NFL Week 17 Preview

Week 17 Preview

This is it guys...Week 17. The last week of the regular season. The last chance to get into the playoffs, get a first round bye, or gain momentum going into next year. A quick word of advice: do NOT bet on Week 17. It’s too inconsistent. Some teams have nothing to play for, which means that they will go all guns blazing or else they will come out flat and uninspired. Teams that are in the unique position of having a seed locked up may rest their starters. Coaches trying to keep their jobs might unload the playbook or decide to go for it on 4th down at their own 30 in the first quarter. There are simply too many variables to account for in the last game of the season. The only game that has a division title riding on it is the Sunday Night matchup between the Cowboys and Redskins that could decide not only a playoff spot, but the future of coaches as well. The most important game, for more than just sports reasons, is Houston at Indianapolis. If the Texans lose, they can fall all the way out of a first round bye, while the Colts will be fueled by the return of Chuck Pagano. It’s been an unusually weak season for me picking games, but hopefully it was fun reading my posts. Playoff predictions will be coming up next week. I hope everyone had a great holiday, and to everyone out there, let me be the first to wish you a Happy New Year. Now let’s get to these picks for one final time in the 2012 NFL regular season.

TB vs ATL (-3.5) - This game naturally will be decided by how long the Falcons play their starters. We’ve heard that they will at least start this game, and therefore I’m taking the Falcons to defeat the struggling Bucs. Early prediction for 2013: big on J. Rodgers next year; Michael Turner is officially out of gas in the ATL. Tampa Bay 20, Atlanta 27.

NYJ vs BUF (-3.5) - What a mess of a game between two of the most underachieving teams in the league. I’m done with the Jets; I’m not a Tebow supporter or hater, but I would have liked to see him start at least a few times, just to see what he could bring. But it’s been clear for a while now that Rex would never give him a shot; he’s scared to death that if Tebow came in he would throw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns and probably cost Ryan his job. So now Sanchez gets the start. And if we’ve learned anything this year, it’s that he sucks. 3 interceptions in the cold, windy Buffalo atmosphere. Quick fun thought: what if Sanchez gets injured, or fakes an injury with McElroy already out? I think that before Rex goes to Kerley to run the wildcat for the entire rest of the game before he plays Tebow. I’m taking the Bills to win at home, by default, by six. New York 10, Buffalo 16.

BAL vs CIN (-2.5) - The Bengals have nothing to play for. The Ravens have a shot at a three seed. This game was so close to meaningful. I’m just taking the Ravens because I like them better. They’ll still most likely get the four seed. I still don’t really trust Andy Dalton. Baltimore 20, Cincinnati 17.

CHI vs DET (+3.5) - This pick is biased because I want the Giants to make the playoffs. Big Blue needs four things to happen: win, and have Chicago, Minnesota, and Dallas all lose. I want this to happen. So I’m picking the Lions to upset the Bears, even though if one of these things was most likely to go wrong, it would be Chicago taking this game and sneaking into the playoffs as a six seed. But like I said, I want the Giants to make the playoffs. So Lions pull the upset. Chicago 13, Detroit 21.

JAC vs TEN (-4.5) - Both of these teams suck. The Titans suck less. Seven turnovers combined between these teams. Two fired coaches? Jacksonville 10, Tennessee 17.

HOU vs IND (+3.5) - Game of the week. The Texans were 11-1, and now could very well lose their first round bye with a loss, with absolutely no momentum. They will most likely beat the Bengals and go up to New England and get killed. Meanwhile, the story of the year has been the resurgence of the Colts with Andrew Luck at quarterback and coach Chuck Pagano recovering from leukemia. He will return to the sidelines this week, and even though Indy has the 5 seed locked up, they will play their hearts out to win this game. And I think they do. One final time, ladies and gentlemen, say it with me: UPSET SPECIAL. The Texans blew their season last week by not showing up against Christian Ponder and the Vikings. All Colts this week. The magnitude of this win should not be understated. Houston 17, Indianapolis 27.

CAR vs NO (-4.5) - Another meaningless game. Cam and the Panthers have been playing very well the last few weeks, showing some positive signs for next season when they have a coach not named Ron Rivera. The Saints signed Sean Payton to a 5 year deal, and next year they are going to have an ultra F U season winning at least 12 games. Saints put on an aerial show to end the season, and they win comfortably. How is Drew Brees not in the Pro Bowl? Carolina 20, New Orleans 34.

