2013 NFL Week 13 Preview

Week 13 Preview

We’re finally here! It’s the Thanksgiving week preview, and the beginning of the best time of year. The holiday season is starting, and speaking of, I’d like to first wish everybody out there a Happy Thanksgiving and Happy Hanukkah! I hope all of your turkeys and latkes are delicious and that you are able to spend quality time with your families. As for football, Thanksgiving is always a great day for game action, with three interesting matchups gracing our televisions. We are finally out of byes, which means that we are in store for a 16-game week since Week 3. So now I’m going to pick every game as usual, with some extra predictions thrown in there. The holidays are here, time to have some fun.

GB (+7) vs DET - What the hell are the Lions doing, again??? I thought they were due for a big game last week hosting Tampa Bay, but instead they lost outright? They do know that they have a golden opportunity here to take control of their division with Aaron Rodgers out, right? Since the former MVP went down, the Packers have not won a single game (0-3-1), but the Lions keep losing as well, proving once again that they do not have what it takes to be taken seriously. They continue to shoot themselves in the foot, even though they have a world of talent offensively. Matt Flynn is not a good quarterback, but he knows the Green Bay system, and so he is a major improvement over Scott Tolzien. I have to pick the Lions to win this game, because the Packers have shown that they cannot win a game without Rodgers, but this has the makings of a one-possession game. If they lose this game, they are done. Clay Matthews has a sack-fumble, and Megatron will go for 147 yards. Green Bay 23, Detroit 27

OAK (+9) vs DAL - Never ever ever take the Cowboys as huge favorites at home. They rarely cover these type of games, even though they are much more talented than the Raiders. Oakland gets one defensive or special teams touchdown at the beginning of one of the halves, but too much Dez and Witten for the ‘Boys, who will each have 100 yards and a touchdown. Oakland 24, Dallas 31

PIT vs BAL (-2.5) - A perfect way to end Thanksgiving. There’s nothing like sitting on the couch at the end of the night while you’re filled with turkey and stuffing, to watch a classic, hard-hitting rivalry between the Steelers and Ravens--that’s what America is all about. Both these teams, miraculously, are still fighting for a playoff spot, and are TIED FOR THE SIX SEED AT 5-6!!! More on this crazy AFC last wild card spot throughout this piece. Nine of the last 12 matchups between these two teams have been decided by exactly three points, and it’s rare that one team sweeps the other in a season. The Steelers took the first game by three, and now I think the Ravens return the favor. Game-winning touchdown from Flacco to Jacoby Jones late in the fourth. Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 20

TEN vs IND (-4.5) - This line is in no-man’s land. These two teams played a few weeks ago and the Colts won by three, although they were up by ten before Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a late TD for a backdoor cover. Since then, both these teams have been basically playing like crap, making it difficult to go either way. Do you know that the Colts have been down double digits in each of the last four weeks? But they are overall a solid home team including wins over Denver and Seattle, so I feel more comfortable taking them with the points. By the way, how are the Titans in control of the six seed??? What is going on? They are 5-6 and have lost five of their last seven, including one to Jacksonville, at home! There’s one thing keeping me rooting for this sorry team: the chance to get another matchup between the Patriots having to face Bernard Karmell Pollard in a playoff game. For those of you who don’t know what I mean, look up any Bill Simmons column and google “Bernard Pollard + Patriots”. He’s like my favorite player ever. He has single-handedly, over the course of four different seasons and three different teams, injured Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Stevan Ridley. And I’d rather see the Patriots have to face Pollard than to have my Jets get that last spot. Maybe. Tennessee 21, Indianapolis 27

JAC (+7) vs CLE - This is ridiculous. I mean, the Jags have the same amount of wins as the Texans, Falcons, and Vikings, but none of them would be seven point underdogs to the Browns. I know I never want to pick Jacksonville again, but they have won a couple of games recently, and the Browns aren’t able to outscore anybody. I’m officially out on the Browns; I really thought they could have made the playoffs if they had competent quarterback play, but they still couldn’t get that. They will have two first round picks in the coming draft, and they need to find their franchise guy. If they do, and get an average running back, they can still be a force next year--it’s just that dreadful quarterback position. Jacksonville 13, Cleveland 19

TB (+8) vs CAR - Look out--these might be the two hottest teams in football! I love the Panthers this year; before the season started, I picked Carolina to make the playoffs and selected Cam to be my QB for my buy-in fantasy draft. Now they have won seven in a row, but they haven’t been blowing teams out recently. The Bucs are looking much better, having won three straight games; remember as well, in the last game they lost they were up 21-0 on Seattle. They should have won that Week 1 game against the Jets. Those results don’t matter now, but the point is that they are closer to a five win team than a three win team who started out 0-8. Eight points is too many in this one, although I think the Panthers will take care of business and keep the pressure on the Saints atop the NFC South. I’m hoping that Cam Newton can have a big game, and I think he will. The Bucs are good against the run, the Panthers are at home, and therefore Cam will have 262 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, and two total touchdowns with no turnovers (if he has one turnover: three total TDs). Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 27

