2013 NFL Conference Championship Preview

Conference Championship Preview

HERE WE GO. The matchups that we all wanted. After a surprisingly pedestrian second round, I feel that we are left with the four best teams in the league. Sunday will be a historic day of games, with the two best contests that we could ever ask for. The first game is between the Patriots and Broncos for the AFC Championship, which means one thing: Brady vs Manning. Every time these two quarterbacks take the field, something special happens, and now we have a battle for a Super Bowl berth. Afterward, on the other side, we have the NFC will-be war between the 49ers and the Seahawks up in Seattle. To say that there will be blood is an understatement; I’m expecting at least two major injuries, including at least one concussion. These are the two most physical teams in the league, playing for the third time this season, and they absolutely hate each other. This year, the crowd in Seattle has set a world record for noise, and reportedly last week caused an EARTHQUAKE on Marshawn Lynch’s final touchdown run. The Niners have been blown out the last two times they went up to the Pacific Northwest, and Kaepernick, as good as he has looked in two playoff games, was utterly overmatched against the Legion of Boom secondary. There’s nothing left to say; each of these teams are so even with their opponents, that literally anything could happen. So instead of making long drawn-out paragraphs about each game, I’m just going to give my picks with my statistical predictions. I’m ready for two absolutely epic games.

NE (+5.5) vs DEN - Before you freak out and think I’m a traitor, I’m not picking the Patriots to win. I would never do that. But even I am not so blind to disrespect Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to think that they won’t stay within five points of Denver. The Pats are playing incredible football right now with the run and pass and I’m terrified that they are going to win this game outright. But I’m not going against my boy Peyton against the team I hate. Here are my stat predictions:

Brady: 21-33, 289 yds, 2 TD, INT

Manning: 24-37, 332 yds, 3 TD, INT

Blount: 13 rush, 41 yds

Ridley: 5 rush, 24 yds, TD, fumble

Vareen: 3 rush, 13 yds, 5 rec, 37 yds, TD

Moreno: 16 rush, 74 yds, TD

Edelman: 8 rec, 84 yds, TD

D Thomas: 5 rec, 72 yds

Decker: 4 rec, 81 yds, TD

Welker: 6 rec, 53 yds, TD

J Thomas: 4 rec, 62 yds, TD

Final Score: New England 27, Denver 31

SF vs SEA (-3.5) - While I don’t think that this game will be a blowout, I think the Seahawks continue their trend of kicking the 49ers’ asses physically at home and punching them in the mouth. The fans will cause another earthquake and break their own noise world record with the Super Bowl on the line. Kaepernick and the Niners will be forced to keeping burning useless timeouts from not being able to hear anything. The matchup to watch are the receivers for San Fran against the secondary of Seattle, and if thought the jawing between the 49ers and Carolina was bad last week, you ain’t seen nothing yet! This game will be electric all the way around, but when it comes down to it, I think that Russell Wilson will play his best game in two months, and make the big plays by moving around with his legs when it matters most.

Kaepernick: 14-26, 176 yds, TD, 2 INT, 34 rush yds

Wilson: 16-24, 202 yds, TD, fumble, 41 rush yds

Gore: 19 rush, 76 yds, TD

Lynch: 23 rush, 121 yds, 2 TD

Crabtree: 5 rec, 51 yds

Davis: 3 rec, 40 yds, TD

Tate: 7 rec, 90 yds, TD

Final Score: San Francisco 17, Seattle 24

Lock of the Week: NE (+5.5)

Performance of the Week: Marshawn Lynch, SEA

Surprise of the Week: Super Bowl will be Denver vs Seattle. Let’s go.

2013 NFL Divisional Round Preview

Divisional Round Preview

What a wild (card) weekend! Three of the four games were fabulous and exciting, and the outcomes were just as thrilling as three underdogs (if you include the Colts, who  were bet down to +2.5 by the time Saturday rolled around) were victorious. I was 2-0 in my AFC picks (Colts and Chargers), but 0-2 predicting the NFC (Eagles and Packers). The latter two teams were my eventual NFC Championship Game matchup, so I’m automatically 0-2 in advance for this weekend already, but maybe I’ll get the weekly picks correct. So here are some quick thoughts about the opening round before I preview our upcoming games.

First, what a comeback by the Indianapolis Colts! Andrew Luck, after starting out miserably, led a phenomenal comeback from 28 points down to eventually win a surprising shootout, 45-44. In that final quarter and a half, we all witnessed the potential greatness that has yet to come from Luck, who is said to be the best quarterback prospect since Manning and Elway. He obviously still has a lot of growth and learning to do, but the display of heart, determination, and poise he showed as a second-year QB was awe-inspiring. He has all the skill and intangibles to become one of the greatest ever, and while he is nowhere near that point yet, that upside is real. The two plays from Saturday’s game to prove that were his fumble recovery into a touchdown that displayed his presence of mind, and his final touchdown pass to T.Y. Hilton which was an absolute laser beam off his arm. I’ve been raving for a year and a half about how it was the right choice to take him over RGIII, and with that performance last Saturday, I believe that argument has been officially put to rest. Congratulations to Andrew Luck on his first playoff win, and there will be many more to come. As for the Chiefs, that loss is inexcusable. An offense that was underwhelming all year had put up 38 points early in the third quarter without Jamaal Charles! Yes, they got bad luck from injuries, but for Alex Smith to be absolutely brilliant (which should not be forgotten) for a half and then not be able to get enough first downs just to keep the clock rolling late? I mean, they were up four touchdowns and then then couldn’t even move the ball! As dominating as their defense was during the season, they really blew it in this one. If the offense isn’t moving the ball and chewing clock, it’s up to the defense to create one final turnover (or at least enough stops) to put the nail in the coffin and stay alive in the playoffs. How did they disappear? Much blame has to be given to the play calling and clock management of Andy Reid (how many times have we said that before?), which ruined an awesome first half. In the end, the Colts made more plays at the end of the game, and they deserved to win. We saw their ceiling to close that game, and it is out of reach from anything Kansas City could do moving forward.

I’ll be able to sum up the other three games much more quickly. On Saturday night, New Orleans proved that they could win a road playoff game in a highly contested matchup with Philadelphia. The Eagles didn’t play up to their normal level from the past couple of months, but in the first playoffs for Nick Foles and Chip Kelly, they performed as well as can be expected. This year put Philly on the map, and they will have to be considered the NFC East favorites heading into next season. This game was more about the Saints, and Drew Brees overcoming a subpar game to still lead the team to victory at the end. Brees and Payton were better than Foles and Kelly, and also deserve to be playing this coming weekend. Unfortunately for them, they have to go back up to Seattle, where they really got their asses handed to them on a rowdy Monday Night. More on that game later on.

The Chargers played a very impressive game on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati by taking down the Bengals 27-10. This was surprising to a lot of people, but not to me if you’ve read anything I’ve ever written. I picked them to win outright, and it was really quite obvious. San Diego was the “team of destiny” heading into the postseason, as the team that was insanely lucky just to be there, and those teams ALWAYS win in the first round. This is very similar to the NCAA tournament where one of the winners of the stupid play-in games continues their momentum into the main bracket. Additionally, the Bengals may win games in the regular season (many by beating inferior teams at home), but they had proven nothing in the playoffs, and have a knack of disappointing you when you actually think they might be good. I said this in the Week 16 game leading up to their loss to Pittsburgh on a nationally televised game. The combo of Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis cannot win a big game, and this was proven once again, even in a home game against an inferior opponent. I was actually more confident in Andrew Luck to win his playoff game when they were down 28 points than I was in Andy Dalton even when they were up 10-7 at the half. The Chargers are legitimately scary, and there’s a real chance they can take down Denver.

