great test for their suffocating defense, especially since Reggie Bush says he’ll be back this week. The Lions, meanwhile, are 2-1 and also searching for that first big time victory, and can establish themselves as legitimate contenders in a powerful NFC conference. I think they have enough spark on offense to defeat Chicago this week, as I just don’t see the Bears being 4-0. But a very big September matchup. Remember, Green Bay is sitting at 1-2 and on a bye this week, so a Bears win would give them two wins in the division, and a two and a half game lead over the Packers in the first month of the season! Chicago 17, Detroit 26

NYG vs KC (-5) - This one hurts me. I really thought the Giants would win last week and not only did they lose, but they were embarrassed. Now they have to go on the road to face a legit Kansas City Chiefs team, who has made a living so far dominating turnover margin. The Giants...turn the ball over a lot. Not a good matchup. Wrong team, wrong time for Big Blue. New York 17, Kansas City 24

NYJ (+4) vs TEN - Whoa! After this game, one of these teams is going to be 3-1 in a wide open AFC! And you know what? This Jets defense looks really good! I can’t believe what’s gotten into me! I’m going to make an exception on this half-point thing and go UPSET ALERT UP IN HERE. Geno Smith has looked, like, almost decent! Give me some of the Kool-Aid! New York 23, Tennessee 17

DAL (-2) vs SD - No idea how to go about this game. San Diego has been pretty good, but have blown two games in the fourth quarter now, while Dallas maybe has seemed good but overall has underwhelmed. DeMarco Murray was fantastic facing the Rams last week, but then again, that is the only team he is great against. I still think the overall talent of the Cowboys will be enough to get a nice road win. It seems like a perfect scenario for a Romo throwing for two touchdowns in the final eight minutes to steal a win kind of game. Dallas 27, San Diego 24

WAS (-3.5) vs OAK - I mean...they can’t be THAT bad, right? Season on the line for Washington. Washington 28, Oakland 17

PHI vs DEN (-11.5) - This seems like a huge line considering the Eagles can put up points in a hurry. But I’m going to ride the Broncos until someone proves me otherwise. I think this is going to be a perfect storm for Philly, but in a bad way, like they are walking into a full blown Sharknado. They will try to hurry up the game, only to go three and out, and give the ball to Peyton Manning, who will speed it up himself, and cause the Eagles defense to pass out at that speed and altitude. This is my blowout candidate for the week, and I think that the Broncos cover. I’d be shocked if they were held under 40. Philadelphia 19, Denver 41

NE vs ATL (-2.5) - The Pats are a fluky 3-0. Not that they didn’t deserve to win those games, but in no way have they seemed like a dominant team. They just had the fortune of playing three of the ten worst offenses in the league. Now they have to go down to Atlanta, a place where Matt Ryan seldom loses, to face a reeling Falcons team in need of a win. And I think they get it. New England 24, Atlanta 31

MIA vs NO (-6.5) - Congratulations to the Dolphins for being 3-0! They established themselves as a team to be taken seriously by taking down the Falcons last week with a touchdown in the final minute of play. The bad news: they are facing the Saints. In New Orleans. On a Monday Night. Throw in the fact that they will be without star pass rusher Cameron Wake, and those factors alone add up to more than a touchdown of disadvantages. I’ll take the Saints here with the points, even though I a) think that Miami is here to stay, and b) think that even at 4-0, the Saints will still be a tad overrated. But with Sean Payton back and an improved defense, they have to be sitting pretty in a disappointing NFC South. Miami 24, New Orleans 34

Lock of the Week: BAL (-3) vs BUF

Performance of the Week: Marshawn Lynch, and for some reason, Knowshon Moreno!

Surprise of the Week: FIVE underdogs winning STRAIGHT UP, Jaguars cover, Jets go to 3-1, 49ers fall to 1-3

2013 NFL Week 3 Preview

Week 3 Preview

Many years in the future when I am an old man and reevaluating my life, I will hang my head in shape when I remember that I picked the Cleveland Browns to make the playoffs this season. All the signs were there: new coaching regime, better talent, weak schedule, weak division and conference...all the while, I forgot one key axiom of life: God hates Cleveland. The Browns have started 0-2 this year, but it’s not like they got killed or anything; in both games (vs MIA, 2-0 and at BAL, Super Bowl Champs), they had a halftime lead! This includes shutting out the Ravens in the first half of their home opener this past Sunday. Unfortunately, the defense couldn’t lock down their opponents forever, and the offense was just dismal. Brandon Weeden was the one thing that he couldn’t be if this team wanted to be successful: Brandon Weeden. The suspension of Josh Gordon, their top wide out, really hurt this team, and I thought that with him returning this week at Minnesota, Cleveland would have a chance for their first win by putting up some actual points on the board. However, Brandon Weeden is hurt and the Browns are turning to Brian Hoyer, who, if my memory serves me right, was an OK QB at Michigan State. They still had a chance to salvage the season (remember, the first place teams in the AFC North are only 1-1), until the breaking news came out yesterday: the Cleveland Browns have traded RB Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2014 first round pick. WHAT??!?!?!1??//1? This is essentially giving up on the season two games in. With a solid defense and two close losses. Cleveland traded up to draft Richardson only a year ago! How are you going to trade him now, just 18 games into his professional career, with his level of talent and potential? They have completely sold out on the 2o13 campaign, and left suckers like me (and their 24 fans) who picked them as a playoff team out to dry. What a disaster of a prediction that was for me this year. Sorry about that, everyone. I’m really disappointed in you, Cleveland. Now, this trade might be beneficial in the long run, as they shed his salary and now have multiple first rounders next year, the first of which needs to be used on a new franchise quarterback. In the meantime, this will be another terrible year for the Browns and their fans, as they have lost what little firepower they had on offense. They are looking like they will have a top three pick in the 2014 draft.

As far as Week 2 is concerned, I actually had a really great week with my picks, nailing 10 out of 16 games with the spread. Two other games could have easily swung in my favor (Carolina, Kansas City), which would have really made me look good, but I’m happy about the bounce back. Since I spent so much time talking about the Browns, I’ll give some quick thoughts on all the other teams while I pick the games for Week 3.

