Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

We’ve finally made it. Tonight, a champion will be crowned, and another team will be added to the immortal ranks of Super Bowl winners. After a wild season, the final chapter of 2013 in the NFL will not be shocking, no matter the result of the game. The Broncos and the Seahawks were the two best teams in their respective conferences all year long, and their clash will provide us with nothing short of a powerhouse duel. A historic offense will will try to defeat a terrifying defense, although people seem to forget that only accounts for half the game. But with respect to Seattle’s offense and Denver’s defense, the most captivating part of this battle will be, of course, Peyton Manning trying to figure out Richard Sherman and the relentless D of the Seahawks. Every aspect of this game will be accounted for in this preview, including my pick, statistical predictions, and my favorite prop bets, but first a few thoughts about the Conference Championship Games.

On the AFC side, Denver dominated New England. There’s no simpler way to say it. They had the ball forever, they could run and pass at will, and Peyton Manning rarely missed a throw. The Broncos’ defense held Tom Brady to three points until the fourth quarter, including shutting down the running game that had yielded SIX touchdowns for the Pats the week before. One important note about this game: I didn’t think the Welker hit on Aqib Talib was a dirty play. People are only whining about it because Talib was sidelines afterward, which did, admittedly, impact the rest of the game; did you see Demaryius Thomas go off right after that? But Welker’s play wasn’t as dirty as people made it out to seem. He did make a surprisingly hard hit for a wide receiver, but it was a pick play, and football is a physical sport. I wouldn’t have minded if it was called a penalty, but it would have been for offensive pass interference, NOT unnecessary roughness. Either way, the Broncos dismantled the Patriots and deserve to be here.

The 49ers-Seahawks game lived up to the hype and exceeded it. This was as close a perfect game of football as you can get. Each team was physical and determined from the opening kick, and every moment of all four quarters was thrilling. Kaepernick ran wild; Marshawn Lynch went Beast Mode; Kaep had a ridiculous jump-throw to Boldin for a TD; Wilson followed that up with a gorgeous 4th and 7 strike to Kearse to take the lead; NaVorro Bowman gave his knee trying to make a play; and in the end, Richard Sherman had the last laugh with an incredible play. The final score was 23-17, a defensive struggle that also saw its share of scoring thanks to some dynamic plays. Kaepernick, although he did play a hell of a game, did finish it off with fumble-interception-interception on his final three drives in a one-score game, something that did make me very happy. However, much respect has to be given to him and San Francisco as a team; although they haven’t won the Super Bowl, they have made the NFC title game (or beyond) for three consecutive years, which is a phenomenal achievement in a league that is supposed to have parity. And of course, I have one final thought about what everyone was talking about: the Richard Sherman outburst, while shocking, was completely overblown. Did he handle that moment the way you would want your child to handle it? No. But confidence is what he is about; he will never shy away from anything, and two minutes beforehand he made the play to send his team to the Super Bowl. After three hours of battling the team and specifically player (Crabtree) that he has a huge rivalry with. He is not a bad person, a thug, or any term you wish to use. He is arrogant, but if that is someone’s worst quality, is it really so much of a problem? Speaking of arrogance, let me show off some of the predictions I had for this game. The first numbers will be my guesses, followed by the actual results.

Wilson: 16-24, 202 yds, TD, fumble; 16-25, 215 yds, TD, fumble

Kaepernick: 14-26, 176 yds, TD, 2 INT; 14-24, 153 yds, TD, 2 INT

Final Score: SEA 24-17; SEA 23-17

Let’s just say I’m coming into the Super Bowl on a roll. And now, onto the big game.

I’ve thought about a lot of ways how to do this, because I want to throw a lot of different predictions about this game into my preview. Although I wanted to leave some suspense for the end before revealing my pick, I figure that all my stat and prop predictions would make a lot more sense if you already knew the big picture. So, without further ado, here is my pick for Super Bowl XLVIII...

SEA vs DEN (-2.5) - That’s right, I think the DENVER BRONCOS will win the Super Bowl tonight, in the absolutely incredible battle that everyone is hoping it will be. Historically, logic says you should pick the number one DEFENSE over the number one offense, but I’m not making this pick with my head. I picked Denver to win it all before the season, but more importantly, Peyton Manning has been my favorite football player for 10 years now, and I would want more than anything for him to win his second ring. If the Seahawks do win, I’ll be disappointed, but not angry; I still do like Seattle a lot, and would be fine if they won, so long as it wasn’t the Patriots or 49ers hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Peyton Manning has owned the season ever since christening it with seven touchdowns on opening night. He just won his FIFTH MVP award, after setting records for passing yards, passing touchdowns, and points scored in a single season. The line on this one is only two and a half points (although a real argument could be made that Seattle should be favored), which made it easy for me to pick them to cover as well. So now that you know you I’m picking to win, I’ll give you all my other predictions right now, and cap it all off with a recap later. Go Broncos! Seattle 20, Denver 27

Stats

Manning: 26-41, 303 yds, 2 TD, INT

Wilson: 18-32, 223 yds, TD, INT, 18 rush yds

Moreno: 18 rush, 71 yds, TD, 3 rec, 14 yds, TD

Lynch: 25 rush, 87 yds, TD

D Thomas: 5 rec, 72 yds, TD

Decker: 6 rec, 107 yds

Welker: 4 rec, 46 yds, 3 third down conversions

J Thomas: 3 rec, 22 yds

Baldwin: 6 rec, 82 yds

Tate: 5 rec, 66 yds

Harvin: 2 rec, 18 yds

Kearse: 2 rec, 31 yds, TD

Prater: 2/2 FG, 31 and 49

Hauschka: 2/2 FG, 26 and 35

Here are my offensive statistical predictions for you, as defense is too random to guess for specific players. However, I will say that Manning’s interception will NOT be made by any of the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom secondary; it will come on either A) a tipped-up ball by a defensive lineman, or B) a linebacker that showed blitz but dropped into coverage. Richard Sherman will be limited because the Broncos will move Thomas around so it won’t be one-on-one the whole night; the man in the secondary to watch is Earl Thomas, a just-as-talented-but-much-quieter safety. As far as the receivers go, I think Demaryius Thomas will get in the end zone tonight, but not have the best statistical performance on the team because he will be shadowed by the aforementioned Sherman throughout. I think the best bet out of the Denver receivers to get to 100 yards is Decker, who hasn’t had a huge playoff performance yet. I think Percy Harvin will be a relative non-factor for the Seahawks, along with the weather everyone has been so obsessed with, although he will be used as a decoy. Each of these teams has a superb rush defense, which is why I think both main running backs will be held under 100 yards in this game--this is a much bigger deal for Seattle, as so much of their offensive success comes from running the ball. Even though I have Lynch getting into the end zone, I think he fails to hit triple digits and is held under four yards a carry. Moreno will have the same limited success against the vaunted front seven of the ‘Hawks, but I do think he finds the end zone twice, once on the ground and the other in the air, which would have made him a great pick for MVP if it wasn’t destined to go to Manning in the event of a Denver victory. As for the QBs, I think Wilson, for as great as he’s been in two years, will be a little rattled out of the gate. He’ll be off-target the first time he’s faced with a third and long. He is a very poised and confident young man, but this is quite a big stage, and I think he struggles in the first quarter before turning it on in the second half. And now to Peyton. I think that he will have a little trouble figuring out Seattle’s secondary, but he’s too good to stop forever. He throws it enough times to get to 300 yards, but will turn it over once. He will have exactly two touchdowns, the first to Thomas, and the second to Moreno late in the fourth quarter to break a 20-20 tie and win the game. But more on that later.

