2013 NFL Preview

2013 NFL Preview

Welcome, readers, and get ready, once again, for another exciting season of football. We are just over a month away from kickoff, which means that it’s about time for me to start rolling out my predictions for the year. This consists of analysis of every team, including the predicted win-loss record, breakout stars or major disappointments, bold predictions, and of course, a Super Bowl champion at the end. Whether you trust my thoughts or not, you have to give me credit for picking the Baltimore Ravens to hoist the Lombardy Trophy from before the season. This year, I’m going for a winning streak. This preview will not go into much detail, as it is merely an introduction to the season, with some of my initial thoughts for what lies ahead. It is here that I will mention teams and players I am particularly optimistic about, applicable to real life as well as fantasy. Also keep in mind that over the course of the next few weeks, changes will occur (mainly due to injury), so not everything will be exact until my final prediction column that I will put out right before the start of the season. For example, already today, Jeremy Maclin seems to have tore his ACL, and Dennis Pitta suffered a dislocated hip, which slightly changes my opinions of the Eagles and Ravens. This post is supposed to be light and fun, and I’ll save the in-depth stuff for the team-by-team previews, which will begin hopefully tomorrow, starting with the Buffalo Bills (I will be going in alphabetical order by division, starting with the AFC East). I’ll get started without any further interruption. Happy Football, everybody.

Let me begin with the teams that I am bullish on, because it is an important subject. For almost every season in recent memory, there have been at least FIVE new teams in the playoffs (combined in both conferences), meaning that there is always some shaking up. Even further, statistics show that about one out of every four teams who finish 6-10 will make the playoffs next season. Bill Barnwell on Grantland wrote an interesting column about this trend. Last year, there were ten teams that fit the bill: Jets, Bills, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders, Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, and Cardinals. At least one of these teams will make the postseason in 2013 (I’ll get to my pick soon; I guarantee it will surprise you). Here are some quick hits on the teams I like this year (note: this doesn’t mean I automatically have them in the playoffs).

• Miami: They’ve become so underrated that they are now overrated, but you cannot deny that they have made massive strides this offseason. We’ll see how quickly they can put the pieces together to challenge the Patriots in the AFC East.
• Kansas City: Remember, this team had multiple Pro Bowlers, and now bring in a veteran coach (Reid), and a competent quarterback (Smith). In the weakest division in an overall weak conference, they could sneak into a Wild Card spot.
• Saint Louis: Vastly underrated defense plus young, fast weapons on offense and a good coach in Jeff Fisher. People point to their brutal division as a downside...the Rams were 4-1-1 vs the NFC West last year, beating the Seahawks once and going 1-0-1 against the Super Bowl runner-up 49ers.
• Tampa Bay: I love this team. Doug Martin took the NFL by storm last year but was obviously overshadowed by Adrian Peterson. Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams make a solid WR duo, and their two stud guards are healthy this year. They had the top run defense last year and they added Darrelle Revis and Goldson to sure up the secondary. Their success rests on the arm of Josh Freeman, who is playing for a new contract. They are still under the radar, and I think they will be great.
• Cleveland: This is my 6-10 or worse team that I mentioned before would make the playoffs. I know, I am a bit crazy. This would obviously be a miracle if it came true. But hear me out. Trent Richardson is the “beast mode” of the AFC. Josh Gordon is a legitimate downfield threat, and Davone Bess is pretty good in the slot. The defense will be much improved, especially upfront with the additions of Paul Kruger and rookie Mingo. I love the new coaching regime; Rob Chudzinski once took Derek Anderson to the Pro Bowl, Norv Turner (even though he was a bone-headed head coach) is an offensive guru who can succeed back as an OC, and their new defense coordinator is Ray Horton, who turned the Arizona defense into a formidable unit. The AFC is weak, and 9-7 can get a wild card (or maybe even win that division). This has a real chance of happening unless Brandon Weeden is still Brandon Weeden. Pittsburgh is without Wallace and Miller and has an agin defense; Cincinnati struggles on offense outside of AJ Green and can be stopped; The Ravens just overhauled their defense and lost Dennis Pitta for the year. But more on this in the Cleveland team preview, which will be a good read. Just remember: watch out for the Browns! I’m a believer.
• Wild Card: Philadelphia Eagles. This does not mean I think they will necessarily win a wild card spot, it means that they are literally a wild card. I have no idea what to make of them. Chip Kelly is bringing his chaotic speed offense that will basically be the NFL version of the Steve Nash-led Phoenix Suns. They could easily go 12-4 and just as quickly finish 4-12. I originally pegged them for a 9-7 season, but I think the loss of Maclin costs them at least a game. Right now, I don’t see them making the playoffs, but I wanted to mention them because if nothing else, they will be exciting to watch, and they will be a popular pick to be that bad team to turn around and make the postseason right away.

