Official 2014 Week 1 Predictions

Week 1 Predictions

            Another year, another opportunity to practice picking football games with the point spread! Let’s get started with the Week One lines, and happy football.

            GB (+6) vs SEA – I don’t know why I thought that Seattle wouldn’t cover a game at home. Maybe I’m just rusty because it was the first game of the season. But not a great start; hopefully I’ll be smarter on Sunday!

            NO (-3.5) vs ATL – This line keeps rising as more and more people fall in love with the team I picked to win the Super Bowl in June. It’s not reassuring when the whole public is on one team to win it all, but short-term, I love the Saints in the regular season for sure. New Orleans 27, Atlanta 17

            MIN (+3) vs STL – This game is the perfect case of literally anything could happen and it wouldn’t be surprising. For now, I’ll take the team with Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson. Minnesota 24, St. Louis 20

            CLE vs PIT (-6.5) – The Steelers at home in an opener against a young QB. Lock it in. Cleveland 13, Pittsburgh 24

            JAC (+10) vs PHI – The Jags aren’t that bad, and you’re getting double digits. Close your eyes and take it. Jacksonville 17, Philadelphia 26

            OAK (+7) vs NYJ – I love the Jets in this game. But are they good enough to be favored over anyone by a full touchdown? I kind of like Derek Carr! But still give me the Jets straight up. Oakland 20, New York 24

            CIN vs BAL (-1) – Coin flip game. I love the Ravens and hate the Bengals, especially in Baltimore. Cincinnati 21, Baltimore 24

            BUF (+7) vs CHI – I’ve been hearing all week that ALL the money is going on the Bears this week…the Bills love running the football and Chicago was atrocious at stopping the run last year. But I’m in on the Bears this year, and I think they pull out a tighter-than-expected contest. Buffalo 23, Chicago 27

            WAS vs HOU (-3) – Gotta see it to believe it with RGIII. For now I’ll take the home team that has Foster, Johnson, Clowney, and Watt. Washington 17, Houston 20

            TEN (+3.5) vs KC – The Chiefs seem due for a regression year after their defense got torched following a 9-0 start. If the Titans can contain Jamaal Charles, I think Jake Locker is good enough to put points on the board and pull off the UPSET ALERT of Week One. Tennessee 21, Kansas City 16

            NE (-4.5) vs MIA – Feels like a lot of points for a team that plays the Patriots really well, but I can’t go against New England in the opener right? I’m all in on Gronk and Vareen this year, and I’d bet on this team to start out 1-0. New England 27, Miami 20

            CAR vs TB (-3) – Huge swing to -3 for Tampa, but I still like it. I’m not as high on the Bucs as some other people, but I still think that they are more talented than the Panthers right now, especially with Cam being banged up. Big start for Lovie Smith in his first game. Carolina 13, Tampa Bay 23

            SF (-3.5) vs DAL – Because why would you put yourself in a position to root for the Cowboys defense? San Francisco 31, Dallas 27

            IND (+8) vs DEN – Just like Seattle, I don’t know why I’m going against the Broncos at home in a primetime opener. But I love Andrew Luck and I think that he can keep enough pace to make it worth taking the points. Indianapolis 27, Denver 34

            NYG vs DET (-6.5) – I want to take the Giants so bad in this one, but they have looked so bad in the preseason, and the Lions are deadly in a dome. I think they will come out on Monday Night and thrash the G-Men, but I hope not. New York 17, Detroit 34

            SD (+3) vs ARI – The Chargers are going to be really, really good this year and even though I picked both these teams to finish 10-6, someone has to lose this first one. I’d be more scared picking the team who has already lost Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington, and quite possibly Andre Ellington. Go Chargers Go. San Diego 27, Arizona 20

            Lock of the Week: PIT (-6.5)

Official 2014 NFL Predictions

              The brand new NFL season is upon us, and therefore it’s time for my 2014 NFL predictions! In the past, I’ve done team by team previews but this time you’ll only have to read one huge piece that will go over records, stats, bets, and of course, playoff predictions. 2013 was the year of Peyton Manning until the Seahawks put on a dominating show in the Super Bowl. Who do I think will still be playing in January for a chance to win the Lombardi Trophy this time around? Let’s get right to it, with my standings predictions.

