Official 2013 NBA Playoff Predictions

2013 NBA Playoff Predictions

The 2012-2013 NBA season surprisingly seems like a little bit of a blur, probably because the world spent a third of it up the ass of the Miami Heat. But that’s obviously the most memorable part of this past campaign: the Heat’s 27 game winning streak. Now, I openly hate Miami, but even I will not say anything to rain on their parade right now; to go one third of a season without losing is truly remarkable. Imagine a baseball team winning 54 games in a row. It’s just a lot to wrap your head around. LeBron James put together another statistical marvel of a season, and looks to be headed for his fourth MVP this year. He is definitely the most physically freakish athlete I’ve seen in my lifetime, with the size, strength, and speed to play any position on the basketball court while giving us highlight dunks and assists every single night. Of course, there were other notably great seasons from other players and teams as well that flew somewhat under the radar. Kevin Durant joined the 50-40-90 club while nearly leading the NBA in scoring without even leading his team in shots. Carmelo Anthony did top the Association in points per game while the Knicks jumped to the second best team in the East. There were arrivals by Denver and Brooklyn as teams to be reckoned with, while the Clippers were responsible for more than a few Lob City slams. Then there were the Lakers, who barely made the playoffs on the final game of the season, even with Kobe Bryant having a surprisingly efficient season (until his torn Achilles, of course). Paul George, Stephen Curry, and Kyrie Irving (UNCLE DREW!!!!!!!) established themselves as legitimate superstars, and James Harden flourished in his first season as a starter in Houston. The big metaphorical elephant in the room for this season is the chronicled absence of Derrick Rose while he has been recovering from his torn ACL. Even if your favorite team was embarrassing (like my Suns), 2012-2013 was a very fun season, but now it is on to the playoffs. So here’s how this piece is going to work: I’m going to run down some of my best and worst picks from my original predictions before the season (found here: http://tmaj4.blogspot.com/2012/10/official-2012-2013-nba-predictions.html), and after evaluating how I did, I will make all my playoff picks. I know that most of the series are a couple of games in, but believe me, I put all my selections online before the playoffs started, so the games so far have not effected my picks at all. So without further ado, here we go. Happy playoffs.

Here are my best predictions for this past season. Might as well start with the good stuff, right? In regards to the standings, I correctly picked the Spurs to finish 58-24, and had the Bucks in the 8 slot in the East. Even though this award hasn’t been handed out yet, George Karl could very well win Coach of the Year with my Nuggets, and Damian Lillard looks like he will edge out Anthony Davis for Rookie of the Year. I correctly tabbed four out of the top five scorers, and I would have had the right order out of those four if Carmelo had not stormed past KD to take the scoring title in the closing games. Also, I nailed DeMarcus Cousins leading the league in Technical Fouls! Very proud of that one. Some of my bold predictions were pretty solid as well. While cases for Brook Lopez and Joakim Noah can be made, I do think Al Horford was the best center in the East. He was second (again, among East centers) in scoring, rebounding, and assisting in the conference, and first in minutes (SEVEN whole minutes per game more than Lopez). The Bobcats did triple last year’s win total EXACTLY, while the Magic did have the worst record in the NBA. Many of my stat lines were at least in the ballpark, including those of Paul George, Anthony Davis, Evan Turner, and Kawhi Leonard. Finally, while Denver is still in the first round, they could very well make the Western Conference Finals like I predicted, but even if they don’t, they definitely fit the bill as the breakout team in the league. Denver finished 38-3 at home this year, winning 15 straight games overall during one stretch and ended the year with 57 wins and the 3 seed in the West. I’m most satisfied with this prediction over anything else.

