Monday, August 26, 2013

2013 Miami Dolphins Preview

2013 Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins were supposed to be a rebuilding team last year, having just brought in first time head coach Joe Philbin and selected quarterback Ryan Tannehill in the first round of the 2012 draft. Instead, they pleasantly surprised a lot of people by immediately establishing themselves as the second best team in the AFC East. A big run in free agency that included the signing of Mike Wallace, Dustin Keller, Dannell Ellerbe, along with the drafting of Dion Jordan and the possible explosion of Cameron Wake make the Dolphins legitimate contenders to challenge the Patriots for the division title. I say, hold off on the Miami bandwagon for now. This is still a young team that hasn’t proven it could win anything, and we’ve seen time and time again where some big free agent signings do not translate to wins. New England may be hurting, but they still have more talent than this confident bunch from South Beach, and I think there are too many question marks surrounding the Dolphins for them to overtake the Pats. Lamar Miller could break out, and Ryan Tannehill could take the next step at quarterback, although it would have to be a giant leap since he did average less than one touchdown per game last year. The defense will probably be slightly above average but borderline top 10. There is no doubt that the 2013 Miami Dolphins are a team with promise that should contend for a playoff spot in the AFC, but I think it will have to be only for a wild card.

Schedule

The Dolphins finished 2012 with a 7-9 record, which is impressive considering they had a rookie coach and quarterback. They will look to build on their success from a year ago, and will need at least two extra wins to vault themselves into playoff position. But will they be able to get there?

Week 1: L at CLE
Week 2: L at IND
Week 3: W vs ATL
Week 4: L at NO
Week 5: W vs BAL
Week 6: Bye
Week 7: W vs BUF
Week 8: L at NE
Week 9: W vs CIN
Week 10: L at TB
Week 11: W vs SD
Week 12: W vs CAR
Week 13: W at NYJ
Week 14: L at PIT
Week 15: L vs NE
Week 16: L at BUF
Week 17: W vs NYJ

I think that the 2013 Miami Dolphins will finish the season 8-8. This would be disappointing in their eyes, as it is hard to imagine them grabbing a wild card with only eight wins. The crucial stretch for them is weeks 12-15, when they have four tough but winnable games in a row. If they are truly a playoff team, then the Dolphins should be able to take away three of those four matchups. You might be able to throw Miami an extra win Week 1 against Cleveland, but I think the Browns will steal it something like 21-19 or so. Also, Week 15 against the Pats is a huge game for them, but I think with all the talk the Dolphins have done this offseason, Brady and New England will take it personally, and make it a mission to embarrass Miami in front of their home crowd. This team is on the rise, but they aren’t quite there yet. My next preview: the dreaded New England Patriots. I still hate them.

Bold Prediction: Lamar Miller will rush for 1,172 yards and 7 TDs, with some quiet receiving production as well.

Friday, August 2, 2013

2013 Buffalo Bills Preview


2013 Buffalo Bills

The 2013 Buffalo Bills are a team in transition. They haven’t won anything in years, but no matter how much they rebuild, they were never quite good enough to compete with the Patriots this last decade. Usually, the problem was either quarterback play; one can only win so many games with the likes of JP Losman and Ryan Fitzpatrick running the offense. Last season, the defense was atrocious, allowing 3o or more points in nearly half their games. While this season should be another rebuilding campaign for the Bills, there is a real sense of hope for the first time in recent years. A new regime has taken over, led by former Syracuse coach Doug Marrone and their first round draft pick, former Florida State QB EJ Manuel. It looks like Kevin Kolb will get the Week 1 start, but Manuel is the signal caller of the future, someone whose ceiling could be a career like Donovan McNabb (although that, to me, is unlikely). There are a few stars on this team (Spiller, Mario Williams), but there isn’t enough talent to realistically compete in the AFC, yet. Let’s take a look at the schedule to see how many games the Bills could win in 2013. The offense looks promising, but the defense will hold this team back.

Schedule

Week 1: L vs NE
Week 2: L vs CAR
Week 3: W at NYJ
Week 4: L vs BAL
Week 5: L at CLE
Week 6: W vs CIN
Week 7: L at MIA
Week 8: L at NO
Week 9: W vs KC
Week 10: L at PIT
Week 11: W vs NYJ
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: L vs ATL
Week 14: L at TB
Week 15: W at JAC
Week 16: W vs MIA
Week 17: L at NE

Obviously, trying to predict every single game is a feat destined to fail. However, this exercise is more of a big picture thing: I think the 2013 Buffalo Bills will be 6-10 this season, after a 6-10 2012. This does not mean, however, that they will not improve in a way. With a new coach and quarterback (I think Manuel will become the starter sometime during the second half of the season) there will be growing pains, and I still think that the defense will struggle. This team will continue to get better in the coming years, but as for right now they are solidly locked in to the third place spot in the AFC East, behind the Dolphins but ahead of the Jets. The brightest spot on this roster is the running back, CJ Spiller, who is a candidate for the top overall RB in the NFL. He has incredible breakaway speed and top level elusiveness, which is a deadly combination for defenses. I think that he will be a top 10 fantasy back, in the bottom half, at about number 8. However, if Spiller does break out in a big way, that could steal Buffalo a couple of extra wins. The Bills have an uphill climb, and therefore I don’t think they will win more than 6 games. So now, I’ll leave you with a bold prediction, and the next team preview coming up will be for the Miami Dolphins. Until next time.

Bold Prediction: Rookie WR Robert Woods will lead the team in receptions and reception TDs (66 and 7, respectively).

Sunday, July 28, 2013

2013 NFL Preview


2013 NFL Preview

Welcome, readers, and get ready, once again, for another exciting season of football. We are just over a month away from kickoff, which means that it’s about time for me to start rolling out my predictions for the year. This consists of analysis of every team, including the predicted win-loss record, breakout stars or major disappointments, bold predictions, and of course, a Super Bowl champion at the end. Whether you trust my thoughts or not, you have to give me credit for picking the Baltimore Ravens to hoist the Lombardy Trophy from before the season. This year, I’m going for a winning streak. This preview will not go into much detail, as it is merely an introduction to the season, with some of my initial thoughts for what lies ahead. It is here that I will mention teams and players I am particularly optimistic about, applicable to real life as well as fantasy. Also keep in mind that over the course of the next few weeks, changes will occur (mainly due to injury), so not everything will be exact until my final prediction column that I will put out right before the start of the season. For example, already today, Jeremy Maclin seems to have tore his ACL, and Dennis Pitta suffered a dislocated hip, which slightly changes my opinions of the Eagles and Ravens. This post is supposed to be light and fun, and I’ll save the in-depth stuff for the team-by-team previews, which will begin hopefully tomorrow, starting with the Buffalo Bills (I will be going in alphabetical order by division, starting with the AFC East). I’ll get started without any further interruption. Happy Football, everybody.

