2013 NFL Week 17 Preview

Week 17 Preview

We’ve finally made it to the final week of the 2013 NFL regular season, and what a wild ride we’ve been on. I’d like to first congratulate all those out there who, unlike me, were able to win their fantasy football leagues this year; additionally, I hope everyone who celebrated it had a great Christmas, and that all of you readers have a Happy New Year as well. But now, to football. We are not much closer to understanding these teams than we were four months ago--after 16 games, only the Kansas City Chiefs are locked into a playoff spot, which is the 5th seed in the AFC. However, when the clock ticks to zero in Dallas on Sunday Night, we will know exactly who has made the playoffs, and which positions the teams shall be in. There has been two instances of major quarterback news to arrive over the last couple of days. The Green Bay Packers announced that Aaron Rodgers will return to the starting lineup on Sunday to take on the Bears. If the former MVP can put together a winning effort in his return, than miraculously, the Pack will make the playoffs despite Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn under center for half the season. Conversely, there was sadder news to come out of Dallas, as we learned that Tony Romo, following a fantastic comeback win against Washington, will miss the rest of the season with a herniated disk in his back. Although I actively root against the Cowboys, I do feel bad for Tony Romo; his career has been a tragedy since the bobbled snap in Seattle, and whether he won or lost on Sunday night, I still would have liked to see him out there with a chance to maybe have things go right for him. As for the rest of the games, they will be discussed in a manner of moments, and some of my predictions will be based on who I want to see in the playoffs, but I will make those feelings clear so that you know to take my pick with a grain of salt. I’ll try to sprinkle in some extra, more specific predictions throughout the piece if I can, but I will save the major stuff for the playoff games. For now, let’s just sit back and enjoy a Sunday full of all 16 games, with the playoffs just 60 minutes away for many teams.

CAR vs ATL (+6.5) - The Falcons deserved to lose on Monday Night to the 49ers, but had a chance at the end of the game to shock the world and throw the NFC playoff picture into a frenzy. Had Atlanta punched the ball in from ten yards out in the final minute, Seattle would have already clinched the NFC West and the top seed, while San Francisco would be in a dogfight with the Cardinals in Arizona this weekend for the final wild card spot, in danger of missing the postseason completely. This was not the case, but the Panthers were the team that was able to pull out a last second win and defeat the Saints for their biggest win of the season. Carolina is now firmly in position, with a win here, to go into January as NFC South Champions, and the two seed with a first round bye. Cam Newton has answered every challenge thrown his way this season, and should be very much in the running for second place in the MVP race (because let’s be honest, Peyton has locked up first). The only question left is if this team can seal the deal and win a division road game. So why take the points with Atlanta? Because this is always a close game, no matter what the records say. The Falcons will play with pride, and won’t roll over for anybody; Steve Smith is out for the Panthers, who don’t blow people out anyway; it is (allegedly) Tony Gonzalez’s last game as a pro, so there will be a lot of emotion; the Panthers might experience an emotional letdown after their huge win, while the Falcons have nothing to lose. However, DeAngelo Williams runs for 125 yards and a touchdown, and the Panthers will take the two seed. I picked them to make the playoffs before the season, but I had no idea they would be THIS good. Carolina 27, Atlanta 24

HOU (+7) vs TEN - This one will be much shorter. It is hard to comprehend the Houston Texans losing 14 games in a row, but that’s what we’re looking at. It’s also hard to imagine the Titans beating anybody by more than a touchdown. Houston 20, Tennessee 21

CLE vs PIT (-7) - The Browns showed promise early on in the season. I was obviously wrong about them making the playoffs. But they had halftime leads in each of their first six games; their quarterbacks were Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer, and Jason Campbell; Josh Gordon has blossomed into an unstoppable force; and they got a first round pick from the Trent Richardson trade that now looks like a masterpiece. Their putrid record does not indicate the performance of this team in 2013. They will be back, sooner rather than later. As for the Steelers, they are somehow still in the playoff hunt after starting out 0-4. They need to win this game and have losses from the Ravens, Dolphins, AND Chargers. This will most likely not happen, but that doesn’t mean they won’t take care of their part. Cleveland 17, Pittsburgh 34

