Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

We’ve finally made it. Tonight, a champion will be crowned, and another team will be added to the immortal ranks of Super Bowl winners. After a wild season, the final chapter of 2013 in the NFL will not be shocking, no matter the result of the game. The Broncos and the Seahawks were the two best teams in their respective conferences all year long, and their clash will provide us with nothing short of a powerhouse duel. A historic offense will will try to defeat a terrifying defense, although people seem to forget that only accounts for half the game. But with respect to Seattle’s offense and Denver’s defense, the most captivating part of this battle will be, of course, Peyton Manning trying to figure out Richard Sherman and the relentless D of the Seahawks. Every aspect of this game will be accounted for in this preview, including my pick, statistical predictions, and my favorite prop bets, but first a few thoughts about the Conference Championship Games.

On the AFC side, Denver dominated New England. There’s no simpler way to say it. They had the ball forever, they could run and pass at will, and Peyton Manning rarely missed a throw. The Broncos’ defense held Tom Brady to three points until the fourth quarter, including shutting down the running game that had yielded SIX touchdowns for the Pats the week before. One important note about this game: I didn’t think the Welker hit on Aqib Talib was a dirty play. People are only whining about it because Talib was sidelines afterward, which did, admittedly, impact the rest of the game; did you see Demaryius Thomas go off right after that? But Welker’s play wasn’t as dirty as people made it out to seem. He did make a surprisingly hard hit for a wide receiver, but it was a pick play, and football is a physical sport. I wouldn’t have minded if it was called a penalty, but it would have been for offensive pass interference, NOT unnecessary roughness. Either way, the Broncos dismantled the Patriots and deserve to be here.

The 49ers-Seahawks game lived up to the hype and exceeded it. This was as close a perfect game of football as you can get. Each team was physical and determined from the opening kick, and every moment of all four quarters was thrilling. Kaepernick ran wild; Marshawn Lynch went Beast Mode; Kaep had a ridiculous jump-throw to Boldin for a TD; Wilson followed that up with a gorgeous 4th and 7 strike to Kearse to take the lead; NaVorro Bowman gave his knee trying to make a play; and in the end, Richard Sherman had the last laugh with an incredible play. The final score was 23-17, a defensive struggle that also saw its share of scoring thanks to some dynamic plays. Kaepernick, although he did play a hell of a game, did finish it off with fumble-interception-interception on his final three drives in a one-score game, something that did make me very happy. However, much respect has to be given to him and San Francisco as a team; although they haven’t won the Super Bowl, they have made the NFC title game (or beyond) for three consecutive years, which is a phenomenal achievement in a league that is supposed to have parity. And of course, I have one final thought about what everyone was talking about: the Richard Sherman outburst, while shocking, was completely overblown. Did he handle that moment the way you would want your child to handle it? No. But confidence is what he is about; he will never shy away from anything, and two minutes beforehand he made the play to send his team to the Super Bowl. After three hours of battling the team and specifically player (Crabtree) that he has a huge rivalry with. He is not a bad person, a thug, or any term you wish to use. He is arrogant, but if that is someone’s worst quality, is it really so much of a problem? Speaking of arrogance, let me show off some of the predictions I had for this game. The first numbers will be my guesses, followed by the actual results.

Wilson: 16-24, 202 yds, TD, fumble; 16-25, 215 yds, TD, fumble

Kaepernick: 14-26, 176 yds, TD, 2 INT; 14-24, 153 yds, TD, 2 INT

Final Score: SEA 24-17; SEA 23-17

Let’s just say I’m coming into the Super Bowl on a roll. And now, onto the big game.

I’ve thought about a lot of ways how to do this, because I want to throw a lot of different predictions about this game into my preview. Although I wanted to leave some suspense for the end before revealing my pick, I figure that all my stat and prop predictions would make a lot more sense if you already knew the big picture. So, without further ado, here is my pick for Super Bowl XLVIII...

SEA vs DEN (-2.5) - That’s right, I think the DENVER BRONCOS will win the Super Bowl tonight, in the absolutely incredible battle that everyone is hoping it will be. Historically, logic says you should pick the number one DEFENSE over the number one offense, but I’m not making this pick with my head. I picked Denver to win it all before the season, but more importantly, Peyton Manning has been my favorite football player for 10 years now, and I would want more than anything for him to win his second ring. If the Seahawks do win, I’ll be disappointed, but not angry; I still do like Seattle a lot, and would be fine if they won, so long as it wasn’t the Patriots or 49ers hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Peyton Manning has owned the season ever since christening it with seven touchdowns on opening night. He just won his FIFTH MVP award, after setting records for passing yards, passing touchdowns, and points scored in a single season. The line on this one is only two and a half points (although a real argument could be made that Seattle should be favored), which made it easy for me to pick them to cover as well. So now that you know you I’m picking to win, I’ll give you all my other predictions right now, and cap it all off with a recap later. Go Broncos! Seattle 20, Denver 27