AFC

West                                         North                                                South                             East

DEN   12-4                             PIT      10-6                               IND    11-5                       NE      11-5

SD       10-6                            BAL    9-7                                  TEN   8-8                         NYJ    9-7

KC       6-10                            CIN     8-8                                  HOU   7-9                       MIA    8-8

OAK   4-12                             CLE    5-11                                 JAC    5-11                       BUF    6-10

NFC

West                                         North                                                South                              East

SEA    11-5                             GB      11-5                                  NO      12-4                     PHI     9-7

ARI     10-6                           CHI     10-6                                 TB       8-8                      WAS   8-8

SF       9-7                             DET    9-7                                    ATL    7-9                       NYG   7-9

STL     7-9                            MIN    6-10                                  CAR    6-10                    DAL    6-10

            My playoff predictions will be at the end of the post, but here are all my regular season projections for the 32 teams. Some notable results are a lot of the second place finishers in their respective divisions: the Jets, Titans, Cardinals, Bucs, and Washington. The Steelers and Saints are the only new division winners. A few teams that are one year away from being competitive are Buffalo, St. Louis, Minnesota, and Jacksonville. Keep an eye out for them in 2015.

Player Predictions

Arizona Cardinals: Many people are calling for the breakout of Andre Ellington, but I think that Michael Floyd will make the biggest leap this season, outperforming Larry Fitzgerald with 70+ receptions, 1,000 yards, and 7-8 TDs.

Atlanta Falcons: Paul Worrilow will finish top 5 in tackles in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens: Torrey Smith will have 75 receptions, 1,250 yards, and 8 touchdowns, while Justin Tucker leads the NFL in field goals made.

Buffalo Bills: CJ Spiller tops 1,500 yards from scrimmage, but Fred Jackson still has more TDs. Sammy Watkins, sure to be great in the future, will have at most five touchdowns.

Carolina Panthers: D/ST in fantasy will drop out of the top 10.

Chicago Bears: Matt Forte will fall just shy of 2,000 yards from scrimmage, and Jay Cutler will throw for less than 12 interceptions.

Cincinnati Bengals: No one besides AJ Green will have more than 6 receiving TDs. Vontaze Burfict racks up over 150 tackles again.

Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel will start 8 games this season. In those games, the Browns will be 3-5. Manziel: 13 pass TDs, 3 rush TDs, 11 turnovers.

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys will have the worst defense. Ever. Therefore, Romo will throw for 4,200 yards and 30 TDs, 14 to Dez Bryant.

Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning will NOT throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns again. 4,500 yards and 37 TDs sounds about right, with 14 picks.

Detroit Lions: Joique Bell will have more rushes, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, and total TDs than Reggie Bush.

Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, and Jordy Nelson all finish top 4 at their fantasy position this year. Lacy rushes for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. Neither Clay Matthews nor Julius Peppers will get to 10 sacks, but the Pack will lead the NFL in interceptions.

Houston Texans: Clowney and JJ Watt combine for 22 sacks. DeAndre Hopkins will have more TDs than Andre Johnson.

Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck throws for 4,000 yards, 28 touchdowns plus a couple of more rushing, and finishes third in the MVP voting (but first in my heart).

Jacksonville Jaguars: The defense is ranked in the top half of the league. Toby Gerhart rushes for 1,000 yards, and Blake Bortles will lead this team to the playoffs within the next three years.

Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles regresses in almost all of the significant statistics, and this team will have a turnover margin of +5 or worse.

Miami Dolphins: Olivier Vernon will out-sack Cameron Wake 11 to 9.

Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater starts at least 4 games and will have twice as many TDs as INTs. Cordarrelle Patterson will be the latest Norv Turner beneficiary, finishing with 72 receptions, 1,289 yards, and 10 total TD.

