EPIC SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS EXTRAVAGANZA

EPIC SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS EXTRAVAGANZA!!!!!!!!

The moment of truth is here. I’ve been making predictions for the 2012 NFL season since last August, and after all the work, passion, excitement, and heartbreak, we have finally arrived at the final game. The Super Bowl is going to be played between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers, coached by John and Jim Harbaugh, respectively. This piece is going to have everything: Statistical predictions, prop bets, various made up betting lines, a RANT ALERT in the Colin Kaepernick paragraph, and, of course, my final score and champion. I’m even going to throw in my predictions for tonight’s award ceremony and pick the MVP, rookie of the year, and more. I’ll recap every aspect of the Super Bowl in a column hopefully on Monday, and go over the entire season next week in my NFL season review post, so this will be the final time I try to look into the future for this football season. I’m going to announce the winner first, then explore the different aspects of this game. So for the final time, can I get a drumroll please.......

BAL vs SF (-3.5) - My final score is Baltimore 21, San Francisco 19.

Before the season started, I picked the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl. While I did waver on that pick as the season progressed, once they won that epic game in Denver, I jumped right back on them. I always thought that if they had to go up to New England for the AFC Championship, the Ravens would win that game. I picked that before the season, and they stayed strong and did what not many people thought was possible. This team has a fire lit under it, from the retirement of Ray Lewis to the determination of Joe Flacco. They are a team of destiny this year. Let’s get specific.

I’ll start with the quarterbacks. Joe Flacco is a quarterback unlike any other. Many people doubt whether he is elite, but that depends on how you define the word. In this aerial attack, fantasy football world we live in, most people think that the “elite” quarterbacks are the ones who will throw for 5,000 yards, or 40 touchdowns. I don’t buy it. The object of the game is to win, and Flacco has more wins, regular season and playoffs combined, in his first five seasons than any other QB in NFL history. He is the only quarterback to win a playoff game in his first five seasons, and he tops the list of most career road playoff wins already, tied with Eli. He is named “Joe Cool”, because he always has poise, and he rises to the occasion when it matters most. He’ll never blow you away with stats, but if he wins this game then he’ll have the same number of rings as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Joe Namath, Steve Young, and others. He has the strongest arm in the league in an offense that likes to throw deep. I’m not calling him the best QB in the league, but if you like the 49ers in this game, it shouldn’t be because you don’t think Joe Flacco can win this game.

Colin Kaepernick has taken over the sports world in the last two months. I was skeptical of the move to start him over Alex Smith, but it has obviously paid off. But I still don’t like him. He walked into the easiest situation ever: a great coach, stifling defense, and powerful running attack and offensive line. His claim to fame was that crazy game against Green Bay when the Packers defense looked like a high school team. He’s lethal when running, which means the Ravens have to stay outside and make him hand off to Frank Gore. I think he’s due for some bad karma. Reports are that Kaepernick is trying to trademark his touchdown dance when he kisses his bicep as “Kaepernicking”. What an arrogant son of a bitch. He’s made NINE career starts in this league. He has not won anything yet, and is only here because the rest of his team is great and because Atlanta choked like dogs, as usual. Who does he think he is that he can strut around like he owns the place and trademark a move? DOES HE THINK HE’S THE FIRST AND ONLY PERSON TO KISS HIS BICEP??!? The Ravens better pound him. Knock him on the ground every single time he goes outside, stand over him, and kiss their biceps right on top of him. Give him helmet to helmet hits. I don’t care. Sacrifice the 15 yards to knock him on his ass and rough him up. People killed LeBron for acting like royalty before he won his championship; why is no one getting in Kaepernick’s face for being this obnoxiously self-entitled? On the other side of the ball is Ray Lewis, someone who would give everything for this game, but he’s a soldier and would never dream of exploiting the sport like that. This, in my opinion, is incredibly selfish, saying that Colin wants to maximize profit on his own ability and not team success, which shows where his head is at. The football gods should not want this guy to just walk into a starting lineup and win a Super Bowl. It’s not right for the integrity of the sport. Bernard Karmell Pollard, I’m looking at you. Sit this guy down. What a punk.

