Week 5 Preview
Sorry for the delay, everyone, I’ve had a lot going on so I wasn’t able to get my picks out before Thursday night’s game. However, I did make a pick for the Bills and Browns, and I think that after you read it, it will be obvious that I did not cheat and change my pick after seeing the results (note: I will NEVER do that, for any reason, if I am backed up on my post again). I had another pretty solid weekend of selecting winners in Week 4, with nine correct games with the spread out of only 15 contests because of bye weeks. There weren’t really any surprises last Sunday, unless you count a surprise being Buffalo and Cleveland winning their respective home games against defending playoff teams. However, Week 5 is loaded with fantastic matchups , thanks to the fact that the Steelers, Vikings, Redskins, and Buccaneers are all on bye. These are four of the six or seven worst teams in the league, meaning that this week will consist of fourteen matchups, ten of which have playoff implications. Mane postseason candidates will square off with one another, which could lead to some tiebreaker advantages or lack thereof down the road. One thing is certain: you do NOT want to lose your Week 5 game. Let’s dive right into the picks, starting with Thursday’s surprisingly exciting game.
BUF (+4.5) vs CLE - Good news, bad news, and possibly more good news came out of the Thursday night matchup between the Bills and Browns. The good: THE CLEVELAND BROWNS ARE IN SOLE POSSESSION OF FIRST PLACE IN THE AFC NORTH AS OF THIS MOMENT. You read that right. After their third straight victory, the Browns are sporting a winning record at 3-2 and are currently leading the mediocre AFC North. Right on schedule for my “Cleveland in the playoffs” prediction. Now, to the bad: both starting quarterbacks were injured in this game, with EJ Manuel sidelined a few weeks with a sprained LCL, and the savior Brian Hoyer tearing his ACL, ending his season. NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! Why must this happen to Brian Hoyer? Just when the Browns and their fans had hope for this season, he goes down, leaving Cleveland with the dreadful Brandon Weeden at starting quarterback. Quick, Cleveland management, someone find Josh Freeman’s phone number! Now, to the possibly good news: Brandon Weeden, bad as he is, came into the game in the first quarter, meaning that he did play almost the entire game. Cleveland, obviously, won the game with a great all-around performance, with Brandon Weeden under center. He did look much more comfortable with Josh Gordon being back on the outside (Gordon was suspended while Weeden started the first two games of the season), so maybe a deep threat to spread the field was just what he needed. Now, in addition to a stout defense, the Browns have a nice young combination in Gordon and Cameron to spark the passing game. If Weeden plays like he did last night, he could win an impressive amount of games this year. However, I did think that this game would be closer, hence my pick of the Bills with the points. The Browns won much more convincingly, but the score I had originally predicted was...Buffalo 24, Cleveland 27
KC (-3) vs TEN - Now on to Sunday’s slate. While Tennessee has really impressed this season, especially on defense, the loss of Jake Locker will hurt them. I was one year too early on the Titans; last season I had predicted them to jump back to 8-8. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have started incredibly hot, and show no signs of slowing down. They are running the ball successfully and their defense has been spectacular. Alex Smith continues to be a perfect quarterback for Andy Reid’s west coast offense, and I think that the Kansas City Chiefs will keep on winning to get to 5-0. They should be able to eat Ryan Fitzpatrick alive. Here’s the one problem with the Chiefs: they should make the playoffs, but once they get there, how high is their ceiling? Are they at the same level as the Broncos and Patriots? We’ll see in time, especially in their two Denver games, but all they can do for right now is beat the teams on their schedule, and right now they are doing that effectively. Kansas City 26, Tennessee 14
BAL vs MIA (-3) - The Dolphins lost for the first time last Monday in New Orleans, but they were able to hold their own for most of the game. A few costly turnovers and penalties here and there combined with the Saints being an absolute powerhouse at home on Monday Night Football made that result slightly predictable. But Miami is a legitimate playoff contender, even though I don’t think they can challenge the Patriots yet in the East. Ryan Tannehill is the young quarterback that always seems to get looked over, and although I don’t think he will ever put up Brees-like numbers, I do think he can turn into a better version of Matt Schaub or Jay Cutler. The Ravens have really struggled so far, but I still have faith that they will turn things around, especially when they start getting into the easiest part of their schedule in a couple of weeks. But right now, the Dolphins are the better team. Baltimore 19, Miami 24
