NFL Week 16 Preview

Week 16 Preview

With two weeks left in the regular season, the final spots for the postseason are still up for grabs, and the true winners will step up and take what is rightfully theirs. While the AFC is pretty much wrapped up except for seeding purposes, the NFC still can be jumbled up in many ways. There are 3 teams tied in the NFC East with 8-6 records, while the Bears and Vikings also share this record fighting for a Wild Card spot. All of these teams are one game behind Seattle, but if the Seahawks lose to the 49ers on Sunday, anything could happen. There are a couple of records in danger of falling this year as well. Adrian Peterson will most likely pass 2,000 yards and quite possibly even Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record by the end of the year. He is coming off a torn ACL that took place in Week 16 of last year, so he absolutely in my opinion should be Comeback Player of the Year. If the Vikings somehow make the playoffs, I think he should win MVP over Peyton Manning as well. But that is a tough task given that they play the Texans and Packers to end the season. The Redskins and Cowboys are both surging to the finish line, and if either of these teams makes it into the postseason, no one will want to face them. So, without further ado, here are my picks for Week 16, and who I think will put themselves in position to make the playoffs.

ATL vs DET (+3.5) - This one is pretty simple in my opinion. The Falcons, with a win, will clinch home field throughout the playoffs. The Lions are going backwards at 4-10 and a horrible loss to the Cardinals last week. So I think it’s a comfortable win for the Dirty Birds, but they still will lose in the second round of the playoffs, after their bye. Atlanta 31, Detroit 17.

NO vs DAL (-3.5) - The Saints have had a miserable season because of the aggressiveness of the Commissioner regarding the bounty punishments. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have been a surprising team and control their own destiny in the division. However, they have not had a convincing home win in a long time, and this one will be close too. But you know what? Tony Romo has been fabulous and the Saints defense has gotten torched more times than not this year. The Cowboys secondary will be good enough to contain the explosive wide outs for the Saints. And Big D will be one win away from the NFC East crown. First to 30. New Orleans 24, Dallas 31.

TEN vs GB (-12.5) - The Packers have had so many huge spreads at home this year and have not been good at closing teams out and winning big. While they should and will most likely win this game, I have to go with the Titans to keep this game close enough. Jake Locker has a lot of athletic ability and I really like his potential, and Chris Johnson is always a immediate big play threat. I’m taking the Pack by ten, give me the points in this one. Tennessee 17, Green Bay 27.

IND vs KC (+6.5) - I feel horrible for the people who had to watch the Chiefs-Raiders game last week. Miserable. Can Andrew Luck beat the terrible Chiefs by a touchdown to control the 5 seed? Yes. Indy will be playing emotional once again, with the news of Pagano’s recovery. This team is the best story in the NFL this year. Quick thought, does anyone realize that the Colts can feasibly make the AFC Championship Game? They could beat Baltimore or Cincy in round one, and face the Texans in round two, in which division games are always close. Watch out for that. Indianapolis 24, Kansas City 10.

BUF vs MIA (-4.5) - A moment of silence for what the Bills’ season could have been. It took the Dolphins one year to become the new team with potential in the AFC East. Buffalo 20, Miami 27.

SD vs NYJ (-2.5) - The Jets have finally benched their turnover machine of a quarterback in favor of someone with zero 

career NFL starts. The running game is almost average, but not quite. Their best receiver shares a name with one of the Three Stooges. The defense provides no pass rush, and is missing their best player. And this team is favored. What a mess that is out west under Norv. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2012 San Diego Chargers! Win number one for McElroy. San Diego 13, New York 20.

WAS vs PHI (+4.5) - It’s been a while, but...UPSET SPECIAL BABY!!!!! Word is that RGIII should be able to play in this game, but that’s ok. Doesn’t matter. LeSean McCoy is coming back this week, and even though the Redskins run defense is pretty solid, if Andy Reid finally grows a brain and feeds the two-headed monster potential of McCoy and Bryce Brown, and lets Nick Foles dink and dunk on this flawed Washington pass defense, the offense will be effective enough to win. This game relies on the Eagles’ defensive pursuit and ability to make tackles. Uh oh. I suddenly feel much less confident about this pick. But they are at home, and this is a pride game for Philly in front of their fans, and I think they 

play their best game of the year. Washington 20, Philadelphia 23.

CIN vs PIT (-4.5) - I’ve changed my pick for this game multiple times, with the spread and straight up as well. I have consistently ragged on the Bengals this year for not winning the games when it matters, and this one absolutely matters. If Cincy wants to be considered among the big boys of the AFC North, then they have to beat the Ravens and Steelers, both of whom are declining. I originally had the Steelers because of my lack of faith in the Bengals, but you know what? Pittsburgh has looked awful recently, and the Cincinnati D is ferocious. I picked the Steelers to miss the playoffs, and if the Bengals win this game, not only do they clinch a playoff spot, but they have a chance to take the division away from Baltimore in Week 17. I finally have faith in them. And you know what? They are probably going to let me down. But I’m riding with them. Not only to cover, but to win outright. The Bengals will clinch their spot in the playoffs in the Steel City on Sunday. Time to step up. Cincinnati 20, Pittsburgh 14.

