Official 2012-2013 NBA Predictions

Official 2012-2013 NBA Predictions

It is the eve of the tip off of the 2012-2013 NBA regular season, and this is the most anticipated year there has been in the Association in a long time. There are fascinating headlines everywhere you look, from the high and mighty Miami Heat, to the lowly Charlotte Bobcats. I did my conference standings already, so this preview is going to be for everything else: awards, breakout players, and, of course, playoff predictions. We’re going to have a full 82 game season this year, which means even more exciting basketball. So, without further ado, let’s get it started.

Playoff Teams

Western Conference

1. San Antonio Spurs: 58-24. People have been calling this team too old for years, but they just keep on winning. Deepest team, top to bottom.
2. Los Angeles Lakers: 56-26. The arrivals of Steve Nash and Dwight Howard will make this a formidable team, but age and lack of depth will prevent them from rising to the top. But when they start clicking, they are loaded.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder: 54-28. I had this team at #1 before the Harden trade. Still will be very competitive, but no longer in the top 2. No MVP for Durant yet.
4. Denver Nuggets: 53-29. A lot of talk about the 4th best team in the West, and I think the Nuggets make that leap. They are deep, young, fast, and talented. Love this team.
5. Los Angeles Clippers: 52-30. A lot of talent on this team, but I think this team is a little too flashy and lacks substance. #1 in highlights, but still #5 in West.
6. Memphis Grizzlies: 50-32. Memphis rounds out the power six of the Western Conference. They have a great starting five, but their one weakness is lack of outside shooting. They can give any team a run for their money though.
7. Utah Jazz: 47-35. Huge up front, with Millsap, Jefferson, Favors, and Kanter. Rumors are one of the starting big men will be traded, and I’ve got my money on Millsap. Not enough guard play yet to vault into second tier.
8. Phoenix Suns: 44-38. It will be another battle for the 8 seed, and I think it will come down to the Suns vs the Warriors. Phoenix may lack a star, but they have a lot of quality role players, who I think will be able gel together nicely. Dragic Nation.

Eastern Conference

1. Miami Heat: 58-24. The only question on this team will be whether or not they can get to 60. I say no. But they are absolutely the favorites to repeat.
2. Boston Celtics: 55-27. This team is the biggest threat to Miami in the East. They are deeper this year, and Rondo is a legit MVP candidate.
3. Indiana Pacers: 54-28. This group broke out last year, and I don’t sense a decline. The success of this team rests on the maturation of Paul George, a star-in-making.
4. New York Knicks: 52-30. Yes, the Knicks. I know. It seems like they always get in their own way of success. Melo is due for a career year in my opinion, and the health of Amare is a question, but that would free up Melo for PF, where he thrives.
5. Philadelphia 76ers: 51-31. Big trade getting Bynum for AI in the Howard deal. Underrated team, I really like Evan Turner this year to break out.
6. Chicago Bulls: 46-36. The loss of Derrick Rose is horrible obviously but this team plays too good defense to not be in the top 8. Watch for Luol Deng.
7. Brooklyn Nets: 44-38. Not blown away by this team. Not a D-Will fan. Gerald Wallace needs to play big. Absolutely a playoff team, not the best team in NY. Yet.
8. Milwaukee Bucks: 42-40. Another exciting race for 8th, and I am beginning to Fear the Deer! Jennings and Ellis make a dangerous backcourt, I really like Ilyasova, and Dalembert is a good interior defender. They finally break through.

