2013 NFL Week 15 Preview

Week 15 Preview

Whoa! How crazy were the endings to the 1:00 games last week? The stretch from about 3:15-4:15 last Sunday was insane, thanks in a large part to the AFC North teams. Between two touchdowns in under two minutes (Patriots), an almost epic lateral play (Steelers), and FIVE touchdowns in the last 2:05 of the game (Vikings vs Ravens), we were given three of the best finishes of the entire season. In the later games, the 49ers, Saints, and Bears all came up with big home wins against potential playoff opponents, while the Cardinals and Chargers both won to stay alive in their respective playoff races. The Lions and Eagles played a very fun game in a blizzard before Detroit forgot that defense was a thing, and if anyone is against a snowy Super Bowl in New York this year, you can leave. And finally, we had our first coach firing of the season. Does anyone remember when the Texans were 11-1 last year? It’s all been downhill from there. Good luck Gary Kubiak. Week 15 sports an unusual amount of road favorites, so we could be in store for a number of upsets. After all, we already saw one on Thursday!

SD vs DEN (-10.5) - My thinking on this was to always take the Broncos at home and expect Peyton to put up 40 until he proves otherwise. The Chargers played an incredible game a couple of nights ago, running the ball and keeping Peyton off the field. There were a few stats I did not take into account when making this prediction. First, did you know Philip Rivers is completing 70% of his passes this year? What? Without Malcolm Floyd and Danario Alexander? What has gotten into this guy? Second, Rivers is now on a 6-2 stretch IN Denver, and third, since 2006 the Chargers are like 31-6 in December/January regular season games. San Diego simply outplayed Denver at Mile High, and it’s a shame that they couldn’t play like that all season long; they still have a chance to get the 6 seed in the AFC but if they didn’t randomly suck they would have been locked in for it. San Diego 27, Denver 20

WAS (+6.5) vs ATL - Washington has been an absolute disaster this season. RGIII is now shut down for the rest of the season for Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and you know what? I think that will help them. The Shanahan-Griffin circus will be put on hold, and I think Cousins will bring some normalcy to the team. They will get back to the running game and I expect Alfred Morris to have a big day. The Falcons are...irrelevant. UPSET ALERT! Washington beats the Falcons, but it won’t matter: Shanahan will still be fired after the season, and they still have to hilariously give up their top five draft pick to the Rams so they won’t be able to get a game-changing player. Washington 24, Atlanta 20

SF vs TB (+6) - The Niners were back to form last week and pulled out a win against their rivals, the Seattle Seahawks. Their defense looks scary, and they can run the ball as well as almost anybody in the league. However, they aren’t as good on the road, the Bucs are pretty good against the run, and offensively, Tampa has vastly improved from where they were with Josh Freeman. I expect this to be one of those “close, but comfortable” wins for San Fran, where maybe they are up 10 or 11 and the Buccaneers get a late TD but their lead is never really in jeopardy. San Francisco still has a shot at the 5 seed in the NFC, which could potentially get them out of a Seattle matchup until the NFC Championship. San Francisco 24, Tampa Bay 20

SEA (-7) vs NYG - The Giants are beyond done. They won’t be able to move the ball against a Seahawks team who had to lose that San Fran game to get their edge back. I think this one is over relatively early. The ‘Hawks will go 20 in the first half of the third quarter. Seattle 34, New York 13

