NFL Week 11 Preview

Week 11 Preview

Week 10 possessed a lot of firsts: The Chiefs’ first lead, the Falcons’ first loss, and the first tie in four years (aka the most unproductive half hour in eternity). I don’t want to brag, but I had the Cowboys and Eagles at a tie at 24 last week. I just got the wrong late afternoon game. It was the Rams and 49ers, and I even nailed the score. So close. It was also the Week of Injured Quarterbacks, with Michael Vick, Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, and Big Ben all going down. As of right now, it looks like Smith is the only one looking probable to play, which makes a difference in my predictions, so I’ll do my best to speculate. Last week also made me furious. I talk all the time about how I hate big, double digit spreads. I took the favorites in all three of such games in Week 10. I lost on all of them. Never again. Anyway, I got over half of my predictions right last week, so let’s see if I can build on that. Side note: I am very thankful that the Giants have a bye this week. Now they can regroup and begin their late-season dominance.

MIA vs BUF (-1.5) - The Dolphins got absolutely obliterated last week in a game that could have won to go back over .500. The Bills put up their second valiant effort against the Patriots this season but again fell short, which has been a trend the last few years. They fall to 3-6 and have an easy schedule down the stretch but it might be too big a hole to overcome. I do think playing at home on a short week that they get this win against a underrated Dolphins team, though, as possibly the start of a late run. No turnovers Ryan Fitzpatrick, please! Miami 20, Buffalo 24.

ARI vs ATL (-9.5) - Talk about the tale of two seasons for the Cardinals. They started out 4-0, only to lose their next five games. They just had the bye to regroup, but it doesn’t get any easier. The Falcons rarely lose at home and they are ready to get back on the field to show the world that their first loss was a blip, not a trend. I’m going to go with the Falcons by exactly ten here, so they cover the spread. The deciding factor will be if the Cards can score enough points to keep up. Arizona 17, Atlanta 27.

CLE vs DAL (-7.5) - I don’t know why anyone would lay 7.5 on the Cowboys at home against a pesky Browns team that can run the ball and are coming off a bye. Romo is spectacular in November, but I think this will only be a tight win, as is the norm with this team. Give me the Dawg Pound and the points. Cleveland 23, Dallas 27.

GB vs DET (+3.5) - As much as I would like the irrelevant Lions to slow down the Packers’ momentum, I don’t see it. This team is on a mission, and if Jordy Nelson comes back it will only enhance the offense. First to 30. Green Bay 34, Detroit 24.

CIN vs KC (+3.5) - Both teams are coming in with momentum. The Bengals just decimated the Giants at home last week, and the Chiefs finally had a lead! They had a shot to win that game against the Steelers on Monday Night, too, they just made too many mistakes, because, you know, they are the Chiefs. However, I’m not a believer in Cincy, especially on the road, and this KC team has too much talent to keep losing so horribly. I’m not going full upset special on this one, but since its a 3.5 point spread, I’ll take the Chiefs to either win or lose by a field goal. This will not be a blowout. Matt will be King of the Cassel, King of the Cassel. Cincinnati 20, Kansas City 21.

NYJ vs STL (-3.5) - I’m embarrassed to be a New Yorker watching the Jets every week. They are awful. I hope they get destroyed. I hope they lose out and have a top five draft pick. They need a complete overhaul. As for the Rams, HOW DO YOU NOT CLOSE THAT GAME OUT LAST WEEK??!?!?!!!!?!? It was a road win against San Fran, there for the taking. What an awful matchup this is. But the Jets are more pathetic. Give me any team against them! Rams win. New York 13, St. Louis 23.

PHI vs WAS (-3.5) - This game comes down to one question: do you think RGIII can outscore Nick Foles by 4 at home? Yes. Maybe the Eagles will actually run the ball now to take pressure off their rookie quarterback! FREE SHADY!!!! The Eagles are spiraling down into oblivion, and Andy Reid’s days in Philly are coming to an end. This one will be the dagger. Philadelphia 20, Washington 30.

TB vs CAR (+1.5) - I’m not going upset special on this game either because the spread is too close to call it an upset, but I am picking Carolina to win this game. The Bucs have been fantastic in my opinion, and have a young nucleus. Remember, their two best offensive lineman are both out (Joseph and Nicks). Doug Martin is a beast, and Josh Freeman has bounced back. But I think the Panthers have one more fight left in them. This will be a pride game for the Panthers, and I think they pull together and win one to prove that there are, in fact, four quality teams in the NFC South. Cam won’t be 2-8. Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 23.

JAC vs HOU (-15.5) - FIFTEEN AND A HALF POINTS?????? Wow. I know there is a huge difference between these teams, but...that’s a lot. Look: Once again, I hate huge spreads. They screwed my over last week. I picked the Jags to beat the spread when they went into Lambeau a few weeks ago and they came through. I’m taking them again. NOT to win. Just to lose by less than 16. Jacksonville 14, Houston 27.

NO vs OAK (+4.5) - This one will be an air show. 110 combined passes. 700 combined passing yards. 5 combined touchdown passes. At least. Book it. So now you have to ask yourself one question: who would you pick to win a shootout, Drew Brees or Carson Palmer? This one might be first to 40. But I think Carson throws a garbage time touchdown to get it close. I’m taking OAK and the points. New Orleans 38, Oakland 34.

SD vs DEN (-7.5) - The Chargers had their chance to beat the Broncos: Monday Night a few weeks back when they let a 24 point halftime lead at home slip away. They won’t have a shot this time. It’s going to be the Peyton Manning show. This is my blowout game. Comfortable win for 18. San Diego 21, Denver 38.

IND vs NE (-9.5) - Same rivalry, but it will be a battle of number 12s instead of the Manning-Brady bowl. This is going to be a great game. And I think this spread is too high. Actually, I think that the Colts have a chance to win this game outright, but I don’t have the balls to call it. The Pats are banged up and they’ve been living on the edge this year. The secondary got torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick, and now they have Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne coming to town. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was an overtime game. How fitting would it be if the game came down to a Vinatieri field goal? I’m taking the Patriots to barely escape. By the way, I hate New England, but late Sunday afternoon games in Foxborough are great. Indianapolis 31, New England 34.

BAL vs PIT (-3.5) - No Big Ben is no win for the Steelers in my opinion. In football’s most physical rivalry, Ben was a lethal weapon with his size and playmaking ability; now Pittsburgh is going to have the statue that is Byron Leftwich in the pocket. Not a recipe for success. I would have had the Steel City coming away with this win if Ben was on the field, but I’m flipping. The Ravens lost their heart and soul, but they will still be 8-2. My Super Bowl pick hanging in there. Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 13.

CHI vs SF (-4.5) - What an awful game to pick. If Cutler plays, I am taking the Bears with the points. If he doesn’t, I’m taking the 49ers by a touchdown. But if Alex Smith doesn’t play either, I think Kaepernick would get eaten alive and the game would be first to 10. I’ll update my prediction to this game on Sunday or Monday. But for now, I’ll take Da Bears. Chicago 16, San Francisco 19.