Props

This is the very fun part of making Super Bowl predictions: prop bets! You can bet on anything from the length of the National Anthem, the result of the coin toss, what color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach, and who the Super Bowl MVP will thank first in his speech. I’m going to go through my favorites, some important and some just for fun.

1. UNDER 47.5 points: I think this will be a relatively low scoring game, like the SF-SEA game a couple of weeks ago. My predicted score was 27-20, giving us 47, but that is the absolute highest I think the score can go. Seattle will score around 20, but as good as Peyton is, I don’t think he gets to 30 against this defense. Under 47.5 is the way to go here, especially since both teams like to extend drives and eat up clock on their possessions.
2. Percy Harvin UNDER 3.5 receptions (+135): I don’t think he’ll be a big factor tonight.
3. Knowshon Moreno WILL score a touchdown (+110), or even better, Moreno to score the LAST touchdown (+800)
4. Eric Decker OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115), and between 101-110 (+1500)
5. Virgil Green will have AT LEAST ONE reception (+120): Cousin Sal talked about this on the BS Report will Bill Simmons last week, and I think this one comes true.
6. Doug Baldwin +15.5 receiving yards vs Wes Welker (-105): I think he’ll have more straight up, and he’s getting 16 yards against a short yardage receiver facing a suffocating D?
7. Super Bowl MVP: obviously, I would say Peyton Manning (+110), because I think he’s going to win, but some value bets are Moreno (+1700), Lynch (+450), and how about Trindon Holliday (+8000) in case there is special teams magic?
8. ORANGE (+275) or RED (+750) for the color of the Gatorade bath.
9. Jermaine Kearse OVER 11.5 yards on first catch (+110): Because this was the only Kearse prop I could find.
10. Peyton Manning passing yards between 301-320 (+800): I think by volume and the plethora of weapons around him, Manning barely eclipses 300 yards, putting a nice bow on a Super Bowl victory.

So if you are going to bet (my 21st birthday is on Wednesday, so I’ll be very excited for next year’s props), these are the wagers that I would target. Prop bets are a lot of fun, because you get to sit there with your family and friends shouting things like “GET OFF YOUR ASS, VIRGIL GREEN!”, or if you’re feeling really bold and unpatriotic, “HURRY UP WITH THE ANTHEM I NEED IT TO BE UNDER 139.5 SECONDS!”, or you get completely obsessed with how many times Peyton Manning yells the word “Omaha!” -- for the record, if I made this bet, I would go with the UNDER 28.5 (+105)...but if you do any of these things you probably have a gambling problem.

So there you have it, my Super Bowl XLVIII predictions. I’m picking the Denver Broncos to defeat the Seattle Seahawks 27-20, giving Peyton Manning his second ring. The game will be tied 3-3 after the first quarter before Manning hits Demaryius Thomas for a TD in the second; after that, Lynch will get his score, and the half will close on a Matt Prater field goal (13-10). The Seahawks will burst out in the second half with the Wilson TD to Kearse, the Manning interception, and Hauschka field goal giving Seattle a 20-13 lead. But in the late 3rd/early 4th quarter, Moreno will punch one in to tie the game, and after a Seattle punt after failing to convert on 3rd and 3 from the Denver 48, Manning will drive the Broncos 91 yards in 13 plays, hitting Knowshon Moreno out of the backfield for the game-winning 11 yard touchdown with 2:13 to go. Russell Wilson will give his best effort to come back, but his fourth down hail mary from midfield will fall incomplete, and the game will end. So it is written, so let it be done.

I mentioned this before, but the one aspect of this game that people aren’t giving much thought, and understandably so, is the matchup between the Seattle offense and Denver defense. The sexy matchup is Peyton vs the Legion of Boom, but on the other side of the ball, I think the Broncos have an advantage. The ‘Hawks main strength offensively is the running game, which Denver has been great against, especially in the playoffs against the Chargers and Patriots. I think that while the Seattle defense is terrific, there’s a very slim chance that Peyton will not still put up 24-27 points. So the question is, can Russell Wilson match that? I don’t think so. Lynch is good for a touchdown, but I think he gets held under 100 yards, which means that a majority of the points are going to have to be supplied by the second-year QB. He only threw for 250 or more yards four times this season, including the playoffs, and the last time he did so was December 2nd against the Saints, two months ago. That is also the last game he threw multiple touchdown passes. He has done just enough to win games with a loaded roster around him, and while I think he does have the talent and intangibles to win games, if he wants to win THIS particular game, he’s going to have to do more than just manage the offense. He’s going toe to toe with Peyton Manning to win a championship, so he’s going to have to put up 250 yards and 2 TDs if he wants to win. Even with Von Miller out, the Denver Broncos have a very underrated defense, and although they struggle most against the pass, that isn’t what the Seahawks are built for. To me, that was the deciding factor to pick the Broncos. If Peyton and the Seattle D play to a stalemate, I give the edge to Denver’s D than Seattle’s offense. Two things could prove me wrong: Wilson scrambling around and rushing for 75-100 yards, or Percy Harvin providing the firepower that has been lacking. But I’ll take my chances.

Finally, I want to end with Peyton Manning. He’s been my favorite football player since I was a kid, and there’s so much talk about his legacy, which is understandable, albeit annoying. Whether he wins or loses this game, it won’t prove that he can or can’t win big games in the playoffs. It’s his third time to the Super Bowl, which is three more than most players get to play in, and this game is basically a toss-up. Arguments can be made that by winning this game, Manning could officially become the “Greatest Quarterback Ever”, whatever that means to you. You can’t really compare the likes of Manning, Brady, Montana, Elway, Unitas, Marino, etc. If you think Super Bowl rings are the most important, than Montana and Bradshaw are on the top of your list; if you value statistical records, than Brett Favre is your guy. There will never be an answer to who is the best QB ever, but I think that I would not be out-of-bounds to say this: I think that Peyton Manning is the most talented quarterback ever. He is the perfect blend of size, power, accuracy, and especially brains. He is the smartest athlete I have ever seen, he is a Super Bowl champion, and by the time he retires he will be either first or second in the record books for almost every meaningful quarterbacking statistic. If you are constructing a hypothetical perfect quarterback based on the skills you think are most important, you’re taking more of Peyton to be in that guy than anyone else. That is my stance on his legacy, whether or not he wins this game tonight. There may not ever be an answer to who is the greatest, but if I could pick any QB in the history of the NFL to lead my team to victory in a vacuum, I’m taking Peyton.

I hope you liked this piece and read my weekly picks over the course of the season. I poured a lot of emotion into my football picks, so I appreciate it if you’ve made it this far. Enjoy the game everybody. Long live Peyton Manning.