New England Patriots: Three-part prediction: Shane Vareen leads all RB in receptions, and gets 1,200 total yards and 10 total TD; Rob Gronkowski plays at least 14 games, and catches at least 14 TD; Chandler Jones will lead the NFL in sacks and will finish in the top three of Defensive Player of the Year voting (maybe even winning it!).

New Orleans Saints: Defense finishes in the top 5 overall and in turnovers forced. Mark Ingram will rush for 8 touchdowns.

New York Giants: Eli Manning will throw for less than 15 interceptions but also less than 25 touchdowns. Reuben Randle leads the team in TDs.

New York Jets: Geno Smith throws 22 TD and runs for four more. Combined with under 15 turnovers and a top 5 defense, they make the playoffs!

Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr will only win 4 games as a starter but will prove he belongs with 20-25 touchdown passes. Rookie Khalil Mack (from the UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO!!!!!!!!!!!!!) records double-digit sacks.

Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Foles will not throw for more than 27 touchdowns or less than 10 interceptions. Jordan Matthews will have over 50 receptions and will be the number one receiver by next season.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Antonio Brown leads the NFL in receptions, while Ryan Shazier wins defensive rookie of the year with over 130 tackles.

San Diego Chargers: Ladarius Green has more receiving TDs than Antonio Gates, but not receptions or yardage. Keenan Allen will almost replicate his rookie season, with about a 70-1,100-8 split.

San Francisco 49ers: Carlos Hyde finishes with more TD than Vernon Davis (we’ll see if that’s a good or bad thing), Michael Crabtree records 80 catches and 8 touchdowns, and the defense will fall out of the top 8 or so.

Seattle Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch has one more year of 1,200 and 12 in him, and Earl Thomas has more INTs than Richard Sherman. Percy Harvin will not lead the team in any receiving categories.

St. Louis Rams: Defense will lead the league in sacks and finish in the top 3 overall, but the offense will rank no better than 25^th.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Doug Martin will not get to 700 rush yards or 5 touchdowns. The defense will be top seven and Lavonte David will win Defensive Player of the Year in year one of Lovie Smith.

Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker, if healthy, will have 3,000 passing yards and 25 total TDs. Justin Hunter will lead the team in receiving touchdowns.

Washington: Robert Griffin III will have 4,000 total yards and 25 touchdowns. Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson each have 1,000 yards and 5+ touchdowns. Future Pro Bowler: Trent Murphy, keep an eye out for him.

Playoff Predictions

AFC

1^st Round: New York Jets 17, Indianapolis 27; San Diego 24, Pittsburgh 21

2^nd Round: San Diego 31, Denver 28; Indianapolis 27, New England 34

AFC Championship: San Diego 20, New England 26

            NFC

1^st Round: Arizona 13, Green Bay 27; Chicago 31, Philadelphia 30

2^nd Round: Chicago 24, New Orleans 34; Green Bay 24, Seattle 23

NFC Championship: Green Bay 20, New Orleans 24

Super Bowl

New England 24, New Orleans 27

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

            I’ve been thinking it for months now, and I’m sticking with my gut: the New Orleans Saints will win the Super Bowl, giving Drew Brees his second ring. However, I think the defense will have a much more important role than people realize. Cameron Jordan is a monster pass rusher, and the they run out arguably the league’s best safety duo outside of Seattle in Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd. They were already one of the best units in the NFL, even without scoring a single touchdown on defense and special teams last year. Drew Brees will have his usual historic season, utilizing more outside speed this time around with Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills. Their regular season schedule is relatively easy, and I think being able to secure home field in the daunting NFC is a HUGE advantage in making a Super Bowl run. I think that the New Orleans Saints are the most complete team in the NFL this year, and that’s why I think they will finish the season by lifting the Lombardi Trophy.

Bets

            I’ve saved the best section of the predictions for last! Even though I’d be able to do it, I want to wait until I start my career to actually put money down on these bets, but the following are the wagers I’d consider making. Remember, many of these will be VALUE bets, not necessarily what I think will definitely happen. So without further ado, here are my favorite bets that I’ve found, courtesy of sportsbook.com.

