Wild Card Weekend + Playoff Predictions
Happy New Year, and Happy Playoffs, football fans! After four months of waiting, we have finally reached 2014 and the first round of the NFL postseason. We were witnesses to history in Denver (Manning), scandal in New England (Hernandez), and many significant injuries along the way (Rodgers, Wayne, Gronkowski, etc). We saw the breakouts of Nick Foles (and Chip Kelly), the Carolina Panthers, Josh Gordon, Jamaal Charles, Alshon Jeffrey, and Zac Stacy; the resurgence of Philip Rivers, the New Orleans Saints, and almost Carson Palmer; and the demise of the Washington Redskins, Josh Freeman, and the Detroit Lions. Week 17 itself was pretty wild as expected, with dramatic wins and playoff berths for the Packers, Chargers, and Eagles. I will delve into the events of the regular season at a later time, but this piece is all about looking into the future. The playoffs start today with two great matchups: Chiefs vs Colts, and Saints vs Eagles. In this post, I’ll provide picks for all four of these weekend’s games (and go round by round each week) with some specific player predictions as well as a shot at the entire playoff picture right now to see how accurately I can bet on the next month of action. In my Official 2013 NFL Predictions from before the season, I correctly selected 7 out of the 12 playoff teams to make the postseason; I picked Denver and Seattle to be the number one seeds in their respective conferences which came true, and my best team pick was to take the Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs. Of course, I had plenty of bad picks too, but we’re not going to talk about that right now. Let’s get right into the week’s picks, and I’ll finish up with my predictions for the entire playoffs.
KC vs IND (+1.5) - When I looked at the line yesterday, the Colts were still favored by a point, but the line swung really dramatically right before the game. Either way, I’m taking the Colts, and not just because they convincingly won in KC a couple of weeks ago either. The Chiefs have been fairly predictable all year; they beat up on bad teams early on in the season, but really struggled down the stretch against playoff talent. The Colts have been exactly the opposite, getting blown out by the Rams, Bengals, and Cardinals, but also incredibly defeating the 49ers, Broncos, and Seahawks. The Colts step up against top teams, while the Chiefs falter. The key to beating Kansas City is to contain Jamaal Charles, and Indy has the manpower and the home crowd behind them. Andrew Luck has been unbelievable thus far in his career, and will continue to progress along his path to superstardom. Last year, he led the Colts to a Wild Card berth but lost his first playoff game against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens. This year, he won the division, and will win his first playoff game. Indy gets ahead early on a defensive touchdown and never looks back, forcing Alex Smith to try to beat them. Smith will throw two touchdowns, but Andrew Luck will throw for 275 and have two touchdowns of his own. Donald Brown will also get into the end zone by reception, and Robert Mathis will have 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble. The Colts will move on to either Denver or New England. Kansas City 17, Indianapolis 24
NO vs PHI (-3) - This has less to do with Philly as it does with New Orleans’ immense struggles in the outdoors. The Saints are dominant at home, where they were 8-0 and were basically a lock for 30 points a game, but that won’t do much good as the six seed. They are a completely different team on the road, where they finished 3-5. Does a truly great team have a losing record on the road? I say no. Their three road wins? Tampa by two, before they were not atrocious; Chicago by eight, and Atlanta by four after they were atrocious. For some reason, they can’t perform nearly as well away from the Superdome, and don’t have Pierre Thomas for this game either. This is a bigger deal than you think, because Drew Brees has spent an extraordinary amount of time passing to his running backs Thomas and Sproles this season rather than his wide outs. The Eagles are red hot, and are riding Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy for all they are worth. Usually Drew Brees and Sean Payton are the QB-coach duo you think of when picturing a dynamic duo, but Foles and Kelly are quickly taking that title from them, especially outdoors. Big advantage for the Eagles with snow on the ground, and they will bring their blistering pace into Carolina next week. Brees has 350 yards and two touchdowns, but will have to throw it 53 times with two turnovers as well, including the dagger in the fourth quarter. Foles will have a more modest 284 yards and a TD or two, but the superstar day will be had by Shady. New Orleans 20, Philadelphia 31
SD (+7) vs CIN - How the hell did the Chargers even get in the playoffs? It took an incredible missed field goal, a ludicrous no-call, and major luck in overtime to barely get past the Kansas City second stringers. Then they received the necessary help with Baltimore and Miami each losing (Side note: what are you doing, Miami? They got shut out by the Bills and lost at home to Geno Smith to end the season, when one win would have got them in the playoffs). Pittsburgh should feel very slighted about missing out on the postseason, but in fairness, they were only 8-8, so they don’t have much beef. Anyway, the Chargers may be lucky to have gotten the six seed in the AFC, but they are a very dangerous squad. They have a tremendous advantage at the quarterback position which is a huge bonus in a road playoff game. They just beat the Broncos in Denver, so going