2013 NFL Conference Championship Preview

Conference Championship Preview

HERE WE GO. The matchups that we all wanted. After a surprisingly pedestrian second round, I feel that we are left with the four best teams in the league. Sunday will be a historic day of games, with the two best contests that we could ever ask for. The first game is between the Patriots and Broncos for the AFC Championship, which means one thing: Brady vs Manning. Every time these two quarterbacks take the field, something special happens, and now we have a battle for a Super Bowl berth. Afterward, on the other side, we have the NFC will-be war between the 49ers and the Seahawks up in Seattle. To say that there will be blood is an understatement; I’m expecting at least two major injuries, including at least one concussion. These are the two most physical teams in the league, playing for the third time this season, and they absolutely hate each other. This year, the crowd in Seattle has set a world record for noise, and reportedly last week caused an EARTHQUAKE on Marshawn Lynch’s final touchdown run. The Niners have been blown out the last two times they went up to the Pacific Northwest, and Kaepernick, as good as he has looked in two playoff games, was utterly overmatched against the Legion of Boom secondary. There’s nothing left to say; each of these teams are so even with their opponents, that literally anything could happen. So instead of making long drawn-out paragraphs about each game, I’m just going to give my picks with my statistical predictions. I’m ready for two absolutely epic games.

NE (+5.5) vs DEN - Before you freak out and think I’m a traitor, I’m not picking the Patriots to win. I would never do that. But even I am not so blind to disrespect Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to think that they won’t stay within five points of Denver. The Pats are playing incredible football right now with the run and pass and I’m terrified that they are going to win this game outright. But I’m not going against my boy Peyton against the team I hate. Here are my stat predictions:

Brady: 21-33, 289 yds, 2 TD, INT

Manning: 24-37, 332 yds, 3 TD, INT

Blount: 13 rush, 41 yds

Ridley: 5 rush, 24 yds, TD, fumble

Vareen: 3 rush, 13 yds, 5 rec, 37 yds, TD

Moreno: 16 rush, 74 yds, TD

Edelman: 8 rec, 84 yds, TD

D Thomas: 5 rec, 72 yds

Decker: 4 rec, 81 yds, TD

Welker: 6 rec, 53 yds, TD

J Thomas: 4 rec, 62 yds, TD

Final Score: New England 27, Denver 31

SF vs SEA (-3.5) - While I don’t think that this game will be a blowout, I think the Seahawks continue their trend of kicking the 49ers’ asses physically at home and punching them in the mouth. The fans will cause another earthquake and break their own noise world record with the Super Bowl on the line. Kaepernick and the Niners will be forced to keeping burning useless timeouts from not being able to hear anything. The matchup to watch are the receivers for San Fran against the secondary of Seattle, and if thought the jawing between the 49ers and Carolina was bad last week, you ain’t seen nothing yet! This game will be electric all the way around, but when it comes down to it, I think that Russell Wilson will play his best game in two months, and make the big plays by moving around with his legs when it matters most.

Kaepernick: 14-26, 176 yds, TD, 2 INT, 34 rush yds

Wilson: 16-24, 202 yds, TD, fumble, 41 rush yds

Gore: 19 rush, 76 yds, TD

Lynch: 23 rush, 121 yds, 2 TD

Crabtree: 5 rec, 51 yds

Davis: 3 rec, 40 yds, TD

Tate: 7 rec, 90 yds, TD

Final Score: San Francisco 17, Seattle 24

Lock of the Week: NE (+5.5)

Performance of the Week: Marshawn Lynch, SEA

Surprise of the Week: Super Bowl will be Denver vs Seattle. Let’s go.

2013 NFL Divisional Round Preview

Divisional Round Preview

What a wild (card) weekend! Three of the four games were fabulous and exciting, and the outcomes were just as thrilling as three underdogs (if you include the Colts, who  were bet down to +2.5 by the time Saturday rolled around) were victorious. I was 2-0 in my AFC picks (Colts and Chargers), but 0-2 predicting the NFC (Eagles and Packers). The latter two teams were my eventual NFC Championship Game matchup, so I’m automatically 0-2 in advance for this weekend already, but maybe I’ll get the weekly picks correct. So here are some quick thoughts about the opening round before I preview our upcoming games.

First, what a comeback by the Indianapolis Colts! Andrew Luck, after starting out miserably, led a phenomenal comeback from 28 points down to eventually win a surprising shootout, 45-44. In that final quarter and a half, we all witnessed the potential greatness that has yet to come from Luck, who is said to be the best quarterback prospect since Manning and Elway. He obviously still has a lot of growth and learning to do, but the display of heart, determination, and poise he showed as a second-year QB was awe-inspiring. He has all the skill and intangibles to become one of the greatest ever, and while he is nowhere near that point yet, that upside is real. The two plays from Saturday’s game to prove that were his fumble recovery into a touchdown that displayed his presence of mind, and his final touchdown pass to T.Y. Hilton which was an absolute laser beam off his arm. I’ve been raving for a year and a half about how it was the right choice to take him over RGIII, and with that performance last Saturday, I believe that argument has been officially put to rest. Congratulations to Andrew Luck on his first playoff win, and there will be many more to come. As for the Chiefs, that loss is inexcusable. An offense that was underwhelming all year had put up 38 points early in the third quarter without Jamaal Charles! Yes, they got bad luck from injuries, but for Alex Smith to be absolutely brilliant (which should not be forgotten) for a half and then not be able to get enough first downs just to keep the clock rolling late? I mean, they were up four touchdowns and then then couldn’t even move the ball! As dominating as their defense was during the season, they really blew it in this one. If the offense isn’t moving the ball and chewing clock, it’s up to the defense to create one final turnover (or at least enough stops) to put the nail in the coffin and stay alive in the playoffs. How did they disappear? Much blame has to be given to the play calling and clock management of Andy Reid (how many times have we said that before?), which ruined an awesome first half. In the end, the Colts made more plays at the end of the game, and they deserved to win. We saw their ceiling to close that game, and it is out of reach from anything Kansas City could do moving forward.

I’ll be able to sum up the other three games much more quickly. On Saturday night, New Orleans proved that they could win a road playoff game in a highly contested matchup with Philadelphia. The Eagles didn’t play up to their normal level from the past couple of months, but in the first playoffs for Nick Foles and Chip Kelly, they performed as well as can be expected. This year put Philly on the map, and they will have to be considered the NFC East favorites heading into next season. This game was more about the Saints, and Drew Brees overcoming a subpar game to still lead the team to victory at the end. Brees and Payton were better than Foles and Kelly, and also deserve to be playing this coming weekend. Unfortunately for them, they have to go back up to Seattle, where they really got their asses handed to them on a rowdy Monday Night. More on that game later on.

The Chargers played a very impressive game on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati by taking down the Bengals 27-10. This was surprising to a lot of people, but not to me if you’ve read anything I’ve ever written. I picked them to win outright, and it was really quite obvious. San Diego was the “team of destiny” heading into the postseason, as the team that was insanely lucky just to be there, and those teams ALWAYS win in the first round. This is very similar to the NCAA tournament where one of the winners of the stupid play-in games continues their momentum into the main bracket. Additionally, the Bengals may win games in the regular season (many by beating inferior teams at home), but they had proven nothing in the playoffs, and have a knack of disappointing you when you actually think they might be good. I said this in the Week 16 game leading up to their loss to Pittsburgh on a nationally televised game. The combo of Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis cannot win a big game, and this was proven once again, even in a home game against an inferior opponent. I was actually more confident in Andrew Luck to win his playoff game when they were down 28 points than I was in Andy Dalton even when they were up 10-7 at the half. The Chargers are legitimately scary, and there’s a real chance they can take down Denver.