KC vs PHI (-3.5) - The Chiefs notched an impressive win last week against Dallas to improve to 2-0. Meanwhile, the Eagles were shocked at home by the Chargers 33-30 to receive their first loss, and proving to the world that Chip Kelly’s offense will not be able to outscore everyone. Andy Reid makes his return to Philly with the Chiefs and their very stout defense, but I think that the Eagles will rebound and get a nice win over a quality opponent at home on a short week. Not as high-scoring as you might think though, as these dreaded Thursday games are always sloppy. Kansas City 17, Philadelphia 24

SD vs TEN (-3) - Not sure where to go with this one, because I thought both of these teams would stink, but they have pleasantly surprised over the first two weeks. In fact, each of them should be 2-0, except that they both blew late fourth quarter leads to the lucky Houston Texans! The Titans are favored by three because they are at home, and I think that they will win by exactly that, aided by at least one defensive touchdown. By the way: Holy crap, Philip Rivers! He must have taken a lot of Secret Stuff this offseason. Shout outs to whoever understands that reference. San Diego 21, Tennessee 24

CLE (+6.5) vs MIN - I know. I’m going down with the ship, though. Maybe there’s some Brian Hoyer magic! Look, the Vikings are at home and should win this game. I’m still grabbing the points, though. Minnesota is 0-2 as well, and even though the Browns stink, their defense is legit. Christian Ponder will not break 200 yards passing and will have at least two turnovers, but Adrian Peterson is by far the best player in this game, and he will do enough to secure a Vikings victory. Cleveland 13, Minnesota 16

TB (+7) vs NE - Here’s the thing about these two teams. The Bucs are 0-2, and have a world of turmoil internally, but they really should be 2-0. They blew the Jets game Week 1 because of that idiotic penalty to set up the field goal. Last week, they held Drew Brees and the Saints to 13 points, were up 14-13 in the fourth, and missed the field goal that would have put them up 17-13. Instead, Brees gets the ball back with one minute left and no timeouts, and three plays later, New Orleans is lining up and making the game winning field goal to come out on top, 16-14. This is two games in a row that the Bucs have blown in the final seconds. It’s amazing. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 2-0, but they should be 0-2! They have been outplayed in both games this year, which were against the Bills and the Jets, two teams they have perennially used as doormats. The loss of their offensive stars has really hurt, and the only reason they beat the Jets last week is because Geno Smith threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter alone, when they were only down by three the whole time. Now they face Tampa Bay at home, and it doesn’t take a genius to predict what’s going to happen here: it’s going to be close throughout, and at the end of the game the Bucs are going to make a boneheaded play and the Pats are going to escape. Tampa Bay 20, New England 23

HOU vs BAL (+2.5) - This is a battle of two second-tier AFC powers. Houston spoiled their opportunity to take the conference last year, ruining an 11-1 start to fall out of a bye, and having their season end predictably in a second round loss to New England. Arian Foster is not himself, nor has the defense been an a-plus unit. The Texans are 2-0, but should be 0-2 barring two miracle comebacks to beat the terrors that are San Diego and Tennessee. After this Trent Richardson trade, I believe that the Colts are now the top team in the AFC South. The Ravens, meanwhile, got blown out by Denver and edged out Cleveland in their low-scoring home opener. Neither team has been impressive so far this year. The X-factor for me in this game? Bernard Pierce. Houston 20, Baltimore 24

STL vs DAL (-4.5) - I have no idea where to go with this pick. The Rams are competitive, but they have fallen behind big in their first two games. They also have given up a lot of yards to opposing wide receivers this year, which has Dez Bryant rubbing his hands together. It’s time for Dallas to play a complete game. St. Louis 13, Dallas 27

ARI vs NO (-7.5) - The Saints, like the Texans, are another team that could easily be 0-2. They escaped their opener against Atlanta after the Falcons had first and goal from the seven and couldn’t punch it in. Last week, Tampa Bay had them dead to rights until they predictably choked again in the final minute, giving the Saints a two-point victory. But I think they win this one more convincingly, and a banged up Larry Fitzgerald doesn’t help Arizona’s cause. The Cardinals have a good enough D to stay in this one, but I think the Saints take care of business. Arizona 20, New Orleans 30

DET (+2) vs WAS - The Redskins cannot stop anyone in the first half. Now, enter Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and (maybe) Reggie Bush. Maybe Washington has one of those desperation can’t-be-0-and-3 games, but I’ll believe in this defense when I see them stop anyone. I’ll take the Lions straight up, even on the road. Detroit 31, Washington 20

GB (-3) vs CIN - Before the season, I picked the Bengals to win this game with their ferocious defensive line. Now I’m going back on that, just because the Packers have looked unstoppable on offense. If the line was around four or five, I would take Cincy and the points, but I think that the Packers are clicking, and I’ll take Aaron Rodgers by a field goal. Close game, and Rodgers will be punished, but he’ll make enough plays outside the pocket to hold on. Green Bay 24, Cincinnati 21

NYG (PK) vs CAR - This is a pick’em game (PK), meaning that the Giants are a little bit favored because the Panthers don’t have the standard couple of points for being at home. I picked Carolina to make the playoffs this season, and even though it’s only two games in, I’m out on them. After two such games this season, we’re now at 2-14 for the Panthers in the Cam-Ron Rivera era. They should have beat Seattle, and they should have beat Buffalo. At some point, you have to make a change. Both of these teams are 0-2, but only one of them has the kick in them to bounce back when times get rough, and the Giants are going to come into Carolina and burn in to the ground. 400 yards for Eli and a couple of touchdowns to go with it, while the Panthers will be 0-3 and hopefully fire Ron Rivera during their Week 4 bye. Then maybe they will actually open the playbook for their best offensive weapon and let Cam make plays! Go with the Giants here. New York 34, Carolina 21

ATL vs MIA (-2) - The entire NFC South has been really underwhelming this year. The Falcons have not looked impressive at all, and now are dealing with an injured Steven Jackson, banged up wide outs, and some major injuries on defense. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have beaten the two teams I thought would secure both Wild Card spots, and have done so on the road. These are two teams heading in different directions right now. Atlanta 20, Miami 23

IND (+10.5) vs SF - The Niners will be pissed off after their no-show beat down up in Seattle last weekend. Their front seven is going to terrorize the Indy offensive line, which is already below par. But the Colts are double digit underdogs? They were a playoff team last year, and now they have Trent Richardson! Besides, even if Indy falls behind that much, Andrew Luck has the ability to chuck the ball around and score some garbage time touchdowns. Give me the points here. Indianapolis 24, San Francisco 30