CHI vs MIN (+1) - The Bears have been one of the most inconsistent teams in a league of inconsistency. Their run defense is atrocious, which is strange to say about a Chicago team, and now they have to travel to a division rival to take on Adrian Peterson. They are another team who has not taken advantage of Aaron Rodgers’ absence from Green Bay, but one bright spot for them: Josh McCown has been pretty good! The Vikings are a bad team, but they are capable of beating almost anybody when Christian Ponder is on his game. This is a rare occurrence, but I actually think he plays well on Sunday. Vikings win outright, and we can bury the Bears’ season. Chicago 20, Minnesota 24

ARI (+3) vs PHI - Two very overlooked, hot teams in this one. The Cardinals, somehow, are 7-4 and fighting for a wild card spot with San Francisco, while the Eagles have surged with Nick Foles and are sitting atop the NFC East. Each of these teams a stricken with variables, but there is one major certainty among them: Arizona’s defense is really good. I think they are good enough to take on Foles and McCoy and win, while Andre Ellington, Larry Fitzgerald, and Michael Floyd will carry the Card’s offense. The shocking Cardinals will go to 8-4, with a real shot to beat out the Niners. Arizona 24, Philadelphia 20

MIA vs NYJ (-2) - Ok...Geno Smith isn’t THAT bad, is he? A bounce back game at home is in order for a fraudulent Dolphins team. The winner of this game will be 6-6 and in prime position to make a run at a wild card berth. However, I don’t think either of these teams should be serious contenders; in fact, out of all the remaining AFC East, teams, I think Buffalo has the best shot to make the postseason. But more on them later. Miami 16, New York 20

NE (-9) vs HOU - So the nine-game-losing-streak Houston Texans were favored by ten over the Jaguars, lost outright, and are only nine-point underdogs to the Patriots? What? I mean, I hate the Patriots with all my heart, but I’m not that stupid. New England 41, Houston 17

ATL vs BUF (-3.5) - The Falcons are terrible. Period. The Bills, meanwhile, aren’t that much better, but play really well at home. I know, I know, this game is in Toronto, but do you really think the Falcons could win on the road ANYWHERE? The Bills sit at 4-7 which many close wins and losses, but are somehow only one game out of the wild card. Sure, they have a bunch of teams ahead of them in the standings, but look at this final schedule: ATL, at TB (winnable), at JAC, MIA, at NE (who might have nothing to play for). Are you telling me that it’s not possible for Buffalo to go at least 4-1 down the stretch and sneak into the playoffs? They probably have to go 5-0, but even that isn’t impossible; I mean, Washington was 3-6 last season with a rookie QB before rallying to get to the playoffs. Don’t sleep on the Bills this year or next year--they’re coming along. They will score early and often, with two touchdowns from Fred Jackson. Atlanta 17, Buffalo 31

STL (+9) vs SF - Where have these Rams been all year? They were 3-6 but have now scored 38 on the Colts and put up 42 on the Bears. Tavon Austin is looking like they dynamo we thought he could be, and rookie Zac Stacy is becoming this year’s Alfred Morris. The Niners are good, but Colin Kaepernick has had a very lackluster season, and nine points is a lot to ask against a Rams team that gets after the QB and is on a roll. I still think the 49ers will win behind the power of Frank Gore--remember, they are still desperate for wins to keep pace with the Panthers and Cardinals. St Louis 20, San Francisco 23

DEN (-5.5) vs KC - This is the final stand for the Chiefs. If they lose this one, it will be three in a row against actual good teams, and they will be all but locked into the five seed. Their main asset has been their defense, which got torched by Philip Rivers last week at home. They have relied heavily on their pass rush, but now Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are banged up, and they couldn’t even touch Peyton Manning a couple of weeks ago. They are unraveling by the minute. Meanwhile, more importantly, what happened to the Broncos last week? Are you kidding me? If you are up 24-0 at halftime on the Patriots, you HAVE TO CLOSE OUT THAT GAME. Peyton Manning should know this better than anyone. I’m starting to have serious doubts about their Super Bowl chances, but not just because they lost one game. The Broncos and Patriots are the class of the AFC, and they are on pace to meet again in the Championship game. The problem, once again, was how bad Peyton looked in cold weather. His throws had no zip, he couldn’t get any downfield throws to Thomas or Decker, and he couldn’t throw into the wind. How is he supposed to win in January and February in Denver/New England/New York for the Super Bowl if he can’t complete passes through the icy air? The Broncos have to figure that out. Denver 34, Kansas City 20

CIN vs SD (-1.5) - The Bengals are still in control of the AFC North, which means they have to lose a game to make everyone nervous about them because that’s their specialty. The Chargers, meanwhile, after blowing a game in Miami, decide to put up 41 on the Chiefs on the road to get everyone on the bandwagon again. They will win this game to get back to 6-6 and make everyone say, “here come the Chargers for a late-season run!”, before promptly losing next week to blow their chance to get into the playoffs. This is obvious. We’ve seen this story before from both teams. Neither are serious threats in the AFC in the big picture. You know who has turned himself into a genuine household name, though? Danny Woodhead. Good for him. He’s good enough to play in this league for years to come, even outside the New England system. He gets into the end zone here. Cincinnati 22, San Diego 26