Let me begin with the teams that I am bullish on, because it is an important subject. For almost every season in recent memory, there have been at least FIVE new teams in the playoffs (combined in both conferences), meaning that there is always some shaking up. Even further, statistics show that about one out of every four teams who finish 6-10 will make the playoffs next season. Bill Barnwell on Grantland wrote an interesting column about this trend. Last year, there were ten teams that fit the bill: Jets, Bills, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders, Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, and Cardinals. At least one of these teams will make the postseason in 2013 (I’ll get to my pick soon; I guarantee it will surprise you). Here are some quick hits on the teams I like this year (note: this doesn’t mean I automatically have them in the playoffs).
  • Miami: They’ve become so underrated that they are now overrated, but you cannot deny that they have made massive strides this offseason. We’ll see how quickly they can put the pieces together to challenge the Patriots in the AFC East.
  • Kansas City: Remember, this team had multiple Pro Bowlers, and now bring in a veteran coach (Reid), and a competent quarterback (Smith). In the weakest division in an overall weak conference, they could sneak into a Wild Card spot.
  • Saint Louis: Vastly underrated defense plus young, fast weapons on offense and a good coach in Jeff Fisher. People point to their brutal division as a downside...the Rams were 4-1-1 vs the NFC West last year, beating the Seahawks once and going 1-0-1 against the Super Bowl runner-up 49ers.
  • Tampa Bay: I love this team. Doug Martin took the NFL by storm last year but was obviously overshadowed by Adrian Peterson. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams make a solid WR duo, and their two stud guards are healthy this year. They had the top run defense last year and they added Darrelle Revis and Goldson to sure up the secondary. Their success rests on the arm of Josh Freeman, who is playing for a new contract. They are still under the radar, and I think they will be great.
  • Cleveland: This is my 6-10 or worse team that I mentioned before would make the playoffs. I know, I am a bit crazy. This would obviously be a miracle if it came true. But hear me out. Trent Richardson is the “beast mode” of the AFC. Josh Gordon is a legitimate downfield threat, and Davone Bess is pretty good in the slot. The defense will be much improved, especially upfront with the additions of Paul Kruger and rookie Mingo. I love the new coaching regime; Rob Chudzinski once took Derek Anderson to the Pro Bowl, Norv Turner (even though he was a bone-headed head coach) is an offensive guru who can succeed back as an OC, and their new defense coordinator is Ray Horton, who turned the Arizona defense into a formidable unit. The AFC is weak, and 9-7 can get a wild card (or maybe even win that division). This has a real chance of happening unless Brandon Weeden is still Brandon Weeden. Pittsburgh is without Wallace and Miller and has an agin defense; Cincinnati struggles on offense outside of AJ Green and can be stopped; The Ravens just overhauled their defense and lost Dennis Pitta for the year. But more on this in the Cleveland team preview, which will be a good read. Just remember: watch out for the Browns! I’m a believer.
  • Wild Card: Philadelphia Eagles. This does not mean I think they will necessarily win a wild card spot, it means that they are literally a wild card. I have no idea what to make of them. Chip Kelly is bringing his chaotic speed offense that will basically be the NFL version of the Steve Nash-led Phoenix Suns. They could easily go 12-4 and just as quickly finish 4-12. I originally pegged them for a 9-7 season, but I think the loss of Maclin costs them at least a game. Right now, I don’t see them making the playoffs, but I wanted to mention them because if nothing else, they will be exciting to watch, and they will be a popular pick to be that bad team to turn around and make the postseason right away.
Okay, now for some quicker hits on some of the teams I don’t really care for this year, even if it is a gut instinct. Sell their stock.
  • New York Jets: Self-explanatory. They suck.
  • Cincinnati: This team has a realistic chance to win the AFC North this year. However, I’m sick of them barely getting into the playoffs with an atrocious offense and giving us a hideous game with Houston where they lose immediately. Plus, I like Cleveland, so someone in the North has to fall back. Again, though, because I am objective, I have to at least point out that they could also be very good with the drafting of Bernard and Eifert, along with the return of Sanu to make the offense respectable. Their defense is already fantastic.
  • Washington: I don’t hate this team. I support RGIII and I hope he returns good as new from his ACL injury. However, I don’t think he’ll have the same impact (even if he plays all 16 games), nor will Alfred Morris. Their defense is average, although a healthy Brian Orakpo is a boost. This team will not be bad, but the NFC East is perennially a gauntlet, and the Redskins were 3-6 before winning their last seven games to win the division by a hair. I think that 2014 will be their year.
  • New Orleans: I had originally thought that the Saints would come out this year with Sean Payton back and explode with a vengeance. After a couple of months of thought, I’ve come down to earth. I think that this team is still a one-man show with Brees, with a suspect running game and a putrid defense. Couple that with the expected (by me) rise of the Bucs, and I’m looking at 8-8 with no playoffs.
  • San Francisco: Obligatory, because I’ve been anti-Kaepernick from the beginning, and I’m committed to that stance. The loss of Crabtree is a big blow, but Anquan Boldin will bring even more toughness to the offense. Are they a playoff team? Yes. I just think that Seattle will win this division, and the 49ers stumble. Just a bit.
Now that I’ve been through the teams, it’s time for my Love-Hate for the players. Remember, if you agree or disagree with anything, feel free to leave a comment, I’d love to know what people think. So for this section, I guess I’ll run through by positions for my sleepers and busts. For all the fantasy fanatics, stay with me. It’s about to go down. The people I name do not reflect my final rankings, only whether I think they are over- or undervalued, based on ESPN rankings.

Quarterbacks:
  • F YOU KAEPERNICK.
  • Major fan of Russell Wilson. He had 26 TDs last year and Seattle threw the ball the fewest times in the league. He’ll have an increased role running as well.
  • Bounce back year for Stafford, he’ll have 30+ TDs.
  • I also like Andrew Luck, and Freeman as a deep sleeper (all in on the Bucs).
  • As for Tom Brady...I think he finishes around the #7 ranked QB. He’ll get his yards because they run so many freaking plays, but his receiving corps are just decimated. No Welker, no Hernandez, banged-up Gronk, fragile Amendola...where are his TDs going to come? Even if you spot Gronk 10, in order for Brady to reach 30 touchdowns, he’d have to spread 20 between Edelman, Vareen, rookie Dobson...Brady slips a little bit, but stays in the top ten, because even though I hate him, he’s still Tom Brady. Although, having said that, I’m expecting a monster year from...
Running Backs:
  • Stevan Ridley: the Pats will run plays, and their passing numbers are bound to decline a little bit. Without Welker and Hernandez, and with Gronk dinged up, I expect Ridley to fill a lot of the void by running the ball, especially near the goal line. He is my early bold prediction pick to lead the NFL in rushing TDs, to go along with 1200-1300 yards. Note: fantasy-wise, Vareen is a nice handcuff.
  • Jamaal Charles will lead the NFL in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage.
  • Either David Wilson or Lamar Miller (my boy out of the U) will break out.
  • Down on Alfred Morris, MJD, Gore, and somewhat Steven Jackson. I think Jax will be better on the Falcons, but not worth a second round fantasy pick. Also a little down on Ray Rice, who I think will finish outside the top 10, but will be in the teens.
  • NEVER EVER PICK RYAN MATHEWS, DEMARCO MURRAY, MCFADDEN, ANY PANTHERS RB, OR ANY SAINTS RB. If they beat you, they beat you. Not worth a top pick to have them injured, except maybe McFadden if he’s your 3rd RB.
  • As far as rookies go, I really like Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh as a sleeper to get 10 TDs. Lacy in Green Bay and Montee Ball in Denver are shaky picks, because although they could produce, it’s hard to trust a rookie runner in a prolific passing offense. I also think Giovani Bernard will be the Bengals’ starter by the end of the year, if that means anything to you.
  • Reggie Bush equals PPR god. Pick him over Sproles in that scenario.
  • The Browns (Bryce and Andre) are good handcuffs, as are Bernard Pierce and Jacquizz Rodgers in the later rounds.
Wide Receivers
  • First of all, for anyone who listened to me last year, you’re welcome for Brandon Marshall. If you don’t know what I mean, go back and read my Chicago team preview from 2012.
  • Regarding this year, there are, to me, six elite wide outs: Megatron, AJ Green, Dez, Marshall, Julio Jones, and the soon-to-be-reborn Larry Fitzgerald. The three that I’m crazy about this year are Jones (the breakout star), Fitz (great value in the second crop of receivers), and Dez Bryant, who I think will be number one overall. You heard me. I think he’s in for a year with splits like 104/1,512/15 or something equally ridiculous.
  • I like all three Denver guys but it’s hard to say how much production will be inadvertently cut off from each guy. I like Thomas the best to duplicate his numbers.
  • Sleeper picks (really excited for this): Torrey Smith, Tavon Austin, TY Hilton, Mike Williams, Denarius Moore, Josh Gordon, and maybe Justin Blackmon, who’s breakout  year will probably be 2014 when he’s in his third season and not suspended four games. At least two of these guys will have either 1,200 or 10 TDs. Solid mid-to-late round picks in your fantasy draft as 4th and 5th receivers.
  • Guys I’m down on: Andre Johnson, Wallace, Steve Smith, Garcon, Miles Austin, Roddy (not top 10), Vincent Jackson (slightly more equal numbers to Mike Williams).
Tight Ends
  • This position is a crap shoot. Either take Jimmy Graham or wait like hell. A few names late to keep in mind: Greg Olsen, Brandon Myers, Jared Cook, Dwayne Allen.
Kickers
  • Do not pick one before the last round. A few names I like, based on nothing whatsoever: Matt Bryant, Justin Tucker, Dan Bailey, Sebastian Janikowski’s name.
D/ST
  • I usually don’t even factor in the special teams (unless it’s the Bears) part because those scores are so rare. This is also a confusing category, because it doesn’t usually award the best real life defenses. Points are determined based on score given up, sacks, and turnovers, so yardage doesn’t really matter. That’s how bend but don’t break defenses can succeed, like the Patriots last year, who gave up a ton of yards but not to many points, while forcing a bunch of turnovers. You would assume that Seattle (another one of my great predictions from last year) and San Francisco would finish one and two in some order, but there’s a 95% chance that it won’t happen that way. Instead of trying to rank this position, I’ll just give you two teams that I think will be great bargains, even if you have to pick them up off the waiver wire.
  • St. Louis has a very good defense that gets overshadowed by the Seahawks and the 49ers. They have two sack artists in Chris Long and Robert Quinn. James Laurinitis is a tank up the middle, and the Rams just also drafted Alec Ogletree. Their secondary is full of ball hawks as well, as rookie Janoris Jenkins proved last year. They are young and fast, and will be a top 10 D/ST.
  • The other unit I really like is Cleveland. Browns Nation, let me hear you! Like I said, Ray Horton is the new coordinator and he will attack with his 3-4 scheme. The pass rush will be improved with the additions of Kruger and Mingo, and D’Qwell Jackson should have a big year. Horton’s MLB in Arizona was Daryl Washington, who not only got plenty of tackles, but had I believe eight or nine sacks as well. Joe Haden is a great corner to lead the secondary. In a division and conference that doesn’t have many offensive powerhouses, this unit can thrive, keeping teams out of the end zone while racking up sacks, picks, and fumbles. I’m not saying they will be number one, but the Cleveland D/ST will be in the top 10, and maybe even the top 5.
That’s all I’ve got for you right now, but there will be much, much more to come as kickoff gets nearer. These predictions will probably change a little bit, but for right now, I have a lot of confidence in my beliefs. Before I finish, I’ll give you my temporary six playoff teams from each conference in seed order. This will most likely be the part of my predictions that change the most of the next few weeks, but this is a good indication on where my head is at right now. Feel free to pick it apart.

