NFL Week 17 Preview

Week 17 Preview

This is it guys...Week 17. The last week of the regular season. The last chance to get into the playoffs, get a first round bye, or gain momentum going into next year. A quick word of advice: do NOT bet on Week 17. It’s too inconsistent. Some teams have nothing to play for, which means that they will go all guns blazing or else they will come out flat and uninspired. Teams that are in the unique position of having a seed locked up may rest their starters. Coaches trying to keep their jobs might unload the playbook or decide to go for it on 4th down at their own 30 in the first quarter. There are simply too many variables to account for in the last game of the season. The only game that has a division title riding on it is the Sunday Night matchup between the Cowboys and Redskins that could decide not only a playoff spot, but the future of coaches as well. The most important game, for more than just sports reasons, is Houston at Indianapolis. If the Texans lose, they can fall all the way out of a first round bye, while the Colts will be fueled by the return of Chuck Pagano. It’s been an unusually weak season for me picking games, but hopefully it was fun reading my posts. Playoff predictions will be coming up next week. I hope everyone had a great holiday, and to everyone out there, let me be the first to wish you a Happy New Year. Now let’s get to these picks for one final time in the 2012 NFL regular season.

TB vs ATL (-3.5) - This game naturally will be decided by how long the Falcons play their starters. We’ve heard that they will at least start this game, and therefore I’m taking the Falcons to defeat the struggling Bucs. Early prediction for 2013: big on J. Rodgers next year; Michael Turner is officially out of gas in the ATL. Tampa Bay 20, Atlanta 27.

NYJ vs BUF (-3.5) - What a mess of a game between two of the most underachieving teams in the league. I’m done with the Jets; I’m not a Tebow supporter or hater, but I would have liked to see him start at least a few times, just to see what he could bring. But it’s been clear for a while now that Rex would never give him a shot; he’s scared to death that if Tebow came in he would throw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns and probably cost Ryan his job. So now Sanchez gets the start. And if we’ve learned anything this year, it’s that he sucks. 3 interceptions in the cold, windy Buffalo atmosphere. Quick fun thought: what if Sanchez gets injured, or fakes an injury with McElroy already out? I think that before Rex goes to Kerley to run the wildcat for the entire rest of the game before he plays Tebow. I’m taking the Bills to win at home, by default, by six. New York 10, Buffalo 16.

BAL vs CIN (-2.5) - The Bengals have nothing to play for. The Ravens have a shot at a three seed. This game was so close to meaningful. I’m just taking the Ravens because I like them better. They’ll still most likely get the four seed. I still don’t really trust Andy Dalton. Baltimore 20, Cincinnati 17.

CHI vs DET (+3.5) - This pick is biased because I want the Giants to make the playoffs. Big Blue needs four things to happen: win, and have Chicago, Minnesota, and Dallas all lose. I want this to happen. So I’m picking the Lions to upset the Bears, even though if one of these things was most likely to go wrong, it would be Chicago taking this game and sneaking into the playoffs as a six seed. But like I said, I want the Giants to make the playoffs. So Lions pull the upset. Chicago 13, Detroit 21.

JAC vs TEN (-4.5) - Both of these teams suck. The Titans suck less. Seven turnovers combined between these teams. Two fired coaches? Jacksonville 10, Tennessee 17.

HOU vs IND (+3.5) - Game of the week. The Texans were 11-1, and now could very well lose their first round bye with a loss, with absolutely no momentum. They will most likely beat the Bengals and go up to New England and get killed. Meanwhile, the story of the year has been the resurgence of the Colts with Andrew Luck at quarterback and coach Chuck Pagano recovering from leukemia. He will return to the sidelines this week, and even though Indy has the 5 seed locked up, they will play their hearts out to win this game. And I think they do. One final time, ladies and gentlemen, say it with me: UPSET SPECIAL. The Texans blew their season last week by not showing up against Christian Ponder and the Vikings. All Colts this week. The magnitude of this win should not be understated. Houston 17, Indianapolis 27.

CAR vs NO (-4.5) - Another meaningless game. Cam and the Panthers have been playing very well the last few weeks, showing some positive signs for next season when they have a coach not named Ron Rivera. The Saints signed Sean Payton to a 5 year deal, and next year they are going to have an ultra F U season winning at least 12 games. Saints put on an aerial show to end the season, and they win comfortably. How is Drew Brees not in the Pro Bowl? Carolina 20, New Orleans 34.

PHI vs NYG (-7.5) - I don’t know what happened to the Giants this season...but at least they are still better than the Eagles. Even with Michael Vick. No team wants the Giants to somehow sneak into the playoffs. I hope they do. Philadelphia 21, New York 31.

CLE vs PIT (-6.5) - I had the Browns covering until I found out that Cleveland had to sign a kid off the practice squad to start at quarterback in Pittsburgh. Needless to say, I changed my mind. Cleveland 10, Pittsburgh 20.

KC vs DEN (-15.5) - This line is huge. I hate huge spreads. I’ve gotten killed on them all year long. I’m going with the Chiefs here, because sixteen points is quite a lot. When Denver gets a big lead, they coast to the end. The Broncos are going to win this game, taking eleven in a row into the playoffs, and I think they are going to get the number one seed. And the way I see it, I don’t know how they don’t make the Super Bowl. Tom Brady and the Patriots want no part in going to Denver to take on Peyton in his new house. Broncos by two touchdowns. Kansas City 13, Denver 27.

GB vs MIN (+3.5) - The plan for the Vikings is simple: win, and get in the playoffs. Their only problem is that they are playing a Packers team that needs to win to keep their second seed and first round bye. Adrian Peterson has had a miraculous season, one that should end with at least the Comeback Player of the Year. I also think he should get the MVP if he crosses 2,000 yards, and if the Vikings win this game and make the playoffs then it should be a lock. I have to take the Pack here, if only for the sake of my Giants, but AD has been phenomenal and deserves the Most Valuable Player award this season. Green Bay 26, Minnesota 19.

MIA vs NE (-10.5) - Destruction. But I’ll spend a second talking about the better-than-expected Dolphins heading into next season. They were supposed to be rebuilding, but it only took one season to become the second best team in the AFC East, and I like this team a lot as a wild card next season. The status of Reggie Bush is unknown, but I really like Lamar Miller out of Miami to have an increased role next year. They have exceeded expectations this year, and I think they have a chance at winning ten games next year. But they will be handled by a pissed off Patriots team this week. Miami 16, New England 38.

OAK vs SD (-4.5) - People of San Diego, rejoice!!!! It’s the last game with Norv Turner as head coach! I’m picking the Chargers simply because of how bad the Raiders are, but I would absolutely love to see Norv and Philip Rivers inexplicably blow a game late one last time, for old time’s sake. Oakland 13, San Diego 20.

ARI vs SF (-14.5) - This is an obvious game straight-up, but the point spread makes things interesting. You know what? I think the Cardinals cover. The 49ers seem a little off as a unit. Vernon Davis is banged up and Mario Manningham is out for the year. I’ve never been a fan of Colin Kaepernick in the first place, and that feeling is only getting stronger with those losses. The absence of defensive anchor Justin Smith will take its toll on this team if he does not come back for the playoffs, and the worst fear for this team has to be that the Giants will somehow sneak into the playoffs and face 49ers in the first round while they are not at full strength. This team can be beat, just not by the Cardinals. However, I think this is a ten point game; the Cardinals defense is not the reason why this team is awful. Arizona 14, San Francisco 24.

STL vs SEA (-10.5) - One of these teams is undefeated against the NFC West. The other team is the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams are 4-0-1 against NFC West opponents and have played surprisingly well this season under Jeff Fisher. However, the Seahawks are the hottest team in the league right now, and opponents do not make it out of Seattle alive. Going with the Seahawks comfortably, and if the Giants don’t make the playoffs, I think this team will be in the NFC Championship Game. St. Louis 9, Seattle 23.