NYG (-1.5) vs WAS - Talk about laying an egg last week, for both teams. Why are the Shanahans even still in Washington? The demise of this team has been beautiful to watch. As for the Giants...how do you let Tony Romo beat you in the clutch? It was all set up beautifully for a classic comeback win over the incompetent Cowboys. Ugh. I’m taking the Giants and running away. Maybe Hakeem Nicks would like to finally get into the end zone? I know Reuben Randle will! New York 27, Washington 20

NO (+6) vs SEA - What a Monday Night matchup. This game is basically for NFC supremacy. If the Saints win, they take over the number one seed in the conference, and if they can secure it, the road to the Super Bowl goes through New Orleans. If the Seahawks win, they are all but guaranteed the top spot in the NFC, meaning everyone has to travel up to the Pacific Northwest, where Russell Wilson has never lost. A huge story that no one is talking about is how many players for Seattle are being busted for performance-enhancing drugs. Almost the entire defense is cheating, leading to this incredible nickname being born: the Seadderall Seahawks. Bless whoever came up with that gem. I think the Hawks will win at home, but I’m taking the points simply because it’s a lot to ask for someone to outscore a Drew Brees team by a touchdown, no matter the location. I think this has the makings of a classic middle-scoring game with some efficient offense and defensive stands when necessary, kind of like the Pats-Panthers game from a couple of weeks ago. New Orleans 24, Seattle 28

Lock of the Week: ARI (+3), NE (-9)

Performance of the Week: Sticking with the Turkey Day games here with a trio of wide receivers: Megatron, Dez, and Jacoby Jones

Surprise of the Week: Long term prediction: the 6 seed in the AFC will be won by either the Baltimore Ravens or the Buffalo Bills.

There you have it, my picks for Week 13. Once again, I want to wish everyone a wonderful Thanksgiving and Hanukkah for my Jewish brethren (My first night present: the Game of Thrones books! Finally going to read them.), and hope that all of you can spend some great time with your families. Thanksgiving marks the homestretch for the NFL season, and I can’t wait for a thrilling last few weeks. Brace yourselves...WINTER IS COMING.

2013 NFL Week 12 Preview

Week 12 Preview

It’s Week 12, and we’ve finally reached the final weekend of bye weeks. By the end of Monday night, every team will have played 11 games, and then it’s just a race to the finish. Last week gave us some thrilling matchups and moments. The standout penalty of the weekend was the unnecessary roughness called on the 49ers’ Ahmad Brooks for a hit on Drew Brees late in the fourth quarter. The play would have resulted in a fumble recovery by San Francisco who sported a three point lead in the closing minutes. The flag was thrown, the Saints kept the ball, and won the game to improve to 8-2. Instantly there were debates on Sportscenter and other programs about whether the hit (Brooks’ arm hit Brees in the neck region) should have even been a penalty or not, but then the NFL actually fined Brooks after the fact! What?!?!?! What are defensive players supposed to do when not they not only get flagged for any hit to the quarterback, but they have money taken out of their pockets as well? Furthermore, now the Niners are 6-4 and in serious danger of missing the playoffs. That brings us to the Sunday Night game, the much-anticipated matchup between the 9-0 Chiefs and 8-1 Broncos. It was a strange game--it was pretty competitive but very anti-climactic. Peyton Manning and Denver won convincingly, but the Kansas City defense kept them in the game. There were two problems: first, the Chiefs did not sack Peyton Manning a SINGLE TIME all night, meaning that 18 could just sit back and torch defenses like he’s done for years; secondly, there was no extra gear or sense of urgency from the Chiefs on offense. They tried running the ball and throwing their manageable passes, but when you fall behind by ten against Denver, you have to open the playbook a little bit, don’t you? KC held Peyton under 30 points in a home night game, which is impressive in itself, but if they don’t give themselves a chance to match them score for score, what’s the point? They were the same boring Chiefs, and if they play like that next Sunday, they are going to lose to the Broncos again. Finally, we had our game of the week on Monday Night between the Patriots and Panthers. Carolina has finally arrived as top five team in the league with a transformed Cam Newton and Ron Rivera. The Panthers had a big win against the 49ers, but this was a battle on a national stage against proven champions in the Patriots, and it took a late fourth quarter touchdown drive to win the game from Newton, and they delivered. As far as the non-interference call goes, I’ll sum my feelings up this way: I don’t mind the no-call, but I do think that once you throw the flag, the call has to be made. The ref in the back threw the flag which means that the interference did happen; they ruled that Gronk couldn’t have caught the ball and since it was intercepted, no penalty occurred. I semi-agree. I don’t think that Gronkowski, who was the intended receiver, would have been able to catch the ball even if it was not picked off. It would have landed at his feet, and I don’t think he would have been able to get to the ground to scoop it up in time to catch it. However, if the ball lands at his feet, that IS close enough to be catchable, and given the fact that the flag was initially thrown, it’s hard to swallow how the call wasn’t made. But I’m thrilled that the Pats lost, and seeing Brady and Belichick upset is such a lovely sight. It’s hard to not focus on that penalty, but we need to congratulate the Panthers for doing everything we’ve asked them to do and more in this run. They’ve established themselves as heavy threats to the Saints for the NFC South title, and we’ll see how they handle success and attention for the first time. Now on to Week 12’s slate of games.

