Week 7 Preview
Before diving into the Week 7 games, I just want to say that I have been very busy with school, but as soon as possible I am going to try to get out an NBA preview column, and a major piece about Mariano Rivera’s career. Bare with me on those. As for football, Week 6 was another less than stellar week for my picks, and for the overall quality of games in general. There were not too many fireworks last weekend, except for Tom Brady doing Brady things to the New Orleans Saints. The one bright spot for me the past couple of weeks is that even though many of my picks have been off, I did have another solid upset pick. Although Dallas and Buffalo did not win outright like I thought they would in Weeks 5 and 6, respectively, if you listened to me and bet them to cover then you would have been very satisfied. The Bills miraculously forced overtime with the Bengals on Sunday, and even though they lost, showed some spirit with Thad Lewis throwing two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. I’m just going to jump right into this week’s slate of games, which includes my personal Game of the Year. But more on that later.
SEA vs ARI (+5.5) - Yes, I did not get my picks out in time for Thursday’s game, but it doesn’t matter because I was wrong anyway. I thought the Cardinals would stand a chance at home on a short week against an only average road team in Seattle. However, it looks like the Seahawks are just head and shoulders above everyone else in this tough division. The Cardinals, had they scored a garbage time touchdown on their final drive, would have had a hilariously bogus cover at 34-29, and would have given me a win for this game. However, it was not meant to be, and the Seahawks will have a nice long week to get ready for their next game. By the way: keep your ears open for these Percy Harvin comeback rumors; apparently he’s getting close.
NE vs NYJ (+4) - The big story here is the expected return of Rob Gronkowski to the Patriots, which would give Tom Brady a much-needed familiar face to throw to. Although New England deserves much credit for beating the Saints in the final seconds last week, it does have to be said that New Orleans really screwed up those last couple of minutes. They had the ball like three times in the final minutes and couldn’t get one first down to ice the game. Meanwhile, the Jets played like garbage last week against the Steelers, which is why this line is so high. Remember, the last time these two teams played, the Pats won 13-10 at home, only because Geno Smith threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter. This time, New England has no Wilfork, Jerod Mayo or stud corner Aqib Talib, meaning that Gang Green will be able to pound the ball down the middle of the Patriots’ defense and have some success through the air as well. The Jets also play Tom Brady freakishly well, although it seems they can never just seal the deal to beat him. But Gronk or not, I’m still taking the Jets, because I think that right now everything favors them. If the J-E-T-S cannot get the job done on Sunday, then I believe they can no longer be taken seriously until they prove otherwise. You can’t lose two winnable games in a row at home and expect to make the playoffs. New England 16, New York 20
SD vs JAC (+8) - The decision I made for this game absolutely terrifies me, so let me get it out of the way as soon as possible: UPSET ALERT!!!! My last two upset picks have been successful at least against the spread, and I just feel like the time is now for the Jaguars. Chad Henne is still starting over the incompetent Blaine Gabbert, and he can put points on the board as long as he’s throwing to Justin Blackmon. San Diego, in recent years, has followed up great wins with stupefying losses, and right now they have to go across the country on a short week with all the pressure in the world on them to not lose. Just close your eyes and pray. San Diego 13, Jacksonville 19
CIN vs DET (-2.5) - One team is explosive with their young talent on offense, the other is not. Cincinnati 20, Detroit 30
BUF (+7.5) vs MIA - This is a tough matchup for the Bills, especially if the putrid Matt Flynn is starting for them. I think the Dolphins win this game, but I don’t know if they have the juice to run away from the Bills, so I’m taking the points and trusting that Buffalo can keep it at one possession. Buffalo 23, Miami 27
CHI (+1) vs WAS - How are the Bears not favored in this game? What exactly was Washington shown us this year that would make someone confident in picking them? I’m not saying that they can’t win this game, I just think that they won’t. Who is going to stop Forte, Marshall, and Jeffrey? Chicago 31, Washington 20