DAL vs WAS (-3.5) - Here we go, the final game of the regular season. Winner takes the NFC East and controls the four seed in the playoffs, presumably immediately losing to the Seahawks. It has been a magical season for the Redskins, winners of six straight and riding the confidence of RGIII. The Cowboys meanwhile, have actually excelled in the second half of the season, with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant carving up defenses. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I kind of want the Cowboys to win this game. But there are three certainties in this world: death, taxes, and Big D coming up small in decisive games. The Redskins will win this division, keeping the Giants’ playoff hopes alive, and possibly threatening the jobs of Jason Garrett, Tony Romo and others. It also casts fear to the other teams in the division, that RGIII and the Redskins are here to stay for the next decade. Dallas 24, Washington 31.

So that’s it, folks, the end of the 2012 regular season. Good luck to all the teams that make the postseason, and here’s to another magical playoffs. Playoff predictions coming up next week. Happy New Year!

NFL Week 16 Preview

Week 16 Preview

With two weeks left in the regular season, the final spots for the postseason are still up for grabs, and the true winners will step up and take what is rightfully theirs. While the AFC is pretty much wrapped up except for seeding purposes, the NFC still can be jumbled up in many ways. There are 3 teams tied in the NFC East with 8-6 records, while the Bears and Vikings also share this record fighting for a Wild Card spot. All of these teams are one game behind Seattle, but if the Seahawks lose to the 49ers on Sunday, anything could happen. There are a couple of records in danger of falling this year as well. Adrian Peterson will most likely pass 2,000 yards and quite possibly even Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record by the end of the year. He is coming off a torn ACL that took place in Week 16 of last year, so he absolutely in my opinion should be Comeback Player of the Year. If the Vikings somehow make the playoffs, I think he should win MVP over Peyton Manning as well. But that is a tough task given that they play the Texans and Packers to end the season. The Redskins and Cowboys are both surging to the finish line, and if either of these teams makes it into the postseason, no one will want to face them. So, without further ado, here are my picks for Week 16, and who I think will put themselves in position to make the playoffs.

ATL vs DET (+3.5) - This one is pretty simple in my opinion. The Falcons, with a win, will clinch home field throughout the playoffs. The Lions are going backwards at 4-10 and a horrible loss to the Cardinals last week. So I think it’s a comfortable win for the Dirty Birds, but they still will lose in the second round of the playoffs, after their bye. Atlanta 31, Detroit 17.

NO vs DAL (-3.5) - The Saints have had a miserable season because of the aggressiveness of the Commissioner regarding the bounty punishments. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have been a surprising team and control their own destiny in the division. However, they have not had a convincing home win in a long time, and this one will be close too. But you know what? Tony Romo has been fabulous and the Saints defense has gotten torched more times than not this year. The Cowboys secondary will be good enough to contain the explosive wide outs for the Saints. And Big D will be one win away from the NFC East crown. First to 30. New Orleans 24, Dallas 31.

TEN vs GB (-12.5) - The Packers have had so many huge spreads at home this year and have not been good at closing teams out and winning big. While they should and will most likely win this game, I have to go with the Titans to keep this game close enough. Jake Locker has a lot of athletic ability and I really like his potential, and Chris Johnson is always a immediate big play threat. I’m taking the Pack by ten, give me the points in this one. Tennessee 17, Green Bay 27.

IND vs KC (+6.5) - I feel horrible for the people who had to watch the Chiefs-Raiders game last week. Miserable. Can Andrew Luck beat the terrible Chiefs by a touchdown to control the 5 seed? Yes. Indy will be playing emotional once again, with the news of Pagano’s recovery. This team is the best story in the NFL this year. Quick thought, does anyone realize that the Colts can feasibly make the AFC Championship Game? They could beat Baltimore or Cincy in round one, and face the Texans in round two, in which division games are always close. Watch out for that. Indianapolis 24, Kansas City 10.

BUF vs MIA (-4.5) - A moment of silence for what the Bills’ season could have been. It took the Dolphins one year to become the new team with potential in the AFC East. Buffalo 20, Miami 27.

SD vs NYJ (-2.5) - The Jets have finally benched their turnover machine of a quarterback in favor of someone with zero 

career NFL starts. The running game is almost average, but not quite. Their best receiver shares a name with one of the Three Stooges. The defense provides no pass rush, and is missing their best player. And this team is favored. What a mess that is out west under Norv. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2012 San Diego Chargers! Win number one for McElroy. San Diego 13, New York 20.

WAS vs PHI (+4.5) - It’s been a while, but...UPSET SPECIAL BABY!!!!! Word is that RGIII should be able to play in this game, but that’s ok. Doesn’t matter. LeSean McCoy is coming back this week, and even though the Redskins run defense is pretty solid, if Andy Reid finally grows a brain and feeds the two-headed monster potential of McCoy and Bryce Brown, and lets Nick Foles dink and dunk on this flawed Washington pass defense, the offense will be effective enough to win. This game relies on the Eagles’ defensive pursuit and ability to make tackles. Uh oh. I suddenly feel much less confident about this pick. But they are at home, and this is a pride game for Philly in front of their fans, and I think they 

play their best game of the year. Washington 20, Philadelphia 23.

CIN vs PIT (-4.5) - I’ve changed my pick for this game multiple times, with the spread and straight up as well. I have consistently ragged on the Bengals this year for not winning the games when it matters, and this one absolutely matters. If Cincy wants to be considered among the big boys of the AFC North, then they have to beat the Ravens and Steelers, both of whom are declining. I originally had the Steelers because of my lack of faith in the Bengals, but you know what? Pittsburgh has looked awful recently, and the Cincinnati D is ferocious. I picked the Steelers to miss the playoffs, and if the Bengals win this game, not only do they clinch a playoff spot, but they have a chance to take the division away from Baltimore in Week 17. I finally have faith in them. And you know what? They are probably going to let me down. But I’m riding with them. Not only to cover, but to win outright. The Bengals will clinch their spot in the playoffs in the Steel City on Sunday. Time to step up. Cincinnati 20, Pittsburgh 14.

STL vs TB (-3.5) - The Rams have shown signs of life under Jeff Fisher already, and I have a lot of hope for them to compete sooner rather than later. The Bucs have been spiraling down, but have shown good things this year, and I think Doug Martin goes off on this defense that got lit up by AD last week. Two touchdowns for Freeman as well. Solid win for the Buccaneers to get momentum heading into next year. Easy cover on this one. I’m trying not to laugh imaging Sam Bradford trying to lead his team from three touchdowns back. St. Louis 13, Tampa Bay 31.

OAK vs CAR (-8.5) - I mean, I know the Panthers have been good lately and Cam has rebounded really great, but laying eight and a half? Really? Two-possession game? I’m not buying it. Even to the horrid Raiders. Lots of garbage time potential in this one. One possession win for the Panthers. Oakland 16, Carolina 22.

NE vs JAC (-14.5) - Um...yeah...the Jags might be a little overmatched against the Patriots. In December. Angry coming off a loss. I don’t see how this isn’t a blowout. Unless Chad Henne goes wild throwing to Cecil Shorts and and Justin Blackmon, and the Patriots are caught napping. I’m going with the former. I’m so happy that the Pats lost last week, because it’s going to be really fun seeing them go to Denver and Peyton Manning getting his revenge. New England 41, Jacksonville 17.

MIN vs HOU (-7.5) - I was right about the Texans winning big in their statement game last week against the Colts. Here, they have a chance to lock up number one seed which is vital. The Vikings have been riding Adrian Peterson all season long, but the Texans have a dominant run defense. If AD can’t get his, then do you trust Christian Ponder trying to come back with no receivers, getting harassed by JJ Watt and friends? I don’t see it. Another decent, but not tremendous win for the Texans in this one. But I think they definitely cover. Minnesota 13, Houston 27.