Okay, now for some quicker hits on some of the teams I don’t really care for this year, even if it is a gut instinct. Sell their stock.

• New York Jets: Self-explanatory. They suck.
• Cincinnati: This team has a realistic chance to win the AFC North this year. However, I’m sick of them barely getting into the playoffs with an atrocious offense and giving us a hideous game with Houston where they lose immediately. Plus, I like Cleveland, so someone in the North has to fall back. Again, though, because I am objective, I have to at least point out that they could also be very good with the drafting of Bernard and Eifert, along with the return of Sanu to make the offense respectable. Their defense is already fantastic.
• Washington: I don’t hate this team. I support RGIII and I hope he returns good as new from his ACL injury. However, I don’t think he’ll have the same impact (even if he plays all 16 games), nor will Alfred Morris. Their defense is average, although a healthy Brian Orakpo is a boost. This team will not be bad, but the NFC East is perennially a gauntlet, and the Redskins were 3-6 before winning their last seven games to win the division by a hair. I think that 2014 will be their year.
• New Orleans: I had originally thought that the Saints would come out this year with Sean Payton back and explode with a vengeance. After a couple of months of thought, I’ve come down to earth. I think that this team is still a one-man show with Brees, with a suspect running game and a putrid defense. Couple that with the expected (by me) rise of the Bucs, and I’m looking at 8-8 with no playoffs.
• San Francisco: Obligatory, because I’ve been anti-Kaepernick from the beginning, and I’m committed to that stance. The loss of Crabtree is a big blow, but Anquan Boldin will bring even more toughness to the offense. Are they a playoff team? Yes. I just think that Seattle will win this division, and the 49ers stumble. Just a bit.

Now that I’ve been through the teams, it’s time for my Love-Hate for the players. Remember, if you agree or disagree with anything, feel free to leave a comment, I’d love to know what people think. So for this section, I guess I’ll run through by positions for my sleepers and busts. For all the fantasy fanatics, stay with me. It’s about to go down. The people I name do not reflect my final rankings, only whether I think they are over- or undervalued, based on ESPN rankings.

Quarterbacks:

• F YOU KAEPERNICK.
• Major fan of Russell Wilson. He had 26 TDs last year and Seattle threw the ball the fewest times in the league. He’ll have an increased role running as well.
• Bounce back year for Stafford, he’ll have 30+ TDs.
• I also like Andrew Luck, and Freeman as a deep sleeper (all in on the Bucs).
• As for Tom Brady...I think he finishes around the #7 ranked QB. He’ll get his yards because they run so many freaking plays, but his receiving corps are just decimated. No Welker, no Hernandez, banged-up Gronk, fragile Amendola...where are his TDs going to come? Even if you spot Gronk 10, in order for Brady to reach 30 touchdowns, he’d have to spread 20 between Edelman, Vareen, rookie Dobson...Brady slips a little bit, but stays in the top ten, because even though I hate him, he’s still Tom Brady. Although, having said that, I’m expecting a monster year from...

Running Backs:

• Stevan Ridley: the Pats will run plays, and their passing numbers are bound to decline a little bit. Without Welker and Hernandez, and with Gronk dinged up, I expect Ridley to fill a lot of the void by running the ball, especially near the goal line. He is my early bold prediction pick to lead the NFL in rushing TDs, to go along with 1200-1300 yards. Note: fantasy-wise, Vareen is a nice handcuff.
• Jamaal Charles will lead the NFL in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage.
• Either David Wilson or Lamar Miller (my boy out of the U) will break out.
• Down on Alfred Morris, MJD, Gore, and somewhat Steven Jackson. I think Jax will be better on the Falcons, but not worth a second round fantasy pick. Also a little down on Ray Rice, who I think will finish outside the top 10, but will be in the teens.
• NEVER EVER PICK RYAN MATHEWS, DEMARCO MURRAY, MCFADDEN, ANY PANTHERS RB, OR ANY SAINTS RB. If they beat you, they beat you. Not worth a top pick to have them injured, except maybe McFadden if he’s your 3rd RB.
• As far as rookies go, I really like Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh as a sleeper to get 10 TDs. Lacy in Green Bay and Montee Ball in Denver are shaky picks, because although they could produce, it’s hard to trust a rookie runner in a prolific passing offense. I also think Giovani Bernard will be the Bengals’ starter by the end of the year, if that means anything to you.
• Reggie Bush equals PPR god. Pick him over Sproles in that scenario.
• The Browns (Bryce and Andre) are good handcuffs, as are Bernard Pierce and Jacquizz Rodgers in the later rounds.

