NFL Week 9 Preview

Week 9 Preview

This is virtually the halfway point of the season, with a majority of teams playing their 8th game this week. Playoff pictures are starting to pan out, and there are several surprising contenders making a push (see MIA vs IND). It is also desperation time for many teams out there, which make for some very intriguing match-ups over the weekend. Tampa Bay vs Oakland and Philadelphia vs New Orleans are two examples are each team needing a victory in order to keep their season alive. Fun fact: I picked Cleveland to finish with the worst record in the NFL this year, and while there are a few teams trying their best to make sure I’m wrong (looking at you, Kansas City), I am 8-8 in picking their games this year. I had them beating the Bengals for their first win, and if you look back at my Cleveland Browns preview, I actually had them beating the Chargers back in the preseason. So if you want to bet on a game, listen to what I say about the Browns!!! Let’s look at this week’s games. After struggling last week, hopefully I’m due for a strong performance.

KC vs SD (-8.5) - A battle of underachieving AFC West teams who both stink. Did you know that the Chiefs have not led for a single second for the ENTIRE SEASON?!?!?! How can someone possibly be that bad? Their one win was on a field goal in overtime, so that’s still no time leading. The Chargers, as predicted, are in nap mode. This game is on a short week. How many ways are there to say ugly? I’m taking the Chargers by default but not by 9 points. It will probably be a 6-7 point game. All I really care about is that Bowe and Gates have pretty good games. This is one of those “the only reason this game matters is for fantasy” games. Kansas City 20, San Diego 26.

DEN vs CIN (+3.5) - Peyton Manning has been my favorite player for ten years and that is not stopping because he’s in a new uniform. He has been MVP-like so far, and I expect that to continue. The Bengals just aren’t a great team. The Broncos are looking more and more like they are going to be the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. I’m not ready to go there yet, but they are improving every game. I’ll take Peyton comfortably, but not in a blowout. Denver 27, Cincinnati 16.

BAL vs CLE (+3.5) - Apparently I am a Browns expert. And I think this game will be close. But not close enough. One possession win for Baltimore coming off a bye. That defense needs to get sured up though, they got really bad really fast. Trent Richardson is the real deal. Baltimore 23, Cleveland 17.

ARI vs GB (-10.5) - There’s a new rule I’m abiding by when picking games: NEVER take the Pack to cover a huge spread. I took the Jags and the points last week and I was right on that one. Green Bay is being spotted 10 points and although they are at home, the Cardinals have a pretty good defense and might be able to move the ball this week. The Packers will win, but I’m betting against them with the points here. Arizona 17, Green Bay 27.

CHI vs TEN (+3.5) - I picked this upset preseason. I had the Titans upsetting the Lions earlier this year from preseason and picked against them, but Tennessee ended up winning that game. I haven’t learned my lesson yet. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. So if I get this wrong, I’ll learn never to bet against myself when picking the Titans at home ever again. I’ve been pushing the Bears for months now, and I’m not stopping here. There are three things certain in life: death, taxes, and Cutler to Marshall. Actually there is a fourth: Bears D getting a pick 6. Chicago 27, Tennessee 17.

MIA vs IND (+2.5) - Raise your hand if you had the Dolphins and Colts both sitting at 4-3 coming into Week 9 when the season started. What a coincidence, I don’t see any hands. Both teams are sporting their successful rookie quarterbacks and the winner of this game will be 5-3, and actually have an inside track to the playoffs. What’s even more surprising to me, is how Ryan Tannehill is favored on the road against Andrew Luck! What??? The Dolphins are sneakily good, but Indy is just too strong in their dome. Miami 24, Indianapolis 27.

CAR vs WAS (-3.5) - The Cam Newton bandwagon didn’t last very long, did it? I thought this team would be a playoff contender, but they have really fallen off track. From top to bottom, this has been an unsuccessful franchise since they made the Super Bowl ten years ago, except for the one year they made the NFC Championship Game. RGIII is the new craze, and I think he outplays Cam in this one. The difference is going to be the running game. Carolina 16, Washington 21.

DET vs JAC (+3.5) - UPSET SPECIAL. I only got one of these right last week but overall this season, by upset picks have been pretty spot on, either winning outright or at least beating the spread. The Jags played pretty tough in Green Bay last week and I don’t like the Lions on the road. They will neutralize Megatron, and I think that Jacksonville’s offense will be good enough to score some points. Detroit 17, Jacksonville 20.

BUF vs HOU (-10.5) - History has proven that I hate big spreads. I rarely pick the favorite in these scenarios. However...the Bills can’t stop the run and the Texans live on exactly that. Arian Foster gets 167 and 2 TD. The Bills have given up 45 points multiple times this season, and I smell a blowout here. Buffalo 16, Houston 34.

TB vs OAK (-1.5) - Both of these teams are 3-4 and have had some impressive performances this season. The loser will virtually be out of playoff contention, while the winner will be sitting at .500 with a shot at the postseason. I’ll take the Raiders because they are at home. And that’s the only reason. This is the definition of a straight-up pick’em game. No result would surprise me. Tampa Bay 21, Oakland 24.

MIN vs SEA (-4.5) - Another desperation game! The loser of this battle will not make the playoffs, and while the winner might not either, whoever comes out on top is going to have a winning record. The Seahawks are lethal at home, and I do think they are going to win this game, but this is a tough spread to work with. I’m going to play with fire here: Seattle wins, but either by 3 or 4, which means I’m taking the Vikings and the points. And the Seahawks do go on to make the playoffs. Minnesota 16, Seattle 19.

PIT vs NYG (-3.5) - There’s an annoying amount of 3.5 point spreads this week, which is a nightmare for betting. This game is a heavyweight match-up between two quarterbacks drafted in 2004 who each have 2 Super Bowl rings and are fantastic at converting third downs and are efficient in the fourth quarter. The difference in this one? Still no Polamalu. Giants are on a roll, and they will not let another 23-point lead get away from them again. Pittsburgh 22, New York 27.

DAL vs ATL (-4.5) - This game sucks. I hate both these teams. I want the Falcons to lose so that they are not undefeated, but the Cowboys don’t know how to win close games, which is what Atlanta has been doing all season. Throw in the fact that the Falcons are almost unbeatable at home, and you have a recipe for a blowout. But there’s no way this is an easy win. Dallas might not win many games, but they have enough talent to always hang around, and I think this game will be decided by single digits. Unfortunately for Big D, I think it will be somewhere between 5-9. So the Falcons cover and move to 8-0, and Dallas loses again. Dallas 24, Atlanta 30.

