2013 MARCH MADNESS PREDICTIONS

March Madness Bracket-palooza Predictions

How’s everyone doing? It’s been a while since I wrote anything but that’s going to change with the basketball playoffs around the corner, along with MLB Opening Day, and the NFL Draft. First and foremost, however, this is March, which means only one thing: the Madness has returned. I’ve never written any college basketball pieces, so before I get started, here’s a little background information about me. This tournament is my favorite sporting event ever. Including professional sports. This is the best. The wild excitement that takes place is unparalleled because of multiple games taking place at the same time, with many of them coming down to the final minutes. Is a top seed about to fall? Is your bracket about to be busted? Is a team going on a dreamlike Cinderella run through the tourney? This spectacle truly is madness, providing jaw-dropping twists and turns. Last year, we saw not one but TWO 15 seeds take down 2 seeds on the first day of the tournament, one of whom (Missouri) I had in the Final Four. Perhaps this is the year we finally see a 16 make history by defeating a 1? You never know. My favorite college program in any sport is the University of North Carolina Tar Heels basketball team. UNC has been my favorite team since I started following college basketball about seven years ago (I’m only 20, so it’s been a pretty big chunk of my life). This, of course, means that I have an eternal hatred for Duke, something that I have no problem sharing. They are in my top five most hated sports teams in the world, and most likely will always be. And since this is my bracket, I don’t have to care about any biases I have, because no upset is inconceivable (remember Lehigh, Duke fans?). While I was just as shocked as anyone when the Blue Devils fell to a 15 last year, I was delighted beyond belief. I was heartbroken last year when injuries to Kendall Marshall and John Henson helped derail UNC’s tournament run last year, because I truly believe that we had enough talent to win the championship last year, just like in 2009. I also hitch my wagon to some mid-ranked teams every year that I think can make a run, which really backfired on me last year (looking at you, Wichita State). This year the team I’ve been riding for a couple of months has been St. Louis, and I’m actually kind of annoyed that they rose all the way to a 4 seed, because now they aren’t really under the radar anymore. There are always things to watch out for in your brackets, most notably those pesky 12 seeds, and the fact that in the last three years, at least three double digit seeds have reached the Sweet 16. So, without further ado, here’s all my thoughts, upsets, and predictions for the 2013 edition of March Madness. Good luck to all of you with your brackets, and godspeed.

Midwest Region

This is a gauntlet. There’s no other way to put it. And ironically, this is the region I feel the most confident about. Which probably means I’m going to bomb it. It’s headed by number one overall seed Louisville, and it has talent everywhere you look. The 10 seed is Cincinnati (Sweet 16 last year), the 11 could be Middle Tennessee (28 wins), and the 12 is Oregon (Pac 12 tourney champs). A decent amount of grief was given over the fact that Duke was a number two seed instead of obtaining a top spot. But I don’t think Blue Devils fans should be too worried, it’s not like they’ll lose to a 15 in the first ro---oh, wait. Well, at least it can’t happen twice in a row, right? And there’s my sleeper, St. Louis! Love them. Here are my first round winners: LOU, CSU, OSU, SLU, 11 seed (no matter who wins the play-in), MSU, CIN, DUKE. A lot of people are on Oregon as a 12 but I’ll take Oklahoma State’s talent. The round of 32 winners: LOU, SLU, MSU, DUKE. Thought about taking Cincy over Duke here, but I don’t think they’ll be able to score enough. So in the Sweet 16 I’ve got seeds 1-4, which isn’t very exciting. Spoiler alert: this is the only region where this happens. Here’s where it gets interesting: Saint Louis over Louisville, and Michigan State over Duke. Two upsets. That’s right. So in the Elite 8 it’s 4 Saint Louis against 3 Michigan State...and I’ve got the Spartans. As much as I love Saint Louis, and I do hope they get to the Final Four, I can’t go against Tom Izzo and an experienced MSU team. Michigan State to the Final Four, as a three seed.