Backs and Receivers: Advantage Baltimore. The Ravens just swallowed up the Patriots’ weapons in New England; do you really think they’ll be scared of the likes of Michael Crabtree and company? Meanwhile, the combination of Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce has been phenomenal this postseason; this Pierce kid is a bulldozer, and in my opinion could be a starter right now. It will be up to them to pound the rock against this brutal 49ers front seven and keep the defense honest. The Ravens receivers are better, too; Anquan Boldin is probably the toughest player in the league (at the very least, toughest WR), and can match up with the physicality of the secondary. Torrey Smith is a huge weapon deep; I think they get at least one huge play downfield. I think that the X factor for the entire game is Frank Gore. In the pistol, the Ravens have to contain Kaepernick, which means Gore will be relied on to rush the inside. If he breaks loose, San Francisco will run to a victory, but if he can be bottled up, it’ll make Kaepernick have to throw the ball to win.

Defense: The 49ers defense is undoubtedly more complete; they are younger, faster, and stronger. However, in the last few games they have been getting torched by the deep ball. Matt Ryan had 400 yards against them last game. And we all know what the Ravens like to do on offense...hello, Torrey Smith. The front seven is critical, as always; if they let Ray Rice run on them from the start, then they will get exposed. But if they stuff the run, and get pressure on Flacco, then this group is tough to stop. The Ravens defense has not been as solid all season long, but this is a new team. They have proven veterans on this side of the ball in Lewis, Reed, Suggs, and Ngata, among others. They had two weeks to prepare for this pistol read option attack, so let’s hope they have it figured out by now. This group is also playing with tremendous pride and heart, which cannot be measured on paper; I believe that one’s will to win has a huge impact on D. Two quick notes on the Baltimore defense: first, I don’t know exactly what’s going on with Ray Lewis and this deer antler spray stuff, so I’m not going to address it, but no matter what happens, he’s a top 5 linebacker to ever play in the NFL and probably the greatest athlete leader that I have ever seen. Congratulations on an amazing career, Ray. Second...Bernard Karmell Pollard is rapidly becoming my favorite player in the NFL. He has now injured Brady, Welker, Gronk, and Ridley in four separate seasons with three different teams. It’s the most incredible, inexplicable trend ever. I hope he gets a ring. Here’s to you, Bernard Karmell Pollard...the Patriot Assassin.

Coaches: I’ve put this off long enough. It’s time to address the HarBowl. The fact that two brothers can coach in any Super Bowl is awesome. It’s that much better when the get to square off against each other. No team has an advantage here. John is more calm and poised, but Jim is fiery and passionate. Good traits all around for different reasons. This matchup has been documented on ESPN enough. I’ll just say mazel tov to the Harbaugh family for such an amazing accomplishment.

Timeline of the Game: This is going to be a quick synopsis of how I think the game will go. It’ll be low-scoring; a slugfest, not a shootout. I don’t think either team gets past ten points in the first quarter. At some point in the game, Flacco will hit Torrey Smith for a 50+ yard pass, whether it goes for a TD or not. With the Ravens up 14-13, Flacco will hit Dennis Pitta for a 10-ish yard touchdown in the late 3rd/early 4th quarter. Kaepernick will run for a score to make it 21-19, but the 2-pt conversion will fail. At some point in the game David Akers misses a field goal, maybe even in the last few seconds to lose the game. Kaepernick will not throw for a single touchdown, but will throw an interception to Ed Reed. Baltimore’s first touchdown will be a run from inside the five by either Pierce or Vonta Leach. Here are some specific player predictions:

QB

Flacco: 21-32, 289 yds, 2 TD, o INT, MVP

Kaepernick: 19-35, 241 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT; 6 rush, 22 yds, TD

RB

Rice: 21 rush, 83 yds; 3 rec, 31 yds

Pierce: 11 rush, 51 yds, TD

Gore: 20 rush, 79 yds, TD; 4 rec, 39 yds

WR

Boldin: 7 rec, 81 yds, TD

Smith: 5 rec, 91 yds (long of 55)

