2013 NFL Week 3 Preview

Week 3 Preview

Many years in the future when I am an old man and reevaluating my life, I will hang my head in shape when I remember that I picked the Cleveland Browns to make the playoffs this season. All the signs were there: new coaching regime, better talent, weak schedule, weak division and conference...all the while, I forgot one key axiom of life: God hates Cleveland. The Browns have started 0-2 this year, but it’s not like they got killed or anything; in both games (vs MIA, 2-0 and at BAL, Super Bowl Champs), they had a halftime lead! This includes shutting out the Ravens in the first half of their home opener this past Sunday. Unfortunately, the defense couldn’t lock down their opponents forever, and the offense was just dismal. Brandon Weeden was the one thing that he couldn’t be if this team wanted to be successful: Brandon Weeden. The suspension of Josh Gordon, their top wide out, really hurt this team, and I thought that with him returning this week at Minnesota, Cleveland would have a chance for their first win by putting up some actual points on the board. However, Brandon Weeden is hurt and the Browns are turning to Brian Hoyer, who, if my memory serves me right, was an OK QB at Michigan State. They still had a chance to salvage the season (remember, the first place teams in the AFC North are only 1-1), until the breaking news came out yesterday: the Cleveland Browns have traded RB Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2014 first round pick. WHAT??!?!?!1??//1? This is essentially giving up on the season two games in. With a solid defense and two close losses. Cleveland traded up to draft Richardson only a year ago! How are you going to trade him now, just 18 games into his professional career, with his level of talent and potential? They have completely sold out on the 2o13 campaign, and left suckers like me (and their 24 fans) who picked them as a playoff team out to dry. What a disaster of a prediction that was for me this year. Sorry about that, everyone. I’m really disappointed in you, Cleveland. Now, this trade might be beneficial in the long run, as they shed his salary and now have multiple first rounders next year, the first of which needs to be used on a new franchise quarterback. In the meantime, this will be another terrible year for the Browns and their fans, as they have lost what little firepower they had on offense. They are looking like they will have a top three pick in the 2014 draft.

As far as Week 2 is concerned, I actually had a really great week with my picks, nailing 10 out of 16 games with the spread. Two other games could have easily swung in my favor (Carolina, Kansas City), which would have really made me look good, but I’m happy about the bounce back. Since I spent so much time talking about the Browns, I’ll give some quick thoughts on all the other teams while I pick the games for Week 3.

KC vs PHI (-3.5) - The Chiefs notched an impressive win last week against Dallas to improve to 2-0. Meanwhile, the Eagles were shocked at home by the Chargers 33-30 to receive their first loss, and proving to the world that Chip Kelly’s offense will not be able to outscore everyone. Andy Reid makes his return to Philly with the Chiefs and their very stout defense, but I think that the Eagles will rebound and get a nice win over a quality opponent at home on a short week. Not as high-scoring as you might think though, as these dreaded Thursday games are always sloppy. Kansas City 17, Philadelphia 24

SD vs TEN (-3) - Not sure where to go with this one, because I thought both of these teams would stink, but they have pleasantly surprised over the first two weeks. In fact, each of them should be 2-0, except that they both blew late fourth quarter leads to the lucky Houston Texans! The Titans are favored by three because they are at home, and I think that they will win by exactly that, aided by at least one defensive touchdown. By the way: Holy crap, Philip Rivers! He must have taken a lot of Secret Stuff this offseason. Shout outs to whoever understands that reference. San Diego 21, Tennessee 24

CLE (+6.5) vs MIN - I know. I’m going down with the ship, though. Maybe there’s some Brian Hoyer magic! Look, the Vikings are at home and should win this game. I’m still grabbing the points, though. Minnesota is 0-2 as well, and even though the Browns stink, their defense is legit. Christian Ponder will not break 200 yards passing and will have at least two turnovers, but Adrian Peterson is by far the best player in this game, and he will do enough to secure a Vikings victory. Cleveland 13, Minnesota 16

TB (+7) vs NE - Here’s the thing about these two teams. The Bucs are 0-2, and have a world of turmoil internally, but they really should be 2-0. They blew the Jets game Week 1 because of that idiotic penalty to set up the field goal. Last week, they held Drew Brees and the Saints to 13 points, were up 14-13 in the fourth, and missed the field goal that would have put them up 17-13. Instead, Brees gets the ball back with one minute left and no timeouts, and three plays later, New Orleans is lining up and making the game winning field goal to come out on top, 16-14. This is two games in a row that the Bucs have blown in the final seconds. It’s amazing. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 2-0, but they should be 0-2! They have been outplayed in both games this year, which were against the Bills and the Jets, two teams they have perennially used as doormats. The loss of their offensive stars has really hurt, and the only reason they beat the Jets last week is because Geno Smith threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter alone, when they were only down by three the whole time. Now they face Tampa Bay at home, and it doesn’t take a genius to predict what’s going to happen here: it’s going to be close throughout, and at the end of the game the Bucs are going to make a boneheaded play and the Pats are going to escape. Tampa Bay 20, New England 23