PHI vs NO (-3.5) - I’ve talked a lot about desperation games for this week, and this one is the mother of them all, a shootout on Monday Night. The Eagles are 3-4 and are potentially just one loss away from benching Michael Vick and firing Andy Reid. Meanwhile, the Saints are 2-5 and have been deeply affected by the bounty punishments. If they lose then their season is over; no way they climb out of a 2-6 hole. This one will be very high scoring with neither team wanting to give up. And I like the team that owns the Superdome. The Eagles have one shot of turning their season around: FREE SHADY. This season, Philly is 3-0 when McCoy has 20+ carries, and 0-4 when he has less than that. Those numbers are similar throughout his career. Yet Andy Reid refuses to feed his stud. It’s so frustrating to watch. I think that the Eagles will try throwing too much, and in a shootout, Michael Vick can’t beat Drew Brees. The chaos for the Eagles will continue. Philadelphia 27, New Orleans 38.

Official 2012-2013 NBA Predictions

Official 2012-2013 NBA Predictions

It is the eve of the tip off of the 2012-2013 NBA regular season, and this is the most anticipated year there has been in the Association in a long time. There are fascinating headlines everywhere you look, from the high and mighty Miami Heat, to the lowly Charlotte Bobcats. I did my conference standings already, so this preview is going to be for everything else: awards, breakout players, and, of course, playoff predictions. We’re going to have a full 82 game season this year, which means even more exciting basketball. So, without further ado, let’s get it started.

Playoff Teams

Western Conference

1. San Antonio Spurs: 58-24. People have been calling this team too old for years, but they just keep on winning. Deepest team, top to bottom.
2. Los Angeles Lakers: 56-26. The arrivals of Steve Nash and Dwight Howard will make this a formidable team, but age and lack of depth will prevent them from rising to the top. But when they start clicking, they are loaded.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder: 54-28. I had this team at #1 before the Harden trade. Still will be very competitive, but no longer in the top 2. No MVP for Durant yet.
4. Denver Nuggets: 53-29. A lot of talk about the 4th best team in the West, and I think the Nuggets make that leap. They are deep, young, fast, and talented. Love this team.
5. Los Angeles Clippers: 52-30. A lot of talent on this team, but I think this team is a little too flashy and lacks substance. #1 in highlights, but still #5 in West.
6. Memphis Grizzlies: 50-32. Memphis rounds out the power six of the Western Conference. They have a great starting five, but their one weakness is lack of outside shooting. They can give any team a run for their money though.
7. Utah Jazz: 47-35. Huge up front, with Millsap, Jefferson, Favors, and Kanter. Rumors are one of the starting big men will be traded, and I’ve got my money on Millsap. Not enough guard play yet to vault into second tier.
8. Phoenix Suns: 44-38. It will be another battle for the 8 seed, and I think it will come down to the Suns vs the Warriors. Phoenix may lack a star, but they have a lot of quality role players, who I think will be able gel together nicely. Dragic Nation.

Eastern Conference

1. Miami Heat: 58-24. The only question on this team will be whether or not they can get to 60. I say no. But they are absolutely the favorites to repeat.
2. Boston Celtics: 55-27. This team is the biggest threat to Miami in the East. They are deeper this year, and Rondo is a legit MVP candidate.
3. Indiana Pacers: 54-28. This group broke out last year, and I don’t sense a decline. The success of this team rests on the maturation of Paul George, a star-in-making.
4. New York Knicks: 52-30. Yes, the Knicks. I know. It seems like they always get in their own way of success. Melo is due for a career year in my opinion, and the health of Amare is a question, but that would free up Melo for PF, where he thrives.
5. Philadelphia 76ers: 51-31. Big trade getting Bynum for AI in the Howard deal. Underrated team, I really like Evan Turner this year to break out.
6. Chicago Bulls: 46-36. The loss of Derrick Rose is horrible obviously but this team plays too good defense to not be in the top 8. Watch for Luol Deng.
7. Brooklyn Nets: 44-38. Not blown away by this team. Not a D-Will fan. Gerald Wallace needs to play big. Absolutely a playoff team, not the best team in NY. Yet.
8. Milwaukee Bucks: 42-40. Another exciting race for 8th, and I am beginning to Fear the Deer! Jennings and Ellis make a dangerous backcourt, I really like Ilyasova, and Dalembert is a good interior defender. They finally break through.

Breakouts and Dropoffs

Team Stock Up: DEN, PHX, GS, PHI, MIL, CLE

Team Stock Down: OKC, DAL, HOU, CHI, ATL, ORL

Teams Most Likely to Underachieve: LAC, BRK

Teams Most Likely to Overachieve: PHX, NYK

Dark Horse Lottery Team to Make Playoff Push: POR, TOR

Breakout Players: K. Leonard, K. Faried, E. Bledsoe, G. Hayward, G. Dragic, K. Thompson, any young HOU player, E. Turner, E. Ilyasova, K. Lowry, K. Walker

Dropoff Players: R. Gay, P. Millsap, D. Nowitzki, K. Humphries, D. Harris, J. Kidd

Studs Who Become Stars: S. Ibaka, T. Lawson, P. George, K. Irving, G. Monroe

Good Fresh Starts: A. Iguodala, M. Williams, M. Beasley, J. Terry, A. Jamison

Awards

MVP - It’s probably going to be LeBron. I don’t want it him to win again. He’s won 3 out of 4 and his numbers aren’t going to get worse, so maybe the voters will get bored. I had KD winning when I thought they were #1 in the West, but after the Harden deal I have them 3rd. So now, I’ll call on my dark horse....Rajon Rondo, PG, BOS.

Coach of the Year - George Karl edges out Doug Collins in a tight race.

Sixth Man of the Year: No more Harden in the running, so I’m taking Jason Terry. Big year in Bean Town, he’ll fill in nicely for Ray Ray.

Comeback Player of the Year - If he can stay healthy...the obvious pick here is Brandon Roy. I’m not sure if he can, so if I had a backup pick, I would take Jeff Green (another Celtic, what a surprise). Another strong candidate for this award is Chauncey Billups.

Rookie of the Year: Jared Sullinger! Just kidding, no more Celtics...the easy pick is Anthony Davis, but I don’t want to take the easy way out. So I’m going to select Damian Lillard, PG, POR. I think Bradley Beal will be in the race as well, but Lillard’s team will finish with a better record.

Most Improved Player: The guy I’ve been highest on is Evan Turner, SG/SF, PHI. He was a number two pick and now he can be the man on the wing with AI gone. Also watch out for Klay Thompson and Kenneth Faried. That’s my top 3.

Defensive Player of the Year: I don’t like favorites (Howard), I don’t like repeats (Chandler), and I do like players who have performed that are due for acknowledgement. Therefore...Serge Ibaka, step on down.

