2013 NFL Week 10 Preview

Week 10 Preview

Week 9 brought us some great games, crazy outcomes, and finally another successful week for me picking games (nine out of thirteen). The biggest story right now is, of course, this fiasco with the Miami Dolphins, which I will not get into because you’ve probably seen enough of it on TV. Every situation is different, but you’re never supposed to blame the victim, so on one hand I can kind of understand the backing of Richie Incognito by some people, but I don’t like when others bash Jonathan Martin for handling something a certain way. The next biggest story is the injury of Aaron Rodgers, which, in addition to swinging fantasy leagues everywhere, is really vital moving forward in the NFC playoff race. The Bears, Lions, and Packers are all sitting atop the NFC North with a 5-3 record, and since Chicago and Detroit play each other today, one of those teams will be 6-3. Are the Packers good enough with Seneca Wallace at quarterback to keep pace with those teams? Even if they don’t win the North, they can still get that final Wild Card spot (assuming SEA of SF locks up the other), but teams such as the CHI/DET loser, Carolina, and even Arizona are all vying for the six seed as well. This is an immensely talented Green Bay team, but they have been decimated by injuries, and losing number 12 might be the one to really sink them. Week 10 marks the unofficial second half of the season as most teams will be playing in their ninth game, so let’s see who I think will be take another step towards the playoffs.

WAS vs MIN (+2.5) - I can’t believe this: I have a Thursday Night winning streak! When in doubt, take the points with a home underdog, just like Miami last week. Washington was...fortunate to win last week against the Chargers, and Minnesota looked decent in Dallas and really should have won that game, so this was kind of just a momentum, gut-feel pick. Washington just isn’t that good, and they proved it by not even being able to stop Christian Ponder. I know they were 3-6 last year before reeling off seven straight, but I don’t see a miracle repeat for RGIII this time around. The East will be won by either the Cowboys, Eagles (depending on Foles), or dare I say, the Giants (?!?!?!?!), but it will not be won by Washington. Minnesota isn’t going anywhere either, but they did make the playoffs last year as well, and I felt like they were due for a complete game.

JAC vs TEN (-13) - Still never picking the Jaguars again. Jacksonville 10, Tennessee 27

PHI vs GB (+1) - After the Aaron Rodgers injury, this line swung ten points. That shows you how valuable he really is. Now they are even home underdogs to a team that everyone likes again because Nick Foles threw seven touchdowns last week against the Raiders. By the way, I don’t care who it is against, seven TDs is seven TDs. Congratulations Nick Foles. However, this is a classic double overreaction game. People are crazy about Foles as if he’ll throw seven touchdowns again, and are jumping ship on the Pack just because Seneca Wallace is starting in place of Rodgers. Nick Foles will throw under three touchdowns, will have a pick-6, and the Packers are going to win this game. Philadelphia 24, Green Bay 27

BUF vs PIT (-3) - I don’t feel good about this one. The Steelers were absolutely thrashed by the Patriots last Sunday, and while a lot of that is skewed because it was a late-Sunday game in New England, it has to be said that while the game was in the balance they could not stop the run. Now Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller come to town and EJ Manuel returns at quarterback for an improving Bills team. By the way: if Jeff Tuel hits a wide open Steve Johnson in the end zone instead of throwing that awful interception to go up 17-3, I’m 99% sure they beat the undefeated Chiefs last Sunday. I want to take the Bills so badly, but I still think that going to Pittsburgh and leaving with a win is a daunting task, so I’ll go the safe route. Buffalo 20, Pittsburgh 23

OAK (+7.5) vs NYG - I think the Giants will be able to win this game (at least I hope), but how do you take them by over a touchdown against anybody right now? I mean they are still 2-6, right? Oakland 24, New York 27

STL vs IND (-8) - It took the Colts three quarters to figure out how to play without Reggie Wayne, but Andrew Luck was able to figure it out. The Rams are not good, to put it mildly, especially on the road, and while I don’t think this game will be a blowout, I believe the Colts will take care of business and win by exactly ten. St. Louis 14, Indianapolis 24

SEA (-4.5) vs ATL - I know the Seahawks struggle on the road, and it’s only a matter of time before they blow another one, but this Falcons team is not good this year, and the Seahawks will want revenge for that playoff loss last season. Seattle 27, Atlanta 17

CIN vs BAL (-1) - The Ravens are a shell of themselves, but they always win the games they need to win. It’s inexplicable, but they always do. The Bengals aren’t made of that winning mentality, and they will sorely miss Geno Atkins down the road. It will be a close, ugly AFC North kind of game, but the Ravens aren’t going out like punks. Cincinnati 13, Baltimore 16

DET (+1) vs CHI - Jay Cutler will return for this one, and the Bears can really score with Marc Trestman running the offense, but one thing that not many people are talking about is the demise of the Chicago defense. What is going on with them? The winner of this game will be the frontrunner of the NFC North, and I think the Lions are better equipped to win a shootout. Both running backs (Bush and Forte) will break 150 total yards, but Detroit establishes themselves as an NFC contender. Another gut call. Detroit 34, Chicago 27

CAR (+6.5) vs SF - Both teams are red hot, but we haven’t seen the Panthers win a major road game yet. If they can pull this one out, then the NFC better watch out, because then it shows that they can win in any style and in any location. I don’t think they can do it. Not yet. But their defense will keep it close, in an exciting game. Something else to watch: the return (presumably) of Aldon Smith for the Niners and their defensive front. Carolina 17, San Francisco 20

HOU (+3.5) vs ARI - Whoa! I don’t know how the Texans lost last week when they were up by like 18 late in the second half. Their season is over, especially as it was announced today that Arian Foster will have surgery and miss the rest of the season. But some good news did come from that loss: Case Keenum can play! We’ll see how he progresses the rest of the season, but if he keeps playing at a high level, then he might earn himself the starting job heading into next season. I think he gets the job done on the road today, especially because there’s new life in this team. The Cardinals need this game, though, if they want to make a playoff push. Houston 24, Arizona 23

DEN (-7) vs SD - The Chargers should be taken seriously as a threat for final wild card spot in the AFC. But the Broncos are coming off a bye, and if you can take a rested Peyton Manning by a touchdown, you do it. Denver 38, San Diego 27

DAL (+6.5) vs NO - Here’s the thing about the Cowboys. Everyone knows you cannot trust them week to week, but they are able to play up to their competition, and can compete in a shootout, as we saw in the loss against Denver a few weeks ago. Now, the Saints at home, in a primetime game, are a guaranteed 30 points, but I think the Cowboys can hang around. The one stat that got floated out this week that almost made me change my mind, is that Big D has already given up a record FOUR 400 yard passing games this season. Now they have to travel to the Superdome to face Drew Brees. But remember: I’m picking them to win this time, only that they keep it within a touchdown. Dallas 31, New Orleans 35

MIA (-2.5) vs TB - Two questions: How the hell did Tampa Bay get up 21-0 on Seattle last week?, and How the hell did they not win that game after being up 21-0??? We’ll see how the Dolphins come out on national television with all the hooplah surrounding them recently; I think they’ll have pride and want to give people a reason to talk about them that is football-related. Plus, the line is less than a field goal, and there’s a reason the Bucs are winless. Miami 23, Tampa Bay 20

Lock of the Week: BAL (-1)

Performance of the Week: Reggie Bush, Matt Forte...anyone on DET/CHI

Surprise of the Week: The Giants are the only NFC East team that will win this week...look out!