Official 2014 NFL Predictions

              The brand new NFL season is upon us, and therefore it’s time for my 2014 NFL predictions! In the past, I’ve done team by team previews but this time you’ll only have to read one huge piece that will go over records, stats, bets, and of course, playoff predictions. 2013 was the year of Peyton Manning until the Seahawks put on a dominating show in the Super Bowl. Who do I think will still be playing in January for a chance to win the Lombardi Trophy this time around? Let’s get right to it, with my standings predictions.

AFC

West                                         North                                                South                             East

DEN   12-4                             PIT      10-6                               IND    11-5                       NE      11-5

SD       10-6                            BAL    9-7                                  TEN   8-8                         NYJ    9-7

KC       6-10                            CIN     8-8                                  HOU   7-9                       MIA    8-8

OAK   4-12                             CLE    5-11                                 JAC    5-11                       BUF    6-10

NFC

West                                         North                                                South                              East

SEA    11-5                             GB      11-5                                  NO      12-4                     PHI     9-7

ARI     10-6                           CHI     10-6                                 TB       8-8                      WAS   8-8

SF       9-7                             DET    9-7                                    ATL    7-9                       NYG   7-9

STL     7-9                            MIN    6-10                                  CAR    6-10                    DAL    6-10

            My playoff predictions will be at the end of the post, but here are all my regular season projections for the 32 teams. Some notable results are a lot of the second place finishers in their respective divisions: the Jets, Titans, Cardinals, Bucs, and Washington. The Steelers and Saints are the only new division winners. A few teams that are one year away from being competitive are Buffalo, St. Louis, Minnesota, and Jacksonville. Keep an eye out for them in 2015.

Player Predictions

Arizona Cardinals: Many people are calling for the breakout of Andre Ellington, but I think that Michael Floyd will make the biggest leap this season, outperforming Larry Fitzgerald with 70+ receptions, 1,000 yards, and 7-8 TDs.

Atlanta Falcons: Paul Worrilow will finish top 5 in tackles in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens: Torrey Smith will have 75 receptions, 1,250 yards, and 8 touchdowns, while Justin Tucker leads the NFL in field goals made.

Buffalo Bills: CJ Spiller tops 1,500 yards from scrimmage, but Fred Jackson still has more TDs. Sammy Watkins, sure to be great in the future, will have at most five touchdowns.

Carolina Panthers: D/ST in fantasy will drop out of the top 10.

Chicago Bears: Matt Forte will fall just shy of 2,000 yards from scrimmage, and Jay Cutler will throw for less than 12 interceptions.

Cincinnati Bengals: No one besides AJ Green will have more than 6 receiving TDs. Vontaze Burfict racks up over 150 tackles again.

Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel will start 8 games this season. In those games, the Browns will be 3-5. Manziel: 13 pass TDs, 3 rush TDs, 11 turnovers.

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys will have the worst defense. Ever. Therefore, Romo will throw for 4,200 yards and 30 TDs, 14 to Dez Bryant.

Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning will NOT throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns again. 4,500 yards and 37 TDs sounds about right, with 14 picks.

Detroit Lions: Joique Bell will have more rushes, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, and total TDs than Reggie Bush.

Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, and Jordy Nelson all finish top 4 at their fantasy position this year. Lacy rushes for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. Neither Clay Matthews nor Julius Peppers will get to 10 sacks, but the Pack will lead the NFL in interceptions.

Houston Texans: Clowney and JJ Watt combine for 22 sacks. DeAndre Hopkins will have more TDs than Andre Johnson.

Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck throws for 4,000 yards, 28 touchdowns plus a couple of more rushing, and finishes third in the MVP voting (but first in my heart).

Jacksonville Jaguars: The defense is ranked in the top half of the league. Toby Gerhart rushes for 1,000 yards, and Blake Bortles will lead this team to the playoffs within the next three years.

Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles regresses in almost all of the significant statistics, and this team will have a turnover margin of +5 or worse.

Miami Dolphins: Olivier Vernon will out-sack Cameron Wake 11 to 9.

Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater starts at least 4 games and will have twice as many TDs as INTs. Cordarrelle Patterson will be the latest Norv Turner beneficiary, finishing with 72 receptions, 1,289 yards, and 10 total TD.

New England Patriots: Three-part prediction: Shane Vareen leads all RB in receptions, and gets 1,200 total yards and 10 total TD; Rob Gronkowski plays at least 14 games, and catches at least 14 TD; Chandler Jones will lead the NFL in sacks and will finish in the top three of Defensive Player of the Year voting (maybe even winning it!).

New Orleans Saints: Defense finishes in the top 5 overall and in turnovers forced. Mark Ingram will rush for 8 touchdowns.

New York Giants: Eli Manning will throw for less than 15 interceptions but also less than 25 touchdowns. Reuben Randle leads the team in TDs.

New York Jets: Geno Smith throws 22 TD and runs for four more. Combined with under 15 turnovers and a top 5 defense, they make the playoffs!

Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr will only win 4 games as a starter but will prove he belongs with 20-25 touchdown passes. Rookie Khalil Mack (from the UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO!!!!!!!!!!!!!) records double-digit sacks.

Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Foles will not throw for more than 27 touchdowns or less than 10 interceptions. Jordan Matthews will have over 50 receptions and will be the number one receiver by next season.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Antonio Brown leads the NFL in receptions, while Ryan Shazier wins defensive rookie of the year with over 130 tackles.

San Diego Chargers: Ladarius Green has more receiving TDs than Antonio Gates, but not receptions or yardage. Keenan Allen will almost replicate his rookie season, with about a 70-1,100-8 split.

San Francisco 49ers: Carlos Hyde finishes with more TD than Vernon Davis (we’ll see if that’s a good or bad thing), Michael Crabtree records 80 catches and 8 touchdowns, and the defense will fall out of the top 8 or so.

Seattle Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch has one more year of 1,200 and 12 in him, and Earl Thomas has more INTs than Richard Sherman. Percy Harvin will not lead the team in any receiving categories.

