2013 NFL Week 6 Preview

Week 6 Preview

Week 5 looked like it was going to be a fantastic weekend of football, and it did not disappoint. The Saints and Chiefs kept rolling with impressive road wins, Indianapolis had a HUGE win over a great Seattle team, and I correctly predicted Cincinnati to come up with a major upset of the Patriots (they even broke Brady’s streak of 52 games with a touchdown pass!). Two games that really stood out to me, though, were the Monday Night game in which the Jets shocked the Falcons, and, of course, the Cowboys coming oh so close. I’ll start quickly by congratulating Geno Smith and the Jets on an incredibly hard-fought win. I watched this whole game, and I really didn’t think that Gang Green stood a chance--how could Atlanta lose twice in a row at home, right? But Geno had, unquestionably, his best game as a pro, throwing three touchdowns, not turning the ball over at all, and, even after the Falcons retook the lead with under two minutes to go, took his team down the field to set up the game-winning field goal. Their defense is legitimate, and it looks like their recent first round draft picks of Quentin Coples, Sheldon Richardson, and Muhammad Wilkerson are quietly forming a beast of a defensive line. I’ll talk more about them later, because I have to mention the Falcons here quickly. Yes, I picked them to make the Super Bowl, but to call them a disappointment would be an understatement. Matt Ryan never loses at home, and even after a 1-2 start, they have now lost back-t0-back primetime games in Atlanta to New England and the Jets. They now sit at 1-4, going into a bye week, with injuries all over the field. Steven Jackson has been out, Roddy White is a shell of himself, and if the reports coming out are true, then Julio Jones could be done for the year. If that happens, just put the Falcons down for a top ten pick in the draft, just one year after barely missing out on the Super Bowl. Now, to the heartbreak of the weekend...Tony Romo and the Cowboys. I picked Dallas to upset the Broncos (and at the very least cover their nine-point spread, which they did). They obviously lost, but I still think that pick was one of the best I’ve ever had. Romo went toe to toe with Peyton Manning, and in my opinion, outplayed him straight up. He threw for 500 yards and five touchdowns, responding to every score that Denver put on the board. With two and a half minutes left, the Cowboys got the ball back with the score tied at 48 (what?!?!?), all three timeouts and the two minute warning at their disposal. So what happens? What HAS TO HAPPEN after this wild ride? Interception. After running out the clock, Peyton and the Broncos improve to 5-0, winning the game 51-48. I really thought Dallas was going to take this one and shock the world. On Monday, Romo, as usual, got a world of criticism for throwing that pick, because it’s not how many you throw, it’s when you throw them; and after Tony’s monster, record-setting afternoon, he faltered when the game was right in the balance. I cannot defend throwing the interception, but I don’t understand how everyone on TV simply focuses on that one play while disregarding the previous 58 minutes of action. They were in that game, with 48 points on the board, solely because of Romo’s brilliance! Why not get on the defense for failing to make a single stop down the stretch after Dallas had retaken the lead? This criticism was remarkably unfair, although it cannot be denied that his interception did, directly, play a huge role in the outcome of the game. Sunday’s shootout between Denver and Dallas will be one of the three best games we’ll see all regular season, and it’s a shame that all everyone will remember it by is Romo’s single miscue. Nice try, Big D, but now you’re just 2-3. Now on to Week 6, which is infinitely less exciting than last week.

NYG vs CHI (-8) - This is the last straw for the New York Football Giants. It’s just amazing that a team so accomplished could be right there at the bottom of power rankings around the country. They are already 0-5, giving up over 30 points per game and committing at least three to four turnovers every week. Now they are being asked to travel to Chicago on a short week. I’ll take the OVER on 3.5 NYG turnovers, and I think the Bears roll in this one. It kills me to say that. New York 14, Chicago 31

OAK (+9) vs KC - The Chiefs are 5-0, although they haven’t played a quality opponent yet, a trend which will continue on Sunday when they host the Raiders. However, Oakland was really good in the-game-that-no-one-including-me-on-the-East-Coast-saw against the Chargers! Terrelle Pryor has some legit raw talent, and although I’m not predicting an upset, I think he can make enough plays to keep it within nine. It’s not like the Chiefs are blowing too many teams out. Oakland 17, Kansas City 24

PHI (-1.5) vs TB - Nick Foles looked pretty good last week, albeit against the Giants. Mike Glennon did not look good last time we saw him. The pace wins this game. The matchup to watch: DeSean Jackson vs Revis. Philadelphia 27, Tampa Bay 16

GB vs BAL (+3) - Every time we count the Ravens out, they miraculously pull a win out of nowhere to stay relevant and remind the world that they are still a team to be reckoned with. The Packers looked less than impressive against the Lions last week, and now Clay Matthews is out for a month. Baltimore’s defense has been very underrated this season, as Suggs and Dumervil have really cranked up the pass rush. Give me the Ravens as home underdogs against a beatable Packers team, outright! Green Bay 20, Baltimore 24

DET vs CLE (+3) - Hmmm...another AFC North team that I’m rooting for this season getting three points at home against an NFC North team who really struggled to score last week. Even if Megatron comes back, the Browns have a top-notch defense (I’ve been telling you that for three months!), and if Brandon Weeden can do ANYTHING AT ALL TO NOT BE BRANDON WEEDEN, then I believe the Browns can improve to 4-2, before they hit the nasty part of their schedule. Detroit 20, Cleveland 24