into Cincinnati will not scare the Chargers one bit. The Bengals might have gone 8-0 at home, but if you’ve read my picks all season, you know that I am not sold on them. Even if they win a playoff game, which is something that Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis have never done, they are going to get throttled by New England next week, so what’s the fun in picking them. The Chargers are led by a playoff veteran and have already proved that they could go into Mile High and beat Peyton Manning, which is what they would have to do in the second round. I think Philip Rivers continues his bounce-back season and picks apart Cincy for 300 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, and Ryan Matthews. Ryan Matthews (if healthy) and Danny Woodhead will combine for 7 catches and 150 rushing yards. On the other side, Andy Dalton will throw three interceptions, and if the Chargers are smart they will double team AJ Green all day. A possible x-factor for the Bengals: Giovani Bernard. Ladies and gentlemen, we have our first playoff UPSET ALERT! San Diego 27, Cincinnati 14
SF vs GB (+3) - This is a tremendous matchup, especially now that Aaron Rodgers is back. I still have no idea how Green Bay got into the postseason; Aaron Rodgers missed almost half the season, as did Randall Cobb, while Clay Matthews has been out for an extended period of time as well. Yet they hung around in the suddenly awful NFC North and won miraculously in Chicago to end the season. Those three converted fourth downs were magnificent, especially the game-winning play from Rodgers to Cobb with under a minute to play. The Pack are going to go on in F-U mode at some point soon now that their QB is back; it will either be in these playoffs, or a run into late January next year. At full strength, their offense is terrifying with Rodgers, Lacy, Nelson, Jones, and Cobb. The tough part about this pick is that Colin Kaepernick has torched the Packers twice in a row now with his arms and legs, and the Niners are on a strong winning streak. After looking vulnerable early in the season, San Francisco has looked dominant the last few weeks, and almost stole the NFC West from the Seahawks. Michael Crabtree, while not lighting up the stat sheet, has provided depth for the passing attack that thus far was centralized around Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. The 49ers will be ready for a battle with the aforementioned studs and Frank Gore still pumping out first downs on the ground. There are two factors that swayed my decision to take the Cheeseheads, not including the fact that I hate the Niners and like the Packers: first, that it’s Aaron Rodgers playing at home; second, that it is going to be negative degrees in Lambeau Field on Sunday. People who say weather doesn’t make a difference in sports is kidding themselves; going from warm weather to negative temperature is a significant change. Give me the Packers to finally take down the 49ers in a clash worthy of being the NFC Championship Game. Kaepernick will have 324 total yards and a touchdown and turnover each. Frank Gore will have a throwback performance of 100 yards and a TD, but the defense will struggle if Rodgers can successfully spread them out wide. Aaron Rodgers will throw for 300 yards with two touchdowns, while Eddie Lacy will punch a touchdown in late in the game. Out of the three top Green Bay receivers, I think that Jordy Nelson will have the biggest night with over 100 yards and at least one touchdown. I’ll take the over on at least 50% players that wear sleeves, even though all football players try to be macho like it proves something. The Packers move on to the divisional round. San Francisco 24, Green Bay 27
So now that we’ve taken care of the picks this weekend, let’s take a look at my predictions for the entire postseason. Before the year I took Denver to win the Lombardi Trophy...will I keep my pick the same?
AFC NFC
6 SD 27 5 KC 17 6 NO 20 5 SF 24
3 CIN 14 4 IND 24 3 PHI 31 4 GB 27
6 SD 24 4 IND 23 4 GB 23 3 PHI 27
1 DEN 34 2 NE 27 1 SEA 20 2 CAR 20
2 NE 31 4 GB 31
1 DEN 34 3 PHI 24
Super Bowl
1 DEN 31
3 GB 27
Yes I will. I’m still picking the Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl, although that is hardly an objective pick. Firstly, I’ve had the Broncos winning it all since August, and they have done nothing to make me want to change my mind. Peyton Manning has had the greatest statistical season ever by a quarterback, and it’s hard to bet against that, even given his playoff track record and the recent loss of Von Miller. The NFC side of the playoff picture is much more interesting, as I do think the Green Bay Packers will make it to the Super Bowl now that Aaron Rodgers is back and ready to roll. I think that they will shock the world and take out the Seattle Seahawks in round two, and will meet the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game after the latter upsets the Carolina Panthers. I would love for the Panthers to get to the Super Bowl, but although they had a great season, I don’t think they have enough offensive weapons to make it there in Cam Newton’s first postseason. The Broncos will defeat the Pack in Giants Stadium in an offensive showdown between the two premiere quarterbacks in the NFL. I feel that it is now or never for Peyton Manning to win his second ring, because he will never be as good again as he was this year. Go Broncos, and good luck to all your teams this weekend. Happy 2014, and Happy Playoffs.
Lock of the Week: IND (+1.5)
Performance of the Week: LeSean McCoy, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Mathis
Surprise of the Week: Chargers over Bengals!
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