St. Louis Rams: Defense will lead the league in sacks and finish in the top 3 overall, but the offense will rank no better than 25^th.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Doug Martin will not get to 700 rush yards or 5 touchdowns. The defense will be top seven and Lavonte David will win Defensive Player of the Year in year one of Lovie Smith.

Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker, if healthy, will have 3,000 passing yards and 25 total TDs. Justin Hunter will lead the team in receiving touchdowns.

Washington: Robert Griffin III will have 4,000 total yards and 25 touchdowns. Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson each have 1,000 yards and 5+ touchdowns. Future Pro Bowler: Trent Murphy, keep an eye out for him.

Playoff Predictions

AFC

1^st Round: New York Jets 17, Indianapolis 27; San Diego 24, Pittsburgh 21

2^nd Round: San Diego 31, Denver 28; Indianapolis 27, New England 34

AFC Championship: San Diego 20, New England 26

            NFC

1^st Round: Arizona 13, Green Bay 27; Chicago 31, Philadelphia 30

2^nd Round: Chicago 24, New Orleans 34; Green Bay 24, Seattle 23

NFC Championship: Green Bay 20, New Orleans 24

Super Bowl

New England 24, New Orleans 27

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

            I’ve been thinking it for months now, and I’m sticking with my gut: the New Orleans Saints will win the Super Bowl, giving Drew Brees his second ring. However, I think the defense will have a much more important role than people realize. Cameron Jordan is a monster pass rusher, and the they run out arguably the league’s best safety duo outside of Seattle in Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd. They were already one of the best units in the NFL, even without scoring a single touchdown on defense and special teams last year. Drew Brees will have his usual historic season, utilizing more outside speed this time around with Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills. Their regular season schedule is relatively easy, and I think being able to secure home field in the daunting NFC is a HUGE advantage in making a Super Bowl run. I think that the New Orleans Saints are the most complete team in the NFL this year, and that’s why I think they will finish the season by lifting the Lombardi Trophy.

Bets

            I’ve saved the best section of the predictions for last! Even though I’d be able to do it, I want to wait until I start my career to actually put money down on these bets, but the following are the wagers I’d consider making. Remember, many of these will be VALUE bets, not necessarily what I think will definitely happen. So without further ado, here are my favorite bets that I’ve found, courtesy of sportsbook.com.

·      Jordy Nelson over 1400 receiving yards (+600)

·      Antonio Brown over 100 yards receiving in at least 7 games (+800)

·      Drew Brees throws for 300 yards every game (+12500!!!!!)

·      First Coach Fired: Dennis Allen, OAK (+450)

·      Worst Team: Dallas Cowboys (+1800) – If Romo’s back acts up…

·      Defensive Player of the Year: Lavonte David (+2000), Earl Thomas (+3500), Chandler Jones (dark horse)

·      Defensive Rookie of the Year: Khalil Mack (+700), Ryan Shazier (+1000)

·      Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jordan Matthews (+1200)

·      MVP: ANDREW LUCK (+1500) – Think Rodgers (+500) will win

·      To Win the Super Bowl: Saints (+1100), Colts (+2800) – Maybe Andrew Luck is just better than everyone at football

·      Possible Super Bowl Matchups: SAINTS vs. PATRIOTS (+2500!!!!!), Packers/Saints vs. Colts (+8000)

            That’s going to finally wrap up my official 2014 NFL predictions post. I’ll be back soon to once again start my weekly column of picking games with the point spread, a task I’ll hopefully improve on from last year. To recap, here are the things you should be looking for this football season: Denver and New Orleans will be the top seeds in each conference; the Steelers, Jets, Cardinals, and Bears will be the new teams in the playoffs; things to watch out for in the future: Jordan Matthews, Trent Murphy, the Jags with Blake Bortles; the breakouts of Shazier, Patterson, and Chandler Jones; the semi-breakouts of Michael Floyd, DeAndre Hopkins, and Shane Vareen; Before losing to the Saints in the NFC Championship, Aaron Rodgers will play the game of his life in Seattle to take down the Seahawks; My big sleeper pick: look for the Chargers to make the AFC Championship Game! I don’t know why I agree with Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal on this, but it feels right. I may hate them, but the Patriots will be great this year, especially Vareen, Gronk, Jones, and Revis; and, of course, the New Orleans Saints will be your Super Bowl Champions. Enjoy the season!

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

We’ve finally made it. Tonight, a champion will be crowned, and another team will be added to the immortal ranks of Super Bowl winners. After a wild season, the final chapter of 2013 in the NFL will not be shocking, no matter the result of the game. The Broncos and the Seahawks were the two best teams in their respective conferences all year long, and their clash will provide us with nothing short of a powerhouse duel. A historic offense will will try to defeat a terrifying defense, although people seem to forget that only accounts for half the game. But with respect to Seattle’s offense and Denver’s defense, the most captivating part of this battle will be, of course, Peyton Manning trying to figure out Richard Sherman and the relentless D of the Seahawks. Every aspect of this game will be accounted for in this preview, including my pick, statistical predictions, and my favorite prop bets, but first a few thoughts about the Conference Championship Games.

On the AFC side, Denver dominated New England. There’s no simpler way to say it. They had the ball forever, they could run and pass at will, and Peyton Manning rarely missed a throw. The Broncos’ defense held Tom Brady to three points until the fourth quarter, including shutting down the running game that had yielded SIX touchdowns for the Pats the week before. One important note about this game: I didn’t think the Welker hit on Aqib Talib was a dirty play. People are only whining about it because Talib was sidelines afterward, which did, admittedly, impact the rest of the game; did you see Demaryius Thomas go off right after that? But Welker’s play wasn’t as dirty as people made it out to seem. He did make a surprisingly hard hit for a wide receiver, but it was a pick play, and football is a physical sport. I wouldn’t have minded if it was called a penalty, but it would have been for offensive pass interference, NOT unnecessary roughness. Either way, the Broncos dismantled the Patriots and deserve to be here.