Breakouts and Dropoffs

Team Stock Up: DEN, PHX, GS, PHI, MIL, CLE

Team Stock Down: OKC, DAL, HOU, CHI, ATL, ORL

Teams Most Likely to Underachieve: LAC, BRK

Teams Most Likely to Overachieve: PHX, NYK

Dark Horse Lottery Team to Make Playoff Push: POR, TOR

Breakout Players: K. Leonard, K. Faried, E. Bledsoe, G. Hayward, G. Dragic, K. Thompson, any young HOU player, E. Turner, E. Ilyasova, K. Lowry, K. Walker

Dropoff Players: R. Gay, P. Millsap, D. Nowitzki, K. Humphries, D. Harris, J. Kidd

Studs Who Become Stars: S. Ibaka, T. Lawson, P. George, K. Irving, G. Monroe

Good Fresh Starts: A. Iguodala, M. Williams, M. Beasley, J. Terry, A. Jamison

Awards

MVP - It’s probably going to be LeBron. I don’t want it him to win again. He’s won 3 out of 4 and his numbers aren’t going to get worse, so maybe the voters will get bored. I had KD winning when I thought they were #1 in the West, but after the Harden deal I have them 3rd. So now, I’ll call on my dark horse....Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS.

Coach of the Year - George Karl edges out Doug Collins in a tight race.

Sixth Man of the Year: No more Harden in the running, so I’m taking Jason Terry. Big year in Bean Town, he’ll fill in nicely for Ray Ray.

Comeback Player of the Year - If he can stay healthy...the obvious pick here is Brandon Roy. I’m not sure if he can, so if I had a backup pick, I would take Jeff Green (another Celtic, what a surprise). Another strong candidate for this award is Chauncey Billups.

Rookie of the Year: Jared Sullinger! Just kidding, no more Celtics...the easy pick is Anthony Davis, but I don’t want to take the easy way out. So I’m going to select Damian Lillard, PG, POR. I think Bradley Beal will be in the race as well, but Lillard’s team will finish with a better record.

Most Improved Player: The guy I’ve been highest on is Evan Turner, SG/SF, PHI. He was a number two pick and now he can be the man on the wing with AI gone. Also watch out for Klay Thompson and Kenneth Faried. That’s my top 3.

Defensive Player of the Year: I don’t like favorites (Howard), I don’t like repeats (Chandler), and I do like players who have performed that are due for acknowledgement. Therefore...Serge Ibaka, step on down.

League Leaders Per Game (Top 5, in order, with Dark Horse)

Scoring: KD, Carmelo, Kobe, LeBron, Kevin Love (DH: Aldridge)

Assists: Rondo, Nash, Paul, Parker, D-Will (DH: Conley Jr)

Rebounds: Love, Howard, Cousins, Noah, Bynum (DH: Gortat)

Blocks: Ibaka, Asik, McGee, Davis, Hibbert (DH: Biyombo)

Technical Fouls: Cousins, Chandler, Griffin, Bynum, Perkins (DH: Noah)