HOU vs BAL (+2.5) - This is a battle of two second-tier AFC powers. Houston spoiled their opportunity to take the conference last year, ruining an 11-1 start to fall out of a bye, and having their season end predictably in a second round loss to New England. Arian Foster is not himself, nor has the defense been an a-plus unit. The Texans are 2-0, but should be 0-2 barring two miracle comebacks to beat the terrors that are San Diego and Tennessee. After this Trent Richardson trade, I believe that the Colts are now the top team in the AFC South. The Ravens, meanwhile, got blown out by Denver and edged out Cleveland in their low-scoring home opener. Neither team has been impressive so far this year. The X-factor for me in this game? Bernard Pierce. Houston 20, Baltimore 24

STL vs DAL (-4.5) - I have no idea where to go with this pick. The Rams are competitive, but they have fallen behind big in their first two games. They also have given up a lot of yards to opposing wide receivers this year, which has Dez Bryant rubbing his hands together. It’s time for Dallas to play a complete game. St. Louis 13, Dallas 27

ARI vs NO (-7.5) - The Saints, like the Texans, are another team that could easily be 0-2. They escaped their opener against Atlanta after the Falcons had first and goal from the seven and couldn’t punch it in. Last week, Tampa Bay had them dead to rights until they predictably choked again in the final minute, giving the Saints a two-point victory. But I think they win this one more convincingly, and a banged up Larry Fitzgerald doesn’t help Arizona’s cause. The Cardinals have a good enough D to stay in this one, but I think the Saints take care of business. Arizona 20, New Orleans 30

DET (+2) vs WAS - The Redskins cannot stop anyone in the first half. Now, enter Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and (maybe) Reggie Bush. Maybe Washington has one of those desperation can’t-be-0-and-3 games, but I’ll believe in this defense when I see them stop anyone. I’ll take the Lions straight up, even on the road. Detroit 31, Washington 20

GB (-3) vs CIN - Before the season, I picked the Bengals to win this game with their ferocious defensive line. Now I’m going back on that, just because the Packers have looked unstoppable on offense. If the line was around four or five, I would take Cincy and the points, but I think that the Packers are clicking, and I’ll take Aaron Rodgers by a field goal. Close game, and Rodgers will be punished, but he’ll make enough plays outside the pocket to hold on. Green Bay 24, Cincinnati 21

NYG (PK) vs CAR - This is a pick’em game (PK), meaning that the Giants are a little bit favored because the Panthers don’t have the standard couple of points for being at home. I picked Carolina to make the playoffs this season, and even though it’s only two games in, I’m out on them. After two such games this season, we’re now at 2-14 for the Panthers in the Cam-Ron Rivera era. They should have beat Seattle, and they should have beat Buffalo. At some point, you have to make a change. Both of these teams are 0-2, but only one of them has the kick in them to bounce back when times get rough, and the Giants are going to come into Carolina and burn in to the ground. 400 yards for Eli and a couple of touchdowns to go with it, while the Panthers will be 0-3 and hopefully fire Ron Rivera during their Week 4 bye. Then maybe they will actually open the playbook for their best offensive weapon and let Cam make plays! Go with the Giants here. New York 34, Carolina 21

ATL vs MIA (-2) - The entire NFC South has been really underwhelming this year. The Falcons have not looked impressive at all, and now are dealing with an injured Steven Jackson, banged up wide outs, and some major injuries on defense. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have beaten the two teams I thought would secure both Wild Card spots, and have done so on the road. These are two teams heading in different directions right now. Atlanta 20, Miami 23

IND (+10.5) vs SF - The Niners will be pissed off after their no-show beat down up in Seattle last weekend. Their front seven is going to terrorize the Indy offensive line, which is already below par. But the Colts are double digit underdogs? They were a playoff team last year, and now they have Trent Richardson! Besides, even if Indy falls behind that much, Andrew Luck has the ability to chuck the ball around and score some garbage time touchdowns. Give me the points here. Indianapolis 24, San Francisco 30

JAC vs SEA (-20) - Yeah. 20 points. And you know what? I’m taking them. Because it’s hysterical. But honestly, how are the Jaguars supposed to score? Did you hear that the people of Seattle set a world record for loudest crowd noise generated at a sporting event, ever? This is the worst team in the league, going to the craziest stadium in the league, to take on the best of the best. The NFC teams better not let Seattle get home field for the playoffs, because it is a hellhole up there for opposing teams. Jacksonville 6, Seattle 31

BUF (+2.5) vs NYJ - I like EJ Manuel a hell of a lot more than Geno Smith. Did you see him master that game-winning touchdown drive against Carolina like a pro? He is cool, calm, and collected, and the Jets...aren’t. Buffalo 20, New York 16

CHI (-2.5) vs PIT - Maybe if the Steelers were healthy, they could take on the physical Bears. But they can’t in their current state. It’s going to be a long year in the Steel City. The Bears are off to a nice start, but remember, they were 7-1 last year and didn’t even make the playoffs. Don’t buy their stock yet. Chicago 23, Pittsburgh 10

OAK vs DEN (-16) - Another 40 points up for Denver. Oakland 13, Denver 41

Lock of the Week: I was dead on in Week 2...this time I’m saying NYG (PK)

Performance of the Week: All in on Eli Manning, and I like Bernard Pierce

Surprise of the Week: Even though they are favored, I think the Dolphins will establish themselves by beating a true contender (ATL) to get to 3-0. I think that counts as a surprise.