Divisional Round Preview
What a wild (card) weekend! Three of the four games were fabulous and exciting, and the outcomes were just as thrilling as three underdogs (if you include the Colts, who were bet down to +2.5 by the time Saturday rolled around) were victorious. I was 2-0 in my AFC picks (Colts and Chargers), but 0-2 predicting the NFC (Eagles and Packers). The latter two teams were my eventual NFC Championship Game matchup, so I’m automatically 0-2 in advance for this weekend already, but maybe I’ll get the weekly picks correct. So here are some quick thoughts about the opening round before I preview our upcoming games.
First, what a comeback by the Indianapolis Colts! Andrew Luck, after starting out miserably, led a phenomenal comeback from 28 points down to eventually win a surprising shootout, 45-44. In that final quarter and a half, we all witnessed the potential greatness that has yet to come from Luck, who is said to be the best quarterback prospect since Manning and Elway. He obviously still has a lot of growth and learning to do, but the display of heart, determination, and poise he showed as a second-year QB was awe-inspiring. He has all the skill and intangibles to become one of the greatest ever, and while he is nowhere near that point yet, that upside is real. The two plays from Saturday’s game to prove that were his fumble recovery into a touchdown that displayed his presence of mind, and his final touchdown pass to T.Y. Hilton which was an absolute laser beam off his arm. I’ve been raving for a year and a half about how it was the right choice to take him over RGIII, and with that performance last Saturday, I believe that argument has been officially put to rest. Congratulations to Andrew Luck on his first playoff win, and there will be many more to come. As for the Chiefs, that loss is inexcusable. An offense that was underwhelming all year had put up 38 points early in the third quarter without Jamaal Charles! Yes, they got bad luck from injuries, but for Alex Smith to be absolutely brilliant (which should not be forgotten) for a half and then not be able to get enough first downs just to keep the clock rolling late? I mean, they were up four touchdowns and then then couldn’t even move the ball! As dominating as their defense was during the season, they really blew it in this one. If the offense isn’t moving the ball and chewing clock, it’s up to the defense to create one final turnover (or at least enough stops) to put the nail in the coffin and stay alive in the playoffs. How did they disappear? Much blame has to be given to the play calling and clock management of Andy Reid (how many times have we said that before?), which ruined an awesome first half. In the end, the Colts made more plays at the end of the game, and they deserved to win. We saw their ceiling to close that game, and it is out of reach from anything Kansas City could do moving forward.
I’ll be able to sum up the other three games much more quickly. On Saturday night, New Orleans proved that they could win a road playoff game in a highly contested matchup with Philadelphia. The Eagles didn’t play up to their normal level from the past couple of months, but in the first playoffs for Nick Foles and Chip Kelly, they performed as well as can be expected. This year put Philly on the map, and they will have to be considered the NFC East favorites heading into next season. This game was more about the Saints, and Drew Brees overcoming a subpar game to still lead the team to victory at the end. Brees and Payton were better than Foles and Kelly, and also deserve to be playing this coming weekend. Unfortunately for them, they have to go back up to Seattle, where they really got their asses handed to them on a rowdy Monday Night. More on that game later on.
The Chargers played a very impressive game on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati by taking down the Bengals 27-10. This was surprising to a lot of people, but not to me if you’ve read anything I’ve ever written. I picked them to win outright, and it was really quite obvious. San Diego was the “team of destiny” heading into the postseason, as the team that was insanely lucky just to be there, and those teams ALWAYS win in the first round. This is very similar to the NCAA tournament where one of the winners of the stupid play-in games continues their momentum into the main bracket. Additionally, the Bengals may win games in the regular season (many by beating inferior teams at home), but they had proven nothing in the playoffs, and have a knack of disappointing you when you actually think they might be good. I said this in the Week 16 game leading up to their loss to Pittsburgh on a nationally televised game. The combo of Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis cannot win a big game, and this was proven once again, even in a home game against an inferior opponent. I was actually more confident in Andrew Luck to win his playoff game when they were down 28 points than I was in Andy Dalton even when they were up 10-7 at the half. The Chargers are legitimately scary, and there’s a real chance they can take down Denver.
Finally, the 49ers and Packers ended the weekend with another nail-biter that ended the same way as their previous matchups: Colin Kaepernick (sleeveless!!!) taking control and winning the game. In incredibly frigid conditions, the Niners were tough enough to hang around and although Kaep did not have a great passing day, he was a menace on the ground, including the final third down run to get his team into field goal range. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were stifled in the first half, and although they performed much better later on, they couldn’t quite finish it off. But don’t worry, Green Bay---your team is going to be in at least the NFC Championship Game next year, you can mark that down. One final note to all the debbie downers out there on television: Yes, of course the Packers held on that crazy escape play by Aaron Rodgers, but who cares? It doesn’t take away from the athleticism of Rodgers, and it didn’t cost the 49ers the game, so stop harping on it. And now, finally, to this week’s action.
