NFL Week 13 Preview

Week 13 Preview

Week 12 was quite a weekend in football, in which two plays defined seasons for two teams. First, no one can forget Thanksgiving night, when Mark Sanchez ran into his own offensive lineman untouched, promptly fumbling and allowing the Patriots to get yet another return touchdown. Then there are the nap time Chargers, who, just when it looked like they were in line for another win, gave up a 4th and 29 conversion to the Ravens and ended up losing in overtime. FOURTH AND TWENTY-NINE. How does that happen? It looks like Norv Turner will join Andy Reid in getting the axe after this season. This week there are more marquee matchups starting tonight with the Saints at the Falcons and ending on Monday Night with the Giants at the Redskins. This week is the first Sunday that we will be in December...behold the greatness of cold weather football. Let’s see if I can do better with my picks this week.

NO vs ATL (-3.5) - The Saints have owned the Falcons in recent years, winning 11 of the past 13 games between these two division rivals. Matt Ryan has had one “win this game to prove that you are elite” game this season, and he lost it. It was the game in New Orleans when he couldn’t win the game with four shots inside the five. With that said, I think the Saints’ loss last week against the 49ers was demoralizing, as they needed that win to stay in legitimate playoff contention. I’m going to be rooting for Who Dat to win, but I’ve got the Falcons by four in this one, barely covering. Either way, it’s going to be a competitive game. New Orleans 30, Atlanta 34.

JAC vs BUF (-6.5) - I’m convinced that the Bills cannot blow anybody out, and it is a lot to ask for them to beat anybody by at least a touchdown. Even the Jags, who are dreadful, but who look like the Patriots with Chad Henne at the helm. I think the Bills will win this game because they are at home against a warm weather team, but I’m taking the Jags and the points. Jacksonville 19, Buffalo 24.

SEA vs CHI (-4.5) - The main news coming from Seahawks camp is the probable four game suspension that will be coming for beastly cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. They blew a golden opportunity to solidify their position as the number six seed in the NFC and have no more cushion. They have proven that they need to play a perfect game to win on the road. Meanwhile, the Bears are as good as anyone with Cutler at quarterback, even with injuries to Matt Forte, Devin Hester, and Charles Tillman. Bears win comfortably. Seattle 13, Chicago 27.

IND vs DET (-4.5) - I think the Colts will win straight up anyway, but if you’re asking me whether the motivated team on a mission can lose by less than five points on the road against a self-destructive team with a three-game worse record...I’ll take those odds. Indianapolis 27, Detroit 20.

MIN vs GB (-9.5) - The Vikings are on the decline with their gauntlet of a stretch run. However, they still have Adrian Peterson and enough of a defense to hang with the cheeseheads in a division game. The Packers are a superior team, but I think that this will be a single digit game. As long as they can contain Aaron Rodgers. Minnesota 20, Green Bay 28.

HOU vs TEN (+5.5) - Last time these two teams played, the Texans demolished the Titans but Chris Johnson had a pretty good game on the ground. This time it is in Tennessee, and Houston is tired. They have played two overtime games in the span of five games and are banged up. I’m picking the Texans to win, barely, because they have been dominant all year. I was tempted to pick this game as an upset, but I’m not prepared to go that far. Houston 23, Tennessee 20.

CAR vs KC (+3.5) - The Chiefs suck eggs. Carolina 24, Kansas City 14.

SF vs STL (+7.5) - Really? 7 and a half points? These two teams played to a tie in San Fran, and the Rams play really well at home. The difference, of course, is Colin Kaepernick, but do you think he’s worth two possessions? I don’t. I think the Rams keep this one close enough to cover. San Francisco 24, St. Louis 19.

NE vs MIA (+7.5) - Same situation as the game above: superior team on the road against a division opponent who has overachieved this year. Different result: Patriots roll. They are scoring at a mythic pace, and haven’t lost in the second half of seasons since 2010. A lot of points again. New England 34, Miami 20.

ARI vs NYJ (-4.5) - Wow. Ugly matchup. Two teams with pretty good defenses and horrific offenses. So I’ll keep this simple. Jets win by less than five points. Under 35 total points. Arizona 14, New York 17.

TB vs DEN (-6.5) - The Bucs were on fire until last week when they lost to the Falcons by one. Now they have to travel to Denver, who are even more on fire than themselves. Peyton has been the frontrunner for MVP and is looking forward to torching this porous Buccaneers defense. I think that the Broncos impose their will on Sunday. Another game of 300 and 3 TDs for 18. Tampa Bay 17, Denver 31.

CLE vs OAK (-0.5) - It’s a pick’em game between two horrible teams. The Browns have looked better. The Raiders are at home. I’m tempted to call a tie. Instead, I’ll go with a Janikowski field goal in OT. Cleveland 10, Oakland 13.