Playoff Predictions

Western Conference

First Round

                                        8 PHX   1 5 LAC     2 6 MEM    3       7 UTA   1 

                                       1 SA       4 4 DEN    4 3 OKC      4       2 LAL    4

Second Round

                                                    4 DEN      4 3 OKC     3

                                                    1 SA          2 2 LAL      4

Conference Finals

4 DEN     3

2 LAL      4

Western Conference Champions: Los Angeles Lakers

Eastern Conference

First Round

                                       8 MIL    1 5 PHI     3 6 CHI     4       7 BRK     1

                                      1 MIA    4 4 NYK    4 3 IND     2       2 BOS     4

Second Round

                                                      4 NYK     1 6 CHI     2

                                                     1 MIA      4 2 BOS    4

Conference Finals

2 BOS     3

1 MIA     4

Eastern Conference Champions: Miami Heat

NBA Finals

2 LAL     4

1 MIA     2

NBA Champions: Los Angeles Lakers

Recap of Playoff Predictions

So there you go, I have the Los Angeles Lakers defeating the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals this year. The Lakers-Heat matchup is a front-running pick, which I usually hate. However, the Lakers are the most talented team in the West, and I’m a little biased because I want Steve Nash to win a ring more than anything. In the East, I would love if the Celtics dethroned the Heat, but I don’t see it. I think it will once again, though, be a 7-game Conference Finals. Also, a Lakers-Heat match-up is what everyone wants to see; it is the ultimate battle of star power. On one side, you have Kobe Bryant trying to win his 6th ring, tying him with MJ, alongside two ringless, hungry superstars in Nash and Howard. On the other side, Miami is trying to repeat and start a dynasty with their controversial Big Three, also solidifying LeBron James’s place as the best player in the game. I have a couple of upsets in store: Denver beating San Antonio in the second round, and Chicago over Indiana in the first round. I think that the Nuggets will be able to run up and down the floor on the Spurs, and the Bulls pick is going on the basis that Derrick Rose will be back in the starting line-up by that time. Similar to Terrell Suggs’ early return as why I picked the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl this year. I think that the loss of James Harden is going to cost the Oklahoma City Thunder a title shot this year. They can still give LA a run for their money, but I don’t think they have the star power anymore to compete with the Lakers. The Knicks can get to the second round this year, but I still think that if they get matched up with Miami they would lose badly. Kobe Bryant will be the NBA Finals MVP, averaging over 25 points per game. The weaknesses for the Heat are PG and C, and Steve Nash and Dwight Howard will be able to expose those flaws. Now I’ll close with some bold predictions.

Bold Predictions (one per team)

1. ATL - Al Horford will be the best C in the Eastern Conference this year.
2. BOS - Rajon Rondo will win the NBA MVP award.
3. BRK - Brook Lopez leads the Nets in scoring with 21 points per game.
4. CHA - The Bobcats will triple their win total from last season and win the lottery.
5. CHI - Derrick Rose will play at least 25 games this season (including playoffs).
6. CLE - Kyrie Irving will be the starting PG for the East in the All-Star Game.
7. DAL - The Mavs do not make the playoffs and will not have a 20-point scorer.
8. DEN - The Nuggets will be in the Western Conference Finals.
9. DET - Greg Monroe will average 20-10 this year.
10. GS - Klay Thompson will finish in the top 2 on the team in scoring.
11. HOU - Jeremy Lin will average 14-7 but shoot under 40% from the floor.
12. IND - Paul George will average 16 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast, 1.5 stl, and 1.3 3’s per game.
13. LAC - Blake Griffin will have a higher FG% than FT%.
14. LAL - Steve Nash will average 14-11 and will shoot 50-40-90 percentage splits.
15. MEM - Mike Conley Jr will have 9 assists per game this season.
16. MIA - D-Wade will only score 18 ppg but average 5+ reb and ast per game.
17. MIL - The Bucks will make the playoffs, Jennings and Ellis score 20 ppg each.
18. MIN - Ricky Rubio only plays in 45 games this year with only 7 apg.
19. NO - Anthony Davis’s stat line: 14 pts, 8 reb, 2.2 blks per game.
20. NYK - Carmelo Anthony scores 27 points per game, 2nd in the NBA.
21. OKC - KD wins his 4th straight scoring title with 28.6 ppg but still no MVP.
22. ORL - The Magic will have the worst record in the NBA but will NOT win the lottery.
23. PHI - Evan Turner will average 15 pts, 7 reb, 4 ast per game.
24. PHX - The Suns will not have a 20 point scorer but have 4 players average 15+ ppg.
25. POR - Damian Lillard will win the ROY with 16 ppg and 6 apg.
26. SAC - Cousins averages 20-10, Kings get 2nd pick in the draft next year.
27. SA - Kawhi Leonard averages 12 pts, 6 reb, 2 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.7 blks per game.
28. TOR - Kyle Lowry averages 15 pts, 7 ast, 4 reb, 1.2 3’s, 1.3 stls per game.
29. UTA - After Millsap is traded, Derrick Favors will average 15-9.
30. WAS - Bradley Beal will lead the team in scoring with 18 ppg.

There you have it, all of my 2012-2013 NBA Predictions. I don’t know how much of them will be right, but its always fun to look into the crystal ball and guess what will happen. This NBA season is going to be extremely exciting, with more twists and turns than a roller coaster. Good luck to all the teams out there, and may the odds be ever in your favor. Except you, Miami. I hope you get rocked. Comments appreciated!