CLE vs DEN (-13.5) - I originally thought that this line could not be high enough. The Browns just got embarrassed last week. Their 1st round QB and RB just lost at home, with a better defense, to a 4th round backup QB and a 6th round RB. The Redskins have drafted two quarterbacks better than Cleveland in this past draft. Meanwhile, the Broncos are surging, and will most likely take an 11 game win streak into the playoffs with a first round bye. As of right now, I think they are my Super Bowl favorite. But this game just smells funny...I think it’ll be one of those games that the score doesn’t indicate how one-sided the game actually was. And so I think the Browns keep it within two touchdowns. If the Broncos get a big lead, they just run the ball and show no effort to really score. So I’m taking the Browns and the points, but in terms of gameplay it will be very one-sided. Like 28-10 in the 4th and the Browns just have some garbage time score. Cleveland 16, Denver 28.

CHI vs ARI (+5.5) - Ok Chicago...you can’t be that bad right? I picked this team to go to the NFC Championship Game, and it looked like they would after that 7-1 start. But this team has imploded, and they need to win out to make the playoffs. The Cardinals had a misleading beatdown of the Lions last week; they got a couple of defensive scores to put the game out of reach, but it was a blowout because of the Lions’ ineptitude. I think the Bears take care of business to stay alive, but it’ll only be about a 7-10 point winning margin. Chicago 20, Arizona 13.

NYG vs BAL (+2.5) - The Ravens have to be the winner of the “wrong place, wrong time” competition this week. The Ravens are backing into the playoffs with no momentum whatsoever, and could even still lose the division. After a 9-2 start. Wow. My Super Bowl pick going down in flames. Meanwhile, the G-men officially have their backs against the wall. And the entire league has seen this story before. They don’t lose these games. And they won’t this time either. Big Blue takes care of business against the plummeting Ravens to stay in the playoff hunt. Eli time. New York 31, Baltimore 20.

SF vs SEA (+1.5) - There are two ways to look at the 49ers’ win over the Patriots last week. They dominated to get off to a 31-3 lead, and then collapsed to let the Pats tie it up before San Francisco ultimately won. There is only one way to look at Seattle’s win last week: domination. No team is playing better than the Seahawks right now, and they are unbeatable at home. And still, I am not a Kaepernick believer. I’ll trust him when I see him win a playoff game. I’m sipping the Russell Wilson kool-aid. This team is legit, and will only get better in years to come. The Seahawks have a statement game on Sunday Night, primetime, while the 49ers will suffer an emotional letdown after a big win last week. San Francisco 13, Seattle 24. The Pacific Northwest is back.

NFL Week 15 Preview

Week 15 Preview

ESPN is calling this Sunday “Showdown Sunday”. I’m just going to stick with Week 15. But this weekend is filled with multiple top matchups with many games between teams with winning records. Some surprising teams have made runs and are in the thick of the playoff hunt, such as the Rams and Vikings (playing each other!), Redskins, Bengals, Colts, and...wait for it...the Jets! With only three weeks to go in the regular season, winning is imperative to keep the year alive. So without further ado, let’s get into the Week 15 picks.

CIN vs PHI (+3.5) - The Bengals had a chance to make a statement last week, and ended up pulling a Dallas, against Dallas! They had a two-possession lead down the stretch, at home against the Cowboys! Every time you start to think they are legit, they slip up and show their true colors. Now they go off to Philly on a short week, to face a team, wait for it, coming off a nice win! The Eagles came back and took down the Bucs on the final play of the game last week. I think the Eagles fly high tonight and steal one at home. But they’ll need to cover AJ Green! Cincinnati 20, Philadelphia 23.

NYG vs ATL (-1.5) - The Falcons lost for the second time, again versus a division rival on the road. I refuse to get on the bandwagon; I don’t even think they are a top three team in the NFC. Now they face the Giants. Who win games against great teams, especially on the road. Here’s the thing: Big Blue can’t win out going into the playoffs, because then they won’t be doubted. So they will lose one of the next two games. I think they win this one; the Falcons aren’t ready for big time yet. New York 31, Atlanta 20.

GB vs CHI (+2.5) - I am going to be wrong on this one, because it is a pride pick. I picked the Bears to win this division, and for a while it looked like they would. Then the injuries and incompetence happened. This game is in Soldier Field, and the Bears need a win desperately so that their season doesn’t spiral out of control. LET’S GO BEARS. Green Bay 24, Chicago 27.

WAS vs CLE (-1.5) - I don’t care if RGIII plays or not. I hated on the Browns early on this year but they have pleasantly surprised me this season. They could have easily been 7-6 right now. The Browns will give the Redskins a crushing blow, all but knocking them out of the playoffs. Washington can’t win out. Washington 17, Cleveland 23.

MIN vs STL (-2.5) - Who had these two teams contending for a playoff spot before this season started? Certainly not me. A lot of people are going to pick the Vikings because of the tear Adrian Peterson is having right now, but people forget how good the Rams are at home. In their dome, they have beaten the Redskins, Seahawks, and 49ers. I think they muster just enough offense, and contain AD enough to make Christian Ponder have to beat them. Which he won’t. Minnesota 16, St. Louis 20.

JAC vs MIA (-7.5) - I know the Jaguars are bad...but underdogs by over a touchdown? The Dolphins are trending up, but I see only a slim victory for them here. Chad Henne can keep the Jags in the game. Jacksonville 20, Miami 24.

TB vs NO (-3.5) - Three weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the hottest team in the league and looked like they were on pace for a playoff spot. Three losses later, their season is pretty much over. Now they have to go to the mad house that is the Superdome. Home team. Tampa Bay 21, New Orleans 31.

DEN vs BAL (+2.5) - The Ravens might be the most panicked 9-4 team in recent memory. Just a couple of weeks ago, this team was 9-2 with a home game coming up against the Big Ben-less Steelers. They blew that game, and choked last week against the Redskins and...Kirk Cousins? Seriously? My Super Bowl pick has had a long fall from elite in a very short time. Peyton is on a roll. Denver 31, Baltimore 24.

IND vs HOU (-7.5) - I have a feeling I’m going to be wrong on this one too, because it’s hard to cover big spread against a surging division opponent, especially with a struggling defense. But I think this is the week that the Texans drop the hammer. The Colts are feeling confident, and actually control their own destiny in the division. Houston is being doubted, and a win here wins the AFC South. They were rocked by New England, and have to be frustrated. Statement game here for the Texans who are still the number one seed in the AFC. Indianapolis 14, Houston 34.

SEA vs BUF (+5.5) - There’s nothing left to say anymore about the constantly underachieving Bills. They let ANOTHER win slip away at home last week by giving up a huge drive at the end of the game to the Rams and their juggernaut offense. Now Fred Jackson is out for the rest of the year, making all CJ Spiller owners smile. The Seahawks take care of business by a touchdown in Toronto. Seattle 24, Buffalo 17.

DET vs ARI (+5.5) - To cover a 5.5 point spread against the Cardinals, the Lions will only need to score 6 points. I think they have a pretty good shot of that, don’t you? The Cardinals have fallen so far. Detroit 23, Arizona 10.

CAR vs SD (-2.5) - I picked the Chargers to win two weeks in a row. They lost. I picked against them last week. They won. What’s going to happen this week? I think they can slow down Cam enough to win at home. Carolina 16, San Diego 23.

PIT vs DAL (+1.5) - This is essentially a elimination game, more so for the Cowboys but I think the Steelers would classify this as a must-win also, especially if the Bengals win tonight. I can’t believe I’m saying this...but I like the Cowboys in this game. One of my bold predictions before the season was for the Steelers to NOT make the playoffs, and I’m holding true to it. They looked horrendous against the Chargers at home last week, and now they have to go on the road to face a streaking Cowboys team in Big D. Not the same Pittsburgh team this year. Pittsburgh 20, Dallas 24.

KC vs OAK (-2.5) - Welcome to the “This Game Has The Potential To Be Worse Than The Cardinals-Jets Game” bowl. Raiders by a field goal. Kansas City 0, Oakland 3.

SF vs NE (-5.5) - I thought that if the Patriots were going to lose one of these tough home games the last two weeks, it would be last week against the Texans. I was wrong. I would absolutely love for the 49ers to upset New England here, but I don’t see it. Too many weapons for the Pats, and I don’t trust Colin Kaepernick. Solid win right here for the Patriots at home in December. Again. San Francisco 20, New England 31.

