Official 2014 Week 1 Predictions

Week 1 Predictions

            Another year, another opportunity to practice picking football games with the point spread! Let’s get started with the Week One lines, and happy football.

            GB (+6) vs SEA – I don’t know why I thought that Seattle wouldn’t cover a game at home. Maybe I’m just rusty because it was the first game of the season. But not a great start; hopefully I’ll be smarter on Sunday!

            NO (-3.5) vs ATL – This line keeps rising as more and more people fall in love with the team I picked to win the Super Bowl in June. It’s not reassuring when the whole public is on one team to win it all, but short-term, I love the Saints in the regular season for sure. New Orleans 27, Atlanta 17

            MIN (+3) vs STL – This game is the perfect case of literally anything could happen and it wouldn’t be surprising. For now, I’ll take the team with Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson. Minnesota 24, St. Louis 20

            CLE vs PIT (-6.5) – The Steelers at home in an opener against a young QB. Lock it in. Cleveland 13, Pittsburgh 24

            JAC (+10) vs PHI – The Jags aren’t that bad, and you’re getting double digits. Close your eyes and take it. Jacksonville 17, Philadelphia 26

            OAK (+7) vs NYJ – I love the Jets in this game. But are they good enough to be favored over anyone by a full touchdown? I kind of like Derek Carr! But still give me the Jets straight up. Oakland 20, New York 24

            CIN vs BAL (-1) – Coin flip game. I love the Ravens and hate the Bengals, especially in Baltimore. Cincinnati 21, Baltimore 24

            BUF (+7) vs CHI – I’ve been hearing all week that ALL the money is going on the Bears this week…the Bills love running the football and Chicago was atrocious at stopping the run last year. But I’m in on the Bears this year, and I think they pull out a tighter-than-expected contest. Buffalo 23, Chicago 27

            WAS vs HOU (-3) – Gotta see it to believe it with RGIII. For now I’ll take the home team that has Foster, Johnson, Clowney, and Watt. Washington 17, Houston 20

            TEN (+3.5) vs KC – The Chiefs seem due for a regression year after their defense got torched following a 9-0 start. If the Titans can contain Jamaal Charles, I think Jake Locker is good enough to put points on the board and pull off the UPSET ALERT of Week One. Tennessee 21, Kansas City 16

            NE (-4.5) vs MIA – Feels like a lot of points for a team that plays the Patriots really well, but I can’t go against New England in the opener right? I’m all in on Gronk and Vareen this year, and I’d bet on this team to start out 1-0. New England 27, Miami 20

            CAR vs TB (-3) – Huge swing to -3 for Tampa, but I still like it. I’m not as high on the Bucs as some other people, but I still think that they are more talented than the Panthers right now, especially with Cam being banged up. Big start for Lovie Smith in his first game. Carolina 13, Tampa Bay 23

            SF (-3.5) vs DAL – Because why would you put yourself in a position to root for the Cowboys defense? San Francisco 31, Dallas 27

            IND (+8) vs DEN – Just like Seattle, I don’t know why I’m going against the Broncos at home in a primetime opener. But I love Andrew Luck and I think that he can keep enough pace to make it worth taking the points. Indianapolis 27, Denver 34

            NYG vs DET (-6.5) – I want to take the Giants so bad in this one, but they have looked so bad in the preseason, and the Lions are deadly in a dome. I think they will come out on Monday Night and thrash the G-Men, but I hope not. New York 17, Detroit 34

            SD (+3) vs ARI – The Chargers are going to be really, really good this year and even though I picked both these teams to finish 10-6, someone has to lose this first one. I’d be more scared picking the team who has already lost Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington, and quite possibly Andre Ellington. Go Chargers Go. San Diego 27, Arizona 20

            Lock of the Week: PIT (-6.5)

Official 2014 NFL Predictions

              The brand new NFL season is upon us, and therefore it’s time for my 2014 NFL predictions! In the past, I’ve done team by team previews but this time you’ll only have to read one huge piece that will go over records, stats, bets, and of course, playoff predictions. 2013 was the year of Peyton Manning until the Seahawks put on a dominating show in the Super Bowl. Who do I think will still be playing in January for a chance to win the Lombardi Trophy this time around? Let’s get right to it, with my standings predictions.