Finally, the 49ers and Packers ended the weekend with another nail-biter that ended the same way as their previous matchups: Colin Kaepernick (sleeveless!!!) taking control and winning the game. In incredibly frigid conditions, the Niners were tough enough to hang around and although Kaep did not have a great passing day, he was a menace on the ground, including the final third down run to get his team into field goal range. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were stifled in the first half, and although they performed much better later on, they couldn’t quite finish it off. But don’t worry, Green Bay---your team is going to be in at least the NFC Championship Game next year, you can mark that down. One final note to all the debbie downers out there on television: Yes, of course the Packers held on that crazy escape play by Aaron Rodgers, but who cares? It doesn’t take away from the athleticism of Rodgers, and it didn’t cost the 49ers the game, so stop harping on it. And now, finally, to this week’s action.

NO vs SEA (-7.5) - Yeah, the win for the Saints was great. Whatever. This line was actually bet down to seven and a half because so many people are riding the Saints. These people will lose money. Have people forgotten the 34-7 beatdown that the Seahawks put on the Saints just a few weeks ago? The crowd in Seattle is probably going to set ANOTHER noise record now that it is the playoffs, and while a win in Philly is nice, traveling up to the Pacific Northwest is a whole different deal. The Seahawks feast on people there, and with everyone praising the Saints and especially the Niners, the dominance of the Hawks has actually gone under the radar. This will change immediately. I know I had the Seahawks losing to the Packers in my future playoff predictions last week, but that was exclusively because I think the Packers are terrifying, and they will be next year. I am not, however, afraid of the Saints. There are three lines this week of at least a touchdown, and this is the one I would feel most confident betting the favorite. It might not be another 27-point smackdown, but the Seahawks will be on point and take control early and often. Three turnovers for Brees, and only one for Russell Wilson, with three total touchdowns for the latter. New Orleans 17, Seattle 31

IND (+7) vs NE - I already gave all my praise to Andrew Luck and the Colts in the opening paragraphs, so I won’t continue that here. I really have no idea how this one is going to play out, but there is only one scenario I’m very confident about not happening: a Colts blowout win. The Patriots suffered ANOTHER major injury this week in losing Brandon Spikes, which is crushing to their front lines. I don’t know how they keep continuing to win time after time, but even I will say that the performances by Brady and Belichick this season have been masterful. The Pats have only lost in this round once with Brady (2010 to the J-E-T-S!), but I say that the Colts put up a fight, even if I think that they will ultimately fall short of taking down New England. But I’ll ask you this: after watching the Colts come back from down 28 to win a game outright, how big of a lead are you comfortable with the Patriots having without fearing that Andrew Luck can get back to within seven? I don’t know if there is one. And since that’s the case, I’m taking the Colts and the seven points. However, while Andrew Luck is and will be great, they won’t have enough firepower to keep pace. Brady will be surgical, and complete 70% of his passes with one of those quick QB sneaks for a touchdown. I’m predicting another big game (I was right about him in Week 17!) for Julian Edelman. Belichick will set his gameplan around stopping Hilton, so for the Colts, the guy who needs to step up for them to get a victory, besides Donald Brown, is Coby Fleener controlling the middle of the field. Indianapolis 27, New England 30

SF (-1.5) vs CAR - This is a pick completely with my head and not with my heart, because I want with all my heart for the Carolina Panthers to come out of the NFC. However, there is no way that we are going to have both one and two seeds in the conference championship games, and the 49ers have proven that they can win playoff games on the road. I’m confident in the Panthers because they already beat the Niners this year in San Fran, but they will be playing a much hotter team this time around and be with only a limited Steve Smith. Furthermore, I feel like we are destined to have a San Francisco vs Seattle NFC Championship. It’s going to happen, and I’m telling you to quite literally bet on it right now. The Carolina Panthers have had a miraculous transformation with the maturation of Cam Newton, the growth of balls by Ron Rivera, and the sudden scariness of their defense as a unit. As of right now they are my pick to face and lose to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game next year. But they aren’t build to win it all just yet. They are missing a couple of key pieces, namely a young stud receiver (sorry Brandon LaFell, you’re not that guy), and depth in the secondary. They will be back next year I have no doubt, but the 49ers are better than them right now, especially with Michael Crabtree back (early prediction: top 10 fantasy receiver next year). We are going to get a San Francisco vs Seattle round three, which will surely be just as thrilling as the first two. I’m picking the Niners, but will be rooting for the Panthers. I’ll take Cam with more rushing yards than Kaepernick, but Kaep with more total touchdowns. San Francisco 23, Carolina 17

SD (+9.5) vs DEN - It’s probably stupid that I’m betting against (at least, with the points) Brady and Manning at home in the playoffs. But odds are, one of these favorites is going to lose, and this is a big line. The Chargers are on a roll, and they just beat the Broncos in Denver a month ago. Sure, the circumstances have changed, but the point is that the line for that previous matchup was 9 points and San Diego won outright. Now you have the Bolts streaking, a recent road win in their matchup, the Peyton Manning playing outdoors factor, and the line is half a point higher? There is always a round two upset, and honestly, this game probably has the best potential to be it, for all the reasons listed above. I’m terrified that the Broncos might lose this game, but I don’t want to think that way because of how badly I want Peyton to win a second ring. Even if he does fall short of that goal, it can NOT be in his first game, at home against the once 5-7 Chargers. Their defense is soft without Von Miller in there, and we’re talking about a unit that couldn’t stop San Diego even when he was playing. The one scary aspect of this pick is going against the 600-point scoring Broncos, in the chill of the playoffs I don’t think Peyton has what it takes to simply run away from a team. The Chargers are going to hang around by controlling the clock and Philip Rivers being efficient, and I think they keep it close enough. In the end, I can’t call the upset because I’ll be rooting for Denver, but just know that I’ll be freaking out over this one until the game is over. There are always upsets this weekend and I ended up not picking any, but if there is one I think it will be one the AFC side. But hopefully not in this one. Rivers throws for 262 yards and 3 TDs, and Peyton will have 338 yards and 3 scores, two to Eric Decker. San Diego 24, Denver 31

Lock of the Week: SEA (-7)

Performance of the Week: Russell Wilson, Coby Fleener, Michael Crabtree, NaVorro Bowman, Eric Decker, Eric 

Weddle

Surprise of the Week: Golden Globe predictions! 12 Years a Slave wins for Best Drama and Best Actor, Wolf of Wall Street wins for Best Comedy and Best Actor. Go Leo!

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions + Wild Card Weekend

Wild Card Weekend + Playoff Predictions

Happy New Year, and Happy Playoffs, football fans! After four months of waiting, we have finally reached 2014 and the first round of the NFL postseason. We were witnesses to history in Denver (Manning), scandal in New England (Hernandez), and many significant injuries along the way (Rodgers, Wayne, Gronkowski, etc). We saw the breakouts of Nick Foles (and Chip Kelly), the Carolina Panthers, Josh Gordon, Jamaal Charles, Alshon Jeffrey, and Zac Stacy; the resurgence of Philip Rivers, the New Orleans Saints, and almost Carson Palmer; and the demise of the Washington Redskins, Josh Freeman, and the Detroit Lions. Week 17 itself was pretty wild as expected, with dramatic wins and playoff berths for the Packers, Chargers, and Eagles. I will delve into the events of the regular season at a later time, but this piece is all about looking into the future. The playoffs start today with two great matchups: Chiefs vs Colts, and Saints vs Eagles. In this post, I’ll provide picks for all four of these weekend’s games (and go round by round each week) with some specific player predictions as well as a shot at the entire playoff picture right now to see how accurately I can bet on the next month of action. In my Official 2013 NFL Predictions from before the season, I correctly selected 7 out of the 12 playoff teams to make the postseason; I picked Denver and Seattle to be the number one seeds in their respective conferences which came true, and my best team pick was to take the Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs. Of course, I had plenty of bad picks too, but we’re not going to talk about that right now. Let’s get right into the week’s picks, and I’ll finish up with my predictions for the entire playoffs.

