2013 NFL Week 13 Preview

Week 13 Preview

We’re finally here! It’s the Thanksgiving week preview, and the beginning of the best time of year. The holiday season is starting, and speaking of, I’d like to first wish everybody out there a Happy Thanksgiving and Happy Hanukkah! I hope all of your turkeys and latkes are delicious and that you are able to spend quality time with your families. As for football, Thanksgiving is always a great day for game action, with three interesting matchups gracing our televisions. We are finally out of byes, which means that we are in store for a 16-game week since Week 3. So now I’m going to pick every game as usual, with some extra predictions thrown in there. The holidays are here, time to have some fun.

GB (+7) vs DET - What the hell are the Lions doing, again??? I thought they were due for a big game last week hosting Tampa Bay, but instead they lost outright? They do know that they have a golden opportunity here to take control of their division with Aaron Rodgers out, right? Since the former MVP went down, the Packers have not won a single game (0-3-1), but the Lions keep losing as well, proving once again that they do not have what it takes to be taken seriously. They continue to shoot themselves in the foot, even though they have a world of talent offensively. Matt Flynn is not a good quarterback, but he knows the Green Bay system, and so he is a major improvement over Scott Tolzien. I have to pick the Lions to win this game, because the Packers have shown that they cannot win a game without Rodgers, but this has the makings of a one-possession game. If they lose this game, they are done. Clay Matthews has a sack-fumble, and Megatron will go for 147 yards. Green Bay 23, Detroit 27

OAK (+9) vs DAL - Never ever ever take the Cowboys as huge favorites at home. They rarely cover these type of games, even though they are much more talented than the Raiders. Oakland gets one defensive or special teams touchdown at the beginning of one of the halves, but too much Dez and Witten for the ‘Boys, who will each have 100 yards and a touchdown. Oakland 24, Dallas 31

PIT vs BAL (-2.5) - A perfect way to end Thanksgiving. There’s nothing like sitting on the couch at the end of the night while you’re filled with turkey and stuffing, to watch a classic, hard-hitting rivalry between the Steelers and Ravens--that’s what America is all about. Both these teams, miraculously, are still fighting for a playoff spot, and are TIED FOR THE SIX SEED AT 5-6!!! More on this crazy AFC last wild card spot throughout this piece. Nine of the last 12 matchups between these two teams have been decided by exactly three points, and it’s rare that one team sweeps the other in a season. The Steelers took the first game by three, and now I think the Ravens return the favor. Game-winning touchdown from Flacco to Jacoby Jones late in the fourth. Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 20

TEN vs IND (-4.5) - This line is in no-man’s land. These two teams played a few weeks ago and the Colts won by three, although they were up by ten before Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a late TD for a backdoor cover. Since then, both these teams have been basically playing like crap, making it difficult to go either way. Do you know that the Colts have been down double digits in each of the last four weeks? But they are overall a solid home team including wins over Denver and Seattle, so I feel more comfortable taking them with the points. By the way, how are the Titans in control of the six seed??? What is going on? They are 5-6 and have lost five of their last seven, including one to Jacksonville, at home! There’s one thing keeping me rooting for this sorry team: the chance to get another matchup between the Patriots having to face Bernard Karmell Pollard in a playoff game. For those of you who don’t know what I mean, look up any Bill Simmons column and google “Bernard Pollard + Patriots”. He’s like my favorite player ever. He has single-handedly, over the course of four different seasons and three different teams, injured Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Stevan Ridley. And I’d rather see the Patriots have to face Pollard than to have my Jets get that last spot. Maybe. Tennessee 21, Indianapolis 27

JAC (+7) vs CLE - This is ridiculous. I mean, the Jags have the same amount of wins as the Texans, Falcons, and Vikings, but none of them would be seven point underdogs to the Browns. I know I never want to pick Jacksonville again, but they have won a couple of games recently, and the Browns aren’t able to outscore anybody. I’m officially out on the Browns; I really thought they could have made the playoffs if they had competent quarterback play, but they still couldn’t get that. They will have two first round picks in the coming draft, and they need to find their franchise guy. If they do, and get an average running back, they can still be a force next year--it’s just that dreadful quarterback position. Jacksonville 13, Cleveland 19