·      Jordy Nelson over 1400 receiving yards (+600)

·      Antonio Brown over 100 yards receiving in at least 7 games (+800)

·      Drew Brees throws for 300 yards every game (+12500!!!!!)

·      First Coach Fired: Dennis Allen, OAK (+450)

·      Worst Team: Dallas Cowboys (+1800) – If Romo’s back acts up…

·      Defensive Player of the Year: Lavonte David (+2000), Earl Thomas (+3500), Chandler Jones (dark horse)

·      Defensive Rookie of the Year: Khalil Mack (+700), Ryan Shazier (+1000)

·      Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jordan Matthews (+1200)

·      MVP: ANDREW LUCK (+1500) – Think Rodgers (+500) will win

·      To Win the Super Bowl: Saints (+1100), Colts (+2800) – Maybe Andrew Luck is just better than everyone at football

·      Possible Super Bowl Matchups: SAINTS vs. PATRIOTS (+2500!!!!!), Packers/Saints vs. Colts (+8000)

            That’s going to finally wrap up my official 2014 NFL predictions post. I’ll be back soon to once again start my weekly column of picking games with the point spread, a task I’ll hopefully improve on from last year. To recap, here are the things you should be looking for this football season: Denver and New Orleans will be the top seeds in each conference; the Steelers, Jets, Cardinals, and Bears will be the new teams in the playoffs; things to watch out for in the future: Jordan Matthews, Trent Murphy, the Jags with Blake Bortles; the breakouts of Shazier, Patterson, and Chandler Jones; the semi-breakouts of Michael Floyd, DeAndre Hopkins, and Shane Vareen; Before losing to the Saints in the NFC Championship, Aaron Rodgers will play the game of his life in Seattle to take down the Seahawks; My big sleeper pick: look for the Chargers to make the AFC Championship Game! I don’t know why I agree with Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal on this, but it feels right. I may hate them, but the Patriots will be great this year, especially Vareen, Gronk, Jones, and Revis; and, of course, the New Orleans Saints will be your Super Bowl Champions. Enjoy the season!

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

We’ve finally made it. Tonight, a champion will be crowned, and another team will be added to the immortal ranks of Super Bowl winners. After a wild season, the final chapter of 2013 in the NFL will not be shocking, no matter the result of the game. The Broncos and the Seahawks were the two best teams in their respective conferences all year long, and their clash will provide us with nothing short of a powerhouse duel. A historic offense will will try to defeat a terrifying defense, although people seem to forget that only accounts for half the game. But with respect to Seattle’s offense and Denver’s defense, the most captivating part of this battle will be, of course, Peyton Manning trying to figure out Richard Sherman and the relentless D of the Seahawks. Every aspect of this game will be accounted for in this preview, including my pick, statistical predictions, and my favorite prop bets, but first a few thoughts about the Conference Championship Games.

On the AFC side, Denver dominated New England. There’s no simpler way to say it. They had the ball forever, they could run and pass at will, and Peyton Manning rarely missed a throw. The Broncos’ defense held Tom Brady to three points until the fourth quarter, including shutting down the running game that had yielded SIX touchdowns for the Pats the week before. One important note about this game: I didn’t think the Welker hit on Aqib Talib was a dirty play. People are only whining about it because Talib was sidelines afterward, which did, admittedly, impact the rest of the game; did you see Demaryius Thomas go off right after that? But Welker’s play wasn’t as dirty as people made it out to seem. He did make a surprisingly hard hit for a wide receiver, but it was a pick play, and football is a physical sport. I wouldn’t have minded if it was called a penalty, but it would have been for offensive pass interference, NOT unnecessary roughness. Either way, the Broncos dismantled the Patriots and deserve to be here.