League Leaders Per Game (Top 5, in order, with Dark Horse)

Scoring: KD, Carmelo, Kobe, LeBron, Kevin Love (DH: Aldridge)

Assists: Rondo, Nash, Paul, Parker, D-Will (DH: Conley Jr)

Rebounds: Love, Howard, Cousins, Noah, Bynum (DH: Gortat)

Blocks: Ibaka, Asik, McGee, Davis, Hibbert (DH: Biyombo)

Technical Fouls: Cousins, Chandler, Griffin, Bynum, Perkins (DH: Noah)

Playoff Predictions

Western Conference

First Round

                                        8 PHX   1 5 LAC     2 6 MEM    3       7 UTA   1 

                                       1 SA       4 4 DEN    4 3 OKC      4       2 LAL    4

Second Round

                                                    4 DEN      4 3 OKC     3

                                                    1 SA          2 2 LAL      4

Conference Finals

4 DEN     3

2 LAL      4

Western Conference Champions: Los Angeles Lakers

Eastern Conference

First Round

                                       8 MIL    1 5 PHI     3 6 CHI     4       7 BRK     1

                                      1 MIA    4 4 NYK    4 3 IND     2       2 BOS     4

Second Round

                                                      4 NYK     1 6 CHI     2

                                                     1 MIA      4 2 BOS    4

Conference Finals

2 BOS     3

1 MIA     4

Eastern Conference Champions: Miami Heat

NBA Finals

2 LAL     4

1 MIA     2

NBA Champions: Los Angeles Lakers

Recap of Playoff Predictions

So there you go, I have the Los Angeles Lakers defeating the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals this year. The Lakers-Heat matchup is a front-running pick, which I usually hate. However, the Lakers are the most talented team in the West, and I’m a little biased because I want Steve Nash to win a ring more than anything. In the East, I would love if the Celtics dethroned the Heat, but I don’t see it. I think it will once again, though, be a 7-game Conference Finals. Also, a Lakers-Heat match-up is what everyone wants to see; it is the ultimate battle of star power. On one side, you have Kobe Bryant trying to win his 6th ring, tying him with MJ, alongside two ringless, hungry superstars in Nash and Howard. On the other side, Miami is trying to repeat and start a dynasty with their controversial Big Three, also solidifying LeBron James’s place as the best player in the game. I have a couple of upsets in store: Denver beating San Antonio in the second round, and Chicago over Indiana in the first round. I think that the Nuggets will be able to run up and down the floor on the Spurs, and the Bulls pick is going on the basis that Derrick Rose will be back in the starting line-up by that time. Similar to Terrell Suggs’ early return as why I picked the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl this year. I think that the loss of James Harden is going to cost the Oklahoma City Thunder a title shot this year. They can still give LA a run for their money, but I don’t think they have the star power anymore to compete with the Lakers. The Knicks can get to the second round this year, but I still think that if they get matched up with Miami they would lose badly. Kobe Bryant will be the NBA Finals MVP, averaging over 25 points per game. The weaknesses for the Heat are PG and C, and Steve Nash and Dwight Howard will be able to expose those flaws. Now I’ll close with some bold predictions.

Bold Predictions (one per team)

1. ATL - Al Horford will be the best C in the Eastern Conference this year.
2. BOS - Rajon Rondo will win the NBA MVP award.
3. BRK - Brook Lopez leads the Nets in scoring with 21 points per game.
4. CHA - The Bobcats will triple their win total from last season and win the lottery.
5. CHI - Derrick Rose will play at least 25 games this season (including playoffs).
6. CLE - Kyrie Irving will be the starting PG for the East in the All-Star Game.
7. DAL - The Mavs do not make the playoffs and will not have a 20-point scorer.
8. DEN - The Nuggets will be in the Western Conference Finals.
9. DET - Greg Monroe will average 20-10 this year.
10. GS - Klay Thompson will finish in the top 2 on the team in scoring.
11. HOU - Jeremy Lin will average 14-7 but shoot under 40% from the floor.
12. IND - Paul George will average 16 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast, 1.5 stl, and 1.3 3’s per game.
13. LAC - Blake Griffin will have a higher FG% than FT%.
14. LAL - Steve Nash will average 14-11 and will shoot 50-40-90 percentage splits.
15. MEM - Mike Conley Jr will have 9 assists per game this season.
16. MIA - D-Wade will only score 18 ppg but average 5+ reb and ast per game.
17. MIL - The Bucks will make the playoffs, Jennings and Ellis score 20 ppg each.
18. MIN - Ricky Rubio only plays in 45 games this year with only 7 apg.
19. NO - Anthony Davis’s stat line: 14 pts, 8 reb, 2.2 blks per game.
20. NYK - Carmelo Anthony scores 27 points per game, 2nd in the NBA.
21. OKC - KD wins his 4th straight scoring title with 28.6 ppg but still no MVP.
22. ORL - The Magic will have the worst record in the NBA but will NOT win the lottery.
23. PHI - Evan Turner will average 15 pts, 7 reb, 4 ast per game.
24. PHX - The Suns will not have a 20 point scorer but have 4 players average 15+ ppg.
25. POR - Damian Lillard will win the ROY with 16 ppg and 6 apg.
26. SAC - Cousins averages 20-10, Kings get 2nd pick in the draft next year.
27. SA - Kawhi Leonard averages 12 pts, 6 reb, 2 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.7 blks per game.
28. TOR - Kyle Lowry averages 15 pts, 7 ast, 4 reb, 1.2 3’s, 1.3 stls per game.
29. UTA - After Millsap is traded, Derrick Favors will average 15-9.
30. WAS - Bradley Beal will lead the team in scoring with 18 ppg.

There you have it, all of my 2012-2013 NBA Predictions. I don’t know how much of them will be right, but its always fun to look into the crystal ball and guess what will happen. This NBA season is going to be extremely exciting, with more twists and turns than a roller coaster. Good luck to all the teams out there, and may the odds be ever in your favor. Except you, Miami. I hope you get rocked. Comments appreciated!

2012-2013 NBA Western Conference Preview

2012-2013 NBA Western Conference Preview

The Western Conference is going to be a zoo this year. In my eyes, there are six playoffs spots all but locked up already; the regular season will be just about the seeding. The headlines out west are very interesting, from the top of the conference to the bottom. How good will the Lakers be? Can the Thunder win their first championship? Will James Harden be traded or will OKC resign him? Are the Spurs too old to compete? Between the Clippers, Nuggets, and Grizzlies, who will compete with the top dogs? How far will the Mavericks fall? Who will claim the last two playoff spots? Will Linsanity continue in Houston? There are many questions circling this conference, but the most important one there is right now would be: Are we due for a Lakers-Thunder Western Conference Finals? We’ll have to see. Here are my predictions for how the Western Conference standings will shake out.

    1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 59-23

The Oklahoma City Thunder are still incredibly young and super talented. They made the NBA Finals last year and came up short against the Miami Heat, but last year it didn’t seem like this team was ready for the moment. Now they’ve had a taste of what the biggest stage feels like, and they will be hungry for a championship. This team has one of the best home field (or in this case, court) advantages in all of sports and I think we are due for the Kevin Durant MVP season. This team will have the best record in all of basketball, and yes, I do think they hold on to James Harden. They won’t win without him. Even with all the hype in LA, I still think that this is the team to beat in the West.