The 49ers-Seahawks game lived up to the hype and exceeded it. This was as close a perfect game of football as you can get. Each team was physical and determined from the opening kick, and every moment of all four quarters was thrilling. Kaepernick ran wild; Marshawn Lynch went Beast Mode; Kaep had a ridiculous jump-throw to Boldin for a TD; Wilson followed that up with a gorgeous 4th and 7 strike to Kearse to take the lead; NaVorro Bowman gave his knee trying to make a play; and in the end, Richard Sherman had the last laugh with an incredible play. The final score was 23-17, a defensive struggle that also saw its share of scoring thanks to some dynamic plays. Kaepernick, although he did play a hell of a game, did finish it off with fumble-interception-interception on his final three drives in a one-score game, something that did make me very happy. However, much respect has to be given to him and San Francisco as a team; although they haven’t won the Super Bowl, they have made the NFC title game (or beyond) for three consecutive years, which is a phenomenal achievement in a league that is supposed to have parity. And of course, I have one final thought about what everyone was talking about: the Richard Sherman outburst, while shocking, was completely overblown. Did he handle that moment the way you would want your child to handle it? No. But confidence is what he is about; he will never shy away from anything, and two minutes beforehand he made the play to send his team to the Super Bowl. After three hours of battling the team and specifically player (Crabtree) that he has a huge rivalry with. He is not a bad person, a thug, or any term you wish to use. He is arrogant, but if that is someone’s worst quality, is it really so much of a problem? Speaking of arrogance, let me show off some of the predictions I had for this game. The first numbers will be my guesses, followed by the actual results.

Wilson: 16-24, 202 yds, TD, fumble; 16-25, 215 yds, TD, fumble

Kaepernick: 14-26, 176 yds, TD, 2 INT; 14-24, 153 yds, TD, 2 INT

Final Score: SEA 24-17; SEA 23-17

Let’s just say I’m coming into the Super Bowl on a roll. And now, onto the big game.

I’ve thought about a lot of ways how to do this, because I want to throw a lot of different predictions about this game into my preview. Although I wanted to leave some suspense for the end before revealing my pick, I figure that all my stat and prop predictions would make a lot more sense if you already knew the big picture. So, without further ado, here is my pick for Super Bowl XLVIII...

SEA vs DEN (-2.5) - That’s right, I think the DENVER BRONCOS will win the Super Bowl tonight, in the absolutely incredible battle that everyone is hoping it will be. Historically, logic says you should pick the number one DEFENSE over the number one offense, but I’m not making this pick with my head. I picked Denver to win it all before the season, but more importantly, Peyton Manning has been my favorite football player for 10 years now, and I would want more than anything for him to win his second ring. If the Seahawks do win, I’ll be disappointed, but not angry; I still do like Seattle a lot, and would be fine if they won, so long as it wasn’t the Patriots or 49ers hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Peyton Manning has owned the season ever since christening it with seven touchdowns on opening night. He just won his FIFTH MVP award, after setting records for passing yards, passing touchdowns, and points scored in a single season. The line on this one is only two and a half points (although a real argument could be made that Seattle should be favored), which made it easy for me to pick them to cover as well. So now that you know you I’m picking to win, I’ll give you all my other predictions right now, and cap it all off with a recap later. Go Broncos! Seattle 20, Denver 27

Stats

Manning: 26-41, 303 yds, 2 TD, INT

Wilson: 18-32, 223 yds, TD, INT, 18 rush yds

Moreno: 18 rush, 71 yds, TD, 3 rec, 14 yds, TD

Lynch: 25 rush, 87 yds, TD

D Thomas: 5 rec, 72 yds, TD

Decker: 6 rec, 107 yds

Welker: 4 rec, 46 yds, 3 third down conversions

J Thomas: 3 rec, 22 yds

Baldwin: 6 rec, 82 yds

Tate: 5 rec, 66 yds

Harvin: 2 rec, 18 yds

Kearse: 2 rec, 31 yds, TD

Prater: 2/2 FG, 31 and 49

Hauschka: 2/2 FG, 26 and 35

Here are my offensive statistical predictions for you, as defense is too random to guess for specific players. However, I will say that Manning’s interception will NOT be made by any of the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom secondary; it will come on either A) a tipped-up ball by a defensive lineman, or B) a linebacker that showed blitz but dropped into coverage. Richard Sherman will be limited because the Broncos will move Thomas around so it won’t be one-on-one the whole night; the man in the secondary to watch is Earl Thomas, a just-as-talented-but-much-quieter safety. As far as the receivers go, I think Demaryius Thomas will get in the end zone tonight, but not have the best statistical performance on the team because he will be shadowed by the aforementioned Sherman throughout. I think the best bet out of the Denver receivers to get to 100 yards is Decker, who hasn’t had a huge playoff performance yet. I think Percy Harvin will be a relative non-factor for the Seahawks, along with the weather everyone has been so obsessed with, although he will be used as a decoy. Each of these teams has a superb rush defense, which is why I think both main running backs will be held under 100 yards in this game--this is a much bigger deal for Seattle, as so much of their offensive success comes from running the ball. Even though I have Lynch getting into the end zone, I think he fails to hit triple digits and is held under four yards a carry. Moreno will have the same limited success against the vaunted front seven of the ‘Hawks, but I do think he finds the end zone twice, once on the ground and the other in the air, which would have made him a great pick for MVP if it wasn’t destined to go to Manning in the event of a Denver victory. As for the QBs, I think Wilson, for as great as he’s been in two years, will be a little rattled out of the gate. He’ll be off-target the first time he’s faced with a third and long. He is a very poised and confident young man, but this is quite a big stage, and I think he struggles in the first quarter before turning it on in the second half. And now to Peyton. I think that he will have a little trouble figuring out Seattle’s secondary, but he’s too good to stop forever. He throws it enough times to get to 300 yards, but will turn it over once. He will have exactly two touchdowns, the first to Thomas, and the second to Moreno late in the fourth quarter to break a 20-20 tie and win the game. But more on that later.

Props

This is the very fun part of making Super Bowl predictions: prop bets! You can bet on anything from the length of the National Anthem, the result of the coin toss, what color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach, and who the Super Bowl MVP will thank first in his speech. I’m going to go through my favorites, some important and some just for fun.