CIN vs SD (+1.5) - I hate both these teams. But the Chargers aren’t going anywhere. So I want them to knock off the Bengals. I can’t believe I am picking the Bolts to win anything. But here goes nothing. Cincinnati 17, San Diego 20.

PIT vs BAL (-6.5) - It looks like Big Ben is not going to play, but this game is always competitive. I’m taking the points on this one, because the Steelers have too much pride to get blown out. Pittsburgh 13, Baltimore 17.

PHI vs DAL (-9.5) - There are four certainties in life: death, taxes, God hates Cleveland, and NEVER PICK THE COWBOYS TO BEAT A BIG SPREAD AT HOME. They can’t do it. Cowboys win, close. Philadelphia 23, Dallas 30.

NYG vs WAS (+2.5) - What a game this is. Both teams look really good. Super Bowl MVP vs the incredible rookie. Redskins trying to pull within one game of the division. A lot of storylines in this one. But there’s only one team you can pick in December in a big game on the road. Eli and Big Blue. To show the world again who are the beasts of the East. New York 34, Washington 24.

NFL Week 12 Preview

Week 12 Preview

Before I begin my picks for Week 12, I would first like to wish all my readers a Happy Thanksgiving. It’s the day of Three F’s: Family, Food, and Football. This is the point of the season when either the real contenders step up and separate themselves from the pack, or teams stumble and allow hot organizations to get in the playoff mix. They say it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. Well, this is the beginning of the stretch run to end the season. And I think there are going to be a lot of crazy results this week. I’m not messing around with these predictions this weekend. So let’s get to it, starting with a Turkey Day Triple Header.

HOU vs DET (+3.5) - The obvious downside of picking the Texans is pointing out the fact that they are playing a 12:30 Thursday game on the road after enduring a should-never-have-been-that-close OT win at home just four days ago. But I think they got their bad performance out of the way. They will come to play on a national stage. Their defense will be back in form. Even coming off a 527-yard day, I would still take the Under on 300 for Schaub in this one; I think they are going to pound Foster to regain their balance. Player of the Game: JJ Watt. Houston 27, Detroit 13.

WAS vs DAL (-3.5) - A lot of implications in this one. We know RGIII is not afraid of a huge stage. They can keep their season alive with a big win in Big D. The Cowboys meanwhile, are right back in the playoff hunt with a couple of wins in a row and an easy schedule ahead. This game pretty much boils down to one question: do you think the Cowboys are going to break everyone’s hearts now, or later? I’m going with now. Griffin is going to shut down this Dallas momentum. I’m a believer. Redskins go on the road and earn a tough win. 3 total TDs for RGIII. Washington 24, Dallas 21.

NE vs NYJ (+6.5) - Really wish this spread was 7.5 but it is what it is. I was all ready to put this one in blowout territory until Gronk went down last week on point number 59. Reports are Aaron Hernandez is returning but how much production can you expect from him? With no big threat in the middle, the Pats are going to have to rely on their receivers getting open, and the Jets have done a good job in the past of jamming receivers and throwing off Brady’s timing. I think they try and run more, with Woodhead getting at least 1 TD against the team that cut him. The Jets played this game tough in Foxborough and this is a pride game. Their season is over, but they have this one chance on national television to prove that they are not clowns, and take out their hated rival at home to give New Yorkers something to be very thankful for. I’m going with an outright win for the home team because I’m a Jets fan, but even if I wasn’t I would still grab those points. Sanchez puts together a gem, they pick off Brady twice, and have a D/ST touchdown in this one. Huge win. New England 24, New York 27.

MIN vs CHI (-5.5) - It is yet to be known whether Jay Cutler will play or not, but I would take the Vikings and the points no matter what. Divisional games are always close, and the Bears have lost two in a row, albeit to two powerhouses. They can be run on, and AP is coming to town. If Cutler is out, I think this one could end up being another upset, but if he plays then it’s a close win. So I’ll throw out two scores with for possibility. JC OUT: Minnesota 23, Chicago 16. JC IN: Minnesota 17, Chicago 20.

OAK vs CIN (-7.5) - I know these teams are heading in different directions, but is Andy Dalton really being given over a TD? I’m tempted to go upset on this one but I don’t trust the Raiders on the road enough for that. But I think it will be at least a one possession game. The Raiders should double AJ Green on every play. If not triple. Make someone else beat you. My prediction: Cincy will have a 3rd and 2 needing a first down to ice the game and the Raiders will jump offsides for the first. Tight game though. You know Carson Palmer wants this one badly. Oakland 23, Cincinnati 24.