KC vs IND (+1.5) - When I looked at the line yesterday, the Colts were still favored by a point, but the line swung really dramatically right before the game. Either way, I’m taking the Colts, and not just because they convincingly won in KC a couple of weeks ago either. The Chiefs have been fairly predictable all year; they beat up on bad teams early on in the season, but really struggled down the stretch against playoff talent. The Colts have been exactly the opposite, getting blown out by the Rams, Bengals, and Cardinals, but also incredibly defeating the 49ers, Broncos, and Seahawks. The Colts step up against top teams, while the Chiefs falter. The key to beating Kansas City is to contain Jamaal Charles, and Indy has the manpower and the home crowd behind them. Andrew Luck has been unbelievable thus far in his career, and will continue to progress along his path to superstardom. Last year, he led the Colts to a Wild Card berth but lost his first playoff game against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens. This year, he won the division, and will win his first playoff game. Indy gets ahead early on a defensive touchdown and never looks back, forcing Alex Smith to try to beat them. Smith will throw two touchdowns, but Andrew Luck will throw for 275 and have two touchdowns of his own. Donald Brown will also get into the end zone by reception, and Robert Mathis will have 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble. The Colts will move on to either Denver or New England. Kansas City 17, Indianapolis 24

NO vs PHI (-3) - This has less to do with Philly as it does with New Orleans’ immense struggles in the outdoors. The Saints are dominant at home, where they were 8-0 and were basically a lock for 30 points a game, but that won’t do much good as the six seed. They are a completely different team on the road, where they finished 3-5. Does a truly great team have a losing record on the road? I say no. Their three road wins? Tampa by two, before they were not atrocious; Chicago by eight, and Atlanta by four after they were atrocious. For some reason, they can’t perform nearly as well away from the Superdome, and don’t have Pierre Thomas for this game either. This is a bigger deal than you think, because Drew Brees has spent an extraordinary amount of time passing to his running backs Thomas and Sproles this season rather than his wide outs. The Eagles are red hot, and are riding Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy for all they are worth. Usually Drew Brees and Sean Payton are the QB-coach duo you think of when picturing a dynamic duo, but Foles and Kelly are quickly taking that title from them, especially outdoors. Big advantage for the Eagles with snow on the ground, and they will bring their blistering pace into Carolina next week. Brees has 350 yards and two touchdowns, but will have to throw it 53 times with two turnovers as well, including the dagger in the fourth quarter. Foles will have a more modest 284 yards and a TD or two, but the superstar day will be had by Shady. New Orleans 20, Philadelphia 31

SD (+7) vs CIN - How the hell did the Chargers even get in the playoffs? It took an incredible missed field goal, a ludicrous no-call, and major luck in overtime to barely get past the Kansas City second stringers. Then they received the necessary help with Baltimore and Miami each losing (Side note: what are you doing, Miami? They got shut out by the Bills and lost at home to Geno Smith to end the season, when one win would have got them in the playoffs). Pittsburgh should feel very slighted about missing out on the postseason, but in fairness, they were only 8-8, so they don’t have much beef. Anyway, the Chargers may be lucky to have gotten the six seed in the AFC, but they are a very dangerous squad. They have a tremendous advantage at the quarterback position which is a huge bonus in a road playoff game. They just beat the Broncos in Denver, so going into Cincinnati will not scare the Chargers one bit. The Bengals might have gone 8-0 at home, but if you’ve read my picks all season, you know that I am not sold on them. Even if they win a playoff game, which is something that Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis have never done, they are going to get throttled by New England next week, so what’s the fun in picking them. The Chargers are led by a playoff veteran and have already proved that they could go into Mile High and beat Peyton Manning, which is what they would have to do in the second round. I think Philip Rivers continues his bounce-back season and picks apart Cincy for 300 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, and Ryan Matthews. Ryan Matthews (if healthy) and Danny Woodhead will combine for 7 catches and 150 rushing yards. On the other side, Andy Dalton will throw three interceptions, and if the Chargers are smart they will double team AJ Green all day. A possible x-factor for the Bengals: Giovani Bernard. Ladies and gentlemen, we have our first playoff UPSET ALERT! San Diego 27, Cincinnati 14

SF vs GB (+3) - This is a tremendous matchup, especially now that Aaron Rodgers is back. I still have no idea how Green Bay got into the postseason; Aaron Rodgers missed almost half the season, as did Randall Cobb, while Clay Matthews has been out for an extended period of time as well. Yet they hung around in the suddenly awful NFC North and won miraculously in Chicago to end the season. Those three converted fourth downs were magnificent, especially the game-winning play from Rodgers to Cobb with under a minute to play. The Pack are going to go on in F-U mode at some point soon now that their QB is back; it will either be in these playoffs, or a run into late January next year. At full strength, their offense is terrifying with Rodgers, Lacy, Nelson, Jones, and Cobb. The tough part about this pick is that Colin Kaepernick has torched the Packers twice in a row now with his arms and legs, and the Niners are on a strong winning streak. After looking vulnerable early in the season, San Francisco has looked dominant the last few weeks, and almost stole the NFC West from the Seahawks. Michael Crabtree, while not lighting up the stat sheet, has provided depth for the passing attack that thus far was centralized around Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. The 49ers will be ready for a battle with the aforementioned studs and Frank Gore still pumping out first downs on the ground. There are two factors that swayed my decision to take the Cheeseheads, not including the fact that I hate the Niners and like the Packers: first, that it’s Aaron Rodgers playing at home; second, that it is going to be negative degrees in Lambeau Field on Sunday. People who say weather doesn’t make a difference in sports is kidding themselves; going from warm weather to negative temperature is a significant change. Give me the Packers to finally take down the 49ers in a clash worthy of being the NFC Championship Game. Kaepernick will have 324 total yards and a touchdown and turnover each. Frank Gore will have a throwback performance of 100 yards and a TD, but the defense will struggle if Rodgers can successfully spread them out wide. Aaron Rodgers will throw for 300 yards with two touchdowns, while Eddie Lacy will punch a touchdown in late in the game. Out of the three top Green Bay receivers, I think that Jordy Nelson will have the biggest night with over 100 yards and at least one touchdown. I’ll take the over on at least 50% players that wear sleeves, even though all football players try to be macho like it proves something. The Packers move on to the divisional round. San Francisco 24, Green Bay 27

So now that we’ve taken care of the picks this weekend, let’s take a look at my predictions for the entire postseason. Before the year I took Denver to win the Lombardi Trophy...will I keep my pick the same?

AFC                                                                                             NFC

6 SD     27                            5 KC      17                                     6 NO     20                                   5 SF      24

3 CIN   14                            4 IND   24                                     3 PHI   31                                    4 GB     27

6 SD      24                          4 IND    23                                    4 GB     23                                   3 PHI    27

1 DEN   34                          2 NE      27                                     1 SEA   20                                   2 CAR   20

                      2 NE     31                                                                                      4 GB     31

                      1 DEN   34                                                                                     3 PHI   24

                                                                              Super Bowl

                                                                             1  DEN     31

                                                                             3  GB       27

Yes I will. I’m still picking the Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl, although that is hardly an objective pick. Firstly, I’ve had the Broncos winning it all since August, and they have done nothing to make me want to change my mind. Peyton Manning has had the greatest statistical season ever by a quarterback, and it’s hard to bet against that, even given his playoff track record and the recent loss of Von Miller. The NFC side of the playoff picture is much more interesting, as I do think the Green Bay Packers will make it to the Super Bowl now that Aaron Rodgers is back and ready to roll. I think that they will shock the world and take out the Seattle Seahawks in round two, and will meet the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game after the latter upsets the Carolina Panthers. I would love for the Panthers to get to the Super Bowl, but although they had a great season, I don’t think they have enough offensive weapons to make it there in Cam Newton’s first postseason. The Broncos will defeat the Pack in Giants Stadium in an offensive showdown between the two premiere quarterbacks in the NFL. I feel that it is now or never for Peyton Manning to win his second ring, because he will never be as good again as he was this year. Go Broncos, and good luck to all your teams this weekend. Happy 2014, and Happy Playoffs.