NYJ vs TEN (-1.5) - What a Monday Night battle royale! Two powerhouse teams right here. I can’t believe the Jets are only one game out of the playoffs. Two weeks ago they were arguably the worst team in the NFL. And you know what? Their schedule is easy enough to win out. They are toying with the hearts of Jets fans. I’m picking them to win, somehow. They can run on the Titans. New York 20, Tennessee 17.

NFL Week 14 Preview

Week 14 Preview

We have officially begun the fourth quarter of the NFL season. Each team has four games left and while less than half of the division races are still competitive, many playoff spots are still up for grabs, as is chances for the first round bye. It’s time for the real contenders to get hot (Giants), and the pretenders to crash (Cowboys). We’ll see if some of these sneaky hot teams can maintain their momentum into the playoffs (Bengals, Redskins), and which powerhouse might slip up before the postseason (Ravens, 49ers, possibly). We’ll also witness the exciting race for the number one overall pick! By the way, it’s still weird to think that the Eagles are only one game ahead of the Chiefs and Jaguars. No matter where they pick, there are going to be some scary defensive players available that they much need. Last week brought the highest of highs for Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Charlie Batch. Unfortunately, it also brought the lowest of the lows with that Cardinals-Jets game last week. Ugh. It would have been hilarious if I didn’t root for the Jets. That was embarrassing. Jacoby on Grantland sums up that game pretty well if you haven’t seen it. While there are some nice games on the slate for this week, there is one standout, and it is the Monday Night showdown between the Texans and the Patriots up in New England. Either Houston will officially establish themselves as the team to beat in the AFC, or the Patriots will prove that the conference still runs through them. But more on that later. Let’s get to the games.

DEN vs OAK (+10.5) - Normally this spread would turn me off in a heartbeat. A double digit line with a home underdog in a division game? Thursday Night games suck and need to be taken out of the schedule; the level of play declines dramatically. I originally took the Raiders and the points in this one. But you know what? The Broncos are on a roll. And more importantly, the Raiders are dreadful. That Carson Palmer trade looks more embarrassing by the week. I’m switching my pick to Mile High. I think a 17 point win is substantial. Denver 31, Oakland 14.

STL vs BUF (-3.5) - The Rams are surprisingly good this year but most of their success has come at home, not in Buffalo in the winter. The Bills looked pretty solid last week with their two-headed monster of Spiller and Jackson. They have ultimately had a disappointing season but are technically not out of it yet. And if you want to be taken seriously, Buffalo, you have to beat inferior teams at home. It’s time to step up and take care of business. St. Louis 13, Buffalo 24.

DAL vs CIN (-3.5) - This is basically a must-win for both teams here. I think the loser misses the playoffs no matter what. Here’s the problem with picking this game: I’m not a believer in either team. It’s going to be a close game, but I don’t think that the Cowboys can win a tough road game in December. I do think, however, that they can hang in there until the end, because the Bengals won’t be able to pull away with this one. That extra half point makes the difference in this one. Cincy wins by a field goal. So I’m taking Big D and the points. I just think that someway, somehow, that Cowboys will lose this game at the end. Whether it’s a penalty or a blown coverage to put the Bengals into field goal range, or a third down holding penalty to take themselves out of game-tying field goal range...they will find a way to lose. But I don’t think Cincinnati wins by more than four. The Cowboys will be put to rest. Dallas 24, Cincinnati 27.

KC vs CLE (-5.5) - Asking the Browns to cover by almost a full touchdown is a lot to ask. I’m amazed that the Chiefs were able to unite the way they did following the Belcher tragedy and win that game last week. Great heart and great effort. The question is, can they do it again? I say no. They will be mentally exhausted and come out flat, but keep it close enough to make sure they beat the spread. Trent Richardson is the difference in this one. Browns, close. Kansas City 13, Cleveland 17.

TEN vs IND (-5.5) - A lot of these medium spreads this week. Hard to make a decision on. And I literally just changed my mind as I am typing this. I originally was going to take the Titans and the points, but after seeing how awful they looked on offense last week albeit against the Texans, and how great Indy has been at home, I think that they win by a touchdown. The only chance Tennessee has is if Chris Johnson runs wild, which is a possibility. But the Colts are just a team of destiny this year with Andrew Luck leading the way and a sick coach to fight for. They go to 9-4. And as far as I’m concerned, Luck should be the Rookie of the Year. Tennessee 20, Indianapolis 27.

CHI vs MIN (+2.5) - I’ve had a strange feeling about this game all week. Not about the winner---I’m taking the Bears even without Urlacher. I just think that without him, the defense will not be as sharp, and I don’t think the running game will be that successful either. This game will come down to the arm of Jay Cutler. I think he’ll need to go for 300 yards and/or 3 TDs in this one. But I think he’ll come through and keep pace with Green Bay. Bears, close cover. Chicago 26, Minnesota 20.

SD vs PIT (-6.5) - Two bits of big news regarding these teams. First, Norv Turner and AJ Smith will reportedly be fired at the end of the season! Have hope for the future, San Diego! Also, Big Ben will be starting again for Pittsburgh. So have hope for the future, but not this game San Diego! Steelers had a big win last week in Baltimore to stay in the playoff hunt and they host a Chargers team that is just awful. Watch out for a late season run from the Steelers. San Diego 17, Pittsburgh 31.

PHI vs TB (-7.5) - How about the Eagles in the running for worst record in the NFL, and the Bucs with a shot at the playoffs? Who saw that coming? Here’s the two reasons I can’t take the Bucs to win big: Nick Foles now has a few starts under his belt, and Bryce Brown has run wild the last two weeks. And the Tampa defense is vulnerable. Imagine if Andy Reid had run the ball with Shady and Brown from the beginning of the season, with a healthy Vick? They would probably lead the league in rushing. Anyway, the Buccaneers are the better team, and they win by one touchdown. Which is enough for the Eagles to beat the spread. Philadelphia 21, Tampa Bay 28.

BAL vs WAS (-0.5) - This is a pick’em game, and it is scary. Another late switch, from the Redskins to the Ravens. Washington, with RGIII, has gotten really good, really fast. The Ravens, meanwhile, have looked more vulnerable and are still without Ray Lewis, scheduled to return next week. If he and Suggs are both healthy for the playoffs, watch out. But Baltimore had their routine blah game last week against the Steelers, and elite teams rarely lose twice in a row. I expect a small dropoff for RGIII against a great defense. Baltimore wins. Side note: I fear that Joe Flacco is becoming Philip Rivers, if they don’t win the Super Bowl this year. But that’s a story for another day. For now, I think he steps up and they gut out a tough one on the road to win the all-Maryland bowl. Baltimore 27, Washington 24.

ATL vs CAR (+3.5) - There’s been a lot of trash talk between these two division rivals and understandably so. The Panthers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory early this season in Atlanta, so an argument can be made that now that they are at home, Cam might be able to pull off the upset this time around. However, I’m not buying it. The Panthers had their shot and blew it, and I think the Falcons will come out angry and fly high. Atlanta 34, Carolina 20.

NYJ vs JAC (+2.5) - This is it for Sanchez. He already got benched last week, and if he falls behind against the lowly Jaguars then McElroy will come in and I think he will finish the season as well. Last chance. Meanwhile, that game last week was possibly the worst game I have ever watched. It didn’t even feel like the Jets won. Unfortunately, we might see round two this week against another abysmal offensive team in the Jags. Not excited to watch this one. I’m picking the Jets just to maintain my New York pride. But I do not think that the Jets should be favored. New York 20, Jacksonville 10.

MIA vs SF (-10.5) - The jury is still out on the Kaepernick experiment. I would have liked to see Alex Smith start, but now that Harbaugh went in a new direction, he’s gotta ride Kaep till the end. I don’t think this team can win a championship with him this year. He played very well against the Bears and Saints but really struggled against the Rams. Now the Dolphins are coming to town, which is a very winnable game, although Miami has an underrated defense which just played very well against the Pats. I think the 49ers win an ugly game, but not by double digits. I didn’t like Tannehill coming into this year but he’s been pretty good. Miami 22, San Francisco 27.