2. San Antonio Spurs: 58-24

No one ever gives the Spurs any credit for what they do year after year. Do you know what the record was for this team last year? 50-16, tied for the best in the NBA. The core of this team is definitely old, but Greg Popovich manages minutes better than anyone. San Antonio is extremely deep, getting contributions from people like Gary Neal, Danny Green, and Tiago Splitter. I think they will barely miss getting the top seed in the West again, but they won’t mind the number two spot. This is the most balanced team in the NBA from top to bottom.

3. Los Angeles Lakers: 56-26

Contrary to popular belief, I do not think that the Lakers will run all over the Association just they picked up Steve Nash (my favorite player) and Dwight Howard (the biggest crybaby in the world). They have a monstrous starting five with Nash, Bryant, World Peace, Gasol, and Howard, but they lack much bench talent. I think that Steve Nash will have this unit playing effectively and will lead the Western Conference in assists (second in the NBA to Rondo). Kobe will get his, averaging over 25 a game. Howard should be a beast on the inside but will only average probably 15 points a game. The key is Gasol, who is the overlooked weapon in this offense. When he rolls pick and rolls with Nash, he is talented enough to finish at the rim, but also a good enough passer to kick it to the open man. This team will compete at a high level, but I think the three seed in the West is a fair evaluation.

4. Denver Nuggets: 53-29

The number four seed in the West last year was Memphis. The team most people like to be the four seed this year is the Clippers. However, I am a huge fan of the Denver Nuggets this year. This team can run like the wind, and is as deep as anyone. Ty Lawson is possibly the fastest man in the NBA but efficient as well, and the Nuggets still have Andre Miller to run the show as well. They made a huge trade picking up Andre Iguodala in the Dwight deal. They now have someone who can guard the Ginobilis, Hardens, and Bryants of the Western Conference, as well as score, rebound, and assist. Danilo Gallinari is a sniper from the outside, and remember, they get Wilson Chandler back from China this year too. Kenneth Faried is primed to break out; he is a high-energy player who can average 12 boards and over a steal a game. “Manimal” can affect the game without scoring, so watch out when he does. JaVale McGee gets a bad rep for being.....not the brightest bulb in the box, let’s just say. But he is a force on the inside and should average over two blocks a game. We saw flashes of his potential in the playoff series against the Lake Show. I love this team. If they keep this core of players, then in a year or two they will be competing with the Thunder for the Western Conference crown. Look out.

5. Los Angeles Clippers: 52-30

The Clippers finally became relevant again last year and are looking to improve this season. Their season ended in the second round last year when they got dominated by the Spurs. They have reloaded, adding depth all around the roster. CP3 is still leading this team at point, and Eric Bledsoe is a quality backup. Chauncey Billups is out for at least a month, but the signing of Jamal Crawford gives this team a shooting threat. The Clips added Grant Hill and Lamar Odom to their bench, and the “other” LA team still has the highlight show that is Blake Griffin. This team will put up numbers, but to me they are a little too flashy and don’t have enough substance. That’s why I have them at number five. Is Vinny Del Negro the coach to lead this team to the promised land?

6. Memphis Grizzlies: 50-32

The Grizzlies are coming off a season in which they quietly got the number four seed in a loaded Western Conference. The starting five is legit, with Conley, Allen, Gay, Randolph, and Gasol. I think the loss of OJ Mayo to Dallas, though, will be costly, because this team lacks outside shooting. I think they will slip down to 6th in this conference, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t have the power to give the Lakers a run for their money in the first round. But this team lacks depth and perimeter playmakers, and I think that this will be their downfall in the end. I do hope this team succeeds though, I like them a lot and they are a tough out.

7. Utah Jazz: 47-35

The Utah Jazz snuck into the playoffs as the eight seed last year and are an even better team this year. Mo Williams and Gordon Hayward are two underrated guards on a team with a loaded backcourt. The acquired Marvin Williams from Atlanta, who might be refreshed by a change of scenery. Utah sports multiple big men, with the young Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter as backups to starters Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson. There are rumors that one of those men will be subjects of trade talks, and if that is the case I think Millsap would be the one to go, to make room for Derrick Favors. This team could rise up the ranks even more depending on how the guards play. This is a hard-nosed team that should not be overlooked going into this season. The development of Hayward is the key for this team. At SG, he could potentially go 15-5-4. Don’t sleep on the Jazz.

8. Phoenix Suns: 44-38

I am not picking the Suns to make the playoffs just because they are my favorite team. The loss of Steve Nash is going to sting, and now Phoenix is left without a star on the roster. However, I think the collection of talent will be enough to vault them into the eight spot. Like in the Eastern Conference, the battle for the last spot will be heated, but I see too many flaws with teams like Dallas, Golden State, Minnesota, etc. to put them in. Phoenix will still play at a fast place and will be headed by a returning fan favorite, Goran Dragic. Dragic learned under Nash when he first came in the league, and I think he will be more than able to lead this team. On the wings, the Suns have brought in Wesley Johnson and Michael Beasley, and have Shannon Brown and Jared Dudley as backups. Luis Scola and Marcin Gortat will be the starting big men for this team, who can both put up 16 points per game. Markieff Morris and Jermaine O’Neal are the backup big men. This is a group of role players that I think will be able to step up and play well together. Ego will not be an issue. This team is deep and can run with anyone, and I think they will surprise a lot of people and make it to the playoffs.

9. Golden State Warriors: 42-40

This will be an exciting team if they can stay healthy. If Andrew Bogut comes back strong, he will provide the strong interior defense that this team has lacked for a long time. Stephen Curry and David Lee are the two returning starters who can both score very well. With the trade of Monta Ellis, the starting shooting guard job belongs to Klay Thompson, who is a favorite for Most Improved Player. Rookie Harrison Barnes will be the SF, and he is another man who can make it rain from the outside. This team will just miss making the playoffs, but they are improving. NEEDS DEFENSE.

10. Dallas Mavericks: 41-41

This Dallas Mavericks team will be the Phillies of basketball: a team coming off a recent championship that still has talent but is facing a major drop-off out of the playoffs. The only star on this team is Dirk, but he just had surgery and will probably not be the same this year. OJ Mayo can provide outside shooting, but this team resembles nothing of the team who won it all just two years ago. I have them missing the playoffs. They missed out on the Howard and D-Will sweepstakes, and now they are waiting to use their cap money after this year. But Dirk isn’t getting any younger; this team is in danger.

11. Minnesota Timberwolves: 39-43

And the award for fewest black people on an NBA roster goes to...Minnesota! Ricky Rubio is still hurt, and now Kevin Love is going to miss some time. They are relying on a knee-less Brandon Roy, a Russian past his prime (Kirilenko), and former top pick Derrick Williams. Injuries will cost this team the playoffs this year, but by this time next year they should be ready to go to make a postseason push.

