NFL Week 14 Preview

Week 14 Preview

We have officially begun the fourth quarter of the NFL season. Each team has four games left and while less than half of the division races are still competitive, many playoff spots are still up for grabs, as is chances for the first round bye. It’s time for the real contenders to get hot (Giants), and the pretenders to crash (Cowboys). We’ll see if some of these sneaky hot teams can maintain their momentum into the playoffs (Bengals, Redskins), and which powerhouse might slip up before the postseason (Ravens, 49ers, possibly). We’ll also witness the exciting race for the number one overall pick! By the way, it’s still weird to think that the Eagles are only one game ahead of the Chiefs and Jaguars. No matter where they pick, there are going to be some scary defensive players available that they much need. Last week brought the highest of highs for Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Charlie Batch. Unfortunately, it also brought the lowest of the lows with that Cardinals-Jets game last week. Ugh. It would have been hilarious if I didn’t root for the Jets. That was embarrassing. Jacoby on Grantland sums up that game pretty well if you haven’t seen it. While there are some nice games on the slate for this week, there is one standout, and it is the Monday Night showdown between the Texans and the Patriots up in New England. Either Houston will officially establish themselves as the team to beat in the AFC, or the Patriots will prove that the conference still runs through them. But more on that later. Let’s get to the games.

DEN vs OAK (+10.5) - Normally this spread would turn me off in a heartbeat. A double digit line with a home underdog in a division game? Thursday Night games suck and need to be taken out of the schedule; the level of play declines dramatically. I originally took the Raiders and the points in this one. But you know what? The Broncos are on a roll. And more importantly, the Raiders are dreadful. That Carson Palmer trade looks more embarrassing by the week. I’m switching my pick to Mile High. I think a 17 point win is substantial. Denver 31, Oakland 14.

STL vs BUF (-3.5) - The Rams are surprisingly good this year but most of their success has come at home, not in Buffalo in the winter. The Bills looked pretty solid last week with their two-headed monster of Spiller and Jackson. They have ultimately had a disappointing season but are technically not out of it yet. And if you want to be taken seriously, Buffalo, you have to beat inferior teams at home. It’s time to step up and take care of business. St. Louis 13, Buffalo 24.

DAL vs CIN (-3.5) - This is basically a must-win for both teams here. I think the loser misses the playoffs no matter what. Here’s the problem with picking this game: I’m not a believer in either team. It’s going to be a close game, but I don’t think that the Cowboys can win a tough road game in December. I do think, however, that they can hang in there until the end, because the Bengals won’t be able to pull away with this one. That extra half point makes the difference in this one. Cincy wins by a field goal. So I’m taking Big D and the points. I just think that someway, somehow, that Cowboys will lose this game at the end. Whether it’s a penalty or a blown coverage to put the Bengals into field goal range, or a third down holding penalty to take themselves out of game-tying field goal range...they will find a way to lose. But I don’t think Cincinnati wins by more than four. The Cowboys will be put to rest. Dallas 24, Cincinnati 27.

KC vs CLE (-5.5) - Asking the Browns to cover by almost a full touchdown is a lot to ask. I’m amazed that the Chiefs were able to unite the way they did following the Belcher tragedy and win that game last week. Great heart and great effort. The question is, can they do it again? I say no. They will be mentally exhausted and come out flat, but keep it close enough to make sure they beat the spread. Trent Richardson is the difference in this one. Browns, close. Kansas City 13, Cleveland 17.

TEN vs IND (-5.5) - A lot of these medium spreads this week. Hard to make a decision on. And I literally just changed my mind as I am typing this. I originally was going to take the Titans and the points, but after seeing how awful they looked on offense last week albeit against the Texans, and how great Indy has been at home, I think that they win by a touchdown. The only chance Tennessee has is if Chris Johnson runs wild, which is a possibility. But the Colts are just a team of destiny this year with Andrew Luck leading the way and a sick coach to fight for. They go to 9-4. And as far as I’m concerned, Luck should be the Rookie of the Year. Tennessee 20, Indianapolis 27.

CHI vs MIN (+2.5) - I’ve had a strange feeling about this game all week. Not about the winner---I’m taking the Bears even without Urlacher. I just think that without him, the defense will not be as sharp, and I don’t think the running game will be that successful either. This game will come down to the arm of Jay Cutler. I think he’ll need to go for 300 yards and/or 3 TDs in this one. But I think he’ll come through and keep pace with Green Bay. Bears, close cover. Chicago 26, Minnesota 20.

SD vs PIT (-6.5) - Two bits of big news regarding these teams. First, Norv Turner and AJ Smith will reportedly be fired at the end of the season! Have hope for the future, San Diego! Also, Big Ben will be starting again for Pittsburgh. So have hope for the future, but not this game San Diego! Steelers had a big win last week in Baltimore to stay in the playoff hunt and they host a Chargers team that is just awful. Watch out for a late season run from the Steelers. San Diego 17, Pittsburgh 31.