NO vs NYG (-5.5) - Probably the most exciting matchup between teams whose records add up to .500 ever. The Saints need a win, or will be most likely mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The Giants, meanwhile, looked sluggish on Monday Night against the Redskins, which is just what they planned. Now they have no breathing room. I almost want them to lose this game to fall to 7-6, so that next week when they go down to Atlanta next week they will be doubted, and unleash another dominating performance against a top team. But the Saints defense is bad enough to ensure that the Giants will be able to outscore New Orleans at home. But I’m taking the Saints and the points, because it’s hard to pick against Drew Brees in a must-win bounceback nationally televised game against a team who struggles at home and has an iffy secondary. Close win for Big Blue. First to 35. New Orleans 34, New York 37.

ARI vs SEA (-10.5) - I hope that the Cardinals are taking the challenge of finishing 0-12 seriously, because it would bring me much joy and entertainment. Apparently John Skelton is going to start. Who cares? They can’t score. Especially not in Seattle. The only catch is I don’t think the Seahawks will win by 11. Very low scoring game here. 7 sacks for Seattle. Arizona 9, Seattle 17.

DET vs GB (-6.5) - Blowout. Detroit 17, Green Bay 38.

HOU vs NE (-4.5) - Really? The Patriots are favored by that many points? This is going to be a battle between the top two teams in the AFC. The Patriots host the Texans and 49ers the next two weeks, and if they lose one of them it will be this one. Houston can control the clock and play defense as well. The Patriots are riddled with injuries at receiver, meaning that Welker and Hernandez will be the main targets for Brady. The Texans are undefeated on the road, and the Patriots are like undefeated in the second half of seasons since forever. My thoughts: Houston wins. New England falls. Texans all but clinch home-field. Can’t wait for this one. Houston 27, New England 20.

NFL Week 13 Preview

Week 13 Preview

Week 12 was quite a weekend in football, in which two plays defined seasons for two teams. First, no one can forget Thanksgiving night, when Mark Sanchez ran into his own offensive lineman untouched, promptly fumbling and allowing the Patriots to get yet another return touchdown. Then there are the nap time Chargers, who, just when it looked like they were in line for another win, gave up a 4th and 29 conversion to the Ravens and ended up losing in overtime. FOURTH AND TWENTY-NINE. How does that happen? It looks like Norv Turner will join Andy Reid in getting the axe after this season. This week there are more marquee matchups starting tonight with the Saints at the Falcons and ending on Monday Night with the Giants at the Redskins. This week is the first Sunday that we will be in December...behold the greatness of cold weather football. Let’s see if I can do better with my picks this week.

NO vs ATL (-3.5) - The Saints have owned the Falcons in recent years, winning 11 of the past 13 games between these two division rivals. Matt Ryan has had one “win this game to prove that you are elite” game this season, and he lost it. It was the game in New Orleans when he couldn’t win the game with four shots inside the five. With that said, I think the Saints’ loss last week against the 49ers was demoralizing, as they needed that win to stay in legitimate playoff contention. I’m going to be rooting for Who Dat to win, but I’ve got the Falcons by four in this one, barely covering. Either way, it’s going to be a competitive game. New Orleans 30, Atlanta 34.

JAC vs BUF (-6.5) - I’m convinced that the Bills cannot blow anybody out, and it is a lot to ask for them to beat anybody by at least a touchdown. Even the Jags, who are dreadful, but who look like the Patriots with Chad Henne at the helm. I think the Bills will win this game because they are at home against a warm weather team, but I’m taking the Jags and the points. Jacksonville 19, Buffalo 24.

SEA vs CHI (-4.5) - The main news coming from Seahawks camp is the probable four game suspension that will be coming for beastly cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. They blew a golden opportunity to solidify their position as the number six seed in the NFC and have no more cushion. They have proven that they need to play a perfect game to win on the road. Meanwhile, the Bears are as good as anyone with Cutler at quarterback, even with injuries to Matt Forte, Devin Hester, and Charles Tillman. Bears win comfortably. Seattle 13, Chicago 27.

IND vs DET (-4.5) - I think the Colts will win straight up anyway, but if you’re asking me whether the motivated team on a mission can lose by less than five points on the road against a self-destructive team with a three-game worse record...I’ll take those odds. Indianapolis 27, Detroit 20.

MIN vs GB (-9.5) - The Vikings are on the decline with their gauntlet of a stretch run. However, they still have Adrian Peterson and enough of a defense to hang with the cheeseheads in a division game. The Packers are a superior team, but I think that this will be a single digit game. As long as they can contain Aaron Rodgers. Minnesota 20, Green Bay 28.

HOU vs TEN (+5.5) - Last time these two teams played, the Texans demolished the Titans but Chris Johnson had a pretty good game on the ground. This time it is in Tennessee, and Houston is tired. They have played two overtime games in the span of five games and are banged up. I’m picking the Texans to win, barely, because they have been dominant all year. I was tempted to pick this game as an upset, but I’m not prepared to go that far. Houston 23, Tennessee 20.

CAR vs KC (+3.5) - The Chiefs suck eggs. Carolina 24, Kansas City 14.

SF vs STL (+7.5) - Really? 7 and a half points? These two teams played to a tie in San Fran, and the Rams play really well at home. The difference, of course, is Colin Kaepernick, but do you think he’s worth two possessions? I don’t. I think the Rams keep this one close enough to cover. San Francisco 24, St. Louis 19.

NE vs MIA (+7.5) - Same situation as the game above: superior team on the road against a division opponent who has overachieved this year. Different result: Patriots roll. They are scoring at a mythic pace, and haven’t lost in the second half of seasons since 2010. A lot of points again. New England 34, Miami 20.

ARI vs NYJ (-4.5) - Wow. Ugly matchup. Two teams with pretty good defenses and horrific offenses. So I’ll keep this simple. Jets win by less than five points. Under 35 total points. Arizona 14, New York 17.

TB vs DEN (-6.5) - The Bucs were on fire until last week when they lost to the Falcons by one. Now they have to travel to Denver, who are even more on fire than themselves. Peyton has been the frontrunner for MVP and is looking forward to torching this porous Buccaneers defense. I think that the Broncos impose their will on Sunday. Another game of 300 and 3 TDs for 18. Tampa Bay 17, Denver 31.

CLE vs OAK (-0.5) - It’s a pick’em game between two horrible teams. The Browns have looked better. The Raiders are at home. I’m tempted to call a tie. Instead, I’ll go with a Janikowski field goal in OT. Cleveland 10, Oakland 13.

CIN vs SD (+1.5) - I hate both these teams. But the Chargers aren’t going anywhere. So I want them to knock off the Bengals. I can’t believe I am picking the Bolts to win anything. But here goes nothing. Cincinnati 17, San Diego 20.

PIT vs BAL (-6.5) - It looks like Big Ben is not going to play, but this game is always competitive. I’m taking the points on this one, because the Steelers have too much pride to get blown out. Pittsburgh 13, Baltimore 17.

PHI vs DAL (-9.5) - There are four certainties in life: death, taxes, God hates Cleveland, and NEVER PICK THE COWBOYS TO BEAT A BIG SPREAD AT HOME. They can’t do it. Cowboys win, close. Philadelphia 23, Dallas 30.

NYG vs WAS (+2.5) - What a game this is. Both teams look really good. Super Bowl MVP vs the incredible rookie. Redskins trying to pull within one game of the division. A lot of storylines in this one. But there’s only one team you can pick in December in a big game on the road. Eli and Big Blue. To show the world again who are the beasts of the East. New York 34, Washington 24.