TB (+8) vs CAR - Look out--these might be the two hottest teams in football! I love the Panthers this year; before the season started, I picked Carolina to make the playoffs and selected Cam to be my QB for my buy-in fantasy draft. Now they have won seven in a row, but they haven’t been blowing teams out recently. The Bucs are looking much better, having won three straight games; remember as well, in the last game they lost they were up 21-0 on Seattle. They should have won that Week 1 game against the Jets. Those results don’t matter now, but the point is that they are closer to a five win team than a three win team who started out 0-8. Eight points is too many in this one, although I think the Panthers will take care of business and keep the pressure on the Saints atop the NFC South. I’m hoping that Cam Newton can have a big game, and I think he will. The Bucs are good against the run, the Panthers are at home, and therefore Cam will have 262 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, and two total touchdowns with no turnovers (if he has one turnover: three total TDs). Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 27

CHI vs MIN (+1) - The Bears have been one of the most inconsistent teams in a league of inconsistency. Their run defense is atrocious, which is strange to say about a Chicago team, and now they have to travel to a division rival to take on Adrian Peterson. They are another team who has not taken advantage of Aaron Rodgers’ absence from Green Bay, but one bright spot for them: Josh McCown has been pretty good! The Vikings are a bad team, but they are capable of beating almost anybody when Christian Ponder is on his game. This is a rare occurrence, but I actually think he plays well on Sunday. Vikings win outright, and we can bury the Bears’ season. Chicago 20, Minnesota 24

ARI (+3) vs PHI - Two very overlooked, hot teams in this one. The Cardinals, somehow, are 7-4 and fighting for a wild card spot with San Francisco, while the Eagles have surged with Nick Foles and are sitting atop the NFC East. Each of these teams a stricken with variables, but there is one major certainty among them: Arizona’s defense is really good. I think they are good enough to take on Foles and McCoy and win, while Andre Ellington, Larry Fitzgerald, and Michael Floyd will carry the Card’s offense. The shocking Cardinals will go to 8-4, with a real shot to beat out the Niners. Arizona 24, Philadelphia 20

MIA vs NYJ (-2) - Ok...Geno Smith isn’t THAT bad, is he? A bounce back game at home is in order for a fraudulent Dolphins team. The winner of this game will be 6-6 and in prime position to make a run at a wild card berth. However, I don’t think either of these teams should be serious contenders; in fact, out of all the remaining AFC East, teams, I think Buffalo has the best shot to make the postseason. But more on them later. Miami 16, New York 20

NE (-9) vs HOU - So the nine-game-losing-streak Houston Texans were favored by ten over the Jaguars, lost outright, and are only nine-point underdogs to the Patriots? What? I mean, I hate the Patriots with all my heart, but I’m not that stupid. New England 41, Houston 17

ATL vs BUF (-3.5) - The Falcons are terrible. Period. The Bills, meanwhile, aren’t that much better, but play really well at home. I know, I know, this game is in Toronto, but do you really think the Falcons could win on the road ANYWHERE? The Bills sit at 4-7 which many close wins and losses, but are somehow only one game out of the wild card. Sure, they have a bunch of teams ahead of them in the standings, but look at this final schedule: ATL, at TB (winnable), at JAC, MIA, at NE (who might have nothing to play for). Are you telling me that it’s not possible for Buffalo to go at least 4-1 down the stretch and sneak into the playoffs? They probably have to go 5-0, but even that isn’t impossible; I mean, Washington was 3-6 last season with a rookie QB before rallying to get to the playoffs. Don’t sleep on the Bills this year or next year--they’re coming along. They will score early and often, with two touchdowns from Fred Jackson. Atlanta 17, Buffalo 31

STL (+9) vs SF - Where have these Rams been all year? They were 3-6 but have now scored 38 on the Colts and put up 42 on the Bears. Tavon Austin is looking like they dynamo we thought he could be, and rookie Zac Stacy is becoming this year’s Alfred Morris. The Niners are good, but Colin Kaepernick has had a very lackluster season, and nine points is a lot to ask against a Rams team that gets after the QB and is on a roll. I still think the 49ers will win behind the power of Frank Gore--remember, they are still desperate for wins to keep pace with the Panthers and Cardinals. St Louis 20, San Francisco 23