PHI vs NYG (-7.5) - I don’t know what happened to the Giants this season...but at least they are still better than the Eagles. Even with Michael Vick. No team wants the Giants to somehow sneak into the playoffs. I hope they do. Philadelphia 21, New York 31.

CLE vs PIT (-6.5) - I had the Browns covering until I found out that Cleveland had to sign a kid off the practice squad to start at quarterback in Pittsburgh. Needless to say, I changed my mind. Cleveland 10, Pittsburgh 20.

KC vs DEN (-15.5) - This line is huge. I hate huge spreads. I’ve gotten killed on them all year long. I’m going with the Chiefs here, because sixteen points is quite a lot. When Denver gets a big lead, they coast to the end. The Broncos are going to win this game, taking eleven in a row into the playoffs, and I think they are going to get the number one seed. And the way I see it, I don’t know how they don’t make the Super Bowl. Tom Brady and the Patriots want no part in going to Denver to take on Peyton in his new house. Broncos by two touchdowns. Kansas City 13, Denver 27.

GB vs MIN (+3.5) - The plan for the Vikings is simple: win, and get in the playoffs. Their only problem is that they are playing a Packers team that needs to win to keep their second seed and first round bye. Adrian Peterson has had a miraculous season, one that should end with at least the Comeback Player of the Year. I also think he should get the MVP if he crosses 2,000 yards, and if the Vikings win this game and make the playoffs then it should be a lock. I have to take the Pack here, if only for the sake of my Giants, but AD has been phenomenal and deserves the Most Valuable Player award this season. Green Bay 26, Minnesota 19.

MIA vs NE (-10.5) - Destruction. But I’ll spend a second talking about the better-than-expected Dolphins heading into next season. They were supposed to be rebuilding, but it only took one season to become the second best team in the AFC East, and I like this team a lot as a wild card next season. The status of Reggie Bush is unknown, but I really like Lamar Miller out of Miami to have an increased role next year. They have exceeded expectations this year, and I think they have a chance at winning ten games next year. But they will be handled by a pissed off Patriots team this week. Miami 16, New England 38.

OAK vs SD (-4.5) - People of San Diego, rejoice!!!! It’s the last game with Norv Turner as head coach! I’m picking the Chargers simply because of how bad the Raiders are, but I would absolutely love to see Norv and Philip Rivers inexplicably blow a game late one last time, for old time’s sake. Oakland 13, San Diego 20.

ARI vs SF (-14.5) - This is an obvious game straight-up, but the point spread makes things interesting. You know what? I think the Cardinals cover. The 49ers seem a little off as a unit. Vernon Davis is banged up and Mario Manningham is out for the year. I’ve never been a fan of Colin Kaepernick in the first place, and that feeling is only getting stronger with those losses. The absence of defensive anchor Justin Smith will take its toll on this team if he does not come back for the playoffs, and the worst fear for this team has to be that the Giants will somehow sneak into the playoffs and face 49ers in the first round while they are not at full strength. This team can be beat, just not by the Cardinals. However, I think this is a ten point game; the Cardinals defense is not the reason why this team is awful. Arizona 14, San Francisco 24.

STL vs SEA (-10.5) - One of these teams is undefeated against the NFC West. The other team is the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams are 4-0-1 against NFC West opponents and have played surprisingly well this season under Jeff Fisher. However, the Seahawks are the hottest team in the league right now, and opponents do not make it out of Seattle alive. Going with the Seahawks comfortably, and if the Giants don’t make the playoffs, I think this team will be in the NFC Championship Game. St. Louis 9, Seattle 23.

DAL vs WAS (-3.5) - Here we go, the final game of the regular season. Winner takes the NFC East and controls the four seed in the playoffs, presumably immediately losing to the Seahawks. It has been a magical season for the Redskins, winners of six straight and riding the confidence of RGIII. The Cowboys meanwhile, have actually excelled in the second half of the season, with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant carving up defenses. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I kind of want the Cowboys to win this game. But there are three certainties in this world: death, taxes, and Big D coming up small in decisive games. The Redskins will win this division, keeping the Giants’ playoff hopes alive, and possibly threatening the jobs of Jason Garrett, Tony Romo and others. It also casts fear to the other teams in the division, that RGIII and the Redskins are here to stay for the next decade. Dallas 24, Washington 31.