1. UNDER 47.5 points: I think this will be a relatively low scoring game, like the SF-SEA game a couple of weeks ago. My predicted score was 27-20, giving us 47, but that is the absolute highest I think the score can go. Seattle will score around 20, but as good as Peyton is, I don’t think he gets to 30 against this defense. Under 47.5 is the way to go here, especially since both teams like to extend drives and eat up clock on their possessions.
2. Percy Harvin UNDER 3.5 receptions (+135): I don’t think he’ll be a big factor tonight.
3. Knowshon Moreno WILL score a touchdown (+110), or even better, Moreno to score the LAST touchdown (+800)
4. Eric Decker OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115), and between 101-110 (+1500)
5. Virgil Green will have AT LEAST ONE reception (+120): Cousin Sal talked about this on the BS Report will Bill Simmons last week, and I think this one comes true.
6. Doug Baldwin +15.5 receiving yards vs Wes Welker (-105): I think he’ll have more straight up, and he’s getting 16 yards against a short yardage receiver facing a suffocating D?
7. Super Bowl MVP: obviously, I would say Peyton Manning (+110), because I think he’s going to win, but some value bets are Moreno (+1700), Lynch (+450), and how about Trindon Holliday (+8000) in case there is special teams magic?
8. ORANGE (+275) or RED (+750) for the color of the Gatorade bath.
9. Jermaine Kearse OVER 11.5 yards on first catch (+110): Because this was the only Kearse prop I could find.
10. Peyton Manning passing yards between 301-320 (+800): I think by volume and the plethora of weapons around him, Manning barely eclipses 300 yards, putting a nice bow on a Super Bowl victory.

So if you are going to bet (my 21st birthday is on Wednesday, so I’ll be very excited for next year’s props), these are the wagers that I would target. Prop bets are a lot of fun, because you get to sit there with your family and friends shouting things like “GET OFF YOUR ASS, VIRGIL GREEN!”, or if you’re feeling really bold and unpatriotic, “HURRY UP WITH THE ANTHEM I NEED IT TO BE UNDER 139.5 SECONDS!”, or you get completely obsessed with how many times Peyton Manning yells the word “Omaha!” -- for the record, if I made this bet, I would go with the UNDER 28.5 (+105)...but if you do any of these things you probably have a gambling problem.

So there you have it, my Super Bowl XLVIII predictions. I’m picking the Denver Broncos to defeat the Seattle Seahawks 27-20, giving Peyton Manning his second ring. The game will be tied 3-3 after the first quarter before Manning hits Demaryius Thomas for a TD in the second; after that, Lynch will get his score, and the half will close on a Matt Prater field goal (13-10). The Seahawks will burst out in the second half with the Wilson TD to Kearse, the Manning interception, and Hauschka field goal giving Seattle a 20-13 lead. But in the late 3rd/early 4th quarter, Moreno will punch one in to tie the game, and after a Seattle punt after failing to convert on 3rd and 3 from the Denver 48, Manning will drive the Broncos 91 yards in 13 plays, hitting Knowshon Moreno out of the backfield for the game-winning 11 yard touchdown with 2:13 to go. Russell Wilson will give his best effort to come back, but his fourth down hail mary from midfield will fall incomplete, and the game will end. So it is written, so let it be done.

I mentioned this before, but the one aspect of this game that people aren’t giving much thought, and understandably so, is the matchup between the Seattle offense and Denver defense. The sexy matchup is Peyton vs the Legion of Boom, but on the other side of the ball, I think the Broncos have an advantage. The ‘Hawks main strength offensively is the running game, which Denver has been great against, especially in the playoffs against the Chargers and Patriots. I think that while the Seattle defense is terrific, there’s a very slim chance that Peyton will not still put up 24-27 points. So the question is, can Russell Wilson match that? I don’t think so. Lynch is good for a touchdown, but I think he gets held under 100 yards, which means that a majority of the points are going to have to be supplied by the second-year QB. He only threw for 250 or more yards four times this season, including the playoffs, and the last time he did so was December 2nd against the Saints, two months ago. That is also the last game he threw multiple touchdown passes. He has done just enough to win games with a loaded roster around him, and while I think he does have the talent and intangibles to win games, if he wants to win THIS particular game, he’s going to have to do more than just manage the offense. He’s going toe to toe with Peyton Manning to win a championship, so he’s going to have to put up 250 yards and 2 TDs if he wants to win. Even with Von Miller out, the Denver Broncos have a very underrated defense, and although they struggle most against the pass, that isn’t what the Seahawks are built for. To me, that was the deciding factor to pick the Broncos. If Peyton and the Seattle D play to a stalemate, I give the edge to Denver’s D than Seattle’s offense. Two things could prove me wrong: Wilson scrambling around and rushing for 75-100 yards, or Percy Harvin providing the firepower that has been lacking. But I’ll take my chances.

Finally, I want to end with Peyton Manning. He’s been my favorite football player since I was a kid, and there’s so much talk about his legacy, which is understandable, albeit annoying. Whether he wins or loses this game, it won’t prove that he can or can’t win big games in the playoffs. It’s his third time to the Super Bowl, which is three more than most players get to play in, and this game is basically a toss-up. Arguments can be made that by winning this game, Manning could officially become the “Greatest Quarterback Ever”, whatever that means to you. You can’t really compare the likes of Manning, Brady, Montana, Elway, Unitas, Marino, etc. If you think Super Bowl rings are the most important, than Montana and Bradshaw are on the top of your list; if you value statistical records, than Brett Favre is your guy. There will never be an answer to who is the best QB ever, but I think that I would not be out-of-bounds to say this: I think that Peyton Manning is the most talented quarterback ever. He is the perfect blend of size, power, accuracy, and especially brains. He is the smartest athlete I have ever seen, he is a Super Bowl champion, and by the time he retires he will be either first or second in the record books for almost every meaningful quarterbacking statistic. If you are constructing a hypothetical perfect quarterback based on the skills you think are most important, you’re taking more of Peyton to be in that guy than anyone else. That is my stance on his legacy, whether or not he wins this game tonight. There may not ever be an answer to who is the greatest, but if I could pick any QB in the history of the NFL to lead my team to victory in a vacuum, I’m taking Peyton.

