Official 2013 NFL Predictions!!!!!

Official 2013 NFL Predictions

On February 3rd, 2013, the Baltimore Ravens defeated the San Francisco 49ers to win Super Bowl XLVII, capping off an incredible career for Ray Lewis and earning Joe Flacco an enormous contract. It has been exactly seven months since then, 212 long days since we’ve had our last taste of meaningful football. After all this waiting, we are now only hours away from the kickoff of a new season. The Ravens will defend their Super Bowl title with a much different-looking team from the one in February, and they will open up the season IN Denver. How did this not get worked out somehow, where the Ravens could open up the season in front of their home fans? Pathetic. The Ravens vs Broncos game is one of several that highlight the NFL schedule this season. There are plenty of rematches of playoff games from last postseason, as well as several “return” games: Reid going back to Philly, Welker facing off against the Patriots in New England, and, biggest of all, Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis. There are so many storylines surrounding teams and players (most of which were covered in my team by team previews), and more competitive teams in the league than any time in recent memory. For example, I think that every single team in the NFC will have at least seven wins, while in the AFC there are five or six teams that could potentially jump three wins up and make a playoff push. In this season preview, I’m going to be making all my predictions, here in one place. I’ll have my final standings, picks for the playoffs and the Super Bowl, some fantasy rankings, and some smart bets to make if you’re into that kind of thing. This piece will have everything imaginable for you to know my thoughts for this coming season, and it’ll be fun to look back when the year is over to see how I fared. Note: if you’re only reading this to see my Super Bowl pick (which you should, because I picked Baltimore last year), I’ll be saving that for last, so you can skip right to the end. But I’d appreciate it if you stick with me all the way through, and remember, all feedback is appreciated. Who do you have winning the Super Bowl? It could be anyone; that’s the beauty of a new season, everyone starts out 0-0.

Standings

AFC West North South East

DEN: 12-4 BAL: 10-6 HOU: 10-6       NE: 11-5

KC: 7-9 CLE: 9-7 IND: 10-6                        BUF: 7-9

SD: 6-10 CIN: 9-7 JAC: 5-11                         MIA: 7-9

OAK: 5-11 PIT: 7-9 TEN: 4-12                        NYJ: 1-15

NFC West North South East

SEA: 11-5 GB: 11-5 ATL: 11-5                           DAL: 9-7   

SF: 10-6 DET: 8-8 CAR: 9-7                            NYG: 9-7 

STL: 8-8 CHI: 8-8 TB: 8-8                               PHI: 8-8

ARI: 7-9 MIN: 7-9   NO: 8-8                             WAS: 8-8

Playoff Seeds (1-6)

AFC: DEN, NE, BAL, HOU, IND, CLE           NFC: SEA, ATL, GB, DAL, SF, CAR

A few notes about my standings: first, as I’ve said before, the Cleveland Browns will make the playoffs, while the other five teams will be returning teams. Next, Seattle will beat San Francisco to get a home playoff game. I literally changed my mind like two minutes ago over the NFC East race, and I know I’m going to have bad karma for picking against my Giants, but I now have the Dallas Cowboys winning the division, with the Giants missing the playoffs on tiebreakers. In reality, I do hope the Giants find a way to make the playoffs, but the Cowboys’ roster is just more talented, and Big Blue is like the Big Black and Blue because of how banged up they are. The Buffalo Bills record is assuming EJ Manuel plays at least 14 games, I really like him a lot. Finally, the race for the six seed in the NFC will be fierce, and I’ve been high on Tampa Bay all offseason, but now I’ve decided that Cam Newton is going to be great, and Josh Freeman will not. If I’m wrong about Carolina, then one of the North teams, either Detroit or Chicago, will grab that spot. My playoff picks and Super Bowl Champion will be at the end of the piece. Here’s a hint for my Super Bowl matchup if you want to guess: I love me some of the animal-named teams this year. Also, I hate taking both favorites.

Fantasy Rankings

I’ve got some fantasy ranking predictions for the major positions, which I’ve never done before, so you can choose to trust me or not, I understand.