Finally, the 49ers and Packers ended the weekend with another nail-biter that ended the same way as their previous matchups: Colin Kaepernick (sleeveless!!!) taking control and winning the game. In incredibly frigid conditions, the Niners were tough enough to hang around and although Kaep did not have a great passing day, he was a menace on the ground, including the final third down run to get his team into field goal range. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were stifled in the first half, and although they performed much better later on, they couldn’t quite finish it off. But don’t worry, Green Bay---your team is going to be in at least the NFC Championship Game next year, you can mark that down. One final note to all the debbie downers out there on television: Yes, of course the Packers held on that crazy escape play by Aaron Rodgers, but who cares? It doesn’t take away from the athleticism of Rodgers, and it didn’t cost the 49ers the game, so stop harping on it. And now, finally, to this week’s action.

NO vs SEA (-7.5) - Yeah, the win for the Saints was great. Whatever. This line was actually bet down to seven and a half because so many people are riding the Saints. These people will lose money. Have people forgotten the 34-7 beatdown that the Seahawks put on the Saints just a few weeks ago? The crowd in Seattle is probably going to set ANOTHER noise record now that it is the playoffs, and while a win in Philly is nice, traveling up to the Pacific Northwest is a whole different deal. The Seahawks feast on people there, and with everyone praising the Saints and especially the Niners, the dominance of the Hawks has actually gone under the radar. This will change immediately. I know I had the Seahawks losing to the Packers in my future playoff predictions last week, but that was exclusively because I think the Packers are terrifying, and they will be next year. I am not, however, afraid of the Saints. There are three lines this week of at least a touchdown, and this is the one I would feel most confident betting the favorite. It might not be another 27-point smackdown, but the Seahawks will be on point and take control early and often. Three turnovers for Brees, and only one for Russell Wilson, with three total touchdowns for the latter. New Orleans 17, Seattle 31

IND (+7) vs NE - I already gave all my praise to Andrew Luck and the Colts in the opening paragraphs, so I won’t continue that here. I really have no idea how this one is going to play out, but there is only one scenario I’m very confident about not happening: a Colts blowout win. The Patriots suffered ANOTHER major injury this week in losing Brandon Spikes, which is crushing to their front lines. I don’t know how they keep continuing to win time after time, but even I will say that the performances by Brady and Belichick this season have been masterful. The Pats have only lost in this round once with Brady (2010 to the J-E-T-S!), but I say that the Colts put up a fight, even if I think that they will ultimately fall short of taking down New England. But I’ll ask you this: after watching the Colts come back from down 28 to win a game outright, how big of a lead are you comfortable with the Patriots having without fearing that Andrew Luck can get back to within seven? I don’t know if there is one. And since that’s the case, I’m taking the Colts and the seven points. However, while Andrew Luck is and will be great, they won’t have enough firepower to keep pace. Brady will be surgical, and complete 70% of his passes with one of those quick QB sneaks for a touchdown. I’m predicting another big game (I was right about him in Week 17!) for Julian Edelman. Belichick will set his gameplan around stopping Hilton, so for the Colts, the guy who needs to step up for them to get a victory, besides Donald Brown, is Coby Fleener controlling the middle of the field. Indianapolis 27, New England 30

SF (-1.5) vs CAR - This is a pick completely with my head and not with my heart, because I want with all my heart for the Carolina Panthers to come out of the NFC. However, there is no way that we are going to have both one and two seeds in the conference championship games, and the 49ers have proven that they can win playoff games on the road. I’m confident in the Panthers because they already beat the Niners this year in San Fran, but they will be playing a much hotter team this time around and be with only a limited Steve Smith. Furthermore, I feel like we are destined to have a San Francisco vs Seattle NFC Championship. It’s going to happen, and I’m telling you to quite literally bet on it right now. The Carolina Panthers have had a miraculous transformation with the maturation of Cam Newton, the growth of balls by Ron Rivera, and the sudden scariness of their defense as a unit. As of right now they are my pick to face and lose to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game next year. But they aren’t build to win it all just yet. They are missing a couple of key pieces, namely a young stud receiver (sorry Brandon LaFell, you’re not that guy), and depth in the secondary. They will be back next year I have no doubt, but the 49ers are better than them right now, especially with Michael Crabtree back (early prediction: top 10 fantasy receiver next year). We are going to get a San Francisco vs Seattle round three, which will surely be just as thrilling as the first two. I’m picking the Niners, but will be rooting for the Panthers. I’ll take Cam with more rushing yards than Kaepernick, but Kaep with more total touchdowns. San Francisco 23, Carolina 17

SD (+9.5) vs DEN - It’s probably stupid that I’m betting against (at least, with the points) Brady and Manning at home in the playoffs. But odds are, one of these favorites is going to lose, and this is a big line. The Chargers are on a roll, and they just beat the Broncos in Denver a month ago. Sure, the circumstances have changed, but the point is that the line for that previous matchup was 9 points and San Diego won outright. Now you have the Bolts streaking, a recent road win in their matchup, the Peyton Manning playing outdoors factor, and the line is half a point higher? There is always a round two upset, and honestly, this game probably has the best potential to be it, for all the reasons listed above. I’m terrified that the Broncos might lose this game, but I don’t want to think that way because of how badly I want Peyton to win a second ring. Even if he does fall short of that goal, it can NOT be in his first game, at home against the once 5-7 Chargers. Their defense is soft without Von Miller in there, and we’re talking about a unit that couldn’t stop San Diego even when he was playing. The one scary aspect of this pick is going against the 600-point scoring Broncos, in the chill of the playoffs I don’t think Peyton has what it takes to simply run away from a team. The Chargers are going to hang around by controlling the clock and Philip Rivers being efficient, and I think they keep it close enough. In the end, I can’t call the upset because I’ll be rooting for Denver, but just know that I’ll be freaking out over this one until the game is over. There are always upsets this weekend and I ended up not picking any, but if there is one I think it will be one the AFC side. But hopefully not in this one. Rivers throws for 262 yards and 3 TDs, and Peyton will have 338 yards and 3 scores, two to Eric Decker. San Diego 24, Denver 31

Lock of the Week: SEA (-7)

Performance of the Week: Russell Wilson, Coby Fleener, Michael Crabtree, NaVorro Bowman, Eric Decker, Eric 

Weddle

Surprise of the Week: Golden Globe predictions! 12 Years a Slave wins for Best Drama and Best Actor, Wolf of Wall Street wins for Best Comedy and Best Actor. Go Leo!

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions + Wild Card Weekend

Wild Card Weekend + Playoff Predictions

Happy New Year, and Happy Playoffs, football fans! After four months of waiting, we have finally reached 2014 and the first round of the NFL postseason. We were witnesses to history in Denver (Manning), scandal in New England (Hernandez), and many significant injuries along the way (Rodgers, Wayne, Gronkowski, etc). We saw the breakouts of Nick Foles (and Chip Kelly), the Carolina Panthers, Josh Gordon, Jamaal Charles, Alshon Jeffrey, and Zac Stacy; the resurgence of Philip Rivers, the New Orleans Saints, and almost Carson Palmer; and the demise of the Washington Redskins, Josh Freeman, and the Detroit Lions. Week 17 itself was pretty wild as expected, with dramatic wins and playoff berths for the Packers, Chargers, and Eagles. I will delve into the events of the regular season at a later time, but this piece is all about looking into the future. The playoffs start today with two great matchups: Chiefs vs Colts, and Saints vs Eagles. In this post, I’ll provide picks for all four of these weekend’s games (and go round by round each week) with some specific player predictions as well as a shot at the entire playoff picture right now to see how accurately I can bet on the next month of action. In my Official 2013 NFL Predictions from before the season, I correctly selected 7 out of the 12 playoff teams to make the postseason; I picked Denver and Seattle to be the number one seeds in their respective conferences which came true, and my best team pick was to take the Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs. Of course, I had plenty of bad picks too, but we’re not going to talk about that right now. Let’s get right into the week’s picks, and I’ll finish up with my predictions for the entire playoffs.

