Official 2013 MLB Predictions

Official 2013 MLB Predictions

We are at the end of March, which can mean only one thing: there’s a new season of baseball around the corner. America’s pastime is about to begin with a new chapter in its history, so it’s time for me to whip out all my Yankee good luck charms in the hopes that 2013 will be the year of 28. People say that the two most exciting words in all of sports are “Game Seven”, but there are another two words that have to be ranked right behind: “Opening Day”. There’s no thrill quite like the beginning of a new baseball season, with spring in the air, hot dogs to be eaten, and a beautiful game to be played. If you don’t know already, I am a diehard Yankee fan, which means that I am absolutely spoiled and biased, but as I write down my thoughts for you throughout the year, I’ll try to make sure my opinions are as objective and true as possible...that’s right, “try”. I am planning on making a huge Yankees piece before the season starts on Monday, as well as a post about the rise and fall of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry throughout my lifetime, but this column is not for those stories. In this piece, I am going to make all of my predictions, from standings to statistics, and of course, the World Series Champion. So far I have correctly predicted one World Series exactly from before the season: in 2009, I picked the Yankees to beat the Phillies in six games, which they did. That did bring up an awkward situation when the Bombers were up 3-1 and I didn’t know whether or not I wanted them to win or lose Game 5. I have never correctly predicted another World Series because I have fallen into the trap of picking the Yankees every single year. However, that isn’t too much of a homer pick, because they are always a top team season after season. This season has a different feel to it, so you may be surprised of who I’m picking to win the World Series this year...to prove that point, I’ll tell you that I still don’t know who my winner will be as I’m writing this column right now. We’ll get there by the end of the piece, I promise. So here’s how I’m making this happen: I’m going to start with regular season standings, then go through a bunch of player statistics, give out some awards, and finish up with the playoffs. I’m ready to go. I hope you are too. Enjoy.

American League

West                                                                          Central                                                                  East

OAK:   93-69                                                          DET:  94-68                                                      TB:    93-69

LAA:   90-72                                                           CLE:  85-77                                                         NYY: 91-71

SEA:   86-76                                                           KC:     81-81                                                        BAL:  87-75

TEX:   84-78                                                              CWS:  79-83                                                      TOR:  83-79

HOU:  54-108                                                         MIN:  61-101                                                      BOS:  78-84

 National League

West                                                                          Central                                                                   East

SF:    93-69                                                            CIN:   94-68                                                        WAS:   97-65

ARI:  88-74                                                             STL:   86-76                                                         ATL:    90-72

LAD: 85-77                                                            PIT:   82-80                                                         PHI:     83-79

SD:    75-87                                                             MIL:  77-85                                                         NYM:   76-86

COL: 68-94                                                            CHC:  66-96                                                        MIA:    61-101

There are my complete standings for all 30 teams. I have five of the six division champions repeating, which I am not a fan of, but I just feel like there are a select few teams that are just a notch better than everyone else. The National League in particular is particularly chalky, with mainly the top teams staying there. The two divisions to watch are the American League West and East. Even with the addition of Josh Hamilton, I still am not a big believer in the Angels, although I still think that they are talented enough to actually make the playoffs this year. I think Oakland will play well enough with their young pitchers and stay on top of the West. The balance of power will shift a little bit in the middle of the division; I think that Seattle is vastly underrated and Texas is slightly overrated. While the Mariners might not have enough talent in the tank to overtake the Rangers in the standings, I put them there anyway to drive home the point. The AL East, meanwhile, is a clusterf**k from top to bottom. I could make an argument for any team finishing first and any team finishing last. I feel that my predictions for this division are fair, understandable, and probable. The Rays will come out on top because of their consistency and their great young pitching. The question for them is their offense, but I think that Tampa will be able to score enough runs lead by a monster year from Evan Longoria. I think the Yankees will finish second, but that will depend on how quickly their stars return from injury. If Tex and Granderson are back by the end of May, then I think the Empire will be able to go on a tear for the last four months. The Orioles and Blue Jays are both wild cards here (as in their unpredictability, not getting a spot in the playoffs). The O’s had a magical season last year, and I don’t think too much of it was a fluke. The 29-9 record in one run games will not be repeated, but there’s enough talent and will there to be in playoff contention. The Blue Jays, on paper, are loaded. But I think the injury bug will bite them, and the players they acquired will not play up to expectations. They have a lot of talent, but they’re one of those “I’ll believe it when I see it” teams. Finally there’s the Red Sox, and that is not out of spite. They are a notoriously injured team, with less talent than years past. Maybe if they were in the Central, the Sox might be as high as number two, but it’ll be tough for them to compete in a gauntlet of a division. In other news, I expect the Pirates to FINALLY finish with a winning record for the first time since 1992. The Diamondbacks will be the surprise team in the National League, not only to finish in second in the West over the Dodgers, but to secure a wild card slot as well. The Dodgers are becoming the Yankees of the West, and I don’t mean that as a compliment. They have a bunch of overpaid players, and only a couple of whom are healthy and in their primes (Kemp, Kershaw, Greinke). So to recap, here are my playoff teams: TB, DET, OAK, NYY vs LAA in the American League, and WAS, CIN, SF, ATL vs ARI in the National League.

