NFL Week 12 Preview

Week 12 Preview

Before I begin my picks for Week 12, I would first like to wish all my readers a Happy Thanksgiving. It’s the day of Three F’s: Family, Food, and Football. This is the point of the season when either the real contenders step up and separate themselves from the pack, or teams stumble and allow hot organizations to get in the playoff mix. They say it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. Well, this is the beginning of the stretch run to end the season. And I think there are going to be a lot of crazy results this week. I’m not messing around with these predictions this weekend. So let’s get to it, starting with a Turkey Day Triple Header.

HOU vs DET (+3.5) - The obvious downside of picking the Texans is pointing out the fact that they are playing a 12:30 Thursday game on the road after enduring a should-never-have-been-that-close OT win at home just four days ago. But I think they got their bad performance out of the way. They will come to play on a national stage. Their defense will be back in form. Even coming off a 527-yard day, I would still take the Under on 300 for Schaub in this one; I think they are going to pound Foster to regain their balance. Player of the Game: JJ Watt. Houston 27, Detroit 13.

WAS vs DAL (-3.5) - A lot of implications in this one. We know RGIII is not afraid of a huge stage. They can keep their season alive with a big win in Big D. The Cowboys meanwhile, are right back in the playoff hunt with a couple of wins in a row and an easy schedule ahead. This game pretty much boils down to one question: do you think the Cowboys are going to break everyone’s hearts now, or later? I’m going with now. Griffin is going to shut down this Dallas momentum. I’m a believer. Redskins go on the road and earn a tough win. 3 total TDs for RGIII. Washington 24, Dallas 21.

NE vs NYJ (+6.5) - Really wish this spread was 7.5 but it is what it is. I was all ready to put this one in blowout territory until Gronk went down last week on point number 59. Reports are Aaron Hernandez is returning but how much production can you expect from him? With no big threat in the middle, the Pats are going to have to rely on their receivers getting open, and the Jets have done a good job in the past of jamming receivers and throwing off Brady’s timing. I think they try and run more, with Woodhead getting at least 1 TD against the team that cut him. The Jets played this game tough in Foxborough and this is a pride game. Their season is over, but they have this one chance on national television to prove that they are not clowns, and take out their hated rival at home to give New Yorkers something to be very thankful for. I’m going with an outright win for the home team because I’m a Jets fan, but even if I wasn’t I would still grab those points. Sanchez puts together a gem, they pick off Brady twice, and have a D/ST touchdown in this one. Huge win. New England 24, New York 27.

MIN vs CHI (-5.5) - It is yet to be known whether Jay Cutler will play or not, but I would take the Vikings and the points no matter what. Divisional games are always close, and the Bears have lost two in a row, albeit to two powerhouses. They can be run on, and AP is coming to town. If Cutler is out, I think this one could end up being another upset, but if he plays then it’s a close win. So I’ll throw out two scores with for possibility. JC OUT: Minnesota 23, Chicago 16. JC IN: Minnesota 17, Chicago 20.

OAK vs CIN (-7.5) - I know these teams are heading in different directions, but is Andy Dalton really being given over a TD? I’m tempted to go upset on this one but I don’t trust the Raiders on the road enough for that. But I think it will be at least a one possession game. The Raiders should double AJ Green on every play. If not triple. Make someone else beat you. My prediction: Cincy will have a 3rd and 2 needing a first down to ice the game and the Raiders will jump offsides for the first. Tight game though. You know Carson Palmer wants this one badly. Oakland 23, Cincinnati 24.

PIT vs CLE (+3.5) - Another “don’t have enough balls to call it an upset” game. The Browns are sneaky good, they just have not been able to put together a complete game. They will be at home against a banged up Steelers team with Charlie Batch starting at quarterback, as a classic trap game in between the two with Baltimore. The line is 3.5, and I’m taking the Steelers by 2 with my exact score. But I like Cleveland and the points to prevail, even if it isn’t quite an upset. I’ve correctly predicted all 10 of the Browns’ games (straight up), and I don’t plan on losing now. But watch out for this one. Like I said, it’s going to be a chaotic week. Pittsburgh 21, Cleveland 19.

BUF vs IND (-3.5) - If this was in Buffalo then I would take the Bills to win. But it’s not. It’s in Indy. Where ChuckStrong will be in full force. I don’t think this is a blowout, but I think it’s comfortable enough for Indy. Andrew Luck showed last week that he isn’t quite ready to take on the big boys, but the potential is there. This kid is going to be a superstar sooner rather than later. I think he’ll respond here with an impressive game. I’m going specifics on his line, because why not? 27-42, 307 yards, 3 total TD, 1 INT. Let’s go. Buffalo 20, Indianapolis 31.

DEN vs KC (+10.5) - The only thing that scares me about this one is that the Broncos will not take the Chiefs seriously, let them hang around, and then win late when KC inevitably turns it over on the potential winning drive. But that’s a small worry. Give me 18. That’s the number of Peyton Manning, and what the winning margin of this game will be. Cover city on a big spread...what could possibly go wrong? Bold Prediction: Eric Decker gets 3 TD receiving. Denver 31, Kansas City 13.

