Week 1 Preview
Well, I’ve done 32 team previews, my official predictions, and now it’s time to get started with the season. Today is one of the most glorious days of the year: Not only is it the Jewish New Year (Rosh Hashanah), but it is also, of course, the birth of a new year of football. The Ravens and Broncos kick off the season in tremendous fashion, a rematch of the most dramatic game of the playoffs last year (that Hail Mary from Flacco was the most memorable play of the postseason). We have several great matchups on the schedule to kick off the season properly, whether it be divisional battles right off the bat or other playoff rematches. If you are unfamiliar how this works, I’m going to make a prediction for every game this week, giving you who I think will win WITH THE POINT SPREAD, but also picking the final score so you know who I have winning the week straight up. Bold predictions will be marked with an UPSET ALERT (and I have plenty of those this week, must be the new season getting me all excited). I will be using the lines from Sportsbook, and I will post this column usually every Wednesday night or Thursday afternoon. I did struggle a little bit last year, so I’m hoping for a nice bounce back season in 2013. Like I said, I have A LOT of UPSET ALERTs to start the year off right, so without further ado, here are my picks for Week One. Note: an upset this season will be any team I feel very confident about winning the game while at least a 4.5 point underdog (+4.5). Welcome back, and may your team start out 1-0.
BAL (+7.5) vs DEN - There are so many storylines to this game that it is impossible to look at one angle or statistic and think, “this is what will give either team an edge”. The Ravens look very different on defense but will still be a handle to deal with, especially if the rookies step in and perform from the start. Peyton Manning looks as dangerous as ever, especially now with Wes Welker in the mix, the best slot receiver he’s ever had. However, the suspension of Von Miller really could expose a defense that isn’t deep, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Broncos get off to a sluggish start in the first half. Ravens with the spread, but Denver wins the game. Baltimore 20, Denver 24
NE vs BUF (+10.5) - The Patriots have gotten so much doubt and criticism this offseason, with analysts predicting that they might even lose the division. I think that they are a machine and will keep chugging along. If Jeff Tuel were starting this game for Buffalo, then the Pats would easily clear this double digit spread, but Buffalo announced that EJ Manuel will start Week One, and I am all in on this kid. The Bills won’t win, but the combination of Manuel protecting the ball and Spiller keeping the defense honest will be enough to keep it within ten. New England 31, Buffalo 21
TEN vs PIT (-7) - This will be a blowout. The Titans are awful, in my opinion. Their offense won’t be able to do anything against the demoralizing Steelers D, and Tennessee’s defense is so bad that Pittsburgh won’t have too much trouble scoring, even with a limited offense. Big win. By at least 20. Tennessee 3, Pittsburgh 23
ATL (+3) vs NO - This point spread isn’t lopsided enough to be called an upset, but I do believe that the Falcons will win this game in New Orleans. The Saints can score, but the Falcons can score, defend, and are much more well-balanced. I previously spoke about how I think Julio Jones will go off in this one, although now I hope he doesn’t because I’m playing against him in fantasy. But objectively, I think he goes for at least 150 and two scores. Give me the Falcons and the points. Atlanta 31, New Orleans 28.
TB (-4.5) vs NYJ - This will be laughable. I’m going to school up in the University at Buffalo, and I sincerely hope I get the Bills on CBS, and not the Jets (I say this because Buffalo does get blacked out sometimes, and even when I was at Binghamton I got Gang Green). Geno Smith will make his first career start, and I don’t think he gets out without throwing at least three picks (or we’ll just say three turnovers, in general). Revis and Co. will feast on him, and Doug Martin will probably put up more yards himself than the entire Jet offense. Tampa Bay 27, New York Jets 6
KC vs JAC (+4.5) - The Andy Reid-Alex Smith era has a lot of people excited in Kansas City, and many people are taking the Chiefs as a surprise Wild Card team this season. I think that this group has enormous potential, and maybe they will reach a playoff-caliber level this year, but not before an...UPSET ALERT!!!!! I don’t know what makes me like Jacksonville this week (or at any time, really), but I do think that they will beat the Chiefs. They will contain Jamaal Charles and cover Dwayne Bowe, making Alex Smith try to find some other to beat them with his new team. Blaine Gabbert will be competent, and I think the Jags chip in one defensive/special teams TD to help with the scoring. I’ll take the points, and the straight up win for the Jags. Jacksonville 20, Kansas City 16