NFL Week 12 Preview

Week 12 Preview

Before I begin my picks for Week 12, I would first like to wish all my readers a Happy Thanksgiving. It’s the day of Three F’s: Family, Food, and Football. This is the point of the season when either the real contenders step up and separate themselves from the pack, or teams stumble and allow hot organizations to get in the playoff mix. They say it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. Well, this is the beginning of the stretch run to end the season. And I think there are going to be a lot of crazy results this week. I’m not messing around with these predictions this weekend. So let’s get to it, starting with a Turkey Day Triple Header.

HOU vs DET (+3.5) - The obvious downside of picking the Texans is pointing out the fact that they are playing a 12:30 Thursday game on the road after enduring a should-never-have-been-that-close OT win at home just four days ago. But I think they got their bad performance out of the way. They will come to play on a national stage. Their defense will be back in form. Even coming off a 527-yard day, I would still take the Under on 300 for Schaub in this one; I think they are going to pound Foster to regain their balance. Player of the Game: JJ Watt. Houston 27, Detroit 13.

WAS vs DAL (-3.5) - A lot of implications in this one. We know RGIII is not afraid of a huge stage. They can keep their season alive with a big win in Big D. The Cowboys meanwhile, are right back in the playoff hunt with a couple of wins in a row and an easy schedule ahead. This game pretty much boils down to one question: do you think the Cowboys are going to break everyone’s hearts now, or later? I’m going with now. Griffin is going to shut down this Dallas momentum. I’m a believer. Redskins go on the road and earn a tough win. 3 total TDs for RGIII. Washington 24, Dallas 21.

NE vs NYJ (+6.5) - Really wish this spread was 7.5 but it is what it is. I was all ready to put this one in blowout territory until Gronk went down last week on point number 59. Reports are Aaron Hernandez is returning but how much production can you expect from him? With no big threat in the middle, the Pats are going to have to rely on their receivers getting open, and the Jets have done a good job in the past of jamming receivers and throwing off Brady’s timing. I think they try and run more, with Woodhead getting at least 1 TD against the team that cut him. The Jets played this game tough in Foxborough and this is a pride game. Their season is over, but they have this one chance on national television to prove that they are not clowns, and take out their hated rival at home to give New Yorkers something to be very thankful for. I’m going with an outright win for the home team because I’m a Jets fan, but even if I wasn’t I would still grab those points. Sanchez puts together a gem, they pick off Brady twice, and have a D/ST touchdown in this one. Huge win. New England 24, New York 27.

MIN vs CHI (-5.5) - It is yet to be known whether Jay Cutler will play or not, but I would take the Vikings and the points no matter what. Divisional games are always close, and the Bears have lost two in a row, albeit to two powerhouses. They can be run on, and AP is coming to town. If Cutler is out, I think this one could end up being another upset, but if he plays then it’s a close win. So I’ll throw out two scores with for possibility. JC OUT: Minnesota 23, Chicago 16. JC IN: Minnesota 17, Chicago 20.

OAK vs CIN (-7.5) - I know these teams are heading in different directions, but is Andy Dalton really being given over a TD? I’m tempted to go upset on this one but I don’t trust the Raiders on the road enough for that. But I think it will be at least a one possession game. The Raiders should double AJ Green on every play. If not triple. Make someone else beat you. My prediction: Cincy will have a 3rd and 2 needing a first down to ice the game and the Raiders will jump offsides for the first. Tight game though. You know Carson Palmer wants this one badly. Oakland 23, Cincinnati 24.

PIT vs CLE (+3.5) - Another “don’t have enough balls to call it an upset” game. The Browns are sneaky good, they just have not been able to put together a complete game. They will be at home against a banged up Steelers team with Charlie Batch starting at quarterback, as a classic trap game in between the two with Baltimore. The line is 3.5, and I’m taking the Steelers by 2 with my exact score. But I like Cleveland and the points to prevail, even if it isn’t quite an upset. I’ve correctly predicted all 10 of the Browns’ games (straight up), and I don’t plan on losing now. But watch out for this one. Like I said, it’s going to be a chaotic week. Pittsburgh 21, Cleveland 19.

BUF vs IND (-3.5) - If this was in Buffalo then I would take the Bills to win. But it’s not. It’s in Indy. Where ChuckStrong will be in full force. I don’t think this is a blowout, but I think it’s comfortable enough for Indy. Andrew Luck showed last week that he isn’t quite ready to take on the big boys, but the potential is there. This kid is going to be a superstar sooner rather than later. I think he’ll respond here with an impressive game. I’m going specifics on his line, because why not? 27-42, 307 yards, 3 total TD, 1 INT. Let’s go. Buffalo 20, Indianapolis 31.

DEN vs KC (+10.5) - The only thing that scares me about this one is that the Broncos will not take the Chiefs seriously, let them hang around, and then win late when KC inevitably turns it over on the potential winning drive. But that’s a small worry. Give me 18. That’s the number of Peyton Manning, and what the winning margin of this game will be. Cover city on a big spread...what could possibly go wrong? Bold Prediction: Eric Decker gets 3 TD receiving. Denver 31, Kansas City 13.

SEA vs MIA (+2.5) - The Dolphins are better than I thought they would be...but I like the Seahawks more than the Bucs for that final wild card spot in the NFC so I’m riding with them. Third rounder beats first rounder. Seattle 20, Miami 14.

ATL vs TB (+0.5) - The Atlanta Falcons have to be the most unappreciated 9-1 team ever. And I’m part of that skepticism. They have no recent history to fall back on. They have zero impressive wins (I’m not counting the win over Peyton in Week 2; first road game back, 3 INTs in first quarter, almost blew a 20 point cushion), and in their one “win this to prove you are for real” game in New Orleans, Matt Ryan again came up short and couldn’t win the game from inside the 5. They can’t get it done. They have the best record in football but haven’t proven anything. They should have lost to Carolina, Oakland, and Arizona. In the NFC, which of the top teams do you think they can they beat in a playoff game, even at home? Not the 49ers. Probably not the Giants, Bears, and Packers, either. They cannot be taken seriously. Now they have another tough test going into red hot Tampa Bay. And you know what? I think Matt Ryan comes up short again. These Bucs are clicking. I had the Panthers winning this division, but I picked the wrong NFC South team to break out, I guess. Right now, Tampa is playing better football than the Falcons. They prove it on Sunday. Doug Martin is for real. Josh Freeman has finally progressed whereas Mark Sanchez has not (they were taken in the same draft, Sanchez at 5, Freeman at 17). They have a big play threat in V-Jax. It’s a one-possession game that the Bucs find a way to win. Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 31.

TEN vs JAC (+2.5) - The Jags had their chance last week to prove themselves. Chad Henne came off the bench and had 400 yards and 4 TDs. And they still lost. Go away, Jacksonville. Chris Johnson alert: possible 150 and 2 TD game coming up off a bye against a bad team. Tennessee 27, Jacksonville 10.

BAL vs SD (+0.5) - I picked this Chargers win before the season and I’m not backing down. I talked about a potential trap game for the Steelers; this is it for the Ravens as well. As disappointing as San Diego has been the last few years, they just seem to play well against Baltimore. The Ravens have to travel out west in between Steeler games against a team who is desperate for a win and have to make one final stand to show that they aren’t the Eagles of the AFC. All the ingredients are there. The Ravens were my Super Bowl pick, but I’ve had this one booked for months. Don’t let me down, San Diego. Baltimore 20, San Diego 26.

SF vs NO (+1.5) - Colin Kaepernick was fantastic against the Bears on Monday Night and will reportedly take over the starting gig from Alex Smith. I don’t like this decision. Not yet. Smith deserves to start for the rest of the year. After all, he played well enough to get this team to the Super Bowl last year. And while Kaep played great in his first ever start...welcome to the Superdome. The Saints have an awful defense, but this game is going to be different. I think Harbaugh will already have bad karma for the QB change. The Saints want revenge for their heartbreaking playoff loss in San Francisco last year. First road start for Kaepernick. Saints hot and firing on all cylinders, with a possible return for Sproles. I don’t think the 49ers make it out of New Orleans alive. Saints, convincingly. 2 dunks for Jimmy Graham. San Francisco 17, New Orleans 31.