PIT vs CLE (+3.5) - Another “don’t have enough balls to call it an upset” game. The Browns are sneaky good, they just have not been able to put together a complete game. They will be at home against a banged up Steelers team with Charlie Batch starting at quarterback, as a classic trap game in between the two with Baltimore. The line is 3.5, and I’m taking the Steelers by 2 with my exact score. But I like Cleveland and the points to prevail, even if it isn’t quite an upset. I’ve correctly predicted all 10 of the Browns’ games (straight up), and I don’t plan on losing now. But watch out for this one. Like I said, it’s going to be a chaotic week. Pittsburgh 21, Cleveland 19.

BUF vs IND (-3.5) - If this was in Buffalo then I would take the Bills to win. But it’s not. It’s in Indy. Where ChuckStrong will be in full force. I don’t think this is a blowout, but I think it’s comfortable enough for Indy. Andrew Luck showed last week that he isn’t quite ready to take on the big boys, but the potential is there. This kid is going to be a superstar sooner rather than later. I think he’ll respond here with an impressive game. I’m going specifics on his line, because why not? 27-42, 307 yards, 3 total TD, 1 INT. Let’s go. Buffalo 20, Indianapolis 31.

DEN vs KC (+10.5) - The only thing that scares me about this one is that the Broncos will not take the Chiefs seriously, let them hang around, and then win late when KC inevitably turns it over on the potential winning drive. But that’s a small worry. Give me 18. That’s the number of Peyton Manning, and what the winning margin of this game will be. Cover city on a big spread...what could possibly go wrong? Bold Prediction: Eric Decker gets 3 TD receiving. Denver 31, Kansas City 13.

SEA vs MIA (+2.5) - The Dolphins are better than I thought they would be...but I like the Seahawks more than the Bucs for that final wild card spot in the NFC so I’m riding with them. Third rounder beats first rounder. Seattle 20, Miami 14.

ATL vs TB (+0.5) - The Atlanta Falcons have to be the most unappreciated 9-1 team ever. And I’m part of that skepticism. They have no recent history to fall back on. They have zero impressive wins (I’m not counting the win over Peyton in Week 2; first road game back, 3 INTs in first quarter, almost blew a 20 point cushion), and in their one “win this to prove you are for real” game in New Orleans, Matt Ryan again came up short and couldn’t win the game from inside the 5. They can’t get it done. They have the best record in football but haven’t proven anything. They should have lost to Carolina, Oakland, and Arizona. In the NFC, which of the top teams do you think they can they beat in a playoff game, even at home? Not the 49ers. Probably not the Giants, Bears, and Packers, either. They cannot be taken seriously. Now they have another tough test going into red hot Tampa Bay. And you know what? I think Matt Ryan comes up short again. These Bucs are clicking. I had the Panthers winning this division, but I picked the wrong NFC South team to break out, I guess. Right now, Tampa is playing better football than the Falcons. They prove it on Sunday. Doug Martin is for real. Josh Freeman has finally progressed whereas Mark Sanchez has not (they were taken in the same draft, Sanchez at 5, Freeman at 17). They have a big play threat in V-Jax. It’s a one-possession game that the Bucs find a way to win. Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 31.

TEN vs JAC (+2.5) - The Jags had their chance last week to prove themselves. Chad Henne came off the bench and had 400 yards and 4 TDs. And they still lost. Go away, Jacksonville. Chris Johnson alert: possible 150 and 2 TD game coming up off a bye against a bad team. Tennessee 27, Jacksonville 10.

BAL vs SD (+0.5) - I picked this Chargers win before the season and I’m not backing down. I talked about a potential trap game for the Steelers; this is it for the Ravens as well. As disappointing as San Diego has been the last few years, they just seem to play well against Baltimore. The Ravens have to travel out west in between Steeler games against a team who is desperate for a win and have to make one final stand to show that they aren’t the Eagles of the AFC. All the ingredients are there. The Ravens were my Super Bowl pick, but I’ve had this one booked for months. Don’t let me down, San Diego. Baltimore 20, San Diego 26.

SF vs NO (+1.5) - Colin Kaepernick was fantastic against the Bears on Monday Night and will reportedly take over the starting gig from Alex Smith. I don’t like this decision. Not yet. Smith deserves to start for the rest of the year. After all, he played well enough to get this team to the Super Bowl last year. And while Kaep played great in his first ever start...welcome to the Superdome. The Saints have an awful defense, but this game is going to be different. I think Harbaugh will already have bad karma for the QB change. The Saints want revenge for their heartbreaking playoff loss in San Francisco last year. First road start for Kaepernick. Saints hot and firing on all cylinders, with a possible return for Sproles. I don’t think the 49ers make it out of New Orleans alive. Saints, convincingly. 2 dunks for Jimmy Graham. San Francisco 17, New Orleans 31.