Wide Receivers

• First of all, for anyone who listened to me last year, you’re welcome for Brandon Marshall. If you don’t know what I mean, go back and read my Chicago team preview from 2012.
• Regarding this year, there are, to me, six elite wide outs: Megatron, AJ Green, Dez, Marshall, Julio Jones, and the soon-to-be-reborn Larry Fitzgerald. The three that I’m crazy about this year are Jones (the breakout star), Fitz (great value in the second crop of receivers), and Dez Bryant, who I think will be number one overall. You heard me. I think he’s in for a year with splits like 104/1,512/15 or something equally ridiculous.
• I like all three Denver guys but it’s hard to say how much production will be inadvertently cut off from each guy. I like Thomas the best to duplicate his numbers.
• Sleeper picks (really excited for this): Torrey Smith, Tavon Austin, TY Hilton, Mike Williams, Denarius Moore, Josh Gordon, and maybe Justin Blackmon, who’s breakout  year will probably be 2014 when he’s in his third season and not suspended four games. At least two of these guys will have either 1,200 or 10 TDs. Solid mid-to-late round picks in your fantasy draft as 4th and 5th receivers.
• Guys I’m down on: Andre Johnson, Wallace, Steve Smith, Garcon, Miles Austin, Roddy (not top 10), Vincent Jackson (slightly more equal numbers to Mike Williams).

Tight Ends

• This position is a crap shoot. Either take Jimmy Graham or wait like hell. A few names late to keep in mind: Greg Olsen, Brandon Myers, Jared Cook, Dwayne Allen.

Kickers

• Do not pick one before the last round. A few names I like, based on nothing whatsoever: Matt Bryant, Justin Tucker, Dan Bailey, Sebastian Janikowski’s name.

D/ST

• I usually don’t even factor in the special teams (unless it’s the Bears) part because those scores are so rare. This is also a confusing category, because it doesn’t usually award the best real life defenses. Points are determined based on score given up, sacks, and turnovers, so yardage doesn’t really matter. That’s how bend but don’t break defenses can succeed, like the Patriots last year, who gave up a ton of yards but not to many points, while forcing a bunch of turnovers. You would assume that Seattle (another one of my great predictions from last year) and San Francisco would finish one and two in some order, but there’s a 95% chance that it won’t happen that way. Instead of trying to rank this position, I’ll just give you two teams that I think will be great bargains, even if you have to pick them up off the waiver wire.
• St. Louis has a very good defense that gets overshadowed by the Seahawks and the 49ers. They have two sack artists in Chris Long and Robert Quinn. James Laurinitis is a tank up the middle, and the Rams just also drafted Alec Ogletree. Their secondary is full of ball hawks as well, as rookie Janoris Jenkins proved last year. They are young and fast, and will be a top 10 D/ST.
• The other unit I really like is Cleveland. Browns Nation, let me hear you! Like I said, Ray Horton is the new coordinator and he will attack with his 3-4 scheme. The pass rush will be improved with the additions of Kruger and Mingo, and D’Qwell Jackson should have a big year. Horton’s MLB in Arizona was Daryl Washington, who not only got plenty of tackles, but had I believe eight or nine sacks as well. Joe Haden is a great corner to lead the secondary. In a division and conference that doesn’t have many offensive powerhouses, this unit can thrive, keeping teams out of the end zone while racking up sacks, picks, and fumbles. I’m not saying they will be number one, but the Cleveland D/ST will be in the top 10, and maybe even the top 5.

That’s all I’ve got for you right now, but there will be much, much more to come as kickoff gets nearer. These predictions will probably change a little bit, but for right now, I have a lot of confidence in my beliefs. Before I finish, I’ll give you my temporary six playoff teams from each conference in seed order. This will most likely be the part of my predictions that change the most of the next few weeks, but this is a good indication on where my head is at right now. Feel free to pick it apart.

