NFL Week 10 Preview

Week 10 Preview

It’s no secret if you’ve been following my picks that this has been a pretty disappointing season so far. I’ve had a few good weeks and had some decent upset picks, but overall I’ve struggled, going by the standards I set for myself. So now that we are on the back end of the season, in double digit weeks, I’m hoping that I’ll be able to close strong. Week 10 has some really high spreads, which I hate, and which also means that there aren’t that many competitive games. There is only one game between two teams under .500: Cowboys at Eagles. The best game of the week is quite obvious: the Sunday Night Football match-up between the Houston Texans and the Chicago Bears, a potential Super Bowl preview. There are a couple of intriguing divisional games but no more blockbusters. With that said, here are my Week 10 picks for you.

IND vs JAC (+3.5) - The Jaguars stink. There’s no way around it. They have no strengths. Meanwhile, the Andrew Luck bandwagon is rolling strong with the Colts on a winning streak and currently holding the 6th seed in the AFC. For those thinking that this game will be a blowout, remember two things: First, that home teams have played much better on Thursday Night. Second, the Jags beat the Colts in Indy earlier this year with a late touchdown for their only win so far this year. This game will be tight. But Luck will be the best player on the field tonight. Indianapolis 24, Jacksonville 20.

NYG vs CIN (+4.5) - The Bengals have fallen off and are struggling in Andy Dalton’s second year. Meanwhile, the Giants are inexplicably dreadful in November. However, the G-Men own the road, they got embarrassed last week, and Coughlin called the D-line “soft” after the performance against the Steelers. This team wants a win going into the bye, and I think they will play angry after last week. Wrong place, wrong time for the Bengals. Two for two with road favorites. New York 27, Cincinnati 17.

TEN vs MIA (-6.5) - The Titans are impossible to predict; they beat the Lions and Steelers, but have more recently blown a game against Indy and last week got absolutely murdered by the Bears. The Dolphins have pleasantly surprised me, and are already the second best team in the AFC East in only Tannehill’s rookie season. It’s a Miami win at home to improve to 5-4, but I’m going to say the win by less than a touchdown. I think the Titans are playing for pride, and they will keep it close on the road. Low-scoring game if the Titans want to have a chance. Tennessee 16, Miami 21.

DET vs MIN (+2.5) - How about the Vikes getting points at home against a streaky team? The Lions are on a roll but they haven’t beaten anyone impressive and now they have to go on the road against a division rival who can play the “nobody believes in us” card since they are home dogs with a better record. I wasn’t buying Detroit before the season started, and I’m not buying them now. I’m taking the Vikings all the way in this game. Two words: Percy Harvin. Detroit 17, Minnesota 20.

BUF vs NE (-11.5) - The game in Buffalo was a big spread and the Bills owned the first half before being completely demolished in the second half. I really hope they can keep it close. But I just don’t see it. I’m going with the Pats big in this one even though I hope I’m wrong. Too much firepower. The Bills can start looking forward to next season. If there was ever a time for a Mario Williams sighting...this is it. Buffalo 20, New England 35.

ATL vs NO (+2.5) - Usually I don’t count 2.5 points as qualified to be an Upset Special, but I’m making an exception this week because it’s going to be the fall of an undefeated team. The Falcons are the lone undefeated team in the NFL, but they are running into a Saints team at home with the season on the line. Drew Brees has struggled the last couple of weeks but I think he carves up this secondary. Who Dat nation was big on Monday Night, but I think this week they will be enormous. The Saints will come marching in. Atlanta 24, New Orleans 30.

SD vs TB (-3.5) - Just because the Chargers beat up on the Chiefs last Thursday Night doesn’t mean that they have woken up from their nap yet. Remember, that game was close late until a couple of defensive touchdowns broke it open. And it was the Chiefs. This time San Diego will be going on the road to take on the Muscle Hamster and the surging Buccaneers. Vincent Jackson will be foaming at the mouth for this one. I’m going with the Bucs. San Diego 21, Tampa Bay 30.

DEN vs CAR (+3.5) - The Panthers won an important game last week in Washington, but that was against a rookie quarterback, even though RGIII has been sensational. Now Carolina gets Peyton Manning, who is as good as ever, and is one of the favorites for MVP already. The Broncos have gotten better every week, and the rest of their schedule is cake. Denver could find themselves with the 2 seed if they keep progressing. I think they take care of business here against Cam pretty comfortably, and keep rolling to 6-3. Denver 31, Carolina 21.

OAK vs BAL (-7.5) - Have people ever been less confident about a 6-2 team than they are about these Ravens? If they were at full strength, they would arguably be the best team in the AFC, but they have been decimated. No matter how shaky they are, one fact holds true: this team is money at home. However, I think this spread is too high. Carson Palmer is going to throw it 50+ times on Sunday, and they are bound to score some points to ensure that this game is not a blowout. Watch out for the Raiders. Tight win for the Ravens. Oakland 23, Baltimore 27.

NYJ vs SEA (-6.5) - I feel like a horrible New Yorker, but I feel completely confident that the Seahawks are going to win this game by at least two touchdowns, kind of like the Dallas win from Week 2. The Jets are in shambles on offense, and the Seattle D is monstrous at home. Marshawn Lynch will have 125 yards on the ground and at least 1 score. I’m taking the Over on 7.5 sacks+turnovers for SEA. New York 10, Seattle 30.

DAL vs PHI (-1.5) - So this is what we’ve come to. The two most overrated teams in the league at 3-5 facing off to see who keeps their season relevant for one more week. Both these teams are pathetic, and I am incredibly tempted to predict a tie. You know what? I’m going to. Because my first instinct was to pick the Cowboys with the points, so a tie would mean a win for Dallas with the spread anyway. So here we go: Dallas and Philly are tied going into overtime, where there will be at least 2 turnovers and no scores. Andy Reid will ice Dan Bailey on a game-winning attempt, followed by Jason Garrett icing Bailey as well, followed by a blocked kick that is returned to the 1 yard line before the player fumbles out of the back of the end zone for a touchback. I just want these teams to leave so ESPN will talk about someone else. Dallas 24, Philadelphia 24.

STL vs SF (-11.5) - If this game was in St. Louis there’s no way I would take San Fran with the points, but I have to for this one. We’ve already seen in baseball that St. Louis can’t beat San Francisco. The Rams can’t score, and the 49ers will run all day. 49ers, big time. St. Louis 13, San Francisco 34.

HOU vs CHI (-1.5) - What a game this is going to be. These teams are almost identical: two quarterbacks with above average talent who has yet to win the big game; two stud running backs in Foster and Forte; two superstar receivers, Johnson and Marshall; and two ferocious defenses that make plays. Lots of big hits, lots of sacks, some points here and there...I hope this game lives up to the potential. Possible Super Bowl preview. I’m really pumped. So what’s the determining factor? Bears at home. Whoever wins will be by a field goal. Give me Robbie Gould or give me death! 45-yarder as time expires. Houston 17, Chicago 20.

KC vs PIT (-12.5) - Another huge spread...and I’m taking it. Again. What is wrong with me this week? Look...the Chiefs suck. Like historically. They have not led. Ever. Besides the game-winning field goal in overtime. So that’s still 0 seconds. The Steelers are clicking right now. This game will be horrible. Kansas City 9, Pittsburgh 26.