So that’s it, folks, the end of the 2012 regular season. Good luck to all the teams that make the postseason, and here’s to another magical playoffs. Playoff predictions coming up next week. Happy New Year!

NFL Week 16 Preview

Week 16 Preview

With two weeks left in the regular season, the final spots for the postseason are still up for grabs, and the true winners will step up and take what is rightfully theirs. While the AFC is pretty much wrapped up except for seeding purposes, the NFC still can be jumbled up in many ways. There are 3 teams tied in the NFC East with 8-6 records, while the Bears and Vikings also share this record fighting for a Wild Card spot. All of these teams are one game behind Seattle, but if the Seahawks lose to the 49ers on Sunday, anything could happen. There are a couple of records in danger of falling this year as well. Adrian Peterson will most likely pass 2,000 yards and quite possibly even Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record by the end of the year. He is coming off a torn ACL that took place in Week 16 of last year, so he absolutely in my opinion should be Comeback Player of the Year. If the Vikings somehow make the playoffs, I think he should win MVP over Peyton Manning as well. But that is a tough task given that they play the Texans and Packers to end the season. The Redskins and Cowboys are both surging to the finish line, and if either of these teams makes it into the postseason, no one will want to face them. So, without further ado, here are my picks for Week 16, and who I think will put themselves in position to make the playoffs.

ATL vs DET (+3.5) - This one is pretty simple in my opinion. The Falcons, with a win, will clinch home field throughout the playoffs. The Lions are going backwards at 4-10 and a horrible loss to the Cardinals last week. So I think it’s a comfortable win for the Dirty Birds, but they still will lose in the second round of the playoffs, after their bye. Atlanta 31, Detroit 17.

NO vs DAL (-3.5) - The Saints have had a miserable season because of the aggressiveness of the Commissioner regarding the bounty punishments. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have been a surprising team and control their own destiny in the division. However, they have not had a convincing home win in a long time, and this one will be close too. But you know what? Tony Romo has been fabulous and the Saints defense has gotten torched more times than not this year. The Cowboys secondary will be good enough to contain the explosive wide outs for the Saints. And Big D will be one win away from the NFC East crown. First to 30. New Orleans 24, Dallas 31.

TEN vs GB (-12.5) - The Packers have had so many huge spreads at home this year and have not been good at closing teams out and winning big. While they should and will most likely win this game, I have to go with the Titans to keep this game close enough. Jake Locker has a lot of athletic ability and I really like his potential, and Chris Johnson is always a immediate big play threat. I’m taking the Pack by ten, give me the points in this one. Tennessee 17, Green Bay 27.

IND vs KC (+6.5) - I feel horrible for the people who had to watch the Chiefs-Raiders game last week. Miserable. Can Andrew Luck beat the terrible Chiefs by a touchdown to control the 5 seed? Yes. Indy will be playing emotional once again, with the news of Pagano’s recovery. This team is the best story in the NFL this year. Quick thought, does anyone realize that the Colts can feasibly make the AFC Championship Game? They could beat Baltimore or Cincy in round one, and face the Texans in round two, in which division games are always close. Watch out for that. Indianapolis 24, Kansas City 10.

BUF vs MIA (-4.5) - A moment of silence for what the Bills’ season could have been. It took the Dolphins one year to become the new team with potential in the AFC East. Buffalo 20, Miami 27.

SD vs NYJ (-2.5) - The Jets have finally benched their turnover machine of a quarterback in favor of someone with zero 

career NFL starts. The running game is almost average, but not quite. Their best receiver shares a name with one of the Three Stooges. The defense provides no pass rush, and is missing their best player. And this team is favored. What a mess that is out west under Norv. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2012 San Diego Chargers! Win number one for McElroy. San Diego 13, New York 20.

WAS vs PHI (+4.5) - It’s been a while, but...UPSET SPECIAL BABY!!!!! Word is that RGIII should be able to play in this game, but that’s ok. Doesn’t matter. LeSean McCoy is coming back this week, and even though the Redskins run defense is pretty solid, if Andy Reid finally grows a brain and feeds the two-headed monster potential of McCoy and Bryce Brown, and lets Nick Foles dink and dunk on this flawed Washington pass defense, the offense will be effective enough to win. This game relies on the Eagles’ defensive pursuit and ability to make tackles. Uh oh. I suddenly feel much less confident about this pick. But they are at home, and this is a pride game for Philly in front of their fans, and I think they 

play their best game of the year. Washington 20, Philadelphia 23.