I hope you liked this piece and read my weekly picks over the course of the season. I poured a lot of emotion into my football picks, so I appreciate it if you’ve made it this far. Enjoy the game everybody. Long live Peyton Manning.

2013 NFL Conference Championship Preview

Conference Championship Preview

HERE WE GO. The matchups that we all wanted. After a surprisingly pedestrian second round, I feel that we are left with the four best teams in the league. Sunday will be a historic day of games, with the two best contests that we could ever ask for. The first game is between the Patriots and Broncos for the AFC Championship, which means one thing: Brady vs Manning. Every time these two quarterbacks take the field, something special happens, and now we have a battle for a Super Bowl berth. Afterward, on the other side, we have the NFC will-be war between the 49ers and the Seahawks up in Seattle. To say that there will be blood is an understatement; I’m expecting at least two major injuries, including at least one concussion. These are the two most physical teams in the league, playing for the third time this season, and they absolutely hate each other. This year, the crowd in Seattle has set a world record for noise, and reportedly last week caused an EARTHQUAKE on Marshawn Lynch’s final touchdown run. The Niners have been blown out the last two times they went up to the Pacific Northwest, and Kaepernick, as good as he has looked in two playoff games, was utterly overmatched against the Legion of Boom secondary. There’s nothing left to say; each of these teams are so even with their opponents, that literally anything could happen. So instead of making long drawn-out paragraphs about each game, I’m just going to give my picks with my statistical predictions. I’m ready for two absolutely epic games.

NE (+5.5) vs DEN - Before you freak out and think I’m a traitor, I’m not picking the Patriots to win. I would never do that. But even I am not so blind to disrespect Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to think that they won’t stay within five points of Denver. The Pats are playing incredible football right now with the run and pass and I’m terrified that they are going to win this game outright. But I’m not going against my boy Peyton against the team I hate. Here are my stat predictions:

Brady: 21-33, 289 yds, 2 TD, INT

Manning: 24-37, 332 yds, 3 TD, INT

Blount: 13 rush, 41 yds

Ridley: 5 rush, 24 yds, TD, fumble

Vareen: 3 rush, 13 yds, 5 rec, 37 yds, TD

Moreno: 16 rush, 74 yds, TD

Edelman: 8 rec, 84 yds, TD

D Thomas: 5 rec, 72 yds

Decker: 4 rec, 81 yds, TD

Welker: 6 rec, 53 yds, TD

J Thomas: 4 rec, 62 yds, TD

Final Score: New England 27, Denver 31

SF vs SEA (-3.5) - While I don’t think that this game will be a blowout, I think the Seahawks continue their trend of kicking the 49ers’ asses physically at home and punching them in the mouth. The fans will cause another earthquake and break their own noise world record with the Super Bowl on the line. Kaepernick and the Niners will be forced to keeping burning useless timeouts from not being able to hear anything. The matchup to watch are the receivers for San Fran against the secondary of Seattle, and if thought the jawing between the 49ers and Carolina was bad last week, you ain’t seen nothing yet! This game will be electric all the way around, but when it comes down to it, I think that Russell Wilson will play his best game in two months, and make the big plays by moving around with his legs when it matters most.

Kaepernick: 14-26, 176 yds, TD, 2 INT, 34 rush yds

Wilson: 16-24, 202 yds, TD, fumble, 41 rush yds

Gore: 19 rush, 76 yds, TD

Lynch: 23 rush, 121 yds, 2 TD

Crabtree: 5 rec, 51 yds

Davis: 3 rec, 40 yds, TD

Tate: 7 rec, 90 yds, TD

Final Score: San Francisco 17, Seattle 24

Lock of the Week: NE (+5.5)

Performance of the Week: Marshawn Lynch, SEA

Surprise of the Week: Super Bowl will be Denver vs Seattle. Let’s go.

2013 NFL Divisional Round Preview

Divisional Round Preview

What a wild (card) weekend! Three of the four games were fabulous and exciting, and the outcomes were just as thrilling as three underdogs (if you include the Colts, who  were bet down to +2.5 by the time Saturday rolled around) were victorious. I was 2-0 in my AFC picks (Colts and Chargers), but 0-2 predicting the NFC (Eagles and Packers). The latter two teams were my eventual NFC Championship Game matchup, so I’m automatically 0-2 in advance for this weekend already, but maybe I’ll get the weekly picks correct. So here are some quick thoughts about the opening round before I preview our upcoming games.

First, what a comeback by the Indianapolis Colts! Andrew Luck, after starting out miserably, led a phenomenal comeback from 28 points down to eventually win a surprising shootout, 45-44. In that final quarter and a half, we all witnessed the potential greatness that has yet to come from Luck, who is said to be the best quarterback prospect since Manning and Elway. He obviously still has a lot of growth and learning to do, but the display of heart, determination, and poise he showed as a second-year QB was awe-inspiring. He has all the skill and intangibles to become one of the greatest ever, and while he is nowhere near that point yet, that upside is real. The two plays from Saturday’s game to prove that were his fumble recovery into a touchdown that displayed his presence of mind, and his final touchdown pass to T.Y. Hilton which was an absolute laser beam off his arm. I’ve been raving for a year and a half about how it was the right choice to take him over RGIII, and with that performance last Saturday, I believe that argument has been officially put to rest. Congratulations to Andrew Luck on his first playoff win, and there will be many more to come. As for the Chiefs, that loss is inexcusable. An offense that was underwhelming all year had put up 38 points early in the third quarter without Jamaal Charles! Yes, they got bad luck from injuries, but for Alex Smith to be absolutely brilliant (which should not be forgotten) for a half and then not be able to get enough first downs just to keep the clock rolling late? I mean, they were up four touchdowns and then then couldn’t even move the ball! As dominating as their defense was during the season, they really blew it in this one. If the offense isn’t moving the ball and chewing clock, it’s up to the defense to create one final turnover (or at least enough stops) to put the nail in the coffin and stay alive in the playoffs. How did they disappear? Much blame has to be given to the play calling and clock management of Andy Reid (how many times have we said that before?), which ruined an awesome first half. In the end, the Colts made more plays at the end of the game, and they deserved to win. We saw their ceiling to close that game, and it is out of reach from anything Kansas City could do moving forward.