The 49ers-Seahawks game lived up to the hype and exceeded it. This was as close a perfect game of football as you can get. Each team was physical and determined from the opening kick, and every moment of all four quarters was thrilling. Kaepernick ran wild; Marshawn Lynch went Beast Mode; Kaep had a ridiculous jump-throw to Boldin for a TD; Wilson followed that up with a gorgeous 4th and 7 strike to Kearse to take the lead; NaVorro Bowman gave his knee trying to make a play; and in the end, Richard Sherman had the last laugh with an incredible play. The final score was 23-17, a defensive struggle that also saw its share of scoring thanks to some dynamic plays. Kaepernick, although he did play a hell of a game, did finish it off with fumble-interception-interception on his final three drives in a one-score game, something that did make me very happy. However, much respect has to be given to him and San Francisco as a team; although they haven’t won the Super Bowl, they have made the NFC title game (or beyond) for three consecutive years, which is a phenomenal achievement in a league that is supposed to have parity. And of course, I have one final thought about what everyone was talking about: the Richard Sherman outburst, while shocking, was completely overblown. Did he handle that moment the way you would want your child to handle it? No. But confidence is what he is about; he will never shy away from anything, and two minutes beforehand he made the play to send his team to the Super Bowl. After three hours of battling the team and specifically player (Crabtree) that he has a huge rivalry with. He is not a bad person, a thug, or any term you wish to use. He is arrogant, but if that is someone’s worst quality, is it really so much of a problem? Speaking of arrogance, let me show off some of the predictions I had for this game. The first numbers will be my guesses, followed by the actual results.

Wilson: 16-24, 202 yds, TD, fumble; 16-25, 215 yds, TD, fumble

Kaepernick: 14-26, 176 yds, TD, 2 INT; 14-24, 153 yds, TD, 2 INT

Final Score: SEA 24-17; SEA 23-17

Let’s just say I’m coming into the Super Bowl on a roll. And now, onto the big game.

I’ve thought about a lot of ways how to do this, because I want to throw a lot of different predictions about this game into my preview. Although I wanted to leave some suspense for the end before revealing my pick, I figure that all my stat and prop predictions would make a lot more sense if you already knew the big picture. So, without further ado, here is my pick for Super Bowl XLVIII...

SEA vs DEN (-2.5) - That’s right, I think the DENVER BRONCOS will win the Super Bowl tonight, in the absolutely incredible battle that everyone is hoping it will be. Historically, logic says you should pick the number one DEFENSE over the number one offense, but I’m not making this pick with my head. I picked Denver to win it all before the season, but more importantly, Peyton Manning has been my favorite football player for 10 years now, and I would want more than anything for him to win his second ring. If the Seahawks do win, I’ll be disappointed, but not angry; I still do like Seattle a lot, and would be fine if they won, so long as it wasn’t the Patriots or 49ers hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Peyton Manning has owned the season ever since christening it with seven touchdowns on opening night. He just won his FIFTH MVP award, after setting records for passing yards, passing touchdowns, and points scored in a single season. The line on this one is only two and a half points (although a real argument could be made that Seattle should be favored), which made it easy for me to pick them to cover as well. So now that you know you I’m picking to win, I’ll give you all my other predictions right now, and cap it all off with a recap later. Go Broncos! Seattle 20, Denver 27

