2013 New England Patriots Preview

2013 New England Patriots

The 2013 New England Patriots offense looks very different from the one we were enamored with in 2012. Wes Welker has left to join his team’s number one nemesis for the last decade (Peyton Manning in Denver); Rob Gronkowski, for such an imposing frame, has turned out to be quite fragile over his first few years in the NFL and could miss multiple games if he does not recover properly; we all know the story about Aaron Hernandez, whose main focus now has transitioned from not dropping footballs to not dropping the soap; finally, New England finds itself smack in the middle of TEBOWMANIA!!!!!!! (Note: I’m actually glad he went to the Pats. Now we won’t have to hear about him on ESPN 24/7). Of course, as long as the core of Belichick and Brady are leading the way in Foxborough, New England will always be one of the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl. The running game in New England is also vastly underrated, mainly because people don’t realize exactly how many plays the Pats run over the course of the season, and how many times they pound it in the red zone. With Brady’s main targets (Hernandez, Welker, maybe Gronk) departed for the forseeable future, I see a huge season coming for Stevan Ridley at RB, as well as a very nice year out of Shane Vareen who will be used in a variety of ways. One thing is certain about the Patriots: even though the parts have been changed, the offense will still be high-octane and a force of nature. The obvious question is how the receiving corps will step in; the outside men of Amendola and Edelman (slot, mostly), and rookie Aaron Dobson hardly strike fear into opposing defensive coordinators. Even though production should decline, Belichick will find ways to incorporate his new toys to put them in the best scenario to succeed. The defense, meanwhile, is overlooked which is understandable, but is a very solid group. Their pass defense is atrocious overall, but they forced enough turnovers last year to counteract that deficiency. Whether or not the secondary can repeat that is debatable, as one of the most volatile statistics in the game is turnover margin. The front seven is monstrous and hungry; New England will trot out Chandler Jones (who could easily break out), Vince Wilfork (a behemoth), Donta Hightower, Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo, and Rob Ninkovich among others, any of whom have enough talent to be named Pro Bowlers. Ninkovich is especially frustrating to deal with, as he’s one of those guys who can sense the right time to attack, and will make a huge play while the fate of the game is resting the balance (ex: up by four, two minutes left, gets a sack-fumble to ice the game). He’s the perfect role player who is good at a variety of dimensions of the game, like the Shane Battier of football. I still think the New England Patriots are the class of the AFC East, and I will keep picking them to win the division until I see them fall. Also, I can’t believe how much praise I’m giving this team right now. I still hate them, don’t worry.

Schedule

Last year the Patriots grabbed the number two seed in the AFC and was rewarded with a first round bye even though that spot was viciously choked away by the Houston Texans who started the year 11-1. They won 12 games last year (and have succeeded every year) based on several factors: they are second half warriors, they rarely lose at home, and they also rarely lose back to back games. This season, however, could prove very challenging for them, as in addition to having a slightly depleted offense, they face arguably the AFC’s four toughest defenses: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Denver, and Houston. The Pats must endure the gauntlets that are the AFC North and NFC South as their two full divisional matchups, and have to travel to Atlanta, Houston, and Baltimore. Let’s take a look at the games and try to project their win total.

Week 1: W at BUF (will be surprisingly close; one possession)

Week 2: W vs NYJ

Week 3: L vs TB

Week 4: L at ATL

Week 5: L at CIN

Week 6: W vs NO

Week 7: W at NYJ

Week 8: W vs MIA

Week 9: L vs PIT

Week 10: Bye

Week 11: W at CAR

Week 12: L vs DEN (Brady vs Manning, return of Welker...can’t wait!)

Week 13: W at HOU (they have the Texans figured out)

Week 14: W vs CLE

Week 15: W at MIA (like I said previously: they will want to shut the Dolphins up)

Week 16: L at BAL (the Ravens know how to beat this team)

Week 17: W vs BUF

I have the 2013 New England Patriots finishing at 10-6, which is not up to their usual standard, but will be plenty enough to win the division with an adjusted passing game. The big question mark here is the health of Rob Gronkowski, because if he is on the field, he will make all the other lesser receivers open. I feel that 10 wins is a fair amount. Some observations: first, they won’t beat the toughest defenses this year, including the games against Tampa Bay (#1 rush D last year, adds Revis to sure up secondary) and Cincinnati on the road (whose defense is simply swarming). They will absolutely smoke their divisional rivals, and I can’t wait until Belichick toys with the Jets by having Tebow score like four touchdowns against them in their two battles. 10-6 will most likely ensure New England a top four seed, but not a first round bye, meaning that the Pats will have to host an opening weekend game in the playoffs. Also, like I said, I expect Ridley to have a monster year. That doesn’t mean Brady will suck, but like, who is he going to throw any touchdowns to? Even if you spot Gronk 10, he would still need 20 between Vareen, Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, and others to barely get to 30. But even if he doesn’t get as many scores through the air, I expect him to still be the Golden Boy. And as long as Bernard Karmell Pollard doesn’t get traded by the Titans to a team on the Patriots’ schedule, all the Pats and their trainers and agents should be able to sleep easy.

Bold Prediction: Steven Ridley will lead the NFL in rushing TDs with 14, to go along with 1,300+ yards