STL vs ARI (-2.5) - Who cares? Bad against bad. Cardinals win by three because of their defense at home. 2 offensive touchdowns combined in this one. This is a draft order game. St. Louis 10, Arizona 13,

GB vs NYG (-2.5) - The Giants have mastered the art of the 16 game season. They were off to a smoking start but have looked dreadful the last few weeks. Big Blue had their bye last week to regroup and get ready for the sprint at the end to put the division away. The Pack are hot and are hungry to avenge their playoff loss from last year. But this game in MetLife Stadium. The Giants are more complete. They have been struggling, but this is what they want. Us against the world, taking on a powerhouse, national television...it’s perfect. The G-Men are going to completely steal all of Green Bay’s momentum. Statement game. Green Bay 24, New York 37.

CAR vs PHI (-2.5) - Who would have thought that whoever loses this game is going to have to worst record in the NFC? This was supposed to be a Monday Night showdown between the superstar Cam and the dynamic Michael Vick. The Eagles will be starting rookies at QB and RB. The Panthers are better than 2-8. They blew the game last week to Tampa. They blew a game early in Chicago. They choked away the Atlanta game. They easily could have beat Seattle and Dallas at home instead of suffering tight losses. This team could very well be .500 if they could close games. And that sound you hear is Andy Reid’s job on life support. Or is that him calling a timeout before the game even starts? I’ve got the Panthers. Carolina 24, Philadelphia 17.

Well, there you have it. What a slate of games to begin the finish. I said I had some wild predictions; I have 6 underdogs winning straight up and 3 more beating the spread. Good luck this week everyone, and Happy Turkey Day.

NFL Week 11 Preview

Week 11 Preview

Week 10 possessed a lot of firsts: The Chiefs’ first lead, the Falcons’ first loss, and the first tie in four years (aka the most unproductive half hour in eternity). I don’t want to brag, but I had the Cowboys and Eagles at a tie at 24 last week. I just got the wrong late afternoon game. It was the Rams and 49ers, and I even nailed the score. So close. It was also the Week of Injured Quarterbacks, with Michael Vick, Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, and Big Ben all going down. As of right now, it looks like Smith is the only one looking probable to play, which makes a difference in my predictions, so I’ll do my best to speculate. Last week also made me furious. I talk all the time about how I hate big, double digit spreads. I took the favorites in all three of such games in Week 10. I lost on all of them. Never again. Anyway, I got over half of my predictions right last week, so let’s see if I can build on that. Side note: I am very thankful that the Giants have a bye this week. Now they can regroup and begin their late-season dominance.

MIA vs BUF (-1.5) - The Dolphins got absolutely obliterated last week in a game that could have won to go back over .500. The Bills put up their second valiant effort against the Patriots this season but again fell short, which has been a trend the last few years. They fall to 3-6 and have an easy schedule down the stretch but it might be too big a hole to overcome. I do think playing at home on a short week that they get this win against a underrated Dolphins team, though, as possibly the start of a late run. No turnovers Ryan Fitzpatrick, please! Miami 20, Buffalo 24.

ARI vs ATL (-9.5) - Talk about the tale of two seasons for the Cardinals. They started out 4-0, only to lose their next five games. They just had the bye to regroup, but it doesn’t get any easier. The Falcons rarely lose at home and they are ready to get back on the field to show the world that their first loss was a blip, not a trend. I’m going to go with the Falcons by exactly ten here, so they cover the spread. The deciding factor will be if the Cards can score enough points to keep up. Arizona 17, Atlanta 27.

CLE vs DAL (-7.5) - I don’t know why anyone would lay 7.5 on the Cowboys at home against a pesky Browns team that can run the ball and are coming off a bye. Romo is spectacular in November, but I think this will only be a tight win, as is the norm with this team. Give me the Dawg Pound and the points. Cleveland 23, Dallas 27.

GB vs DET (+3.5) - As much as I would like the irrelevant Lions to slow down the Packers’ momentum, I don’t see it. This team is on a mission, and if Jordy Nelson comes back it will only enhance the offense. First to 30. Green Bay 34, Detroit 24.

CIN vs KC (+3.5) - Both teams are coming in with momentum. The Bengals just decimated the Giants at home last week, and the Chiefs finally had a lead! They had a shot to win that game against the Steelers on Monday Night, too, they just made too many mistakes, because, you know, they are the Chiefs. However, I’m not a believer in Cincy, especially on the road, and this KC team has too much talent to keep losing so horribly. I’m not going full upset special on this one, but since its a 3.5 point spread, I’ll take the Chiefs to either win or lose by a field goal. This will not be a blowout. Matt will be King of the Cassel, King of the Cassel. Cincinnati 20, Kansas City 21.