CHI (-1) vs CLE - Before I get into the Bears’ quarterback dilemma, I need to yell at the Browns for a second. HOW DO YOU LOSE A 12-POINT LEAD WITH LESS THAN TWO MINUTES AFTER DOMINATING THE WHOLE GAME. They had the Patriots dead to rights in New England and couldn’t seal the deal, in part because of a dreadful pass interference call. But it should never have got to that point. Probably just as well; go for the draft pick, Cleveland! Also: YOU’RE WELCOME FOR TELLING YOU TO TAKE JOSH GORDON IN FANTASY BEFORE THE SEASON. As for Chicago, I can’t say whether I agree or disagree with the decision to start Jay Cutler in this game because the answer depends on where they are going with the franchise. Play McCown if you want to win right now; play Cutler if you are thinking about the future. Cutler is a free agent after this year, so if the Bears are going to looking to bring him back with a contract extension, they have to know if he can play well enough where it’s worth signing him long-term. In that case, you have to throw him out there for the final three games; they are tied with the Lions right now atop the NFC North, so if Cutler can’t lead the Bears to the playoffs right now, then he probably doesn’t deserve to be the future QB in Chi-town. If they are just looking to try to make the playoffs this season, and/or are planning to put the franchise tag on Cutler for next year anyway, then I say go with McCown. Down the stretch, you go with the hot hand, and McCown has been brilliant, especially on Monday Night (I know, I know--against the Cowboys, but still, he was fantastic). They are choosing to play Cutler, which is fine, but they should have him on a short leash with McCown ready roll if need be. They can’t afford any losses, but no matter who is playing quarterback for them this week, I think they get by the Browns. A quick side note: the Marshall-Jeffrey tandem at wide receiver has immediately become the best WR combo in the league, right there with the trio from Denver. Chicago 31, Cleveland 17

HOU vs IND (-6) - I feel horrible about this pick. Not confident at all. The Colts, since Reggie Wayne’s injury, have been awfully inconsistent on offense AND defense. I have one premise for this pick, and one only: you have to take a playoff team at home facing a team who has lost 11 in a row when the line is under a touchdown, right? Right? Houston 20, Indianapolis 27

BUF vs JAC (+2) - Four teams in the AFC have a 3-game winning streak: the New England Patriots, the Cincinnati Bengals, the Baltimore Ravens, and...the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS!!!!! It’s amazing how little respect this team gets from Vegas. They were underdogs last week to Houston at home even though they had won three games in their last four and the Texans had lost ten straight. Now the Jags have won four out of five to get to 4-9 and are playing at home against the also 4-9 Bills who suck on the road and are two point...underdogs? What? I know they had a historically bad start, but still...Buffalo 17, Jacksonville 21

NE (-1) vs MIA - The Patriots should have lost last week. But they are only giving one point in a December game? That’s too good to pass up. This game is less about the division battle and more about the big picture in the AFC playoff picture; the Patriots, after the Denver loss on Thursday, now control their own destiny for the number one seed, while the Dolphins are still neck and neck with the Ravens for the six spot. The loss of Gronkowski for the Pats is devastating; their offense was rolling, but now all they have at receiver are Edelman and Amendola, who do the same thing. They have no deep threat, and Brady’s new number one weapon is Shane Vareen, who defenses will now be able to key in on stopping. They will still be a force in the playoffs, but I don’t see them getting home field advantage in the postseason, or making it out of the AFC. Meanwhile, the Dolphins, who have been surprisingly under the radar after the locker room bullying incident (plus so much attention has been given to Washington), have played extremely well to stay in the wild card race. The last two weeks, they have beaten the Jets and Steelers on the road, who were two teams also battling for the last playoff spot. The previous week they came within a minute of beating the Panthers. I don’t think they will get the six seed (my money is on Baltimore), but they do have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers if it comes to that. They deserve a lot of credit for battling through this adversity and giving themselves a chance to play in January. New England 27, Miami 24

PHI (-6.5) vs MIN - I wanted to take the Vikings so bad to cover. I couldn’t do it. Their pass defense is atrocious. Philly loves to throw the ball deep. All signs point to a monster day from Nick Foles. Early candidate for a big leap next year: Cordarrelle Patterson. If they get a viable QB in Minnesota, he will really take off like Alshon Jeffrey has this year. You heard it here first. Week 15 preview. Philadelphia 31, Minnesota 17