CIN vs PIT (-4.5) - I’ve changed my pick for this game multiple times, with the spread and straight up as well. I have consistently ragged on the Bengals this year for not winning the games when it matters, and this one absolutely matters. If Cincy wants to be considered among the big boys of the AFC North, then they have to beat the Ravens and Steelers, both of whom are declining. I originally had the Steelers because of my lack of faith in the Bengals, but you know what? Pittsburgh has looked awful recently, and the Cincinnati D is ferocious. I picked the Steelers to miss the playoffs, and if the Bengals win this game, not only do they clinch a playoff spot, but they have a chance to take the division away from Baltimore in Week 17. I finally have faith in them. And you know what? They are probably going to let me down. But I’m riding with them. Not only to cover, but to win outright. The Bengals will clinch their spot in the playoffs in the Steel City on Sunday. Time to step up. Cincinnati 20, Pittsburgh 14.

STL vs TB (-3.5) - The Rams have shown signs of life under Jeff Fisher already, and I have a lot of hope for them to compete sooner rather than later. The Bucs have been spiraling down, but have shown good things this year, and I think Doug Martin goes off on this defense that got lit up by AD last week. Two touchdowns for Freeman as well. Solid win for the Buccaneers to get momentum heading into next year. Easy cover on this one. I’m trying not to laugh imaging Sam Bradford trying to lead his team from three touchdowns back. St. Louis 13, Tampa Bay 31.

OAK vs CAR (-8.5) - I mean, I know the Panthers have been good lately and Cam has rebounded really great, but laying eight and a half? Really? Two-possession game? I’m not buying it. Even to the horrid Raiders. Lots of garbage time potential in this one. One possession win for the Panthers. Oakland 16, Carolina 22.

NE vs JAC (-14.5) - Um...yeah...the Jags might be a little overmatched against the Patriots. In December. Angry coming off a loss. I don’t see how this isn’t a blowout. Unless Chad Henne goes wild throwing to Cecil Shorts and and Justin Blackmon, and the Patriots are caught napping. I’m going with the former. I’m so happy that the Pats lost last week, because it’s going to be really fun seeing them go to Denver and Peyton Manning getting his revenge. New England 41, Jacksonville 17.

MIN vs HOU (-7.5) - I was right about the Texans winning big in their statement game last week against the Colts. Here, they have a chance to lock up number one seed which is vital. The Vikings have been riding Adrian Peterson all season long, but the Texans have a dominant run defense. If AD can’t get his, then do you trust Christian Ponder trying to come back with no receivers, getting harassed by JJ Watt and friends? I don’t see it. Another decent, but not tremendous win for the Texans in this one. But I think they definitely cover. Minnesota 13, Houston 27.

CLE vs DEN (-13.5) - I originally thought that this line could not be high enough. The Browns just got embarrassed last week. Their 1st round QB and RB just lost at home, with a better defense, to a 4th round backup QB and a 6th round RB. The Redskins have drafted two quarterbacks better than Cleveland in this past draft. Meanwhile, the Broncos are surging, and will most likely take an 11 game win streak into the playoffs with a first round bye. As of right now, I think they are my Super Bowl favorite. But this game just smells funny...I think it’ll be one of those games that the score doesn’t indicate how one-sided the game actually was. And so I think the Browns keep it within two touchdowns. If the Broncos get a big lead, they just run the ball and show no effort to really score. So I’m taking the Browns and the points, but in terms of gameplay it will be very one-sided. Like 28-10 in the 4th and the Browns just have some garbage time score. Cleveland 16, Denver 28.

CHI vs ARI (+5.5) - Ok Chicago...you can’t be that bad right? I picked this team to go to the NFC Championship Game, and it looked like they would after that 7-1 start. But this team has imploded, and they need to win out to make the playoffs. The Cardinals had a misleading beatdown of the Lions last week; they got a couple of defensive scores to put the game out of reach, but it was a blowout because of the Lions’ ineptitude. I think the Bears take care of business to stay alive, but it’ll only be about a 7-10 point winning margin. Chicago 20, Arizona 13.

