NFL Week 5 Preview

Week 5 Preview

Week 4 of the NFL season came and went, without much controversy under the regular referees (they did dodge a bullet on the missed Darren Sproles fumble in the Saints-Packers game, though). There weren’t really any true upsets but there were plenty of exciting close games that were decided in the final minute (congratulations Falcons and Eagles). There are some more intriguing match-ups this week again including the battle for Pennsylvania, the Manning-Brady bowl (Broncos edition), and a battle of two explosive offenses in the Falcons and Redskins. There is not a single game between two teams with losing records which means that there will be good match-ups and possible playoff implications. Let’s see what’s in store.

ARI vs STL (+1.5) - How about those Cardinals? A very surprising 4-0 start has them among only two other undefeated teams in the entire NFL. They have not necessarily looked that impressive on offense but Kevin Kolb has made the plays when he has had to which has led to three of their four wins being decided in the fourth quarter or later. Meanwhile, the Rams have been up and down but they are 2-0 at home and they might be able to sneak in an upset on a Thursday night game. This game will be close, and if the spread was +3.5 then I might have gone with the Rams, but at only +1.5 I’ll take the Cards to cover and win by a field goal. Arizona 20, St. Louis 17.

MIA vs CIN (-4.5) - Ryan Tannehill has looked much more impressive than I thought he would, but has only one win to show for his efforts. His time will come, but for now he is facing a tough Bengals team on the road, and I think it will be too much for him to overcome. No way Hartline goes for 253 again. Meanwhile, I’m not high on Cincy either but I think they make enough plays to squeak out a one-possession win. Two words: AJ Green. Two more words: barely cover. Miami 23, Cincinnati 28.

GB vs IND (+7.5) - The Packers have looked less than stellar this year, although they should obviously be 1-3. Their defense is much-improved which is a good sign, but the bad news is that Aaron Rodgers has shown weakness. They are a better team than the Colts and should be able to take care of a rookie quarterback, but I think Indy will put up more of a fight than expected. They are coming off a bye and are playing a vulnerable team at home. The spread says its a two-score game, but I don’t think so. I can’t go upset special on this game, but look out. Green Bay 31, Indianapolis 24.

BAL vs KC (+4.5) - I picked the Chiefs to win this game before the season started, even though I have the Ravens winning the Super Bowl. Baltimore has looked great, which is no surprise to me. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have looked like garbage. 6 turnovers against the Chargers??? What are you doing??? I will be rooting for the Ravens to win this game, but I’m going to back up my pick from preseason and put this down as the upset game of the week. Ravens will recover from it. But the Chiefs are desperate for a win and they’ll get it. Flacco 50+ throws. Baltimore 24, Kansas City 27.

CLE vs NYG (-9.5) - This is one of those classic games in which the Giants struggle, kind of like the Seattle game last year: going up against an inferior opponent at home. The odds should be on the Browns’ side to at least beat the spread. However, these are circumstances; the G-men have holiness on their side. Remember folks, God hates Cleveland. Weeden has been ok, but this isn’t the game for their first win. I’ll take Big Blue covering up the Browns. Cleveland 16, New York 31.

PHI vs PIT (-3.5) - When will the Eagles freaking lose a close game? The Browns, Ravens, and Giants all have not been able to seal the deal against Philly. Their three wins have been by a combined four points. They will not be able to keep this up, and I’m not saying that because I hate the Eagles. This week they run into a rested, angry, hungry 1-2 Steelers team, and although I’m also down on Pittsburgh this year, I think Big Ben plays his heart out. This is a huge game for them, and they will get it done against a tough team at home. Close, but coverable. Philadelphia 20, Pittsburgh 24.

ATL vs WAS (+3.5) - God damn Atlanta Falcons. Leave it to the Panthers to not be able to close the deal and finally give the Falcons their first loss. But Atlanta keeps winning, and are still undefeated. They bring their 4-0 record into Washington, land of the RGIII. There are a lot of home underdogs this week, and the Redskins are probably in the best position to pull off the upset. However, I made my upset pick already, and that means I do have the Falcons winning this game. I have a new philosophy: I want them to win as much as possible; that way, when they lose their first playoff game again, the loss will sting all the more. Atlanta 31, Washington 26. Close cover.

SEA vs CAR (-3.5) - What are you doing Carolina??????? How do you blow a game that you had the winning first down then lost it then stuck Atlanta on their own 1 yard line with under a minute and no time outs then give up a huge play and some other pass plays that set up the winning field goal then give up said field goal to a division rival resulting in being 1-3 and three games back after only four games of the season which is really four counting the tiebreaker....(hold on, gotta catch my breath). Meanwhile, the Seahawks have a great defense, no offense, and can’t win on the road yet. That said...Panthers win and cover (he said with no confidence). Seattle 16, Carolina 21.

CHI vs JAC (+5.5) - How about those Bears? I had them topping the Cowboys on Monday night, but I didn’t see that beatdown coming. They looked like the dominant team that I envisioned they would be at the end of the year. I feel confident. On the other hand, I do not feel confident in the Jaguars. Chicago 27, Jacksonville 13.

TEN vs MIN (-5.5) - Two pieces of good news: First, we have a Chris Johnson sighting! Second, I completely nailed that Viking win over Detroit last week. Just a little bit of self-promoting there. Anyway, to the game...Tennessee has no defense and no passing game and until very recently no running game. Minnesota has all of those things. Tennessee 17, Minnesota 27. Over/Under .5 return TDs for the Vikes?

DEN vs NE (-6.5) - Why couldn’t this game be in Denver? The Broncos would have more of a chance. I love those Peyton-Brady annual battles. Favorite player against least favorite player. Unfortunately, I don’t know if this Denver team is good enough to go into Foxborough and take on the Pats. One bright spot is that Aaron Hernandez, who imposed his will in that playoff game last year, will not be able to torch this Denver D again. The odds point to the Patriots winning this game by a touchdown. I want the Broncos to win. I’ll go halfway. Pats win, but don’t cover. That way if Denver can somehow pull off the upset, you’ll still win the match-up. Let’s see if Peyton Manning is truly back, and if he can once again take down his nemesis. Denver 24, New England 27.

BUF vs SF (-9.5) - How about that Buffalo defense in the second half last week? How about that 49ers defense giving up 48 points fewer to the Jets than the Bills allowed to them? No-brainer here. Buffalo 17, San Francisco 31.

SD vs NO (-3.5) - Is this it? Will the Saints finally get their first win of the season? I say YES! Geaux Saints! Who Dat? Woooo! 1-4! All the ingredients are there: Superdome, primetime game, “us against the world”, coming off a tough road loss, Brees and Sproles going against former team, this team is 3-1 but is notorious for taking naps and not living up to potential...San Diego 20, New Orleans 34. Dropping hammers.

HOU vs NYJ (+7.5) - The fact that this is only a 7.5 point spread is embarrassing to the Texans. They are the best team in the league right now. The Jets...are not. How are they supposed to score? They won’t. The Tebow chants will rain down in Metlife Stadium. Cover city all day, coming from a very ashamed New Yorker. Houston 27, New York 6. And it really won’t be that close. The Texans will virtually be able to take knees for the entire fourth quarter. Let’s see what Mark Sanchez is made of.