JAC vs SEA (-20) - Yeah. 20 points. And you know what? I’m taking them. Because it’s hysterical. But honestly, how are the Jaguars supposed to score? Did you hear that the people of Seattle set a world record for loudest crowd noise generated at a sporting event, ever? This is the worst team in the league, going to the craziest stadium in the league, to take on the best of the best. The NFC teams better not let Seattle get home field for the playoffs, because it is a hellhole up there for opposing teams. Jacksonville 6, Seattle 31

BUF (+2.5) vs NYJ - I like EJ Manuel a hell of a lot more than Geno Smith. Did you see him master that game-winning touchdown drive against Carolina like a pro? He is cool, calm, and collected, and the Jets...aren’t. Buffalo 20, New York 16

CHI (-2.5) vs PIT - Maybe if the Steelers were healthy, they could take on the physical Bears. But they can’t in their current state. It’s going to be a long year in the Steel City. The Bears are off to a nice start, but remember, they were 7-1 last year and didn’t even make the playoffs. Don’t buy their stock yet. Chicago 23, Pittsburgh 10

OAK vs DEN (-16) - Another 40 points up for Denver. Oakland 13, Denver 41

Lock of the Week: I was dead on in Week 2...this time I’m saying NYG (PK)

Performance of the Week: All in on Eli Manning, and I like Bernard Pierce

Surprise of the Week: Even though they are favored, I think the Dolphins will establish themselves by beating a true contender (ATL) to get to 3-0. I think that counts as a surprise.

2013 NFL Week 2 Preview

Week 2 Preview

Before I make my picks for Week 2, I need to start by making a couple of apologies. First, to the New York Jets, who I picked to go 1-15 and get slaughtered on Sunday. I will say that they can still finish 1-15, and that they were incredibly lucky to beat the Bucs this past Sunday because of an idiotic play. However, they were able to stay in the game the whole afternoon, and took advantage of the break they got. The Jets are now 1-0, and I will give them credit for that. More on them later. Next, to the four people reading this. I don’t know if it was rust, or poor judgment, but I really made awful picks last week. I only nailed 5 out of 16 games last week, and missed on both my “locks”. In fairness, though, many games almost fell in my favor. On opening night, I had Baltimore with the points, and they were WINNING at halftime, but then Peyton Manning did his Peyton Manning thing; PIT and TB (my two locks), each just collapsed offensively in amazing fashion; ATL and CLE each had leads well into the game and just fell apart towards the end. Additionally, out of my four upset picks, I only correctly called one of them. I cannot defend the Jacksonville pick, but Carolina and Green Bay had LEADS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER before losing in the end (and, of course, they couldn’t even hold on to cover). On a more positive note, my two best picks of the week were Oakland to cover against Indy (they almost won straight up!), and the Eagles to upset the Redskins. Out of all my upset picks, I said that the one I was most confident in was Philly over Washington, and that first half they played was the most dominant performance by any team in any half (offensively AND defensively) all weekend, including Denver’s second half last Thursday. I was happy about that one, but I had little else to smile about the rest of the week. So without further ado, here are my Week 2 picks, which you can trust, because there’s nowhere to go but up.

NYJ (+11.5) vs NE - As I said, I am shocked that the Jets beat Tampa Bay on Sunday. Geno Smith was not great, but he was not bad either, and for a first start, he was relatively solid. There is a little bit of promise here, even though I still don’t think he is good as EJ Manuel up in Buffalo. The Pats, meanwhile, barely escaped Buffalo with a win last week, needing a miracle drive from Brady when he completed all those just-enough-to-move-the-chains third down conversions to Danny Amendola. The Bills only needed one stop on that final drive, and couldn’t get it. Now for tonight, it looks like Amendola will be out, and Vareen will be out a long time. Who does New England have left? Edelman, Thompkins, and a reeling Stevan Ridley? Throw in the fact that the Jets defense looks very solid, and I think that this game will be down to one possession, unless Geno implodes and throws four picks. This line is way too high for a Patriots team who might have trouble scoring, although I still think that they get the job done, barely (again), at home. Look out--the Jets have a shot! New York 16, New England 20

SD (+8) vs PHI - Talk about making an entrance! That’s what Chip Kelly and his new-look rapid fire Eagles did on Monday Night against the Redskins, scoring 33 points in just over one half of football. They did, however, burn out a bit toward the end of the game, perhaps just because they were so far in front. Meanwhile, in the “other” Monday Night game, the Chargers jumped out to a 28-7 lead over the mighty Texans. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what happened next. After 24 unanswered points, Houston rallied for a 31-28 victory. New coach, same choke routine. However, I think the Chargers can keep it close this week. The Eagles will be very riled up, playing at home for the first time, and I think they will turn the ball over three times. However, they will force at least two of their own, and still win by a touchdown. As far as the spread, though, I’m taking San Diego and the points. San Diego 20, Philadelphia 27

CLE (+7) vs BAL - So Cleveland was very underwhelming on Sunday. I know. I said they would be good unless Brandon Weeden was still Brandon Weeden. He threw three picks in the first half. The pass-run play distribution was like 55-15, which is a recipe for disaster. However, the defense played well for most of the game (the Browns led at halftime), and they get Mingo in the lineup this week. Cleveland will also improve when Josh Gordon comes back from suspension Week 3. The Ravens are a better team than Cleveland, but they aren’t explosive. Definitely give me the Browns with the points. The bigger question is who wins this game straight up. Baltimore should win, but before the season I had CLE in this game, and if I’m right about them making the playoffs, they need to win this game. So I won’t call an Upset Alert on this game, but I’m picking the Browns. No confidence in that pick, but I have a good amount in taking them with the points. And look at the bright side for my Cleveland playoffs pick: they are still tied for first place in the AFC North! Cleveland 17, Baltimore 13

TEN (+9.5) vs HOU - I think that the Titans’ dominating performance over Pittsburgh was a bit of a fluke. However, I think that when Houston fell down three touchdowns to San Diego, that was not so much a fluke, either. The Titans won’t score a lot of points, but I don’t think the Texans will either. Also, what’s up with Arian Foster? He can’t be burned out already, can he? Close game. Tennessee 9, Houston 17