AFC: Denver, Baltimore (before Pitta injury), Houston, New England, Cleveland, Miami.
NFC: Seattle, TB/GB, GB/TB, New York Giants, San Francisco, Atlanta.

If those predictions hold true, I will have four new teams entering the playoffs (CLE, MIA, NYG, TB), which is still one off the magic number of five, so there could be another surprise team in the mix at some point. The thing that should jump off the page at you (besides the already covered lunacy of the Browns in the playoffs) is that NFC South race. Right now I have Tampa Bay ahead of Atlanta, although I like both teams a lot. I think this race will be exciting all year long, and both the Bucs and Falcons should still be playing come January. As far as the Super Bowl (which is being awesomely held in New York), I really have no clue yet who my winner will be. But since I’m a man of the people, I’ll sign off with this initial pick: Seattle over Denver. Two obvious flaws with this: the unknown health abomination that is Percy Harvin, and the fact that I will never pick two number one seeds to make the Super Bowl, because what fun is that? But there you go. Team previews coming soon. Enjoy, and may your team remain healthy through training camp.

Sunday, July 7, 2013

NBA 2012-2013 Playoffs Recap And More


NBA Recap 2012-2013

It’s been too long since I last wrote something, but don’t you worry; I’m about to be finished with school which means I’ll have much more time to commit to this blog. I’m going to have to anyway--football season is right around the corner! But before we switch gears and transition to the NFL, I wanted to wrap up the NBA season that is now behind us. Although it kills me, I must say congratulations to the Miami Heat, now the two-time defending champions. Last year they had some major luck with injuries to other teams and weren’t really tested too much; none of this was their fault, of course, but overall I don’t think it was a memorable title run. Those same slights cannot be applied to this year. The Heat earned this title and were pushed to the absolute limit to get it. But more on that in a little bit. First, there’s some things I want to say about the playoffs as a whole, and after, I’m going to include some tidbits about the draft and these first few days of free agency. It was one heck of a basketball season, and the craziness is going to keep on coming.

There is nothing quite like playoff basketball in sports. The theater and drama is unparalleled given the period of time it spans. You can argue that the NFL playoffs are more exciting because of the magnitude of each game, as is the NCAA tournament because of its unpredictability. You wouldn’t be wrong, but I think it would be like comparing apples and oranges, because single elimination postseasons are much different than a stretched out seven game series. The bad blood that stems from seeing the same opponent over and over again creates intense rivalries among the top teams. Just look at the Eastern Conference, with perennial matchups between teams like the Heat, Pacers, Bulls, Celtics, and Knicks. There were so many exciting moments during this postseason, and I want to give credit to a couple of players who became bright stars with their performance. First, I have to talk about Stephen Curry. This kid was the star of the first two rounds, as he led the Warriors to a victory over the favored Nuggets and put up a heck of a fight against the Spurs. He had some truly amazing quarters where he simply shot the lights out of whatever arena he happened to be in. Curry is already to most people, including me, the best pure shooter in the game, and the beauty of his shooting stroke is basically to basketball what Ken Griffey Jr’s swing was to baseball. He has made Golden State relevant, and next year will be must-see TV, in the same sort of way that the Seven Seconds or Less Phoenix Suns were with Steve Nash. The other guy who made a huge leap on the biggest stage was Paul George of the Indiana Pacers. Even though he is still a baby in this league, he was given the responsibility of being his team’s main scorer at the same time as defending the best player on the planet. He showed poise beyond his years in the Eastern Conference Finals, and was a majority of the reason why the Pacers shockingly took the Heat to seven games. Remember, at the end of overtime in Game One, he made all three free throws with two seconds left that would have won the game if they hadn’t given up the LeBron layup when Hibbert was on the bench. George and Curry will be two of the top seven or eight players in this league within five years.

Now, to the Finals. Subjectively, they were devastating in every way possible. These are my two most hated teams in the NBA, and are both in my top five in all of sports. Fine, I’ll give you the list. #5: Spurs. #4: Duke. #3: Red Sox. #2: Heat. #1: Patriots. I was put in the awkward situation of having to root for my arch-nemesis (remember, I grew up a Suns fan), because that’s just how much I want the Heat to lose. Objectively, however, this was the best Finals I have ever seen in person. This was truly basketball at its highest level, and us fans were lucky enough to enjoy seven games of it. This could have been a series to 15 and it would not have lost its luster. Every game had me either standing up or on the edge of my seat. Unfortunately, Game Six will be forever torched into my retinas. At least I’m not a Spurs fan. Instead of just blabbing on about everything, I’m going to cut all my points into sections because there’s so many things to talk about (I promise I won’t get to every one; I know you have lives).