STL vs ARI (-2.5) - Who cares? Bad against bad. Cardinals win by three because of their defense at home. 2 offensive touchdowns combined in this one. This is a draft order game. St. Louis 10, Arizona 13,

GB vs NYG (-2.5) - The Giants have mastered the art of the 16 game season. They were off to a smoking start but have looked dreadful the last few weeks. Big Blue had their bye last week to regroup and get ready for the sprint at the end to put the division away. The Pack are hot and are hungry to avenge their playoff loss from last year. But this game in MetLife Stadium. The Giants are more complete. They have been struggling, but this is what they want. Us against the world, taking on a powerhouse, national television...it’s perfect. The G-Men are going to completely steal all of Green Bay’s momentum. Statement game. Green Bay 24, New York 37.

CAR vs PHI (-2.5) - Who would have thought that whoever loses this game is going to have to worst record in the NFC? This was supposed to be a Monday Night showdown between the superstar Cam and the dynamic Michael Vick. The Eagles will be starting rookies at QB and RB. The Panthers are better than 2-8. They blew the game last week to Tampa. They blew a game early in Chicago. They choked away the Atlanta game. They easily could have beat Seattle and Dallas at home instead of suffering tight losses. This team could very well be .500 if they could close games. And that sound you hear is Andy Reid’s job on life support. Or is that him calling a timeout before the game even starts? I’ve got the Panthers. Carolina 24, Philadelphia 17.

Well, there you have it. What a slate of games to begin the finish. I said I had some wild predictions; I have 6 underdogs winning straight up and 3 more beating the spread. Good luck this week everyone, and Happy Turkey Day.

NFL Week 11 Preview

Week 11 Preview

Week 10 possessed a lot of firsts: The Chiefs’ first lead, the Falcons’ first loss, and the first tie in four years (aka the most unproductive half hour in eternity). I don’t want to brag, but I had the Cowboys and Eagles at a tie at 24 last week. I just got the wrong late afternoon game. It was the Rams and 49ers, and I even nailed the score. So close. It was also the Week of Injured Quarterbacks, with Michael Vick, Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, and Big Ben all going down. As of right now, it looks like Smith is the only one looking probable to play, which makes a difference in my predictions, so I’ll do my best to speculate. Last week also made me furious. I talk all the time about how I hate big, double digit spreads. I took the favorites in all three of such games in Week 10. I lost on all of them. Never again. Anyway, I got over half of my predictions right last week, so let’s see if I can build on that. Side note: I am very thankful that the Giants have a bye this week. Now they can regroup and begin their late-season dominance.

MIA vs BUF (-1.5) - The Dolphins got absolutely obliterated last week in a game that could have won to go back over .500. The Bills put up their second valiant effort against the Patriots this season but again fell short, which has been a trend the last few years. They fall to 3-6 and have an easy schedule down the stretch but it might be too big a hole to overcome. I do think playing at home on a short week that they get this win against a underrated Dolphins team, though, as possibly the start of a late run. No turnovers Ryan Fitzpatrick, please! Miami 20, Buffalo 24.

ARI vs ATL (-9.5) - Talk about the tale of two seasons for the Cardinals. They started out 4-0, only to lose their next five games. They just had the bye to regroup, but it doesn’t get any easier. The Falcons rarely lose at home and they are ready to get back on the field to show the world that their first loss was a blip, not a trend. I’m going to go with the Falcons by exactly ten here, so they cover the spread. The deciding factor will be if the Cards can score enough points to keep up. Arizona 17, Atlanta 27.

CLE vs DAL (-7.5) - I don’t know why anyone would lay 7.5 on the Cowboys at home against a pesky Browns team that can run the ball and are coming off a bye. Romo is spectacular in November, but I think this will only be a tight win, as is the norm with this team. Give me the Dawg Pound and the points. Cleveland 23, Dallas 27.

GB vs DET (+3.5) - As much as I would like the irrelevant Lions to slow down the Packers’ momentum, I don’t see it. This team is on a mission, and if Jordy Nelson comes back it will only enhance the offense. First to 30. Green Bay 34, Detroit 24.

CIN vs KC (+3.5) - Both teams are coming in with momentum. The Bengals just decimated the Giants at home last week, and the Chiefs finally had a lead! They had a shot to win that game against the Steelers on Monday Night, too, they just made too many mistakes, because, you know, they are the Chiefs. However, I’m not a believer in Cincy, especially on the road, and this KC team has too much talent to keep losing so horribly. I’m not going full upset special on this one, but since its a 3.5 point spread, I’ll take the Chiefs to either win or lose by a field goal. This will not be a blowout. Matt will be King of the Cassel, King of the Cassel. Cincinnati 20, Kansas City 21.

NYJ vs STL (-3.5) - I’m embarrassed to be a New Yorker watching the Jets every week. They are awful. I hope they get destroyed. I hope they lose out and have a top five draft pick. They need a complete overhaul. As for the Rams, HOW DO YOU NOT CLOSE THAT GAME OUT LAST WEEK??!?!?!!!!?!? It was a road win against San Fran, there for the taking. What an awful matchup this is. But the Jets are more pathetic. Give me any team against them! Rams win. New York 13, St. Louis 23.

PHI vs WAS (-3.5) - This game comes down to one question: do you think RGIII can outscore Nick Foles by 4 at home? Yes. Maybe the Eagles will actually run the ball now to take pressure off their rookie quarterback! FREE SHADY!!!! The Eagles are spiraling down into oblivion, and Andy Reid’s days in Philly are coming to an end. This one will be the dagger. Philadelphia 20, Washington 30.

TB vs CAR (+1.5) - I’m not going upset special on this game either because the spread is too close to call it an upset, but I am picking Carolina to win this game. The Bucs have been fantastic in my opinion, and have a young nucleus. Remember, their two best offensive lineman are both out (Joseph and Nicks). Doug Martin is a beast, and Josh Freeman has bounced back. But I think the Panthers have one more fight left in them. This will be a pride game for the Panthers, and I think they pull together and win one to prove that there are, in fact, four quality teams in the NFC South. Cam won’t be 2-8. Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 23.

JAC vs HOU (-15.5) - FIFTEEN AND A HALF POINTS?????? Wow. I know there is a huge difference between these teams, but...that’s a lot. Look: Once again, I hate huge spreads. They screwed my over last week. I picked the Jags to beat the spread when they went into Lambeau a few weeks ago and they came through. I’m taking them again. NOT to win. Just to lose by less than 16. Jacksonville 14, Houston 27.

NO vs OAK (+4.5) - This one will be an air show. 110 combined passes. 700 combined passing yards. 5 combined touchdown passes. At least. Book it. So now you have to ask yourself one question: who would you pick to win a shootout, Drew Brees or Carson Palmer? This one might be first to 40. But I think Carson throws a garbage time touchdown to get it close. I’m taking OAK and the points. New Orleans 38, Oakland 34.

SD vs DEN (-7.5) - The Chargers had their chance to beat the Broncos: Monday Night a few weeks back when they let a 24 point halftime lead at home slip away. They won’t have a shot this time. It’s going to be the Peyton Manning show. This is my blowout game. Comfortable win for 18. San Diego 21, Denver 38.

IND vs NE (-9.5) - Same rivalry, but it will be a battle of number 12s instead of the Manning-Brady bowl. This is going to be a great game. And I think this spread is too high. Actually, I think that the Colts have a chance to win this game outright, but I don’t have the balls to call it. The Pats are banged up and they’ve been living on the edge this year. The secondary got torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick, and now they have Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne coming to town. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was an overtime game. How fitting would it be if the game came down to a Vinatieri field goal? I’m taking the Patriots to barely escape. By the way, I hate New England, but late Sunday afternoon games in Foxborough are great. Indianapolis 31, New England 34.