QB

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB
2. Drew Brees, NO
3. Cam Newton, CAR
4. Peyton Manning, DEN
5. Matt Ryan, ATL
6. Matthew Stafford, DET
7. Tom Brady, NE
8. Russell Wilson, SEA
9. Andrew Luck, IND
10. Tony Romo, DAL
11. Colin Kaepernick, SF
12. Robert Griffin III, WAS

RB

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN
2. Jamaal Charles, KC
3. Doug Martin, TB
4. Marshawn Lynch, SEA
5. Arian Foster, HOU
6. LeSean McCoy, PHI
7. Trent Richardson, CLE
8. Stevan Ridley, NE
9. CJ Spiller, BUF
10. Matt Forte, CHI
11. Ray Rice, BAL
12. Steven Jackson, ATL
13. Reggie Bush, DET
14. Alfred Morris, WAS
15. Chris Johnson, TEN

WR

1. Dez Bryant, DAL
2. Calvin Johnson, DET
3. AJ Green, CIN
4. Brandon Marshall, CHI
5. Julio Jones, ATL
6. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
7. Demaryius Thomas, DET
8. Randall Cobb, GB
9. Victor Cruz, NYG
10. Roddy White, ATL
11. Vincent Jackson, TB
12. Wes Welker, DEN
13. Marques Colston, NO
14. T.Y. Hilton, IND
15. Dwayne Bowe, KC
16. Josh Gordon, CLE
17. Pierre Garcon, WAS
18. Andre Johnson, HOU
19. James Jones, GB
20. Torrey Smith, BAL

TE

1. Jimmy Graham, NO
2. Brandon Myers, NYG
3. Greg Olsen, CAR
4. Tony Gonzalez, ATL
5. Jason Witten, DAL
6. Rob Gronkowski, NE
7. Jordan Cameron, CLE
8. Vernon Davis, SF
9. Owen Daniels, HOU
10. Kyle Rudolph, MIN

D/ST

1. SEA
2. STL
3. CHI
4. CLE
5. CIN
6. HOU
7. SF
8. ARI
9. DEN
10. NE

K

1. Matt Bryant, ATL
2. Justin Tucker, BAL
3. Stephen Gostowski, NE
4. Blair Walsh. MIN
5. Dan Bailey, DEN

Smart Bets

I’m very competitive, I love games, I love sports, and I love winning money. These qualities combined are dangerous, as I’ll have to make sure I do not become a chronic sports gambler. That said, I still love to look at odds and lines, to see what I would bet on if I had the balls. So this year, I’m going to list a bunch of my money-making bets, from team over/under win totals, to individual stat lines, to who to bet on to win the Super Bowl. Now, keep in mind, not all of these are what I expect to happen, but they are what I think are the smartest bets you can make, to get the most bang for your buck. You’ll see what I mean in a little bit. All of the odds I’m going to use are based on sportsbook.com, so if you’re interested, you can find the bets there. Let’s do this.

Over/Under Team Wins

BAL 8.5: OVER (-120). The defending champs won’t be over .500? Come on.

CLE 6.5: OVER (-155). All in on the Browns.

NO 9.5: UNDER (+110). Down on the Saints. Single digit wins for them.

NYJ 6.5: UNDER (-130). Combine with Team With Worst Record (+1200).

Awards

MVP

Value: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton (+2500)

Favorite: Peyton Manning (+400)

My MVP pick: Aaron Rodgers (+600)

Offensive Rookie of the Year

EJ Manuel (+600)

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Alec Ogletree (+1800)

Defensive Player of the Year: Luke Kuechly, CAR

Coach of the Year: Rob Chudzinski, CLE

Super Bowl Picks (value picks, my pick later)

ATL (+1400)

BAL (+4000)

CLE (+10,000)

NYG (+2500)

PHI (+6000)

Playoff Predictions

AFC NFC

6 CLE     13 5 IND       27 5 SF       24 6 CAR    24 

3 BAL     23 4 HOU     20 4 DAL   20 3 GB       31

Round 1 recap: Both 3 seeds and 5 seeds win. AFC games set up great matchups (IND-DEN, BAL-NE), while in the NFC we get the dream matchup (SF-SEA), while Dallas comes up short. Romo will get all the blame, even though the Cowboys will play well.

5 IND     24 3 BAL      20 3 GB      20 5 SF       16

1 DEN    31 2 NE        24 2 ATL    23 1 SEA    20

Round 2 recap: Both 1 and 2 seeds win, which normally I’m against. The Patriots FINALLY beat the Ravens, who aren’t the same, and will travel to Denver to have another Brady-Peyton AFC Championship. In the NFC we get the Falcons and Seahawks, a rematch of the playoff game from last year.

2 NE         24 2 ATL   24 

1 DEN      27 1 SEA    17

Conference Championship recap: Peyton outduels Brady with a last second drive to get back to the Super Bowl, and Atlanta finishes the job they couldn’t complete last year: winning (on the road, in Seattle!) the big game, and getting to the promised land. This sets up a matchup between the Broncos and Falcons for a Super Bowl title.