Statistics

American League

Jeter: .309, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 16 SB                                    
Cano: .311, 34 HR, 105 RBI                                               

CC Sabathia: 19-8, 3.41 ERA     

M. Rivera: 43 S, 1.87 ERA                                           
A Jones: .284, 31 HR, 89 RBI, 17 SB

Pedroia: .298, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 22 SB

Longoria: .309, 37 HR, 116 RBI

Price: 18-6, 3.01 ERA

Reyes: .282, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 39 SB
Bautista: .274, 40 HR, 102 RBI

RA Dickey: 14-11, 3.68 ERA
Mig Cabrera: .323, 38 HR, 121 RBI

Fielder: .297, 35 HR, 113 RBI

A Jackson: .291, 17 HR, 62 RBI, 24 SB

Verlander: 21-7, 2.71 ERA                                                   

M. Scherzer: 16-9, 3.55 ERA

Butler: .309, 26 HR, 97 RBI

Shields: 16-11, 3.56 ERA
Mauer: .318, 12 HR, 77 RBI

Swisher: .265, 25 HR, 80 RBI

Sale: 15-10, 3.31 ERA                                                           
Trout: .312, 27 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB

Pujols: .302, 33 HR, 109 RBI

Hamilton: .286, 34 HR, 111 RBI
Weaver: 18-8, 2.69 ERA

Cespedes: .294, 29 HR, 93 RBI, 18 SB

B Anderson: 17-10, 2.83 ERA

Hernandez: 17-7, 2.43 ERA

Pena: .222, 26 HR, 74 RBI

Beltre: .289, 29 HR, 94 RBI

Darvish: 15-8, 3.72 ERA

National League

Wright: .308, 24 HR, 101 RBI, 21 SB
Hamels: 16-9, 3.11 ERA
Lee: 17-8, 3.01 ERA

Stanton: .281, 39 HR, 102 RBI

Harper: .282, 31 HR, 84 RBI, 22 SB                             

Strasburg: 20-7, 2.72 ERA                                               

J. Zimmerman: 14-8, 2.93 ERA

G. Gonzalez: 16-8, 3.20 ERA

Heyward: .279, 29 HR, 91 RBI, 17 SB

BJ Upton: .264, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 34 SB

J Upton: .304, 27 HR, 95 RBI, 24 SB

Freeman: .281, 32 HR, 107 RBI

Castro: .287, 17 HR, 77 RBI, 31 SB

Votto: .323, 34 HR, 115 RBI                                             
J. Bruce: .268, 36 HR, 101 RBI

Cueto: 18-9, 3.08 ERA

Braun: .318, 38 HR, 119 RBI, 30 SB

McCutchen: .313, 29 HR, 102 RBI, 24 SB
A Craig: .312, 28 HR, 106 RBI
Wainwright: 15-10, 3.35 ERA

M Montero: .291, 22 HR, 86 RBI

P Goldschmidt: .285, 25 HR, 91 RBI, 15 SB

Tulowitzki: .284, 21 HR, 74 RBI, 7 SB

C Gonzalez: .293, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 23 SB
Kemp: .297, 33 HR, 92 RBI, 22 SB