AFC: Denver, Baltimore (before Pitta injury), Houston, New England, Cleveland, Miami.

NFC: Seattle, TB/GB, GB/TB, New York Giants, San Francisco, Atlanta.

If those predictions hold true, I will have four new teams entering the playoffs (CLE, MIA, NYG, TB), which is still one off the magic number of five, so there could be another surprise team in the mix at some point. The thing that should jump off the page at you (besides the already covered lunacy of the Browns in the playoffs) is that NFC South race. Right now I have Tampa Bay ahead of Atlanta, although I like both teams a lot. I think this race will be exciting all year long, and both the Bucs and Falcons should still be playing come January. As far as the Super Bowl (which is being awesomely held in New York), I really have no clue yet who my winner will be. But since I’m a man of the people, I’ll sign off with this initial pick: Seattle over Denver. Two obvious flaws with this: the unknown health abomination that is Percy Harvin, and the fact that I will never pick two number one seeds to make the Super Bowl, because what fun is that? But there you go. Team previews coming soon. Enjoy, and may your team remain healthy through training camp.

NBA 2012-2013 Playoffs Recap And More

NBA Recap 2012-2013

It’s been too long since I last wrote something, but don’t you worry; I’m about to be finished with school which means I’ll have much more time to commit to this blog. I’m going to have to anyway--football season is right around the corner! But before we switch gears and transition to the NFL, I wanted to wrap up the NBA season that is now behind us. Although it kills me, I must say congratulations to the Miami Heat, now the two-time defending champions. Last year they had some major luck with injuries to other teams and weren’t really tested too much; none of this was their fault, of course, but overall I don’t think it was a memorable title run. Those same slights cannot be applied to this year. The Heat earned this title and were pushed to the absolute limit to get it. But more on that in a little bit. First, there’s some things I want to say about the playoffs as a whole, and after, I’m going to include some tidbits about the draft and these first few days of free agency. It was one heck of a basketball season, and the craziness is going to keep on coming.

There is nothing quite like playoff basketball in sports. The theater and drama is unparalleled given the period of time it spans. You can argue that the NFL playoffs are more exciting because of the magnitude of each game, as is the NCAA tournament because of its unpredictability. You wouldn’t be wrong, but I think it would be like comparing apples and oranges, because single elimination postseasons are much different than a stretched out seven game series. The bad blood that stems from seeing the same opponent over and over again creates intense rivalries among the top teams. Just look at the Eastern Conference, with perennial matchups between teams like the Heat, Pacers, Bulls, Celtics, and Knicks. There were so many exciting moments during this postseason, and I want to give credit to a couple of players who became bright stars with their performance. First, I have to talk about Stephen Curry. This kid was the star of the first two rounds, as he led the Warriors to a victory over the favored Nuggets and put up a heck of a fight against the Spurs. He had some truly amazing quarters where he simply shot the lights out of whatever arena he happened to be in. Curry is already to most people, including me, the best pure shooter in the game, and the beauty of his shooting stroke is basically to basketball what Ken Griffey Jr’s swing was to baseball. He has made Golden State relevant, and next year will be must-see TV, in the same sort of way that the Seven Seconds or Less Phoenix Suns were with Steve Nash. The other guy who made a huge leap on the biggest stage was Paul George of the Indiana Pacers. Even though he is still a baby in this league, he was given the responsibility of being his team’s main scorer at the same time as defending the best player on the planet. He showed poise beyond his years in the Eastern Conference Finals, and was a majority of the reason why the Pacers shockingly took the Heat to seven games. Remember, at the end of overtime in Game One, he made all three free throws with two seconds left that would have won the game if they hadn’t given up the LeBron layup when Hibbert was on the bench. George and Curry will be two of the top seven or eight players in this league within five years.