KC vs IND (+1.5) - When I looked at the line yesterday, the Colts were still favored by a point, but the line swung really dramatically right before the game. Either way, I’m taking the Colts, and not just because they convincingly won in KC a couple of weeks ago either. The Chiefs have been fairly predictable all year; they beat up on bad teams early on in the season, but really struggled down the stretch against playoff talent. The Colts have been exactly the opposite, getting blown out by the Rams, Bengals, and Cardinals, but also incredibly defeating the 49ers, Broncos, and Seahawks. The Colts step up against top teams, while the Chiefs falter. The key to beating Kansas City is to contain Jamaal Charles, and Indy has the manpower and the home crowd behind them. Andrew Luck has been unbelievable thus far in his career, and will continue to progress along his path to superstardom. Last year, he led the Colts to a Wild Card berth but lost his first playoff game against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens. This year, he won the division, and will win his first playoff game. Indy gets ahead early on a defensive touchdown and never looks back, forcing Alex Smith to try to beat them. Smith will throw two touchdowns, but Andrew Luck will throw for 275 and have two touchdowns of his own. Donald Brown will also get into the end zone by reception, and Robert Mathis will have 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble. The Colts will move on to either Denver or New England. Kansas City 17, Indianapolis 24

NO vs PHI (-3) - This has less to do with Philly as it does with New Orleans’ immense struggles in the outdoors. The Saints are dominant at home, where they were 8-0 and were basically a lock for 30 points a game, but that won’t do much good as the six seed. They are a completely different team on the road, where they finished 3-5. Does a truly great team have a losing record on the road? I say no. Their three road wins? Tampa by two, before they were not atrocious; Chicago by eight, and Atlanta by four after they were atrocious. For some reason, they can’t perform nearly as well away from the Superdome, and don’t have Pierre Thomas for this game either. This is a bigger deal than you think, because Drew Brees has spent an extraordinary amount of time passing to his running backs Thomas and Sproles this season rather than his wide outs. The Eagles are red hot, and are riding Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy for all they are worth. Usually Drew Brees and Sean Payton are the QB-coach duo you think of when picturing a dynamic duo, but Foles and Kelly are quickly taking that title from them, especially outdoors. Big advantage for the Eagles with snow on the ground, and they will bring their blistering pace into Carolina next week. Brees has 350 yards and two touchdowns, but will have to throw it 53 times with two turnovers as well, including the dagger in the fourth quarter. Foles will have a more modest 284 yards and a TD or two, but the superstar day will be had by Shady. New Orleans 20, Philadelphia 31

SD (+7) vs CIN - How the hell did the Chargers even get in the playoffs? It took an incredible missed field goal, a ludicrous no-call, and major luck in overtime to barely get past the Kansas City second stringers. Then they received the necessary help with Baltimore and Miami each losing (Side note: what are you doing, Miami? They got shut out by the Bills and lost at home to Geno Smith to end the season, when one win would have got them in the playoffs). Pittsburgh should feel very slighted about missing out on the postseason, but in fairness, they were only 8-8, so they don’t have much beef. Anyway, the Chargers may be lucky to have gotten the six seed in the AFC, but they are a very dangerous squad. They have a tremendous advantage at the quarterback position which is a huge bonus in a road playoff game. They just beat the Broncos in Denver, so going into Cincinnati will not scare the Chargers one bit. The Bengals might have gone 8-0 at home, but if you’ve read my picks all season, you know that I am not sold on them. Even if they win a playoff game, which is something that Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis have never done, they are going to get throttled by New England next week, so what’s the fun in picking them. The Chargers are led by a playoff veteran and have already proved that they could go into Mile High and beat Peyton Manning, which is what they would have to do in the second round. I think Philip Rivers continues his bounce-back season and picks apart Cincy for 300 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, and Ryan Matthews. Ryan Matthews (if healthy) and Danny Woodhead will combine for 7 catches and 150 rushing yards. On the other side, Andy Dalton will throw three interceptions, and if the Chargers are smart they will double team AJ Green all day. A possible x-factor for the Bengals: Giovani Bernard. Ladies and gentlemen, we have our first playoff UPSET ALERT! San Diego 27, Cincinnati 14

SF vs GB (+3) - This is a tremendous matchup, especially now that Aaron Rodgers is back. I still have no idea how Green Bay got into the postseason; Aaron Rodgers missed almost half the season, as did Randall Cobb, while Clay Matthews has been out for an extended period of time as well. Yet they hung around in the suddenly awful NFC North and won miraculously in Chicago to end the season. Those three converted fourth downs were magnificent, especially the game-winning play from Rodgers to Cobb with under a minute to play. The Pack are going to go on in F-U mode at some point soon now that their QB is back; it will either be in these playoffs, or a run into late January next year. At full strength, their offense is terrifying with Rodgers, Lacy, Nelson, Jones, and Cobb. The tough part about this pick is that Colin Kaepernick has torched the Packers twice in a row now with his arms and legs, and the Niners are on a strong winning streak. After looking vulnerable early in the season, San Francisco has looked dominant the last few weeks, and almost stole the NFC West from the Seahawks. Michael Crabtree, while not lighting up the stat sheet, has provided depth for the passing attack that thus far was centralized around Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. The 49ers will be ready for a battle with the aforementioned studs and Frank Gore still pumping out first downs on the ground. There are two factors that swayed my decision to take the Cheeseheads, not including the fact that I hate the Niners and like the Packers: first, that it’s Aaron Rodgers playing at home; second, that it is going to be negative degrees in Lambeau Field on Sunday. People who say weather doesn’t make a difference in sports is kidding themselves; going from warm weather to negative temperature is a significant change. Give me the Packers to finally take down the 49ers in a clash worthy of being the NFC Championship Game. Kaepernick will have 324 total yards and a touchdown and turnover each. Frank Gore will have a throwback performance of 100 yards and a TD, but the defense will struggle if Rodgers can successfully spread them out wide. Aaron Rodgers will throw for 300 yards with two touchdowns, while Eddie Lacy will punch a touchdown in late in the game. Out of the three top Green Bay receivers, I think that Jordy Nelson will have the biggest night with over 100 yards and at least one touchdown. I’ll take the over on at least 50% players that wear sleeves, even though all football players try to be macho like it proves something. The Packers move on to the divisional round. San Francisco 24, Green Bay 27

So now that we’ve taken care of the picks this weekend, let’s take a look at my predictions for the entire postseason. Before the year I took Denver to win the Lombardi Trophy...will I keep my pick the same?