NYJ vs STL (-3.5) - I’m embarrassed to be a New Yorker watching the Jets every week. They are awful. I hope they get destroyed. I hope they lose out and have a top five draft pick. They need a complete overhaul. As for the Rams, HOW DO YOU NOT CLOSE THAT GAME OUT LAST WEEK??!?!?!!!!?!? It was a road win against San Fran, there for the taking. What an awful matchup this is. But the Jets are more pathetic. Give me any team against them! Rams win. New York 13, St. Louis 23.

PHI vs WAS (-3.5) - This game comes down to one question: do you think RGIII can outscore Nick Foles by 4 at home? Yes. Maybe the Eagles will actually run the ball now to take pressure off their rookie quarterback! FREE SHADY!!!! The Eagles are spiraling down into oblivion, and Andy Reid’s days in Philly are coming to an end. This one will be the dagger. Philadelphia 20, Washington 30.

TB vs CAR (+1.5) - I’m not going upset special on this game either because the spread is too close to call it an upset, but I am picking Carolina to win this game. The Bucs have been fantastic in my opinion, and have a young nucleus. Remember, their two best offensive lineman are both out (Joseph and Nicks). Doug Martin is a beast, and Josh Freeman has bounced back. But I think the Panthers have one more fight left in them. This will be a pride game for the Panthers, and I think they pull together and win one to prove that there are, in fact, four quality teams in the NFC South. Cam won’t be 2-8. Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 23.

JAC vs HOU (-15.5) - FIFTEEN AND A HALF POINTS?????? Wow. I know there is a huge difference between these teams, but...that’s a lot. Look: Once again, I hate huge spreads. They screwed my over last week. I picked the Jags to beat the spread when they went into Lambeau a few weeks ago and they came through. I’m taking them again. NOT to win. Just to lose by less than 16. Jacksonville 14, Houston 27.

NO vs OAK (+4.5) - This one will be an air show. 110 combined passes. 700 combined passing yards. 5 combined touchdown passes. At least. Book it. So now you have to ask yourself one question: who would you pick to win a shootout, Drew Brees or Carson Palmer? This one might be first to 40. But I think Carson throws a garbage time touchdown to get it close. I’m taking OAK and the points. New Orleans 38, Oakland 34.

SD vs DEN (-7.5) - The Chargers had their chance to beat the Broncos: Monday Night a few weeks back when they let a 24 point halftime lead at home slip away. They won’t have a shot this time. It’s going to be the Peyton Manning show. This is my blowout game. Comfortable win for 18. San Diego 21, Denver 38.

IND vs NE (-9.5) - Same rivalry, but it will be a battle of number 12s instead of the Manning-Brady bowl. This is going to be a great game. And I think this spread is too high. Actually, I think that the Colts have a chance to win this game outright, but I don’t have the balls to call it. The Pats are banged up and they’ve been living on the edge this year. The secondary got torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick, and now they have Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne coming to town. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was an overtime game. How fitting would it be if the game came down to a Vinatieri field goal? I’m taking the Patriots to barely escape. By the way, I hate New England, but late Sunday afternoon games in Foxborough are great. Indianapolis 31, New England 34.

BAL vs PIT (-3.5) - No Big Ben is no win for the Steelers in my opinion. In football’s most physical rivalry, Ben was a lethal weapon with his size and playmaking ability; now Pittsburgh is going to have the statue that is Byron Leftwich in the pocket. Not a recipe for success. I would have had the Steel City coming away with this win if Ben was on the field, but I’m flipping. The Ravens lost their heart and soul, but they will still be 8-2. My Super Bowl pick hanging in there. Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 13.

CHI vs SF (-4.5) - What an awful game to pick. If Cutler plays, I am taking the Bears with the points. If he doesn’t, I’m taking the 49ers by a touchdown. But if Alex Smith doesn’t play either, I think Kaepernick would get eaten alive and the game would be first to 10. I’ll update my prediction to this game on Sunday or Monday. But for now, I’ll take Da Bears. Chicago 16, San Francisco 19.

NFL Week 10 Preview

Week 10 Preview

It’s no secret if you’ve been following my picks that this has been a pretty disappointing season so far. I’ve had a few good weeks and had some decent upset picks, but overall I’ve struggled, going by the standards I set for myself. So now that we are on the back end of the season, in double digit weeks, I’m hoping that I’ll be able to close strong. Week 10 has some really high spreads, which I hate, and which also means that there aren’t that many competitive games. There is only one game between two teams under .500: Cowboys at Eagles. The best game of the week is quite obvious: the Sunday Night Football match-up between the Houston Texans and the Chicago Bears, a potential Super Bowl preview. There are a couple of intriguing divisional games but no more blockbusters. With that said, here are my Week 10 picks for you.