I’ll start with everything about the Spurs. As a team, I’m kind of amazed they put up the fight that they did. I thought they were too old to hang with the West, but I actually did think that the Heat was a good matchup for them. I legitimately thought, after they let 3-2, that San Antonia was a lock to win the series. Even with two games in Miami, I didn’t think the Heat were playing well enough to beat them twice in a row. Then Game Six happened...and just completely destroyed my hopes and dreams. Even though they were up ten going into the fourth, it was quite obvious that Miami was going to make one more run. Tony Parker hit those two huge shots and LeBron turned the ball over twice, and San Antonio had a five point lead with 30 seconds left. In other words, the series was over. The trophy was being wheeled out to the court as the Spurs choked! I pretty much had the same reaction to the collapse as I did while watching Game of Thrones’ Red Wedding: I kind of knew what was about to happen, but even as it was happening, I was still just in shock and awe as I watched in horror. The night ended the same way: me going to bed without uttering a single word. Two missed free throws, two missed defensive rebounds...I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. Game Seven was another thriller that the Heat won in the final minute, ending the Spurs’ hopes at another title. It would have been the fifth for Duncan and Popovich. It really seemed like the last gasp for Ginobili. I don’t know if Parker was still shaken up by his hamstring or if he was just shut down by LeBron, but if he had given them absolutely anything in those two games, the Spurs win the title. The one time I actually wanted them to win, San Antonio had victory in their hands and choked it away. Unbelievable. Two quick positives: For those first five games, it was Danny Green’s world and we were all just living in it. That barrage of three’s (especially in Game Three, along with Gary Neal) was utterly ridiculous. He set the NBA Finals’ record for threes in only FIVE GAMES. What???? Unfortunately, the magic didn’t last, as he was, I believe, 2-19 combined in those final two games from the floor. But man, I have never seen a continued shooting display like that by a role player on that kind of stage in my life. The other: KAWHI LEONARD. Oh my god. At 21 years old, he was absolutely extraordinary, especially on the defensive end. His hands are so fast and strong, he was wreaking havoc all over the floor, and for the most part, stymied LeBron James the entire series! He became a more viable option offensively, and hit a shot that no one remembers in Game Seven: a three over LeBron with two minutes left to play to cut the lead back to 90-88 just when it looked like the Spurs were finished. Of course, the play everyone remembers was him missing one of those devastating free throws down the stretch in Game Six that might have cost his team a championship, but that isn’t fair, because he played so much higher than his expectations. He was the unsung hero for the Spurs.

Now, as for the Heat...I can’t hate on them right now. They went through hell and back to get past the Pacers and the Spurs to win this ring. They were pushed to the limit in that Finals series, and were dead to rights, but never quit, and remarkably stayed alive just enough to win the title. It’s incredible when you realize that the Heat have played in three straight Finals, LeBron played in the Olympics, and they still never wore down. I think all of those games will have a bigger impact next season, when the Pacers will be better, the Nets will be loaded, and Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook will be back as well. The Big Three gave everything they had to win their second championship, even though Wade and Bosh struggled most of the postseason. Even though Bosh especially struggled in Game Seven with NO POINTS because he was in foul trouble, I think he gets a pass because his defense in Game Six saved this team. He should not be traded or amnestied. Another unsung hero was Shane Battier, who, after being worthless the entire series, comes off the bench in Game Seven and hits six threes. I mean, how the hell does that happen??? That Ray Allen three at the end of Game Six to force overtime will be one of the most iconic shots of the century, even in fifty years. HE NEVER EVEN TURNED AROUND TO SEE WHERE THE LINE WAS, HE JUST BACKPEDALED AND INSTINCTIVELY KNEW WHERE HE WAS ON THE FLOOR IN THE BIGGEST MOMENT OF HIS CAREER AND SWISHED THE SHOT THAT SAVED THE HEAT AND ALTERED THE LEGACIES OF SOME OF THE BEST PLAYERS OF ALL TIME; THE ENORMITY OF THAT MOMENT CAN NOT BE OVERSTATED. It’s crazy how sports works: Allen was killed by many for ditching the Celtics and joining their rival. A year later, Boston is in shambles, and Allen hits the defining shot of his Hall of Fame career to bring said rival a championship. That will be a shot which people at the game will tell their grandchildren about--you know, the ones who actually stayed around to see it instead of walking out. Again, that game will live on in my nightmares as the most horribly exciting important game of my lifetime.

LeBron needs a separate section for himself, not out of respect (okay, maybe a little bit), but out of necessity, because he is so polarizing an athlete. I am known to be a LeBron James critic, to say the least. I’m not one of those bandwagon haters, either, who joined the ranks only after the decision; I never particularly, even during his Cleveland days. The last few years in Miami just exacerbated the issue. Before I take some shots at him, I have to give credit where credit is due. The major knock on James prior to the Finals was that although he had become so much more well rounded, he had never really scared anybody with his jump shot. We saw it the first six games of the series: the Spurs played off him, dared him to shoot, and blocked off the driving lines. LeBron did shoot, and had a relatively atrocious percentage from outside. For most of the first six games, James struggled and was held in check. I think it took him four or five games to even get above 20 points. However, Game Seven was the night he vanquished all doubts about his skills, or lack thereof. LeBron, in my opinion, fully earned the nickname of the King for the first time, by stepping up in the biggest game of his life. He made five threes and made the Spurs pay for playing off him. When the title was hanging in the balance at the end of the seventh game, James hit two pull up jumpers to ice the game and seal the championship, doing what the Spurs could not the game before. Even though I was obviously angry about the result of the series, I could not be depressed, because if I knew that if LeBron won by making those dreaded jump shots, then he truly deserved to win. In the game he needed to win, he faced his fears head on and eliminated the one flaw in his offensive repertoire. He deserved the Finals MVP, and his second ring.

Now, with that said...there are things that bother me about him. It is the main reason I despise the Heat with every fiber of my being. The arrogance level of him and the entire team, on the court, is absolutely pathetic and inexcusable. It must be said, that off the court, LeBron has never had any incidents or been in trouble, and I applaud him for that. But I get to hate him when he gets inside the lines. It started way back when the Big Three were introduced together, and they acted like they were already crowned. LeBron made the “not five, not six, not seven...” remark, and I thought, “okay LeBron, that’s fine to say, but you better back that up and I hope you never get there”. He is undeniably the most talented player in the world, but he plays the game cheap and hypocritically. When he makes a drive to the basket and finishes at the rim, he screams like a hooligan at the crowd and kisses his flexed biceps so everyone knows how strong he is, which is defensible showboating because he is that strong. But if he is going to do that, then he can’t pretend he’s weak, and that’s what he does every single time he flops on defense. Are you trying to tell me that he’s strong enough to finish over seven footers but when someone half his size bumps into him slightly, it’s enough force to send him flying down to the floor? It’s disgraceful, and if he tried that in the eighties when MJ played, he would get mocked and actually thrown to the floor by the tough guys back then. And then, of course, he makes theatrical gestures every time a foul is called against him, or when he does not get a call while driving to the basket, as though he is a god and the refs should bow to him. This is the ultimate form of arrogance, and it is something that is teammate Dwyane Wade does even more than James, to the point where late in the fourth quarter in an NBA Finals game (I believe it’s Game Five), Wade yells at the ref with his arms out instead of getting back on defense, leaving Danny Green wide open to hit a transition three that ices the game. Oh, and don’t even get me started on the rat that is Mario Chalmers. It’s absolutely sickening to see them win when they don’t have the class of a champion. Their “fans” have taken the same approach, I guess, as shown when they left Game Six early when it looked like they were about to lose. If LeBron leaves in 2014, I guarantee the arena will immediately behalf empty. I am against everything the Miami Heat stand for.

As for LeBron himself, I think his ceiling is a top five player of all time, maybe even as high as number two. He can never pass Michael Jordan, and anyone who says that he is better does not know anything about basketball; they are just frontrunning bandwagoners living in the moment with no perspective and historical knowledge. The argument isn’t really that hard to make either. It is very possible, if not probable, that James will end up with better core statistics than MJ (points, rebounds, assists, etc.). That’s as far as you can go debating for LeBron. I am of the opinion that James will never pass Jordan in championships. Right now the tally is 6-2. If LeBron wins five more, then we’ll talk. But the fact is, LBJ has won two out of four Finals he has been in, while MJ went 6-6 with 6 MVPs. If the Spurs had not collapsed in Game Six, that number could easily have been one out of four. Michael Jordan never even needed seven games to win a championship. He took two years off in the nineties, came back, and his Bulls won the record 72 games the following year! What if he had played in the NBA those two years? We could, potentially, be talking about EIGHT TITLES IN A ROW. People say that LeBron succeeded with a Cavs team that was horrible, which is fair. However, the entire Eastern Conference last decade was abysmal, and when teams got better, he couldn’t beat them (’08 Celtics, ’09 Magic, etc.). At the beginning of Jordan’s career, he faced off against Bird’s Celtics, Isiah’s Pistons, Magic’s Lakers, Hakeem’s Rockets, Ewing’s Knicks, Barkley’s 76ers.... LeBron couldn’t win a title until he joined forces with his number one rival in the conference, added Chris Bosh as well, and still couldn’t win his first year because he choked in the fourth quarters against Dallas. In the last three years, the Heat have made the Finals all three times and won twice; at the peaks of his career, MJ won the Finals three straight times, TWICE. Too many teams are getting better today (Pacers, Nets, Thunder, Bulls, etc.) that I don’t think LeBron can win four more titles, especially not with an aging Heat team. If you’re a LeBron supporter, that’s fine, but there are absolutely no arguments you can make that trumps what I just wrote. We’ll see what happens for the rest of his career, but I think at best LeBron can be number two. And that’s still very high praise.