SEA vs MIA (+2.5) - The Dolphins are better than I thought they would be...but I like the Seahawks more than the Bucs for that final wild card spot in the NFC so I’m riding with them. Third rounder beats first rounder. Seattle 20, Miami 14.

ATL vs TB (+0.5) - The Atlanta Falcons have to be the most unappreciated 9-1 team ever. And I’m part of that skepticism. They have no recent history to fall back on. They have zero impressive wins (I’m not counting the win over Peyton in Week 2; first road game back, 3 INTs in first quarter, almost blew a 20 point cushion), and in their one “win this to prove you are for real” game in New Orleans, Matt Ryan again came up short and couldn’t win the game from inside the 5. They can’t get it done. They have the best record in football but haven’t proven anything. They should have lost to Carolina, Oakland, and Arizona. In the NFC, which of the top teams do you think they can they beat in a playoff game, even at home? Not the 49ers. Probably not the Giants, Bears, and Packers, either. They cannot be taken seriously. Now they have another tough test going into red hot Tampa Bay. And you know what? I think Matt Ryan comes up short again. These Bucs are clicking. I had the Panthers winning this division, but I picked the wrong NFC South team to break out, I guess. Right now, Tampa is playing better football than the Falcons. They prove it on Sunday. Doug Martin is for real. Josh Freeman has finally progressed whereas Mark Sanchez has not (they were taken in the same draft, Sanchez at 5, Freeman at 17). They have a big play threat in V-Jax. It’s a one-possession game that the Bucs find a way to win. Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 31.

TEN vs JAC (+2.5) - The Jags had their chance last week to prove themselves. Chad Henne came off the bench and had 400 yards and 4 TDs. And they still lost. Go away, Jacksonville. Chris Johnson alert: possible 150 and 2 TD game coming up off a bye against a bad team. Tennessee 27, Jacksonville 10.

BAL vs SD (+0.5) - I picked this Chargers win before the season and I’m not backing down. I talked about a potential trap game for the Steelers; this is it for the Ravens as well. As disappointing as San Diego has been the last few years, they just seem to play well against Baltimore. The Ravens have to travel out west in between Steeler games against a team who is desperate for a win and have to make one final stand to show that they aren’t the Eagles of the AFC. All the ingredients are there. The Ravens were my Super Bowl pick, but I’ve had this one booked for months. Don’t let me down, San Diego. Baltimore 20, San Diego 26.

SF vs NO (+1.5) - Colin Kaepernick was fantastic against the Bears on Monday Night and will reportedly take over the starting gig from Alex Smith. I don’t like this decision. Not yet. Smith deserves to start for the rest of the year. After all, he played well enough to get this team to the Super Bowl last year. And while Kaep played great in his first ever start...welcome to the Superdome. The Saints have an awful defense, but this game is going to be different. I think Harbaugh will already have bad karma for the QB change. The Saints want revenge for their heartbreaking playoff loss in San Francisco last year. First road start for Kaepernick. Saints hot and firing on all cylinders, with a possible return for Sproles. I don’t think the 49ers make it out of New Orleans alive. Saints, convincingly. 2 dunks for Jimmy Graham. San Francisco 17, New Orleans 31.

STL vs ARI (-2.5) - Who cares? Bad against bad. Cardinals win by three because of their defense at home. 2 offensive touchdowns combined in this one. This is a draft order game. St. Louis 10, Arizona 13,

GB vs NYG (-2.5) - The Giants have mastered the art of the 16 game season. They were off to a smoking start but have looked dreadful the last few weeks. Big Blue had their bye last week to regroup and get ready for the sprint at the end to put the division away. The Pack are hot and are hungry to avenge their playoff loss from last year. But this game in MetLife Stadium. The Giants are more complete. They have been struggling, but this is what they want. Us against the world, taking on a powerhouse, national television...it’s perfect. The G-Men are going to completely steal all of Green Bay’s momentum. Statement game. Green Bay 24, New York 37.

CAR vs PHI (-2.5) - Who would have thought that whoever loses this game is going to have to worst record in the NFC? This was supposed to be a Monday Night showdown between the superstar Cam and the dynamic Michael Vick. The Eagles will be starting rookies at QB and RB. The Panthers are better than 2-8. They blew the game last week to Tampa. They blew a game early in Chicago. They choked away the Atlanta game. They easily could have beat Seattle and Dallas at home instead of suffering tight losses. This team could very well be .500 if they could close games. And that sound you hear is Andy Reid’s job on life support. Or is that him calling a timeout before the game even starts? I’ve got the Panthers. Carolina 24, Philadelphia 17.

Well, there you have it. What a slate of games to begin the finish. I said I had some wild predictions; I have 6 underdogs winning straight up and 3 more beating the spread. Good luck this week everyone, and Happy Turkey Day.