2013 NFL Week 12 Preview

Week 12 Preview

It’s Week 12, and we’ve finally reached the final weekend of bye weeks. By the end of Monday night, every team will have played 11 games, and then it’s just a race to the finish. Last week gave us some thrilling matchups and moments. The standout penalty of the weekend was the unnecessary roughness called on the 49ers’ Ahmad Brooks for a hit on Drew Brees late in the fourth quarter. The play would have resulted in a fumble recovery by San Francisco who sported a three point lead in the closing minutes. The flag was thrown, the Saints kept the ball, and won the game to improve to 8-2. Instantly there were debates on Sportscenter and other programs about whether the hit (Brooks’ arm hit Brees in the neck region) should have even been a penalty or not, but then the NFL actually fined Brooks after the fact! What?!?!?! What are defensive players supposed to do when not they not only get flagged for any hit to the quarterback, but they have money taken out of their pockets as well? Furthermore, now the Niners are 6-4 and in serious danger of missing the playoffs. That brings us to the Sunday Night game, the much-anticipated matchup between the 9-0 Chiefs and 8-1 Broncos. It was a strange game--it was pretty competitive but very anti-climactic. Peyton Manning and Denver won convincingly, but the Kansas City defense kept them in the game. There were two problems: first, the Chiefs did not sack Peyton Manning a SINGLE TIME all night, meaning that 18 could just sit back and torch defenses like he’s done for years; secondly, there was no extra gear or sense of urgency from the Chiefs on offense. They tried running the ball and throwing their manageable passes, but when you fall behind by ten against Denver, you have to open the playbook a little bit, don’t you? KC held Peyton under 30 points in a home night game, which is impressive in itself, but if they don’t give themselves a chance to match them score for score, what’s the point? They were the same boring Chiefs, and if they play like that next Sunday, they are going to lose to the Broncos again. Finally, we had our game of the week on Monday Night between the Patriots and Panthers. Carolina has finally arrived as top five team in the league with a transformed Cam Newton and Ron Rivera. The Panthers had a big win against the 49ers, but this was a battle on a national stage against proven champions in the Patriots, and it took a late fourth quarter touchdown drive to win the game from Newton, and they delivered. As far as the non-interference call goes, I’ll sum my feelings up this way: I don’t mind the no-call, but I do think that once you throw the flag, the call has to be made. The ref in the back threw the flag which means that the interference did happen; they ruled that Gronk couldn’t have caught the ball and since it was intercepted, no penalty occurred. I semi-agree. I don’t think that Gronkowski, who was the intended receiver, would have been able to catch the ball even if it was not picked off. It would have landed at his feet, and I don’t think he would have been able to get to the ground to scoop it up in time to catch it. However, if the ball lands at his feet, that IS close enough to be catchable, and given the fact that the flag was initially thrown, it’s hard to swallow how the call wasn’t made. But I’m thrilled that the Pats lost, and seeing Brady and Belichick upset is such a lovely sight. It’s hard to not focus on that penalty, but we need to congratulate the Panthers for doing everything we’ve asked them to do and more in this run. They’ve established themselves as heavy threats to the Saints for the NFC South title, and we’ll see how they handle success and attention for the first time. Now on to Week 12’s slate of games.

NO (-8.5) vs ATL - What the hell were the Saints doing on Thursday night? The Falcons are an awful team and they were just blown out of water by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers! Meanwhile, New Orleans routinely put up 30 points in their sleep and were an 8-2 team going against a 2-8 squad. Atlanta’s defense has been dominated all year long, and the mighty Saints could only muster up 17 points in a 17-13 win? I know it was a Thursday game, but they did not look like a championship-caliber team to me. I know it’s only one game, but three of their next four games are two against the Panthers and at Seattle on Monday Night next week, which will in all likelihood determine the top seed in the NFC. The Saints don’t look like that powerhouse right now.

TB vs DET (-8) - I know that the Bucs have been playing much better, winning two in a row, while the Lions blew a very winnable game last week against the Steelers and have been wildly inconsistent. But I think that they haven’t played a really complete, impressive game in a while, and they are coming back home to face an interior win. They get a big win here and get back on track until they probably blow next week’s game because that’s who the Lions are. Tampa Bay 17, Detroit 38

JAC (+10) vs HOU - This is a no-win situation. I have repeatedly said that I would never ever EVER take the Jags again this season, straight up or with the points. But this is just ludicrous. The Texans have lost eight games in a row, including at home to Matt McGloin. Their two wins were the first two games of the year, which were both miracle fourth quarter comebacks when Matt Schaub was actually good. And now they are favored by TEN POINTS over the Jaguars? Double digits? Really? THE JAGS HAVE WON A GAME MORE RECENTLY THAN THE TEXANS. I have to go back on my word and take Jacksonville with the points in this game, even though I know it is going to bite me in the ass when Houston somehow wins by 20. Jacksonville 13, Houston 16