MIA vs IND (-3) - Finally taking a favorite this week! The Colts slumped to a victory over Oakland at home, while the Dolphins pulled out a win against Cleveland. One of these teams is going to be 2-0 with an inside track to the playoffs. And when it comes down to it, I’ll take Andrew Luck all day over Ryan Tannehill, who seems destined to always be one of those middle-of-the-pack guys like Cutler or Alex Smith. Miami 17, Indianapolis 24

CAR (-3) vs BUF - I don’t know where to go with this game. I like each of these teams, but one of them will be 0-2 by the end of Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams let fourth quarter leads slip away at home against superior teams last week, failing to capitalize on rare opportunities. I like Cam and EJ Manuel, and the fact that Carolina is favored by three on the road really scares me. However, I’m going to take the Panthers anyway. I have Carolina in the playoffs, and they won’t make it if they start out 0-2. Their front seven looked terrific last week against Seattle, and I think they will be able to overpower Buffalo and contain CJ Spiller. Carolina 27, Buffalo 21

STL (+7) vs ATL - The Rams really impressed in the fourth quarter last week by coming back from 11 down to Arizona and winning in the final minute. The Falcons, meanwhile, really let me down. I really thought they were going to beat the Saints. They only scored 17 points against statistically, the WORST DEFENSE IN NFL HISTORY LAST YEAR (by yardage). Atlanta ended last season by coming up short in the red zone against San Francisco last year in the NFC Championship Game. Just when you think they will take the next step, they had first and goal at the seven yard line with a minute left in the game, down six. They had four shots to get in the end zone from seven yards away, with Julio Jones, Steven Jackson, Tony Gonzalez, and the ghost of Roddy White, against a terrible defense. And they got stalled. It’s inexcusable. The only reason I have them winning this game against the Rams is because they are at home. Otherwise, this game has a lot of upset feel about it. Give me these seven points, because unless the Falcons really bust out like they couldn’t last week, it will be a close game. St. Louis 20, Atlanta 24

WAS vs GB (-7.5) - I think that 7.5 points is an incredibly high line for a team facing RGIII, but I have a feeling that they will be able to cover this spread. Washington really underwhelmed on Monday Night in Griffin’s return, and looked utterly overmatched in that first half. Don’t get fooled by the second half comeback; the Eagles were playing soft defense because they had this game well in hand. Now they have to go up to Lambeau for Green Bay’s home opener with a pissed off Aaron Rodgers. There’s no way they score less than 30. The only thing I’m scared about is that Washington gets a late garbage time TD to get within seven points, like they did against the Eagles last week. I’ll take my chances. Washington 20, Green Bay 34

DAL vs KC (-3) - I don’t know if I should be impressed with the Cowboys; performance from last week (forced 6 turnovers), or unimpressed (they only won by 5). After being given a huge lead, Dallas could not put the Giants away, and before that last pick-6 to ice the game, it sure looked like Eli (with 3 minutes left, down 6, ball at the 45) was going to go down and score the miracle winning touchdown. Meanwhile, if the Chiefs looked dominant, but it was against the Jaguars, was it really a dominant showing? I think they are good but not great. I had the Chiefs winning this game before the season, and I’m sticking with it now. With a banged up Dez, the Cowboys will struggle to find the end zone, and the Chiefs will win a tight game with a lot of field goals. Dallas 19, Kansas City 23

MIN (+6.5) vs CHI - Christian Ponder is terrible; the Chicago D is not. And it’s really that simple. However, the NFC North games are always close, and it’s tough to trash a team with Adrian Peterson lining up in the backfield. Last week, when Detroit stacked the box to stop AD, Ponder was atrocious and could not make the Lions pay. The Bears probably won’t even have to play eight men in to contain Peterson. I’m just uncomfortable taking the Bears in any scenario to outscore a team by a touchdown. Another close game that the favorite wins, but the underdog covers. At least one defensive TD for the Bears. Minnesota 22, Chicago 27

NO vs TB (+4) - I’m taking one more chance on the Buccaneers, the team I was really high on two months ago. The Saints were lucky to win last week at home, and the Bucs were unlucky to lose on the road. This is a big turning point already for these two teams. If the Saints are 1-1, then maybe they are average and not great, but a 2-0 start in the division means that New Orleans is for real; if the Bucs beat the Saints then they have some hope, but if they start out 0-2 with a loss to the Jets and a divisional home loss, then they are done. So four points as a home dog is too much to pass up in this situation for me. Tampa needs to make a stand. New Orleans 24, Tampa Bay 27

DET vs ARI (+2.5) - The Lions were definitely impressive to open the season, with an offensive attack against the Vikes. However, this is a classic letdown game for me. They rely so much on throwing the ball, and the Cardinals have an underrated defense, especially at home. Patrick Peterson can matchup one on one with Megatron, and the Arizona linebackers can stop the run. On the other side, Carson Palmer has three solid receivers to throw to: Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Roberts. After one game, the Lions are road favorites? I’ll take those points. Note: I’m very happy right now that I reached to take Reggie Bush in my PPR money fantasy league. If the Lions win this game, then they need to be taken seriously in the NFC playoff picture. Detroit 23, Arizona 24

JAC (+6) vs OAK - I will not be one of the 15 people watching this game. I think it will be a close game, but just horrible to try to look at. Terrelle Pryor’s running will make the difference. Plus I’m probably never going to pick the Jags to win anything ever again after last week’s no-show. Jacksonville 10, Oakland 13

DEN vs NYG (+5.5) - This game is really tough for me. Before the year I had the Giants winning this game. The Broncos, obviously, looked unstoppable on Opening Night with their thrashing of the Ravens. But that level of play is unsustainable; I doubt that Peyton will even throw for five touchdowns in another game this season. Meanwhile, the Giants were just horrendous on Sunday Night in Dallas, and still came within a botched check down of having a chance to win! The David Wilson Fumble Machine storyline is one that is interesting to see how Coughlin will handle. But if the Giants can get pressure on Peyton, don’t you think they have enough offensive firepower to at least be in the game? The way the G-Men work is whenever you count them out, they come back and reel you back in, making you remember why Eli is great and how they won two Super Bowls. This is certainly one of those times. But after watching the Giants turn it over six times, and seeing Peyton throw seven touchdowns, I just don’t have it in me to pick Big Blue in this one straight up. Denver 35, New York 31