I’ll be able to sum up the other three games much more quickly. On Saturday night, New Orleans proved that they could win a road playoff game in a highly contested matchup with Philadelphia. The Eagles didn’t play up to their normal level from the past couple of months, but in the first playoffs for Nick Foles and Chip Kelly, they performed as well as can be expected. This year put Philly on the map, and they will have to be considered the NFC East favorites heading into next season. This game was more about the Saints, and Drew Brees overcoming a subpar game to still lead the team to victory at the end. Brees and Payton were better than Foles and Kelly, and also deserve to be playing this coming weekend. Unfortunately for them, they have to go back up to Seattle, where they really got their asses handed to them on a rowdy Monday Night. More on that game later on.

The Chargers played a very impressive game on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati by taking down the Bengals 27-10. This was surprising to a lot of people, but not to me if you’ve read anything I’ve ever written. I picked them to win outright, and it was really quite obvious. San Diego was the “team of destiny” heading into the postseason, as the team that was insanely lucky just to be there, and those teams ALWAYS win in the first round. This is very similar to the NCAA tournament where one of the winners of the stupid play-in games continues their momentum into the main bracket. Additionally, the Bengals may win games in the regular season (many by beating inferior teams at home), but they had proven nothing in the playoffs, and have a knack of disappointing you when you actually think they might be good. I said this in the Week 16 game leading up to their loss to Pittsburgh on a nationally televised game. The combo of Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis cannot win a big game, and this was proven once again, even in a home game against an inferior opponent. I was actually more confident in Andrew Luck to win his playoff game when they were down 28 points than I was in Andy Dalton even when they were up 10-7 at the half. The Chargers are legitimately scary, and there’s a real chance they can take down Denver.

Finally, the 49ers and Packers ended the weekend with another nail-biter that ended the same way as their previous matchups: Colin Kaepernick (sleeveless!!!) taking control and winning the game. In incredibly frigid conditions, the Niners were tough enough to hang around and although Kaep did not have a great passing day, he was a menace on the ground, including the final third down run to get his team into field goal range. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were stifled in the first half, and although they performed much better later on, they couldn’t quite finish it off. But don’t worry, Green Bay---your team is going to be in at least the NFC Championship Game next year, you can mark that down. One final note to all the debbie downers out there on television: Yes, of course the Packers held on that crazy escape play by Aaron Rodgers, but who cares? It doesn’t take away from the athleticism of Rodgers, and it didn’t cost the 49ers the game, so stop harping on it. And now, finally, to this week’s action.

NO vs SEA (-7.5) - Yeah, the win for the Saints was great. Whatever. This line was actually bet down to seven and a half because so many people are riding the Saints. These people will lose money. Have people forgotten the 34-7 beatdown that the Seahawks put on the Saints just a few weeks ago? The crowd in Seattle is probably going to set ANOTHER noise record now that it is the playoffs, and while a win in Philly is nice, traveling up to the Pacific Northwest is a whole different deal. The Seahawks feast on people there, and with everyone praising the Saints and especially the Niners, the dominance of the Hawks has actually gone under the radar. This will change immediately. I know I had the Seahawks losing to the Packers in my future playoff predictions last week, but that was exclusively because I think the Packers are terrifying, and they will be next year. I am not, however, afraid of the Saints. There are three lines this week of at least a touchdown, and this is the one I would feel most confident betting the favorite. It might not be another 27-point smackdown, but the Seahawks will be on point and take control early and often. Three turnovers for Brees, and only one for Russell Wilson, with three total touchdowns for the latter. New Orleans 17, Seattle 31

IND (+7) vs NE - I already gave all my praise to Andrew Luck and the Colts in the opening paragraphs, so I won’t continue that here. I really have no idea how this one is going to play out, but there is only one scenario I’m very confident about not happening: a Colts blowout win. The Patriots suffered ANOTHER major injury this week in losing Brandon Spikes, which is crushing to their front lines. I don’t know how they keep continuing to win time after time, but even I will say that the performances by Brady and Belichick this season have been masterful. The Pats have only lost in this round once with Brady (2010 to the J-E-T-S!), but I say that the Colts put up a fight, even if I think that they will ultimately fall short of taking down New England. But I’ll ask you this: after watching the Colts come back from down 28 to win a game outright, how big of a lead are you comfortable with the Patriots having without fearing that Andrew Luck can get back to within seven? I don’t know if there is one. And since that’s the case, I’m taking the Colts and the seven points. However, while Andrew Luck is and will be great, they won’t have enough firepower to keep pace. Brady will be surgical, and complete 70% of his passes with one of those quick QB sneaks for a touchdown. I’m predicting another big game (I was right about him in Week 17!) for Julian Edelman. Belichick will set his gameplan around stopping Hilton, so for the Colts, the guy who needs to step up for them to get a victory, besides Donald Brown, is Coby Fleener controlling the middle of the field. Indianapolis 27, New England 30

SF (-1.5) vs CAR - This is a pick completely with my head and not with my heart, because I want with all my heart for the Carolina Panthers to come out of the NFC. However, there is no way that we are going to have both one and two seeds in the conference championship games, and the 49ers have proven that they can win playoff games on the road. I’m confident in the Panthers because they already beat the Niners this year in San Fran, but they will be playing a much hotter team this time around and be with only a limited Steve Smith. Furthermore, I feel like we are destined to have a San Francisco vs Seattle NFC Championship. It’s going to happen, and I’m telling you to quite literally bet on it right now. The Carolina Panthers have had a miraculous transformation with the maturation of Cam Newton, the growth of balls by Ron Rivera, and the sudden scariness of their defense as a unit. As of right now they are my pick to face and lose to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game next year. But they aren’t build to win it all just yet. They are missing a couple of key pieces, namely a young stud receiver (sorry Brandon LaFell, you’re not that guy), and depth in the secondary. They will be back next year I have no doubt, but the 49ers are better than them right now, especially with Michael Crabtree back (early prediction: top 10 fantasy receiver next year). We are going to get a San Francisco vs Seattle round three, which will surely be just as thrilling as the first two. I’m picking the Niners, but will be rooting for the Panthers. I’ll take Cam with more rushing yards than Kaepernick, but Kaep with more total touchdowns. San Francisco 23, Carolina 17