CIN vs CHI (-3) - This is such an even game, that I guarantee you won’t know who I’m picking until the end. Look: I think that the winning team will have an average quarterback, a dynamic runner, and one stud receiver surrounded by a bunch of complementary guys. Their defense is fierce and will get after the quarterback, led by their dominant man on the defensive line. Which team am I talking about there? The difference in the game: Special Teams, and Soldier Field. Cincinnati 20, Chicago 24
MIA vs CLE (-1) - If you’ve read anything that I’ve written this preseason, you know where I’m going with this. Miami 17, Cleveland 23
SEA vs CAR (+4.5) - A substantial home underdog who ended last year on a roll with an emerging dynamic dual threat quarterback who happens to be on my fantasy team, taking on an overhyped substance-abusing team who struggles away from home with a questionable second year QB and all the pressure in the world? Give me those odds, and I’ll give you my second UPSET ALERT! Seattle 22, Carolina 24
MIN (+6) vs DET - I do think the Lions can take care of business at home and beat the regressing Vikes, but that six-point spread scares me a little. I mean, are the 4-12 Lions a full touchdown better than the 10-6 Vikings who have Adrian Peterson? I can’t bank on that. I’m taking the safe route here, and say that the Lions win close, because Minnesota winning straight up is more likely than Detroit winning big. I’m taking the points, but a Lions victory. Minnesota 21, Detroit 26
OAK (+10) vs IND - The toughest call of the week, by far, for me. I have no doubt that the Colts will win this game, but by double digits? It’s very reasonable to think so, but isn’t it also fair to say that the Colts might be rusty or just run the clock down in the fourth and eek out one of those not-that-close six or seven point wins? In my opinion, after doing this for a couple of years, I’ve discovered that you don’t take a double digit line unless you are 100% sure about it. Oakland 16, Indianapolis 23
ARI vs STL (-4.5) - The second hardest line of the week. I love the Rams, and I don’t love the Cardinals, and the game is in St. Louis, so picking the game straight up isn’t too hard. But in actuality, these two teams are fairly even, and to spot five points on the Rams, who struggle offensively, is an awful lot to ask. But I think that it is more likely they win by a touchdown then by a field goal, or, of course, simply lose the game. I’ve got confidence in the teams I like, and I’m putting my money where my mouth is. Arizona 14, St. Louis 20
GB (+5) vs SF - I’ve discussed this game as well in previous pieces. I feel that Aaron Rodgers will want revenge for the Niners embarrassing his team last postseason; I feel that Kaepernick will be easier to figure out now that there is tape on him (and if the Pack didn’t spend all offseason learning how to defend the read option, then they deserve to lose this game); and I think that the weapons on Green Bay will be able to outplay the San Fran secondary. The one area of concern for me: the Niners’ pass rush against a weak Packers’ offensive line. But if they can hold up, we’re looking at...UPSET ALERT NUMBER THREE. Green Bay 31, San Francisco 26
NYG vs DAL (-3.5) - This extra half a point is going to cause me to lose sleep leading up to this game. I will be rooting for the Giants. But I think that Dallas is better this year, and that Romo and Dez are going to light up the Big Blue secondary. The bright spot for the G-Men: they have never lost in Jerry Jones’ new stadium. But there’s a first time for everything. Since it’s 3.5 points, I’ll take Dallas by four. New York Giants 23, Dallas 27
PHI (+4.5) vs WAS - Robert Griffin the Third is great, but all this hype and drama around Washington has to backfire eventually (if you believe in karma), and last time I checked, he can’t play defense. The Eagles are the biggest mystery in the league, and I think that Chip Kelly is going to use this national stage to unleash his furious offense and make a statement. They will break 90 plays run in this game, and the Washington defense, especially in the first game of the season, will not know what hit them. The Philly pace will wear down the Washington defensemen, and the Eagles will soar to victory, ruining RGIII’s return. UPSET ALERT NUMBER FOUR, taking form on the first Monday Night Football game of the year. Philadelphia 34, Washington 24
HOU (-5.5) vs SD - I probably won’t even watch most of this game, as the Texans are uninspiring and the Chargers stink. The line is 5.5? Fine. Texans by six. Houston 27, San Diego 21.
So there are my picks for Week One of the 2013 NFL season, one that should be incredibly exciting. Out of 16 games, I have FOUR UPSET ALERTS going, which is three more than usual. If I hit two of them I’ll be happy, and I feel really good about that Eagles pick on Monday Night. Some final notes before I go...
Lock(s) of the Week: PIT (-7) and TB (-4.5)
Performance(s) of the Week: Julio Jones (ATL) and Dez Bryant (DAL)
Surprise of the Week: After one week, the St. Louis Rams will be the only team in the NFC West to start out 1-0.
Enjoy the week, and I’ll be back for Week Two!
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