Stats

Manning: 26-41, 303 yds, 2 TD, INT

Wilson: 18-32, 223 yds, TD, INT, 18 rush yds

Moreno: 18 rush, 71 yds, TD, 3 rec, 14 yds, TD

Lynch: 25 rush, 87 yds, TD

D Thomas: 5 rec, 72 yds, TD

Decker: 6 rec, 107 yds

Welker: 4 rec, 46 yds, 3 third down conversions

J Thomas: 3 rec, 22 yds

Baldwin: 6 rec, 82 yds

Tate: 5 rec, 66 yds

Harvin: 2 rec, 18 yds

Kearse: 2 rec, 31 yds, TD

Prater: 2/2 FG, 31 and 49

Hauschka: 2/2 FG, 26 and 35

Here are my offensive statistical predictions for you, as defense is too random to guess for specific players. However, I will say that Manning’s interception will NOT be made by any of the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom secondary; it will come on either A) a tipped-up ball by a defensive lineman, or B) a linebacker that showed blitz but dropped into coverage. Richard Sherman will be limited because the Broncos will move Thomas around so it won’t be one-on-one the whole night; the man in the secondary to watch is Earl Thomas, a just-as-talented-but-much-quieter safety. As far as the receivers go, I think Demaryius Thomas will get in the end zone tonight, but not have the best statistical performance on the team because he will be shadowed by the aforementioned Sherman throughout. I think the best bet out of the Denver receivers to get to 100 yards is Decker, who hasn’t had a huge playoff performance yet. I think Percy Harvin will be a relative non-factor for the Seahawks, along with the weather everyone has been so obsessed with, although he will be used as a decoy. Each of these teams has a superb rush defense, which is why I think both main running backs will be held under 100 yards in this game--this is a much bigger deal for Seattle, as so much of their offensive success comes from running the ball. Even though I have Lynch getting into the end zone, I think he fails to hit triple digits and is held under four yards a carry. Moreno will have the same limited success against the vaunted front seven of the ‘Hawks, but I do think he finds the end zone twice, once on the ground and the other in the air, which would have made him a great pick for MVP if it wasn’t destined to go to Manning in the event of a Denver victory. As for the QBs, I think Wilson, for as great as he’s been in two years, will be a little rattled out of the gate. He’ll be off-target the first time he’s faced with a third and long. He is a very poised and confident young man, but this is quite a big stage, and I think he struggles in the first quarter before turning it on in the second half. And now to Peyton. I think that he will have a little trouble figuring out Seattle’s secondary, but he’s too good to stop forever. He throws it enough times to get to 300 yards, but will turn it over once. He will have exactly two touchdowns, the first to Thomas, and the second to Moreno late in the fourth quarter to break a 20-20 tie and win the game. But more on that later.

Props

This is the very fun part of making Super Bowl predictions: prop bets! You can bet on anything from the length of the National Anthem, the result of the coin toss, what color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach, and who the Super Bowl MVP will thank first in his speech. I’m going to go through my favorites, some important and some just for fun.

1. UNDER 47.5 points: I think this will be a relatively low scoring game, like the SF-SEA game a couple of weeks ago. My predicted score was 27-20, giving us 47, but that is the absolute highest I think the score can go. Seattle will score around 20, but as good as Peyton is, I don’t think he gets to 30 against this defense. Under 47.5 is the way to go here, especially since both teams like to extend drives and eat up clock on their possessions.
2. Percy Harvin UNDER 3.5 receptions (+135): I don’t think he’ll be a big factor tonight.
3. Knowshon Moreno WILL score a touchdown (+110), or even better, Moreno to score the LAST touchdown (+800)
4. Eric Decker OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115), and between 101-110 (+1500)
5. Virgil Green will have AT LEAST ONE reception (+120): Cousin Sal talked about this on the BS Report will Bill Simmons last week, and I think this one comes true.
6. Doug Baldwin +15.5 receiving yards vs Wes Welker (-105): I think he’ll have more straight up, and he’s getting 16 yards against a short yardage receiver facing a suffocating D?
7. Super Bowl MVP: obviously, I would say Peyton Manning (+110), because I think he’s going to win, but some value bets are Moreno (+1700), Lynch (+450), and how about Trindon Holliday (+8000) in case there is special teams magic?
8. ORANGE (+275) or RED (+750) for the color of the Gatorade bath.
9. Jermaine Kearse OVER 11.5 yards on first catch (+110): Because this was the only Kearse prop I could find.
10. Peyton Manning passing yards between 301-320 (+800): I think by volume and the plethora of weapons around him, Manning barely eclipses 300 yards, putting a nice bow on a Super Bowl victory.