SD (+9.5) vs DEN - It’s probably stupid that I’m betting against (at least, with the points) Brady and Manning at home in the playoffs. But odds are, one of these favorites is going to lose, and this is a big line. The Chargers are on a roll, and they just beat the Broncos in Denver a month ago. Sure, the circumstances have changed, but the point is that the line for that previous matchup was 9 points and San Diego won outright. Now you have the Bolts streaking, a recent road win in their matchup, the Peyton Manning playing outdoors factor, and the line is half a point higher? There is always a round two upset, and honestly, this game probably has the best potential to be it, for all the reasons listed above. I’m terrified that the Broncos might lose this game, but I don’t want to think that way because of how badly I want Peyton to win a second ring. Even if he does fall short of that goal, it can NOT be in his first game, at home against the once 5-7 Chargers. Their defense is soft without Von Miller in there, and we’re talking about a unit that couldn’t stop San Diego even when he was playing. The one scary aspect of this pick is going against the 600-point scoring Broncos, in the chill of the playoffs I don’t think Peyton has what it takes to simply run away from a team. The Chargers are going to hang around by controlling the clock and Philip Rivers being efficient, and I think they keep it close enough. In the end, I can’t call the upset because I’ll be rooting for Denver, but just know that I’ll be freaking out over this one until the game is over. There are always upsets this weekend and I ended up not picking any, but if there is one I think it will be one the AFC side. But hopefully not in this one. Rivers throws for 262 yards and 3 TDs, and Peyton will have 338 yards and 3 scores, two to Eric Decker. San Diego 24, Denver 31

Lock of the Week: SEA (-7)

Performance of the Week: Russell Wilson, Coby Fleener, Michael Crabtree, NaVorro Bowman, Eric Decker, Eric 

Weddle

Surprise of the Week: Golden Globe predictions! 12 Years a Slave wins for Best Drama and Best Actor, Wolf of Wall Street wins for Best Comedy and Best Actor. Go Leo!

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions + Wild Card Weekend

Wild Card Weekend + Playoff Predictions

Happy New Year, and Happy Playoffs, football fans! After four months of waiting, we have finally reached 2014 and the first round of the NFL postseason. We were witnesses to history in Denver (Manning), scandal in New England (Hernandez), and many significant injuries along the way (Rodgers, Wayne, Gronkowski, etc). We saw the breakouts of Nick Foles (and Chip Kelly), the Carolina Panthers, Josh Gordon, Jamaal Charles, Alshon Jeffrey, and Zac Stacy; the resurgence of Philip Rivers, the New Orleans Saints, and almost Carson Palmer; and the demise of the Washington Redskins, Josh Freeman, and the Detroit Lions. Week 17 itself was pretty wild as expected, with dramatic wins and playoff berths for the Packers, Chargers, and Eagles. I will delve into the events of the regular season at a later time, but this piece is all about looking into the future. The playoffs start today with two great matchups: Chiefs vs Colts, and Saints vs Eagles. In this post, I’ll provide picks for all four of these weekend’s games (and go round by round each week) with some specific player predictions as well as a shot at the entire playoff picture right now to see how accurately I can bet on the next month of action. In my Official 2013 NFL Predictions from before the season, I correctly selected 7 out of the 12 playoff teams to make the postseason; I picked Denver and Seattle to be the number one seeds in their respective conferences which came true, and my best team pick was to take the Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs. Of course, I had plenty of bad picks too, but we’re not going to talk about that right now. Let’s get right into the week’s picks, and I’ll finish up with my predictions for the entire playoffs.

KC vs IND (+1.5) - When I looked at the line yesterday, the Colts were still favored by a point, but the line swung really dramatically right before the game. Either way, I’m taking the Colts, and not just because they convincingly won in KC a couple of weeks ago either. The Chiefs have been fairly predictable all year; they beat up on bad teams early on in the season, but really struggled down the stretch against playoff talent. The Colts have been exactly the opposite, getting blown out by the Rams, Bengals, and Cardinals, but also incredibly defeating the 49ers, Broncos, and Seahawks. The Colts step up against top teams, while the Chiefs falter. The key to beating Kansas City is to contain Jamaal Charles, and Indy has the manpower and the home crowd behind them. Andrew Luck has been unbelievable thus far in his career, and will continue to progress along his path to superstardom. Last year, he led the Colts to a Wild Card berth but lost his first playoff game against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens. This year, he won the division, and will win his first playoff game. Indy gets ahead early on a defensive touchdown and never looks back, forcing Alex Smith to try to beat them. Smith will throw two touchdowns, but Andrew Luck will throw for 275 and have two touchdowns of his own. Donald Brown will also get into the end zone by reception, and Robert Mathis will have 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble. The Colts will move on to either Denver or New England. Kansas City 17, Indianapolis 24

NO vs PHI (-3) - This has less to do with Philly as it does with New Orleans’ immense struggles in the outdoors. The Saints are dominant at home, where they were 8-0 and were basically a lock for 30 points a game, but that won’t do much good as the six seed. They are a completely different team on the road, where they finished 3-5. Does a truly great team have a losing record on the road? I say no. Their three road wins? Tampa by two, before they were not atrocious; Chicago by eight, and Atlanta by four after they were atrocious. For some reason, they can’t perform nearly as well away from the Superdome, and don’t have Pierre Thomas for this game either. This is a bigger deal than you think, because Drew Brees has spent an extraordinary amount of time passing to his running backs Thomas and Sproles this season rather than his wide outs. The Eagles are red hot, and are riding Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy for all they are worth. Usually Drew Brees and Sean Payton are the QB-coach duo you think of when picturing a dynamic duo, but Foles and Kelly are quickly taking that title from them, especially outdoors. Big advantage for the Eagles with snow on the ground, and they will bring their blistering pace into Carolina next week. Brees has 350 yards and two touchdowns, but will have to throw it 53 times with two turnovers as well, including the dagger in the fourth quarter. Foles will have a more modest 284 yards and a TD or two, but the superstar day will be had by Shady. New Orleans 20, Philadelphia 31