Lock of the Week: IND (+1.5)

Performance of the Week: LeSean McCoy, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Mathis

Surprise of the Week: Chargers over Bengals!

2013 NFL Week 17 Preview

Week 17 Preview

We’ve finally made it to the final week of the 2013 NFL regular season, and what a wild ride we’ve been on. I’d like to first congratulate all those out there who, unlike me, were able to win their fantasy football leagues this year; additionally, I hope everyone who celebrated it had a great Christmas, and that all of you readers have a Happy New Year as well. But now, to football. We are not much closer to understanding these teams than we were four months ago--after 16 games, only the Kansas City Chiefs are locked into a playoff spot, which is the 5th seed in the AFC. However, when the clock ticks to zero in Dallas on Sunday Night, we will know exactly who has made the playoffs, and which positions the teams shall be in. There has been two instances of major quarterback news to arrive over the last couple of days. The Green Bay Packers announced that Aaron Rodgers will return to the starting lineup on Sunday to take on the Bears. If the former MVP can put together a winning effort in his return, than miraculously, the Pack will make the playoffs despite Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn under center for half the season. Conversely, there was sadder news to come out of Dallas, as we learned that Tony Romo, following a fantastic comeback win against Washington, will miss the rest of the season with a herniated disk in his back. Although I actively root against the Cowboys, I do feel bad for Tony Romo; his career has been a tragedy since the bobbled snap in Seattle, and whether he won or lost on Sunday night, I still would have liked to see him out there with a chance to maybe have things go right for him. As for the rest of the games, they will be discussed in a manner of moments, and some of my predictions will be based on who I want to see in the playoffs, but I will make those feelings clear so that you know to take my pick with a grain of salt. I’ll try to sprinkle in some extra, more specific predictions throughout the piece if I can, but I will save the major stuff for the playoff games. For now, let’s just sit back and enjoy a Sunday full of all 16 games, with the playoffs just 60 minutes away for many teams.

CAR vs ATL (+6.5) - The Falcons deserved to lose on Monday Night to the 49ers, but had a chance at the end of the game to shock the world and throw the NFC playoff picture into a frenzy. Had Atlanta punched the ball in from ten yards out in the final minute, Seattle would have already clinched the NFC West and the top seed, while San Francisco would be in a dogfight with the Cardinals in Arizona this weekend for the final wild card spot, in danger of missing the postseason completely. This was not the case, but the Panthers were the team that was able to pull out a last second win and defeat the Saints for their biggest win of the season. Carolina is now firmly in position, with a win here, to go into January as NFC South Champions, and the two seed with a first round bye. Cam Newton has answered every challenge thrown his way this season, and should be very much in the running for second place in the MVP race (because let’s be honest, Peyton has locked up first). The only question left is if this team can seal the deal and win a division road game. So why take the points with Atlanta? Because this is always a close game, no matter what the records say. The Falcons will play with pride, and won’t roll over for anybody; Steve Smith is out for the Panthers, who don’t blow people out anyway; it is (allegedly) Tony Gonzalez’s last game as a pro, so there will be a lot of emotion; the Panthers might experience an emotional letdown after their huge win, while the Falcons have nothing to lose. However, DeAngelo Williams runs for 125 yards and a touchdown, and the Panthers will take the two seed. I picked them to make the playoffs before the season, but I had no idea they would be THIS good. Carolina 27, Atlanta 24

HOU (+7) vs TEN - This one will be much shorter. It is hard to comprehend the Houston Texans losing 14 games in a row, but that’s what we’re looking at. It’s also hard to imagine the Titans beating anybody by more than a touchdown. Houston 20, Tennessee 21

CLE vs PIT (-7) - The Browns showed promise early on in the season. I was obviously wrong about them making the playoffs. But they had halftime leads in each of their first six games; their quarterbacks were Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer, and Jason Campbell; Josh Gordon has blossomed into an unstoppable force; and they got a first round pick from the Trent Richardson trade that now looks like a masterpiece. Their putrid record does not indicate the performance of this team in 2013. They will be back, sooner rather than later. As for the Steelers, they are somehow still in the playoff hunt after starting out 0-4. They need to win this game and have losses from the Ravens, Dolphins, AND Chargers. This will most likely not happen, but that doesn’t mean they won’t take care of their part. Cleveland 17, Pittsburgh 34

WAS vs NYG (-3.5) - I know I’m going to be absolutely wrong about this, I have a horrible feeling about it. But the funniest part of this season still is, that even after this atrocity of a season for Washington, their top two pick goes to the St. Louis Rams. Farewell Mike Shanahan, and hopefully no farewell for Tom Coughlin--I still think he has the ability to rally the troops for a couple of more seasons to come. Also: beware of Kirk Cousins becoming the next Matt Flynn. Washington 20, New York 24

BAL (+6.5) vs CIN - This is blind faith. The Ravens really laid a goose egg against the Patriots last week, which was a huge letdown, and even in their previous win in Detroit they didn’t score a single touchdown. I still thought they had a chance to make a December run into the playoffs, but now this pick has become all heart and no head. If the Ravens win this game (and get the necessary help), than they will make the playoffs, with the Bengals falling to the 4th seed, where they will have to play Kansas City. This would be my dream scenario, so I’m making this an UPSET ALERT! Flacco needs to have a huge game, and the Ravens defense needs to do something that has been surprisingly hard to accomplish this season: stop Andy Dalton in Cincy. Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 17

JAC (+10.5) vs IND - Because the Colts never make anything look easy, except for beating really good teams, like they did last week by dismantling Kansas City. For all the inconsistency that Indy has shown this season, they really show up against top competition, as proved by their wins this year over KC, Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle. They are a team that could get bumped in the first round, or make it to the AFC Championship Game, and neither result would be particularly shocking. They established a nice gameplan for how to handle the Chiefs, and if they do indeed meet KC in the playoffs at home this time, they should have a considerable advantage. Even though he plays in a conference where Peyton Manning and Tom Brady still reign supreme, my original prediction for him coming out of college remains true: Andrew Luck will play in the Super Bowl sometime in his first five years as a pro. Jacksonville 17, Indianapolis 24

NYJ (+5.5) vs MIA - The Jets cannot make the playoffs, but they do still have a possibility of finishing 8-8, which is pretty incredible considering that they are starting an overwhelmed (for long stretches at a time) rookie at QB, lost Darrelle Revis on defense, and their second best receiver is Jeremy Kerley. Rex Ryan deserves to be back next year. As for the Dolphins, they had a chance to put themselves in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot last week in Buffalo and scored a whopping grand total of zero points. This team has talent but is not a contender, and a first round battle between Miami and Cincinnati would be unwatchable. They are not ready for the postseason yet, and the Jets are playing for potentially the head coach’s job. They will overpower the pathetic Dolphins’ offensive line, and be able to run the ball to eat up clock. Chris Ivory puts up DeAngelo Williams-like numbers this week to get our second UPSET ALERT. See you next year, Miami. By the way: this one goes to OT. New York 24, Miami 21

DET vs MIN (-2.5) - No Adrian Peterson? No problem. Stupid things happen in Week 17, and one of the things you should never do is pick the team who has quit on their coach. The Jim Schwartz era in Detroit is a lost cause, which is a shame because the Lions should have walked into the playoffs this year. They will play frustrated and make their usual boneheaded mistakes, and finish a disappointing year with a disappointing loss to the Vikings. Patterson and Jennings both break 100 yards. Detroit 27, Minnesota 31