2 ATL    20

1 DEN    24

So there you have it. I think that Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos will win Super Bowl XLVIII in MetLife Stadium. I hate doing this, because Denver is the favorite to win it all and I try to always go against that, because so rarely does the favorite win, but I almost have to go with the Broncos by default. In the AFC, I am never going to take the Patriots to make the Super Bowl (unless it would be against the Giants, which I was planning on doing until I lost confidence in the G-Men). I don’t think the Ravens are good enough to get back to the title game, and I don’t think Houston can make it with Matt Schaub running the show. Plus, Peyton Manning is my favorite player of all time, so the Broncos will represent the AFC. The tough part was trying to sort out the NFC, where in my opinion, four teams (ATL, GB, SEA, SF) could realistically get to MetLife Stadium. I’m obviously not going to take the Niners, and I’m not going to go with the classic non-creative frontrunning matchup of Denver vs Seattle, even though I think that they are the top team in the conference. That leaves the Falcons and Packers, and I just think the Green Bay defense isn’t good enough to make it through the NFC. The Falcons have the most balanced offense in the whole league, probably, now that Steven Jackson is their running back, and I believe Matt Ryan will be the latest young quarterback waiting for a new contract who succeeds in the playoffs and gets a huge deal. Ryan broke through last year by winning his first playoff game, and I think he’ll only continue to improve. This is the year for them, as S-Jax is still a force of nature for the time being, and Tony Gonzalez is still there. Julio Jones will break out, and the Falcons’ defense, like the Broncos’ will be just good enough to make it through the gauntlet. As far as the game itself, I think Denver is just a little bit better than Atlanta. Their defenses are pretty even, but the Falcons don’t have a stud pass rusher like Von Miller, and while both teams have a superb group of wide outs, Denver’s trio is more dangerous than Atlanta’s duo. This might be Peyton Manning’s last chance to win another Super Bowl, and I would love nothing more than to see him really solidify his legacy by winning a second ring. I feel like taking Denver is so obvious of a pick, especially since there are so many things that could go wrong (Peyton’s arm strength dwindling again, no running game, Miller or Bailey injuries, etc.), I just think that there’s no team in the AFC that is in their class. The closest team is New England, but I’m not going to pick Tom Brady over Peyton Manning in any scenario. The Broncos will defeat the Falcons 24-20, and Peyton Manning will win MVP, naturally. Here are my stat predictions for the game:

Manning: 26-37, 303 yds, 2 TD

Ryan: 21-33, 277 yds, 2 TD, INT

Ball: 14 rush, 64 yds, TD

Hillman: 10 rush, 44 yds

Jackson: 22 rush, 88 yds

Thomas: 7 rec, 94 yds

Decker: 5 rec, 63 yds, TD

Welker: 8 rec, 92 yds, TD

Jones: 4 rec, 55 yds

White: 8 rec, 101 yds, TD

Gonzalez: 6 rec, 67 yds, TD

Denver will lead 10-6 at halftime, but in the second half, each team will find their offenses and score two touchdowns each. The Broncos will go up 17-6, and Atlanta will respond by getting a touchdown right at the end of the third quarter. Halfway through the 4th, Ryan will hook up with White on a 44-yard TD to take the lead, 20-17. Finally, Peyton will throw a 21-yard TD to Decker with 3:43 left in the game to win, 24-20. Ryan, needing a touchdown to win, will drive Atlanta down to the Denver 26 yard line but on third and 8 throw an interception in the end zone trying to hit Julio Jones. Rahim Moore will get the pick, making up for his famous mistake against the Ravens last year. If all goes well, hopefully there will be some light snow falling in the first half, because there is nothing quite like football in the elements. Matt Ryan might very well get a Super Bowl ring at some point in his future, but this night will belong to Peyton Manning, who is still the King of Quarterbacks. He wants another ring, and he will take what is his with fire and blood.

That wraps up my official NFL predictions for the 2013 season. To recap: my surprises to make the playoffs are the Dallas Cowboys, the Carolina Panthers, and the CLEVELAND BROWNS. I love Ridley, Richardson, and Reggie Bush (in PPR leagues especially) as my fantasy RB. Dez Bryant will be the top WR this season, and Larry Fitzgerald will bounce back. I also love T.Y. Hilton and Josh Gordon as late round sleepers. The Rams and Browns D/ST will be top five, and Jordan Cameron will be a top ten tight end. Definitely take the OVER on Cleveland wins and UNDER on Jets wins. I’m picking Denver to win the Super Bowl, but a really smart value pick is PHI (+6000), as they have incredibly high upside and could take the league by storm with that offense. The two conference championship games will be Broncos-Patriots and Seahawks-Falcons, and in the Super Bowl, the Denver Broncos will defeat the Atlanta Falcons. Here’s to a great football season everyone, and good luck to all your favorite teams.