DEN (-5.5) vs KC - This is the final stand for the Chiefs. If they lose this one, it will be three in a row against actual good teams, and they will be all but locked into the five seed. Their main asset has been their defense, which got torched by Philip Rivers last week at home. They have relied heavily on their pass rush, but now Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are banged up, and they couldn’t even touch Peyton Manning a couple of weeks ago. They are unraveling by the minute. Meanwhile, more importantly, what happened to the Broncos last week? Are you kidding me? If you are up 24-0 at halftime on the Patriots, you HAVE TO CLOSE OUT THAT GAME. Peyton Manning should know this better than anyone. I’m starting to have serious doubts about their Super Bowl chances, but not just because they lost one game. The Broncos and Patriots are the class of the AFC, and they are on pace to meet again in the Championship game. The problem, once again, was how bad Peyton looked in cold weather. His throws had no zip, he couldn’t get any downfield throws to Thomas or Decker, and he couldn’t throw into the wind. How is he supposed to win in January and February in Denver/New England/New York for the Super Bowl if he can’t complete passes through the icy air? The Broncos have to figure that out. Denver 34, Kansas City 20

CIN vs SD (-1.5) - The Bengals are still in control of the AFC North, which means they have to lose a game to make everyone nervous about them because that’s their specialty. The Chargers, meanwhile, after blowing a game in Miami, decide to put up 41 on the Chiefs on the road to get everyone on the bandwagon again. They will win this game to get back to 6-6 and make everyone say, “here come the Chargers for a late-season run!”, before promptly losing next week to blow their chance to get into the playoffs. This is obvious. We’ve seen this story before from both teams. Neither are serious threats in the AFC in the big picture. You know who has turned himself into a genuine household name, though? Danny Woodhead. Good for him. He’s good enough to play in this league for years to come, even outside the New England system. He gets into the end zone here. Cincinnati 22, San Diego 26

NYG (-1.5) vs WAS - Talk about laying an egg last week, for both teams. Why are the Shanahans even still in Washington? The demise of this team has been beautiful to watch. As for the Giants...how do you let Tony Romo beat you in the clutch? It was all set up beautifully for a classic comeback win over the incompetent Cowboys. Ugh. I’m taking the Giants and running away. Maybe Hakeem Nicks would like to finally get into the end zone? I know Reuben Randle will! New York 27, Washington 20

NO (+6) vs SEA - What a Monday Night matchup. This game is basically for NFC supremacy. If the Saints win, they take over the number one seed in the conference, and if they can secure it, the road to the Super Bowl goes through New Orleans. If the Seahawks win, they are all but guaranteed the top spot in the NFC, meaning everyone has to travel up to the Pacific Northwest, where Russell Wilson has never lost. A huge story that no one is talking about is how many players for Seattle are being busted for performance-enhancing drugs. Almost the entire defense is cheating, leading to this incredible nickname being born: the Seadderall Seahawks. Bless whoever came up with that gem. I think the Hawks will win at home, but I’m taking the points simply because it’s a lot to ask for someone to outscore a Drew Brees team by a touchdown, no matter the location. I think this has the makings of a classic middle-scoring game with some efficient offense and defensive stands when necessary, kind of like the Pats-Panthers game from a couple of weeks ago. New Orleans 24, Seattle 28

Lock of the Week: ARI (+3), NE (-9)

Performance of the Week: Sticking with the Turkey Day games here with a trio of wide receivers: Megatron, Dez, and Jacoby Jones

Surprise of the Week: Long term prediction: the 6 seed in the AFC will be won by either the Baltimore Ravens or the Buffalo Bills.

There you have it, my picks for Week 13. Once again, I want to wish everyone a wonderful Thanksgiving and Hanukkah for my Jewish brethren (My first night present: the Game of Thrones books! Finally going to read them.), and hope that all of you can spend some great time with your families. Thanksgiving marks the homestretch for the NFL season, and I can’t wait for a thrilling last few weeks. Brace yourselves...WINTER IS COMING.