Okay, now that we finally got through all of that, here are some quick points on the draft. I’m not a draft expert, and I have no idea how to rate prospects, so whatever I’m about to say comes straight from gut instinct. I do love watching college basketball, though, so I’m not a fool, either. Before I get to the players, I want to say that I loved the interaction between Stern and the fans, with the booing and the jokes, and then the standing ovation right at the end as he made he final pick announcement ever. Then, after applauding Adam Silver (the next Commish) all these years, he got greeted with a boo to signify the passing of the torch. Great stuff. As for the players, I’m not going to talk about any second round draft picks or international guys (how many of them actually pan out? no huge star like Rubio here) because why bother. Out of the (relatively) big names, here are some guys I like or don’t like.

The Cavaliers taking Anthony Bennett at number one was a bit of a shock, but I didn’t really mind it. Remember, nothing or no one is a sure thing in a draft, especially this one, and Bennett can fit into that team is a undersized, high energy four guy who can crash the glass, kind of like a better offensive Reggie Evans. Do I think he’ll be great? Not necessarily. But in this draft, if he stays healthy and can give them 14-9 with a high motor, he’ll compliment the young guards Kyrie, Waiters, and now Jarrett Jack.

I love Victor Oladipo, and I was really frustrated when he went to the Magic, because they suck and he has a chance to be great. People compare him to Dwyane Wade, but I don’t think he’ll be able to score enough to warrant that comp. He could be the second best player on a championship team at his ceiling, and maybe average 17-6-4 with like 2 steals and 1.5 threes a night and great D. Just a great overall player. Again, he just has to get out of the abyss that is Orlando.

As a Suns fan, I really wanted them to get this pick right, and I think Alex Len has a nice future if he develops well. He’s over seven feet, so he could be a great big man to have for years to come. I’m happier to have him then if they would have had Noel. I think he can be a better Omer Asik in a couple of years, averaging like a 15-13 and 2 blocks. At least that’s what I hope, anyway.

Other guys I like in their roles: Trey Burke (major “it factor”, will get good minutes right away), Steven Adams (OKC needs a big center to replace Perkins), Reggie Bullock (great shooter at UNC, disappointed he went to Clips - don’t like them - but he can be a quality role playing SF), and Tim Hardaway Jr (big time shooter, I think good match for the bright lights of MSG, this just feels like a good fit).

Also, here are some guys I am not a fan of, and I think will really underwhelm:
Otto Porter Jr (decent college player, not good enough to beat a 15 seed in the tourney, an all-around solid talent but no defining skill), Noel and MCW (sorry, 76ers fans, I think Dieng will be better than Noel, and Burke over Carter-Williams), Mason Plumlee (obligatory hatred of rich white guy who played at Duke). Supposedly next year’s draft is supposed to be loaded, so I’ll have more to say next year. Just remember: the best player out of this draft will be Oladipo, biggest disappointment is Noel. Top Ten Under the Radar Guy Who Will Play a Surprisingly Big Role On a Playoff Team in the Next Three Years: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET).

Ok, finally, finally, a few quick hits on free agency. First, what’s up with all the coaching changes? The Doc situation with Boston was crazy, but he’ll be happy in LA, and I like Brad Stevens coming up to the NBA. George Karl getting fired was surprising considering he had literally just won Coach of the Year like ten minutes prior. The guy who I really think got shafted was Lionel Hollins. This guy just led Memphis to the Western Conference Finals by thrashing the Clippers and the Thunder, and he gets canned? What gives? Also, why hasn’t anyone picked him up yet?

As for the players: love Bledsoe coming to the Suns, even though I don’t know how long he’ll be there. At least he’ll be exciting. Redick on the Clips will be devastating; he’ll have tons of open shots, and can be on the floor in crunch time because of his free throw percentage. Plus, Doc could run out a small ball lineup of Paul, Crawford, Redick, Barnes/Bullock, and Griffin. Jarrett Jack signed with the Cavs, giving them guard depth, and taking pressure of Kyrie to score all the time. I’m not sure why Kyle Korver resigned with the Hawks; like Redick, he’s a classic “sign with a contender to give them instant three point shooting off the bench” guy--I mean, look at what Ray Allen just did, he could have been useful! Also don’t know why the Bucks signed OJ Mayo when it seems like they are trying to tank. Now they’ll be in no man’s land next year, with a pick like number nine in the draft.

Now for the big names. The Dwight Howard saga is finally over as it seems like he will sign with Houston, unless he changes his mind right before he signs his contract. I like this move for him, even though I dislike Dwight himself. They immediately become a contender, although the West is a gauntlet, but any team with Dwight and James Harden with some pieces surrounding them should be enough to get a top four seed. Josh Smith signed with the Pistons, who will have a pleasantly delightful team next season and should make the playoffs with a lineup that includes Knight, Caldwell-Pope, Smith, Monroe, and Drummond. Spacing will be a problem but that starting five is solid, especially the frontcourt. Andre Iguodala signed with the Warriors which is huge, and will keep them relevant. Their small ball lineup will be devastating, with Curry, Thompson, Iggy, Barnes, and Lee. Iguodala brings defense, athleticism, and leadership, and even though they aren’t that deep, the Warriors will be exciting and a team to be reckoned with next season. Side note: oh my god, look at the West for next year. Spurs, Thunder, Grizzlies, Rockets, Warriors, Nuggets (maybe), Clippers, a possible breakout for the Trail Blazers (they should pull a Rays and drop the “Trail”), T-Wolves, and the Pelicans (!). What a loaded conference. Finally, we come to the Boston-Nets trade that sent Paul Pierce and KG over to Brooklyn. It made me really sad when the announcement came out, because those Boston teams were so fun to root for, and had so much heart. Even when they were starting to fall apart in 2012, they still pushed the Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals after leading 3-2. However, Brooklyn just got a lot scarier. Depth will be a problem of some sort, but Pierce and Garnett only have to be the fourth and fifth scoring options on that team if they need to be. The starting five of Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, and Lopez can take on the Heat right now and, if they commit to defense like they should with KG on the team, would probably come out on top against the starters of Miami. I’m not saying that the Nets will overtake the Heat in the Eastern Conference this year, but they will be a force. The obvious question mark with that team is Jason Kidd as head coach, which I’m still kind of stunned over. He is the biggest wild card/x factor of the Eastern Conference; if Kidd is somehow a naturally great coach, then this team could easily reach the ECF, or could just as easily be one and done if he struggles. One thing is for sure: I think that the Nets will be better than the Knicks.

Well, this post is Exhibit A of why I never say that my writings will be quick. Basketball is definitely on the rise, and next season is sure to be exciting. With many of the teams on the bottom tanking (allegedly) for better draft lottery odds, the Association will be very top-heavy, meaning that when the playoffs roll around, there are going to be incredible matchups starting in Round One and just getting better from there. I hope everyone enjoyed this season, and I can’t wait until the 2013-2014 edition of the NBA!

