Week 4 Preview
Well what do you know, I had another HUGE week! Week 3 brought me ELEVEN correct picks with the point spread, which I think is the best performance of the last two seasons. I had a plethora of great predictions, with my winners including the Browns, Ravens, Dolphins, Seahawks (by 20!!!), Colts, and Titans by exactly three. The biggest shocker of the weekend, however, came on the opposite side of the spectrum. As my lock of the week, I picked the Giants to win big over the Carolina Panthers, a prediction that really could not go any worse. The G-Men was such an obvious pick; how could the two-time Super Bowl Champion New York Giants fall to 0-3? They always seem to bounce back and surprise us just when we think they are dead, right? It just wasn’t meant to be on Sunday, and Cam Newton and the Panthers completely dropped the hammer on Big Blue 38-0, with the vaunted front seven of Carolina sacking Eli Manning six times in the first half. The Panthers, meanwhile, are two blown fourth quarters away from 3-0, and the Giants have been dominated three times. They go on to Kansas City to face the undefeated Chiefs this Sunday, and by September’s end it is very possible that we might see the mighty Giants at 0-4. On to the slate for Week 4...hopefully I can have my first ever three-week stretch of double digit wins! But first a quick non-football note: I am as big a Yankee fan there is in this world, and with all the emotions of the last week, you can bet that there will be a giant Yankees piece sometime in the next week. Keep an eye out for that, it will be worth it.
SF vs STL (+3.5) - The Thursday games are always sloppy, which is really unfortunate because this is such a major turning point game in the scope of the NFC, and especially the West division. After a shocking beatdown at the hands of the Colts at home, the 49ers have been destroyed for two weeks in a row. They now have to play on a short week against their division rival St. Louis Rams who is not only really underrated at home, but did not lose to San Francisco in 2012! Remember, the Rams were 1-0-1 against the Niners last season, and San Fran might really be in trouble. Kaepernick has looked lost ever since his initial explosion against the Packers, while Frank Gore and Anquan Boldin have been taken away. Their defense hasn’t been elite either since the end of last season, and now Patrick Willis is banged up while stud pass rusher Aldon Smith has been checked into rehab and may miss up to a month, reportedly. St. Louis has more weapons on offense, and while they have really fallen behind early in all three games this season, maybe this is the time that they put a full game together. Thursday night games are crazy, and while 3.5 points isn’t a large enough margin to be considered an upset, I’m going for an outright win for the home underdog. Some quick praise, though, for Colin Kaepernick (I know, what???), even though it’s a couple of weeks after the fact: his line after the Green Bay game (“If intimidation is your game plan, I hope you have a better one”), was great. I loved it. It was confident but not cocky, and firm enough to send the message to Green Bay that they just got played. Unfortunately, they haven’t won since, and I think their losing streak continues. San Francisco 16, St. Louis 20
PIT vs MIN (+2.5) - Before you get surprised about how the Vikings are home underdogs against an equally putrid Pittsburgh team, keep in mind: this game will be played in London. I hate London games maybe even more than Thursday night games, and I am firmly opposed to moving a franchise out to England permanently. Both these teams stink; the Steelers aren’t right on either side of the ball, and the loss of Pouncey at center has really hurt. The Vikings, meanwhile, have let multiple games slip through their hands, the latest of which being a last-second home loss to the Cleveland Browns. I think that tells you all you need to know. The difference makers in this one: Adrian Peterson is the best player on the field, and Christian Ponder did have two rushing touchdowns last week against a good Browns defense. I don’t know. I’ll just think the Vikings are too good to be 0-4. Pittsburgh 20, Minnesota 24
BAL (-3) vs BUF - The Ravens are becoming the Giants, in terms of being the don’t-freak-out-over-one-game team of the NFL. People freaked out over their opening shellacking in Denver, and while they didn’t impress in a Week 2 win over Cleveland, they finally played a solid game against Houston last Sunday. They are now 2-1, and are entering a soft part of their schedule. Baltimore will be fine, but in order to compete at the next level, their offense still needs some improvement. Meanwhile, the Bills just look like a team that isn’t quite ready to take the next step, even though they’ve had some bright spots. EJ Manuel and linebacker Kiko Alonso are young players who have come in and look like they might be central parts of their respective sides of the ball for the next ten to twelve years in Western New York. But they couldn’t even beat the Jets who spotted them twenty (20!!!!) penalties, and their schedule only gets harder. Take the Ravens here, who should be able to pound the rock. Baltimore 27, Buffalo 14
CIN vs CLE (+4.5) - The Browns are playing some games with my heart. They let me down the first two weeks, traded Trent Richardson, and then boom! Enter Brian Hoyer, and Cleveland comes up with a big win on the road! Oh, and who are the guys I was really high before the season started? Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon! You’re welcome, everyone. Now obviously, the Browns still have a lot of holes; they have no running game, and maybe Brian Hoyer was a one-game wonder. But they are on the board in the win column, and if they can pull a big win out this week, they will be 2-2 and in second place in the North. I was lying last week! I never jumped off the bandwagon! UPSET ALERT BABY. Cincinnati 13, Cleveland 19