Now, to the Finals. Subjectively, they were devastating in every way possible. These are my two most hated teams in the NBA, and are both in my top five in all of sports. Fine, I’ll give you the list. #5: Spurs. #4: Duke. #3: Red Sox. #2: Heat. #1: Patriots. I was put in the awkward situation of having to root for my arch-nemesis (remember, I grew up a Suns fan), because that’s just how much I want the Heat to lose. Objectively, however, this was the best Finals I have ever seen in person. This was truly basketball at its highest level, and us fans were lucky enough to enjoy seven games of it. This could have been a series to 15 and it would not have lost its luster. Every game had me either standing up or on the edge of my seat. Unfortunately, Game Six will be forever torched into my retinas. At least I’m not a Spurs fan. Instead of just blabbing on about everything, I’m going to cut all my points into sections because there’s so many things to talk about (I promise I won’t get to every one; I know you have lives).

I’ll start with everything about the Spurs. As a team, I’m kind of amazed they put up the fight that they did. I thought they were too old to hang with the West, but I actually did think that the Heat was a good matchup for them. I legitimately thought, after they let 3-2, that San Antonia was a lock to win the series. Even with two games in Miami, I didn’t think the Heat were playing well enough to beat them twice in a row. Then Game Six happened...and just completely destroyed my hopes and dreams. Even though they were up ten going into the fourth, it was quite obvious that Miami was going to make one more run. Tony Parker hit those two huge shots and LeBron turned the ball over twice, and San Antonio had a five point lead with 30 seconds left. In other words, the series was over. The trophy was being wheeled out to the court as the Spurs choked! I pretty much had the same reaction to the collapse as I did while watching Game of Thrones’ Red Wedding: I kind of knew what was about to happen, but even as it was happening, I was still just in shock and awe as I watched in horror. The night ended the same way: me going to bed without uttering a single word. Two missed free throws, two missed defensive rebounds...I couldn’t believe what I was seeing. Game Seven was another thriller that the Heat won in the final minute, ending the Spurs’ hopes at another title. It would have been the fifth for Duncan and Popovich. It really seemed like the last gasp for Ginobili. I don’t know if Parker was still shaken up by his hamstring or if he was just shut down by LeBron, but if he had given them absolutely anything in those two games, the Spurs win the title. The one time I actually wanted them to win, San Antonio had victory in their hands and choked it away. Unbelievable. Two quick positives: For those first five games, it was Danny Green’s world and we were all just living in it. That barrage of three’s (especially in Game Three, along with Gary Neal) was utterly ridiculous. He set the NBA Finals’ record for threes in only FIVE GAMES. What???? Unfortunately, the magic didn’t last, as he was, I believe, 2-19 combined in those final two games from the floor. But man, I have never seen a continued shooting display like that by a role player on that kind of stage in my life. The other: KAWHI LEONARD. Oh my god. At 21 years old, he was absolutely extraordinary, especially on the defensive end. His hands are so fast and strong, he was wreaking havoc all over the floor, and for the most part, stymied LeBron James the entire series! He became a more viable option offensively, and hit a shot that no one remembers in Game Seven: a three over LeBron with two minutes left to play to cut the lead back to 90-88 just when it looked like the Spurs were finished. Of course, the play everyone remembers was him missing one of those devastating free throws down the stretch in Game Six that might have cost his team a championship, but that isn’t fair, because he played so much higher than his expectations. He was the unsung hero for the Spurs.

Now, as for the Heat...I can’t hate on them right now. They went through hell and back to get past the Pacers and the Spurs to win this ring. They were pushed to the limit in that Finals series, and were dead to rights, but never quit, and remarkably stayed alive just enough to win the title. It’s incredible when you realize that the Heat have played in three straight Finals, LeBron played in the Olympics, and they still never wore down. I think all of those games will have a bigger impact next season, when the Pacers will be better, the Nets will be loaded, and Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook will be back as well. The Big Three gave everything they had to win their second championship, even though Wade and Bosh struggled most of the postseason. Even though Bosh especially struggled in Game Seven with NO POINTS because he was in foul trouble, I think he gets a pass because his defense in Game Six saved this team. He should not be traded or amnestied. Another unsung hero was Shane Battier, who, after being worthless the entire series, comes off the bench in Game Seven and hits six threes. I mean, how the hell does that happen??? That Ray Allen three at the end of Game Six to force overtime will be one of the most iconic shots of the century, even in fifty years. HE NEVER EVEN TURNED AROUND TO SEE WHERE THE LINE WAS, HE JUST BACKPEDALED AND INSTINCTIVELY KNEW WHERE HE WAS ON THE FLOOR IN THE BIGGEST MOMENT OF HIS CAREER AND SWISHED THE SHOT THAT SAVED THE HEAT AND ALTERED THE LEGACIES OF SOME OF THE BEST PLAYERS OF ALL TIME; THE ENORMITY OF THAT MOMENT CAN NOT BE OVERSTATED. It’s crazy how sports works: Allen was killed by many for ditching the Celtics and joining their rival. A year later, Boston is in shambles, and Allen hits the defining shot of his Hall of Fame career to bring said rival a championship. That will be a shot which people at the game will tell their grandchildren about--you know, the ones who actually stayed around to see it instead of walking out. Again, that game will live on in my nightmares as the most horribly exciting important game of my lifetime.

