2013 NFL Week 2 Preview

Week 2 Preview

Before I make my picks for Week 2, I need to start by making a couple of apologies. First, to the New York Jets, who I picked to go 1-15 and get slaughtered on Sunday. I will say that they can still finish 1-15, and that they were incredibly lucky to beat the Bucs this past Sunday because of an idiotic play. However, they were able to stay in the game the whole afternoon, and took advantage of the break they got. The Jets are now 1-0, and I will give them credit for that. More on them later. Next, to the four people reading this. I don’t know if it was rust, or poor judgment, but I really made awful picks last week. I only nailed 5 out of 16 games last week, and missed on both my “locks”. In fairness, though, many games almost fell in my favor. On opening night, I had Baltimore with the points, and they were WINNING at halftime, but then Peyton Manning did his Peyton Manning thing; PIT and TB (my two locks), each just collapsed offensively in amazing fashion; ATL and CLE each had leads well into the game and just fell apart towards the end. Additionally, out of my four upset picks, I only correctly called one of them. I cannot defend the Jacksonville pick, but Carolina and Green Bay had LEADS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER before losing in the end (and, of course, they couldn’t even hold on to cover). On a more positive note, my two best picks of the week were Oakland to cover against Indy (they almost won straight up!), and the Eagles to upset the Redskins. Out of all my upset picks, I said that the one I was most confident in was Philly over Washington, and that first half they played was the most dominant performance by any team in any half (offensively AND defensively) all weekend, including Denver’s second half last Thursday. I was happy about that one, but I had little else to smile about the rest of the week. So without further ado, here are my Week 2 picks, which you can trust, because there’s nowhere to go but up.

NYJ (+11.5) vs NE - As I said, I am shocked that the Jets beat Tampa Bay on Sunday. Geno Smith was not great, but he was not bad either, and for a first start, he was relatively solid. There is a little bit of promise here, even though I still don’t think he is good as EJ Manuel up in Buffalo. The Pats, meanwhile, barely escaped Buffalo with a win last week, needing a miracle drive from Brady when he completed all those just-enough-to-move-the-chains third down conversions to Danny Amendola. The Bills only needed one stop on that final drive, and couldn’t get it. Now for tonight, it looks like Amendola will be out, and Vareen will be out a long time. Who does New England have left? Edelman, Thompkins, and a reeling Stevan Ridley? Throw in the fact that the Jets defense looks very solid, and I think that this game will be down to one possession, unless Geno implodes and throws four picks. This line is way too high for a Patriots team who might have trouble scoring, although I still think that they get the job done, barely (again), at home. Look out--the Jets have a shot! New York 16, New England 20

SD (+8) vs PHI - Talk about making an entrance! That’s what Chip Kelly and his new-look rapid fire Eagles did on Monday Night against the Redskins, scoring 33 points in just over one half of football. They did, however, burn out a bit toward the end of the game, perhaps just because they were so far in front. Meanwhile, in the “other” Monday Night game, the Chargers jumped out to a 28-7 lead over the mighty Texans. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what happened next. After 24 unanswered points, Houston rallied for a 31-28 victory. New coach, same choke routine. However, I think the Chargers can keep it close this week. The Eagles will be very riled up, playing at home for the first time, and I think they will turn the ball over three times. However, they will force at least two of their own, and still win by a touchdown. As far as the spread, though, I’m taking San Diego and the points. San Diego 20, Philadelphia 27

CLE (+7) vs BAL - So Cleveland was very underwhelming on Sunday. I know. I said they would be good unless Brandon Weeden was still Brandon Weeden. He threw three picks in the first half. The pass-run play distribution was like 55-15, which is a recipe for disaster. However, the defense played well for most of the game (the Browns led at halftime), and they get Mingo in the lineup this week. Cleveland will also improve when Josh Gordon comes back from suspension Week 3. The Ravens are a better team than Cleveland, but they aren’t explosive. Definitely give me the Browns with the points. The bigger question is who wins this game straight up. Baltimore should win, but before the season I had CLE in this game, and if I’m right about them making the playoffs, they need to win this game. So I won’t call an Upset Alert on this game, but I’m picking the Browns. No confidence in that pick, but I have a good amount in taking them with the points. And look at the bright side for my Cleveland playoffs pick: they are still tied for first place in the AFC North! Cleveland 17, Baltimore 13