Stats

Manning: 26-41, 303 yds, 2 TD, INT

Wilson: 18-32, 223 yds, TD, INT, 18 rush yds

Moreno: 18 rush, 71 yds, TD, 3 rec, 14 yds, TD

Lynch: 25 rush, 87 yds, TD

D Thomas: 5 rec, 72 yds, TD

Decker: 6 rec, 107 yds

Welker: 4 rec, 46 yds, 3 third down conversions

J Thomas: 3 rec, 22 yds

Baldwin: 6 rec, 82 yds

Tate: 5 rec, 66 yds

Harvin: 2 rec, 18 yds

Kearse: 2 rec, 31 yds, TD

Prater: 2/2 FG, 31 and 49

Hauschka: 2/2 FG, 26 and 35

Here are my offensive statistical predictions for you, as defense is too random to guess for specific players. However, I will say that Manning’s interception will NOT be made by any of the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom secondary; it will come on either A) a tipped-up ball by a defensive lineman, or B) a linebacker that showed blitz but dropped into coverage. Richard Sherman will be limited because the Broncos will move Thomas around so it won’t be one-on-one the whole night; the man in the secondary to watch is Earl Thomas, a just-as-talented-but-much-quieter safety. As far as the receivers go, I think Demaryius Thomas will get in the end zone tonight, but not have the best statistical performance on the team because he will be shadowed by the aforementioned Sherman throughout. I think the best bet out of the Denver receivers to get to 100 yards is Decker, who hasn’t had a huge playoff performance yet. I think Percy Harvin will be a relative non-factor for the Seahawks, along with the weather everyone has been so obsessed with, although he will be used as a decoy. Each of these teams has a superb rush defense, which is why I think both main running backs will be held under 100 yards in this game--this is a much bigger deal for Seattle, as so much of their offensive success comes from running the ball. Even though I have Lynch getting into the end zone, I think he fails to hit triple digits and is held under four yards a carry. Moreno will have the same limited success against the vaunted front seven of the ‘Hawks, but I do think he finds the end zone twice, once on the ground and the other in the air, which would have made him a great pick for MVP if it wasn’t destined to go to Manning in the event of a Denver victory. As for the QBs, I think Wilson, for as great as he’s been in two years, will be a little rattled out of the gate. He’ll be off-target the first time he’s faced with a third and long. He is a very poised and confident young man, but this is quite a big stage, and I think he struggles in the first quarter before turning it on in the second half. And now to Peyton. I think that he will have a little trouble figuring out Seattle’s secondary, but he’s too good to stop forever. He throws it enough times to get to 300 yards, but will turn it over once. He will have exactly two touchdowns, the first to Thomas, and the second to Moreno late in the fourth quarter to break a 20-20 tie and win the game. But more on that later.

Props

This is the very fun part of making Super Bowl predictions: prop bets! You can bet on anything from the length of the National Anthem, the result of the coin toss, what color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach, and who the Super Bowl MVP will thank first in his speech. I’m going to go through my favorites, some important and some just for fun.

1. UNDER 47.5 points: I think this will be a relatively low scoring game, like the SF-SEA game a couple of weeks ago. My predicted score was 27-20, giving us 47, but that is the absolute highest I think the score can go. Seattle will score around 20, but as good as Peyton is, I don’t think he gets to 30 against this defense. Under 47.5 is the way to go here, especially since both teams like to extend drives and eat up clock on their possessions.
2. Percy Harvin UNDER 3.5 receptions (+135): I don’t think he’ll be a big factor tonight.
3. Knowshon Moreno WILL score a touchdown (+110), or even better, Moreno to score the LAST touchdown (+800)
4. Eric Decker OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115), and between 101-110 (+1500)
5. Virgil Green will have AT LEAST ONE reception (+120): Cousin Sal talked about this on the BS Report will Bill Simmons last week, and I think this one comes true.
6. Doug Baldwin +15.5 receiving yards vs Wes Welker (-105): I think he’ll have more straight up, and he’s getting 16 yards against a short yardage receiver facing a suffocating D?
7. Super Bowl MVP: obviously, I would say Peyton Manning (+110), because I think he’s going to win, but some value bets are Moreno (+1700), Lynch (+450), and how about Trindon Holliday (+8000) in case there is special teams magic?
8. ORANGE (+275) or RED (+750) for the color of the Gatorade bath.
9. Jermaine Kearse OVER 11.5 yards on first catch (+110): Because this was the only Kearse prop I could find.
10. Peyton Manning passing yards between 301-320 (+800): I think by volume and the plethora of weapons around him, Manning barely eclipses 300 yards, putting a nice bow on a Super Bowl victory.

So if you are going to bet (my 21st birthday is on Wednesday, so I’ll be very excited for next year’s props), these are the wagers that I would target. Prop bets are a lot of fun, because you get to sit there with your family and friends shouting things like “GET OFF YOUR ASS, VIRGIL GREEN!”, or if you’re feeling really bold and unpatriotic, “HURRY UP WITH THE ANTHEM I NEED IT TO BE UNDER 139.5 SECONDS!”, or you get completely obsessed with how many times Peyton Manning yells the word “Omaha!” -- for the record, if I made this bet, I would go with the UNDER 28.5 (+105)...but if you do any of these things you probably have a gambling problem.