West Region

When I go through the bracket, I start at the top left and then go down, right, and up. So that’s the order I’m using here, coming down to the bottom left portion to cover the West region. The West, always, has provided some unbelievable shockers, and this year should follow suit. Gonzaga was awarded the final one seed by only losing two games during the season, and I think it is warranted. The dangerous team here is Ohio State from the 2 slot, a defending Final Four participant, while Wisconsin from the 5 spot must not be overlooked. I think the first round out West will be full of surprises. My winners: Zags, Wichita St., WIS, 13 seed, Belmont, NMU, ISU, OSU. And no, I’m not crazy. I need to talk about this 8-9 matchup that should be first to 50 points wins. Last year I picked Wichita St. to make the Final Four as a 5 seed. Bold, and admittedly stupid, looking back on it. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. But I have to pick them. I’ve been anti-PITT all year, and if I pick against WSU this year and they win, I’ll be really pissed. I’d rather go down with the ship. So Wichita St., don’t let me down! I almost picked Ole Miss to beat Wisconsin. Almost. But I won’t rely on the hotheaded Marshall Henderson, no matter how lethal he can be. Give me the Badgers. Big upset here: whoever wins the play-in game will beat Kansas State. Here’s how I see it: at least one of the play-in game winners will win their first game, so I’m doubling down. Also, a 13 has beaten a 4 for five years and counting. I’m grabbing the opportunity. I think that Wisconsin would beat K-State anyway in the next round, so this is a low-risk, high-reward move. But wait! There’s more! Belmont beats Arizona! I don’t like Arizona, and Belmont excels at 3’s which is what the Wildcats hate defending. I’ll take that advantage. And finally, Iowa State beats Notre Dame. The Irish suck in the tourney, and the Cyclones are deadly with 3’s. I think, like Belmont, Iowa State will come into the tournament pumped up and drain shots. A lot of upsets here. Second round: I’ve got the Zags, Wisconsin, Belmont, and Ohio State. All straightforward except for Belmont, who I’ve got advancing to the Sweet 16 over New Mexico. I don’t like the Mountain West. And I need to have a double digit seed in the Sweet 16. So here we are. So that’s the 1, 5, 11, and 2 seeds; and the top teams make it out alive. Gonzaga and Ohio State in the Elite 8, with Gonzaga advancing to the Final Four. The Buckeyes are the popular pick here, and I agree, but I think that the Zags will be able to pull off the “upset” and defy the doubters to make the Final Four, hooking up with Michigan State.

East Region

The East is particularly overwhelming or underwhelming, but it is tough to navigate through. There are two mammoth seeds that are head and shoulders above the rest, in Indiana and Miami. I’ve been projecting the Hoosiers to be my eventual National Champion, but they have not looked the same as they have in the beginning of the season. Personally, I think they can be pushed around and “out-athleted” by a team who can contain the animal that is Oladipo. However, they are still enormously talented, as are the Canes coming out of Miami. And, of course, you have to keep an eye on Butler in that six hole. And get ready, readers, I have a big upset (or two!) coming up here if you want to try to figure out where it is. Here are my winners for round one: IND, NC State, CAL, SYR, BUT, DAV, COL, MIA. A couple of these games made me lose sleep lat night. It took a while for me to convince myself that California can beat UNLV, but now I’m all in. It’s a classic choice: a 12 seed virtually playing at home, against an overrated Mountain West team that beat them earlier in the season. I’m down on the Orange, which isn’t a great feeling as a New Yorker, but I see them advancing. Butler and VCU have established themselves as two teams that you cannot under any circumstances pick against in round one. Meanwhile, DOWN GOES MARQUETTE! My most lopsided upset pick in the tournament involves a 14 defeating a 3. Davidson has talent and leads the nation in free throw percentage, which means they can ice a game as well as light up the scoreboard from the outside. Marquette is pretty good but isn’t great in any aspect of the game, and even though I like them a little bit, I still predict Davidson dropping the hammer on the Golden Eagles. This next game is one that I’m still considering changing, even though I’ve done so multiple times already, but I’m going with Colorado over Illinois. Anytime a team has a go-to scorer like Brandon Paul on the floor it is dangerous to pick against them because you never know when someone will get hot, but I just have a nasty feeling about this one. Colorado gets the nod, with Miami moving on as well. My second round winners: IND, CAL, BUT, MIA. One notable shocker here: Cal over the Cuse! I’m not a believer in Syracuse during the tournament; Boeheim is a top coach, but one title in over thirty years? Really? Don’t see it. There’s my 12 seed in the Sweet 16. In the Elite 8, I have the Hoosiers against the Hurricanes. Another 1-2 Elite 8, which I don’t like, but this would be a titanic matchup. And you know what? I’ve got Miami. They can play big; they can knock down outside shots; they have Shane Larkin, who is an absolutely dynamic point guard who isn’t afraid of the moment, a quality that cannot be overlooked. Canes to the Final Four.