12. New Orleans Hornets: 36-46

This team is close to breaking through; I think they are a small forward away from having a complete starting five and if they get one, they could make the playoffs as soon as next year. Austin Rivers is an exciting young guard, and we all know what The Brow can do in the middle. Ryan Anderson is a big man who can drill three’s, and the health of Eric Gordon is vital. Not yet, New Orleans...but your future is bright.

13. Portland Trail Blazers: 33-49

LaMarcus Aldridge deserves better than this. Portland’s success this year depends on how fast their two top draft picks become studs. Damian Lillard and Meyers Leonard are starting at PG and C respectively, and if they can prove themselves quickly then this team will be better than 13th in the West. Wesley Matthews is a shooting guard who has a limited ceiling: about 15 points per game, lots of 3s, and not many contributions in other stat categories. Nicolas Batum is going to have to play big at SF. This team is young like New Orleans, and it will be interesting to see who’s team grows faster.

14. Houston Rockets: 30-52

The Rockets have a boatload of depth, but none of it is really good. The best player on this team is Jeremy Lin, and we’ll see how the NBA reacts to him now that they have tape to look at. Houston is full of first round picks, but none of them right now are starting-caliber. Omer Asik has never been a starter but is a very good interior defender, but overall this team looks like a jumbled mess.

15. Sacramento Kings: 28-54

Sigh. It’s tough to be a Kings fan. The roster isn’t even as bad as it seems even though they lose every year, but something about this team just isn’t right. Maybe it’s the ownership, or coaching, and obviously a lot of blame has to go to the players, but this team has potential every year and just can’t play up to it. DeMarcus Cousins can become one of the best big men in the NBA, but is undisciplined. Isaiah Thomas will be the starting point guard, and perhaps can provide a spark, but this team overall just looks bad. It’s that simple. They are the worst team in the Western Conference.

So there’s my Western Conference standings. Before the season, I’ll do my full preview including playoff predictions, awards, and breakout players.

2012-2013 NBA Eastern Conference Preview

2012-2013 NBA Eastern Conference Preview

The 2012-2013 NBA season is only a few days away, which means that it’s time for my official predictions! I’m splitting it up like this: Eastern Conference first, followed by the Western Conference, and then one final complete preview with playoff predictions as well. There are many headlines for the Eastern Conference this season, such as: Can the Heat repeat as champions? Can the Celtics still compete at a high level? With the Nets moving to Brooklyn, who is the best team in New York? Can the 76ers take the next step with Andrew Bynum at center? Who will grab the last two spots in the playoffs? Will the Bobcats win double digit games this year? All these questions will be answered here. Here’s my predictions for the Eastern Conference standings this year, from top to bottom.

1. Miami Heat: 58-24

The question is not whether or not the Miami Heat will be the number one seed in the East; it is whether or not they can break 60 wins. I say no; there is too much talent in this conference and in the NBA for that too happen. The Heat will be playing lots of primetime games against quality opponents and they still have a huge target on their backs. LeBron James is the easy frontrunner for the MVP award, but I’m not handing out awards just yet. With the acquisitions of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, this team is very deep and filled with veterans. The road to the NBA Finals goes through South Beach, and we’ll see how Miami defends their title. I think that they are the undoubted number one seed in the conference.

        2. Boston Celtics: 55-27

Some people say the Celtics are too old; I say those people are foolish. Doc Rivers is second to none in the coaching business, and this team got even better in the offseason. Boston replaced Ray Allen with Jason Terry and Courtney Lee; Jeff Green is returning from his injury; they got bigger up front by drafting Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo; and of course, they still have the core of KG, Paul Pierce, and Rajon Rondo. I think Rondo is going to have an MVP quality season, but that’s for another time. The Celts are still the biggest threat to Miami in the East, and they could be due for another Eastern Conference Finals this year.

        3. Indiana Pacers: 54-28

This team is legit. They are young, deep, talented, and hungry. They had a chance to put away the Miami Heat in the second round of the playoffs last year but were not ready to put their feet down. Some say that Danny Granger will be involved in trade talks, but for now he is still on the roster and still a threat to drop 20 every night. The success of this team rests on the growth of Paul George, who has the talent to soar in this league. I think 16-6-4 are realistic numbers for him (points, rebounds, assists). We’ll see if they can step up and advance to the ECF this time around.

        4. New York Knicks: 52-30

This is a heart pick, not a head pick. Apparently the offseason approach for the Knickerbockers was to call the NBA nursing home and sign anyone who could still walk. This team has talent all around, and we’ll see how many minutes Carmelo Anthony sees at power forward this season, a place where he loves being. Amare’s health is a concern, as is the inconsistency that is JR Smith, but his team has explosive potential, which is why I have them at the 4 spot in the East.

        5. Philadelphia 76ers: 51-31

The 76ers made a franchise-changing move in the offseason when they participated in the trade to send Dwight Howard to the Lakers. Here’s what they did, in a nutshell: dump Andre Iguodala and receive Andrew Bynum and Jason Richardson. I thought it was a really good trade; Philly traded away an aging wing player to make room for their budding stars, picked up a 3-point stud, and got Bynum, who is immediately the best center in the Eastern Conference. Combine them with Spencer Hawes, Jrue Holiday, and Evan Turner (who I really like this year, picture a 15-6-3 stat line) and this team is an instant contender to maybe even challenge Boston for the Atlantic division crown. The only reason I put them below the Knicks is because of the health issues of Bynum. Even if he is healthy, I think he can be contained by Tyson Chandler, anyway. But this team is looking up.

        6. Chicago Bulls: 46-36

        Not having Derrick Rose for most of the season is going to kill the title hopes for this team in 2012-2013, but even without their superstar they still have enough talent to make the playoffs. The backcourt is iffy, naturally, but this team is built around defense and their frontcourt. Luol Deng (my boy!) will be looked at to carry the scoring load, something I think he can do. Carlos Boozer (possible trade target?), Taj Gibson, and Joakim Noah are three big men who can control the paint, and have decent scoring ability. Quick toss-up: what’s uglier, Noah or his shooting motion? I picked this team to go all the way last season which obviously didn’t work out, but they went 50-16 with a banged up Rose, so they know how to win without him.

        7. Brooklyn Nets: 44-38

I’m not buying all the hype. This team has a very good starting five, but not much else after that. In a loaded Eastern Conference, they will definitely hold their own and be able to compete with the best, but their ceiling can only be so high. I’ve never been a Deron Williams guy, and he would barely crack my top five PG in the NBA right now. Joe Johnson to me has always sort of underachieved, and I think his days of 20+ points per game are over. Wallace is a horse who can affect the game in multiple ways, Humphries is a rebounding machine, and Lopez is a good low post scorer, but none of them are studs. There’s just something about this team that turns me off. They will make the playoffs no doubt, but I think they are only the 4th best team in the Atlantic.