SF vs SEA (-2.5) - This game will be phenomenal. Sunday Night, primetime, the two best (or at least most physical) teams in the league, in their first matchup as officially established superpowers, in Seattle (best home field advantage in the league), Kaep vs Wilson, Harbaugh vs Carroll...everything about this game just exudes instant classic. I was very impressed by Kaepernick (what?!?!??!) last week, and even more impressed with Anquan Boldin. Whoa! 13 catches for over 200 yards? You can be sure that the Seahawks won’t let that happen again. Obviously, if you have read my opinions before, you know where I stand. Overtime field goal to win. San Francisco 20, Seattle 23

PIT vs CIN (-7) - What happened to Pittsburgh last week? Holy crap. That was just pathetic. They lost Pouncey and Foote, and they have no legitimate offensive weapons. The Bengals blew the game in Chicago, but they have a tremendous defense, and that front is absolutely going to demolish what is left of the Pittsburgh offensive line. The reason I don’t trust Cincy in the long run, is because of what you saw in the offense last Sunday. Their game is to throw it up to AJ Green and let him go get the ball. That’s basically the only reliable way they can score points. But for Monday Night, they will be fine. Pittsburgh 13, Cincinnati 27

No official upset picks this week (Week 1 made me depressed), but there is potential for a few, as evidenced by the fact that I think there will be a lot of games where the favorites win, but the underdog will cover the spread. Odds are one or two of these games will result in upsets, but there aren’t any shocking picks that I love. I’m going to try these last predictions again, and if they don’t work, I might just scratch them. But here we go:

Lock of the Week: CIN (-7), at least for the straight up win. For the spread...honestly, I think Jets (+11.5) is the best bet.

Performance of the Week: Aaron Rodgers vs WAS, Jordan Cameron vs BAL

Surprise of the Week: Drew Brees will throw 2 TDs and 3 INTs

2013 NFL Week One Preview

Week 1 Preview

Well, I’ve done 32 team previews, my official predictions, and now it’s time to get started with the season. Today is one of the most glorious days of the year: Not only is it the Jewish New Year (Rosh Hashanah), but it is also, of course, the birth of a new year of football. The Ravens and Broncos kick off the season in tremendous fashion, a rematch of the most dramatic game of the playoffs last year (that Hail Mary from Flacco was the most memorable play of the postseason). We have several great matchups on the schedule to kick off the season properly, whether it be divisional battles right off the bat or other playoff rematches. If you are unfamiliar how this works, I’m going to make a prediction for every game this week, giving you who I think will win WITH THE POINT SPREAD, but also picking the final score so you know who I have winning the week straight up. Bold predictions will be marked with an UPSET ALERT (and I have plenty of those this week, must be the new season getting me all excited). I will be using the lines from Sportsbook, and I will post this column usually every Wednesday night or Thursday afternoon. I did struggle a little bit last year, so I’m hoping for a nice bounce back season in 2013. Like I said, I have A LOT of UPSET ALERTs to start the year off right, so without further ado, here are my picks for Week One. Note: an upset this season will be any team I feel very confident about winning the game while at least a 4.5 point underdog (+4.5). Welcome back, and may your team start out 1-0.

BAL (+7.5) vs DEN - There are so many storylines to this game that it is impossible to look at one angle or statistic and think, “this is what will give either team an edge”. The Ravens look very different on defense but will still be a handle to deal with, especially if the rookies step in and perform from the start. Peyton Manning looks as dangerous as ever, especially now with Wes Welker in the mix, the best slot receiver he’s ever had. However, the suspension of Von Miller really could expose a defense that isn’t deep, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Broncos get off to a sluggish start in the first half. Ravens with the spread, but Denver wins the game. Baltimore 20, Denver 24

NE vs BUF (+10.5) - The Patriots have gotten so much doubt and criticism this offseason, with analysts predicting that they might even lose the division. I think that they are a machine and will keep chugging along. If Jeff Tuel were starting this game for Buffalo, then the Pats would easily clear this double digit spread, but Buffalo announced that EJ Manuel will start Week One, and I am all in on this kid. The Bills won’t win, but the combination of Manuel protecting the ball and Spiller keeping the defense honest will be enough to keep it within ten. New England 31, Buffalo 21

TEN vs PIT (-7) - This will be a blowout. The Titans are awful, in my opinion. Their offense won’t be able to do anything against the demoralizing Steelers D, and Tennessee’s defense is so bad that Pittsburgh won’t have too much trouble scoring, even with a limited offense. Big win. By at least 20. Tennessee 3, Pittsburgh 23

ATL (+3) vs NO - This point spread isn’t lopsided enough to be called an upset, but I do believe that the Falcons will win this game in New Orleans. The Saints can score, but the Falcons can score, defend, and are much more well-balanced. I previously spoke about how I think Julio Jones will go off in this one, although now I hope he doesn’t because I’m playing against him in fantasy. But objectively, I think he goes for at least 150 and two scores. Give me the Falcons and the points. Atlanta 31, New Orleans 28.

TB (-4.5) vs NYJ - This will be laughable. I’m going to school up in the University at Buffalo, and I sincerely hope I get the Bills on CBS, and not the Jets (I say this because Buffalo does get blacked out sometimes, and even when I was at Binghamton I got Gang Green). Geno Smith will make his first career start, and I don’t think he gets out without throwing at least three picks (or we’ll just say three turnovers, in general). Revis and Co. will feast on him, and Doug Martin will probably put up more yards himself than the entire Jet offense. Tampa Bay 27, New York Jets 6

KC vs JAC (+4.5) - The Andy Reid-Alex Smith era has a lot of people excited in Kansas City, and many people are taking the Chiefs as a surprise Wild Card team this season. I think that this group has enormous potential, and maybe they will reach a playoff-caliber level this year, but not before an...UPSET ALERT!!!!! I don’t know what makes me like Jacksonville this week (or at any time, really), but I do think that they will beat the Chiefs. They will contain Jamaal Charles and cover Dwayne Bowe, making Alex Smith try to find some other to beat them with his new team. Blaine Gabbert will be competent, and I think the Jags chip in one defensive/special teams TD to help with the scoring. I’ll take the points, and the straight up win for the Jags. Jacksonville 20, Kansas City 16