AFC                                                                                             NFC

6 SD     27                            5 KC      17                                     6 NO     20                                   5 SF      24

3 CIN   14                            4 IND   24                                     3 PHI   31                                    4 GB     27

6 SD      24                          4 IND    23                                    4 GB     23                                   3 PHI    27

1 DEN   34                          2 NE      27                                     1 SEA   20                                   2 CAR   20

                      2 NE     31                                                                                      4 GB     31

                      1 DEN   34                                                                                     3 PHI   24

                                                                              Super Bowl

                                                                             1  DEN     31

                                                                             3  GB       27

Yes I will. I’m still picking the Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl, although that is hardly an objective pick. Firstly, I’ve had the Broncos winning it all since August, and they have done nothing to make me want to change my mind. Peyton Manning has had the greatest statistical season ever by a quarterback, and it’s hard to bet against that, even given his playoff track record and the recent loss of Von Miller. The NFC side of the playoff picture is much more interesting, as I do think the Green Bay Packers will make it to the Super Bowl now that Aaron Rodgers is back and ready to roll. I think that they will shock the world and take out the Seattle Seahawks in round two, and will meet the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game after the latter upsets the Carolina Panthers. I would love for the Panthers to get to the Super Bowl, but although they had a great season, I don’t think they have enough offensive weapons to make it there in Cam Newton’s first postseason. The Broncos will defeat the Pack in Giants Stadium in an offensive showdown between the two premiere quarterbacks in the NFL. I feel that it is now or never for Peyton Manning to win his second ring, because he will never be as good again as he was this year. Go Broncos, and good luck to all your teams this weekend. Happy 2014, and Happy Playoffs.

Lock of the Week: IND (+1.5)

Performance of the Week: LeSean McCoy, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Mathis

Surprise of the Week: Chargers over Bengals!

2013 NFL Week 17 Preview

Week 17 Preview

We’ve finally made it to the final week of the 2013 NFL regular season, and what a wild ride we’ve been on. I’d like to first congratulate all those out there who, unlike me, were able to win their fantasy football leagues this year; additionally, I hope everyone who celebrated it had a great Christmas, and that all of you readers have a Happy New Year as well. But now, to football. We are not much closer to understanding these teams than we were four months ago--after 16 games, only the Kansas City Chiefs are locked into a playoff spot, which is the 5th seed in the AFC. However, when the clock ticks to zero in Dallas on Sunday Night, we will know exactly who has made the playoffs, and which positions the teams shall be in. There has been two instances of major quarterback news to arrive over the last couple of days. The Green Bay Packers announced that Aaron Rodgers will return to the starting lineup on Sunday to take on the Bears. If the former MVP can put together a winning effort in his return, than miraculously, the Pack will make the playoffs despite Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn under center for half the season. Conversely, there was sadder news to come out of Dallas, as we learned that Tony Romo, following a fantastic comeback win against Washington, will miss the rest of the season with a herniated disk in his back. Although I actively root against the Cowboys, I do feel bad for Tony Romo; his career has been a tragedy since the bobbled snap in Seattle, and whether he won or lost on Sunday night, I still would have liked to see him out there with a chance to maybe have things go right for him. As for the rest of the games, they will be discussed in a manner of moments, and some of my predictions will be based on who I want to see in the playoffs, but I will make those feelings clear so that you know to take my pick with a grain of salt. I’ll try to sprinkle in some extra, more specific predictions throughout the piece if I can, but I will save the major stuff for the playoff games. For now, let’s just sit back and enjoy a Sunday full of all 16 games, with the playoffs just 60 minutes away for many teams.

CAR vs ATL (+6.5) - The Falcons deserved to lose on Monday Night to the 49ers, but had a chance at the end of the game to shock the world and throw the NFC playoff picture into a frenzy. Had Atlanta punched the ball in from ten yards out in the final minute, Seattle would have already clinched the NFC West and the top seed, while San Francisco would be in a dogfight with the Cardinals in Arizona this weekend for the final wild card spot, in danger of missing the postseason completely. This was not the case, but the Panthers were the team that was able to pull out a last second win and defeat the Saints for their biggest win of the season. Carolina is now firmly in position, with a win here, to go into January as NFC South Champions, and the two seed with a first round bye. Cam Newton has answered every challenge thrown his way this season, and should be very much in the running for second place in the MVP race (because let’s be honest, Peyton has locked up first). The only question left is if this team can seal the deal and win a division road game. So why take the points with Atlanta? Because this is always a close game, no matter what the records say. The Falcons will play with pride, and won’t roll over for anybody; Steve Smith is out for the Panthers, who don’t blow people out anyway; it is (allegedly) Tony Gonzalez’s last game as a pro, so there will be a lot of emotion; the Panthers might experience an emotional letdown after their huge win, while the Falcons have nothing to lose. However, DeAngelo Williams runs for 125 yards and a touchdown, and the Panthers will take the two seed. I picked them to make the playoffs before the season, but I had no idea they would be THIS good. Carolina 27, Atlanta 24

HOU (+7) vs TEN - This one will be much shorter. It is hard to comprehend the Houston Texans losing 14 games in a row, but that’s what we’re looking at. It’s also hard to imagine the Titans beating anybody by more than a touchdown. Houston 20, Tennessee 21

CLE vs PIT (-7) - The Browns showed promise early on in the season. I was obviously wrong about them making the playoffs. But they had halftime leads in each of their first six games; their quarterbacks were Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer, and Jason Campbell; Josh Gordon has blossomed into an unstoppable force; and they got a first round pick from the Trent Richardson trade that now looks like a masterpiece. Their putrid record does not indicate the performance of this team in 2013. They will be back, sooner rather than later. As for the Steelers, they are somehow still in the playoff hunt after starting out 0-4. They need to win this game and have losses from the Ravens, Dolphins, AND Chargers. This will most likely not happen, but that doesn’t mean they won’t take care of their part. Cleveland 17, Pittsburgh 34

WAS vs NYG (-3.5) - I know I’m going to be absolutely wrong about this, I have a horrible feeling about it. But the funniest part of this season still is, that even after this atrocity of a season for Washington, their top two pick goes to the St. Louis Rams. Farewell Mike Shanahan, and hopefully no farewell for Tom Coughlin--I still think he has the ability to rally the troops for a couple of more seasons to come. Also: beware of Kirk Cousins becoming the next Matt Flynn. Washington 20, New York 24

BAL (+6.5) vs CIN - This is blind faith. The Ravens really laid a goose egg against the Patriots last week, which was a huge letdown, and even in their previous win in Detroit they didn’t score a single touchdown. I still thought they had a chance to make a December run into the playoffs, but now this pick has become all heart and no head. If the Ravens win this game (and get the necessary help), than they will make the playoffs, with the Bengals falling to the 4th seed, where they will have to play Kansas City. This would be my dream scenario, so I’m making this an UPSET ALERT! Flacco needs to have a huge game, and the Ravens defense needs to do something that has been surprisingly hard to accomplish this season: stop Andy Dalton in Cincy. Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 17

JAC (+10.5) vs IND - Because the Colts never make anything look easy, except for beating really good teams, like they did last week by dismantling Kansas City. For all the inconsistency that Indy has shown this season, they really show up against top competition, as proved by their wins this year over KC, Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle. They are a team that could get bumped in the first round, or make it to the AFC Championship Game, and neither result would be particularly shocking. They established a nice gameplan for how to handle the Chiefs, and if they do indeed meet KC in the playoffs at home this time, they should have a considerable advantage. Even though he plays in a conference where Peyton Manning and Tom Brady still reign supreme, my original prediction for him coming out of college remains true: Andrew Luck will play in the Super Bowl sometime in his first five years as a pro. Jacksonville 17, Indianapolis 24