Of course, I had some major blunders as well, as is expected. First and foremost, I picked the Lakers to win the NBA Finals, which obviously will not happen. They showed some signs of life here and there but injuries just decimated any rhythm that LA could get. I greatly underrated Brooklyn, who surged to the finish line as the 4 seed in the East, much better than the 7 slot I projected them to get. I also picked the Phoenix Suns to get the 8 seed out West...I’ll chalk that one up to blind fandom. They were a complete embarrassment this year. My only hope is that they get a top draft pick, and don’t screw it up. I really missed on the 76ers, basically because I assumed Andrew Bynum would not be a lazy bum made of glass bones. I did select Rondo to win MVP and Jason Terry for sixth man. I was wrong about Derrick Rose returning to the Bulls and potentially giving a heroic performance that would be retold throughout the centuries. IT’S NOT TOO LATE D ROSE!!!!!

There’s one prediction that I don’t want to say I whiffed on, even though it was not a success. I picked Evan Turner to win Most Improved Player, and while he obviously was not, he did set career highs in almost all offensive categories this year. He only finished with a little over 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game, but those aren’t terrible numbers either for a role player. In the first three months of the season, he averaged about 14-15 points, 7 rebounds, and 4-5 assists per game along with a steal and a 3, which was basically a poor man’s Paul George. He had a horrible second half of the season, but considering Most Improved Player is basically a blind crapshoot, I feel like this selection was pretty respectable.

Ok, so now we’re at the important part of this piece: the playoff predictions. Again, I was on record with all my picks before the postseason started, so none of my picks have been altered due to the previous games this week. I’m going to sort the series by conference and round, and give a short (I promise) little breakdown of the matchup. I’m going to give you my pick for the winner of the NBA Finals at the end, along with the Finals MVP and probably a bold prediction as well.

Round One

Miami over Milwaukee in 4. Broomsticks. Unfair matchup. Nothing more to say. I predicted both Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings to each average 20 points a night this year and they gave me 19.2 and 17.5, respectively. But this will be a sweep. I wish Boston would have tanked to get the 8 spot, because that series would be theater, even it was a sweep. This one just sucks.

New York over Boston in 6. A moment to acknowledge the victims of the bombings at the Boston Marathon last week, first and foremost. It is times like these that prove why we should be thankful for all police officers, firefighters, and all first responders on a daily basis. Now, to the series. The Knicks are more talented, but I think the Celtics will put up a fight because that’s what they do. The two X-factors of this series are JR Smith and Jeff Green. Coincidentally, they are also two of the most “explosive liabilities” in the league, in that they could either light a fire under their teams, or just as easily torch any chances of their team winning, if that makes sense.

Indiana over Atlanta in 5. This series is the Houston vs Cincinnati of the NBA playoffs. I do not plan on watching a single second of this atrocity. Hopefully the Pacers make it quick. It’s unwatchable.

Chicago over Brooklyn in 7. I love the Bulls, and I would love them even more if Derrick Rose came back. The Nets have enough talent to make this series very competitive, but in the end, I trust Coach Thibs and the brutally stifling defense of the Bulls to pull out a road win in 7, setting up an epic series with Miami. The Bulls won’t beat the Heat, but they will sure bruise them up.

Oklahoma City over Houston in 5. The Rockets will have that one game at home where Harden goes for 40 and the team rains threes. But that’s all. Houston is a team on the rise, but they can’t compete yet.

San Antonio over Los Angeles Lakers in 7. After watching those first two games, I was wrong. This series will not go 7 games. But that was my prediction, and like I said, I am not going to change it. Manu Ginobili has put his stamp on the series, and the Spurs are clicking. No Kobe for the Lakers means no success.

Denver over Golden State in 5. The thing that scares me is Golden State’s ability to drain threes in their sleep. Denver’s success in this series and beyond relies on the health of Kenneth Faried. After watching the first two games, this matchup looks like it’ll go farther than 5. But the Warriors are without David Lee, which is crippling.

Memphis over Los Angeles Clippers in 7. For the second year in a row, what a series. I do like Memphis, though, because they are a balanced team with defined roles and the most smothering defense in the league. As good as Chris Paul is, and as exciting the Clippers are to watch, I still think that they are too much style and not enough substance. I said that in my original predictions, and I’m reiterating it now. The Grizzlies are mentally and physically tougher than the Clips, enough so that I think that they will go into LA in Game Seven and advance.