South Region

Finally, the South. A lot of quality teams here, including top seeds that have a history of being upset in the tournament. I’m getting right to it. First round winners: KU, UNC, VCU, MICH, UCLA, FLA, SDST, GEO. I know. Chalk. Makes me cringe. However, I don’t see the first round as the time for upsets in this region. The Wolverines have to be put on notice, especially when they lost to a 13 just last year. The most intriguing first round matchup to me is UCLA against Minnesota in the 6-11 game. The Bruins just lost their second leading scorer, and they struggle where the Golden Gophers excel: rebounding. It’s such an obvious upset pick to take Minnesota that I think UCLA is now the upset pick. No one believes in them, and I think the other members of this team will step up and collectively put their talents together to take down Minnesota. I don’t know why I feel this way, but I just think that a team that is supposed to be upset stands up and wins at least one game. Next round: UNC, VCU, UCLA, GEO. And there are the upsets. Like I said, I’m a Carolina fan. And I think they will take out Kansas in the second round. The small UNC lineup will take Jeff Withey away from the rim, while Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston will rain down threes in the earliest loss for a one seed. I see VCU taking out Michigan. The havoc will get to Trey Burke, who will try to be a hero and jack up shots. But they won’t fall. UCLA will go on to beat Florida as well, who were just dreadful in close games this year. I don’t trust them. Meanwhile, UCLA keeps their magic going at least one more time. This is another one of those double down guesses, because I think that either UCLA or CAL, if not both, will win two games. So I’m putting both of them through to hedge my bets. Of course, they can also both lose in the first round. That’s March Madness for you. The Sweet 16 winners: UNC, GEO. Go Tar Heels! They beat VCU and get to the Elite 8 for the second year in a row on a surprise run from the 8 seed. Meanwhile, Georgetown beats UCLA and advances to the quarterfinals as well. And finally...Georgetown beats Carolina. Excuse me while I go get a tissue to wipe away the tears that are forming. I have the Hoyas, led by Otto Porter, as my Final Four team. I am incredibly terrified by this. I have had great pleasure watching G’town choke time and again in recent memory, but I just don’t see who will beat them because I don’t trust any other team in that part of the region. Deep down, I know that this faith is going to screw me over. I had Mizzou in the Final Four last year, and I have a horrible feeling that the Hoyas are going to be the next two seed with an early loss to screw me over. But that’s what I’ve got.

Final Four

My Final Four is Michigan State vs Gonzaga, and Georgetown vs Miami. And my remaining decisions weren’t too hard to make. There are two teams that I feel are simply superior to their opponents. The winners of the semifinals and the two teams that I think will meet in the National Championship Game, are Michigan State, and Miami. This sets up a fantastic title matchup of an experienced tournament team going up against the new kids who are taking over the world by storm. Both of these groups are airtight defensively, but only one of these teams have an offense dynamic enough to put consistent points on the board, and this team is my national champion. So...can I get a drumroll please?........the winner of the 2013 March Madness Tournament will be the Miami Hurricanes, the two seed out of the East region!!!!!!!!! It’s kind of unsettling to pick a champion that doesn’t have any tournament experience whatsoever, but this team is ready for the spotlight, and I think they will seize the moment. The college basketball world better prepare for a Hurricane. Because they are coming.

So there you have it, folks: the Miami Hurricanes will win the National Championship. Here’s a recap of my bracket, as well as some news and notes to keep in mind when picking your bracket.

• My Final Four is made up of a 1 seed, two 2s, and a 3.
• I think a one seed will lose in the Rd of 32, the Sweet 16, the Elite 8, and the Final 4.
• Upset Alert! I have 9 first rd upsets, the biggest of which is a 14 over a 3 (Davidson).
• I have three 10s, two 11s, a 13, and only one 12 seed winning in the first round.
• Two double digit seeds will make the Sweet 16 (Belmont, California).
• Sleeper team (Seeds 1-4): Saint Louis.
• Sleeper team (Seeds 5-16): UNC (also, watch out for Iowa State).
• Watch out for the winners of the play-in games; odds are at least one will win.
• Only once in 16 years have all four 2 seeds reach the Sweet 16 (Gulp. I have that.)
• Five year streak of a 4 seed going down. I’ve got K-State. Watch out for Michigan.
• Watch out for double digit seeds in Sweet 16. I’ve got two (Cal, Belmont).
• LOOK OUT FOR THE 12 SEEDS. I’ve got one winning; probably too little.
• Not likely for another 15 to win. But then again, Duke is a 2...
• Mountain West teams suck in tourney historically (15-33).
• High scoring teams make upsets, but physical teams make it to the end.

That’s all I’ve got for you, good luck everyone, and happy March!