WAS vs NYG (-3.5) - I know I’m going to be absolutely wrong about this, I have a horrible feeling about it. But the funniest part of this season still is, that even after this atrocity of a season for Washington, their top two pick goes to the St. Louis Rams. Farewell Mike Shanahan, and hopefully no farewell for Tom Coughlin--I still think he has the ability to rally the troops for a couple of more seasons to come. Also: beware of Kirk Cousins becoming the next Matt Flynn. Washington 20, New York 24

BAL (+6.5) vs CIN - This is blind faith. The Ravens really laid a goose egg against the Patriots last week, which was a huge letdown, and even in their previous win in Detroit they didn’t score a single touchdown. I still thought they had a chance to make a December run into the playoffs, but now this pick has become all heart and no head. If the Ravens win this game (and get the necessary help), than they will make the playoffs, with the Bengals falling to the 4th seed, where they will have to play Kansas City. This would be my dream scenario, so I’m making this an UPSET ALERT! Flacco needs to have a huge game, and the Ravens defense needs to do something that has been surprisingly hard to accomplish this season: stop Andy Dalton in Cincy. Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 17

JAC (+10.5) vs IND - Because the Colts never make anything look easy, except for beating really good teams, like they did last week by dismantling Kansas City. For all the inconsistency that Indy has shown this season, they really show up against top competition, as proved by their wins this year over KC, Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle. They are a team that could get bumped in the first round, or make it to the AFC Championship Game, and neither result would be particularly shocking. They established a nice gameplan for how to handle the Chiefs, and if they do indeed meet KC in the playoffs at home this time, they should have a considerable advantage. Even though he plays in a conference where Peyton Manning and Tom Brady still reign supreme, my original prediction for him coming out of college remains true: Andrew Luck will play in the Super Bowl sometime in his first five years as a pro. Jacksonville 17, Indianapolis 24

NYJ (+5.5) vs MIA - The Jets cannot make the playoffs, but they do still have a possibility of finishing 8-8, which is pretty incredible considering that they are starting an overwhelmed (for long stretches at a time) rookie at QB, lost Darrelle Revis on defense, and their second best receiver is Jeremy Kerley. Rex Ryan deserves to be back next year. As for the Dolphins, they had a chance to put themselves in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot last week in Buffalo and scored a whopping grand total of zero points. This team has talent but is not a contender, and a first round battle between Miami and Cincinnati would be unwatchable. They are not ready for the postseason yet, and the Jets are playing for potentially the head coach’s job. They will overpower the pathetic Dolphins’ offensive line, and be able to run the ball to eat up clock. Chris Ivory puts up DeAngelo Williams-like numbers this week to get our second UPSET ALERT. See you next year, Miami. By the way: this one goes to OT. New York 24, Miami 21

DET vs MIN (-2.5) - No Adrian Peterson? No problem. Stupid things happen in Week 17, and one of the things you should never do is pick the team who has quit on their coach. The Jim Schwartz era in Detroit is a lost cause, which is a shame because the Lions should have walked into the playoffs this year. They will play frustrated and make their usual boneheaded mistakes, and finish a disappointing year with a disappointing loss to the Vikings. Patterson and Jennings both break 100 yards. Detroit 27, Minnesota 31

GB (-3) vs CHI - The country will be watching the return of Aaron Rodgers. I have a sneaking suspicion that this will be an incredible sucker bet, but if it is, I’m going to fall in the trap as well. The Bears have been decent (besides the thrashing they took from the Eagles last week), but still not good enough to pull away from the hopeless Green Bay Packers. They kept the Cheeseheads in the race, and now Aaron Rodgers is back to make them pay for it. I hope the Packers win this game because I want to see what will happen when you put a pissed off Aaron Rodgers right into the playoffs. We know what the Bears are: a team with two great receivers but a porous defense that would get gashed on the ground against the 49ers in round one. The Packers, though? If Rodgers comes back full form, with the improvement of Eddy Lacy and the possibly concurrent return of Randall Cobb, why can’t this team make a playoff run to get at least a chance to play in Seattle? Rodgers throws 2 TD in this one, but Lacy will do the dirty work with 110 yards rushing, including about 30 to ice the game. Green Bay 34, Chicago 27