GB (-3) vs CHI - The country will be watching the return of Aaron Rodgers. I have a sneaking suspicion that this will be an incredible sucker bet, but if it is, I’m going to fall in the trap as well. The Bears have been decent (besides the thrashing they took from the Eagles last week), but still not good enough to pull away from the hopeless Green Bay Packers. They kept the Cheeseheads in the race, and now Aaron Rodgers is back to make them pay for it. I hope the Packers win this game because I want to see what will happen when you put a pissed off Aaron Rodgers right into the playoffs. We know what the Bears are: a team with two great receivers but a porous defense that would get gashed on the ground against the 49ers in round one. The Packers, though? If Rodgers comes back full form, with the improvement of Eddy Lacy and the possibly concurrent return of Randall Cobb, why can’t this team make a playoff run to get at least a chance to play in Seattle? Rodgers throws 2 TD in this one, but Lacy will do the dirty work with 110 yards rushing, including about 30 to ice the game. Green Bay 34, Chicago 27

BUF (+8) vs NE - Just because I want to give myself a shimmer of hope that the Bills might take down the Patriots. It probably won’t happen, but Buffalo has come close to ousting the Patriots in recent years, and their defense is coming off their best game of the season. I really like the Bills heading into next season, when they will have an improved defense, a continued strong running game, and another year of learning for EJ Manuel and Doug Marrone. The Patriots are the Patriots. They will win this game, and have the two seed going into the playoffs. And I’m terrified of them. Buffalo 31, New England 35

TB vs NO (-12) - A win for the Saints gets them into the playoffs. After two straight crushing losses on the road, they will return home, where their offense is nearly unstoppable. Sean Payton lets Drew Brees throw it 50 times to score as many points as possible, and they will roll in this one. But they still will have to go on the road in the postseason, where they are not nearly the same team. Tampa Bay 13, New Orleans 34

DEN (-11) vs OAK - Congratulations to Peyton Manning for throwing his 51st TD pass of the season, an unbelievable feat. I’ll talk more about that when I review the season, but right now I’ll just say that since the Broncos still need to win this game to lock up the number one seed, Peyton will have a chance to extend his records and complete the greatest statistical year for a quarterback that we’ve ever seen. And since they are in a position where they have to win this game, you have to take the points. We’ll see if the loss of Von Miller looms large in January. Denver 41, Oakland 20

SF vs ARI (+1) - I wish this Cardinals team could get into the playoffs somehow; they absolutely deserve it and proved it by going INTO SEATTLE and beating the Seahawks, something no one has done since Russell Wilson has taken over at QB. They need to scratch and claw for this victory, while the Niners are already in the playoffs. Take the desperate team here, and hopefully the Cards can be rewarded with a playoff berth. Also, remember: the 49ers can still win the West! San Francisco 20, Arizona 23

KC (+9) vs SD - The line is what it is because the Chiefs already have their seed locked up for the playoffs, so they can afford to rest their starters. On the flip side, the Chargers need a win to have even a chance to keep playing in January. So why take the points? First of all, because the Chargers always fall asleep for one game in December without fail. Secondly, if Baltimore or Miami win during the 1:00 games, than the Chargers won’t have a chance of getting the six seed anymore, and this game wouldn’t mean anything for them either. Third, I think Knile Davis is really good backing up Jamaal Charles, and will have a chance to shine in this game. Nine points is just a lot to ask with so many variables. Ideally, stay away from this one. If the Baltimore Ravens don’t get that six seed from the early games, the Chargers would be my backup pick for that spot. I think they would win in Cincy, and then travel to Denver for round two, where they just won a couple of weeks ago. Kansas City 23, San Diego 27

STL vs SEA (-11.5) - The big dogs aren’t messing around this week. If the Seahawks win, they get the one seed. If they lose, they could fall all the way to five. So take the points. There will be blood. Time to unleash BEAST MODE. St. Louis 16, Seattle 31

PHI vs DAL (+7) - Kyle Orton will be starting for the Cowboys, and the line jumped all the way up to the Eagles being favored by a touchdown. No doubt this was aided by the fact that the Eagles’ offense has looked absolutely dominant recently, and much credit for that is due to Chip Kelly. I’ll tell you what, though: Kyle Orton is an experienced starter who knows how to win in the NFL. Right now, they are the ultimate Nobody Believes in Us team, and they also don’t have the Romo Week 17 stink on them. Call me crazy, but UPSET AL........no. Just kidding. Yes, I am taking the points, but you have to take the Eagles to win outright in this game. LeSean McCoy should run rings around the Cowboys’ defense, while the Philly receivers should be open all day. The only reason I’m taking the seven is because really nobody actually believes in Kyle Orton, and you know what that means...the Eagles may and should win this game, and it could even be a blowout, but if it is, it will NOT be because of Orton’s miscues. Dallas jumps out to an early lead an even is still ahead at halftime 17-13. I think Philly goes on a late game run and eventually takes the game. It’ll probably end in heartbreaking fashion, like with Dan Bailey missing a 53 yard field goal wide right, because Romo won’t be in there to throw the killer interception. What, too soon? Philadelphia 30, Dallas 27

Lock of the Week: PIT (-7)

Performance of the Week: D Williams, C Ivory, L McCoy, M Lynch

Surprise of the Week: Final playoff seedings as my surprise. In order.

AFC: DEN, NE, IND, CIN, KC, BAL

NFC: SEA, CAR, PHI, GB, SF, NO

2013 NFL Week 16 Preview

Week 16 Preview

There are two games left in the 2013 regular season and there are still only a few certainties regarding the postseason for either conference. Do you know that it is still possible for the Baltimore Ravens to get the 2 seed in the AFC? What about the fact that the NFC North, East, and South will come down to the final game? So much could happen in these last couple of weeks that it is impossible to predict what will happen down the stretch, but I’ll give it a shot. Week 15 gave us some exciting games, but none bigger than the Packers-Cowboys game that dominated the headlines on Monday. Dallas, on cue, choked up a 26-3 halftime lead to lose to Green Bay 37-36. They gave up five touchdowns on five second half possessions to Matt Flynn, and ran the ball a grand total of SEVEN times in the final two quarters, even though DeMarco Murray was gashing the defense. Tony Romo threw two interceptions right at the end of the game that are inexcusable; it’s amazing that no matter how good this guy can be, the dumb play will always be made. And yet, even after that catastrophe, the Cowboys still control their own destiny in the NFC East! What a crazy season. We finally don’t have a stupid Thursday game, which means that Sunday will be full of fantastic football. Let’s get into the do-or-die matchups for Week 16.

DAL (-3) vs WAS - I just recapped what happened with the Cowboys last week, so I won’t get into it again. But that result made it obvious what is going to happen this week: Big D is going to win a close game. While Tony Romo makes an extraordinary amount of dumb plays on a national stage, he usually follows it up with a clutch play to get everyone excited again, before the next inevitable screwup. If you think that the NFC isn’t going to come down to the final game of the season (DAL vs PHI) like it does every year, you’re wrong. The Cowboys will win a tight, wild game. Washington, meanwhile, is irrelevant. I hope the Rams enjoy their top two pick. Dallas 23, Washington 20

MIA vs BUF (+3) - I keep picking the Dolphins to lose a game because I don’t think they are real playoff contenders, but they keep proving me wrong. They are bound to slip up at some point, right? While the Bills have really struggled (I think they will be much better next year), they are solid at home, and I think they will bounce back. It’s a mini-upset here, as the Bills win straight up. Miami 16, Buffalo 27

MIN vs CIN (-7.5) - The Bengals showed their true colors last week by getting stomped on out of the gate by the Steelers. The Bengals are frauds, but there is still a chance that they could get the two seed! On the other hand, it’s still possible that they could fall to the Ravens in the North as well. But they are coming off a loss, and now playing at home against a crappy Vikings team. They have been blowing out these games all season long, and they will today to get everyone back on the bandwagon, but just wait: this team will fall early in the postseason. Minnesota 13, Cincinnati 31