JAC vs STL (-11.5) - I can’t believe I’m doing this. The fact that Sam Bradford and the Rams could be double digit favorites over ANYBODY is astounding. The Jaguars, though are just unfathomably bad. They have scored 31 points the ENTIRE SEASON. In four games. 31 points. Two of those came on defense via safety, and plenty more of those came in garbage time against the Seahawks when they were already down 35. If you spot the Jags ten points, that means that the Rams, at home, with all their supposedly talented weapons, would only need to score 22 points. There’s a good chance at least seven of those could come on defense from a pick-six. I actually picked the Jags to cover last week against the Colts at home and they promptly lost by over thirty. Never again. And I’ll tell you what: next week when the Jaguars head to Denver as 26.5 point underdogs, I’m still going to take the Broncos. Jacksonville 9, St. Louis 27
NE vs CIN (+2) - When this line first opened up, the Bengals were favored by three; this tells you how much the public is on the Pats this Sunday. But I like the Bengals straight up here, for multiple reasons. Cincy just plays better at home for whatever reason, and they have enough talent offensively to bounce back from their dud against the Browns. The loss of Vince Wilfork for New England will come into play, as the Bengals might be able to establish the running game with the Law Firm and the exciting Giovani Bernard. Aqib Talib is a solid corner, but I think AJ Green will get loose for at least one huge play downfield. Here’s the point I feel most confident about: even though the Patriots presumably get Danny Amendola back, Tom Brady will be forced to make short, quick throws, and I think that the Cincy defensive line will not only put pressure on Brady, but get their arms up and knock down a bunch of those quick passes. The Bengals win a tight game, giving the Pats their first loss. New England 20, Cincinnati 23
SEA (-3) vs IND - This is probably the most exciting game of the weekend. The dominant Seahawks with Russell Wilson taking on the resilient Colts and Andrew Luck. I nearly changed my mind about this game a hundred times in the past two days. The Seahawks under Russell Wilson have really struggled on the road; we saw them barely escape both Carolina and Houston with wins. The Colts are clicking, are getting three points, have the most talented young signal caller in the league, and proved that they can win physical battles when they manhandled the 49ers in San Francisco. In the end, I think that this point spread is perfect; the ’Hawks are going win by exactly three. Seattle 24, Indianapolis 21
DET (+7.5) vs GB - A lot of people are on Green Bay here, and I don’t blame them. The Pack are at home, coming off a bye, and face a porous Detroit defense. They should be able to put up 35 points without blinking. My thinking, though, is that the Lions sport an explosive offense of their own, ignited by Reggie Bush’s knack for big plays. They have Calvin Johnson on the outside, a quarterback who is willing and able to sling the ball around the yard, and are getting over a touchdown. Do people really think that the Lions are not going to score? What about the garbage time touchdown potential staring you in the face? Green Bay, in my opinion, should not be this high of a favorite against a team they are a game and a half behind in the standings. The Packers win a shootout by one possession. Detroit 31, Green Bay 35 (Note: Just saw Megatron is questionable in this game? If he’s out or limited, give me GB)
NO vs CHI (+1.5) - The Saints continued their great start to the season by lighting up the Dolphins on Monday night to improve to 4-0. They have taken control of this division, and I think the only way they lose it is if the Panthers suddenly click and become elite. I do have them losing this game, but that is less about them, and more about them having to play the Bears in Chicago. The Bears defense will force three turnovers and make life hard for Drew Brees, while I think Matt Forte runs wild over a vastly improved Saints D. Martellus Bennett scores a touchdown, as does Alshon Jeffrey, and the Bears come up with a big time win over the Saints. New Orleans 24, Chicago 27
PHI vs NYG (-1.5) - I mean, this is getting embarrassing. Can they really go 0-5? Philadelphia 21, New York 24