NYJ (+5.5) vs MIA - The Jets cannot make the playoffs, but they do still have a possibility of finishing 8-8, which is pretty incredible considering that they are starting an overwhelmed (for long stretches at a time) rookie at QB, lost Darrelle Revis on defense, and their second best receiver is Jeremy Kerley. Rex Ryan deserves to be back next year. As for the Dolphins, they had a chance to put themselves in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot last week in Buffalo and scored a whopping grand total of zero points. This team has talent but is not a contender, and a first round battle between Miami and Cincinnati would be unwatchable. They are not ready for the postseason yet, and the Jets are playing for potentially the head coach’s job. They will overpower the pathetic Dolphins’ offensive line, and be able to run the ball to eat up clock. Chris Ivory puts up DeAngelo Williams-like numbers this week to get our second UPSET ALERT. See you next year, Miami. By the way: this one goes to OT. New York 24, Miami 21

DET vs MIN (-2.5) - No Adrian Peterson? No problem. Stupid things happen in Week 17, and one of the things you should never do is pick the team who has quit on their coach. The Jim Schwartz era in Detroit is a lost cause, which is a shame because the Lions should have walked into the playoffs this year. They will play frustrated and make their usual boneheaded mistakes, and finish a disappointing year with a disappointing loss to the Vikings. Patterson and Jennings both break 100 yards. Detroit 27, Minnesota 31

GB (-3) vs CHI - The country will be watching the return of Aaron Rodgers. I have a sneaking suspicion that this will be an incredible sucker bet, but if it is, I’m going to fall in the trap as well. The Bears have been decent (besides the thrashing they took from the Eagles last week), but still not good enough to pull away from the hopeless Green Bay Packers. They kept the Cheeseheads in the race, and now Aaron Rodgers is back to make them pay for it. I hope the Packers win this game because I want to see what will happen when you put a pissed off Aaron Rodgers right into the playoffs. We know what the Bears are: a team with two great receivers but a porous defense that would get gashed on the ground against the 49ers in round one. The Packers, though? If Rodgers comes back full form, with the improvement of Eddy Lacy and the possibly concurrent return of Randall Cobb, why can’t this team make a playoff run to get at least a chance to play in Seattle? Rodgers throws 2 TD in this one, but Lacy will do the dirty work with 110 yards rushing, including about 30 to ice the game. Green Bay 34, Chicago 27

BUF (+8) vs NE - Just because I want to give myself a shimmer of hope that the Bills might take down the Patriots. It probably won’t happen, but Buffalo has come close to ousting the Patriots in recent years, and their defense is coming off their best game of the season. I really like the Bills heading into next season, when they will have an improved defense, a continued strong running game, and another year of learning for EJ Manuel and Doug Marrone. The Patriots are the Patriots. They will win this game, and have the two seed going into the playoffs. And I’m terrified of them. Buffalo 31, New England 35

TB vs NO (-12) - A win for the Saints gets them into the playoffs. After two straight crushing losses on the road, they will return home, where their offense is nearly unstoppable. Sean Payton lets Drew Brees throw it 50 times to score as many points as possible, and they will roll in this one. But they still will have to go on the road in the postseason, where they are not nearly the same team. Tampa Bay 13, New Orleans 34

DEN (-11) vs OAK - Congratulations to Peyton Manning for throwing his 51st TD pass of the season, an unbelievable feat. I’ll talk more about that when I review the season, but right now I’ll just say that since the Broncos still need to win this game to lock up the number one seed, Peyton will have a chance to extend his records and complete the greatest statistical year for a quarterback that we’ve ever seen. And since they are in a position where they have to win this game, you have to take the points. We’ll see if the loss of Von Miller looms large in January. Denver 41, Oakland 20

SF vs ARI (+1) - I wish this Cardinals team could get into the playoffs somehow; they absolutely deserve it and proved it by going INTO SEATTLE and beating the Seahawks, something no one has done since Russell Wilson has taken over at QB. They need to scratch and claw for this victory, while the Niners are already in the playoffs. Take the desperate team here, and hopefully the Cards can be rewarded with a playoff berth. Also, remember: the 49ers can still win the West! San Francisco 20, Arizona 23

KC (+9) vs SD - The line is what it is because the Chiefs already have their seed locked up for the playoffs, so they can afford to rest their starters. On the flip side, the Chargers need a win to have even a chance to keep playing in January. So why take the points? First of all, because the Chargers always fall asleep for one game in December without fail. Secondly, if Baltimore or Miami win during the 1:00 games, than the Chargers won’t have a chance of getting the six seed anymore, and this game wouldn’t mean anything for them either. Third, I think Knile Davis is really good backing up Jamaal Charles, and will have a chance to shine in this game. Nine points is just a lot to ask with so many variables. Ideally, stay away from this one. If the Baltimore Ravens don’t get that six seed from the early games, the Chargers would be my backup pick for that spot. I think they would win in Cincy, and then travel to Denver for round two, where they just won a couple of weeks ago. Kansas City 23, San Diego 27

STL vs SEA (-11.5) - The big dogs aren’t messing around this week. If the Seahawks win, they get the one seed. If they lose, they could fall all the way to five. So take the points. There will be blood. Time to unleash BEAST MODE. St. Louis 16, Seattle 31

PHI vs DAL (+7) - Kyle Orton will be starting for the Cowboys, and the line jumped all the way up to the Eagles being favored by a touchdown. No doubt this was aided by the fact that the Eagles’ offense has looked absolutely dominant recently, and much credit for that is due to Chip Kelly. I’ll tell you what, though: Kyle Orton is an experienced starter who knows how to win in the NFL. Right now, they are the ultimate Nobody Believes in Us team, and they also don’t have the Romo Week 17 stink on them. Call me crazy, but UPSET AL........no. Just kidding. Yes, I am taking the points, but you have to take the Eagles to win outright in this game. LeSean McCoy should run rings around the Cowboys’ defense, while the Philly receivers should be open all day. The only reason I’m taking the seven is because really nobody actually believes in Kyle Orton, and you know what that means...the Eagles may and should win this game, and it could even be a blowout, but if it is, it will NOT be because of Orton’s miscues. Dallas jumps out to an early lead an even is still ahead at halftime 17-13. I think Philly goes on a late game run and eventually takes the game. It’ll probably end in heartbreaking fashion, like with Dan Bailey missing a 53 yard field goal wide right, because Romo won’t be in there to throw the killer interception. What, too soon? Philadelphia 30, Dallas 27

Lock of the Week: PIT (-7)

Performance of the Week: D Williams, C Ivory, L McCoy, M Lynch

Surprise of the Week: Final playoff seedings as my surprise. In order.