TEN vs JAC (+4.5) - Again: the Jags have won four out of six, and beat the Titans when they played in Tennessee. What’s up with the line here? I’m just going to close my eyes and say either the Jags win, or the Titans take it by three. Tennessee 23, Jacksonville 20

IND vs KC (-6.5) - This seems like a classic trap game because the Colts have been less than impressive while the Chiefs have had an offensive explosion the last couple of weeks. With the Broncos’ loss to the Chargers and the fact that Indy has already clinched the division, I think KC comes out with more fire at home since they can still take the number one seed. While the Colts have been great against top teams, those wins have mostly come at home. Indianapolis 20, Kansas City 28

CLE vs NYJ (-2.5) - I hope that you have more options on your TV than just this game. Cleveland 13, New York 16

DEN (-11.5) vs HOU - Duh. Make it 13 straight losses for the sorry Texans, and there’s a chance we could see some history from number 18 in this one. Denver 38, Houston 14

TB (+5.5) vs STL - I don’t know if I’ve gotten a single Rams game correct the entire season. I’m probably going to be wrong about this one too. They have been on a roll recently and absolutely dismantled the Saints last week, but I can’t take them here because they could still come back and lose by 20 this week. As for the Bucs, with the recent spurt of wins they’ve had with Mike Glennon and Bobby Rainey at RB, it might be possible for Greg Schiano to keep his job after the season. Tampa Bay 20, St. Louis 24

NO vs CAR (-3.5) - OK, Carolina, this is it. I was wrong a couple of weeks ago when I took the Panthers to win in the Superdome, but I did say that they would split the two games, which means that they will win this one. With the Saints laying an egg last week, these two teams are tied once again, which means that if the Panthers can pull this one out, they only need a win against the Falcons next week to get the two seed in the NFC! Carolina has come so far since the start of the season, and it would be great if Cam Newton and Ron Rivera can overcome their final obstacle: taking the division title away from Drew Brees and Sean Payton. New Orleans 24, Carolina 28

NYG (+9.5) vs DET - The Lions are absolutely pathetic. A few weeks ago, after beating the Chicago Bears for the second time to get to 6-3, and with Aaron Rodgers still out for the Packers, Detroit was in a huge driver’s seat in the NFC North. Since then, they have dropped four out of five, including home losses to Tampa Bay and Baltimore, consistently blowing halftime leads. They had a golden opportunity to establish themselves as a force in the NFC and have just completely collapsed. It is impossible to trust them, and so while they should be able to beat the lowly Giants, if you want to bet on this game it’s hard to justify laying almost ten points. New York 17, Detroit 24

ARI (+10.5) vs SEA - Total pride game for the Cardinals. If they lose this one, they will be out of the playoffs, and while I do think they come up short, they have enough fight to stay within ten of Seattle. Russell Wilson has yet to lose a home game in his career, and that streak continues in this one. The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will go through Seattle. Arizona 17, Seattle 23

PIT (+2.5) vs GB - Matt Flynn had an incredible second half against the atrocious Cowboys defense, and that definitely impacted the line a lot for this game. It is a whole different ballgame to repeat that feat against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember: the Pack were down 26-3 at halftime; there’s a reason for that. Give me the Steel City straight up in this one, pulling one out on the road. Pittsburgh 27, Green Bay 24

OAK (+10.5) vs SD - I know I picked the Raiders to beat the Chiefs last week, and while that was a terrible pick, I was right about a major upset happening--it was the Vikings over the Eagles. I have another opportunity to take them in an upset here, but I don’t think I can do it. Either way, this is basically the exact game that the Chargers lose every single year; not specifically to the Raiders, but a game in late December with San Diego coming off a huge win and losing to an inferior opponent to knock themselves out of the playoff race. Watch out for this one. Oakland 26, San Diego 27

NE vs BAL (-2.5) - Did you really expect anything else? Give me the Ravens all the way. The Pats are without Gronk, and the Ravens know how to play physically against this team. I have basically almost predicted this entire season for Baltimore, with the slow start followed by a late season burst. They are peaking at the right time, and I think their pride gets them a win over their playoff rivals. New England 20, Baltimore 23

CHI (+2.5) vs PHI - A major Sunday Night game for both teams in the playoff hunt. I think this is a sneaky good Bears team, at least if they could produce any kind of rush defense whatsoever. The NFC North is the Bears’ division to lose, and I think that they get one step closer to the three seed. One of the Chicago receivers is going to have 150 yards and two touchdowns. My money is on Jeffrey. Chicago 31, Philadelphia 27

ATL (+11.5) vs SF - It’s just a lot of points to lay in a game that I think the Niners are going to win comfortably. There’s a lot of room for a backdoor cover, or San Fran taking their foot off the gas pedal. The line is 11.5, so I’ll take the 49ers by exactly 11. Atlanta 16, San Francisco 27

Lock of the Week: OAK (+10.5), DEN (-11.5)

Performance of the Week: Alshon Jeffrey, Antonio Brown, DeMarco Murray

Surprise of the Week: CIN and CAR will be the 2 seeds after this week

2013 NFL Week 15 Preview

Week 15 Preview

Whoa! How crazy were the endings to the 1:00 games last week? The stretch from about 3:15-4:15 last Sunday was insane, thanks in a large part to the AFC North teams. Between two touchdowns in under two minutes (Patriots), an almost epic lateral play (Steelers), and FIVE touchdowns in the last 2:05 of the game (Vikings vs Ravens), we were given three of the best finishes of the entire season. In the later games, the 49ers, Saints, and Bears all came up with big home wins against potential playoff opponents, while the Cardinals and Chargers both won to stay alive in their respective playoff races. The Lions and Eagles played a very fun game in a blizzard before Detroit forgot that defense was a thing, and if anyone is against a snowy Super Bowl in New York this year, you can leave. And finally, we had our first coach firing of the season. Does anyone remember when the Texans were 11-1 last year? It’s all been downhill from there. Good luck Gary Kubiak. Week 15 sports an unusual amount of road favorites, so we could be in store for a number of upsets. After all, we already saw one on Thursday!

SD vs DEN (-10.5) - My thinking on this was to always take the Broncos at home and expect Peyton to put up 40 until he proves otherwise. The Chargers played an incredible game a couple of nights ago, running the ball and keeping Peyton off the field. There were a few stats I did not take into account when making this prediction. First, did you know Philip Rivers is completing 70% of his passes this year? What? Without Malcolm Floyd and Danario Alexander? What has gotten into this guy? Second, Rivers is now on a 6-2 stretch IN Denver, and third, since 2006 the Chargers are like 31-6 in December/January regular season games. San Diego simply outplayed Denver at Mile High, and it’s a shame that they couldn’t play like that all season long; they still have a chance to get the 6 seed in the AFC but if they didn’t randomly suck they would have been locked in for it. San Diego 27, Denver 20

WAS (+6.5) vs ATL - Washington has been an absolute disaster this season. RGIII is now shut down for the rest of the season for Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and you know what? I think that will help them. The Shanahan-Griffin circus will be put on hold, and I think Cousins will bring some normalcy to the team. They will get back to the running game and I expect Alfred Morris to have a big day. The Falcons are...irrelevant. UPSET ALERT! Washington beats the Falcons, but it won’t matter: Shanahan will still be fired after the season, and they still have to hilariously give up their top five draft pick to the Rams so they won’t be able to get a game-changing player. Washington 24, Atlanta 20

SF vs TB (+6) - The Niners were back to form last week and pulled out a win against their rivals, the Seattle Seahawks. Their defense looks scary, and they can run the ball as well as almost anybody in the league. However, they aren’t as good on the road, the Bucs are pretty good against the run, and offensively, Tampa has vastly improved from where they were with Josh Freeman. I expect this to be one of those “close, but comfortable” wins for San Fran, where maybe they are up 10 or 11 and the Buccaneers get a late TD but their lead is never really in jeopardy. San Francisco still has a shot at the 5 seed in the NFC, which could potentially get them out of a Seattle matchup until the NFC Championship. San Francisco 24, Tampa Bay 20