DAL (+2.5) vs PHI - Pure gut call here that Tony Romo will be able to outscore Nick Foles. Foles has looked good so far this year, but I think this game gets decided by something fluky, like a dropped fourth down pass or a batted ball that gets intercepted, or a shady penalty call. Dallas 34, Philadelphia 28
STL vs CAR (-7) - Last week’s Rams’ win was more than a bit misleading. Give me Cam, DeAngelo Williams, and the Panthers’ front seven at home. We’ll just say that the Cardinals are St. Louis’ team right now. St. Louis 14, Carolina 24
TB (+6.5) vs ATL - Tampa Bay is awful, but who is going to score enough for Atlanta to win by at least a touchdown? Tampa Bay 20, Atlanta 24
SF vs TEN (+3.5) - Apparently Jake Locker is going to be back in the starting lineup this week! This is another gut call. The Titans’ defense is for real, and they stayed competitive in Ryan Fitzpatrick’s time against the Chiefs and Seahawks. The Niners have been clicking, but I think they run into some trouble in this game. The Titans will win the turnover battle by at least two, and take down a powerhouse. San Francisco 19, Tennessee 23
HOU vs KC (-6.5) - How is this spread still less than a touchdown? Case Keenum is starting for the Texans. In Arrowhead Stadium. Houston 13, Kansas City 27
CLE (+10) vs GB - This is my least favorite line of the week. On the one hand, the Packers are without Randall Cobb and most likely James Jones, while Jordy Nelson will be blanketed by Joe Haden. Will they be able to score enough points to pull away from a very good Cleveland defense? However, on the other hand, are you really taking points with Brandon Weeden in Green Bay? Only take double digit spreads if you’re incredibly confident in it. I say the Browns force a lot of field goals. Cleveland 14, Green Bay 23
BAL (+1.5) vs PIT - It may not be the rivalry it was two or three years ago, but this game will still be as hard-hitting as ever. And right now, even though the Ravens are not playing good football, they always come back with wins when they need to. This Sunday, I think they grind out a tough win against the Steelers to right the ship. The Steelers just don’t have the horses right now to power through. Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 13
DEN (-6.5) vs IND - Here it is. The Game of the Year. I am not going to miss a single second of Peyton’s return to Indianapolis. All season long, I planned on taking the Colts with the points because I thought it would be a classic shootout. Two things changed my mind. First, the playcalling for the Colts on Monday Night was just atrocious. Against the 31st ranked pass defense in the league and with Andrew Luck at quarterback, I think they took two shots downfield all night. They were ultra-conservative, even as they watched San Diego controlling the clock, and it resulted in them only scoring nine points. I don’t think they have the balls to try to go toe-to-toe with Peyton Manning. Second, this might be a road game for the Broncos, but it is a home game for Peyton. He is going to be fired up. So, naturally, the Colts’ owner, Jim Irsay, took it upon himself to light the fuse! In comments he made earlier this week, he stated (note: this is paraphrased) how he was disappointed that the Peyton-Dungy-Polian era only yielded one Super Bowl and was bounced in their first playoff game seven times in eleven years, and that hopefully this new Andrew Luck era would be more successful. Now, it’s perfectly within his right to say this, and he has a point: it is kind of shocking that the Colts only won one ring with number 18. However, everyone has heard the expression “don’t poke the bear”. Peyton, when asked about these comments from Irsay, of course had no comment, but it had to have frustrated him on the inside to be disrespected publicly after all he gave that city. If I was Peyton, I would want to put up 50 on Indy to wipe his former owner’s nose in it. On a lighter note, I am really excited to see him return to his old stomping grounds, the city where he is basically a god. There is only one team in the NFL that Peyton hasn’t beaten; come Sunday night, he’ll have all 32. I’m getting chills just thinking about this game. Let’s go. Peyton Manning 48, Indianapolis 31
MIN vs NYG (-3.5) - Vikings fans, get ready for the Josh Freeman era! The free agent pickup will make his first start with his new team, on Monday Night against a desperate Giants team. Big Blue has reached the lowest of the low. They now have a home game on Monday Night when everyone will be watching them. They are facing a very beatable team without the best player in their secondary (Harrison Smith). This is the final stand for the G-Men. If they fall in this primetime game, heads will roll. It’s go time, Eli. Minnesota 17, New York 27
Lock of the Week: KC (-6.5), CHI (+1)
Performance of the Week: Peyton. Enough said.
Surprise of the Week: Jacksonville wins a game!!!
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