So there you have it, my Super Bowl XLVIII predictions. I’m picking the Denver Broncos to defeat the Seattle Seahawks 27-20, giving Peyton Manning his second ring. The game will be tied 3-3 after the first quarter before Manning hits Demaryius Thomas for a TD in the second; after that, Lynch will get his score, and the half will close on a Matt Prater field goal (13-10). The Seahawks will burst out in the second half with the Wilson TD to Kearse, the Manning interception, and Hauschka field goal giving Seattle a 20-13 lead. But in the late 3rd/early 4th quarter, Moreno will punch one in to tie the game, and after a Seattle punt after failing to convert on 3rd and 3 from the Denver 48, Manning will drive the Broncos 91 yards in 13 plays, hitting Knowshon Moreno out of the backfield for the game-winning 11 yard touchdown with 2:13 to go. Russell Wilson will give his best effort to come back, but his fourth down hail mary from midfield will fall incomplete, and the game will end. So it is written, so let it be done.

I mentioned this before, but the one aspect of this game that people aren’t giving much thought, and understandably so, is the matchup between the Seattle offense and Denver defense. The sexy matchup is Peyton vs the Legion of Boom, but on the other side of the ball, I think the Broncos have an advantage. The ‘Hawks main strength offensively is the running game, which Denver has been great against, especially in the playoffs against the Chargers and Patriots. I think that while the Seattle defense is terrific, there’s a very slim chance that Peyton will not still put up 24-27 points. So the question is, can Russell Wilson match that? I don’t think so. Lynch is good for a touchdown, but I think he gets held under 100 yards, which means that a majority of the points are going to have to be supplied by the second-year QB. He only threw for 250 or more yards four times this season, including the playoffs, and the last time he did so was December 2nd against the Saints, two months ago. That is also the last game he threw multiple touchdown passes. He has done just enough to win games with a loaded roster around him, and while I think he does have the talent and intangibles to win games, if he wants to win THIS particular game, he’s going to have to do more than just manage the offense. He’s going toe to toe with Peyton Manning to win a championship, so he’s going to have to put up 250 yards and 2 TDs if he wants to win. Even with Von Miller out, the Denver Broncos have a very underrated defense, and although they struggle most against the pass, that isn’t what the Seahawks are built for. To me, that was the deciding factor to pick the Broncos. If Peyton and the Seattle D play to a stalemate, I give the edge to Denver’s D than Seattle’s offense. Two things could prove me wrong: Wilson scrambling around and rushing for 75-100 yards, or Percy Harvin providing the firepower that has been lacking. But I’ll take my chances.

Finally, I want to end with Peyton Manning. He’s been my favorite football player since I was a kid, and there’s so much talk about his legacy, which is understandable, albeit annoying. Whether he wins or loses this game, it won’t prove that he can or can’t win big games in the playoffs. It’s his third time to the Super Bowl, which is three more than most players get to play in, and this game is basically a toss-up. Arguments can be made that by winning this game, Manning could officially become the “Greatest Quarterback Ever”, whatever that means to you. You can’t really compare the likes of Manning, Brady, Montana, Elway, Unitas, Marino, etc. If you think Super Bowl rings are the most important, than Montana and Bradshaw are on the top of your list; if you value statistical records, than Brett Favre is your guy. There will never be an answer to who is the best QB ever, but I think that I would not be out-of-bounds to say this: I think that Peyton Manning is the most talented quarterback ever. He is the perfect blend of size, power, accuracy, and especially brains. He is the smartest athlete I have ever seen, he is a Super Bowl champion, and by the time he retires he will be either first or second in the record books for almost every meaningful quarterbacking statistic. If you are constructing a hypothetical perfect quarterback based on the skills you think are most important, you’re taking more of Peyton to be in that guy than anyone else. That is my stance on his legacy, whether or not he wins this game tonight. There may not ever be an answer to who is the greatest, but if I could pick any QB in the history of the NFL to lead my team to victory in a vacuum, I’m taking Peyton.