IND vs JAC (+3.5) - The Jaguars stink. There’s no way around it. They have no strengths. Meanwhile, the Andrew Luck bandwagon is rolling strong with the Colts on a winning streak and currently holding the 6th seed in the AFC. For those thinking that this game will be a blowout, remember two things: First, that home teams have played much better on Thursday Night. Second, the Jags beat the Colts in Indy earlier this year with a late touchdown for their only win so far this year. This game will be tight. But Luck will be the best player on the field tonight. Indianapolis 24, Jacksonville 20.

NYG vs CIN (+4.5) - The Bengals have fallen off and are struggling in Andy Dalton’s second year. Meanwhile, the Giants are inexplicably dreadful in November. However, the G-Men own the road, they got embarrassed last week, and Coughlin called the D-line “soft” after the performance against the Steelers. This team wants a win going into the bye, and I think they will play angry after last week. Wrong place, wrong time for the Bengals. Two for two with road favorites. New York 27, Cincinnati 17.

TEN vs MIA (-6.5) - The Titans are impossible to predict; they beat the Lions and Steelers, but have more recently blown a game against Indy and last week got absolutely murdered by the Bears. The Dolphins have pleasantly surprised me, and are already the second best team in the AFC East in only Tannehill’s rookie season. It’s a Miami win at home to improve to 5-4, but I’m going to say the win by less than a touchdown. I think the Titans are playing for pride, and they will keep it close on the road. Low-scoring game if the Titans want to have a chance. Tennessee 16, Miami 21.

DET vs MIN (+2.5) - How about the Vikes getting points at home against a streaky team? The Lions are on a roll but they haven’t beaten anyone impressive and now they have to go on the road against a division rival who can play the “nobody believes in us” card since they are home dogs with a better record. I wasn’t buying Detroit before the season started, and I’m not buying them now. I’m taking the Vikings all the way in this game. Two words: Percy Harvin. Detroit 17, Minnesota 20.

BUF vs NE (-11.5) - The game in Buffalo was a big spread and the Bills owned the first half before being completely demolished in the second half. I really hope they can keep it close. But I just don’t see it. I’m going with the Pats big in this one even though I hope I’m wrong. Too much firepower. The Bills can start looking forward to next season. If there was ever a time for a Mario Williams sighting...this is it. Buffalo 20, New England 35.

ATL vs NO (+2.5) - Usually I don’t count 2.5 points as qualified to be an Upset Special, but I’m making an exception this week because it’s going to be the fall of an undefeated team. The Falcons are the lone undefeated team in the NFL, but they are running into a Saints team at home with the season on the line. Drew Brees has struggled the last couple of weeks but I think he carves up this secondary. Who Dat nation was big on Monday Night, but I think this week they will be enormous. The Saints will come marching in. Atlanta 24, New Orleans 30.

SD vs TB (-3.5) - Just because the Chargers beat up on the Chiefs last Thursday Night doesn’t mean that they have woken up from their nap yet. Remember, that game was close late until a couple of defensive touchdowns broke it open. And it was the Chiefs. This time San Diego will be going on the road to take on the Muscle Hamster and the surging Buccaneers. Vincent Jackson will be foaming at the mouth for this one. I’m going with the Bucs. San Diego 21, Tampa Bay 30.

DEN vs CAR (+3.5) - The Panthers won an important game last week in Washington, but that was against a rookie quarterback, even though RGIII has been sensational. Now Carolina gets Peyton Manning, who is as good as ever, and is one of the favorites for MVP already. The Broncos have gotten better every week, and the rest of their schedule is cake. Denver could find themselves with the 2 seed if they keep progressing. I think they take care of business here against Cam pretty comfortably, and keep rolling to 6-3. Denver 31, Carolina 21.

OAK vs BAL (-7.5) - Have people ever been less confident about a 6-2 team than they are about these Ravens? If they were at full strength, they would arguably be the best team in the AFC, but they have been decimated. No matter how shaky they are, one fact holds true: this team is money at home. However, I think this spread is too high. Carson Palmer is going to throw it 50+ times on Sunday, and they are bound to score some points to ensure that this game is not a blowout. Watch out for the Raiders. Tight win for the Ravens. Oakland 23, Baltimore 27.

NYJ vs SEA (-6.5) - I feel like a horrible New Yorker, but I feel completely confident that the Seahawks are going to win this game by at least two touchdowns, kind of like the Dallas win from Week 2. The Jets are in shambles on offense, and the Seattle D is monstrous at home. Marshawn Lynch will have 125 yards on the ground and at least 1 score. I’m taking the Over on 7.5 sacks+turnovers for SEA. New York 10, Seattle 30.