Thursday, June 6, 2013

2013 NBA Finals Predictions

I'll be in the car all day going to Buffalo so here's a condensed version of my NBA Finals predictions: Spurs in 7. The Spurs are my arch-rival but I hate the Heat more than anything. I think Manu outplays Wade, with Bosh only averaging 11 ppg. LeBron will get his (28 pts, 7 rbs, 5 ast per game), as will Duncan (21 and 12). The key role player will be Danny Green, who will average double digit points with two three's a game. But Tony Parker wins his second Finals MVP by averaging 24 points and 11 assists per game, along with 28 and 13 in the clincher. Duncan and Pop get their 5th title together. San Antonio will win games 1, 4, 5, and 7. Tonight's score: 97-92 SA. Both of these teams are in my Top Five Most Hated Teams In Sports, so I'm not happy about this matchup, but these my picks. The truth has been spoken. Spurs win, and the Heat fall to 1 title in 3 years. I hope you enjoy this Finals, because I won't. And if King James loses this Finals, then he pretty much becomes Peyton Manning (one of the best ever, but not the greatest winner).

Friday, April 26, 2013

Official 2013 NBA Playoff Predictions


2013 NBA Playoff Predictions

The 2012-2013 NBA season surprisingly seems like a little bit of a blur, probably because the world spent a third of it up the ass of the Miami Heat. But that’s obviously the most memorable part of this past campaign: the Heat’s 27 game winning streak. Now, I openly hate Miami, but even I will not say anything to rain on their parade right now; to go one third of a season without losing is truly remarkable. Imagine a baseball team winning 54 games in a row. It’s just a lot to wrap your head around. LeBron James put together another statistical marvel of a season, and looks to be headed for his fourth MVP this year. He is definitely the most physically freakish athlete I’ve seen in my lifetime, with the size, strength, and speed to play any position on the basketball court while giving us highlight dunks and assists every single night. Of course, there were other notably great seasons from other players and teams as well that flew somewhat under the radar. Kevin Durant joined the 50-40-90 club while nearly leading the NBA in scoring without even leading his team in shots. Carmelo Anthony did top the Association in points per game while the Knicks jumped to the second best team in the East. There were arrivals by Denver and Brooklyn as teams to be reckoned with, while the Clippers were responsible for more than a few Lob City slams. Then there were the Lakers, who barely made the playoffs on the final game of the season, even with Kobe Bryant having a surprisingly efficient season (until his torn Achilles, of course). Paul George, Stephen Curry, and Kyrie Irving (UNCLE DREW!!!!!!!) established themselves as legitimate superstars, and James Harden flourished in his first season as a starter in Houston. The big metaphorical elephant in the room for this season is the chronicled absence of Derrick Rose while he has been recovering from his torn ACL. Even if your favorite team was embarrassing (like my Suns), 2012-2013 was a very fun season, but now it is on to the playoffs. So here’s how this piece is going to work: I’m going to run down some of my best and worst picks from my original predictions before the season (found here: http://tmaj4.blogspot.com/2012/10/official-2012-2013-nba-predictions.html), and after evaluating how I did, I will make all my playoff picks. I know that most of the series are a couple of games in, but believe me, I put all my selections online before the playoffs started, so the games so far have not effected my picks at all. So without further ado, here we go. Happy playoffs.

Here are my best predictions for this past season. Might as well start with the good stuff, right? In regards to the standings, I correctly picked the Spurs to finish 58-24, and had the Bucks in the 8 slot in the East. Even though this award hasn’t been handed out yet, George Karl could very well win Coach of the Year with my Nuggets, and Damian Lillard looks like he will edge out Anthony Davis for Rookie of the Year. I correctly tabbed four out of the top five scorers, and I would have had the right order out of those four if Carmelo had not stormed past KD to take the scoring title in the closing games. Also, I nailed DeMarcus Cousins leading the league in Technical Fouls! Very proud of that one. Some of my bold predictions were pretty solid as well. While cases for Brook Lopez and Joakim Noah can be made, I do think Al Horford was the best center in the East. He was second (again, among East centers) in scoring, rebounding, and assisting in the conference, and first in minutes (SEVEN whole minutes per game more than Lopez). The Bobcats did triple last year’s win total EXACTLY, while the Magic did have the worst record in the NBA. Many of my stat lines were at least in the ballpark, including those of Paul George, Anthony Davis, Evan Turner, and Kawhi Leonard. Finally, while Denver is still in the first round, they could very well make the Western Conference Finals like I predicted, but even if they don’t, they definitely fit the bill as the breakout team in the league. Denver finished 38-3 at home this year, winning 15 straight games overall during one stretch and ended the year with 57 wins and the 3 seed in the West. I’m most satisfied with this prediction over anything else.

Of course, I had some major blunders as well, as is expected. First and foremost, I picked the Lakers to win the NBA Finals, which obviously will not happen. They showed some signs of life here and there but injuries just decimated any rhythm that LA could get. I greatly underrated Brooklyn, who surged to the finish line as the 4 seed in the East, much better than the 7 slot I projected them to get. I also picked the Phoenix Suns to get the 8 seed out West...I’ll chalk that one up to blind fandom. They were a complete embarrassment this year. My only hope is that they get a top draft pick, and don’t screw it up. I really missed on the 76ers, basically because I assumed Andrew Bynum would not be a lazy bum made of glass bones. I did select Rondo to win MVP and Jason Terry for sixth man. I was wrong about Derrick Rose returning to the Bulls and potentially giving a heroic performance that would be retold throughout the centuries. IT’S NOT TOO LATE D ROSE!!!!!

There’s one prediction that I don’t want to say I whiffed on, even though it was not a success. I picked Evan Turner to win Most Improved Player, and while he obviously was not, he did set career highs in almost all offensive categories this year. He only finished with a little over 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game, but those aren’t terrible numbers either for a role player. In the first three months of the season, he averaged about 14-15 points, 7 rebounds, and 4-5 assists per game along with a steal and a 3, which was basically a poor man’s Paul George. He had a horrible second half of the season, but considering Most Improved Player is basically a blind crapshoot, I feel like this selection was pretty respectable.

Ok, so now we’re at the important part of this piece: the playoff predictions. Again, I was on record with all my picks before the postseason started, so none of my picks have been altered due to the previous games this week. I’m going to sort the series by conference and round, and give a short (I promise) little breakdown of the matchup. I’m going to give you my pick for the winner of the NBA Finals at the end, along with the Finals MVP and probably a bold prediction as well.

Round One

Miami over Milwaukee in 4. Broomsticks. Unfair matchup. Nothing more to say. I predicted both Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings to each average 20 points a night this year and they gave me 19.2 and 17.5, respectively. But this will be a sweep. I wish Boston would have tanked to get the 8 spot, because that series would be theater, even it was a sweep. This one just sucks.

New York over Boston in 6. A moment to acknowledge the victims of the bombings at the Boston Marathon last week, first and foremost. It is times like these that prove why we should be thankful for all police officers, firefighters, and all first responders on a daily basis. Now, to the series. The Knicks are more talented, but I think the Celtics will put up a fight because that’s what they do. The two X-factors of this series are JR Smith and Jeff Green. Coincidentally, they are also two of the most “explosive liabilities” in the league, in that they could either light a fire under their teams, or just as easily torch any chances of their team winning, if that makes sense.

Indiana over Atlanta in 5. This series is the Houston vs Cincinnati of the NBA playoffs. I do not plan on watching a single second of this atrocity. Hopefully the Pacers make it quick. It’s unwatchable.

Chicago over Brooklyn in 7. I love the Bulls, and I would love them even more if Derrick Rose came back. The Nets have enough talent to make this series very competitive, but in the end, I trust Coach Thibs and the brutally stifling defense of the Bulls to pull out a road win in 7, setting up an epic series with Miami. The Bulls won’t beat the Heat, but they will sure bruise them up.

Oklahoma City over Houston in 5. The Rockets will have that one game at home where Harden goes for 40 and the team rains threes. But that’s all. Houston is a team on the rise, but they can’t compete yet.

San Antonio over Los Angeles Lakers in 7. After watching those first two games, I was wrong. This series will not go 7 games. But that was my prediction, and like I said, I am not going to change it. Manu Ginobili has put his stamp on the series, and the Spurs are clicking. No Kobe for the Lakers means no success.

