2013 NFL Preview

2013 NFL Preview

Welcome, readers, and get ready, once again, for another exciting season of football. We are just over a month away from kickoff, which means that it’s about time for me to start rolling out my predictions for the year. This consists of analysis of every team, including the predicted win-loss record, breakout stars or major disappointments, bold predictions, and of course, a Super Bowl champion at the end. Whether you trust my thoughts or not, you have to give me credit for picking the Baltimore Ravens to hoist the Lombardy Trophy from before the season. This year, I’m going for a winning streak. This preview will not go into much detail, as it is merely an introduction to the season, with some of my initial thoughts for what lies ahead. It is here that I will mention teams and players I am particularly optimistic about, applicable to real life as well as fantasy. Also keep in mind that over the course of the next few weeks, changes will occur (mainly due to injury), so not everything will be exact until my final prediction column that I will put out right before the start of the season. For example, already today, Jeremy Maclin seems to have tore his ACL, and Dennis Pitta suffered a dislocated hip, which slightly changes my opinions of the Eagles and Ravens. This post is supposed to be light and fun, and I’ll save the in-depth stuff for the team-by-team previews, which will begin hopefully tomorrow, starting with the Buffalo Bills (I will be going in alphabetical order by division, starting with the AFC East). I’ll get started without any further interruption. Happy Football, everybody.

Let me begin with the teams that I am bullish on, because it is an important subject. For almost every season in recent memory, there have been at least FIVE new teams in the playoffs (combined in both conferences), meaning that there is always some shaking up. Even further, statistics show that about one out of every four teams who finish 6-10 will make the playoffs next season. Bill Barnwell on Grantland wrote an interesting column about this trend. Last year, there were ten teams that fit the bill: Jets, Bills, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders, Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, and Cardinals. At least one of these teams will make the postseason in 2013 (I’ll get to my pick soon; I guarantee it will surprise you). Here are some quick hits on the teams I like this year (note: this doesn’t mean I automatically have them in the playoffs).

• Miami: They’ve become so underrated that they are now overrated, but you cannot deny that they have made massive strides this offseason. We’ll see how quickly they can put the pieces together to challenge the Patriots in the AFC East.
• Kansas City: Remember, this team had multiple Pro Bowlers, and now bring in a veteran coach (Reid), and a competent quarterback (Smith). In the weakest division in an overall weak conference, they could sneak into a Wild Card spot.
• Saint Louis: Vastly underrated defense plus young, fast weapons on offense and a good coach in Jeff Fisher. People point to their brutal division as a downside...the Rams were 4-1-1 vs the NFC West last year, beating the Seahawks once and going 1-0-1 against the Super Bowl runner-up 49ers.
• Tampa Bay: I love this team. Doug Martin took the NFL by storm last year but was obviously overshadowed by Adrian Peterson. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams make a solid WR duo, and their two stud guards are healthy this year. They had the top run defense last year and they added Darrelle Revis and Goldson to sure up the secondary. Their success rests on the arm of Josh Freeman, who is playing for a new contract. They are still under the radar, and I think they will be great.
• Cleveland: This is my 6-10 or worse team that I mentioned before would make the playoffs. I know, I am a bit crazy. This would obviously be a miracle if it came true. But hear me out. Trent Richardson is the “beast mode” of the AFC. Josh Gordon is a legitimate downfield threat, and Davone Bess is pretty good in the slot. The defense will be much improved, especially upfront with the additions of Paul Kruger and rookie Mingo. I love the new coaching regime; Rob Chudzinski once took Derek Anderson to the Pro Bowl, Norv Turner (even though he was a bone-headed head coach) is an offensive guru who can succeed back as an OC, and their new defense coordinator is Ray Horton, who turned the Arizona defense into a formidable unit. The AFC is weak, and 9-7 can get a wild card (or maybe even win that division). This has a real chance of happening unless Brandon Weeden is still Brandon Weeden. Pittsburgh is without Wallace and Miller and has an agin defense; Cincinnati struggles on offense outside of AJ Green and can be stopped; The Ravens just overhauled their defense and lost Dennis Pitta for the year. But more on this in the Cleveland team preview, which will be a good read. Just remember: watch out for the Browns! I’m a believer.
• Wild Card: Philadelphia Eagles. This does not mean I think they will necessarily win a wild card spot, it means that they are literally a wild card. I have no idea what to make of them. Chip Kelly is bringing his chaotic speed offense that will basically be the NFL version of the Steve Nash-led Phoenix Suns. They could easily go 12-4 and just as quickly finish 4-12. I originally pegged them for a 9-7 season, but I think the loss of Maclin costs them at least a game. Right now, I don’t see them making the playoffs, but I wanted to mention them because if nothing else, they will be exciting to watch, and they will be a popular pick to be that bad team to turn around and make the postseason right away.