AFC

West                                         North                                                South                             East

DEN   12-4                             PIT      10-6                               IND    11-5                       NE      11-5

SD       10-6                            BAL    9-7                                  TEN   8-8                         NYJ    9-7

KC       6-10                            CIN     8-8                                  HOU   7-9                       MIA    8-8

OAK   4-12                             CLE    5-11                                 JAC    5-11                       BUF    6-10

NFC

West                                         North                                                South                              East

SEA    11-5                             GB      11-5                                  NO      12-4                     PHI     9-7

ARI     10-6                           CHI     10-6                                 TB       8-8                      WAS   8-8

SF       9-7                             DET    9-7                                    ATL    7-9                       NYG   7-9

STL     7-9                            MIN    6-10                                  CAR    6-10                    DAL    6-10

            My playoff predictions will be at the end of the post, but here are all my regular season projections for the 32 teams. Some notable results are a lot of the second place finishers in their respective divisions: the Jets, Titans, Cardinals, Bucs, and Washington. The Steelers and Saints are the only new division winners. A few teams that are one year away from being competitive are Buffalo, St. Louis, Minnesota, and Jacksonville. Keep an eye out for them in 2015.

Player Predictions

Arizona Cardinals: Many people are calling for the breakout of Andre Ellington, but I think that Michael Floyd will make the biggest leap this season, outperforming Larry Fitzgerald with 70+ receptions, 1,000 yards, and 7-8 TDs.

Atlanta Falcons: Paul Worrilow will finish top 5 in tackles in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens: Torrey Smith will have 75 receptions, 1,250 yards, and 8 touchdowns, while Justin Tucker leads the NFL in field goals made.

Buffalo Bills: CJ Spiller tops 1,500 yards from scrimmage, but Fred Jackson still has more TDs. Sammy Watkins, sure to be great in the future, will have at most five touchdowns.

Carolina Panthers: D/ST in fantasy will drop out of the top 10.

Chicago Bears: Matt Forte will fall just shy of 2,000 yards from scrimmage, and Jay Cutler will throw for less than 12 interceptions.

Cincinnati Bengals: No one besides AJ Green will have more than 6 receiving TDs. Vontaze Burfict racks up over 150 tackles again.

Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel will start 8 games this season. In those games, the Browns will be 3-5. Manziel: 13 pass TDs, 3 rush TDs, 11 turnovers.

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys will have the worst defense. Ever. Therefore, Romo will throw for 4,200 yards and 30 TDs, 14 to Dez Bryant.

Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning will NOT throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns again. 4,500 yards and 37 TDs sounds about right, with 14 picks.

Detroit Lions: Joique Bell will have more rushes, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, and total TDs than Reggie Bush.

Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, and Jordy Nelson all finish top 4 at their fantasy position this year. Lacy rushes for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. Neither Clay Matthews nor Julius Peppers will get to 10 sacks, but the Pack will lead the NFL in interceptions.

Houston Texans: Clowney and JJ Watt combine for 22 sacks. DeAndre Hopkins will have more TDs than Andre Johnson.

Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck throws for 4,000 yards, 28 touchdowns plus a couple of more rushing, and finishes third in the MVP voting (but first in my heart).

Jacksonville Jaguars: The defense is ranked in the top half of the league. Toby Gerhart rushes for 1,000 yards, and Blake Bortles will lead this team to the playoffs within the next three years.

Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles regresses in almost all of the significant statistics, and this team will have a turnover margin of +5 or worse.

Miami Dolphins: Olivier Vernon will out-sack Cameron Wake 11 to 9.

Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater starts at least 4 games and will have twice as many TDs as INTs. Cordarrelle Patterson will be the latest Norv Turner beneficiary, finishing with 72 receptions, 1,289 yards, and 10 total TD.

New England Patriots: Three-part prediction: Shane Vareen leads all RB in receptions, and gets 1,200 total yards and 10 total TD; Rob Gronkowski plays at least 14 games, and catches at least 14 TD; Chandler Jones will lead the NFL in sacks and will finish in the top three of Defensive Player of the Year voting (maybe even winning it!).

New Orleans Saints: Defense finishes in the top 5 overall and in turnovers forced. Mark Ingram will rush for 8 touchdowns.

New York Giants: Eli Manning will throw for less than 15 interceptions but also less than 25 touchdowns. Reuben Randle leads the team in TDs.

New York Jets: Geno Smith throws 22 TD and runs for four more. Combined with under 15 turnovers and a top 5 defense, they make the playoffs!

Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr will only win 4 games as a starter but will prove he belongs with 20-25 touchdown passes. Rookie Khalil Mack (from the UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO!!!!!!!!!!!!!) records double-digit sacks.

Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Foles will not throw for more than 27 touchdowns or less than 10 interceptions. Jordan Matthews will have over 50 receptions and will be the number one receiver by next season.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Antonio Brown leads the NFL in receptions, while Ryan Shazier wins defensive rookie of the year with over 130 tackles.

San Diego Chargers: Ladarius Green has more receiving TDs than Antonio Gates, but not receptions or yardage. Keenan Allen will almost replicate his rookie season, with about a 70-1,100-8 split.