MIN (+5.5) vs GB - The Vikings have no quarterback, Adrian Peterson is hurt, they have no defense...but Scott Tolzien giving almost six points when he’s never even shown the slightest inclination of being good enough to even win a game? I mean you have to take that right? Right? Minnesota 20, Green Bay 23

SD vs KC (-4.5) - I covered the Chiefs earlier...I think their defense gets back to form here. I’m more annoyed with the Chargers. This AFC 6 seed is completely up for grabs, and San Diego could have really made a move by beating the reeling Dolphins last week. How could they be considered serious contenders for the playoffs when they can’t even get that done? It’s a different coach but the same result for the Chargers: they are just frauds, no matter what. I’m done with them. You have to take advantage of that opportunity. San Diego 13, Kansas City 21

CAR (-5) vs MIA - Feels like a typical letdown game, but I’ll take the front seven of the Panthers against the incompetent offensive line of the Dolphins. The Panthers are simply feeling it right now. Carolina 27, Miami 17

PIT vs CLE (-1) - Going down with the ship. Pittsburgh 16, Cleveland 17

CHI (+1) vs STL - Pure gut call of which team is better and who is more likely to put up points. The Bears have played well with McCown at the helm, and I think that Tavon Austin breakout game against the Colts was kind of fluky--for this season, not necessarily going forward. Chicago 28, St. Louis 17

NYJ vs BAL (-3.5) - This half point scares me. But amazingly, both teams are still in this playoff race. How the hell are the Jets still in position to get the six seed in the AFC after getting blown out by Buffalo last week? The Ravens, Browns, Chargers, and Titans all lost, and now even at 4-6, Baltimore still has a chance to get back in the playoffs. By the way, if I’m the top 3-4 teams in the conference, aren’t you pissed off at all these teams like the Jets and Titans for keeping the Ravens and Steelers in this playoff race? If you New England or Cincinnati, would you rather face someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith in a first round matchup, or Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger, two quarterbacks who are both Super Bowl champions? One of these remaining teams are going to go on a late run to get into the playoffs, and odds are it will be Baltimore or Pittsburgh if the other teams let them hang around. I think it starts now with the Ravens beating the Jets here. That extra half a point scares me, but the Ravens seem to win every must-win game they get into, and Geno Smith sucks on the road. New York 13, Baltimore 20

TEN (-1.5) vs OAK - Feel very bad about this pick, but I just think the Titans have more talent. The Raiders have been relatively half-decent this season, but that’s not nearly good enough. Tennessee 24, Oakland 19

IND vs ARI (-3) - A quasi-upset here, as even though the Cardinals are favored by three, it’s safe to say that most people think the Colts are a superior team. The Cardinals are really good at home, and the Colts are due for one of those tough close loss games in a tough environment. It just has that feel. The Colts will be fine, and will most likely win the AFC’s four seed (maybe even three to get out of the DEN/KC first round matchup), but I think they struggle in Arizona and the Cardinals move to 7-4. Look out! Indianapolis 20, Arizona 23

DAL vs NYG (-2.5) - I mean how could this go down any other way, right? It’s only fitting that the 0-6 Giants will become 5-6; the wildly inconsistent Cowboys will fall to 5-6, both one game behind the Eagles. This is going to be a race of mediocrity for the NFC East title all the way down to Week 17, but I know one thing for sure: the Giants have this one on lock, judging from past history. Here’s how bored Big Blue is: now they have to spot their division a six-game lead in order to keep making more impressive comebacks. Dallas 24, New York 27

DEN (-2.5) vs NE - Here we go: my favorite game of the year, every year. Manning vs Brady, Part 14. It should be obvious who I’m picking here; Peyton is my favorite player of all time, and I outwardly despise the Patriots and Tom Brady. A secondary storyline is how Wes Welker is making his return to New England, albeit with a dangerous concussion. I’ll get much more into this game to headline next week’s picks, but I’ll settle with a prediction for now. Denver 38, New England 33. The game will end similar to Monday Night, with Tom Brady getting the Pats to about the 20-30 yard line but not being able to get that final touchdown to win the game. The two key Broncos: Demariyus Thomas and Knowshon Moreno.

SF vs WAS (+6) - I don’t like either of these teams. But right now the 49ers can’t beat anyone by six on the road, much less a struggling but still potentially explosive team in Washington with it’s pride at stake. I’m tempted to call an upset here, but the only thing stopping me is that the guy I’m facing in fantasy has both RGIII and Alfred Morris. So...go Niners! San Francisco 20, Washington 17

Lock of the Week: ARI (-3), NYG (-2.5)

Performance of the Week: D Thomas, Moreno, anybody from DET

Surprise of the Week: After this week, the 6 seed in the AFC will be a 5-6 team.