DAL vs PHI (-1.5) - So this is what we’ve come to. The two most overrated teams in the league at 3-5 facing off to see who keeps their season relevant for one more week. Both these teams are pathetic, and I am incredibly tempted to predict a tie. You know what? I’m going to. Because my first instinct was to pick the Cowboys with the points, so a tie would mean a win for Dallas with the spread anyway. So here we go: Dallas and Philly are tied going into overtime, where there will be at least 2 turnovers and no scores. Andy Reid will ice Dan Bailey on a game-winning attempt, followed by Jason Garrett icing Bailey as well, followed by a blocked kick that is returned to the 1 yard line before the player fumbles out of the back of the end zone for a touchback. I just want these teams to leave so ESPN will talk about someone else. Dallas 24, Philadelphia 24.

STL vs SF (-11.5) - If this game was in St. Louis there’s no way I would take San Fran with the points, but I have to for this one. We’ve already seen in baseball that St. Louis can’t beat San Francisco. The Rams can’t score, and the 49ers will run all day. 49ers, big time. St. Louis 13, San Francisco 34.

HOU vs CHI (-1.5) - What a game this is going to be. These teams are almost identical: two quarterbacks with above average talent who has yet to win the big game; two stud running backs in Foster and Forte; two superstar receivers, Johnson and Marshall; and two ferocious defenses that make plays. Lots of big hits, lots of sacks, some points here and there...I hope this game lives up to the potential. Possible Super Bowl preview. I’m really pumped. So what’s the determining factor? Bears at home. Whoever wins will be by a field goal. Give me Robbie Gould or give me death! 45-yarder as time expires. Houston 17, Chicago 20.

KC vs PIT (-12.5) - Another huge spread...and I’m taking it. Again. What is wrong with me this week? Look...the Chiefs suck. Like historically. They have not led. Ever. Besides the game-winning field goal in overtime. So that’s still 0 seconds. The Steelers are clicking right now. This game will be horrible. Kansas City 9, Pittsburgh 26.

NFL Week 9 Preview

Week 9 Preview

This is virtually the halfway point of the season, with a majority of teams playing their 8th game this week. Playoff pictures are starting to pan out, and there are several surprising contenders making a push (see MIA vs IND). It is also desperation time for many teams out there, which make for some very intriguing match-ups over the weekend. Tampa Bay vs Oakland and Philadelphia vs New Orleans are two examples are each team needing a victory in order to keep their season alive. Fun fact: I picked Cleveland to finish with the worst record in the NFL this year, and while there are a few teams trying their best to make sure I’m wrong (looking at you, Kansas City), I am 8-8 in picking their games this year. I had them beating the Bengals for their first win, and if you look back at my Cleveland Browns preview, I actually had them beating the Chargers back in the preseason. So if you want to bet on a game, listen to what I say about the Browns!!! Let’s look at this week’s games. After struggling last week, hopefully I’m due for a strong performance.

KC vs SD (-8.5) - A battle of underachieving AFC West teams who both stink. Did you know that the Chiefs have not led for a single second for the ENTIRE SEASON?!?!?! How can someone possibly be that bad? Their one win was on a field goal in overtime, so that’s still no time leading. The Chargers, as predicted, are in nap mode. This game is on a short week. How many ways are there to say ugly? I’m taking the Chargers by default but not by 9 points. It will probably be a 6-7 point game. All I really care about is that Bowe and Gates have pretty good games. This is one of those “the only reason this game matters is for fantasy” games. Kansas City 20, San Diego 26.

DEN vs CIN (+3.5) - Peyton Manning has been my favorite player for ten years and that is not stopping because he’s in a new uniform. He has been MVP-like so far, and I expect that to continue. The Bengals just aren’t a great team. The Broncos are looking more and more like they are going to be the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. I’m not ready to go there yet, but they are improving every game. I’ll take Peyton comfortably, but not in a blowout. Denver 27, Cincinnati 16.

BAL vs CLE (+3.5) - Apparently I am a Browns expert. And I think this game will be close. But not close enough. One possession win for Baltimore coming off a bye. That defense needs to get sured up though, they got really bad really fast. Trent Richardson is the real deal. Baltimore 23, Cleveland 17.

ARI vs GB (-10.5) - There’s a new rule I’m abiding by when picking games: NEVER take the Pack to cover a huge spread. I took the Jags and the points last week and I was right on that one. Green Bay is being spotted 10 points and although they are at home, the Cardinals have a pretty good defense and might be able to move the ball this week. The Packers will win, but I’m betting against them with the points here. Arizona 17, Green Bay 27.