LeBron needs a separate section for himself, not out of respect (okay, maybe a little bit), but out of necessity, because he is so polarizing an athlete. I am known to be a LeBron James critic, to say the least. I’m not one of those bandwagon haters, either, who joined the ranks only after the decision; I never particularly, even during his Cleveland days. The last few years in Miami just exacerbated the issue. Before I take some shots at him, I have to give credit where credit is due. The major knock on James prior to the Finals was that although he had become so much more well rounded, he had never really scared anybody with his jump shot. We saw it the first six games of the series: the Spurs played off him, dared him to shoot, and blocked off the driving lines. LeBron did shoot, and had a relatively atrocious percentage from outside. For most of the first six games, James struggled and was held in check. I think it took him four or five games to even get above 20 points. However, Game Seven was the night he vanquished all doubts about his skills, or lack thereof. LeBron, in my opinion, fully earned the nickname of the King for the first time, by stepping up in the biggest game of his life. He made five threes and made the Spurs pay for playing off him. When the title was hanging in the balance at the end of the seventh game, James hit two pull up jumpers to ice the game and seal the championship, doing what the Spurs could not the game before. Even though I was obviously angry about the result of the series, I could not be depressed, because if I knew that if LeBron won by making those dreaded jump shots, then he truly deserved to win. In the game he needed to win, he faced his fears head on and eliminated the one flaw in his offensive repertoire. He deserved the Finals MVP, and his second ring.

Now, with that said...there are things that bother me about him. It is the main reason I despise the Heat with every fiber of my being. The arrogance level of him and the entire team, on the court, is absolutely pathetic and inexcusable. It must be said, that off the court, LeBron has never had any incidents or been in trouble, and I applaud him for that. But I get to hate him when he gets inside the lines. It started way back when the Big Three were introduced together, and they acted like they were already crowned. LeBron made the “not five, not six, not seven...” remark, and I thought, “okay LeBron, that’s fine to say, but you better back that up and I hope you never get there”. He is undeniably the most talented player in the world, but he plays the game cheap and hypocritically. When he makes a drive to the basket and finishes at the rim, he screams like a hooligan at the crowd and kisses his flexed biceps so everyone knows how strong he is, which is defensible showboating because he is that strong. But if he is going to do that, then he can’t pretend he’s weak, and that’s what he does every single time he flops on defense. Are you trying to tell me that he’s strong enough to finish over seven footers but when someone half his size bumps into him slightly, it’s enough force to send him flying down to the floor? It’s disgraceful, and if he tried that in the eighties when MJ played, he would get mocked and actually thrown to the floor by the tough guys back then. And then, of course, he makes theatrical gestures every time a foul is called against him, or when he does not get a call while driving to the basket, as though he is a god and the refs should bow to him. This is the ultimate form of arrogance, and it is something that is teammate Dwyane Wade does even more than James, to the point where late in the fourth quarter in an NBA Finals game (I believe it’s Game Five), Wade yells at the ref with his arms out instead of getting back on defense, leaving Danny Green wide open to hit a transition three that ices the game. Oh, and don’t even get me started on the rat that is Mario Chalmers. It’s absolutely sickening to see them win when they don’t have the class of a champion. Their “fans” have taken the same approach, I guess, as shown when they left Game Six early when it looked like they were about to lose. If LeBron leaves in 2014, I guarantee the arena will immediately behalf empty. I am against everything the Miami Heat stand for.