CAR (-2.5) vs ARI - It’s always dangerous taken an unproven road favorite, especially against a pretty good home team in Arizona. However, I think the Panthers figured something out while clobbering the Giants in Week 3: TURN CAM LOOSE. They need to be more aggressive with Cam running and throwing, which will open up more opportunities for DeAngelo Williams as well. Carolina’s defense is very good, especially up front, and I don’t think the Cardinals will be able to expose the Panthers’ secondary. They’ve had a full two weeks to prepare for this one, and I think that Cam and company will get back to 2-2. Carolina 31, Arizona 16
DEN vs DAL (+9) - Peyton Manning and the Broncos have been nothing short of breathtaking. This offense is simply unstoppable, scoring 49, 41, 37, and 52 points in their first four games. Manning has been surgical, and has put up an unheard of 16 TDs and 0 INTs to start this season. There’s nothing more to say about them that has not already been said. The two best teams in the NFL right now are Denver and Seattle, and if that ends up being our Super Bowl matchup, I think everyone would be happy with that. BUT WAIT ONE SECOND. Who is the team that loses every game we think they should win? THE COWBOYS. And who is the team that wins every game we think they should lose, just to keep setting us up for future disappointment? THE COWBOYS. The Broncos have only played once on the road, and beat up on the lowly Giants. They haven’t had to deal with an offense like Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant. Ryan Clady, Denver’s left tackle, is out for the year, unable to block DeMarcus Ware off the edge. The Cowboys lost last week to the Chargers, a classic defeat against an inferior (on paper) opponent that makes everyone turn their noses up at them. It’s time for a rebound. Nine points is entirely too high, especially if Miles Austin can suit up. And you know what? Nine points is NINE POINTS TOO HIGH. That’s right, America! This is an UPSET ALERT FOR THE AGES. The Cowboys stun the world and take down the immortal Broncos, only to most likely lose Week 6. But we’ll worry about that next week. Denver 27, Dallas 34
HOU (+6) vs SF - Houston, we have a problem. Just when you think, “Holy crap, maybe the Texans are really good!”, they find some way to let you down. This time, it was bursting out to a 20-3 halftime lead over the Seahawks, only to be outscored 17-0 in the second half before losing the game in overtime. Matt Schaub, late in the fourth quarter, had an absolutely egregious interception that Richard Sherman returned for a touchdown. An off-balance, cross-field lob to a covered receiver? YOLO! I guess Matt Schaub was celebrating Halloween a little early and channeling his inner Mark Sanchez. Here’s the thing about the Texans, that I’ve stated before: they can’t win a Super Bowl with Matt Schaub. They can win one playoff game, then have to face either a Baltimore, a New England, or a Denver on the road in round two, and they would get beat down. That’s who they are. But they sure are competitive in the regular season, and that really impressive first half that nobody will remember against Seattle proves that. The 49ers are more talented than the Texans, and I think they win a tight battle off some other hideous mistake by Matt Schaub. Houston 19, San Francisco 20
SD (-5) vs OAK - One of these teams is talented. One of these teams is not. San Diego 28, Oakland 13
NYJ vs ATL (-10) - The Falcons, needless to say, have been incredibly underwhelming this season. But I think they will have their best game of the season on Monday. I would have taken the Jets and the points had they not gone to Tennessee on Sunday and completely wet the bed. In the two road games of his career, Geno Smith as thrown for three interceptions in the fourth quarter in a three point game at New England, and was sack-fumbled resulting in a Titans’ touchdown because he was trying to bring the ball behind is back (note: a move that directly resulted in me losing in my money fantasy league)...(note about note: I just want to clarify, that this was because I was facing the Titans defense, NOT starting Geno Smith, in case anyone thought I was an idiot). Geno Smith cannot play on the road yet, and I’m expecting he won’t be able to play under the bright lights of Monday night either. The Falcons are much better at home, and I think they will have some of the Saints’ Monday Night magic of their own. New York 13, Atlanta 27
Lock of the Week: Why do I even do these? I’ve had a few great weeks, but all my locks seem to be wrong. Anyway...KC (-3) is the easy way to go, so to spice things up a little...I really do think CIN (+2) will be a good bet.
Performance of the Week: Anyone from GB/DET, Matt Forte, Romo/Dez
Surprise of the Week: Dallas!, obviously. But another prediction, from off the board...Northwestern over Ohio State!
Happy football everybody, and get ready for Week 5!
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