NFL Week 9 Preview

Week 9 Preview

This is virtually the halfway point of the season, with a majority of teams playing their 8th game this week. Playoff pictures are starting to pan out, and there are several surprising contenders making a push (see MIA vs IND). It is also desperation time for many teams out there, which make for some very intriguing match-ups over the weekend. Tampa Bay vs Oakland and Philadelphia vs New Orleans are two examples are each team needing a victory in order to keep their season alive. Fun fact: I picked Cleveland to finish with the worst record in the NFL this year, and while there are a few teams trying their best to make sure I’m wrong (looking at you, Kansas City), I am 8-8 in picking their games this year. I had them beating the Bengals for their first win, and if you look back at my Cleveland Browns preview, I actually had them beating the Chargers back in the preseason. So if you want to bet on a game, listen to what I say about the Browns!!! Let’s look at this week’s games. After struggling last week, hopefully I’m due for a strong performance.

KC vs SD (-8.5) - A battle of underachieving AFC West teams who both stink. Did you know that the Chiefs have not led for a single second for the ENTIRE SEASON?!?!?! How can someone possibly be that bad? Their one win was on a field goal in overtime, so that’s still no time leading. The Chargers, as predicted, are in nap mode. This game is on a short week. How many ways are there to say ugly? I’m taking the Chargers by default but not by 9 points. It will probably be a 6-7 point game. All I really care about is that Bowe and Gates have pretty good games. This is one of those “the only reason this game matters is for fantasy” games. Kansas City 20, San Diego 26.

DEN vs CIN (+3.5) - Peyton Manning has been my favorite player for ten years and that is not stopping because he’s in a new uniform. He has been MVP-like so far, and I expect that to continue. The Bengals just aren’t a great team. The Broncos are looking more and more like they are going to be the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. I’m not ready to go there yet, but they are improving every game. I’ll take Peyton comfortably, but not in a blowout. Denver 27, Cincinnati 16.

BAL vs CLE (+3.5) - Apparently I am a Browns expert. And I think this game will be close. But not close enough. One possession win for Baltimore coming off a bye. That defense needs to get sured up though, they got really bad really fast. Trent Richardson is the real deal. Baltimore 23, Cleveland 17.

ARI vs GB (-10.5) - There’s a new rule I’m abiding by when picking games: NEVER take the Pack to cover a huge spread. I took the Jags and the points last week and I was right on that one. Green Bay is being spotted 10 points and although they are at home, the Cardinals have a pretty good defense and might be able to move the ball this week. The Packers will win, but I’m betting against them with the points here. Arizona 17, Green Bay 27.

CHI vs TEN (+3.5) - I picked this upset preseason. I had the Titans upsetting the Lions earlier this year from preseason and picked against them, but Tennessee ended up winning that game. I haven’t learned my lesson yet. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. So if I get this wrong, I’ll learn never to bet against myself when picking the Titans at home ever again. I’ve been pushing the Bears for months now, and I’m not stopping here. There are three things certain in life: death, taxes, and Cutler to Marshall. Actually there is a fourth: Bears D getting a pick 6. Chicago 27, Tennessee 17.

MIA vs IND (+2.5) - Raise your hand if you had the Dolphins and Colts both sitting at 4-3 coming into Week 9 when the season started. What a coincidence, I don’t see any hands. Both teams are sporting their successful rookie quarterbacks and the winner of this game will be 5-3, and actually have an inside track to the playoffs. What’s even more surprising to me, is how Ryan Tannehill is favored on the road against Andrew Luck! What??? The Dolphins are sneakily good, but Indy is just too strong in their dome. Miami 24, Indianapolis 27.

CAR vs WAS (-3.5) - The Cam Newton bandwagon didn’t last very long, did it? I thought this team would be a playoff contender, but they have really fallen off track. From top to bottom, this has been an unsuccessful franchise since they made the Super Bowl ten years ago, except for the one year they made the NFC Championship Game. RGIII is the new craze, and I think he outplays Cam in this one. The difference is going to be the running game. Carolina 16, Washington 21.

DET vs JAC (+3.5) - UPSET SPECIAL. I only got one of these right last week but overall this season, by upset picks have been pretty spot on, either winning outright or at least beating the spread. The Jags played pretty tough in Green Bay last week and I don’t like the Lions on the road. They will neutralize Megatron, and I think that Jacksonville’s offense will be good enough to score some points. Detroit 17, Jacksonville 20.

BUF vs HOU (-10.5) - History has proven that I hate big spreads. I rarely pick the favorite in these scenarios. However...the Bills can’t stop the run and the Texans live on exactly that. Arian Foster gets 167 and 2 TD. The Bills have given up 45 points multiple times this season, and I smell a blowout here. Buffalo 16, Houston 34.

TB vs OAK (-1.5) - Both of these teams are 3-4 and have had some impressive performances this season. The loser will virtually be out of playoff contention, while the winner will be sitting at .500 with a shot at the postseason. I’ll take the Raiders because they are at home. And that’s the only reason. This is the definition of a straight-up pick’em game. No result would surprise me. Tampa Bay 21, Oakland 24.

MIN vs SEA (-4.5) - Another desperation game! The loser of this battle will not make the playoffs, and while the winner might not either, whoever comes out on top is going to have a winning record. The Seahawks are lethal at home, and I do think they are going to win this game, but this is a tough spread to work with. I’m going to play with fire here: Seattle wins, but either by 3 or 4, which means I’m taking the Vikings and the points. And the Seahawks do go on to make the playoffs. Minnesota 16, Seattle 19.

PIT vs NYG (-3.5) - There’s an annoying amount of 3.5 point spreads this week, which is a nightmare for betting. This game is a heavyweight match-up between two quarterbacks drafted in 2004 who each have 2 Super Bowl rings and are fantastic at converting third downs and are efficient in the fourth quarter. The difference in this one? Still no Polamalu. Giants are on a roll, and they will not let another 23-point lead get away from them again. Pittsburgh 22, New York 27.

DAL vs ATL (-4.5) - This game sucks. I hate both these teams. I want the Falcons to lose so that they are not undefeated, but the Cowboys don’t know how to win close games, which is what Atlanta has been doing all season. Throw in the fact that the Falcons are almost unbeatable at home, and you have a recipe for a blowout. But there’s no way this is an easy win. Dallas might not win many games, but they have enough talent to always hang around, and I think this game will be decided by single digits. Unfortunately for Big D, I think it will be somewhere between 5-9. So the Falcons cover and move to 8-0, and Dallas loses again. Dallas 24, Atlanta 30.

PHI vs NO (-3.5) - I’ve talked a lot about desperation games for this week, and this one is the mother of them all, a shootout on Monday Night. The Eagles are 3-4 and are potentially just one loss away from benching Michael Vick and firing Andy Reid. Meanwhile, the Saints are 2-5 and have been deeply affected by the bounty punishments. If they lose then their season is over; no way they climb out of a 2-6 hole. This one will be very high scoring with neither team wanting to give up. And I like the team that owns the Superdome. The Eagles have one shot of turning their season around: FREE SHADY. This season, Philly is 3-0 when McCoy has 20+ carries, and 0-4 when he has less than that. Those numbers are similar throughout his career. Yet Andy Reid refuses to feed his stud. It’s so frustrating to watch. I think that the Eagles will try throwing too much, and in a shootout, Michael Vick can’t beat Drew Brees. The chaos for the Eagles will continue. Philadelphia 27, New Orleans 38.