SEA (-7) vs NYG - The Giants are beyond done. They won’t be able to move the ball against a Seahawks team who had to lose that San Fran game to get their edge back. I think this one is over relatively early. The ‘Hawks will go 20 in the first half of the third quarter. Seattle 34, New York 13

CHI (-1) vs CLE - Before I get into the Bears’ quarterback dilemma, I need to yell at the Browns for a second. HOW DO YOU LOSE A 12-POINT LEAD WITH LESS THAN TWO MINUTES AFTER DOMINATING THE WHOLE GAME. They had the Patriots dead to rights in New England and couldn’t seal the deal, in part because of a dreadful pass interference call. But it should never have got to that point. Probably just as well; go for the draft pick, Cleveland! Also: YOU’RE WELCOME FOR TELLING YOU TO TAKE JOSH GORDON IN FANTASY BEFORE THE SEASON. As for Chicago, I can’t say whether I agree or disagree with the decision to start Jay Cutler in this game because the answer depends on where they are going with the franchise. Play McCown if you want to win right now; play Cutler if you are thinking about the future. Cutler is a free agent after this year, so if the Bears are going to looking to bring him back with a contract extension, they have to know if he can play well enough where it’s worth signing him long-term. In that case, you have to throw him out there for the final three games; they are tied with the Lions right now atop the NFC North, so if Cutler can’t lead the Bears to the playoffs right now, then he probably doesn’t deserve to be the future QB in Chi-town. If they are just looking to try to make the playoffs this season, and/or are planning to put the franchise tag on Cutler for next year anyway, then I say go with McCown. Down the stretch, you go with the hot hand, and McCown has been brilliant, especially on Monday Night (I know, I know--against the Cowboys, but still, he was fantastic). They are choosing to play Cutler, which is fine, but they should have him on a short leash with McCown ready roll if need be. They can’t afford any losses, but no matter who is playing quarterback for them this week, I think they get by the Browns. A quick side note: the Marshall-Jeffrey tandem at wide receiver has immediately become the best WR combo in the league, right there with the trio from Denver. Chicago 31, Cleveland 17

HOU vs IND (-6) - I feel horrible about this pick. Not confident at all. The Colts, since Reggie Wayne’s injury, have been awfully inconsistent on offense AND defense. I have one premise for this pick, and one only: you have to take a playoff team at home facing a team who has lost 11 in a row when the line is under a touchdown, right? Right? Houston 20, Indianapolis 27

BUF vs JAC (+2) - Four teams in the AFC have a 3-game winning streak: the New England Patriots, the Cincinnati Bengals, the Baltimore Ravens, and...the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS!!!!! It’s amazing how little respect this team gets from Vegas. They were underdogs last week to Houston at home even though they had won three games in their last four and the Texans had lost ten straight. Now the Jags have won four out of five to get to 4-9 and are playing at home against the also 4-9 Bills who suck on the road and are two point...underdogs? What? I know they had a historically bad start, but still...Buffalo 17, Jacksonville 21

NE (-1) vs MIA - The Patriots should have lost last week. But they are only giving one point in a December game? That’s too good to pass up. This game is less about the division battle and more about the big picture in the AFC playoff picture; the Patriots, after the Denver loss on Thursday, now control their own destiny for the number one seed, while the Dolphins are still neck and neck with the Ravens for the six spot. The loss of Gronkowski for the Pats is devastating; their offense was rolling, but now all they have at receiver are Edelman and Amendola, who do the same thing. They have no deep threat, and Brady’s new number one weapon is Shane Vareen, who defenses will now be able to key in on stopping. They will still be a force in the playoffs, but I don’t see them getting home field advantage in the postseason, or making it out of the AFC. Meanwhile, the Dolphins, who have been surprisingly under the radar after the locker room bullying incident (plus so much attention has been given to Washington), have played extremely well to stay in the wild card race. The last two weeks, they have beaten the Jets and Steelers on the road, who were two teams also battling for the last playoff spot. The previous week they came within a minute of beating the Panthers. I don’t think they will get the six seed (my money is on Baltimore), but they do have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers if it comes to that. They deserve a lot of credit for battling through this adversity and giving themselves a chance to play in January. New England 27, Miami 24

PHI (-6.5) vs MIN - I wanted to take the Vikings so bad to cover. I couldn’t do it. Their pass defense is atrocious. Philly loves to throw the ball deep. All signs point to a monster day from Nick Foles. Early candidate for a big leap next year: Cordarrelle Patterson. If they get a viable QB in Minnesota, he will really take off like Alshon Jeffrey has this year. You heard it here first. Week 15 preview. Philadelphia 31, Minnesota 17

NYJ vs CAR (-10.5) - Ok, so I really missed on Carolina last week. They were the latest team to fall victim to playing the Saints in the Superdome at night. However, I’m getting this one right. Their winning streak has finally ended, so now they have the taste and drive to get back in the W column. They get the Saints again next week, and need a tune-up game to get their confidence flowing heading into that one. Oh, what do you know? They get Geno Smith and the Jets at home! I have a feeling this is going to be an ass-kicking. A pissed off Panthers team taking out their frustration on the completely overmatched Jets. New York 13, Carolina 37

KC vs OAK (+6.5) - This is going to happen to one of the road favorites this week. I feel like the best bet is the Chiefs and Raiders. Kansas City put up 45 on the atrocity that is Washington last week, in a game that was over by the second quarter, which probably swung this line a point or two. Meanwhile, the Raiders with Matt McGloin has not been bad, amazingly. They have been able to put up points the last couple of weeks in Dallas and in New York against the Jets, even though they lost both of those games. The Chiefs have new life after they now have the same number of losses as the Broncos (three), but I think that goes up to four by the end of the weekend. The Raiders shake up the AFC playoff race! UPSET ALERT. Kansas City 23, Oakland 24

ARI vs TEN (+3) - A battle between Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick! This game will be borderline unwatchable. While the Cardinals have been good, I think the physical Titans secondary will limit the damage from their wide receivers. The Cards have a great defense at home but not so much on the road, so in a complete gut call, I’m going to take the Titans in this one. This would all but knock the Cardinals out of the playoff race. Arizona 14, Tennessee 17

NO (-6.5) vs STL - The only question you have to ask yourself is whether Kellen Clemens can keep pace with Drew Brees. I mean, come on. New Orleans 34, St. Louis 17

GB (+6) vs DAL - Aaron Rodgers is still not playing, and even though the Pack are 1-4-1 in the games he’s missed, they are only HALF A GAME BEHIND THE DIVISION LEAD. If the former MVP were playing, they would be running away with the North right now. And if life has taught me one thing, it is to almost never take the ‘Boys to cover at home. How bad can their defense get? However, I still think Dallas comes up with a win that they need to stay in the East race. If you think this division won’t come down to the Week 17 game between Dallas and Philly, you’re wrong. I told you the Cowboys would lose last Monday, by the way. I had it as a lock. Why would you ever think they could get to 8-5? You could see that one coming from a mile away. Green Bay 23, Dallas 27

CIN vs PIT (+2.5) - The Bengals have been on a roll, which means it is time for them to blow a game. They are on the road, against a division rival, playing in hostile Pittsburgh, in a primetime game. This is almost as obvious as the Dallas game last week. And side note about the lateral play from the Steelers last week: Big Ben’s toss was forward, so it didn’t matter whether Antonio Brown stepped out of bounds or not. But I’m glad they let the play continue because it was really exciting. My guess here is that the Steelers, even though they won’t make the playoffs, have a home night game left on the schedule and they will play with an enormous amount of pride. They get the W and take down the Bengals, pretty much ensuring them the 3 seed. Cincinnati 20, Pittsburgh 24