Denver over Golden State in 5. The thing that scares me is Golden State’s ability to drain threes in their sleep. Denver’s success in this series and beyond relies on the health of Kenneth Faried. After watching the first two games, this matchup looks like it’ll go farther than 5. But the Warriors are without David Lee, which is crippling.

Memphis over Los Angeles Clippers in 7. For the second year in a row, what a series. I do like Memphis, though, because they are a balanced team with defined roles and the most smothering defense in the league. As good as Chris Paul is, and as exciting the Clippers are to watch, I still think that they are too much style and not enough substance. I said that in my original predictions, and I’m reiterating it now. The Grizzlies are mentally and physically tougher than the Clips, enough so that I think that they will go into LA in Game Seven and advance.

Round Two

Miami over Chicago in 5. This may be a short series, but by no means will it be a walkover. The Bulls are mean and are not afraid to go toe to toe with the Heat. I hope it goes more than five games, but I don’t see how Chicago is going to muster enough points to win games consistently. The best hope they have is to keep pummeling LeBron and Wade every time they drive to the hoop. Take the fouls. Send a message. The Bulls will not go down fighting.

New York over Indiana in 5. The Knicks are just playing better than the Pacers. Plain and simple. And they have the best player in the series by far.

Oklahoma City over Memphis in 7. This is a great matchup, and one that the Grizzlies feel confident in. Even with all the talent of OKC, Memphis can matchup and dominate the inside with Gasol and Randolph, forcing the Thunder to make outside shots. This one goes the distance.

Denver over San Antonio in 6. All the Nuggets need to do is steal one of the first two games in Texas to put themselves in a position to win. The Spurs are a well-oiled machine, but Denver plays at such a pace that I don’t think even the Spurs will be able to keep up comfortably. I love this Denver team. I picked them to get to the Conference Finals before the season, and I’m not backing down from that now. The injury to Galinari does hurt, though, and the Nuggets aren’t winning this series without Faried at full strength.

Conference Finals

New York over Miami in 6. This is a straight homer pick. I will not lie and make excuses. I live in New York, and I don’t think that any of the teams out West, even though the conference is stacked, can take down the Heat. But the Knicks can match up with Miami. They won three out of four games against them this year, and although that can be misleading, the point is that Miami does not have a psychological advantage over New York. Chandler can man the inside, but the series is all about the threes of the Knicks. MSG will be a madhouse if this is a conference final series, and I think the Knicks will be completely emotionally invested every second of the series. All I want in these playoffs is for someone to take down the Heat. The Knicks have the ingredients to do it, and I’m picking them. I would be so pumped up for this. If the Knicks beat the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, it would be the biggest New York sporting triumph since the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl the first time around.

Oklahoma City over Denver in 7. The Nuggets, I believe beat the Thunder two times out of three this year, and the pace is a nightmare for OKC. Westbrook does get out of control, and so the Thunder would have to rely solely on Kevin Durant to carry the scoring load. However, the Nuggets can attack offensively from anywhere and led the NBA in points in the paint this year. I’m still taking the Thunder, however, even though I would love to see the Nuggets get to the Finals. Especially since that would mean Carmelo taking on Denver for a championship.

NBA Finals

Oklahoma City over New York in 7. This kills me to pick against the Knicks in the Finals. Even though Carmelo has had an amazing season, getting to the Finals would be a success for the Knicks. But the Thunder tasted defeat last year after getting so close to a ring, and this is Kevin Durant’s time. I think that in a Game Seven, the offensive shows put on by Durant and Anthony back and forth would be absolutely spectacular. But I’m taking Oklahoma City, even though I will root for the Knicks. The sacrifices you have to make to be objective, right? Durant will average 31 a game and win MVP. And for my bold prediction...Serge Ibaka will make more three pointers than Steve Novak. I know, not exactly relevant, but I think that’s pretty bold. Good luck to all the teams out there, and let’s have some great basketball.

P.S.: NOOOOOOOO!!!!! News broke today that Russell Westbrook has a torn meniscus. How does this happen. He’s never missed a game ever. And now he’s out indefinitely. Right after I pick the Thunder to go all the way. How is it that everyone suffers a major injury except for Miami? I don’t understand. Anyway, if Westbrook is out for the rest of the playoffs, then I don’t think the Thunder get by the Grizzlies in the second round. After Denver beats Memphis in seven games, the Knicks will beat the Nuggets, also in 7. But we’ll see how everything turns out. Westbrook’s injury is absolutely crushing.

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Official 2013 MLB Predictions


Official 2013 MLB Predictions

We are at the end of March, which can mean only one thing: there’s a new season of baseball around the corner. America’s pastime is about to begin with a new chapter in its history, so it’s time for me to whip out all my Yankee good luck charms in the hopes that 2013 will be the year of 28. People say that the two most exciting words in all of sports are “Game Seven”, but there are another two words that have to be ranked right behind: “Opening Day”. There’s no thrill quite like the beginning of a new baseball season, with spring in the air, hot dogs to be eaten, and a beautiful game to be played. If you don’t know already, I am a diehard Yankee fan, which means that I am absolutely spoiled and biased, but as I write down my thoughts for you throughout the year, I’ll try to make sure my opinions are as objective and true as possible...that’s right, “try”. I am planning on making a huge Yankees piece before the season starts on Monday, as well as a post about the rise and fall of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry throughout my lifetime, but this column is not for those stories. In this piece, I am going to make all of my predictions, from standings to statistics, and of course, the World Series Champion. So far I have correctly predicted one World Series exactly from before the season: in 2009, I picked the Yankees to beat the Phillies in six games, which they did. That did bring up an awkward situation when the Bombers were up 3-1 and I didn’t know whether or not I wanted them to win or lose Game 5. I have never correctly predicted another World Series because I have fallen into the trap of picking the Yankees every single year. However, that isn’t too much of a homer pick, because they are always a top team season after season. This season has a different feel to it, so you may be surprised of who I’m picking to win the World Series this year...to prove that point, I’ll tell you that I still don’t know who my winner will be as I’m writing this column right now. We’ll get there by the end of the piece, I promise. So here’s how I’m making this happen: I’m going to start with regular season standings, then go through a bunch of player statistics, give out some awards, and finish up with the playoffs. I’m ready to go. I hope you are too. Enjoy.

American League
West                                                                          Central                                                                  East
OAK:   93-69                                                          DET:  94-68                                                      TB:    93-69
LAA:   90-72                                                           CLE:  85-77                                                         NYY: 91-71
SEA:   86-76                                                           KC:     81-81                                                        BAL:  87-75
TEX:   84-78                                                              CWS:  79-83                                                      TOR:  83-79
HOU:  54-108                                                         MIN:  61-101                                                      BOS:  78-84

 National League
West                                                                          Central                                                                   East
SF:    93-69                                                            CIN:   94-68                                                        WAS:   97-65
ARI:  88-74                                                             STL:   86-76                                                         ATL:    90-72
LAD: 85-77                                                            PIT:   82-80                                                         PHI:     83-79
SD:    75-87                                                             MIL:  77-85                                                         NYM:   76-86
COL: 68-94                                                            CHC:  66-96                                                        MIA:    61-101