Crabtree: 8 rec, 88 yds

Moss: 2 rec, 23 yds

TE

Pitta: 4 rec, 55 yds, TD

Davis: 4 rec, 52 yds

DEF

Lewis: 9 tack, 1 TFL

Reed: 4 tack, 1 INT

Pollard: 5 tack, 1 FF

K

Tucker: 0/0 FG, 3/3 XP

Akers: 2/3 FG, 1/1 XP, long 41, miss 44

Prop Bets

OVER/UNDER Jersey # of First TD (27.5): UNDER. First TD goes to Gore (21), or Rice instead of Pierce/Leach.

OVER/UNDER Flacco long completion (41.5): OVER. 55 to Torrey Smith.

OVER/UNDER .5 players injured by Bernard Pollard: OVER. (out at least one play).

OVER/UNDER 47.5 total points scored: UNDER. 21+19=40

Super Bowl MVP: Joe Flacco (5/2)

Exact Points scored by the 49ers: 19 (40/1)

OVER/UNDER 2:15 Nat’l Anthem by Alicia Keys. UNDER (1:59)

OVER/UNDER 1.5 fantasies of Beyonce during halftime: Way OVER. I love her.

Color Gatorade poured on winning coach: ORANGE. (3/1)

OVER/UNDER 3 God mentions by Ray Lewis in interview: OVER. Easy.

OVER/UNDER 1.5 helmet to helmet hits called: OVER. Two really tough teams.

OVER/UNDER largest lead 14: UNDER. Tight, physical game whole way through.

OVER/UNDER 2.5 players attempt a pass: UNDER. No Alex Smith in this one.

Will Beyonce’s hair be straight or crimped at beginning of show: CRIMPED.

OVER/UNDER 2.5 HarBowl references during game. OVER. Once in a lifetime event.

NFL Awards

Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano, IND. Chuckstong.

Offensive Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, QB, DEN

Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt, DL, HOU

Offensive Rookie of the Year: RGIII, QB, WAS (I think Luck SHOULD win, but won’t)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Luke Keuchly, LB, CAR

Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, DEN

MVP: Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN. I think he should beat Peyton. Manning had a solid year in a decent year for QBs. Peterson had one of the greatest seasons for a RB in the history of the NFL less than a year after a blown out knee. The Vikings were 3-13 last year, had no passing game, and a mediocre defense, and AD led them to the playoffs. Peyton went 13-3 against primarily easy teams. I hope Peterson wins. And Peyton Manning is my favorite player.

So, there’s everything I got for you. I think that this will be a low-scoring game, where the first half will be more of a feeling-out process to try to make out the opponent’s game plan. Whichever team can establish the running attack will win the game. Both teams have potentially explosive offenses but dynamic, intelligent defenses as well. I think that the Baltimore Ravens, my preseason Super Bowl champion, will control the 49ers rushing game and make Colin Kaepernick beat them. I don’t think he’s capable. This is Joe Flacco’s moment. He called himself elite (like Eli last year); he’s playing for a contract; he’s got “Nobody Believes in Me” fuel; and he’s a proven winner. This is the final game of Ray Lewis’s career, and there’s no way the Ravens make him go out with a loss. I’m ready for a physical bloodbath. The HarBowl is going to be epic. Beyonce’s halftime show is going to be incredible. I thought about live-tweeting it but I don’t want to be distracted. Not to get side-tracked, but for those who don’t know me, Beyonce is my celebrity crush, so it’s a big deal for me. Getting back to the game, I think Baltimore will do everything in their power to swallow up Kaepernick’s running ability, and hopefully they’ll be in his face all night long. That’s all from me; the only thing left now is the game. Hopefully you’ll be watching with friends and loved ones, with some great food to go with it. I’m getting ready to watch with my family with a whole lot of wings. So here we go. The stage is set in the Superdome. Which team will rise up and be crowned Super Bowl Champions? UPSET SPECIAL. Baltimore 21, San Francisco 19. Good luck to everyone, whichever team you’re rooting for. And LET’S GO RAVENS.