So if you are going to bet (my 21st birthday is on Wednesday, so I’ll be very excited for next year’s props), these are the wagers that I would target. Prop bets are a lot of fun, because you get to sit there with your family and friends shouting things like “GET OFF YOUR ASS, VIRGIL GREEN!”, or if you’re feeling really bold and unpatriotic, “HURRY UP WITH THE ANTHEM I NEED IT TO BE UNDER 139.5 SECONDS!”, or you get completely obsessed with how many times Peyton Manning yells the word “Omaha!” -- for the record, if I made this bet, I would go with the UNDER 28.5 (+105)...but if you do any of these things you probably have a gambling problem.

So there you have it, my Super Bowl XLVIII predictions. I’m picking the Denver Broncos to defeat the Seattle Seahawks 27-20, giving Peyton Manning his second ring. The game will be tied 3-3 after the first quarter before Manning hits Demaryius Thomas for a TD in the second; after that, Lynch will get his score, and the half will close on a Matt Prater field goal (13-10). The Seahawks will burst out in the second half with the Wilson TD to Kearse, the Manning interception, and Hauschka field goal giving Seattle a 20-13 lead. But in the late 3rd/early 4th quarter, Moreno will punch one in to tie the game, and after a Seattle punt after failing to convert on 3rd and 3 from the Denver 48, Manning will drive the Broncos 91 yards in 13 plays, hitting Knowshon Moreno out of the backfield for the game-winning 11 yard touchdown with 2:13 to go. Russell Wilson will give his best effort to come back, but his fourth down hail mary from midfield will fall incomplete, and the game will end. So it is written, so let it be done.

I mentioned this before, but the one aspect of this game that people aren’t giving much thought, and understandably so, is the matchup between the Seattle offense and Denver defense. The sexy matchup is Peyton vs the Legion of Boom, but on the other side of the ball, I think the Broncos have an advantage. The ‘Hawks main strength offensively is the running game, which Denver has been great against, especially in the playoffs against the Chargers and Patriots. I think that while the Seattle defense is terrific, there’s a very slim chance that Peyton will not still put up 24-27 points. So the question is, can Russell Wilson match that? I don’t think so. Lynch is good for a touchdown, but I think he gets held under 100 yards, which means that a majority of the points are going to have to be supplied by the second-year QB. He only threw for 250 or more yards four times this season, including the playoffs, and the last time he did so was December 2nd against the Saints, two months ago. That is also the last game he threw multiple touchdown passes. He has done just enough to win games with a loaded roster around him, and while I think he does have the talent and intangibles to win games, if he wants to win THIS particular game, he’s going to have to do more than just manage the offense. He’s going toe to toe with Peyton Manning to win a championship, so he’s going to have to put up 250 yards and 2 TDs if he wants to win. Even with Von Miller out, the Denver Broncos have a very underrated defense, and although they struggle most against the pass, that isn’t what the Seahawks are built for. To me, that was the deciding factor to pick the Broncos. If Peyton and the Seattle D play to a stalemate, I give the edge to Denver’s D than Seattle’s offense. Two things could prove me wrong: Wilson scrambling around and rushing for 75-100 yards, or Percy Harvin providing the firepower that has been lacking. But I’ll take my chances.

Finally, I want to end with Peyton Manning. He’s been my favorite football player since I was a kid, and there’s so much talk about his legacy, which is understandable, albeit annoying. Whether he wins or loses this game, it won’t prove that he can or can’t win big games in the playoffs. It’s his third time to the Super Bowl, which is three more than most players get to play in, and this game is basically a toss-up. Arguments can be made that by winning this game, Manning could officially become the “Greatest Quarterback Ever”, whatever that means to you. You can’t really compare the likes of Manning, Brady, Montana, Elway, Unitas, Marino, etc. If you think Super Bowl rings are the most important, than Montana and Bradshaw are on the top of your list; if you value statistical records, than Brett Favre is your guy. There will never be an answer to who is the best QB ever, but I think that I would not be out-of-bounds to say this: I think that Peyton Manning is the most talented quarterback ever. He is the perfect blend of size, power, accuracy, and especially brains. He is the smartest athlete I have ever seen, he is a Super Bowl champion, and by the time he retires he will be either first or second in the record books for almost every meaningful quarterbacking statistic. If you are constructing a hypothetical perfect quarterback based on the skills you think are most important, you’re taking more of Peyton to be in that guy than anyone else. That is my stance on his legacy, whether or not he wins this game tonight. There may not ever be an answer to who is the greatest, but if I could pick any QB in the history of the NFL to lead my team to victory in a vacuum, I’m taking Peyton.

I hope you liked this piece and read my weekly picks over the course of the season. I poured a lot of emotion into my football picks, so I appreciate it if you’ve made it this far. Enjoy the game everybody. Long live Peyton Manning.