NYG vs BAL (+2.5) - The Ravens have to be the winner of the “wrong place, wrong time” competition this week. The Ravens are backing into the playoffs with no momentum whatsoever, and could even still lose the division. After a 9-2 start. Wow. My Super Bowl pick going down in flames. Meanwhile, the G-men officially have their backs against the wall. And the entire league has seen this story before. They don’t lose these games. And they won’t this time either. Big Blue takes care of business against the plummeting Ravens to stay in the playoff hunt. Eli time. New York 31, Baltimore 20.

SF vs SEA (+1.5) - There are two ways to look at the 49ers’ win over the Patriots last week. They dominated to get off to a 31-3 lead, and then collapsed to let the Pats tie it up before San Francisco ultimately won. There is only one way to look at Seattle’s win last week: domination. No team is playing better than the Seahawks right now, and they are unbeatable at home. And still, I am not a Kaepernick believer. I’ll trust him when I see him win a playoff game. I’m sipping the Russell Wilson kool-aid. This team is legit, and will only get better in years to come. The Seahawks have a statement game on Sunday Night, primetime, while the 49ers will suffer an emotional letdown after a big win last week. San Francisco 13, Seattle 24. The Pacific Northwest is back.

NFL Week 15 Preview

Week 15 Preview

ESPN is calling this Sunday “Showdown Sunday”. I’m just going to stick with Week 15. But this weekend is filled with multiple top matchups with many games between teams with winning records. Some surprising teams have made runs and are in the thick of the playoff hunt, such as the Rams and Vikings (playing each other!), Redskins, Bengals, Colts, and...wait for it...the Jets! With only three weeks to go in the regular season, winning is imperative to keep the year alive. So without further ado, let’s get into the Week 15 picks.

CIN vs PHI (+3.5) - The Bengals had a chance to make a statement last week, and ended up pulling a Dallas, against Dallas! They had a two-possession lead down the stretch, at home against the Cowboys! Every time you start to think they are legit, they slip up and show their true colors. Now they go off to Philly on a short week, to face a team, wait for it, coming off a nice win! The Eagles came back and took down the Bucs on the final play of the game last week. I think the Eagles fly high tonight and steal one at home. But they’ll need to cover AJ Green! Cincinnati 20, Philadelphia 23.

NYG vs ATL (-1.5) - The Falcons lost for the second time, again versus a division rival on the road. I refuse to get on the bandwagon; I don’t even think they are a top three team in the NFC. Now they face the Giants. Who win games against great teams, especially on the road. Here’s the thing: Big Blue can’t win out going into the playoffs, because then they won’t be doubted. So they will lose one of the next two games. I think they win this one; the Falcons aren’t ready for big time yet. New York 31, Atlanta 20.

GB vs CHI (+2.5) - I am going to be wrong on this one, because it is a pride pick. I picked the Bears to win this division, and for a while it looked like they would. Then the injuries and incompetence happened. This game is in Soldier Field, and the Bears need a win desperately so that their season doesn’t spiral out of control. LET’S GO BEARS. Green Bay 24, Chicago 27.

WAS vs CLE (-1.5) - I don’t care if RGIII plays or not. I hated on the Browns early on this year but they have pleasantly surprised me this season. They could have easily been 7-6 right now. The Browns will give the Redskins a crushing blow, all but knocking them out of the playoffs. Washington can’t win out. Washington 17, Cleveland 23.

MIN vs STL (-2.5) - Who had these two teams contending for a playoff spot before this season started? Certainly not me. A lot of people are going to pick the Vikings because of the tear Adrian Peterson is having right now, but people forget how good the Rams are at home. In their dome, they have beaten the Redskins, Seahawks, and 49ers. I think they muster just enough offense, and contain AD enough to make Christian Ponder have to beat them. Which he won’t. Minnesota 16, St. Louis 20.

JAC vs MIA (-7.5) - I know the Jaguars are bad...but underdogs by over a touchdown? The Dolphins are trending up, but I see only a slim victory for them here. Chad Henne can keep the Jags in the game. Jacksonville 20, Miami 24.

TB vs NO (-3.5) - Three weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the hottest team in the league and looked like they were on pace for a playoff spot. Three losses later, their season is pretty much over. Now they have to go to the mad house that is the Superdome. Home team. Tampa Bay 21, New Orleans 31.