NYJ vs CAR (-10.5) - Ok, so I really missed on Carolina last week. They were the latest team to fall victim to playing the Saints in the Superdome at night. However, I’m getting this one right. Their winning streak has finally ended, so now they have the taste and drive to get back in the W column. They get the Saints again next week, and need a tune-up game to get their confidence flowing heading into that one. Oh, what do you know? They get Geno Smith and the Jets at home! I have a feeling this is going to be an ass-kicking. A pissed off Panthers team taking out their frustration on the completely overmatched Jets. New York 13, Carolina 37

KC vs OAK (+6.5) - This is going to happen to one of the road favorites this week. I feel like the best bet is the Chiefs and Raiders. Kansas City put up 45 on the atrocity that is Washington last week, in a game that was over by the second quarter, which probably swung this line a point or two. Meanwhile, the Raiders with Matt McGloin has not been bad, amazingly. They have been able to put up points the last couple of weeks in Dallas and in New York against the Jets, even though they lost both of those games. The Chiefs have new life after they now have the same number of losses as the Broncos (three), but I think that goes up to four by the end of the weekend. The Raiders shake up the AFC playoff race! UPSET ALERT. Kansas City 23, Oakland 24

ARI vs TEN (+3) - A battle between Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick! This game will be borderline unwatchable. While the Cardinals have been good, I think the physical Titans secondary will limit the damage from their wide receivers. The Cards have a great defense at home but not so much on the road, so in a complete gut call, I’m going to take the Titans in this one. This would all but knock the Cardinals out of the playoff race. Arizona 14, Tennessee 17

NO (-6.5) vs STL - The only question you have to ask yourself is whether Kellen Clemens can keep pace with Drew Brees. I mean, come on. New Orleans 34, St. Louis 17

GB (+6) vs DAL - Aaron Rodgers is still not playing, and even though the Pack are 1-4-1 in the games he’s missed, they are only HALF A GAME BEHIND THE DIVISION LEAD. If the former MVP were playing, they would be running away with the North right now. And if life has taught me one thing, it is to almost never take the ‘Boys to cover at home. How bad can their defense get? However, I still think Dallas comes up with a win that they need to stay in the East race. If you think this division won’t come down to the Week 17 game between Dallas and Philly, you’re wrong. I told you the Cowboys would lose last Monday, by the way. I had it as a lock. Why would you ever think they could get to 8-5? You could see that one coming from a mile away. Green Bay 23, Dallas 27

CIN vs PIT (+2.5) - The Bengals have been on a roll, which means it is time for them to blow a game. They are on the road, against a division rival, playing in hostile Pittsburgh, in a primetime game. This is almost as obvious as the Dallas game last week. And side note about the lateral play from the Steelers last week: Big Ben’s toss was forward, so it didn’t matter whether Antonio Brown stepped out of bounds or not. But I’m glad they let the play continue because it was really exciting. My guess here is that the Steelers, even though they won’t make the playoffs, have a home night game left on the schedule and they will play with an enormous amount of pride. They get the W and take down the Bengals, pretty much ensuring them the 3 seed. Cincinnati 20, Pittsburgh 24

BAL (+6) vs DET - A big time Monday Night showdown between 7-6 teams in their respective conferences fighting to stay alive for the playoffs. One of these teams has what it takes to win the tough games in December; the other repeatedly makes stupid mistakes and shoots itself in the foot. Who do you think I’m taking. I love the Ravens. With Dennis Pitta back, there’s a chance this team could once again go on a late run into the playoffs since their offense will be much improved. This is, once again, a full on UPSET ALERT. A lot of crazy games this week, and I think it ends with a Monday Night upset in Detroit. Watch out for the Ravens, everybody! Baltimore 31, Detroit 24

Lock of the Week: CAR (-10.5), PIT (+2.5), BAL (+6)

Performance of the Week: It’s the resurgence of Julian Edelman and Riley Cooper

Surprise of the Week: OAK over KC, Kobe drops 30 by next week