Okay, now for some quicker hits on some of the teams I don’t really care for this year, even if it is a gut instinct. Sell their stock.

• New York Jets: Self-explanatory. They suck.
• Cincinnati: This team has a realistic chance to win the AFC North this year. However, I’m sick of them barely getting into the playoffs with an atrocious offense and giving us a hideous game with Houston where they lose immediately. Plus, I like Cleveland, so someone in the North has to fall back. Again, though, because I am objective, I have to at least point out that they could also be very good with the drafting of Bernard and Eifert, along with the return of Sanu to make the offense respectable. Their defense is already fantastic.
• Washington: I don’t hate this team. I support RGIII and I hope he returns good as new from his ACL injury. However, I don’t think he’ll have the same impact (even if he plays all 16 games), nor will Alfred Morris. Their defense is average, although a healthy Brian Orakpo is a boost. This team will not be bad, but the NFC East is perennially a gauntlet, and the Redskins were 3-6 before winning their last seven games to win the division by a hair. I think that 2014 will be their year.
• New Orleans: I had originally thought that the Saints would come out this year with Sean Payton back and explode with a vengeance. After a couple of months of thought, I’ve come down to earth. I think that this team is still a one-man show with Brees, with a suspect running game and a putrid defense. Couple that with the expected (by me) rise of the Bucs, and I’m looking at 8-8 with no playoffs.
• San Francisco: Obligatory, because I’ve been anti-Kaepernick from the beginning, and I’m committed to that stance. The loss of Crabtree is a big blow, but Anquan Boldin will bring even more toughness to the offense. Are they a playoff team? Yes. I just think that Seattle will win this division, and the 49ers stumble. Just a bit.

Now that I’ve been through the teams, it’s time for my Love-Hate for the players. Remember, if you agree or disagree with anything, feel free to leave a comment, I’d love to know what people think. So for this section, I guess I’ll run through by positions for my sleepers and busts. For all the fantasy fanatics, stay with me. It’s about to go down. The people I name do not reflect my final rankings, only whether I think they are over- or undervalued, based on ESPN rankings.

Quarterbacks:

• F YOU KAEPERNICK.
• Major fan of Russell Wilson. He had 26 TDs last year and Seattle threw the ball the fewest times in the league. He’ll have an increased role running as well.
• Bounce back year for Stafford, he’ll have 30+ TDs.
• I also like Andrew Luck, and Freeman as a deep sleeper (all in on the Bucs).
• As for Tom Brady...I think he finishes around the #7 ranked QB. He’ll get his yards because they run so many freaking plays, but his receiving corps are just decimated. No Welker, no Hernandez, banged-up Gronk, fragile Amendola...where are his TDs going to come? Even if you spot Gronk 10, in order for Brady to reach 30 touchdowns, he’d have to spread 20 between Edelman, Vareen, rookie Dobson...Brady slips a little bit, but stays in the top ten, because even though I hate him, he’s still Tom Brady. Although, having said that, I’m expecting a monster year from...

Running Backs:

• Stevan Ridley: the Pats will run plays, and their passing numbers are bound to decline a little bit. Without Welker and Hernandez, and with Gronk dinged up, I expect Ridley to fill a lot of the void by running the ball, especially near the goal line. He is my early bold prediction pick to lead the NFL in rushing TDs, to go along with 1200-1300 yards. Note: fantasy-wise, Vareen is a nice handcuff.
• Jamaal Charles will lead the NFL in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage.
• Either David Wilson or Lamar Miller (my boy out of the U) will break out.
• Down on Alfred Morris, MJD, Gore, and somewhat Steven Jackson. I think Jax will be better on the Falcons, but not worth a second round fantasy pick. Also a little down on Ray Rice, who I think will finish outside the top 10, but will be in the teens.
• NEVER EVER PICK RYAN MATHEWS, DEMARCO MURRAY, MCFADDEN, ANY PANTHERS RB, OR ANY SAINTS RB. If they beat you, they beat you. Not worth a top pick to have them injured, except maybe McFadden if he’s your 3rd RB.
• As far as rookies go, I really like Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh as a sleeper to get 10 TDs. Lacy in Green Bay and Montee Ball in Denver are shaky picks, because although they could produce, it’s hard to trust a rookie runner in a prolific passing offense. I also think Giovani Bernard will be the Bengals’ starter by the end of the year, if that means anything to you.
• Reggie Bush equals PPR god. Pick him over Sproles in that scenario.
• The Browns (Bryce and Andre) are good handcuffs, as are Bernard Pierce and Jacquizz Rodgers in the later rounds.