As for LeBron himself, I think his ceiling is a top five player of all time, maybe even as high as number two. He can never pass Michael Jordan, and anyone who says that he is better does not know anything about basketball; they are just frontrunning bandwagoners living in the moment with no perspective and historical knowledge. The argument isn’t really that hard to make either. It is very possible, if not probable, that James will end up with better core statistics than MJ (points, rebounds, assists, etc.). That’s as far as you can go debating for LeBron. I am of the opinion that James will never pass Jordan in championships. Right now the tally is 6-2. If LeBron wins five more, then we’ll talk. But the fact is, LBJ has won two out of four Finals he has been in, while MJ went 6-6 with 6 MVPs. If the Spurs had not collapsed in Game Six, that number could easily have been one out of four. Michael Jordan never even needed seven games to win a championship. He took two years off in the nineties, came back, and his Bulls won the record 72 games the following year! What if he had played in the NBA those two years? We could, potentially, be talking about EIGHT TITLES IN A ROW. People say that LeBron succeeded with a Cavs team that was horrible, which is fair. However, the entire Eastern Conference last decade was abysmal, and when teams got better, he couldn’t beat them (’08 Celtics, ’09 Magic, etc.). At the beginning of Jordan’s career, he faced off against Bird’s Celtics, Isiah’s Pistons, Magic’s Lakers, Hakeem’s Rockets, Ewing’s Knicks, Barkley’s 76ers.... LeBron couldn’t win a title until he joined forces with his number one rival in the conference, added Chris Bosh as well, and still couldn’t win his first year because he choked in the fourth quarters against Dallas. In the last three years, the Heat have made the Finals all three times and won twice; at the peaks of his career, MJ won the Finals three straight times, TWICE. Too many teams are getting better today (Pacers, Nets, Thunder, Bulls, etc.) that I don’t think LeBron can win four more titles, especially not with an aging Heat team. If you’re a LeBron supporter, that’s fine, but there are absolutely no arguments you can make that trumps what I just wrote. We’ll see what happens for the rest of his career, but I think at best LeBron can be number two. And that’s still very high praise.

Okay, now that we finally got through all of that, here are some quick points on the draft. I’m not a draft expert, and I have no idea how to rate prospects, so whatever I’m about to say comes straight from gut instinct. I do love watching college basketball, though, so I’m not a fool, either. Before I get to the players, I want to say that I loved the interaction between Stern and the fans, with the booing and the jokes, and then the standing ovation right at the end as he made he final pick announcement ever. Then, after applauding Adam Silver (the next Commish) all these years, he got greeted with a boo to signify the passing of the torch. Great stuff. As for the players, I’m not going to talk about any second round draft picks or international guys (how many of them actually pan out? no huge star like Rubio here) because why bother. Out of the (relatively) big names, here are some guys I like or don’t like.

The Cavaliers taking Anthony Bennett at number one was a bit of a shock, but I didn’t really mind it. Remember, nothing or no one is a sure thing in a draft, especially this one, and Bennett can fit into that team is a undersized, high energy four guy who can crash the glass, kind of like a better offensive Reggie Evans. Do I think he’ll be great? Not necessarily. But in this draft, if he stays healthy and can give them 14-9 with a high motor, he’ll compliment the young guards Kyrie, Waiters, and now Jarrett Jack.

I love Victor Oladipo, and I was really frustrated when he went to the Magic, because they suck and he has a chance to be great. People compare him to Dwyane Wade, but I don’t think he’ll be able to score enough to warrant that comp. He could be the second best player on a championship team at his ceiling, and maybe average 17-6-4 with like 2 steals and 1.5 threes a night and great D. Just a great overall player. Again, he just has to get out of the abyss that is Orlando.

As a Suns fan, I really wanted them to get this pick right, and I think Alex Len has a nice future if he develops well. He’s over seven feet, so he could be a great big man to have for years to come. I’m happier to have him then if they would have had Noel. I think he can be a better Omer Asik in a couple of years, averaging like a 15-13 and 2 blocks. At least that’s what I hope, anyway.

Other guys I like in their roles: Trey Burke (major “it factor”, will get good minutes right away), Steven Adams (OKC needs a big center to replace Perkins), Reggie Bullock (great shooter at UNC, disappointed he went to Clips - don’t like them - but he can be a quality role playing SF), and Tim Hardaway Jr (big time shooter, I think good match for the bright lights of MSG, this just feels like a good fit).