BAL vs PIT (-3.5) - No Big Ben is no win for the Steelers in my opinion. In football’s most physical rivalry, Ben was a lethal weapon with his size and playmaking ability; now Pittsburgh is going to have the statue that is Byron Leftwich in the pocket. Not a recipe for success. I would have had the Steel City coming away with this win if Ben was on the field, but I’m flipping. The Ravens lost their heart and soul, but they will still be 8-2. My Super Bowl pick hanging in there. Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 13.

CHI vs SF (-4.5) - What an awful game to pick. If Cutler plays, I am taking the Bears with the points. If he doesn’t, I’m taking the 49ers by a touchdown. But if Alex Smith doesn’t play either, I think Kaepernick would get eaten alive and the game would be first to 10. I’ll update my prediction to this game on Sunday or Monday. But for now, I’ll take Da Bears. Chicago 16, San Francisco 19.

NFL Week 10 Preview

Week 10 Preview

It’s no secret if you’ve been following my picks that this has been a pretty disappointing season so far. I’ve had a few good weeks and had some decent upset picks, but overall I’ve struggled, going by the standards I set for myself. So now that we are on the back end of the season, in double digit weeks, I’m hoping that I’ll be able to close strong. Week 10 has some really high spreads, which I hate, and which also means that there aren’t that many competitive games. There is only one game between two teams under .500: Cowboys at Eagles. The best game of the week is quite obvious: the Sunday Night Football match-up between the Houston Texans and the Chicago Bears, a potential Super Bowl preview. There are a couple of intriguing divisional games but no more blockbusters. With that said, here are my Week 10 picks for you.

IND vs JAC (+3.5) - The Jaguars stink. There’s no way around it. They have no strengths. Meanwhile, the Andrew Luck bandwagon is rolling strong with the Colts on a winning streak and currently holding the 6th seed in the AFC. For those thinking that this game will be a blowout, remember two things: First, that home teams have played much better on Thursday Night. Second, the Jags beat the Colts in Indy earlier this year with a late touchdown for their only win so far this year. This game will be tight. But Luck will be the best player on the field tonight. Indianapolis 24, Jacksonville 20.

NYG vs CIN (+4.5) - The Bengals have fallen off and are struggling in Andy Dalton’s second year. Meanwhile, the Giants are inexplicably dreadful in November. However, the G-Men own the road, they got embarrassed last week, and Coughlin called the D-line “soft” after the performance against the Steelers. This team wants a win going into the bye, and I think they will play angry after last week. Wrong place, wrong time for the Bengals. Two for two with road favorites. New York 27, Cincinnati 17.

TEN vs MIA (-6.5) - The Titans are impossible to predict; they beat the Lions and Steelers, but have more recently blown a game against Indy and last week got absolutely murdered by the Bears. The Dolphins have pleasantly surprised me, and are already the second best team in the AFC East in only Tannehill’s rookie season. It’s a Miami win at home to improve to 5-4, but I’m going to say the win by less than a touchdown. I think the Titans are playing for pride, and they will keep it close on the road. Low-scoring game if the Titans want to have a chance. Tennessee 16, Miami 21.

DET vs MIN (+2.5) - How about the Vikes getting points at home against a streaky team? The Lions are on a roll but they haven’t beaten anyone impressive and now they have to go on the road against a division rival who can play the “nobody believes in us” card since they are home dogs with a better record. I wasn’t buying Detroit before the season started, and I’m not buying them now. I’m taking the Vikings all the way in this game. Two words: Percy Harvin. Detroit 17, Minnesota 20.

BUF vs NE (-11.5) - The game in Buffalo was a big spread and the Bills owned the first half before being completely demolished in the second half. I really hope they can keep it close. But I just don’t see it. I’m going with the Pats big in this one even though I hope I’m wrong. Too much firepower. The Bills can start looking forward to next season. If there was ever a time for a Mario Williams sighting...this is it. Buffalo 20, New England 35.

ATL vs NO (+2.5) - Usually I don’t count 2.5 points as qualified to be an Upset Special, but I’m making an exception this week because it’s going to be the fall of an undefeated team. The Falcons are the lone undefeated team in the NFL, but they are running into a Saints team at home with the season on the line. Drew Brees has struggled the last couple of weeks but I think he carves up this secondary. Who Dat nation was big on Monday Night, but I think this week they will be enormous. The Saints will come marching in. Atlanta 24, New Orleans 30.

SD vs TB (-3.5) - Just because the Chargers beat up on the Chiefs last Thursday Night doesn’t mean that they have woken up from their nap yet. Remember, that game was close late until a couple of defensive touchdowns broke it open. And it was the Chiefs. This time San Diego will be going on the road to take on the Muscle Hamster and the surging Buccaneers. Vincent Jackson will be foaming at the mouth for this one. I’m going with the Bucs. San Diego 21, Tampa Bay 30.

DEN vs CAR (+3.5) - The Panthers won an important game last week in Washington, but that was against a rookie quarterback, even though RGIII has been sensational. Now Carolina gets Peyton Manning, who is as good as ever, and is one of the favorites for MVP already. The Broncos have gotten better every week, and the rest of their schedule is cake. Denver could find themselves with the 2 seed if they keep progressing. I think they take care of business here against Cam pretty comfortably, and keep rolling to 6-3. Denver 31, Carolina 21.

OAK vs BAL (-7.5) - Have people ever been less confident about a 6-2 team than they are about these Ravens? If they were at full strength, they would arguably be the best team in the AFC, but they have been decimated. No matter how shaky they are, one fact holds true: this team is money at home. However, I think this spread is too high. Carson Palmer is going to throw it 50+ times on Sunday, and they are bound to score some points to ensure that this game is not a blowout. Watch out for the Raiders. Tight win for the Ravens. Oakland 23, Baltimore 27.

NYJ vs SEA (-6.5) - I feel like a horrible New Yorker, but I feel completely confident that the Seahawks are going to win this game by at least two touchdowns, kind of like the Dallas win from Week 2. The Jets are in shambles on offense, and the Seattle D is monstrous at home. Marshawn Lynch will have 125 yards on the ground and at least 1 score. I’m taking the Over on 7.5 sacks+turnovers for SEA. New York 10, Seattle 30.

DAL vs PHI (-1.5) - So this is what we’ve come to. The two most overrated teams in the league at 3-5 facing off to see who keeps their season relevant for one more week. Both these teams are pathetic, and I am incredibly tempted to predict a tie. You know what? I’m going to. Because my first instinct was to pick the Cowboys with the points, so a tie would mean a win for Dallas with the spread anyway. So here we go: Dallas and Philly are tied going into overtime, where there will be at least 2 turnovers and no scores. Andy Reid will ice Dan Bailey on a game-winning attempt, followed by Jason Garrett icing Bailey as well, followed by a blocked kick that is returned to the 1 yard line before the player fumbles out of the back of the end zone for a touchback. I just want these teams to leave so ESPN will talk about someone else. Dallas 24, Philadelphia 24.

STL vs SF (-11.5) - If this game was in St. Louis there’s no way I would take San Fran with the points, but I have to for this one. We’ve already seen in baseball that St. Louis can’t beat San Francisco. The Rams can’t score, and the 49ers will run all day. 49ers, big time. St. Louis 13, San Francisco 34.

HOU vs CHI (-1.5) - What a game this is going to be. These teams are almost identical: two quarterbacks with above average talent who has yet to win the big game; two stud running backs in Foster and Forte; two superstar receivers, Johnson and Marshall; and two ferocious defenses that make plays. Lots of big hits, lots of sacks, some points here and there...I hope this game lives up to the potential. Possible Super Bowl preview. I’m really pumped. So what’s the determining factor? Bears at home. Whoever wins will be by a field goal. Give me Robbie Gould or give me death! 45-yarder as time expires. Houston 17, Chicago 20.

KC vs PIT (-12.5) - Another huge spread...and I’m taking it. Again. What is wrong with me this week? Look...the Chiefs suck. Like historically. They have not led. Ever. Besides the game-winning field goal in overtime. So that’s still 0 seconds. The Steelers are clicking right now. This game will be horrible. Kansas City 9, Pittsburgh 26.