DEN vs BAL (+2.5) - The Ravens might be the most panicked 9-4 team in recent memory. Just a couple of weeks ago, this team was 9-2 with a home game coming up against the Big Ben-less Steelers. They blew that game, and choked last week against the Redskins and...Kirk Cousins? Seriously? My Super Bowl pick has had a long fall from elite in a very short time. Peyton is on a roll. Denver 31, Baltimore 24.

IND vs HOU (-7.5) - I have a feeling I’m going to be wrong on this one too, because it’s hard to cover big spread against a surging division opponent, especially with a struggling defense. But I think this is the week that the Texans drop the hammer. The Colts are feeling confident, and actually control their own destiny in the division. Houston is being doubted, and a win here wins the AFC South. They were rocked by New England, and have to be frustrated. Statement game here for the Texans who are still the number one seed in the AFC. Indianapolis 14, Houston 34.

SEA vs BUF (+5.5) - There’s nothing left to say anymore about the constantly underachieving Bills. They let ANOTHER win slip away at home last week by giving up a huge drive at the end of the game to the Rams and their juggernaut offense. Now Fred Jackson is out for the rest of the year, making all CJ Spiller owners smile. The Seahawks take care of business by a touchdown in Toronto. Seattle 24, Buffalo 17.

DET vs ARI (+5.5) - To cover a 5.5 point spread against the Cardinals, the Lions will only need to score 6 points. I think they have a pretty good shot of that, don’t you? The Cardinals have fallen so far. Detroit 23, Arizona 10.

CAR vs SD (-2.5) - I picked the Chargers to win two weeks in a row. They lost. I picked against them last week. They won. What’s going to happen this week? I think they can slow down Cam enough to win at home. Carolina 16, San Diego 23.

PIT vs DAL (+1.5) - This is essentially a elimination game, more so for the Cowboys but I think the Steelers would classify this as a must-win also, especially if the Bengals win tonight. I can’t believe I’m saying this...but I like the Cowboys in this game. One of my bold predictions before the season was for the Steelers to NOT make the playoffs, and I’m holding true to it. They looked horrendous against the Chargers at home last week, and now they have to go on the road to face a streaking Cowboys team in Big D. Not the same Pittsburgh team this year. Pittsburgh 20, Dallas 24.

KC vs OAK (-2.5) - Welcome to the “This Game Has The Potential To Be Worse Than The Cardinals-Jets Game” bowl. Raiders by a field goal. Kansas City 0, Oakland 3.

SF vs NE (-5.5) - I thought that if the Patriots were going to lose one of these tough home games the last two weeks, it would be last week against the Texans. I was wrong. I would absolutely love for the 49ers to upset New England here, but I don’t see it. Too many weapons for the Pats, and I don’t trust Colin Kaepernick. Solid win right here for the Patriots at home in December. Again. San Francisco 20, New England 31.

NYJ vs TEN (-1.5) - What a Monday Night battle royale! Two powerhouse teams right here. I can’t believe the Jets are only one game out of the playoffs. Two weeks ago they were arguably the worst team in the NFL. And you know what? Their schedule is easy enough to win out. They are toying with the hearts of Jets fans. I’m picking them to win, somehow. They can run on the Titans. New York 20, Tennessee 17.

NFL Week 14 Preview

Week 14 Preview

We have officially begun the fourth quarter of the NFL season. Each team has four games left and while less than half of the division races are still competitive, many playoff spots are still up for grabs, as is chances for the first round bye. It’s time for the real contenders to get hot (Giants), and the pretenders to crash (Cowboys). We’ll see if some of these sneaky hot teams can maintain their momentum into the playoffs (Bengals, Redskins), and which powerhouse might slip up before the postseason (Ravens, 49ers, possibly). We’ll also witness the exciting race for the number one overall pick! By the way, it’s still weird to think that the Eagles are only one game ahead of the Chiefs and Jaguars. No matter where they pick, there are going to be some scary defensive players available that they much need. Last week brought the highest of highs for Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Charlie Batch. Unfortunately, it also brought the lowest of the lows with that Cardinals-Jets game last week. Ugh. It would have been hilarious if I didn’t root for the Jets. That was embarrassing. Jacoby on Grantland sums up that game pretty well if you haven’t seen it. While there are some nice games on the slate for this week, there is one standout, and it is the Monday Night showdown between the Texans and the Patriots up in New England. Either Houston will officially establish themselves as the team to beat in the AFC, or the Patriots will prove that the conference still runs through them. But more on that later. Let’s get to the games.