There are my complete standings for all 30 teams. I have five of the six division champions repeating, which I am not a fan of, but I just feel like there are a select few teams that are just a notch better than everyone else. The National League in particular is particularly chalky, with mainly the top teams staying there. The two divisions to watch are the American League West and East. Even with the addition of Josh Hamilton, I still am not a big believer in the Angels, although I still think that they are talented enough to actually make the playoffs this year. I think Oakland will play well enough with their young pitchers and stay on top of the West. The balance of power will shift a little bit in the middle of the division; I think that Seattle is vastly underrated and Texas is slightly overrated. While the Mariners might not have enough talent in the tank to overtake the Rangers in the standings, I put them there anyway to drive home the point. The AL East, meanwhile, is a clusterf**k from top to bottom. I could make an argument for any team finishing first and any team finishing last. I feel that my predictions for this division are fair, understandable, and probable. The Rays will come out on top because of their consistency and their great young pitching. The question for them is their offense, but I think that Tampa will be able to score enough runs lead by a monster year from Evan Longoria. I think the Yankees will finish second, but that will depend on how quickly their stars return from injury. If Tex and Granderson are back by the end of May, then I think the Empire will be able to go on a tear for the last four months. The Orioles and Blue Jays are both wild cards here (as in their unpredictability, not getting a spot in the playoffs). The O’s had a magical season last year, and I don’t think too much of it was a fluke. The 29-9 record in one run games will not be repeated, but there’s enough talent and will there to be in playoff contention. The Blue Jays, on paper, are loaded. But I think the injury bug will bite them, and the players they acquired will not play up to expectations. They have a lot of talent, but they’re one of those “I’ll believe it when I see it” teams. Finally there’s the Red Sox, and that is not out of spite. They are a notoriously injured team, with less talent than years past. Maybe if they were in the Central, the Sox might be as high as number two, but it’ll be tough for them to compete in a gauntlet of a division. In other news, I expect the Pirates to FINALLY finish with a winning record for the first time since 1992. The Diamondbacks will be the surprise team in the National League, not only to finish in second in the West over the Dodgers, but to secure a wild card slot as well. The Dodgers are becoming the Yankees of the West, and I don’t mean that as a compliment. They have a bunch of overpaid players, and only a couple of whom are healthy and in their primes (Kemp, Kershaw, Greinke). So to recap, here are my playoff teams: TB, DET, OAK, NYY vs LAA in the American League, and WAS, CIN, SF, ATL vs ARI in the National League.

Statistics
American League
Jeter: .309, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 16 SB                                    
Cano: .311, 34 HR, 105 RBI                                               
CC Sabathia: 19-8, 3.41 ERA     
M. Rivera: 43 S, 1.87 ERA                                           
A Jones: .284, 31 HR, 89 RBI, 17 SB
Pedroia: .298, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 22 SB
Longoria: .309, 37 HR, 116 RBI
Price: 18-6, 3.01 ERA
Reyes: .282, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 39 SB
Bautista: .274, 40 HR, 102 RBI
RA Dickey: 14-11, 3.68 ERA
Mig Cabrera: .323, 38 HR, 121 RBI
Fielder: .297, 35 HR, 113 RBI
A Jackson: .291, 17 HR, 62 RBI, 24 SB
Verlander: 21-7, 2.71 ERA                                                   
M. Scherzer: 16-9, 3.55 ERA
Butler: .309, 26 HR, 97 RBI
Shields: 16-11, 3.56 ERA
Mauer: .318, 12 HR, 77 RBI
Swisher: .265, 25 HR, 80 RBI
Sale: 15-10, 3.31 ERA                                                           
Trout: .312, 27 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB
Pujols: .302, 33 HR, 109 RBI
Hamilton: .286, 34 HR, 111 RBI
Weaver: 18-8, 2.69 ERA
Cespedes: .294, 29 HR, 93 RBI, 18 SB
B Anderson: 17-10, 2.83 ERA
Hernandez: 17-7, 2.43 ERA
Pena: .222, 26 HR, 74 RBI
Beltre: .289, 29 HR, 94 RBI
Darvish: 15-8, 3.72 ERA
National League

Wright: .308, 24 HR, 101 RBI, 21 SB
Hamels: 16-9, 3.11 ERA
Lee: 17-8, 3.01 ERA
Stanton: .281, 39 HR, 102 RBI
Harper: .282, 31 HR, 84 RBI, 22 SB                             
Strasburg: 20-7, 2.72 ERA                                               
J. Zimmerman: 14-8, 2.93 ERA
G. Gonzalez: 16-8, 3.20 ERA
Heyward: .279, 29 HR, 91 RBI, 17 SB
BJ Upton: .264, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 34 SB
J Upton: .304, 27 HR, 95 RBI, 24 SB
Freeman: .281, 32 HR, 107 RBI
Castro: .287, 17 HR, 77 RBI, 31 SB
Votto: .323, 34 HR, 115 RBI                                             
J. Bruce: .268, 36 HR, 101 RBI
Cueto: 18-9, 3.08 ERA
Braun: .318, 38 HR, 119 RBI, 30 SB
McCutchen: .313, 29 HR, 102 RBI, 24 SB
A Craig: .312, 28 HR, 106 RBI
Wainwright: 15-10, 3.35 ERA
M Montero: .291, 22 HR, 86 RBI
P Goldschmidt: .285, 25 HR, 91 RBI, 15 SB
Tulowitzki: .284, 21 HR, 74 RBI, 7 SB
C Gonzalez: .293, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 23 SB
Kemp: .297, 33 HR, 92 RBI, 22 SB
A Gonzalez: .295, 27 HR, 102 RBI
H Ramirez: .278, 22 HR, 65 RBI, 10 SB
Kershaw: 19-6, 2.64 ERA
Greinke: 15-9, 3.18 ERA
Headley: .285, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 14 SB
Posey: .331, 26 HR, 107 RBI
Sandoval: .297, 21 HR, 77 RBI
Pence: .279, 24 HR, 83 RBI
Cain: 17-8, 2.73 ERA
Vogelsong: 15-10, 3.29 ERA
Bumgarner: 15-9, 3.46 ERA

Those are all my stats predictions for the 2013 MLB season. Those enough numbers for you? I feel like I hit on everyone important. We’ll see how close I am! Time to go through all my awards and bold predictions.
Awards
MVP
AL: E. Longoria, 3B, TB
NL: J. Votto, 1B, CIN

CY Young

AL: F. Hernandez, SP, SEA
NL: S. Strasburg, SP, WAS

Coach of the Year

AL: Joe Madden, TB
NL: Kirk Gibson, ARI

Home Run Derby Champion

Bautista, TOR

All Star Game MVP

McCutchen, PIT

Team Stock Up

SEA, CLE, TB, ARI
Team Stock Down

TEX, CWS, TOR, LAD, MIL

Breakout Players

Anderson, A. Cobb, A. Craig, F. Freeman, M. Harvey, N. Walker, A. Simmons

Bold Predictions
  1. TB wins the AL East, Longoria wins MVP
  2. No NYY player hits 30 HR
  3. The longest winning streak by any team will be 17 games
  4. OAK wins AL West over LAA, SEA leapfrogs TEX in standings
  5. PIT ends season with a winning record
  6. WAS will have the best record in the MLB, Strasburg wins CY Young
  7. The fastest pitch by Aroldis Chapman will be over 104.5 MPH
  8. LAD misses the playoffs, ARI takes Wild Card
  9. Max Scherzer leads the MLB in Ks
  10. Jose Bautista leads the MLB in HR
  11. The ATL OF will combine for 75+ HR and 75+ SB
  12. There will be at least 1 notable name suspended for PEDs
  13. A coach will be ejected over 3.5 times
  14. TB will get no-hit this season (my bet: against James Shields and KC)
  15. There will be 4 no-hitters/perfect games
  16. A team will overcome an 8 game deficit down the stretch to make the playoffs
  17. LAA will lead the MLB in runs scored
  18. Mariano Rivera’s last inning will be 1-2-3
  19. Under 3 coaches will be fired during the season
  20. A position player will be the winning pitcher in a game

Playoffs
WC Play-in WC Play-in
LAA 3 ARI 4
NYY 5 ATL 3

ALDS NLDS

NYY     1            OAK  1                                                                                                        SF     2                    ARI  1 
DET     3           TB      3   CIN   3                   WAS  3

ALCS NLCS

TB        4 CIN   1
DET     2                                                                                                                                    WAS 4

World Series

WAS  2
TB     4


My 2013 MLB World Series Champions: Tampa Bay Rays. I think that this is just the year of the Rays. They are the best team in the brutal AL East, and they have the ingredients to win in October: great pitching, timely hitting, and a very smart, savvy manager. Evan Longoria and David Price will take over in October and give this team its first ever World Series title. This is historic for me because, like I said, this is the first time I’ve ever picked against the Yankees. Maybe it’ll be a reverse jinx. Anyway, I can’t wait for another great year of baseball. Good luck to everyone, and let’s go Yankees.