AFC: DEN, NE, IND, CIN, KC, BAL

NFC: SEA, CAR, PHI, GB, SF, NO

2013 NFL Week 16 Preview

Week 16 Preview

There are two games left in the 2013 regular season and there are still only a few certainties regarding the postseason for either conference. Do you know that it is still possible for the Baltimore Ravens to get the 2 seed in the AFC? What about the fact that the NFC North, East, and South will come down to the final game? So much could happen in these last couple of weeks that it is impossible to predict what will happen down the stretch, but I’ll give it a shot. Week 15 gave us some exciting games, but none bigger than the Packers-Cowboys game that dominated the headlines on Monday. Dallas, on cue, choked up a 26-3 halftime lead to lose to Green Bay 37-36. They gave up five touchdowns on five second half possessions to Matt Flynn, and ran the ball a grand total of SEVEN times in the final two quarters, even though DeMarco Murray was gashing the defense. Tony Romo threw two interceptions right at the end of the game that are inexcusable; it’s amazing that no matter how good this guy can be, the dumb play will always be made. And yet, even after that catastrophe, the Cowboys still control their own destiny in the NFC East! What a crazy season. We finally don’t have a stupid Thursday game, which means that Sunday will be full of fantastic football. Let’s get into the do-or-die matchups for Week 16.

DAL (-3) vs WAS - I just recapped what happened with the Cowboys last week, so I won’t get into it again. But that result made it obvious what is going to happen this week: Big D is going to win a close game. While Tony Romo makes an extraordinary amount of dumb plays on a national stage, he usually follows it up with a clutch play to get everyone excited again, before the next inevitable screwup. If you think that the NFC isn’t going to come down to the final game of the season (DAL vs PHI) like it does every year, you’re wrong. The Cowboys will win a tight, wild game. Washington, meanwhile, is irrelevant. I hope the Rams enjoy their top two pick. Dallas 23, Washington 20

MIA vs BUF (+3) - I keep picking the Dolphins to lose a game because I don’t think they are real playoff contenders, but they keep proving me wrong. They are bound to slip up at some point, right? While the Bills have really struggled (I think they will be much better next year), they are solid at home, and I think they will bounce back. It’s a mini-upset here, as the Bills win straight up. Miami 16, Buffalo 27

MIN vs CIN (-7.5) - The Bengals showed their true colors last week by getting stomped on out of the gate by the Steelers. The Bengals are frauds, but there is still a chance that they could get the two seed! On the other hand, it’s still possible that they could fall to the Ravens in the North as well. But they are coming off a loss, and now playing at home against a crappy Vikings team. They have been blowing out these games all season long, and they will today to get everyone back on the bandwagon, but just wait: this team will fall early in the postseason. Minnesota 13, Cincinnati 31

TEN vs JAC (+4.5) - Again: the Jags have won four out of six, and beat the Titans when they played in Tennessee. What’s up with the line here? I’m just going to close my eyes and say either the Jags win, or the Titans take it by three. Tennessee 23, Jacksonville 20

IND vs KC (-6.5) - This seems like a classic trap game because the Colts have been less than impressive while the Chiefs have had an offensive explosion the last couple of weeks. With the Broncos’ loss to the Chargers and the fact that Indy has already clinched the division, I think KC comes out with more fire at home since they can still take the number one seed. While the Colts have been great against top teams, those wins have mostly come at home. Indianapolis 20, Kansas City 28

CLE vs NYJ (-2.5) - I hope that you have more options on your TV than just this game. Cleveland 13, New York 16

DEN (-11.5) vs HOU - Duh. Make it 13 straight losses for the sorry Texans, and there’s a chance we could see some history from number 18 in this one. Denver 38, Houston 14

TB (+5.5) vs STL - I don’t know if I’ve gotten a single Rams game correct the entire season. I’m probably going to be wrong about this one too. They have been on a roll recently and absolutely dismantled the Saints last week, but I can’t take them here because they could still come back and lose by 20 this week. As for the Bucs, with the recent spurt of wins they’ve had with Mike Glennon and Bobby Rainey at RB, it might be possible for Greg Schiano to keep his job after the season. Tampa Bay 20, St. Louis 24

NO vs CAR (-3.5) - OK, Carolina, this is it. I was wrong a couple of weeks ago when I took the Panthers to win in the Superdome, but I did say that they would split the two games, which means that they will win this one. With the Saints laying an egg last week, these two teams are tied once again, which means that if the Panthers can pull this one out, they only need a win against the Falcons next week to get the two seed in the NFC! Carolina has come so far since the start of the season, and it would be great if Cam Newton and Ron Rivera can overcome their final obstacle: taking the division title away from Drew Brees and Sean Payton. New Orleans 24, Carolina 28

NYG (+9.5) vs DET - The Lions are absolutely pathetic. A few weeks ago, after beating the Chicago Bears for the second time to get to 6-3, and with Aaron Rodgers still out for the Packers, Detroit was in a huge driver’s seat in the NFC North. Since then, they have dropped four out of five, including home losses to Tampa Bay and Baltimore, consistently blowing halftime leads. They had a golden opportunity to establish themselves as a force in the NFC and have just completely collapsed. It is impossible to trust them, and so while they should be able to beat the lowly Giants, if you want to bet on this game it’s hard to justify laying almost ten points. New York 17, Detroit 24

ARI (+10.5) vs SEA - Total pride game for the Cardinals. If they lose this one, they will be out of the playoffs, and while I do think they come up short, they have enough fight to stay within ten of Seattle. Russell Wilson has yet to lose a home game in his career, and that streak continues in this one. The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will go through Seattle. Arizona 17, Seattle 23

PIT (+2.5) vs GB - Matt Flynn had an incredible second half against the atrocious Cowboys defense, and that definitely impacted the line a lot for this game. It is a whole different ballgame to repeat that feat against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember: the Pack were down 26-3 at halftime; there’s a reason for that. Give me the Steel City straight up in this one, pulling one out on the road. Pittsburgh 27, Green Bay 24

OAK (+10.5) vs SD - I know I picked the Raiders to beat the Chiefs last week, and while that was a terrible pick, I was right about a major upset happening--it was the Vikings over the Eagles. I have another opportunity to take them in an upset here, but I don’t think I can do it. Either way, this is basically the exact game that the Chargers lose every single year; not specifically to the Raiders, but a game in late December with San Diego coming off a huge win and losing to an inferior opponent to knock themselves out of the playoff race. Watch out for this one. Oakland 26, San Diego 27

NE vs BAL (-2.5) - Did you really expect anything else? Give me the Ravens all the way. The Pats are without Gronk, and the Ravens know how to play physically against this team. I have basically almost predicted this entire season for Baltimore, with the slow start followed by a late season burst. They are peaking at the right time, and I think their pride gets them a win over their playoff rivals. New England 20, Baltimore 23

CHI (+2.5) vs PHI - A major Sunday Night game for both teams in the playoff hunt. I think this is a sneaky good Bears team, at least if they could produce any kind of rush defense whatsoever. The NFC North is the Bears’ division to lose, and I think that they get one step closer to the three seed. One of the Chicago receivers is going to have 150 yards and two touchdowns. My money is on Jeffrey. Chicago 31, Philadelphia 27

ATL (+11.5) vs SF - It’s just a lot of points to lay in a game that I think the Niners are going to win comfortably. There’s a lot of room for a backdoor cover, or San Fran taking their foot off the gas pedal. The line is 11.5, so I’ll take the 49ers by exactly 11. Atlanta 16, San Francisco 27

Lock of the Week: OAK (+10.5), DEN (-11.5)

Performance of the Week: Alshon Jeffrey, Antonio Brown, DeMarco Murray

Surprise of the Week: CIN and CAR will be the 2 seeds after this week