NO (-8.5) vs ATL - What the hell were the Saints doing on Thursday night? The Falcons are an awful team and they were just blown out of water by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers! Meanwhile, New Orleans routinely put up 30 points in their sleep and were an 8-2 team going against a 2-8 squad. Atlanta’s defense has been dominated all year long, and the mighty Saints could only muster up 17 points in a 17-13 win? I know it was a Thursday game, but they did not look like a championship-caliber team to me. I know it’s only one game, but three of their next four games are two against the Panthers and at Seattle on Monday Night next week, which will in all likelihood determine the top seed in the NFC. The Saints don’t look like that powerhouse right now.

TB vs DET (-8) - I know that the Bucs have been playing much better, winning two in a row, while the Lions blew a very winnable game last week against the Steelers and have been wildly inconsistent. But I think that they haven’t played a really complete, impressive game in a while, and they are coming back home to face an interior win. They get a big win here and get back on track until they probably blow next week’s game because that’s who the Lions are. Tampa Bay 17, Detroit 38

JAC (+10) vs HOU - This is a no-win situation. I have repeatedly said that I would never ever EVER take the Jags again this season, straight up or with the points. But this is just ludicrous. The Texans have lost eight games in a row, including at home to Matt McGloin. Their two wins were the first two games of the year, which were both miracle fourth quarter comebacks when Matt Schaub was actually good. And now they are favored by TEN POINTS over the Jaguars? Double digits? Really? THE JAGS HAVE WON A GAME MORE RECENTLY THAN THE TEXANS. I have to go back on my word and take Jacksonville with the points in this game, even though I know it is going to bite me in the ass when Houston somehow wins by 20. Jacksonville 13, Houston 16

MIN (+5.5) vs GB - The Vikings have no quarterback, Adrian Peterson is hurt, they have no defense...but Scott Tolzien giving almost six points when he’s never even shown the slightest inclination of being good enough to even win a game? I mean you have to take that right? Right? Minnesota 20, Green Bay 23

SD vs KC (-4.5) - I covered the Chiefs earlier...I think their defense gets back to form here. I’m more annoyed with the Chargers. This AFC 6 seed is completely up for grabs, and San Diego could have really made a move by beating the reeling Dolphins last week. How could they be considered serious contenders for the playoffs when they can’t even get that done? It’s a different coach but the same result for the Chargers: they are just frauds, no matter what. I’m done with them. You have to take advantage of that opportunity. San Diego 13, Kansas City 21

CAR (-5) vs MIA - Feels like a typical letdown game, but I’ll take the front seven of the Panthers against the incompetent offensive line of the Dolphins. The Panthers are simply feeling it right now. Carolina 27, Miami 17

PIT vs CLE (-1) - Going down with the ship. Pittsburgh 16, Cleveland 17

CHI (+1) vs STL - Pure gut call of which team is better and who is more likely to put up points. The Bears have played well with McCown at the helm, and I think that Tavon Austin breakout game against the Colts was kind of fluky--for this season, not necessarily going forward. Chicago 28, St. Louis 17

NYJ vs BAL (-3.5) - This half point scares me. But amazingly, both teams are still in this playoff race. How the hell are the Jets still in position to get the six seed in the AFC after getting blown out by Buffalo last week? The Ravens, Browns, Chargers, and Titans all lost, and now even at 4-6, Baltimore still has a chance to get back in the playoffs. By the way, if I’m the top 3-4 teams in the conference, aren’t you pissed off at all these teams like the Jets and Titans for keeping the Ravens and Steelers in this playoff race? If you New England or Cincinnati, would you rather face someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith in a first round matchup, or Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger, two quarterbacks who are both Super Bowl champions? One of these remaining teams are going to go on a late run to get into the playoffs, and odds are it will be Baltimore or Pittsburgh if the other teams let them hang around. I think it starts now with the Ravens beating the Jets here. That extra half a point scares me, but the Ravens seem to win every must-win game they get into, and Geno Smith sucks on the road. New York 13, Baltimore 20

TEN (-1.5) vs OAK - Feel very bad about this pick, but I just think the Titans have more talent. The Raiders have been relatively half-decent this season, but that’s not nearly good enough. Tennessee 24, Oakland 19

IND vs ARI (-3) - A quasi-upset here, as even though the Cardinals are favored by three, it’s safe to say that most people think the Colts are a superior team. The Cardinals are really good at home, and the Colts are due for one of those tough close loss games in a tough environment. It just has that feel. The Colts will be fine, and will most likely win the AFC’s four seed (maybe even three to get out of the DEN/KC first round matchup), but I think they struggle in Arizona and the Cardinals move to 7-4. Look out! Indianapolis 20, Arizona 23

DAL vs NYG (-2.5) - I mean how could this go down any other way, right? It’s only fitting that the 0-6 Giants will become 5-6; the wildly inconsistent Cowboys will fall to 5-6, both one game behind the Eagles. This is going to be a race of mediocrity for the NFC East title all the way down to Week 17, but I know one thing for sure: the Giants have this one on lock, judging from past history. Here’s how bored Big Blue is: now they have to spot their division a six-game lead in order to keep making more impressive comebacks. Dallas 24, New York 27

DEN (-2.5) vs NE - Here we go: my favorite game of the year, every year. Manning vs Brady, Part 14. It should be obvious who I’m picking here; Peyton is my favorite player of all time, and I outwardly despise the Patriots and Tom Brady. A secondary storyline is how Wes Welker is making his return to New England, albeit with a dangerous concussion. I’ll get much more into this game to headline next week’s picks, but I’ll settle with a prediction for now. Denver 38, New England 33. The game will end similar to Monday Night, with Tom Brady getting the Pats to about the 20-30 yard line but not being able to get that final touchdown to win the game. The two key Broncos: Demariyus Thomas and Knowshon Moreno.