CHI vs TEN (+3.5) - I picked this upset preseason. I had the Titans upsetting the Lions earlier this year from preseason and picked against them, but Tennessee ended up winning that game. I haven’t learned my lesson yet. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. So if I get this wrong, I’ll learn never to bet against myself when picking the Titans at home ever again. I’ve been pushing the Bears for months now, and I’m not stopping here. There are three things certain in life: death, taxes, and Cutler to Marshall. Actually there is a fourth: Bears D getting a pick 6. Chicago 27, Tennessee 17.

MIA vs IND (+2.5) - Raise your hand if you had the Dolphins and Colts both sitting at 4-3 coming into Week 9 when the season started. What a coincidence, I don’t see any hands. Both teams are sporting their successful rookie quarterbacks and the winner of this game will be 5-3, and actually have an inside track to the playoffs. What’s even more surprising to me, is how Ryan Tannehill is favored on the road against Andrew Luck! What??? The Dolphins are sneakily good, but Indy is just too strong in their dome. Miami 24, Indianapolis 27.

CAR vs WAS (-3.5) - The Cam Newton bandwagon didn’t last very long, did it? I thought this team would be a playoff contender, but they have really fallen off track. From top to bottom, this has been an unsuccessful franchise since they made the Super Bowl ten years ago, except for the one year they made the NFC Championship Game. RGIII is the new craze, and I think he outplays Cam in this one. The difference is going to be the running game. Carolina 16, Washington 21.

DET vs JAC (+3.5) - UPSET SPECIAL. I only got one of these right last week but overall this season, by upset picks have been pretty spot on, either winning outright or at least beating the spread. The Jags played pretty tough in Green Bay last week and I don’t like the Lions on the road. They will neutralize Megatron, and I think that Jacksonville’s offense will be good enough to score some points. Detroit 17, Jacksonville 20.

BUF vs HOU (-10.5) - History has proven that I hate big spreads. I rarely pick the favorite in these scenarios. However...the Bills can’t stop the run and the Texans live on exactly that. Arian Foster gets 167 and 2 TD. The Bills have given up 45 points multiple times this season, and I smell a blowout here. Buffalo 16, Houston 34.

TB vs OAK (-1.5) - Both of these teams are 3-4 and have had some impressive performances this season. The loser will virtually be out of playoff contention, while the winner will be sitting at .500 with a shot at the postseason. I’ll take the Raiders because they are at home. And that’s the only reason. This is the definition of a straight-up pick’em game. No result would surprise me. Tampa Bay 21, Oakland 24.

MIN vs SEA (-4.5) - Another desperation game! The loser of this battle will not make the playoffs, and while the winner might not either, whoever comes out on top is going to have a winning record. The Seahawks are lethal at home, and I do think they are going to win this game, but this is a tough spread to work with. I’m going to play with fire here: Seattle wins, but either by 3 or 4, which means I’m taking the Vikings and the points. And the Seahawks do go on to make the playoffs. Minnesota 16, Seattle 19.

PIT vs NYG (-3.5) - There’s an annoying amount of 3.5 point spreads this week, which is a nightmare for betting. This game is a heavyweight match-up between two quarterbacks drafted in 2004 who each have 2 Super Bowl rings and are fantastic at converting third downs and are efficient in the fourth quarter. The difference in this one? Still no Polamalu. Giants are on a roll, and they will not let another 23-point lead get away from them again. Pittsburgh 22, New York 27.

DAL vs ATL (-4.5) - This game sucks. I hate both these teams. I want the Falcons to lose so that they are not undefeated, but the Cowboys don’t know how to win close games, which is what Atlanta has been doing all season. Throw in the fact that the Falcons are almost unbeatable at home, and you have a recipe for a blowout. But there’s no way this is an easy win. Dallas might not win many games, but they have enough talent to always hang around, and I think this game will be decided by single digits. Unfortunately for Big D, I think it will be somewhere between 5-9. So the Falcons cover and move to 8-0, and Dallas loses again. Dallas 24, Atlanta 30.

PHI vs NO (-3.5) - I’ve talked a lot about desperation games for this week, and this one is the mother of them all, a shootout on Monday Night. The Eagles are 3-4 and are potentially just one loss away from benching Michael Vick and firing Andy Reid. Meanwhile, the Saints are 2-5 and have been deeply affected by the bounty punishments. If they lose then their season is over; no way they climb out of a 2-6 hole. This one will be very high scoring with neither team wanting to give up. And I like the team that owns the Superdome. The Eagles have one shot of turning their season around: FREE SHADY. This season, Philly is 3-0 when McCoy has 20+ carries, and 0-4 when he has less than that. Those numbers are similar throughout his career. Yet Andy Reid refuses to feed his stud. It’s so frustrating to watch. I think that the Eagles will try throwing too much, and in a shootout, Michael Vick can’t beat Drew Brees. The chaos for the Eagles will continue. Philadelphia 27, New Orleans 38.