NO vs SEA (-7.5) - Yeah, the win for the Saints was great. Whatever. This line was actually bet down to seven and a half because so many people are riding the Saints. These people will lose money. Have people forgotten the 34-7 beatdown that the Seahawks put on the Saints just a few weeks ago? The crowd in Seattle is probably going to set ANOTHER noise record now that it is the playoffs, and while a win in Philly is nice, traveling up to the Pacific Northwest is a whole different deal. The Seahawks feast on people there, and with everyone praising the Saints and especially the Niners, the dominance of the Hawks has actually gone under the radar. This will change immediately. I know I had the Seahawks losing to the Packers in my future playoff predictions last week, but that was exclusively because I think the Packers are terrifying, and they will be next year. I am not, however, afraid of the Saints. There are three lines this week of at least a touchdown, and this is the one I would feel most confident betting the favorite. It might not be another 27-point smackdown, but the Seahawks will be on point and take control early and often. Three turnovers for Brees, and only one for Russell Wilson, with three total touchdowns for the latter. New Orleans 17, Seattle 31
IND (+7) vs NE - I already gave all my praise to Andrew Luck and the Colts in the opening paragraphs, so I won’t continue that here. I really have no idea how this one is going to play out, but there is only one scenario I’m very confident about not happening: a Colts blowout win. The Patriots suffered ANOTHER major injury this week in losing Brandon Spikes, which is crushing to their front lines. I don’t know how they keep continuing to win time after time, but even I will say that the performances by Brady and Belichick this season have been masterful. The Pats have only lost in this round once with Brady (2010 to the J-E-T-S!), but I say that the Colts put up a fight, even if I think that they will ultimately fall short of taking down New England. But I’ll ask you this: after watching the Colts come back from down 28 to win a game outright, how big of a lead are you comfortable with the Patriots having without fearing that Andrew Luck can get back to within seven? I don’t know if there is one. And since that’s the case, I’m taking the Colts and the seven points. However, while Andrew Luck is and will be great, they won’t have enough firepower to keep pace. Brady will be surgical, and complete 70% of his passes with one of those quick QB sneaks for a touchdown. I’m predicting another big game (I was right about him in Week 17!) for Julian Edelman. Belichick will set his gameplan around stopping Hilton, so for the Colts, the guy who needs to step up for them to get a victory, besides Donald Brown, is Coby Fleener controlling the middle of the field. Indianapolis 27, New England 30
SF (-1.5) vs CAR - This is a pick completely with my head and not with my heart, because I want with all my heart for the Carolina Panthers to come out of the NFC. However, there is no way that we are going to have both one and two seeds in the conference championship games, and the 49ers have proven that they can win playoff games on the road. I’m confident in the Panthers because they already beat the Niners this year in San Fran, but they will be playing a much hotter team this time around and be with only a limited Steve Smith. Furthermore, I feel like we are destined to have a San Francisco vs Seattle NFC Championship. It’s going to happen, and I’m telling you to quite literally bet on it right now. The Carolina Panthers have had a miraculous transformation with the maturation of Cam Newton, the growth of balls by Ron Rivera, and the sudden scariness of their defense as a unit. As of right now they are my pick to face and lose to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game next year. But they aren’t build to win it all just yet. They are missing a couple of key pieces, namely a young stud receiver (sorry Brandon LaFell, you’re not that guy), and depth in the secondary. They will be back next year I have no doubt, but the 49ers are better than them right now, especially with Michael Crabtree back (early prediction: top 10 fantasy receiver next year). We are going to get a San Francisco vs Seattle round three, which will surely be just as thrilling as the first two. I’m picking the Niners, but will be rooting for the Panthers. I’ll take Cam with more rushing yards than Kaepernick, but Kaep with more total touchdowns. San Francisco 23, Carolina 17
SD (+9.5) vs DEN - It’s probably stupid that I’m betting against (at least, with the points) Brady and Manning at home in the playoffs. But odds are, one of these favorites is going to lose, and this is a big line. The Chargers are on a roll, and they just beat the Broncos in Denver a month ago. Sure, the circumstances have changed, but the point is that the line for that previous matchup was 9 points and San Diego won outright. Now you have the Bolts streaking, a recent road win in their matchup, the Peyton Manning playing outdoors factor, and the line is half a point higher? There is always a round two upset, and honestly, this game probably has the best potential to be it, for all the reasons listed above. I’m terrified that the Broncos might lose this game, but I don’t want to think that way because of how badly I want Peyton to win a second ring. Even if he does fall short of that goal, it can NOT be in his first game, at home against the once 5-7 Chargers. Their defense is soft without Von Miller in there, and we’re talking about a unit that couldn’t stop San Diego even when he was playing. The one scary aspect of this pick is going against the 600-point scoring Broncos, in the chill of the playoffs I don’t think Peyton has what it takes to simply run away from a team. The Chargers are going to hang around by controlling the clock and Philip Rivers being efficient, and I think they keep it close enough. In the end, I can’t call the upset because I’ll be rooting for Denver, but just know that I’ll be freaking out over this one until the game is over. There are always upsets this weekend and I ended up not picking any, but if there is one I think it will be one the AFC side. But hopefully not in this one. Rivers throws for 262 yards and 3 TDs, and Peyton will have 338 yards and 3 scores, two to Eric Decker. San Diego 24, Denver 31
Lock of the Week: SEA (-7)
Performance of the Week: Russell Wilson, Coby Fleener, Michael Crabtree, NaVorro Bowman, Eric Decker, Eric
Weddle
Surprise of the Week: Golden Globe predictions! 12 Years a Slave wins for Best Drama and Best Actor, Wolf of Wall Street wins for Best Comedy and Best Actor. Go Leo!