CIN vs CHI (-3) - This is such an even game, that I guarantee you won’t know who I’m picking until the end. Look: I think that the winning team will have an average quarterback, a dynamic runner, and one stud receiver surrounded by a bunch of complementary guys. Their defense is fierce and will get after the quarterback, led by their dominant man on the defensive line. Which team am I talking about there? The difference in the game: Special Teams, and Soldier Field. Cincinnati 20, Chicago 24

MIA vs CLE (-1) - If you’ve read anything that I’ve written this preseason, you know where I’m going with this. Miami 17, Cleveland 23

SEA vs CAR (+4.5) - A substantial home underdog who ended last year on a roll with an emerging dynamic dual threat quarterback who happens to be on my fantasy team, taking on an overhyped substance-abusing team who struggles away from home with a questionable second year QB and all the pressure in the world? Give me those odds, and I’ll give you my second UPSET ALERT! Seattle 22, Carolina 24

MIN (+6) vs DET - I do think the Lions can take care of business at home and beat the regressing Vikes, but that six-point spread scares me a little. I mean, are the 4-12 Lions a full touchdown better than the 10-6 Vikings who have Adrian Peterson? I can’t bank on that. I’m taking the safe route here, and say that the Lions win close, because Minnesota winning straight up is more likely than Detroit winning big. I’m taking the points, but a Lions victory. Minnesota 21, Detroit 26

OAK (+10) vs IND - The toughest call of the week, by far, for me. I have no doubt that the Colts will win this game, but by double digits? It’s very reasonable to think so, but isn’t it also fair to say that the Colts might be rusty or just run the clock down in the fourth and eek out one of those not-that-close six or seven point wins? In my opinion, after doing this for a couple of years, I’ve discovered that you don’t take a double digit line unless you are 100% sure about it. Oakland 16, Indianapolis 23

ARI vs STL (-4.5) - The second hardest line of the week. I love the Rams, and I don’t love the Cardinals, and the game is in St. Louis, so picking the game straight up isn’t too hard. But in actuality, these two teams are fairly even, and to spot five points on the Rams, who struggle offensively, is an awful lot to ask. But I think that it is more likely they win by a touchdown then by a field goal, or, of course, simply lose the game. I’ve got confidence in the teams I like, and I’m putting my money where my mouth is. Arizona 14, St. Louis 20

GB (+5) vs SF - I’ve discussed this game as well in previous pieces. I feel that Aaron Rodgers will want revenge for the Niners embarrassing his team last postseason; I feel that Kaepernick will be easier to figure out now that there is tape on him (and if the Pack didn’t spend all offseason learning how to defend the read option, then they deserve to lose this game); and I think that the weapons on Green Bay will be able to outplay the San Fran secondary. The one area of concern for me: the Niners’ pass rush against a weak Packers’ offensive line. But if they can hold up, we’re looking at...UPSET ALERT NUMBER THREE. Green Bay 31, San Francisco 26

NYG vs DAL (-3.5) - This extra half a point is going to cause me to lose sleep leading up to this game. I will be rooting for the Giants. But I think that Dallas is better this year, and that Romo and Dez are going to light up the Big Blue secondary. The bright spot for the G-Men: they have never lost in Jerry Jones’ new stadium. But there’s a first time for everything. Since it’s 3.5 points, I’ll take Dallas by four. New York Giants 23, Dallas 27

PHI (+4.5) vs WAS - Robert Griffin the Third is great, but all this hype and drama around Washington has to backfire eventually (if you believe in karma), and last time I checked, he can’t play defense. The Eagles are the biggest mystery in the league, and I think that Chip Kelly is going to use this national stage to unleash his furious offense and make a statement. They will break 90 plays run in this game, and the Washington defense, especially in the first game of the season, will not know what hit them. The Philly pace will wear down the Washington defensemen, and the Eagles will soar to victory, ruining RGIII’s return. UPSET ALERT NUMBER FOUR, taking form on the first Monday Night Football game of the year. Philadelphia 34, Washington 24

HOU (-5.5) vs SD - I probably won’t even watch most of this game, as the Texans are uninspiring and the Chargers stink. The line is 5.5? Fine. Texans by six. Houston 27, San Diego 21.

So there are my picks for Week One of the 2013 NFL season, one that should be incredibly exciting. Out of 16 games, I have FOUR UPSET ALERTS going, which is three more than usual. If I hit two of them I’ll be happy, and I feel really good about that Eagles pick on Monday Night. Some final notes before I go...

Lock(s) of the Week: PIT (-7) and TB (-4.5)

Performance(s) of the Week: Julio Jones (ATL) and Dez Bryant (DAL)

Surprise of the Week: After one week, the St. Louis Rams will be the only team in the NFC West to start out 1-0.

Enjoy the week, and I’ll be back for Week Two!

Official 2013 NFL Predictions!!!!!

Official 2013 NFL Predictions

On February 3rd, 2013, the Baltimore Ravens defeated the San Francisco 49ers to win Super Bowl XLVII, capping off an incredible career for Ray Lewis and earning Joe Flacco an enormous contract. It has been exactly seven months since then, 212 long days since we’ve had our last taste of meaningful football. After all this waiting, we are now only hours away from the kickoff of a new season. The Ravens will defend their Super Bowl title with a much different-looking team from the one in February, and they will open up the season IN Denver. How did this not get worked out somehow, where the Ravens could open up the season in front of their home fans? Pathetic. The Ravens vs Broncos game is one of several that highlight the NFL schedule this season. There are plenty of rematches of playoff games from last postseason, as well as several “return” games: Reid going back to Philly, Welker facing off against the Patriots in New England, and, biggest of all, Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis. There are so many storylines surrounding teams and players (most of which were covered in my team by team previews), and more competitive teams in the league than any time in recent memory. For example, I think that every single team in the NFC will have at least seven wins, while in the AFC there are five or six teams that could potentially jump three wins up and make a playoff push. In this season preview, I’m going to be making all my predictions, here in one place. I’ll have my final standings, picks for the playoffs and the Super Bowl, some fantasy rankings, and some smart bets to make if you’re into that kind of thing. This piece will have everything imaginable for you to know my thoughts for this coming season, and it’ll be fun to look back when the year is over to see how I fared. Note: if you’re only reading this to see my Super Bowl pick (which you should, because I picked Baltimore last year), I’ll be saving that for last, so you can skip right to the end. But I’d appreciate it if you stick with me all the way through, and remember, all feedback is appreciated. Who do you have winning the Super Bowl? It could be anyone; that’s the beauty of a new season, everyone starts out 0-0.

