The brand new NFL season is upon us,
and therefore it’s time for my 2014 NFL predictions! In the past, I’ve done
team by team previews but this time you’ll only have to read one huge piece
that will go over records, stats, bets, and of course, playoff predictions.
2013 was the year of Peyton Manning until the Seahawks put on a dominating show
in the Super Bowl. Who do I think will still be playing in January for a chance
to win the Lombardi Trophy this time around? Let’s get right to it, with my
standings predictions.
AFC
West North South East
DEN 12-4 PIT 10-6 IND 11-5 NE 11-5
SD 10-6 BAL 9-7 TEN 8-8 NYJ 9-7
KC 6-10 CIN 8-8 HOU 7-9 MIA 8-8
OAK 4-12 CLE 5-11 JAC 5-11 BUF 6-10
NFC
West North South East
SEA 11-5 GB 11-5 NO 12-4 PHI 9-7
ARI 10-6 CHI 10-6 TB 8-8 WAS 8-8
SF 9-7 DET 9-7 ATL 7-9 NYG 7-9
STL 7-9 MIN 6-10 CAR 6-10 DAL 6-10
My playoff predictions will be at
the end of the post, but here are all my regular season projections for the 32
teams. Some notable results are a lot of the second place finishers in their
respective divisions: the Jets, Titans, Cardinals, Bucs, and Washington. The
Steelers and Saints are the only new division winners. A few teams that are one
year away from being competitive are Buffalo, St. Louis, Minnesota, and
Jacksonville. Keep an eye out for them in 2015.
Player Predictions
Arizona Cardinals: Many people are calling for the
breakout of Andre Ellington, but I think that Michael Floyd will make the
biggest leap this season, outperforming Larry Fitzgerald with 70+ receptions,
1,000 yards, and 7-8 TDs.
Atlanta Falcons: Paul Worrilow will finish top 5 in
tackles in the NFL.
Baltimore Ravens: Torrey Smith will have 75
receptions, 1,250 yards, and 8 touchdowns, while Justin Tucker leads the NFL in
field goals made.
Buffalo Bills: CJ Spiller tops 1,500 yards from
scrimmage, but Fred Jackson still has more TDs. Sammy Watkins, sure to be great
in the future, will have at most five touchdowns.
Carolina Panthers: D/ST in fantasy will drop out of
the top 10.
Chicago Bears: Matt Forte will fall just shy of
2,000 yards from scrimmage, and Jay Cutler will throw for less than 12
interceptions.
Cincinnati Bengals: No one besides AJ Green will
have more than 6 receiving TDs. Vontaze Burfict racks up over 150 tackles again.
Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel will start 8 games
this season. In those games, the Browns will be 3-5. Manziel: 13 pass TDs, 3
rush TDs, 11 turnovers.
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys will have the worst
defense. Ever. Therefore, Romo will throw for 4,200 yards and 30 TDs, 14 to Dez
Bryant.
Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning will NOT throw for
5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns again. 4,500 yards and 37 TDs sounds about right,
with 14 picks.
Detroit Lions: Joique Bell will have more rushes,
rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, and total TDs than Reggie Bush.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, and
Jordy Nelson all finish top 4 at their fantasy position this year. Lacy rushes
for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. Neither Clay Matthews nor Julius Peppers
will get to 10 sacks, but the Pack will lead the NFL in interceptions.
Houston Texans: Clowney and JJ Watt combine for 22
sacks. DeAndre Hopkins will have more TDs than Andre Johnson.
Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck throws for 4,000
yards, 28 touchdowns plus a couple of more rushing, and finishes third in the
MVP voting (but first in my heart).
Jacksonville Jaguars: The defense is ranked in the
top half of the league. Toby Gerhart rushes for 1,000 yards, and Blake Bortles
will lead this team to the playoffs within the next three years.
Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles regresses in
almost all of the significant statistics, and this team will have a turnover
margin of +5 or worse.
Miami Dolphins: Olivier Vernon will out-sack
Cameron Wake 11 to 9.
Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater starts at
least 4 games and will have twice as many TDs as INTs. Cordarrelle Patterson
will be the latest Norv Turner beneficiary, finishing with 72 receptions, 1,289
yards, and 10 total TD.
New England Patriots: Three-part prediction: Shane
Vareen leads all RB in receptions, and gets 1,200 total yards and 10 total TD;
Rob Gronkowski plays at least 14 games, and catches at least 14 TD; Chandler
Jones will lead the NFL in sacks and will finish in the top three of Defensive
Player of the Year voting (maybe even winning it!).
New Orleans Saints: Defense finishes in the top 5
overall and in turnovers forced. Mark Ingram will rush for 8 touchdowns.
New York Giants: Eli Manning will throw for less
than 15 interceptions but also less than 25 touchdowns. Reuben Randle leads the
team in TDs.
New York Jets: Geno Smith throws 22 TD and runs for
four more. Combined with under 15 turnovers and a top 5 defense, they make the
playoffs!
Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr will only win 4 games
as a starter but will prove he belongs with 20-25 touchdown passes. Rookie
Khalil Mack (from the UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO!!!!!!!!!!!!!) records double-digit
sacks.
Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Foles will not throw for
more than 27 touchdowns or less than 10 interceptions. Jordan Matthews will
have over 50 receptions and will be the number one receiver by next season.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Antonio Brown leads the NFL in
receptions, while Ryan Shazier wins defensive rookie of the year with over 130
tackles.
San Diego Chargers: Ladarius Green has more
receiving TDs than Antonio Gates, but not receptions or yardage. Keenan Allen
will almost replicate his rookie season, with about a 70-1,100-8 split.
San Francisco 49ers: Carlos Hyde finishes with more
TD than Vernon Davis (we’ll see if that’s a good or bad thing), Michael
Crabtree records 80 catches and 8 touchdowns, and the defense will fall out of
the top 8 or so.
Seattle Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch has one more year
of 1,200 and 12 in him, and Earl Thomas has more INTs than Richard Sherman.
Percy Harvin will not lead the team in any receiving categories.
St. Louis Rams: Defense will lead the league in
sacks and finish in the top 3 overall, but the offense will rank no better than
25th.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Doug Martin will not get to
700 rush yards or 5 touchdowns. The defense will be top seven and Lavonte David
will win Defensive Player of the Year in year one of Lovie Smith.
Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker, if healthy, will have
3,000 passing yards and 25 total TDs. Justin Hunter will lead the team in
receiving touchdowns.
Washington: Robert Griffin III will have 4,000
total yards and 25 touchdowns. Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson each have 1,000
yards and 5+ touchdowns. Future Pro Bowler: Trent Murphy, keep an eye out for
him.
Playoff Predictions
AFC
1st Round: New
York Jets 17, Indianapolis 27; San Diego 24, Pittsburgh 21
2nd Round: San
Diego 31, Denver 28; Indianapolis 27, New England 34
AFC Championship: San
Diego 20, New England 26
NFC
1st
Round: Arizona 13, Green Bay 27; Chicago 31, Philadelphia 30
2nd
Round: Chicago 24, New Orleans 34; Green Bay 24, Seattle 23
NFC
Championship: Green Bay 20, New Orleans 24
Super Bowl
New England 24, New Orleans 27
SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
I’ve been thinking it for months
now, and I’m sticking with my gut: the New Orleans Saints will win the Super
Bowl, giving Drew Brees his second ring. However, I think the defense will have
a much more important role than people realize. Cameron Jordan is a monster
pass rusher, and the they run out arguably the league’s best safety duo outside
of Seattle in Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd. They were already one of the best
units in the NFL, even without scoring a single touchdown on defense and
special teams last year. Drew Brees will have his usual historic season,
utilizing more outside speed this time around with Brandin Cooks and Kenny
Stills. Their regular season schedule is relatively easy, and I think being
able to secure home field in the daunting NFC is a HUGE advantage in making a
Super Bowl run. I think that the New Orleans Saints are the most complete team
in the NFL this year, and that’s why I think they will finish the season by
lifting the Lombardi Trophy.
Bets
I’ve saved the best section of the
predictions for last! Even though I’d be able to do it, I want to wait until I
start my career to actually put money down on these bets, but the following are
the wagers I’d consider making. Remember, many of these will be VALUE bets, not
necessarily what I think will definitely happen. So without further ado, here
are my favorite bets that I’ve found, courtesy of sportsbook.com.
·
Jordy Nelson
over 1400 receiving yards (+600)
·
Antonio Brown
over 100 yards receiving in at least 7 games (+800)
·
Drew Brees
throws for 300 yards every game (+12500!!!!!)
·
First Coach
Fired: Dennis Allen, OAK (+450)
·
Worst Team:
Dallas Cowboys (+1800) – If Romo’s back acts up…
·
Defensive
Player of the Year: Lavonte David (+2000), Earl Thomas (+3500), Chandler Jones
(dark horse)
·
Defensive
Rookie of the Year: Khalil Mack (+700), Ryan Shazier (+1000)
·
Offensive
Rookie of the Year: Jordan Matthews (+1200)
·
MVP: ANDREW
LUCK (+1500) – Think Rodgers (+500) will win
·
To Win the
Super Bowl: Saints (+1100), Colts (+2800) – Maybe Andrew Luck is just better
than everyone at football
·
Possible Super
Bowl Matchups: SAINTS vs. PATRIOTS (+2500!!!!!), Packers/Saints vs. Colts
(+8000)
That’s going to finally wrap up my
official 2014 NFL predictions post. I’ll be back soon to once again start my
weekly column of picking games with the point spread, a task I’ll hopefully
improve on from last year. To recap, here are the things you should be looking
for this football season: Denver and New Orleans will be the top seeds in each
conference; the Steelers, Jets, Cardinals, and Bears will be the new teams in
the playoffs; things to watch out for in the future: Jordan Matthews, Trent
Murphy, the Jags with Blake Bortles; the breakouts of Shazier, Patterson, and
Chandler Jones; the semi-breakouts of Michael Floyd, DeAndre Hopkins, and Shane Vareen; Before losing to the Saints in the NFC Championship, Aaron Rodgers
will play the game of his life in Seattle to take down the Seahawks; My big
sleeper pick: look for the Chargers to make the AFC Championship Game! I don’t
know why I agree with Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal on this, but it feels right.
I may hate them, but the Patriots will be great this year, especially Vareen,
Gronk, Jones, and Revis; and, of course, the New Orleans Saints will be your
Super Bowl Champions. Enjoy the season!
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