Wide Receivers

• First of all, for anyone who listened to me last year, you’re welcome for Brandon Marshall. If you don’t know what I mean, go back and read my Chicago team preview from 2012.
• Regarding this year, there are, to me, six elite wide outs: Megatron, AJ Green, Dez, Marshall, Julio Jones, and the soon-to-be-reborn Larry Fitzgerald. The three that I’m crazy about this year are Jones (the breakout star), Fitz (great value in the second crop of receivers), and Dez Bryant, who I think will be number one overall. You heard me. I think he’s in for a year with splits like 104/1,512/15 or something equally ridiculous.
• I like all three Denver guys but it’s hard to say how much production will be inadvertently cut off from each guy. I like Thomas the best to duplicate his numbers.
• Sleeper picks (really excited for this): Torrey Smith, Tavon Austin, TY Hilton, Mike Williams, Denarius Moore, Josh Gordon, and maybe Justin Blackmon, who’s breakout  year will probably be 2014 when he’s in his third season and not suspended four games. At least two of these guys will have either 1,200 or 10 TDs. Solid mid-to-late round picks in your fantasy draft as 4th and 5th receivers.
• Guys I’m down on: Andre Johnson, Wallace, Steve Smith, Garcon, Miles Austin, Roddy (not top 10), Vincent Jackson (slightly more equal numbers to Mike Williams).

Tight Ends

• This position is a crap shoot. Either take Jimmy Graham or wait like hell. A few names late to keep in mind: Greg Olsen, Brandon Myers, Jared Cook, Dwayne Allen.

Kickers

• Do not pick one before the last round. A few names I like, based on nothing whatsoever: Matt Bryant, Justin Tucker, Dan Bailey, Sebastian Janikowski’s name.

D/ST

• I usually don’t even factor in the special teams (unless it’s the Bears) part because those scores are so rare. This is also a confusing category, because it doesn’t usually award the best real life defenses. Points are determined based on score given up, sacks, and turnovers, so yardage doesn’t really matter. That’s how bend but don’t break defenses can succeed, like the Patriots last year, who gave up a ton of yards but not to many points, while forcing a bunch of turnovers. You would assume that Seattle (another one of my great predictions from last year) and San Francisco would finish one and two in some order, but there’s a 95% chance that it won’t happen that way. Instead of trying to rank this position, I’ll just give you two teams that I think will be great bargains, even if you have to pick them up off the waiver wire.
• St. Louis has a very good defense that gets overshadowed by the Seahawks and the 49ers. They have two sack artists in Chris Long and Robert Quinn. James Laurinitis is a tank up the middle, and the Rams just also drafted Alec Ogletree. Their secondary is full of ball hawks as well, as rookie Janoris Jenkins proved last year. They are young and fast, and will be a top 10 D/ST.
• The other unit I really like is Cleveland. Browns Nation, let me hear you! Like I said, Ray Horton is the new coordinator and he will attack with his 3-4 scheme. The pass rush will be improved with the additions of Kruger and Mingo, and D’Qwell Jackson should have a big year. Horton’s MLB in Arizona was Daryl Washington, who not only got plenty of tackles, but had I believe eight or nine sacks as well. Joe Haden is a great corner to lead the secondary. In a division and conference that doesn’t have many offensive powerhouses, this unit can thrive, keeping teams out of the end zone while racking up sacks, picks, and fumbles. I’m not saying they will be number one, but the Cleveland D/ST will be in the top 10, and maybe even the top 5.

That’s all I’ve got for you right now, but there will be much, much more to come as kickoff gets nearer. These predictions will probably change a little bit, but for right now, I have a lot of confidence in my beliefs. Before I finish, I’ll give you my temporary six playoff teams from each conference in seed order. This will most likely be the part of my predictions that change the most of the next few weeks, but this is a good indication on where my head is at right now. Feel free to pick it apart.

AFC: Denver, Baltimore (before Pitta injury), Houston, New England, Cleveland, Miami.

NFC: Seattle, TB/GB, GB/TB, New York Giants, San Francisco, Atlanta.

If those predictions hold true, I will have four new teams entering the playoffs (CLE, MIA, NYG, TB), which is still one off the magic number of five, so there could be another surprise team in the mix at some point. The thing that should jump off the page at you (besides the already covered lunacy of the Browns in the playoffs) is that NFC South race. Right now I have Tampa Bay ahead of Atlanta, although I like both teams a lot. I think this race will be exciting all year long, and both the Bucs and Falcons should still be playing come January. As far as the Super Bowl (which is being awesomely held in New York), I really have no clue yet who my winner will be. But since I’m a man of the people, I’ll sign off with this initial pick: Seattle over Denver. Two obvious flaws with this: the unknown health abomination that is Percy Harvin, and the fact that I will never pick two number one seeds to make the Super Bowl, because what fun is that? But there you go. Team previews coming soon. Enjoy, and may your team remain healthy through training camp.