Standings

AFC West North South East

DEN: 12-4 BAL: 10-6 HOU: 10-6       NE: 11-5

KC: 7-9 CLE: 9-7 IND: 10-6                        BUF: 7-9

SD: 6-10 CIN: 9-7 JAC: 5-11                         MIA: 7-9

OAK: 5-11 PIT: 7-9 TEN: 4-12                        NYJ: 1-15

NFC West North South East

SEA: 11-5 GB: 11-5 ATL: 11-5                           DAL: 9-7   

SF: 10-6 DET: 8-8 CAR: 9-7                            NYG: 9-7 

STL: 8-8 CHI: 8-8 TB: 8-8                               PHI: 8-8

ARI: 7-9 MIN: 7-9   NO: 8-8                             WAS: 8-8

Playoff Seeds (1-6)

AFC: DEN, NE, BAL, HOU, IND, CLE           NFC: SEA, ATL, GB, DAL, SF, CAR

A few notes about my standings: first, as I’ve said before, the Cleveland Browns will make the playoffs, while the other five teams will be returning teams. Next, Seattle will beat San Francisco to get a home playoff game. I literally changed my mind like two minutes ago over the NFC East race, and I know I’m going to have bad karma for picking against my Giants, but I now have the Dallas Cowboys winning the division, with the Giants missing the playoffs on tiebreakers. In reality, I do hope the Giants find a way to make the playoffs, but the Cowboys’ roster is just more talented, and Big Blue is like the Big Black and Blue because of how banged up they are. The Buffalo Bills record is assuming EJ Manuel plays at least 14 games, I really like him a lot. Finally, the race for the six seed in the NFC will be fierce, and I’ve been high on Tampa Bay all offseason, but now I’ve decided that Cam Newton is going to be great, and Josh Freeman will not. If I’m wrong about Carolina, then one of the North teams, either Detroit or Chicago, will grab that spot. My playoff picks and Super Bowl Champion will be at the end of the piece. Here’s a hint for my Super Bowl matchup if you want to guess: I love me some of the animal-named teams this year. Also, I hate taking both favorites.

Fantasy Rankings

I’ve got some fantasy ranking predictions for the major positions, which I’ve never done before, so you can choose to trust me or not, I understand.

QB

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB
2. Drew Brees, NO
3. Cam Newton, CAR
4. Peyton Manning, DEN
5. Matt Ryan, ATL
6. Matthew Stafford, DET
7. Tom Brady, NE
8. Russell Wilson, SEA
9. Andrew Luck, IND
10. Tony Romo, DAL
11. Colin Kaepernick, SF
12. Robert Griffin III, WAS

RB

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN
2. Jamaal Charles, KC
3. Doug Martin, TB
4. Marshawn Lynch, SEA
5. Arian Foster, HOU
6. LeSean McCoy, PHI
7. Trent Richardson, CLE
8. Stevan Ridley, NE
9. CJ Spiller, BUF
10. Matt Forte, CHI
11. Ray Rice, BAL
12. Steven Jackson, ATL
13. Reggie Bush, DET
14. Alfred Morris, WAS
15. Chris Johnson, TEN

WR

1. Dez Bryant, DAL
2. Calvin Johnson, DET
3. AJ Green, CIN
4. Brandon Marshall, CHI
5. Julio Jones, ATL
6. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
7. Demaryius Thomas, DET
8. Randall Cobb, GB
9. Victor Cruz, NYG
10. Roddy White, ATL
11. Vincent Jackson, TB
12. Wes Welker, DEN
13. Marques Colston, NO
14. T.Y. Hilton, IND
15. Dwayne Bowe, KC
16. Josh Gordon, CLE
17. Pierre Garcon, WAS
18. Andre Johnson, HOU
19. James Jones, GB
20. Torrey Smith, BAL

TE

1. Jimmy Graham, NO
2. Brandon Myers, NYG
3. Greg Olsen, CAR
4. Tony Gonzalez, ATL
5. Jason Witten, DAL
6. Rob Gronkowski, NE
7. Jordan Cameron, CLE
8. Vernon Davis, SF
9. Owen Daniels, HOU
10. Kyle Rudolph, MIN

D/ST

1. SEA
2. STL
3. CHI
4. CLE
5. CIN
6. HOU
7. SF
8. ARI
9. DEN
10. NE

K

1. Matt Bryant, ATL
2. Justin Tucker, BAL
3. Stephen Gostowski, NE
4. Blair Walsh. MIN
5. Dan Bailey, DEN

Smart Bets

I’m very competitive, I love games, I love sports, and I love winning money. These qualities combined are dangerous, as I’ll have to make sure I do not become a chronic sports gambler. That said, I still love to look at odds and lines, to see what I would bet on if I had the balls. So this year, I’m going to list a bunch of my money-making bets, from team over/under win totals, to individual stat lines, to who to bet on to win the Super Bowl. Now, keep in mind, not all of these are what I expect to happen, but they are what I think are the smartest bets you can make, to get the most bang for your buck. You’ll see what I mean in a little bit. All of the odds I’m going to use are based on sportsbook.com, so if you’re interested, you can find the bets there. Let’s do this.

Over/Under Team Wins

BAL 8.5: OVER (-120). The defending champs won’t be over .500? Come on.

CLE 6.5: OVER (-155). All in on the Browns.

NO 9.5: UNDER (+110). Down on the Saints. Single digit wins for them.

NYJ 6.5: UNDER (-130). Combine with Team With Worst Record (+1200).