Round Two

Miami over Chicago in 5. This may be a short series, but by no means will it be a walkover. The Bulls are mean and are not afraid to go toe to toe with the Heat. I hope it goes more than five games, but I don’t see how Chicago is going to muster enough points to win games consistently. The best hope they have is to keep pummeling LeBron and Wade every time they drive to the hoop. Take the fouls. Send a message. The Bulls will not go down fighting.

New York over Indiana in 5. The Knicks are just playing better than the Pacers. Plain and simple. And they have the best player in the series by far.

Oklahoma City over Memphis in 7. This is a great matchup, and one that the Grizzlies feel confident in. Even with all the talent of OKC, Memphis can matchup and dominate the inside with Gasol and Randolph, forcing the Thunder to make outside shots. This one goes the distance.

Denver over San Antonio in 6. All the Nuggets need to do is steal one of the first two games in Texas to put themselves in a position to win. The Spurs are a well-oiled machine, but Denver plays at such a pace that I don’t think even the Spurs will be able to keep up comfortably. I love this Denver team. I picked them to get to the Conference Finals before the season, and I’m not backing down from that now. The injury to Galinari does hurt, though, and the Nuggets aren’t winning this series without Faried at full strength.

Conference Finals

New York over Miami in 6. This is a straight homer pick. I will not lie and make excuses. I live in New York, and I don’t think that any of the teams out West, even though the conference is stacked, can take down the Heat. But the Knicks can match up with Miami. They won three out of four games against them this year, and although that can be misleading, the point is that Miami does not have a psychological advantage over New York. Chandler can man the inside, but the series is all about the threes of the Knicks. MSG will be a madhouse if this is a conference final series, and I think the Knicks will be completely emotionally invested every second of the series. All I want in these playoffs is for someone to take down the Heat. The Knicks have the ingredients to do it, and I’m picking them. I would be so pumped up for this. If the Knicks beat the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, it would be the biggest New York sporting triumph since the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl the first time around.

Oklahoma City over Denver in 7. The Nuggets, I believe beat the Thunder two times out of three this year, and the pace is a nightmare for OKC. Westbrook does get out of control, and so the Thunder would have to rely solely on Kevin Durant to carry the scoring load. However, the Nuggets can attack offensively from anywhere and led the NBA in points in the paint this year. I’m still taking the Thunder, however, even though I would love to see the Nuggets get to the Finals. Especially since that would mean Carmelo taking on Denver for a championship.

NBA Finals

Oklahoma City over New York in 7. This kills me to pick against the Knicks in the Finals. Even though Carmelo has had an amazing season, getting to the Finals would be a success for the Knicks. But the Thunder tasted defeat last year after getting so close to a ring, and this is Kevin Durant’s time. I think that in a Game Seven, the offensive shows put on by Durant and Anthony back and forth would be absolutely spectacular. But I’m taking Oklahoma City, even though I will root for the Knicks. The sacrifices you have to make to be objective, right? Durant will average 31 a game and win MVP. And for my bold prediction...Serge Ibaka will make more three pointers than Steve Novak. I know, not exactly relevant, but I think that’s pretty bold. Good luck to all the teams out there, and let’s have some great basketball.

P.S.: NOOOOOOOO!!!!! News broke today that Russell Westbrook has a torn meniscus. How does this happen. He’s never missed a game ever. And now he’s out indefinitely. Right after I pick the Thunder to go all the way. How is it that everyone suffers a major injury except for Miami? I don’t understand. Anyway, if Westbrook is out for the rest of the playoffs, then I don’t think the Thunder get by the Grizzlies in the second round. After Denver beats Memphis in seven games, the Knicks will beat the Nuggets, also in 7. But we’ll see how everything turns out. Westbrook’s injury is absolutely crushing.