CIN vs BUF (+7.5) - The Bengals looked fantastic defensively last week, absolutely shutting down the Patriots, and holding them without a touchdown! Really impressive stuff right there. But here’s the thing: they stink on the road, and weird things happen in Buffalo. They had the Pats dead to rights before losing, they knocked off Carolina on the final play of the game, and they picked off Joe Flacco five times a couple of weeks ago. The Bengals still struggle to score with Andy Dalton, but here’s the biggest thing going for the Bills: we saw Brian Hoyer come in out of nowhere and win not one but TWO games. He’s out for the season, and I believe this week that magic will be transferred to...Thad Lewis! Lewis’s athletic ability will help him avoid a suffocating defensive line, and he will lead the Bills to victory! UPSET ALERT IN WESTERN NEW YORK! Note: this has nothing to do that I go to school here. Cincinnati 16, Buffalo 20

CAR (+2.5) vs MIN - Look, I know the Panthers were surprisingly destroyed by Arizona and their suffocating defense. For some reason the Cardinals are just really good at home, and a performance like that from Cam Newton and the offensive line coming off a bye week is inexcusable. But I still think they can bounce back, because the Vikings aren’t very scary, and I’d rather ride it out with Cam then put my faith in Matt Cassel or Christian Ponder against Carolina’s front seven. Carolina 27, Minnesota 20

STL vs HOU (-7.5) - If you asked me whether I would take the over or under on .5 interceptions by Matt Schaub returned for a touchdown, I’d genuinely have to sit and think about it for a little bit. That’s how bad he is. However, the Rams are dreadful, even if they did just beat the Jags by two touchdowns. In every road game with Sam Bradford this year, the Rams have fallen behind by multiple scores. As bad as Houston has looked, they are really good at home and they will be able to move the ball on St. Louis. This line is way too low because of the circus surrounding Schaub recently, but I think that the Texans are due for a big bounce back game. St. Louis 13, Houston 34

PIT vs NYJ (-2.5) - Geno! Smith was great on Monday night under the bright lights, which is especially impressive considering it has been historically tough to win in Atlanta. The Jets find themselves at 3-2, and have a home game against the winless Steelers before another home game versus their rival Patriots, who really struggled last week. Don’t look now, but after seven weeks, Gang Green could be 5-2 and in first place in the East! But that’s way down the road. For now, I say the better team in New York (how is that possible?) will take care of business in a sloppy game, and the key will be their young, ferocious defensive line mauling what’s left of the Steelers’ front. Pittsburgh 16, New York 22

TEN (+13.5) vs SEA - Yes, Seattle lost last week but they are still a dangerous team, and they still dominate people at home. And even though Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting, he played decent enough against the very good Chiefs defense to make me think that two touchdowns is too big of a line for this one. I mean, Tennessee’s defense has been great so far this year! So I’ll close my eyes and pick for the Titans to cover in Seattle, although the Seahawks should still win by about ten. Tennessee 17, Seattle 27

JAC vs DEN (-28) - Yes, I’m using the -28 line no matter where it goes. And I’m still taking the Broncos. This is hysterical. The Jaguars are just atrocious, which everyone and their mother knows. But look at this excerpt from ESPN’s power rankings, describing Denver’s offense in a nutshell: “The Broncos scored 51 points. Peyton Manning completed 78.6 percent of 42 attempts for 414 yards and four touchdowns Sunday. Broncos receivers amassed 205 yards after catches. None of those are season highs”. WHAT??? You’ve probably seen the twitter war between these two programs, which initiated by Denver’s PR staff not-so-subtly mentioning that the Broncos just put up 51 points against Dallas, which is the same amount of points that Jacksonville has scored ALL SEASON. Peyton is putting up 46 a game this season...unless he just sits the entire second half, how is it that they wouldn’t put up 50 again? And how many points is it fair to spot the Jags? 10? 13? Even if you give them 20, the Broncos would only need 48 to cover...and like I said, they are AVERAGING 46. Just close your eyes, enjoy the mediocrity, and admire the greatness. Jacksonville 13, Denver 47

ARI (+12) vs SF - This line is way too high; the NFC West battles are usually very close, and the Cardinals have a really quality defense, especially now that Daryl Washington has returned from suspension. I know the 49ers just crushed Houston on national television, but Kaepernick was underwhelming, and they really didn’t need to do anything offensively to have a huge lead besides run the ball. I’m taking the points here. Arizona 20, San Francisco 28

NO vs NE (-1) - I feel bad, because I want to acknowledge how great the Saints have been, but I end up picking against them all the time. I know the Pats lost last week, but how is New England only favored by one at home, on a Sunday late afternoon game? I think they’ll be out to prove a point to all these critics, and they will have their first F U game of the season. But seriously, I know the Saints have been phenomenal. Best team in the NFC right now as long as Brees and Graham keep hooking up and their defense keeps getting mass pressure. New Orleans 24, New England 27

WAS (+6.5) vs DAL - The Cowboys really blew a golden opportunity on Sunday; taking down the Broncos really would have put the league on notice. They should be able to take care of business on Sunday Night, but you know how Dallas is; as soon as people think they are impressive, they underwhelm. Washington should be able to move the ball, especially since they have had two weeks to prepare for this game. I’ll take the Cowboys in a close game, but Washington covers. Washington 24, Dallas 27

IND (-2) vs SD - I’m all in on the Colts, at least at home so far. I’ve been in love with Andrew Luck since he came into the league, but I was still a little weary of the team as a whole. After a really impressive win over the Seahawks on Sunday, they are now 4-1 and in firm control of the AFC South. However, they have to face Denver next week (a probable loss), so they really need a win here to maintain their position as division favorites. The Chargers were knocked down a peg last week by losing to Oakland, and I think Luck has his way with their secondary. Indianapolis 27, San Diego 17

Lock of the Week: NE and WAS, although I want to say DEN (-28)

Performance of the Week: Arian Foster, Torrey Smith

Surprise of the Week: Buffalo over Cincy. Thad Nation!