        8. Milwaukee Bucks: 42-40

And the winner for the 8-seed of the East is...Milwaukee! Fear the deer! I think they barely beat out Atlanta to sneak into the playoffs. You can make arguments for the Hawks, the Cavs, the Raptors, and others to get this spot, but I’m feeling the Bucks. In their first full season together, the backcourt of Jennings and Ellis is going to be lethal. I can see them combing for 35-10-15 (pts, reb, ast) on a regular basis. Gooden and Dalembert are proven big men, but the guy I like to complete this team is Ersan Ilyasova, who is a threat to average 15 and 10 with good percentages. He fits kind of like a Luol Deng, the prototypical sidekick who does everything well.

        9. Atlanta Hawks: 41-41

I don’t think .500 is going to get into the playoffs in the East this year. The Hawks made multiple moves in the offseason, the biggest of which was getting rid of Joe Johnson’s contract and getting a lot of quality pieces from the Nets. They swung Marvin Williams for Devin Harris, and signed Lou Williams to be a scoring threat in the backcourt. However, this team is going to have to run through Josh Smith and Al Horford, who are both great players, but what happens when one or even both of them have an off-night? I don’t think there is anyone else to fill that void. That’s why I have them missing the playoffs.

        10. Cleveland Cavaliers: 38-44

Cleveland has become Kyrie Nation, as young point guard Kyrie Irving has immediately become the best player on this team. Irving had a great rookie year, and if he avoids the sophomore slump with heightened expectations, all signs are pointing to an all-star season. The potential is there for 20 points and 7 assists with solid percentages, and contributions with rebounds and steals as well. Irving is a superstar already, and has the potential to be the second best point guard in the Eastern Conference this year, behind Rajon Rondo. Besides Kyrie, the Cavs have a melting pot of role players, who I think will play well enough as a unit to make a solid improvement in wins this season. It won’t be long before this team is pushing for a playoff spot; they have a clear plan going into the future.

        11. Detroit Pistons: 35-47

It wasn’t too long ago that the Pistons were making the Conference Finals every year, but that team is long gone. Only Tayshaun Prince remains of the team that won the title in 2004, and he looks to be on his way out. Detroit has a young backcourt with talent in Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey. Greg Monroe is a very solid big man, and if Andre Drummond matures into a force down low, this team could make the playoffs as soon as next year. Role players like Jonas Jerebko and Corey Maggette are going to have to play well for this team to make a push, but they just don’t have enough talent right now to make legitimate noise in this conference.

        12. Toronto Raptors: 33-49

This team has more talent than people give them credit for, but I think more than anything they suffer from being in a loaded division (potentially four of the top six teams in the East). Kyle Lowry could be a breakout candidate this year and could put up 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists on a regular basis. Terrance Ross and DeMar DeRozan are their two young wing players who will be responsible for putting up a lot of points, something I don’t know if they can do. Andrea Bargnani is a nice piece but does not rebound well, and Jonas Valanciunas is going to have a chance to prove what he can do at center. This group could finish in second place in the Southeast division, but they are going to have to go through the gauntlet if they want to make a push in the Atlantic.

        13. Washington Wizards: 29-53

Wow, how bad is the bottom of the Southeast division? They have the three worst teams in the conference! You know it’s bad when the one credible player for this team (John Wall) is going to be out for at least a month and they are still projected third in their division. Bradley Beal is going to have to step in and be a scoring threat, immediately. This team is not good. At all. But they are still better than these last two sorry excuses for basketball teams.

        14. Charlotte Bobcats: 22-60

BREAKING NEWS: THE BOBCATS WILL NOT BE THE WORST TEAM IN THE HISTORY OF THE NBA THIS YEAR. THEY WILL NOT EVEN FINISH AT THE BOTTOM OF THEIR OWN CONFERENCE. THEY WILL BE ALMOST NOT EMBARRASSINGLY AWFUL. ALL HAIL KEMBA WALKER. THAT IS ALL.

        15. Orlando Magic: 19-63

I hope this team will be this bad. They should not be allowed to win any games. It is embarrassing how they handled the Dwight Howard saga. After letting him drag the franchise around for over a year, making more left turns than a NASCAR race, he finally got his wish and was traded to the Lakers. The Magic had previously turned down a deal for Bynum straight up. They had turned down a package from the Nets for Brook Lopez, other pieces, and a world of draft picks. So the deal they got must have been incredible to justify turning down those other offers, right? I hope the Orlando PA announcers announce their new starting shooting guard like this on Opening Night: “Ladies and gentlemen, the centerpiece of the deal that your front office got for getting rid of Dwight Howard, the new face of this Magic franchise, the shooting guard out of ULCA...Aaaaaaaaaron Afflalooooooooooooo!!!!!!” ......what? The Orlando Magic traded away Dwight and got Aaron Afflalo? I do not want to live on this planet anymore. I hope that the Magic have unheard amounts of bad karma brought to them this year for the trade they made. This was pathetic. They will be the favorites to win the lottery. They will lose it, and whoever they pick is going to be a bust. I’m calling it right now. Orlando will be awful.

Coming up next: Western Conference predictions! Comments appreciated.

NFL Week 8 Preview

Week 8 Preview

Week 7 was average at best in terms of excitement and importance. The early games provided some spark, with the headline game being the battle between RGIII and the clutch machine that is Eli Manning. The nation witnessed a mighty effort from the Jets in New England during Sunday evening, but couldn’t hold off Tom Brady at the end to complete the huge potential upset against the Patriots. Besides that, we learned a little bit: the Bears defense is not going to be pushed around, by anyone; Houston is the unquestioned best team in the AFC right now; the Panthers, Bills, and Jaguars all stink. A lot of the top teams were on bye last week, but Week 8 sports some can’t miss action. Starting with...

TB vs MIN (-6.5) - The Buccaneers have shown some bright spots even though they are only 2-4; Vincent Jackson has been beastly the last few weeks. However, they are running into a Vikings team that is playing very well, and is a home team on Thursday Night. I think that this game follows the trend that its predecessors have left before it: a close, low-scoring game, with the home team coming out on top. Give me the Bucs and the points, but the Vikes win this one straight up. After the Tampa secondary got burned last week, look out for Percy Harvin. Tampa Bay 17, Minnesota 23.

CAR vs CHI (-7.5) - I thought Cam Newton would take the next step this season. I was wrong. The Panthers look horrible, and will probably be getting a top 7 draft pick next April. Meanwhile, I loved the Bears coming into this season, and that prediction is spot on. Chicago is playing as well as anyone in the NFL, and I think they roll in this one, easily. And Over on .5 defensive TDs. Carolina 14, Chicago 31.

SD vs CLE (+2.5) - I have made it well known that I think the Browns will have the number one pick in next year’s draft. However, Brandon Weeden has been a pleasant surprise. I’m not backing off my prediction, but I did call Cleveland’s first and only win of the season against the Bengals a couple of weeks ago. And I’m calling this one as well. Upset Special baby! The Chargers are in hibernation mode as far as I’m concerned; we’ve seen this script far too many times, and I’m jumping on tradition here. Win number two for the Browns, on a Dawson FG. 43 yards. San Diego 21, Cleveland 23.