San Francisco 49ers: Carlos Hyde finishes with more TD than Vernon Davis (we’ll see if that’s a good or bad thing), Michael Crabtree records 80 catches and 8 touchdowns, and the defense will fall out of the top 8 or so.

Seattle Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch has one more year of 1,200 and 12 in him, and Earl Thomas has more INTs than Richard Sherman. Percy Harvin will not lead the team in any receiving categories.

St. Louis Rams: Defense will lead the league in sacks and finish in the top 3 overall, but the offense will rank no better than 25^th.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Doug Martin will not get to 700 rush yards or 5 touchdowns. The defense will be top seven and Lavonte David will win Defensive Player of the Year in year one of Lovie Smith.

Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker, if healthy, will have 3,000 passing yards and 25 total TDs. Justin Hunter will lead the team in receiving touchdowns.

Washington: Robert Griffin III will have 4,000 total yards and 25 touchdowns. Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson each have 1,000 yards and 5+ touchdowns. Future Pro Bowler: Trent Murphy, keep an eye out for him.

Playoff Predictions

AFC

1^st Round: New York Jets 17, Indianapolis 27; San Diego 24, Pittsburgh 21

2^nd Round: San Diego 31, Denver 28; Indianapolis 27, New England 34

AFC Championship: San Diego 20, New England 26

            NFC

1^st Round: Arizona 13, Green Bay 27; Chicago 31, Philadelphia 30

2^nd Round: Chicago 24, New Orleans 34; Green Bay 24, Seattle 23

NFC Championship: Green Bay 20, New Orleans 24

Super Bowl

New England 24, New Orleans 27

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

            I’ve been thinking it for months now, and I’m sticking with my gut: the New Orleans Saints will win the Super Bowl, giving Drew Brees his second ring. However, I think the defense will have a much more important role than people realize. Cameron Jordan is a monster pass rusher, and the they run out arguably the league’s best safety duo outside of Seattle in Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd. They were already one of the best units in the NFL, even without scoring a single touchdown on defense and special teams last year. Drew Brees will have his usual historic season, utilizing more outside speed this time around with Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills. Their regular season schedule is relatively easy, and I think being able to secure home field in the daunting NFC is a HUGE advantage in making a Super Bowl run. I think that the New Orleans Saints are the most complete team in the NFL this year, and that’s why I think they will finish the season by lifting the Lombardi Trophy.

Bets

            I’ve saved the best section of the predictions for last! Even though I’d be able to do it, I want to wait until I start my career to actually put money down on these bets, but the following are the wagers I’d consider making. Remember, many of these will be VALUE bets, not necessarily what I think will definitely happen. So without further ado, here are my favorite bets that I’ve found, courtesy of sportsbook.com.

·      Jordy Nelson over 1400 receiving yards (+600)

·      Antonio Brown over 100 yards receiving in at least 7 games (+800)

·      Drew Brees throws for 300 yards every game (+12500!!!!!)

·      First Coach Fired: Dennis Allen, OAK (+450)

·      Worst Team: Dallas Cowboys (+1800) – If Romo’s back acts up…

·      Defensive Player of the Year: Lavonte David (+2000), Earl Thomas (+3500), Chandler Jones (dark horse)

·      Defensive Rookie of the Year: Khalil Mack (+700), Ryan Shazier (+1000)

·      Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jordan Matthews (+1200)

·      MVP: ANDREW LUCK (+1500) – Think Rodgers (+500) will win

·      To Win the Super Bowl: Saints (+1100), Colts (+2800) – Maybe Andrew Luck is just better than everyone at football

·      Possible Super Bowl Matchups: SAINTS vs. PATRIOTS (+2500!!!!!), Packers/Saints vs. Colts (+8000)

            That’s going to finally wrap up my official 2014 NFL predictions post. I’ll be back soon to once again start my weekly column of picking games with the point spread, a task I’ll hopefully improve on from last year. To recap, here are the things you should be looking for this football season: Denver and New Orleans will be the top seeds in each conference; the Steelers, Jets, Cardinals, and Bears will be the new teams in the playoffs; things to watch out for in the future: Jordan Matthews, Trent Murphy, the Jags with Blake Bortles; the breakouts of Shazier, Patterson, and Chandler Jones; the semi-breakouts of Michael Floyd, DeAndre Hopkins, and Shane Vareen; Before losing to the Saints in the NFC Championship, Aaron Rodgers will play the game of his life in Seattle to take down the Seahawks; My big sleeper pick: look for the Chargers to make the AFC Championship Game! I don’t know why I agree with Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal on this, but it feels right. I may hate them, but the Patriots will be great this year, especially Vareen, Gronk, Jones, and Revis; and, of course, the New Orleans Saints will be your Super Bowl Champions. Enjoy the season!