PHI vs TB (-7.5) - How about the Eagles in the running for worst record in the NFL, and the Bucs with a shot at the playoffs? Who saw that coming? Here’s the two reasons I can’t take the Bucs to win big: Nick Foles now has a few starts under his belt, and Bryce Brown has run wild the last two weeks. And the Tampa defense is vulnerable. Imagine if Andy Reid had run the ball with Shady and Brown from the beginning of the season, with a healthy Vick? They would probably lead the league in rushing. Anyway, the Buccaneers are the better team, and they win by one touchdown. Which is enough for the Eagles to beat the spread. Philadelphia 21, Tampa Bay 28.

BAL vs WAS (-0.5) - This is a pick’em game, and it is scary. Another late switch, from the Redskins to the Ravens. Washington, with RGIII, has gotten really good, really fast. The Ravens, meanwhile, have looked more vulnerable and are still without Ray Lewis, scheduled to return next week. If he and Suggs are both healthy for the playoffs, watch out. But Baltimore had their routine blah game last week against the Steelers, and elite teams rarely lose twice in a row. I expect a small dropoff for RGIII against a great defense. Baltimore wins. Side note: I fear that Joe Flacco is becoming Philip Rivers, if they don’t win the Super Bowl this year. But that’s a story for another day. For now, I think he steps up and they gut out a tough one on the road to win the all-Maryland bowl. Baltimore 27, Washington 24.

ATL vs CAR (+3.5) - There’s been a lot of trash talk between these two division rivals and understandably so. The Panthers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory early this season in Atlanta, so an argument can be made that now that they are at home, Cam might be able to pull off the upset this time around. However, I’m not buying it. The Panthers had their shot and blew it, and I think the Falcons will come out angry and fly high. Atlanta 34, Carolina 20.

NYJ vs JAC (+2.5) - This is it for Sanchez. He already got benched last week, and if he falls behind against the lowly Jaguars then McElroy will come in and I think he will finish the season as well. Last chance. Meanwhile, that game last week was possibly the worst game I have ever watched. It didn’t even feel like the Jets won. Unfortunately, we might see round two this week against another abysmal offensive team in the Jags. Not excited to watch this one. I’m picking the Jets just to maintain my New York pride. But I do not think that the Jets should be favored. New York 20, Jacksonville 10.

MIA vs SF (-10.5) - The jury is still out on the Kaepernick experiment. I would have liked to see Alex Smith start, but now that Harbaugh went in a new direction, he’s gotta ride Kaep till the end. I don’t think this team can win a championship with him this year. He played very well against the Bears and Saints but really struggled against the Rams. Now the Dolphins are coming to town, which is a very winnable game, although Miami has an underrated defense which just played very well against the Pats. I think the 49ers win an ugly game, but not by double digits. I didn’t like Tannehill coming into this year but he’s been pretty good. Miami 22, San Francisco 27.

NO vs NYG (-5.5) - Probably the most exciting matchup between teams whose records add up to .500 ever. The Saints need a win, or will be most likely mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The Giants, meanwhile, looked sluggish on Monday Night against the Redskins, which is just what they planned. Now they have no breathing room. I almost want them to lose this game to fall to 7-6, so that next week when they go down to Atlanta next week they will be doubted, and unleash another dominating performance against a top team. But the Saints defense is bad enough to ensure that the Giants will be able to outscore New Orleans at home. But I’m taking the Saints and the points, because it’s hard to pick against Drew Brees in a must-win bounceback nationally televised game against a team who struggles at home and has an iffy secondary. Close win for Big Blue. First to 35. New Orleans 34, New York 37.

ARI vs SEA (-10.5) - I hope that the Cardinals are taking the challenge of finishing 0-12 seriously, because it would bring me much joy and entertainment. Apparently John Skelton is going to start. Who cares? They can’t score. Especially not in Seattle. The only catch is I don’t think the Seahawks will win by 11. Very low scoring game here. 7 sacks for Seattle. Arizona 9, Seattle 17.

DET vs GB (-6.5) - Blowout. Detroit 17, Green Bay 38.

HOU vs NE (-4.5) - Really? The Patriots are favored by that many points? This is going to be a battle between the top two teams in the AFC. The Patriots host the Texans and 49ers the next two weeks, and if they lose one of them it will be this one. Houston can control the clock and play defense as well. The Patriots are riddled with injuries at receiver, meaning that Welker and Hernandez will be the main targets for Brady. The Texans are undefeated on the road, and the Patriots are like undefeated in the second half of seasons since forever. My thoughts: Houston wins. New England falls. Texans all but clinch home-field. Can’t wait for this one. Houston 27, New England 20.