SF vs WAS (+6) - I don’t like either of these teams. But right now the 49ers can’t beat anyone by six on the road, much less a struggling but still potentially explosive team in Washington with it’s pride at stake. I’m tempted to call an upset here, but the only thing stopping me is that the guy I’m facing in fantasy has both RGIII and Alfred Morris. So...go Niners! San Francisco 20, Washington 17

Lock of the Week: ARI (-3), NYG (-2.5)

Performance of the Week: D Thomas, Moreno, anybody from DET

Surprise of the Week: After this week, the 6 seed in the AFC will be a 5-6 team.

2013 NFL Week 11 Preview

Week 11 Preview

After weeks and weeks of waiting, we finally have a Sunday (and Monday!) of quality football, especially during the late games. There are three headline games: 49ers at Saints, a 4:25 start; Chiefs at Broncos, the Sunday Night game; and Patriots-Panthers, which is easily the best Monday Night matchup of the season. The playoff picture is starting to round into shape, but there are several spots that are still up for grabs, and the six seed in the AFC is one in particular that could be won or lost by the end of the weekend. Let’s knock these games out.

IND (-3.5) vs TEN - Nothing like the art of scoring a garbage time touchdown for a backdoor cover. The Colts were up ten with two minutes left, but played such soft defense down the stretch that they let Ryan Fitzpatrick torch them for six, and a final score of 30-27. The Colts, though, did get a win to take complete control of the AFC South. As for the Titans...in four days, they lost home games to the Jags and Colts, while losing Jake Locker for the season. That’s how you kill your playoff chances, which is a real shame, because I really wanted a chance for Bernard Karmell Pollard to get a shot at the Patriots in the playoffs.

ATL vs TB (-1) - The Bucs have played much better football lately...and what is happening to the Falcons? How was this team one play away from the Super Bowl last year? They are going to have a top five pick. And after we’ve all ridden off Tampa as trash, if they win this game then they will move ahead of the Falcons in the standings! Atlanta is an embarrassment. Atlanta 23, Tampa Bay 27

NYJ vs BUF (+2.5) - The Bills are good at home. They just are. And the Jets suck on the road. It just seems like one of those “perfect storm” kind of games. The Jets, as of right now, are in control of the 6 seed in the AFC, but that spot is going to come down to the final game of the season. When the Jets are supposed to win, they blow it. This is a gut call, but I think the Bills win the game. But no outcome of this game would surprise me. New York 17, Buffalo 27

DET (-3) vs PIT - Too much offense. The NFC North is the Lions’ division to lose. And while the Steelers have looked much better recently, they haven’t faced an offense like Detroit’s. Detroit 31, Pittsburgh 20

WAS (+4.5) vs PHI - I had the Eagles and the points but I changed my mind right before I started making my picks. Like the AFC’s 6 seed, I don’t think the NFC East winner will be decided until the last game of the year. The Eagles have been red hot, but they still don’t have a win at home, and Washington somehow plays better when they have no expectations whatsoever. But wow has Nick Foles been great. Washington 24, Philadelphia 20

BAL vs CHI (-3) - The Bears playing at home have too much offense, and while I think the Ravens can limit them, I don’t think that Baltimore has enough O to keep pace.  I’m rooting for the Ravens to make a late-season run, but that win they had last week actually made me feel less confident about their chances. If they lose this game, they are done. Can they get it done on the road? Baltimore 16, Chicago 22

CLE (+4.5) vs CIN - This should be obvious if you know me at all. The door is still open for the Browns if they can get their best win of the season and take down the vulnerable Bengals. They are still in the playoff hunt! I’m going down with the ship. UPSET ALERT. Cleveland wins straight up and puts themselves in position to shock the world. I still believe. Cleveland 20, Cincinnati 13

OAK (+10) vs HOU - It doesn’t matter who is starting at QB for the Raiders. The Texans shouldn’t be favored by double digits over anyone. Oakland 20, Houston 27

ARI (-9) vs JAC - Still not picking the Jags ever again, although congratulations to them for finally getting a win last week! 0-16 will not happen this year. But again...I’m never picking them again for the rest of the season. Arizona 27, Jacksonville 14

SD (-3) vs MIA - This Dolphins situation is really out of control. I’m just going to pick the Chargers and leave it at that. And I’ll say that if San Diego can take care of business in this one, they should be your favorites to get the 6 seed. San Diego 26, Miami 16

MIN (+13) vs SEA - Ponder has his moments, and I’m expecting Adrian Peterson to keep the score close enough that they don’t get blown out. The Seahawks shouldn’t worry about this game, though; they should be able to cruise until they 

get the Saints at home on Monday Night in a couple of weeks. That one will be great. Minnesota 20, Seattle 28