SD (+7) vs CIN - How the hell did the Chargers even get in the playoffs? It took an incredible missed field goal, a ludicrous no-call, and major luck in overtime to barely get past the Kansas City second stringers. Then they received the necessary help with Baltimore and Miami each losing (Side note: what are you doing, Miami? They got shut out by the Bills and lost at home to Geno Smith to end the season, when one win would have got them in the playoffs). Pittsburgh should feel very slighted about missing out on the postseason, but in fairness, they were only 8-8, so they don’t have much beef. Anyway, the Chargers may be lucky to have gotten the six seed in the AFC, but they are a very dangerous squad. They have a tremendous advantage at the quarterback position which is a huge bonus in a road playoff game. They just beat the Broncos in Denver, so going into Cincinnati will not scare the Chargers one bit. The Bengals might have gone 8-0 at home, but if you’ve read my picks all season, you know that I am not sold on them. Even if they win a playoff game, which is something that Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis have never done, they are going to get throttled by New England next week, so what’s the fun in picking them. The Chargers are led by a playoff veteran and have already proved that they could go into Mile High and beat Peyton Manning, which is what they would have to do in the second round. I think Philip Rivers continues his bounce-back season and picks apart Cincy for 300 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, and Ryan Matthews. Ryan Matthews (if healthy) and Danny Woodhead will combine for 7 catches and 150 rushing yards. On the other side, Andy Dalton will throw three interceptions, and if the Chargers are smart they will double team AJ Green all day. A possible x-factor for the Bengals: Giovani Bernard. Ladies and gentlemen, we have our first playoff UPSET ALERT! San Diego 27, Cincinnati 14

SF vs GB (+3) - This is a tremendous matchup, especially now that Aaron Rodgers is back. I still have no idea how Green Bay got into the postseason; Aaron Rodgers missed almost half the season, as did Randall Cobb, while Clay Matthews has been out for an extended period of time as well. Yet they hung around in the suddenly awful NFC North and won miraculously in Chicago to end the season. Those three converted fourth downs were magnificent, especially the game-winning play from Rodgers to Cobb with under a minute to play. The Pack are going to go on in F-U mode at some point soon now that their QB is back; it will either be in these playoffs, or a run into late January next year. At full strength, their offense is terrifying with Rodgers, Lacy, Nelson, Jones, and Cobb. The tough part about this pick is that Colin Kaepernick has torched the Packers twice in a row now with his arms and legs, and the Niners are on a strong winning streak. After looking vulnerable early in the season, San Francisco has looked dominant the last few weeks, and almost stole the NFC West from the Seahawks. Michael Crabtree, while not lighting up the stat sheet, has provided depth for the passing attack that thus far was centralized around Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. The 49ers will be ready for a battle with the aforementioned studs and Frank Gore still pumping out first downs on the ground. There are two factors that swayed my decision to take the Cheeseheads, not including the fact that I hate the Niners and like the Packers: first, that it’s Aaron Rodgers playing at home; second, that it is going to be negative degrees in Lambeau Field on Sunday. People who say weather doesn’t make a difference in sports is kidding themselves; going from warm weather to negative temperature is a significant change. Give me the Packers to finally take down the 49ers in a clash worthy of being the NFC Championship Game. Kaepernick will have 324 total yards and a touchdown and turnover each. Frank Gore will have a throwback performance of 100 yards and a TD, but the defense will struggle if Rodgers can successfully spread them out wide. Aaron Rodgers will throw for 300 yards with two touchdowns, while Eddie Lacy will punch a touchdown in late in the game. Out of the three top Green Bay receivers, I think that Jordy Nelson will have the biggest night with over 100 yards and at least one touchdown. I’ll take the over on at least 50% players that wear sleeves, even though all football players try to be macho like it proves something. The Packers move on to the divisional round. San Francisco 24, Green Bay 27

So now that we’ve taken care of the picks this weekend, let’s take a look at my predictions for the entire postseason. Before the year I took Denver to win the Lombardi Trophy...will I keep my pick the same?

AFC                                                                                             NFC

6 SD     27                            5 KC      17                                     6 NO     20                                   5 SF      24

3 CIN   14                            4 IND   24                                     3 PHI   31                                    4 GB     27

6 SD      24                          4 IND    23                                    4 GB     23                                   3 PHI    27

1 DEN   34                          2 NE      27                                     1 SEA   20                                   2 CAR   20

                      2 NE     31                                                                                      4 GB     31

                      1 DEN   34                                                                                     3 PHI   24

                                                                              Super Bowl

                                                                             1  DEN     31

                                                                             3  GB       27

Yes I will. I’m still picking the Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl, although that is hardly an objective pick. Firstly, I’ve had the Broncos winning it all since August, and they have done nothing to make me want to change my mind. Peyton Manning has had the greatest statistical season ever by a quarterback, and it’s hard to bet against that, even given his playoff track record and the recent loss of Von Miller. The NFC side of the playoff picture is much more interesting, as I do think the Green Bay Packers will make it to the Super Bowl now that Aaron Rodgers is back and ready to roll. I think that they will shock the world and take out the Seattle Seahawks in round two, and will meet the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game after the latter upsets the Carolina Panthers. I would love for the Panthers to get to the Super Bowl, but although they had a great season, I don’t think they have enough offensive weapons to make it there in Cam Newton’s first postseason. The Broncos will defeat the Pack in Giants Stadium in an offensive showdown between the two premiere quarterbacks in the NFL. I feel that it is now or never for Peyton Manning to win his second ring, because he will never be as good again as he was this year. Go Broncos, and good luck to all your teams this weekend. Happy 2014, and Happy Playoffs.

Lock of the Week: IND (+1.5)

Performance of the Week: LeSean McCoy, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Mathis

Surprise of the Week: Chargers over Bengals!