Also, here are some guys I am not a fan of, and I think will really underwhelm:

Otto Porter Jr (decent college player, not good enough to beat a 15 seed in the tourney, an all-around solid talent but no defining skill), Noel and MCW (sorry, 76ers fans, I think Dieng will be better than Noel, and Burke over Carter-Williams), Mason Plumlee (obligatory hatred of rich white guy who played at Duke). Supposedly next year’s draft is supposed to be loaded, so I’ll have more to say next year. Just remember: the best player out of this draft will be Oladipo, biggest disappointment is Noel. Top Ten Under the Radar Guy Who Will Play a Surprisingly Big Role On a Playoff Team in the Next Three Years: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET).

Ok, finally, finally, a few quick hits on free agency. First, what’s up with all the coaching changes? The Doc situation with Boston was crazy, but he’ll be happy in LA, and I like Brad Stevens coming up to the NBA. George Karl getting fired was surprising considering he had literally just won Coach of the Year like ten minutes prior. The guy who I really think got shafted was Lionel Hollins. This guy just led Memphis to the Western Conference Finals by thrashing the Clippers and the Thunder, and he gets canned? What gives? Also, why hasn’t anyone picked him up yet?

As for the players: love Bledsoe coming to the Suns, even though I don’t know how long he’ll be there. At least he’ll be exciting. Redick on the Clips will be devastating; he’ll have tons of open shots, and can be on the floor in crunch time because of his free throw percentage. Plus, Doc could run out a small ball lineup of Paul, Crawford, Redick, Barnes/Bullock, and Griffin. Jarrett Jack signed with the Cavs, giving them guard depth, and taking pressure of Kyrie to score all the time. I’m not sure why Kyle Korver resigned with the Hawks; like Redick, he’s a classic “sign with a contender to give them instant three point shooting off the bench” guy--I mean, look at what Ray Allen just did, he could have been useful! Also don’t know why the Bucks signed OJ Mayo when it seems like they are trying to tank. Now they’ll be in no man’s land next year, with a pick like number nine in the draft.

Now for the big names. The Dwight Howard saga is finally over as it seems like he will sign with Houston, unless he changes his mind right before he signs his contract. I like this move for him, even though I dislike Dwight himself. They immediately become a contender, although the West is a gauntlet, but any team with Dwight and James Harden with some pieces surrounding them should be enough to get a top four seed. Josh Smith signed with the Pistons, who will have a pleasantly delightful team next season and should make the playoffs with a lineup that includes Knight, Caldwell-Pope, Smith, Monroe, and Drummond. Spacing will be a problem but that starting five is solid, especially the frontcourt. Andre Iguodala signed with the Warriors which is huge, and will keep them relevant. Their small ball lineup will be devastating, with Curry, Thompson, Iggy, Barnes, and Lee. Iguodala brings defense, athleticism, and leadership, and even though they aren’t that deep, the Warriors will be exciting and a team to be reckoned with next season. Side note: oh my god, look at the West for next year. Spurs, Thunder, Grizzlies, Rockets, Warriors, Nuggets (maybe), Clippers, a possible breakout for the Trail Blazers (they should pull a Rays and drop the “Trail”), T-Wolves, and the Pelicans (!). What a loaded conference. Finally, we come to the Boston-Nets trade that sent Paul Pierce and KG over to Brooklyn. It made me really sad when the announcement came out, because those Boston teams were so fun to root for, and had so much heart. Even when they were starting to fall apart in 2012, they still pushed the Heat to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals after leading 3-2. However, Brooklyn just got a lot scarier. Depth will be a problem of some sort, but Pierce and Garnett only have to be the fourth and fifth scoring options on that team if they need to be. The starting five of Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, and Lopez can take on the Heat right now and, if they commit to defense like they should with KG on the team, would probably come out on top against the starters of Miami. I’m not saying that the Nets will overtake the Heat in the Eastern Conference this year, but they will be a force. The obvious question mark with that team is Jason Kidd as head coach, which I’m still kind of stunned over. He is the biggest wild card/x factor of the Eastern Conference; if Kidd is somehow a naturally great coach, then this team could easily reach the ECF, or could just as easily be one and done if he struggles. One thing is for sure: I think that the Nets will be better than the Knicks.

Well, this post is Exhibit A of why I never say that my writings will be quick. Basketball is definitely on the rise, and next season is sure to be exciting. With many of the teams on the bottom tanking (allegedly) for better draft lottery odds, the Association will be very top-heavy, meaning that when the playoffs roll around, there are going to be incredible matchups starting in Round One and just getting better from there. I hope everyone enjoyed this season, and I can’t wait until the 2013-2014 edition of the NBA!