SF vs NO (-3.5) - At the Superdome, the Saints score 30. Always. The Niners don’t have the horses to compete, unless Frank Gore goes bananas, or unless the 49ers defense has their best game of the year. Meanwhile, San Francisco better be careful--they are only the 6 seed right now, and there are teams in the NFC that can catch them in the standings if they don’t start winning more often. That loss against the Panthers last week was the second time this season that the 49ers have been pushed around at home (Colts). Bad sign for a team that is supposed to be able to out-physical everyone. San Francisco 24, New Orleans 31

GB (+4) vs NYG - I’m picking the Giants to win, but even against Scott Tolzein, the Giants giving points is always dangerous. The Pack are still in the playoff hunt, but they desperately need Aaron Rodgers back. Green Bay 21, New York 24

KC (+7.5) vs DEN - Here’s my problem with this line. The Broncos have every right to be favored at home, because of the record-setting pace that Peyton Manning is on. But by over a touchdown? The Chiefs are giving up 12 points per game, they lead the NFL in sacks, they have a ruthless defense, and Manning has injuries to his ankles which means that he will be a sitting duck in the pocket. I think that the Chiefs are being treated like Boise State from the late 2000’s. Even though BSU was undefeated, the argument still raged about whether an undefeated mid-major team was deserving to be included in the National Championship Game over a one-loss SEC team. Why would it be so crazy if KC won this game? I think they match up really well: Smith doesn’t turn the ball over; Jamaal Charles can explode against an overrated Broncos defense; they can be physical with the Denver receivers defensively and force turnovers; there is a real chance that they can get a few hits on Manning (remember: the Broncos have multiple starters on the O-line out!) and knock him out of the game. I can’t believe I’m saying this, because I picked the Broncos to win the Super Bowl, but...UPSET ALERT! Chiefs win outright, earn the respect of the country, and move to 10-0. They deserve it. Kansas City 27, Denver 24

NE vs CAR (-1.5) - I’m biased because I hate the Patriots, and I picked the Panthers to make the playoffs this year. But this is the biggest game of Cam Newton’s career, and the biggest game for the Panthers as an organization in five years. Their finally-being-recognized brutal defense will be wired and energized, and we’ve already seen the Pats struggle on the road against ferocious D’s as they did in Cincinnati. The thing that scares me is that it is Brady and Belichick coming off a bye, and everyone is giving too much attention to the Panthers who might not be ready for this national spotlight. The Patriots are virtually unbeatable in November and December, but screw it. I’m in on this new Panthers team. DOWN WITH THE PATRIOTS. New England 24, Carolina 30

Lock of the Week: TB (-1), NO (-3.5)

Performance of the Week: Fred Jackson, Alshon Jeffrey

Surprise of the Week: CHIEFS NATION BABY

2013 NFL Week 10 Preview

Week 10 Preview

Week 9 brought us some great games, crazy outcomes, and finally another successful week for me picking games (nine out of thirteen). The biggest story right now is, of course, this fiasco with the Miami Dolphins, which I will not get into because you’ve probably seen enough of it on TV. Every situation is different, but you’re never supposed to blame the victim, so on one hand I can kind of understand the backing of Richie Incognito by some people, but I don’t like when others bash Jonathan Martin for handling something a certain way. The next biggest story is the injury of Aaron Rodgers, which, in addition to swinging fantasy leagues everywhere, is really vital moving forward in the NFC playoff race. The Bears, Lions, and Packers are all sitting atop the NFC North with a 5-3 record, and since Chicago and Detroit play each other today, one of those teams will be 6-3. Are the Packers good enough with Seneca Wallace at quarterback to keep pace with those teams? Even if they don’t win the North, they can still get that final Wild Card spot (assuming SEA of SF locks up the other), but teams such as the CHI/DET loser, Carolina, and even Arizona are all vying for the six seed as well. This is an immensely talented Green Bay team, but they have been decimated by injuries, and losing number 12 might be the one to really sink them. Week 10 marks the unofficial second half of the season as most teams will be playing in their ninth game, so let’s see who I think will be take another step towards the playoffs.

WAS vs MIN (+2.5) - I can’t believe this: I have a Thursday Night winning streak! When in doubt, take the points with a home underdog, just like Miami last week. Washington was...fortunate to win last week against the Chargers, and Minnesota looked decent in Dallas and really should have won that game, so this was kind of just a momentum, gut-feel pick. Washington just isn’t that good, and they proved it by not even being able to stop Christian Ponder. I know they were 3-6 last year before reeling off seven straight, but I don’t see a miracle repeat for RGIII this time around. The East will be won by either the Cowboys, Eagles (depending on Foles), or dare I say, the Giants (?!?!?!?!), but it will not be won by Washington. Minnesota isn’t going anywhere either, but they did make the playoffs last year as well, and I felt like they were due for a complete game.