TEN (+9.5) vs HOU - I think that the Titans’ dominating performance over Pittsburgh was a bit of a fluke. However, I think that when Houston fell down three touchdowns to San Diego, that was not so much a fluke, either. The Titans won’t score a lot of points, but I don’t think the Texans will either. Also, what’s up with Arian Foster? He can’t be burned out already, can he? Close game. Tennessee 9, Houston 17

MIA vs IND (-3) - Finally taking a favorite this week! The Colts slumped to a victory over Oakland at home, while the Dolphins pulled out a win against Cleveland. One of these teams is going to be 2-0 with an inside track to the playoffs. And when it comes down to it, I’ll take Andrew Luck all day over Ryan Tannehill, who seems destined to always be one of those middle-of-the-pack guys like Cutler or Alex Smith. Miami 17, Indianapolis 24

CAR (-3) vs BUF - I don’t know where to go with this game. I like each of these teams, but one of them will be 0-2 by the end of Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams let fourth quarter leads slip away at home against superior teams last week, failing to capitalize on rare opportunities. I like Cam and EJ Manuel, and the fact that Carolina is favored by three on the road really scares me. However, I’m going to take the Panthers anyway. I have Carolina in the playoffs, and they won’t make it if they start out 0-2. Their front seven looked terrific last week against Seattle, and I think they will be able to overpower Buffalo and contain CJ Spiller. Carolina 27, Buffalo 21

STL (+7) vs ATL - The Rams really impressed in the fourth quarter last week by coming back from 11 down to Arizona and winning in the final minute. The Falcons, meanwhile, really let me down. I really thought they were going to beat the Saints. They only scored 17 points against statistically, the WORST DEFENSE IN NFL HISTORY LAST YEAR (by yardage). Atlanta ended last season by coming up short in the red zone against San Francisco last year in the NFC Championship Game. Just when you think they will take the next step, they had first and goal at the seven yard line with a minute left in the game, down six. They had four shots to get in the end zone from seven yards away, with Julio Jones, Steven Jackson, Tony Gonzalez, and the ghost of Roddy White, against a terrible defense. And they got stalled. It’s inexcusable. The only reason I have them winning this game against the Rams is because they are at home. Otherwise, this game has a lot of upset feel about it. Give me these seven points, because unless the Falcons really bust out like they couldn’t last week, it will be a close game. St. Louis 20, Atlanta 24

WAS vs GB (-7.5) - I think that 7.5 points is an incredibly high line for a team facing RGIII, but I have a feeling that they will be able to cover this spread. Washington really underwhelmed on Monday Night in Griffin’s return, and looked utterly overmatched in that first half. Don’t get fooled by the second half comeback; the Eagles were playing soft defense because they had this game well in hand. Now they have to go up to Lambeau for Green Bay’s home opener with a pissed off Aaron Rodgers. There’s no way they score less than 30. The only thing I’m scared about is that Washington gets a late garbage time TD to get within seven points, like they did against the Eagles last week. I’ll take my chances. Washington 20, Green Bay 34

DAL vs KC (-3) - I don’t know if I should be impressed with the Cowboys; performance from last week (forced 6 turnovers), or unimpressed (they only won by 5). After being given a huge lead, Dallas could not put the Giants away, and before that last pick-6 to ice the game, it sure looked like Eli (with 3 minutes left, down 6, ball at the 45) was going to go down and score the miracle winning touchdown. Meanwhile, if the Chiefs looked dominant, but it was against the Jaguars, was it really a dominant showing? I think they are good but not great. I had the Chiefs winning this game before the season, and I’m sticking with it now. With a banged up Dez, the Cowboys will struggle to find the end zone, and the Chiefs will win a tight game with a lot of field goals. Dallas 19, Kansas City 23

MIN (+6.5) vs CHI - Christian Ponder is terrible; the Chicago D is not. And it’s really that simple. However, the NFC North games are always close, and it’s tough to trash a team with Adrian Peterson lining up in the backfield. Last week, when Detroit stacked the box to stop AD, Ponder was atrocious and could not make the Lions pay. The Bears probably won’t even have to play eight men in to contain Peterson. I’m just uncomfortable taking the Bears in any scenario to outscore a team by a touchdown. Another close game that the favorite wins, but the underdog covers. At least one defensive TD for the Bears. Minnesota 22, Chicago 27