Awards

MVP

Value: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton (+2500)

Favorite: Peyton Manning (+400)

My MVP pick: Aaron Rodgers (+600)

Offensive Rookie of the Year

EJ Manuel (+600)

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Alec Ogletree (+1800)

Defensive Player of the Year: Luke Kuechly, CAR

Coach of the Year: Rob Chudzinski, CLE

Super Bowl Picks (value picks, my pick later)

ATL (+1400)

BAL (+4000)

CLE (+10,000)

NYG (+2500)

PHI (+6000)

Playoff Predictions

AFC NFC

6 CLE     13 5 IND       27 5 SF       24 6 CAR    24 

3 BAL     23 4 HOU     20 4 DAL   20 3 GB       31

Round 1 recap: Both 3 seeds and 5 seeds win. AFC games set up great matchups (IND-DEN, BAL-NE), while in the NFC we get the dream matchup (SF-SEA), while Dallas comes up short. Romo will get all the blame, even though the Cowboys will play well.

5 IND     24 3 BAL      20 3 GB      20 5 SF       16

1 DEN    31 2 NE        24 2 ATL    23 1 SEA    20

Round 2 recap: Both 1 and 2 seeds win, which normally I’m against. The Patriots FINALLY beat the Ravens, who aren’t the same, and will travel to Denver to have another Brady-Peyton AFC Championship. In the NFC we get the Falcons and Seahawks, a rematch of the playoff game from last year.

2 NE         24 2 ATL   24 

1 DEN      27 1 SEA    17

Conference Championship recap: Peyton outduels Brady with a last second drive to get back to the Super Bowl, and Atlanta finishes the job they couldn’t complete last year: winning (on the road, in Seattle!) the big game, and getting to the promised land. This sets up a matchup between the Broncos and Falcons for a Super Bowl title.

2 ATL    20

1 DEN    24

So there you have it. I think that Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos will win Super Bowl XLVIII in MetLife Stadium. I hate doing this, because Denver is the favorite to win it all and I try to always go against that, because so rarely does the favorite win, but I almost have to go with the Broncos by default. In the AFC, I am never going to take the Patriots to make the Super Bowl (unless it would be against the Giants, which I was planning on doing until I lost confidence in the G-Men). I don’t think the Ravens are good enough to get back to the title game, and I don’t think Houston can make it with Matt Schaub running the show. Plus, Peyton Manning is my favorite player of all time, so the Broncos will represent the AFC. The tough part was trying to sort out the NFC, where in my opinion, four teams (ATL, GB, SEA, SF) could realistically get to MetLife Stadium. I’m obviously not going to take the Niners, and I’m not going to go with the classic non-creative frontrunning matchup of Denver vs Seattle, even though I think that they are the top team in the conference. That leaves the Falcons and Packers, and I just think the Green Bay defense isn’t good enough to make it through the NFC. The Falcons have the most balanced offense in the whole league, probably, now that Steven Jackson is their running back, and I believe Matt Ryan will be the latest young quarterback waiting for a new contract who succeeds in the playoffs and gets a huge deal. Ryan broke through last year by winning his first playoff game, and I think he’ll only continue to improve. This is the year for them, as S-Jax is still a force of nature for the time being, and Tony Gonzalez is still there. Julio Jones will break out, and the Falcons’ defense, like the Broncos’ will be just good enough to make it through the gauntlet. As far as the game itself, I think Denver is just a little bit better than Atlanta. Their defenses are pretty even, but the Falcons don’t have a stud pass rusher like Von Miller, and while both teams have a superb group of wide outs, Denver’s trio is more dangerous than Atlanta’s duo. This might be Peyton Manning’s last chance to win another Super Bowl, and I would love nothing more than to see him really solidify his legacy by winning a second ring. I feel like taking Denver is so obvious of a pick, especially since there are so many things that could go wrong (Peyton’s arm strength dwindling again, no running game, Miller or Bailey injuries, etc.), I just think that there’s no team in the AFC that is in their class. The closest team is New England, but I’m not going to pick Tom Brady over Peyton Manning in any scenario. The Broncos will defeat the Falcons 24-20, and Peyton Manning will win MVP, naturally. Here are my stat predictions for the game:

Manning: 26-37, 303 yds, 2 TD

Ryan: 21-33, 277 yds, 2 TD, INT

Ball: 14 rush, 64 yds, TD

Hillman: 10 rush, 44 yds

Jackson: 22 rush, 88 yds

Thomas: 7 rec, 94 yds

Decker: 5 rec, 63 yds, TD

Welker: 8 rec, 92 yds, TD

Jones: 4 rec, 55 yds

White: 8 rec, 101 yds, TD

Gonzalez: 6 rec, 67 yds, TD

Denver will lead 10-6 at halftime, but in the second half, each team will find their offenses and score two touchdowns each. The Broncos will go up 17-6, and Atlanta will respond by getting a touchdown right at the end of the third quarter. Halfway through the 4th, Ryan will hook up with White on a 44-yard TD to take the lead, 20-17. Finally, Peyton will throw a 21-yard TD to Decker with 3:43 left in the game to win, 24-20. Ryan, needing a touchdown to win, will drive Atlanta down to the Denver 26 yard line but on third and 8 throw an interception in the end zone trying to hit Julio Jones. Rahim Moore will get the pick, making up for his famous mistake against the Ravens last year. If all goes well, hopefully there will be some light snow falling in the first half, because there is nothing quite like football in the elements. Matt Ryan might very well get a Super Bowl ring at some point in his future, but this night will belong to Peyton Manning, who is still the King of Quarterbacks. He wants another ring, and he will take what is his with fire and blood.

That wraps up my official NFL predictions for the 2013 season. To recap: my surprises to make the playoffs are the Dallas Cowboys, the Carolina Panthers, and the CLEVELAND BROWNS. I love Ridley, Richardson, and Reggie Bush (in PPR leagues especially) as my fantasy RB. Dez Bryant will be the top WR this season, and Larry Fitzgerald will bounce back. I also love T.Y. Hilton and Josh Gordon as late round sleepers. The Rams and Browns D/ST will be top five, and Jordan Cameron will be a top ten tight end. Definitely take the OVER on Cleveland wins and UNDER on Jets wins. I’m picking Denver to win the Super Bowl, but a really smart value pick is PHI (+6000), as they have incredibly high upside and could take the league by storm with that offense. The two conference championship games will be Broncos-Patriots and Seahawks-Falcons, and in the Super Bowl, the Denver Broncos will defeat the Atlanta Falcons. Here’s to a great football season everyone, and good luck to all your favorite teams.