DEN vs OAK (+10.5) - Normally this spread would turn me off in a heartbeat. A double digit line with a home underdog in a division game? Thursday Night games suck and need to be taken out of the schedule; the level of play declines dramatically. I originally took the Raiders and the points in this one. But you know what? The Broncos are on a roll. And more importantly, the Raiders are dreadful. That Carson Palmer trade looks more embarrassing by the week. I’m switching my pick to Mile High. I think a 17 point win is substantial. Denver 31, Oakland 14.

STL vs BUF (-3.5) - The Rams are surprisingly good this year but most of their success has come at home, not in Buffalo in the winter. The Bills looked pretty solid last week with their two-headed monster of Spiller and Jackson. They have ultimately had a disappointing season but are technically not out of it yet. And if you want to be taken seriously, Buffalo, you have to beat inferior teams at home. It’s time to step up and take care of business. St. Louis 13, Buffalo 24.

DAL vs CIN (-3.5) - This is basically a must-win for both teams here. I think the loser misses the playoffs no matter what. Here’s the problem with picking this game: I’m not a believer in either team. It’s going to be a close game, but I don’t think that the Cowboys can win a tough road game in December. I do think, however, that they can hang in there until the end, because the Bengals won’t be able to pull away with this one. That extra half point makes the difference in this one. Cincy wins by a field goal. So I’m taking Big D and the points. I just think that someway, somehow, that Cowboys will lose this game at the end. Whether it’s a penalty or a blown coverage to put the Bengals into field goal range, or a third down holding penalty to take themselves out of game-tying field goal range...they will find a way to lose. But I don’t think Cincinnati wins by more than four. The Cowboys will be put to rest. Dallas 24, Cincinnati 27.

KC vs CLE (-5.5) - Asking the Browns to cover by almost a full touchdown is a lot to ask. I’m amazed that the Chiefs were able to unite the way they did following the Belcher tragedy and win that game last week. Great heart and great effort. The question is, can they do it again? I say no. They will be mentally exhausted and come out flat, but keep it close enough to make sure they beat the spread. Trent Richardson is the difference in this one. Browns, close. Kansas City 13, Cleveland 17.

TEN vs IND (-5.5) - A lot of these medium spreads this week. Hard to make a decision on. And I literally just changed my mind as I am typing this. I originally was going to take the Titans and the points, but after seeing how awful they looked on offense last week albeit against the Texans, and how great Indy has been at home, I think that they win by a touchdown. The only chance Tennessee has is if Chris Johnson runs wild, which is a possibility. But the Colts are just a team of destiny this year with Andrew Luck leading the way and a sick coach to fight for. They go to 9-4. And as far as I’m concerned, Luck should be the Rookie of the Year. Tennessee 20, Indianapolis 27.

CHI vs MIN (+2.5) - I’ve had a strange feeling about this game all week. Not about the winner---I’m taking the Bears even without Urlacher. I just think that without him, the defense will not be as sharp, and I don’t think the running game will be that successful either. This game will come down to the arm of Jay Cutler. I think he’ll need to go for 300 yards and/or 3 TDs in this one. But I think he’ll come through and keep pace with Green Bay. Bears, close cover. Chicago 26, Minnesota 20.

SD vs PIT (-6.5) - Two bits of big news regarding these teams. First, Norv Turner and AJ Smith will reportedly be fired at the end of the season! Have hope for the future, San Diego! Also, Big Ben will be starting again for Pittsburgh. So have hope for the future, but not this game San Diego! Steelers had a big win last week in Baltimore to stay in the playoff hunt and they host a Chargers team that is just awful. Watch out for a late season run from the Steelers. San Diego 17, Pittsburgh 31.

PHI vs TB (-7.5) - How about the Eagles in the running for worst record in the NFL, and the Bucs with a shot at the playoffs? Who saw that coming? Here’s the two reasons I can’t take the Bucs to win big: Nick Foles now has a few starts under his belt, and Bryce Brown has run wild the last two weeks. And the Tampa defense is vulnerable. Imagine if Andy Reid had run the ball with Shady and Brown from the beginning of the season, with a healthy Vick? They would probably lead the league in rushing. Anyway, the Buccaneers are the better team, and they win by one touchdown. Which is enough for the Eagles to beat the spread. Philadelphia 21, Tampa Bay 28.