I hope you liked this piece and read my weekly picks over the course of the season. I poured a lot of emotion into my football picks, so I appreciate it if you’ve made it this far. Enjoy the game everybody. Long live Peyton Manning.

2013 NFL Conference Championship Preview

Conference Championship Preview

HERE WE GO. The matchups that we all wanted. After a surprisingly pedestrian second round, I feel that we are left with the four best teams in the league. Sunday will be a historic day of games, with the two best contests that we could ever ask for. The first game is between the Patriots and Broncos for the AFC Championship, which means one thing: Brady vs Manning. Every time these two quarterbacks take the field, something special happens, and now we have a battle for a Super Bowl berth. Afterward, on the other side, we have the NFC will-be war between the 49ers and the Seahawks up in Seattle. To say that there will be blood is an understatement; I’m expecting at least two major injuries, including at least one concussion. These are the two most physical teams in the league, playing for the third time this season, and they absolutely hate each other. This year, the crowd in Seattle has set a world record for noise, and reportedly last week caused an EARTHQUAKE on Marshawn Lynch’s final touchdown run. The Niners have been blown out the last two times they went up to the Pacific Northwest, and Kaepernick, as good as he has looked in two playoff games, was utterly overmatched against the Legion of Boom secondary. There’s nothing left to say; each of these teams are so even with their opponents, that literally anything could happen. So instead of making long drawn-out paragraphs about each game, I’m just going to give my picks with my statistical predictions. I’m ready for two absolutely epic games.

NE (+5.5) vs DEN - Before you freak out and think I’m a traitor, I’m not picking the Patriots to win. I would never do that. But even I am not so blind to disrespect Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to think that they won’t stay within five points of Denver. The Pats are playing incredible football right now with the run and pass and I’m terrified that they are going to win this game outright. But I’m not going against my boy Peyton against the team I hate. Here are my stat predictions:

Brady: 21-33, 289 yds, 2 TD, INT

Manning: 24-37, 332 yds, 3 TD, INT

Blount: 13 rush, 41 yds

Ridley: 5 rush, 24 yds, TD, fumble

Vareen: 3 rush, 13 yds, 5 rec, 37 yds, TD

Moreno: 16 rush, 74 yds, TD

Edelman: 8 rec, 84 yds, TD

D Thomas: 5 rec, 72 yds

Decker: 4 rec, 81 yds, TD

Welker: 6 rec, 53 yds, TD

J Thomas: 4 rec, 62 yds, TD

Final Score: New England 27, Denver 31

SF vs SEA (-3.5) - While I don’t think that this game will be a blowout, I think the Seahawks continue their trend of kicking the 49ers’ asses physically at home and punching them in the mouth. The fans will cause another earthquake and break their own noise world record with the Super Bowl on the line. Kaepernick and the Niners will be forced to keeping burning useless timeouts from not being able to hear anything. The matchup to watch are the receivers for San Fran against the secondary of Seattle, and if thought the jawing between the 49ers and Carolina was bad last week, you ain’t seen nothing yet! This game will be electric all the way around, but when it comes down to it, I think that Russell Wilson will play his best game in two months, and make the big plays by moving around with his legs when it matters most.

Kaepernick: 14-26, 176 yds, TD, 2 INT, 34 rush yds

Wilson: 16-24, 202 yds, TD, fumble, 41 rush yds

Gore: 19 rush, 76 yds, TD

Lynch: 23 rush, 121 yds, 2 TD

Crabtree: 5 rec, 51 yds

Davis: 3 rec, 40 yds, TD

Tate: 7 rec, 90 yds, TD

Final Score: San Francisco 17, Seattle 24

Lock of the Week: NE (+5.5)

Performance of the Week: Marshawn Lynch, SEA

Surprise of the Week: Super Bowl will be Denver vs Seattle. Let’s go.