IND vs JAC (+9.5) - This is a classic perception line. The Colts, after starting the season with two home games which they barely escaped the Raiders and could not overtake the Dolphins, had their best win in the Andrew Luck era by thrashing the 49ers on the road as a double digit underdog. They will be taking on Jacksonville, coming off an embarrassing performance up in Seattle, which everyone expected. I don’t think Indy should be favored by almost double digits on the road against anyone, no matter how bad the team. Now, can they beat the lowly Jaguars by ten or more? Absolutely. But this smells like the sucker bet of the week. Don’t get caught up in the hype, although I do love me some Andrew Luck, who I’m starting on my (3-0) fantasy team this week. Colts move to 3-1, and Trent Richardson has a little more of an impact this week. Indianapolis 24, Jacksonville 16
SEA (-3) vs HOU - The Texans are who I thought they were: overrated. Their defense is pretty solid overall, but their offense is severely limited, and they can’t be trusted to beat a top team on the road. They really are lucky to not be 0-3, and now they have the Seahawks coming to town. It won’t be a blowout, but I think this game will be decisive. Look out for Marshawn Lynch! Seattle 23, Houston 9
ARI (+2.5) vs TB - What could have been for the Bucs if they had the right coach and quarterback...reports are that Tampa is benching Josh Freeman for rookie Mike Glennon, who, honestly, I really don’t know much about. The Bucs do have plenty of talent to go around, probably more than any other 0-3 team, but they have had dreadful QB play, and I think Schiano will be shown the door sooner rather than later. Glennon might be good, but Arizona has a pretty good team (Honey Badger in the third round is looking like a steal), and I think they come out of Tampa Bay with a win, pushing the Bucs to 0-4. Note: I did have Tampa in this game until they announced the quarterback switch. No hard feelings, Mike Glennon. Arizona 27, Tampa Bay 20
CHI vs DET (-2.5) - Big game for both teams. The Bears are 3-0, with two final-minute wins, and a decent win over Pittsburgh last Sunday night. They still really haven’t had a signature win, though, but they have an opportunity this week, on the road against a potentially really good Detroit Lions team. It will be the first great test for their suffocating defense, especially since Reggie Bush says he’ll be back this week. The Lions, meanwhile, are 2-1 and also searching for that first big time victory, and can establish themselves as legitimate contenders in a powerful NFC conference. I think they have enough spark on offense to defeat Chicago this week, as I just don’t see the Bears being 4-0. But a very big September matchup. Remember, Green Bay is sitting at 1-2 and on a bye this week, so a Bears win would give them two wins in the division, and a two and a half game lead over the Packers in the first month of the season! Chicago 17, Detroit 26
NYG vs KC (-5) - This one hurts me. I really thought the Giants would win last week and not only did they lose, but they were embarrassed. Now they have to go on the road to face a legit Kansas City Chiefs team, who has made a living so far dominating turnover margin. The Giants...turn the ball over a lot. Not a good matchup. Wrong team, wrong time for Big Blue. New York 17, Kansas City 24
NYJ (+4) vs TEN - Whoa! After this game, one of these teams is going to be 3-1 in a wide open AFC! And you know what? This Jets defense looks really good! I can’t believe what’s gotten into me! I’m going to make an exception on this half-point thing and go UPSET ALERT UP IN HERE. Geno Smith has looked, like, almost decent! Give me some of the Kool-Aid! New York 23, Tennessee 17
DAL (-2) vs SD - No idea how to go about this game. San Diego has been pretty good, but have blown two games in the fourth quarter now, while Dallas maybe has seemed good but overall has underwhelmed. DeMarco Murray was fantastic facing the Rams last week, but then again, that is the only team he is great against. I still think the overall talent of the Cowboys will be enough to get a nice road win. It seems like a perfect scenario for a Romo throwing for two touchdowns in the final eight minutes to steal a win kind of game. Dallas 27, San Diego 24
WAS (-3.5) vs OAK - I mean...they can’t be THAT bad, right? Season on the line for Washington. Washington 28, Oakland 17
PHI vs DEN (-11.5) - This seems like a huge line considering the Eagles can put up points in a hurry. But I’m going to ride the Broncos until someone proves me otherwise. I think this is going to be a perfect storm for Philly, but in a bad way, like they are walking into a full blown Sharknado. They will try to hurry up the game, only to go three and out, and give the ball to Peyton Manning, who will speed it up himself, and cause the Eagles defense to pass out at that speed and altitude. This is my blowout candidate for the week, and I think that the Broncos cover. I’d be shocked if they were held under 40. Philadelphia 19, Denver 41
NE vs ATL (-2.5) - The Pats are a fluky 3-0. Not that they didn’t deserve to win those games, but in no way have they seemed like a dominant team. They just had the fortune of playing three of the ten worst offenses in the league. Now they have to go down to Atlanta, a place where Matt Ryan seldom loses, to face a reeling Falcons team in need of a win. And I think they get it. New England 24, Atlanta 31
MIA vs NO (-6.5) - Congratulations to the Dolphins for being 3-0! They established themselves as a team to be taken seriously by taking down the Falcons last week with a touchdown in the final minute of play. The bad news: they are facing the Saints. In New Orleans. On a Monday Night. Throw in the fact that they will be without star pass rusher Cameron Wake, and those factors alone add up to more than a touchdown of disadvantages. I’ll take the Saints here with the points, even though I a) think that Miami is here to stay, and b) think that even at 4-0, the Saints will still be a tad overrated. But with Sean Payton back and an improved defense, they have to be sitting pretty in a disappointing NFC South. Miami 24, New Orleans 34
Lock of the Week: BAL (-3) vs BUF
Performance of the Week: Marshawn Lynch, and for some reason, Knowshon Moreno!
Surprise of the Week: FIVE underdogs winning STRAIGHT UP, Jaguars cover, Jets go to 3-1, 49ers fall to 1-3
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