BAL vs WAS (-0.5) - This is a pick’em game, and it is scary. Another late switch, from the Redskins to the Ravens. Washington, with RGIII, has gotten really good, really fast. The Ravens, meanwhile, have looked more vulnerable and are still without Ray Lewis, scheduled to return next week. If he and Suggs are both healthy for the playoffs, watch out. But Baltimore had their routine blah game last week against the Steelers, and elite teams rarely lose twice in a row. I expect a small dropoff for RGIII against a great defense. Baltimore wins. Side note: I fear that Joe Flacco is becoming Philip Rivers, if they don’t win the Super Bowl this year. But that’s a story for another day. For now, I think he steps up and they gut out a tough one on the road to win the all-Maryland bowl. Baltimore 27, Washington 24.

ATL vs CAR (+3.5) - There’s been a lot of trash talk between these two division rivals and understandably so. The Panthers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory early this season in Atlanta, so an argument can be made that now that they are at home, Cam might be able to pull off the upset this time around. However, I’m not buying it. The Panthers had their shot and blew it, and I think the Falcons will come out angry and fly high. Atlanta 34, Carolina 20.

NYJ vs JAC (+2.5) - This is it for Sanchez. He already got benched last week, and if he falls behind against the lowly Jaguars then McElroy will come in and I think he will finish the season as well. Last chance. Meanwhile, that game last week was possibly the worst game I have ever watched. It didn’t even feel like the Jets won. Unfortunately, we might see round two this week against another abysmal offensive team in the Jags. Not excited to watch this one. I’m picking the Jets just to maintain my New York pride. But I do not think that the Jets should be favored. New York 20, Jacksonville 10.

MIA vs SF (-10.5) - The jury is still out on the Kaepernick experiment. I would have liked to see Alex Smith start, but now that Harbaugh went in a new direction, he’s gotta ride Kaep till the end. I don’t think this team can win a championship with him this year. He played very well against the Bears and Saints but really struggled against the Rams. Now the Dolphins are coming to town, which is a very winnable game, although Miami has an underrated defense which just played very well against the Pats. I think the 49ers win an ugly game, but not by double digits. I didn’t like Tannehill coming into this year but he’s been pretty good. Miami 22, San Francisco 27.

NO vs NYG (-5.5) - Probably the most exciting matchup between teams whose records add up to .500 ever. The Saints need a win, or will be most likely mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The Giants, meanwhile, looked sluggish on Monday Night against the Redskins, which is just what they planned. Now they have no breathing room. I almost want them to lose this game to fall to 7-6, so that next week when they go down to Atlanta next week they will be doubted, and unleash another dominating performance against a top team. But the Saints defense is bad enough to ensure that the Giants will be able to outscore New Orleans at home. But I’m taking the Saints and the points, because it’s hard to pick against Drew Brees in a must-win bounceback nationally televised game against a team who struggles at home and has an iffy secondary. Close win for Big Blue. First to 35. New Orleans 34, New York 37.

ARI vs SEA (-10.5) - I hope that the Cardinals are taking the challenge of finishing 0-12 seriously, because it would bring me much joy and entertainment. Apparently John Skelton is going to start. Who cares? They can’t score. Especially not in Seattle. The only catch is I don’t think the Seahawks will win by 11. Very low scoring game here. 7 sacks for Seattle. Arizona 9, Seattle 17.

DET vs GB (-6.5) - Blowout. Detroit 17, Green Bay 38.

HOU vs NE (-4.5) - Really? The Patriots are favored by that many points? This is going to be a battle between the top two teams in the AFC. The Patriots host the Texans and 49ers the next two weeks, and if they lose one of them it will be this one. Houston can control the clock and play defense as well. The Patriots are riddled with injuries at receiver, meaning that Welker and Hernandez will be the main targets for Brady. The Texans are undefeated on the road, and the Patriots are like undefeated in the second half of seasons since forever. My thoughts: Houston wins. New England falls. Texans all but clinch home-field. Can’t wait for this one. Houston 27, New England 20.