SEA vs DET (-2.5) - Another pick I will give myself credit for: the fall of the Lions. They were embarrassed on Monday Night by the Chicago defense. Now, on short week, they face the gauntlet that is the Seahawk D. Even though Seattle is not as sharp away from home, I think that this team is legit enough to get a wild card spot, and I am taking them in this game as a “this team is superior but we don’t know if they are for real or not yet so they are technically the underdogs” upset. Seattle 20, Detroit 13.

JAC vs GB (-13.5) - Huge lines scare me. So even though the Pack will roll, I’m not putting money on two TDs (actually I’m not putting money on this either way if I were you). Rashad Jennings runs well enough to control the clock and the Jags score a garbage time TD and Rodgers takes it easy and coasts to the finish line. Give me the Jaguars and the points. Jacksonville 20, Green Bay 31.

IND vs TEN (-3.5) - I’m an Andrew Luck fan. However, the Colts aren’t the same team on the road, and the Titans are playing with momentum, finally looking like the team I picked to go 8-8. The Colts showed against the Jets that they cannot defend the run, and say what you want about Chris Johnson, but he’s coming off a 195 yard, 2 TD game. CJ2K returns to form in this one as well. And no, I’m not just saying that because he’s on my fantasy team. Indianapolis 24, Tennessee 30.

NE vs STL (+6.5) - The Rams play surprisingly well at home, but facing the Patriots’ offe......wait, this game is in London? The NFL hasn’t scrapped that yet? Really? Ok. So...I think the Pats can win by a touchdown, don’t you? Tough luck for the people of St. Louis, they could have used a good football game to get over the sting of their baseball team choking. New England 31, St. Louis 13.

MIA vs NYJ (-2.5) - The Dolphins are underrated and rested. The Jets missed an opportunity to grab this division by the balls up in New England and need this game going into the bye. 4-4 is much better than 3-5. I think they can get the job done. They showed some good signs last week. At least Tebowmania has died down so far for the most part, right? Miami 20, New York 23. Another possible OT game.

ATL vs PHI (-2.5) - Nothing like the only undefeated team in the NFL getting picked as underdogs against a collapsing, desperate team, right? Something has got to give in this game: the Falcons’ undefeated record, or Andy Reid’s 13-0 mark coming off a bye, which is still ridiculous. I don’t trust the Falcons, and if the Eagles can’t win this game, then they will not make the playoffs. There’s not more time for excuses for this team. FREE SHADY, Andy! Please! Atlanta 27, Philadelphia 31. Big time win.

WAS vs PIT (-5.5) - This is a very intriguing game. Nothing like an offensive juggernaut being led by the phenom going up against the historically intimidating Steeler D in a game which the loser could very well be knocked out of playoff contention. And you know what? I like RGIII in this game. Pittsburgh is not the same without Polamalu in the line-up, and I think that will cost them. If the Redskins defense can force a couple of turnovers, its game over. Upset Alert number two for this week (and I’m still not done!). Washington 27, Pittsburgh 23.

OAK vs KC (-1.5) - Brady Quinn. That’s what it’s come down to for the Chiefs that I thought would make the playoffs. They have just been absolutely atrocious this year. But you know what? Notre Dame is undefeated. Golden Tate was the face of the Fail Mary. Harrison Smith had a pick-6 last week for the Vikings. This might just be some crazy Notre Dame voodoo year or something where good things happen. And the Raiders were incredibly lucky that the Jaguars suck, because they should have lost last week. If the Chiefs can’t win this one, they should be excommunicated or something. Off a bye, I think Jamaal Charles is going to run wild. Oakland 20, Kansas City 26.

NYG vs DAL (+1.5) - The Giants have been waiting for this game for a long time. They know what Jerry Jones said before the season about kicking the Giants’ asses when they came to Big D. They know they lost at home to this team Week 1. They know that the Cowboys are beatable and self-destructive. They know that LB Sean Lee is out for the season, and DeMarco Murray will not be there to run the football. They know that they have NEVER LOST IN THIS STADIUM. And they know the whole country is going to be watching them because it will be the nationally broadcasted Sunday evening game on FOX. Hammers shall be dropped. I heard that there is a 20% chance of rain in Big D, with an 100% percent chance of salsa. New York 34, Dallas 19.

NO vs DEN (-6.5) - The Saints have won two in a row after their 0-4 start and get interim coach Joe Vitt back this game. But they are going into the lion’s den. Last time we saw Peyton Manning, he was wiping away 24 point leads on Monday Night Football, and has had a week of rest since then. You think he doesn’t know that it was the Saints who beat him in the Super Bowl a few years ago? You think he doesn’t know that Who Dat nation is in a world of hurt right now? You think he doesn’t know that this Saints defense has the chance to be the worst, ever? This game is first to 40. And I never bet against Peyton Manning. However, I also never bet that Drew Brees will be outscored by a full touchdown. New Orleans 35, Denver 41.

SF vs ARI (+6.5) - Time for my third Upset Special of Week 8! Yes, I do think that the 49ers are better than the Cardinals, and that they will make the playoffs while Arizona will not. However, crazy things happen between these two teams on Monday Night. The Cardinals have lost three in a row, and they need a win to keep their season from falling apart. They are at home. Against a division rival. In a must-win scenario. With a really good defense. On national television. Remember, John Skelton did go 7-2 down the stretch with this team last year. A touchdown line is way too high, no matter who you think is going to win this game. I think the Cards put up one final stand and keep their season alive. San Francisco 23, Arizona 24.

NFL Week 7 Preview

Week 7 Preview

Week 5 might have been the best week of the season so far, with seven games being decided by 3 points or less. There were epic comebacks and collapses, some devastating injuries (to my Super Bowl pick!!!!!!!), and some dominating performances (NYG at SF, Aaron Rodgers’ 6 TD). The entire AFC East is 3-3, and the AFC as a conference has looked horrible, with only two teams above .500: the Texans who got humiliated on Sunday Night at home, and the Ravens who just lost Ray Lewis. The NFC has been dominant, with teams like the Seahawks, Vikings, and Redskins all greatly improved. With so many teams hovering at 3-3, Week 7 is the week when the world will see who are contenders, and who are pretenders. There are some intriguing teams on bye this week: the Chargers, who just blew a 24 point halftime lead to the Broncos, also on bye; the Eagles, who blew a late 10 point lead at home and panic-fired Juan Castillo; and the undefeated Falcons, who have escaped with wins for three straight weeks now. Even with these polarizing teams off, there are still plenty of wild match-ups. Let’s take a look at them.