JAC vs TEN (-13) - Still never picking the Jaguars again. Jacksonville 10, Tennessee 27

PHI vs GB (+1) - After the Aaron Rodgers injury, this line swung ten points. That shows you how valuable he really is. Now they are even home underdogs to a team that everyone likes again because Nick Foles threw seven touchdowns last week against the Raiders. By the way, I don’t care who it is against, seven TDs is seven TDs. Congratulations Nick Foles. However, this is a classic double overreaction game. People are crazy about Foles as if he’ll throw seven touchdowns again, and are jumping ship on the Pack just because Seneca Wallace is starting in place of Rodgers. Nick Foles will throw under three touchdowns, will have a pick-6, and the Packers are going to win this game. Philadelphia 24, Green Bay 27

BUF vs PIT (-3) - I don’t feel good about this one. The Steelers were absolutely thrashed by the Patriots last Sunday, and while a lot of that is skewed because it was a late-Sunday game in New England, it has to be said that while the game was in the balance they could not stop the run. Now Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller come to town and EJ Manuel returns at quarterback for an improving Bills team. By the way: if Jeff Tuel hits a wide open Steve Johnson in the end zone instead of throwing that awful interception to go up 17-3, I’m 99% sure they beat the undefeated Chiefs last Sunday. I want to take the Bills so badly, but I still think that going to Pittsburgh and leaving with a win is a daunting task, so I’ll go the safe route. Buffalo 20, Pittsburgh 23

OAK (+7.5) vs NYG - I think the Giants will be able to win this game (at least I hope), but how do you take them by over a touchdown against anybody right now? I mean they are still 2-6, right? Oakland 24, New York 27

STL vs IND (-8) - It took the Colts three quarters to figure out how to play without Reggie Wayne, but Andrew Luck was able to figure it out. The Rams are not good, to put it mildly, especially on the road, and while I don’t think this game will be a blowout, I believe the Colts will take care of business and win by exactly ten. St. Louis 14, Indianapolis 24

SEA (-4.5) vs ATL - I know the Seahawks struggle on the road, and it’s only a matter of time before they blow another one, but this Falcons team is not good this year, and the Seahawks will want revenge for that playoff loss last season. Seattle 27, Atlanta 17

CIN vs BAL (-1) - The Ravens are a shell of themselves, but they always win the games they need to win. It’s inexplicable, but they always do. The Bengals aren’t made of that winning mentality, and they will sorely miss Geno Atkins down the road. It will be a close, ugly AFC North kind of game, but the Ravens aren’t going out like punks. Cincinnati 13, Baltimore 16

DET (+1) vs CHI - Jay Cutler will return for this one, and the Bears can really score with Marc Trestman running the offense, but one thing that not many people are talking about is the demise of the Chicago defense. What is going on with them? The winner of this game will be the frontrunner of the NFC North, and I think the Lions are better equipped to win a shootout. Both running backs (Bush and Forte) will break 150 total yards, but Detroit establishes themselves as an NFC contender. Another gut call. Detroit 34, Chicago 27

CAR (+6.5) vs SF - Both teams are red hot, but we haven’t seen the Panthers win a major road game yet. If they can pull this one out, then the NFC better watch out, because then it shows that they can win in any style and in any location. I don’t think they can do it. Not yet. But their defense will keep it close, in an exciting game. Something else to watch: the return (presumably) of Aldon Smith for the Niners and their defensive front. Carolina 17, San Francisco 20

HOU (+3.5) vs ARI - Whoa! I don’t know how the Texans lost last week when they were up by like 18 late in the second half. Their season is over, especially as it was announced today that Arian Foster will have surgery and miss the rest of the season. But some good news did come from that loss: Case Keenum can play! We’ll see how he progresses the rest of the season, but if he keeps playing at a high level, then he might earn himself the starting job heading into next season. I think he gets the job done on the road today, especially because there’s new life in this team. The Cardinals need this game, though, if they want to make a playoff push. Houston 24, Arizona 23

DEN (-7) vs SD - The Chargers should be taken seriously as a threat for final wild card spot in the AFC. But the Broncos are coming off a bye, and if you can take a rested Peyton Manning by a touchdown, you do it. Denver 38, San Diego 27

DAL (+6.5) vs NO - Here’s the thing about the Cowboys. Everyone knows you cannot trust them week to week, but they are able to play up to their competition, and can compete in a shootout, as we saw in the loss against Denver a few weeks ago. Now, the Saints at home, in a primetime game, are a guaranteed 30 points, but I think the Cowboys can hang around. The one stat that got floated out this week that almost made me change my mind, is that Big D has already given up a record FOUR 400 yard passing games this season. Now they have to travel to the Superdome to face Drew Brees. But remember: I’m picking them to win this time, only that they keep it within a touchdown. Dallas 31, New Orleans 35

MIA (-2.5) vs TB - Two questions: How the hell did Tampa Bay get up 21-0 on Seattle last week?, and How the hell did they not win that game after being up 21-0??? We’ll see how the Dolphins come out on national television with all the hooplah surrounding them recently; I think they’ll have pride and want to give people a reason to talk about them that is football-related. Plus, the line is less than a field goal, and there’s a reason the Bucs are winless. Miami 23, Tampa Bay 20

Lock of the Week: BAL (-1)

Performance of the Week: Reggie Bush, Matt Forte...anyone on DET/CHI

Surprise of the Week: The Giants are the only NFC East team that will win this week...look out!

2013 NFL Week 9 Preview

Week 9 Preview

At the end of this week, most of the teams in the NFL will have played eight games, marking the halfway point of the year. I’ll do an evaluation of what we’ve seen so far this season next week, but for today I just want to get into the games. And if you want, check out my NBA season predictions to see who I think will win the NBA Finals and much more. Here are Week 9’s games.