BAL (+6) vs DET - A big time Monday Night showdown between 7-6 teams in their respective conferences fighting to stay alive for the playoffs. One of these teams has what it takes to win the tough games in December; the other repeatedly makes stupid mistakes and shoots itself in the foot. Who do you think I’m taking. I love the Ravens. With Dennis Pitta back, there’s a chance this team could once again go on a late run into the playoffs since their offense will be much improved. This is, once again, a full on UPSET ALERT. A lot of crazy games this week, and I think it ends with a Monday Night upset in Detroit. Watch out for the Ravens, everybody! Baltimore 31, Detroit 24

Lock of the Week: CAR (-10.5), PIT (+2.5), BAL (+6)

Performance of the Week: It’s the resurgence of Julian Edelman and Riley Cooper

Surprise of the Week: OAK over KC, Kobe drops 30 by next week

2013 NFL Week 14 Preview

Week 14 Preview

So much happened in the world since I made my last preview, but I have to apologize for not being able to go into much detail in this piece about them--it’s finals week for me, but by next week I’ll be home and have much more time to discuss the events of the last few days. But just some initial thoughts: first of all, the ending to the Auburn-Alabama game is the best ending to a football game I’ve ever seen in my life. I was rooting for Auburn, and I was stunned watching that field goal get returned the length of the field. Since then, Auburn beat Missouri to win the SEC, and it looks like they will take on Florida State in the BCS National Championship Game. Next, a respectful RIP has to go out to Paul Walker and, of course, Nelson Mandela. Finally, I’m going to be talking about this more in the next couple of weeks, but I LOVE the moves made by the Yankees so far this offseason. They have brought in Brian McCann to give themselves their first good offensive catcher since Jorge left; they signed Jacoby Ellsbury away from the Red Sox, who, if healthy, could absolutely hit 20-25 home runs and steal 50 bases; they snatched up veteran Carlos Beltran, who can still play well, and more importantly, is GREAT in the postseason. Even bigger is what they lost: Curtis Granderson signed with the Mets, meaning that the Yanks will now have a .230 batting average and 200 strikeouts out of their lineup. But of course, the biggest news: Robinson Cano signing a 10-year, $240 million contract with the Seattle Mariners. Will Cano be difficult to replace? Obviously. But I’m glad he’s gone. This is another example of a poison contract that will not be worth the value. Cano is not a Yankee; he isn’t a leader, even though he has all the talent in the world. He doesn’t hustle, doesn’t live up to expectations, and can’t be the best player on a team. We saw this year with all the Yankees injured, Cano only had 27 homers and 107 RBIs. He only cares about money and being famous. He got his money, but now he is going to spend the next decade as an irrelevant underachiever in Seattle. The Mariners paid $240 million for a player who has never hit 35 home runs, never had 125 RBIs, and has won one batting title back in 2006. I’d absolutely rather have those other pieces collectively than Cano. The Yanks still need pitching, but as far as the offensive changes, I fully approve. Now, let’s finally get to the football games!

HOU vs JAC (+2.5) - Once again, the lines have gotten so ridiculous that instead of never picking the Jags again, it would be stupid not to take them! Once 0-8, Jacksonville is now 4-9 after winning on Thursday. But seriously Vegas...how were the Jaguars NOT favored in this game? I know they started the season historically bad, but the Texans had lost 10 games in a row. The Jags had won three games since the Texans won last, and that includes a road win IN HOUSTON! This was such an obvious result, and now the Texans have lost 11 in a row and have fired Gary Kubiak.

KC (-3.5) vs WAS - I mean I know the Chiefs have struggled, but that was against Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning twice. If they can’t beat Washington, then that 9-0 start will be meaningless. They will get back on track. Everything that could go wrong, has been going wrong for Washington. Kansas City 27, Washington 17

MIN (+6.5) vs BAL - This is a classic case of the Ravens winning a tight game in December to stay atop the race for the 6 seed, but they aren’t explosive enough to blow people out. Minnesota 20, Baltimore 23

CLE vs NE (-10.5) - I mean, come on. The Patriots, at home, in December? I loved rooting for the Browns this season, but it’s over. Just try to get the best draft picks possible. Cleveland 16, New England 34

OAK vs NYJ (-3) - The Jets are atrocious on offense, but they usually play better at home, and I think that against the Raiders, a bounce-back game might be in order. Remember, the J-E-T-S have beaten the Saints and Patriots at home this season. Oakland 17, New York 21

IND (+7) vs CIN - I’m taking the Colts to win outright, but I’m not making it a full upset alert because I do not trust them one bit. I just hate Cincinnati. However, this is an important game for both teams; the winner of this one is most likely going to win the AFC’s 3 seed, avoiding a first round matchup against the Chiefs. Indianapolis 23, Cincinnati 20

DET (+2.5) vs PHI - Just like the previous game, this contest has major implications for the 3 seed in the NFC. The Lions absolutely annihilated the Packers on Thanksgiving, and I think that they might have found something. This is a complete toss-up game, but I think the Lions will be able to move the ball better on the Eagles’ D than the other way around. Detroit 31, Philadelphia 24

MIA (+3.5) vs PIT - A big game in the AFC playoff picture for the final spot. Both teams have pretty good defenses and putrid offensive lines. I don’t really have any extra analysis for this one. Steelers win by three. Miami 17, Pittsburgh 20

BUF vs TB (-3) - I thought that the Bills might be able to make a late push for the playoffs if they won out, but they literally coughed up a shot at that by losing fumbles in the fourth quarter and overtime. Their season is over. Buffalo 17, Tampa Bay 24

ATL vs GB (-4) - I know that Thanksgiving was a complete embarrassment for the Pack, but they have extra rest, they are back at home, and Matt Flynn can play well against terrible defenses. A gut feeling for me, but I think that Green Bay stays in the race by winning by a touchdown. Atlanta 20, Green Bay 27

TEN vs DEN (-13.5) - Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Peyton Manning. Tennessee 17, Denver 41

STL (+5) vs ARI - The Rams can score 10 points one week and 42 the next, and give up those same numbers on defense. The Arizona Cardinals play extreme defense at home, but I don’t think the offense will be able to pull away. St. Louis 17, Arizona 20

NYG (+4) vs SD - I want the Giants to win. The Chargers are too inconsistent; how do you come up with a huge win against the Chiefs and then blow a winnable game at home against the Bengals??? Sickening. By the way, this is a really interesting scenario where these teams aren’t rivals, but the Charger fans hate Eli because he didn’t want to play in San Diego after they drafted him in 2004. New York 24, San Diego 21

SEA (+2.5) vs SF - The performance by the Seahawks last Monday Night against the Saints was absolutely terrifying. They are going to have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and no one can beat them up in the Pacific Northwest. They do everything the 49ers do better than them, and they might not lose again until the 2014 season. Seattle 27, San Francisco 19

CAR (+3.5) vs NO - What a Sunday Night matchup. Both teams are 9-3, and they play twice in the next three games. One of the unwritten rules of picking games is to never go against the Saints at home in a night game. But I love the Panthers and they are on an amazing ride. I think they win outright here, but they will peak in this game. No matter what, these two teams will split their two meetings, but I’m taking Carolina to continue their magical ride. Carolina 31, New Orleans 28

DAL vs CHI (+1.5) - Both of these teams are right in the thick of the playoff chase, and it’s amazing to me that the Cowboys are favored. This is the easiest pick of the entire week. It is a Monday Night game on the road in December for the Cowboys, against the very proud Chicago Bears, who can torch them threw the air. The Cowboys find a way to go 8-8 every year, and I’m shocked so many experts are picking them. They are 7-5 right now, and if there is one thing that is certain on this Earth, is that there is NO WAY that the Dallas Cowboys will be 8-5. They always regress back to .500 in the end. Dallas 20, Chicago 24

Lock of the Week: JAC (+2.5), CHI (+1.5)

Performance of the Week: Cam Newton (CAR)

Surprise of the Week: Panthers beat the Saints to take control of the NFC South!