SEA vs SF (-7.5) - Thursday Night games are always crazy, and we’ve seen that for two straight weeks now (Rams over undefeated Cardinals, Titans over Steelers). What’s the common denominator in these games? The unexpected winners were at home. Home teams win on Thursday Night. So I’m picking the 49ers here. However, a 7.5 spread is ridiculous. This is a Seahawk team with arguably the best defense in the league, facing off against the best defense from last year. They just beat the Patriots, albeit at home. This is going to be a tough, physical match-up, and I think that the first team to 20 points wins the game. Whoever comes out of this game on top will have the inside track to the division title and possibly a first round bye. It would be a huge statement to the NFL if the Seahawks are victorious. No way San Fran beats the 7.5; give me the Seahawks and the points. Seattle 16, San Francisco 20.

TEN vs BUF (-3.5) - The Titans are coming off a last-second Thursday Night win over the vaunted Steelers to improve their record to 2-4, and we finally have a Chris Johnson sighting! The Bills, meanwhile, proved last week that they can win on the road by beating the Cardinals in overtime, while the defense looked much better. Buffalo is 3-3 and have a home game against an inferior opponent. If they want to take the next step as a team, these are the kind of games you have to win. I’m taking them, and if the Bills lose this game, they are officially pretenders. Tennessee 21, Buffalo 28.

CLE vs IND (-3.5) - The Browns got their first win of the season last week (as predicted by me), and now come to Indy. The Colts may have been emotionally drained after their dramatic win against the Packers, because they went to New York and got smacked down by the Jets. This run defense has been horrid, so if Trent Richardson is healthy, he could be due for a big day. However, I think that the Colts will be back to normal and fired up in front of the Indy fans, and Andrew Luck will have a nice bounce-back game. Chuckstrong. Cleveland 20, Indianapolis 30.

GB vs STL (+5.5) - So here’s our first home dog...being given 5.5 points against a Packers team that looked impressive for the first time last week in their win against Houston. The Rams are 3-0 at home, beating the Cardinals, the Seahawks, and the Redskins. As much as I would like to take the Rams and the points, I find it hard to believe that Aaron Rodgers can’t go into St. Louis and outscore Sam Bradford by a touchdown. This game makes me a little nervous, but I’m still going to ride with the pack. 10 point game: Green Bay 24, St. Louis 14.

ARI vs MIN (-5.5) - This is a match-up of a couple of surprising 4-2 teams coming off losses. The winner will be 5-2 and have a real shot at the playoffs; the loser will be 4-3 and looks like they are falling back to earth a little bit. I’m more of a believer in the Vikings. Christian Ponder is better than John Skelton, AP is light years ahead of whoever the Cards have at RB, and Percy Harvin has been a beast. There are two solid defenses in this game, but the Vike’s defensive line at home will be juiced up to get after this Arizona offensive line that has looked like tissue paper. Vikings win, and they cover the spread. Arizona 19, Minnesota 27.

WAS vs NYG (-6.5) - This is a very questionable line. The Giants went into San Francisco and dominated the 49ers on Sunday, but Big Blue should NEVER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES be favored to win by a touchdown or more at home. Especially against a division rival. Especially when the opposing team beat the Giants twice last year. With Rex Grossman. The quarterback for the Redskins is Robert Griffin the Third. I don’t have an upset special this week, but if I had to choose an upset, this is the game that makes the most sense. I’m taking the Giants to win. But there is no way I have them by a touchdown or more. This is what the G-men do: look incredible on the road against a top team, and then come home and struggle as the favorite. At least 1 rushing TD for RGIII, 350+ yards for Eli. Washington 27, New York 31.

NO vs TB (+2.5) - Before the season, this game looked like a potential huge match-up in the NFC South: a test for the decimated Saints on their path to stick it to the commissioner, and a statement game for the young Bucs looking to prove themselves. Now, this game doesn’t really have any playoff implications, as the Falcons are in control of the division, and these teams both have losing records. I want to take the Buccaneers in this battle, but I don’t have the stones. Give me Brees after a bye week. But watch out for Vincent Jackson. New Orleans 27, Tampa Bay 20.

DAL vs CAR (+2.5) - I thought that Cam Newton and the Panthers would take the next step this year and even push to win the division. Early in the season, I already have no hope for them. They look ugly. This team did have a win in Atlanta all but locked up before blowing it in heartbreaking fashion. It’s Cam or bust, and he has not performed well in his sophomore season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys had an improbable win in their grasp against the Ravens, and choked it away as only they could. That began a five game stretch that includes at CAR, vs NYG, at ATL, at PHI. I think that they will only win one of those games, and it’s this one. The Panthers have completely underwhelmed in 2012, and this Dallas team needs a win. They’ll get it here. With no Murray, Romo is due for a big game. Cowboys get TDs, Panthers get FGs. Dallas 28, Carolina 16.

BAL vs HOU (-6.5) - I had this game starred as the most important match-up of the 2012 NFL season. These are absolutely the two best teams in the AFC, and the winner of this game will be the number one seed (in my opinion). Both teams have suffered enormous losses lately: Ray Lewis and LaDarius Webb for the Ravens, and Brian Cushing for the Texans. Haloti Ngata is also banged up, but there are rumors that T-Sizzle might play in this game. The return of Terrell Suggs was the reason I picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl this year, but if Ray Lewis is out...yikes. I’ve got the Texans at home in this one straight up but not with the spread; give me the Ravens and the points. This has the makings of the top game of the week. Baltimore 24, Houston 27.

JAC vs OAK (-4.5) - This is the ugliest game of the week, so I’ll make it fast. The Jaguars stink. They are traveling across the country. The Raiders are at home. Carson Palmer should have a big game. Taking the silver and black. Jacksonville 13, Oakland 19.

NYJ vs NE (-10.5) - Really? Ten and a half points? The Patriots are a better team than the Jets and are at home coming off a loss, but I think this game stays in the single digits. The Jets are going to pull out all the stops and will do anything possible to win this game. These teams hate each other, and it is going to be a fight from beginning to end. I’m taking the Pats to win this game because they are superior, but do not count the Jets out. This one is coming down to the 4th quarter. New York 23, New England 27.

PIT vs CIN (+2.5) - I have made it clear that I am not a believer in the Bengals. I have also made it clear that I did not think that the Steelers would make the playoffs. I’m hoping this one is a tie, because I don’t want either of these teams to win. There is still no Polamalu for Pittsburgh, and AJ Green is tearing up the league. You can make the case that the Bengals will win this game and move to 4-3. I hope they do win, because they won’t be great in the long run, and I want the Steelers as down as possible. But I don’t see it. This game will be nasty, it will be close, and I think it comes down to Big Ben performing his third down magic and keeping the Bengals defense on the field. Give me Pittsburgh 23, Cincinnati 20.

DET vs CHI (-5.5) - I LOVE the Bears this year, and I have ever since the Brandon Marshall trade. I’m down on the Lions. I think you know where this one is going. The Bears own Monday Night, and this team will be ready after a bye to dominate and show the league their potential. Cover city. Detroit 17, Chicago 31.