Week 11 Preview
After weeks and weeks of waiting, we finally have a Sunday (and Monday!) of quality football, especially during the late games. There are three headline games: 49ers at Saints, a 4:25 start; Chiefs at Broncos, the Sunday Night game; and Patriots-Panthers, which is easily the best Monday Night matchup of the season. The playoff picture is starting to round into shape, but there are several spots that are still up for grabs, and the six seed in the AFC is one in particular that could be won or lost by the end of the weekend. Let’s knock these games out.
IND (-3.5) vs TEN - Nothing like the art of scoring a garbage time touchdown for a backdoor cover. The Colts were up ten with two minutes left, but played such soft defense down the stretch that they let Ryan Fitzpatrick torch them for six, and a final score of 30-27. The Colts, though, did get a win to take complete control of the AFC South. As for the Titans...in four days, they lost home games to the Jags and Colts, while losing Jake Locker for the season. That’s how you kill your playoff chances, which is a real shame, because I really wanted a chance for Bernard Karmell Pollard to get a shot at the Patriots in the playoffs.
ATL vs TB (-1) - The Bucs have played much better football lately...and what is happening to the Falcons? How was this team one play away from the Super Bowl last year? They are going to have a top five pick. And after we’ve all ridden off Tampa as trash, if they win this game then they will move ahead of the Falcons in the standings! Atlanta is an embarrassment. Atlanta 23, Tampa Bay 27
NYJ vs BUF (+2.5) - The Bills are good at home. They just are. And the Jets suck on the road. It just seems like one of those “perfect storm” kind of games. The Jets, as of right now, are in control of the 6 seed in the AFC, but that spot is going to come down to the final game of the season. When the Jets are supposed to win, they blow it. This is a gut call, but I think the Bills win the game. But no outcome of this game would surprise me. New York 17, Buffalo 27
DET (-3) vs PIT - Too much offense. The NFC North is the Lions’ division to lose. And while the Steelers have looked much better recently, they haven’t faced an offense like Detroit’s. Detroit 31, Pittsburgh 20
WAS (+4.5) vs PHI - I had the Eagles and the points but I changed my mind right before I started making my picks. Like the AFC’s 6 seed, I don’t think the NFC East winner will be decided until the last game of the year. The Eagles have been red hot, but they still don’t have a win at home, and Washington somehow plays better when they have no expectations whatsoever. But wow has Nick Foles been great. Washington 24, Philadelphia 20
BAL vs CHI (-3) - The Bears playing at home have too much offense, and while I think the Ravens can limit them, I don’t think that Baltimore has enough O to keep pace. I’m rooting for the Ravens to make a late-season run, but that win they had last week actually made me feel less confident about their chances. If they lose this game, they are done. Can they get it done on the road? Baltimore 16, Chicago 22
CLE (+4.5) vs CIN - This should be obvious if you know me at all. The door is still open for the Browns if they can get their best win of the season and take down the vulnerable Bengals. They are still in the playoff hunt! I’m going down with the ship. UPSET ALERT. Cleveland wins straight up and puts themselves in position to shock the world. I still believe. Cleveland 20, Cincinnati 13
OAK (+10) vs HOU - It doesn’t matter who is starting at QB for the Raiders. The Texans shouldn’t be favored by double digits over anyone. Oakland 20, Houston 27
ARI (-9) vs JAC - Still not picking the Jags ever again, although congratulations to them for finally getting a win last week! 0-16 will not happen this year. But again...I’m never picking them again for the rest of the season. Arizona 27, Jacksonville 14
SD (-3) vs MIA - This Dolphins situation is really out of control. I’m just going to pick the Chargers and leave it at that. And I’ll say that if San Diego can take care of business in this one, they should be your favorites to get the 6 seed. San Diego 26, Miami 16
MIN (+13) vs SEA - Ponder has his moments, and I’m expecting Adrian Peterson to keep the score close enough that they don’t get blown out. The Seahawks shouldn’t worry about this game, though; they should be able to cruise until they
get the Saints at home on Monday Night in a couple of weeks. That one will be great. Minnesota 20, Seattle 28
SF vs NO (-3.5) - At the Superdome, the Saints score 30. Always. The Niners don’t have the horses to compete, unless Frank Gore goes bananas, or unless the 49ers defense has their best game of the year. Meanwhile, San Francisco better be careful--they are only the 6 seed right now, and there are teams in the NFC that can catch them in the standings if they don’t start winning more often. That loss against the Panthers last week was the second time this season that the 49ers have been pushed around at home (Colts). Bad sign for a team that is supposed to be able to out-physical everyone. San Francisco 24, New Orleans 31
GB (+4) vs NYG - I’m picking the Giants to win, but even against Scott Tolzein, the Giants giving points is always dangerous. The Pack are still in the playoff hunt, but they desperately need Aaron Rodgers back. Green Bay 21, New York 24
KC (+7.5) vs DEN - Here’s my problem with this line. The Broncos have every right to be favored at home, because of the record-setting pace that Peyton Manning is on. But by over a touchdown? The Chiefs are giving up 12 points per game, they lead the NFL in sacks, they have a ruthless defense, and Manning has injuries to his ankles which means that he will be a sitting duck in the pocket. I think that the Chiefs are being treated like Boise State from the late 2000’s. Even though BSU was undefeated, the argument still raged about whether an undefeated mid-major team was deserving to be included in the National Championship Game over a one-loss SEC team. Why would it be so crazy if KC won this game? I think they match up really well: Smith doesn’t turn the ball over; Jamaal Charles can explode against an overrated Broncos defense; they can be physical with the Denver receivers defensively and force turnovers; there is a real chance that they can get a few hits on Manning (remember: the Broncos have multiple starters on the O-line out!) and knock him out of the game. I can’t believe I’m saying this, because I picked the Broncos to win the Super Bowl, but...UPSET ALERT! Chiefs win outright, earn the respect of the country, and move to 10-0. They deserve it. Kansas City 27, Denver 24
NE vs CAR (-1.5) - I’m biased because I hate the Patriots, and I picked the Panthers to make the playoffs this year. But this is the biggest game of Cam Newton’s career, and the biggest game for the Panthers as an organization in five years. Their finally-being-recognized brutal defense will be wired and energized, and we’ve already seen the Pats struggle on the road against ferocious D’s as they did in Cincinnati. The thing that scares me is that it is Brady and Belichick coming off a bye, and everyone is giving too much attention to the Panthers who might not be ready for this national spotlight. The Patriots are virtually unbeatable in November and December, but screw it. I’m in on this new Panthers team. DOWN WITH THE PATRIOTS. New England 24, Carolina 30
Lock of the Week: TB (-1), NO (-3.5)
Performance of the Week: Fred Jackson, Alshon Jeffrey
Surprise of the Week: CHIEFS NATION BABY
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