STL vs TB (-3.5) - The Rams have shown signs of life under Jeff Fisher already, and I have a lot of hope for them to compete sooner rather than later. The Bucs have been spiraling down, but have shown good things this year, and I think Doug Martin goes off on this defense that got lit up by AD last week. Two touchdowns for Freeman as well. Solid win for the Buccaneers to get momentum heading into next year. Easy cover on this one. I’m trying not to laugh imaging Sam Bradford trying to lead his team from three touchdowns back. St. Louis 13, Tampa Bay 31.

OAK vs CAR (-8.5) - I mean, I know the Panthers have been good lately and Cam has rebounded really great, but laying eight and a half? Really? Two-possession game? I’m not buying it. Even to the horrid Raiders. Lots of garbage time potential in this one. One possession win for the Panthers. Oakland 16, Carolina 22.

NE vs JAC (-14.5) - Um...yeah...the Jags might be a little overmatched against the Patriots. In December. Angry coming off a loss. I don’t see how this isn’t a blowout. Unless Chad Henne goes wild throwing to Cecil Shorts and and Justin Blackmon, and the Patriots are caught napping. I’m going with the former. I’m so happy that the Pats lost last week, because it’s going to be really fun seeing them go to Denver and Peyton Manning getting his revenge. New England 41, Jacksonville 17.

MIN vs HOU (-7.5) - I was right about the Texans winning big in their statement game last week against the Colts. Here, they have a chance to lock up number one seed which is vital. The Vikings have been riding Adrian Peterson all season long, but the Texans have a dominant run defense. If AD can’t get his, then do you trust Christian Ponder trying to come back with no receivers, getting harassed by JJ Watt and friends? I don’t see it. Another decent, but not tremendous win for the Texans in this one. But I think they definitely cover. Minnesota 13, Houston 27.

CLE vs DEN (-13.5) - I originally thought that this line could not be high enough. The Browns just got embarrassed last week. Their 1st round QB and RB just lost at home, with a better defense, to a 4th round backup QB and a 6th round RB. The Redskins have drafted two quarterbacks better than Cleveland in this past draft. Meanwhile, the Broncos are surging, and will most likely take an 11 game win streak into the playoffs with a first round bye. As of right now, I think they are my Super Bowl favorite. But this game just smells funny...I think it’ll be one of those games that the score doesn’t indicate how one-sided the game actually was. And so I think the Browns keep it within two touchdowns. If the Broncos get a big lead, they just run the ball and show no effort to really score. So I’m taking the Browns and the points, but in terms of gameplay it will be very one-sided. Like 28-10 in the 4th and the Browns just have some garbage time score. Cleveland 16, Denver 28.

CHI vs ARI (+5.5) - Ok Chicago...you can’t be that bad right? I picked this team to go to the NFC Championship Game, and it looked like they would after that 7-1 start. But this team has imploded, and they need to win out to make the playoffs. The Cardinals had a misleading beatdown of the Lions last week; they got a couple of defensive scores to put the game out of reach, but it was a blowout because of the Lions’ ineptitude. I think the Bears take care of business to stay alive, but it’ll only be about a 7-10 point winning margin. Chicago 20, Arizona 13.

NYG vs BAL (+2.5) - The Ravens have to be the winner of the “wrong place, wrong time” competition this week. The Ravens are backing into the playoffs with no momentum whatsoever, and could even still lose the division. After a 9-2 start. Wow. My Super Bowl pick going down in flames. Meanwhile, the G-men officially have their backs against the wall. And the entire league has seen this story before. They don’t lose these games. And they won’t this time either. Big Blue takes care of business against the plummeting Ravens to stay in the playoff hunt. Eli time. New York 31, Baltimore 20.

SF vs SEA (+1.5) - There are two ways to look at the 49ers’ win over the Patriots last week. They dominated to get off to a 31-3 lead, and then collapsed to let the Pats tie it up before San Francisco ultimately won. There is only one way to look at Seattle’s win last week: domination. No team is playing better than the Seahawks right now, and they are unbeatable at home. And still, I am not a Kaepernick believer. I’ll trust him when I see him win a playoff game. I’m sipping the Russell Wilson kool-aid. This team is legit, and will only get better in years to come. The Seahawks have a statement game on Sunday Night, primetime, while the 49ers will suffer an emotional letdown after a big win last week. San Francisco 13, Seattle 24. The Pacific Northwest is back.