CIN vs MIA (+2.5) - I had the Dolphins winning this game outright, and I was pleased to find that they did not disappoint. It was such an obvious pick. The Bengals had won four straight, and people were starting to gain confidence again. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had lost four straight after a 3-0 start and were reeling. Seems like an easy win for Cincinnati, right? That’s where they get you. There’s a reason I didn’t pick them to make the playoffs before the season started, and even if they do win the North, my reasoning holds true: you can’t count on Andy Dalton to lead a team to the upper echelon, and just when you think they are a quality team, they lay an egg and make sure you remember why you didn’t have confidence in them in the first place. Andy Dalton, fresh off of lighting up the Jets, threw three interceptions, and took a safety in overtime to lose the game. Furthermore, the loss of Geno Atkins is devastating; he is their best defensive player, and the rock right in the middle of the D line. This will come back to haunt them down the road, and while the Bengals are sitting at 6-3, but I don’t think there is any way they can make the AFC Championship Game down the road, and that is the best case scenario. As for Miami, it was a nice win, but they won’t make the playoffs; they are too inconsistent to be a real threat this year.

ATL vs CAR (-7.5) - The Falcons just are not good this year, and they are awful on the road. Meanwhile, the Panthers look like they might have hit a groove; we’ll see if they are serious playoff contenders if they can take care of business at home against an inferior opponent. Atlanta 20, Carolina 28

KC (-3.5) vs BUF - I know crazy things happen in Buffalo, but Jeff Tuel against the Chiefs defense? If he can hang around in this one, then all the credit in the world to him. I’ll believe it when I see it. Kansas City 20, Buffalo 13

MIN (+10.5) vs DAL - Rule 1 of football betting: NEVER take the Cowboys at home as a double digit favorite. Minnesota 16, Dallas 23

TEN (-2.5) vs STL - I don’t know how the Rams lost on Monday Night last week after manhandling the Seahawks, but they couldn’t get it done. You saw the talent, though, that made me like them before the season. I think Tennessee is just better than St. Louis, even on the road. Tennessee 24, St. Louis 20

NO vs NYJ (+5.5) - I can’t go all the way on this Jets team, but I do think that their underrated pass defense (while they got steamrolled by Cincinnati last week, I think that was an outlier type of game) can give Drew Brees and Sean Payton a battle. Rex will want to outduel his brother Rob, and Gang Green is pretty good at home. I have to take the Saints to win the game, but close. Let’s see if Geno Smith has what it takes to take down Drew Brees. New Orleans 27, New York 24

SD (+0.5) vs WAS - Incredibly even game. Right now the Chargers have great balance on offense, and I think they can put pressure on RGIII. But really, anything could happen in this one. Do not bet on this game. San Diego 28, Washington 27

PHI vs OAK (-2.5) - Not only are the Raiders favored in a game, but they actually can get to 4-4 if they win this game! Whoa! And I think they will, as Terrelle Pryor has been pretty dynamic at quarterback. The Eagles just don’t have it this year. Philadelphia 20, Oakland 31

TB vs SEA (-16.5) - Blowout. What is going on with the Buccaneers? Everything has gone wrong this year, and they will have a new head coach very soon. The Seahawks will bounce back after a very ugly win on Monday Night. Tampa Bay 13, Seattle 34

BAL vs CLE (+2.5) - The Browns couldn’t close the deal against the Ravens early on this season, but I think they are good enough, hopefully, with Jason Campbell at quarterback to make it happen at home. I’ve lost a little faith in the Browns after picking them to make the playoffs this year. If they lose this game, it’s over. But could you imagine if team had actual competent quarterback play this year? They could be 5-3 at least right now! I still have faith that the Ravens will make a second half surge, and maybe it starts with a divisional road win. Baltimore 17, Cleveland 20

PIT (+7.5) vs NE - Two traditional powerhouses who have looked very underwhelming this season, even though the Pats are sitting at 6-2. I picked this game as an upset before the season started, and I’m sticking with it. I think that the Steelers can rattle Tom Brady, while pounding the ball with Le’Veon Bell and having Big Ben make his classic third quarter scrambling conversions. This will be a win for the Steelers where they will look like they did five years ago. UPSET ALERT!!!!!! I’m taking Pittsburgh to defeat the Patriots, and take back their pride. Pittsburgh 27, New England 24

IND (-2.5) vs HOU - The Colts have lost Reggie Wayne for the year, but they are still better than the Case Keenum-led Texans. Houston, like Atlanta, is a team that had such high expectations but is watching them crumble. Luck looked phenomenal in his last primetime game, and I think this time he gets it done on the road. Indianapolis 24, Houston 14

CHI (+11.5) vs GB - You think I would learn by now to never pick against the Packers in Lambeau. Especially on a Monday Night. But this is a rivalry game, and I think the Bears will really fight to keep this one close. The Packers still win, but I’ll take the Bears with the points. Chicago 20, Green Bay 27

Lock of the Week: MIN (+10.5), OAK (-2.5)

Performance of the Week: Terrelle Pryor, Ben Roethlisberger

Surprise of the Week: All four AFC East teams will be in one-possession games that get decided in the final minutes. MIA was already one of them.