NO vs TB (+4) - I’m taking one more chance on the Buccaneers, the team I was really high on two months ago. The Saints were lucky to win last week at home, and the Bucs were unlucky to lose on the road. This is a big turning point already for these two teams. If the Saints are 1-1, then maybe they are average and not great, but a 2-0 start in the division means that New Orleans is for real; if the Bucs beat the Saints then they have some hope, but if they start out 0-2 with a loss to the Jets and a divisional home loss, then they are done. So four points as a home dog is too much to pass up in this situation for me. Tampa needs to make a stand. New Orleans 24, Tampa Bay 27

DET vs ARI (+2.5) - The Lions were definitely impressive to open the season, with an offensive attack against the Vikes. However, this is a classic letdown game for me. They rely so much on throwing the ball, and the Cardinals have an underrated defense, especially at home. Patrick Peterson can matchup one on one with Megatron, and the Arizona linebackers can stop the run. On the other side, Carson Palmer has three solid receivers to throw to: Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Roberts. After one game, the Lions are road favorites? I’ll take those points. Note: I’m very happy right now that I reached to take Reggie Bush in my PPR money fantasy league. If the Lions win this game, then they need to be taken seriously in the NFC playoff picture. Detroit 23, Arizona 24

JAC (+6) vs OAK - I will not be one of the 15 people watching this game. I think it will be a close game, but just horrible to try to look at. Terrelle Pryor’s running will make the difference. Plus I’m probably never going to pick the Jags to win anything ever again after last week’s no-show. Jacksonville 10, Oakland 13

DEN vs NYG (+5.5) - This game is really tough for me. Before the year I had the Giants winning this game. The Broncos, obviously, looked unstoppable on Opening Night with their thrashing of the Ravens. But that level of play is unsustainable; I doubt that Peyton will even throw for five touchdowns in another game this season. Meanwhile, the Giants were just horrendous on Sunday Night in Dallas, and still came within a botched check down of having a chance to win! The David Wilson Fumble Machine storyline is one that is interesting to see how Coughlin will handle. But if the Giants can get pressure on Peyton, don’t you think they have enough offensive firepower to at least be in the game? The way the G-Men work is whenever you count them out, they come back and reel you back in, making you remember why Eli is great and how they won two Super Bowls. This is certainly one of those times. But after watching the Giants turn it over six times, and seeing Peyton throw seven touchdowns, I just don’t have it in me to pick Big Blue in this one straight up. Denver 35, New York 31

SF vs SEA (-2.5) - This game will be phenomenal. Sunday Night, primetime, the two best (or at least most physical) teams in the league, in their first matchup as officially established superpowers, in Seattle (best home field advantage in the league), Kaep vs Wilson, Harbaugh vs Carroll...everything about this game just exudes instant classic. I was very impressed by Kaepernick (what?!?!??!) last week, and even more impressed with Anquan Boldin. Whoa! 13 catches for over 200 yards? You can be sure that the Seahawks won’t let that happen again. Obviously, if you have read my opinions before, you know where I stand. Overtime field goal to win. San Francisco 20, Seattle 23

PIT vs CIN (-7) - What happened to Pittsburgh last week? Holy crap. That was just pathetic. They lost Pouncey and Foote, and they have no legitimate offensive weapons. The Bengals blew the game in Chicago, but they have a tremendous defense, and that front is absolutely going to demolish what is left of the Pittsburgh offensive line. The reason I don’t trust Cincy in the long run, is because of what you saw in the offense last Sunday. Their game is to throw it up to AJ Green and let him go get the ball. That’s basically the only reliable way they can score points. But for Monday Night, they will be fine. Pittsburgh 13, Cincinnati 27

No official upset picks this week (Week 1 made me depressed), but there is potential for a few, as evidenced by the fact that I think there will be a lot of games where the favorites win, but the underdog will cover the spread. Odds are one or two of these games will result in upsets, but there aren’t any shocking picks that I love. I’m going to try these last predictions again, and if they don’t work, I might just scratch them. But here we go:

Lock of the Week: CIN (-7), at least for the straight up win. For the spread...honestly, I think Jets (+11.5) is the best bet.

Performance of the Week: Aaron Rodgers vs WAS, Jordan Cameron vs BAL

Surprise of the Week: Drew Brees will throw 2 TDs and 3 INTs