BUF (+8) vs NE - Just because I want to give myself a shimmer of hope that the Bills might take down the Patriots. It probably won’t happen, but Buffalo has come close to ousting the Patriots in recent years, and their defense is coming off their best game of the season. I really like the Bills heading into next season, when they will have an improved defense, a continued strong running game, and another year of learning for EJ Manuel and Doug Marrone. The Patriots are the Patriots. They will win this game, and have the two seed going into the playoffs. And I’m terrified of them. Buffalo 31, New England 35

TB vs NO (-12) - A win for the Saints gets them into the playoffs. After two straight crushing losses on the road, they will return home, where their offense is nearly unstoppable. Sean Payton lets Drew Brees throw it 50 times to score as many points as possible, and they will roll in this one. But they still will have to go on the road in the postseason, where they are not nearly the same team. Tampa Bay 13, New Orleans 34

DEN (-11) vs OAK - Congratulations to Peyton Manning for throwing his 51st TD pass of the season, an unbelievable feat. I’ll talk more about that when I review the season, but right now I’ll just say that since the Broncos still need to win this game to lock up the number one seed, Peyton will have a chance to extend his records and complete the greatest statistical year for a quarterback that we’ve ever seen. And since they are in a position where they have to win this game, you have to take the points. We’ll see if the loss of Von Miller looms large in January. Denver 41, Oakland 20

SF vs ARI (+1) - I wish this Cardinals team could get into the playoffs somehow; they absolutely deserve it and proved it by going INTO SEATTLE and beating the Seahawks, something no one has done since Russell Wilson has taken over at QB. They need to scratch and claw for this victory, while the Niners are already in the playoffs. Take the desperate team here, and hopefully the Cards can be rewarded with a playoff berth. Also, remember: the 49ers can still win the West! San Francisco 20, Arizona 23

KC (+9) vs SD - The line is what it is because the Chiefs already have their seed locked up for the playoffs, so they can afford to rest their starters. On the flip side, the Chargers need a win to have even a chance to keep playing in January. So why take the points? First of all, because the Chargers always fall asleep for one game in December without fail. Secondly, if Baltimore or Miami win during the 1:00 games, than the Chargers won’t have a chance of getting the six seed anymore, and this game wouldn’t mean anything for them either. Third, I think Knile Davis is really good backing up Jamaal Charles, and will have a chance to shine in this game. Nine points is just a lot to ask with so many variables. Ideally, stay away from this one. If the Baltimore Ravens don’t get that six seed from the early games, the Chargers would be my backup pick for that spot. I think they would win in Cincy, and then travel to Denver for round two, where they just won a couple of weeks ago. Kansas City 23, San Diego 27

STL vs SEA (-11.5) - The big dogs aren’t messing around this week. If the Seahawks win, they get the one seed. If they lose, they could fall all the way to five. So take the points. There will be blood. Time to unleash BEAST MODE. St. Louis 16, Seattle 31

PHI vs DAL (+7) - Kyle Orton will be starting for the Cowboys, and the line jumped all the way up to the Eagles being favored by a touchdown. No doubt this was aided by the fact that the Eagles’ offense has looked absolutely dominant recently, and much credit for that is due to Chip Kelly. I’ll tell you what, though: Kyle Orton is an experienced starter who knows how to win in the NFL. Right now, they are the ultimate Nobody Believes in Us team, and they also don’t have the Romo Week 17 stink on them. Call me crazy, but UPSET AL........no. Just kidding. Yes, I am taking the points, but you have to take the Eagles to win outright in this game. LeSean McCoy should run rings around the Cowboys’ defense, while the Philly receivers should be open all day. The only reason I’m taking the seven is because really nobody actually believes in Kyle Orton, and you know what that means...the Eagles may and should win this game, and it could even be a blowout, but if it is, it will NOT be because of Orton’s miscues. Dallas jumps out to an early lead an even is still ahead at halftime 17-13. I think Philly goes on a late game run and eventually takes the game. It’ll probably end in heartbreaking fashion, like with Dan Bailey missing a 53 yard field goal wide right, because Romo won’t be in there to throw the killer interception. What, too soon? Philadelphia 30, Dallas 27

Lock of the Week: PIT (-7)

Performance of the Week: D Williams, C Ivory, L McCoy, M Lynch

Surprise of the Week: Final playoff seedings as my surprise. In order.

AFC: DEN, NE, IND, CIN, KC, BAL

NFC: SEA, CAR, PHI, GB, SF, NO