A Gonzalez: .295, 27 HR, 102 RBI

H Ramirez: .278, 22 HR, 65 RBI, 10 SB

Kershaw: 19-6, 2.64 ERA

Greinke: 15-9, 3.18 ERA

Headley: .285, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 14 SB

Posey: .331, 26 HR, 107 RBI

Sandoval: .297, 21 HR, 77 RBI

Pence: .279, 24 HR, 83 RBI

Cain: 17-8, 2.73 ERA

Vogelsong: 15-10, 3.29 ERA

Bumgarner: 15-9, 3.46 ERA

Those are all my stats predictions for the 2013 MLB season. Those enough numbers for you? I feel like I hit on everyone important. We’ll see how close I am! Time to go through all my awards and bold predictions.

Awards

MVP

AL: E. Longoria, 3B, TB

NL: J. Votto, 1B, CIN

CY Young

AL: F. Hernandez, SP, SEA

NL: S. Strasburg, SP, WAS

Coach of the Year

AL: Joe Madden, TB

NL: Kirk Gibson, ARI

Home Run Derby Champion

Bautista, TOR

All Star Game MVP

McCutchen, PIT

Team Stock Up

SEA, CLE, TB, ARI

Team Stock Down

TEX, CWS, TOR, LAD, MIL

Breakout Players

Anderson, A. Cobb, A. Craig, F. Freeman, M. Harvey, N. Walker, A. Simmons

Bold Predictions

1. TB wins the AL East, Longoria wins MVP
2. No NYY player hits 30 HR
3. The longest winning streak by any team will be 17 games
4. OAK wins AL West over LAA, SEA leapfrogs TEX in standings
5. PIT ends season with a winning record
6. WAS will have the best record in the MLB, Strasburg wins CY Young
7. The fastest pitch by Aroldis Chapman will be over 104.5 MPH
8. LAD misses the playoffs, ARI takes Wild Card
9. Max Scherzer leads the MLB in Ks
10. Jose Bautista leads the MLB in HR
11. The ATL OF will combine for 75+ HR and 75+ SB
12. There will be at least 1 notable name suspended for PEDs
13. A coach will be ejected over 3.5 times
14. TB will get no-hit this season (my bet: against James Shields and KC)
15. There will be 4 no-hitters/perfect games
16. A team will overcome an 8 game deficit down the stretch to make the playoffs
17. LAA will lead the MLB in runs scored
18. Mariano Rivera’s last inning will be 1-2-3
19. Under 3 coaches will be fired during the season
20. A position player will be the winning pitcher in a game

Playoffs

WC Play-in WC Play-in

LAA 3 ARI 4

NYY 5 ATL 3

ALDS NLDS

NYY     1            OAK  1                                                                                                        SF     2                    ARI  1 

DET     3           TB      3   CIN   3                   WAS  3

ALCS NLCS

TB        4 CIN   1

DET     2                                                                                                                                    WAS 4

World Series

WAS  2

TB     4

My 2013 MLB World Series Champions: Tampa Bay Rays. I think that this is just the year of the Rays. They are the best team in the brutal AL East, and they have the ingredients to win in October: great pitching, timely hitting, and a very smart, savvy manager. Evan Longoria and David Price will take over in October and give this team its first ever World Series title. This is historic for me because, like I said, this is the first time I’ve ever picked against the Yankees. Maybe it’ll be a reverse jinx. Anyway, I can’t wait for another great year of baseball. Good luck to everyone, and let’s go Yankees.

Beyond the Heat Streak

The End of the Streak, and Other NBA News and Notes

The title of this piece pretty much sums up what this column is going to be about. I wasn’t planning on writing about the NBA until the end of the regular season, but due to extenuating circumstances in the form of potential history, I’m jumping into it a couple of weeks early to give my opinions about some things. This will not be a season review extravaganza piece, but I do want to touch on Miami’s streak and some of my preseason predictions that are either coming true or falling into the gutter. Here we go.

First of all, I need to do something that pains me: give the Miami Heat a standing ovation. I hate this team. They are my second most hated team in sports only to the Patriots (this will be an upcoming post), and I think that they are easily the most arrogant, whiny team in the NBA today. However, their winning streak was halted by the Chicago Bulls last night at 27 games, and this feat must be applauded and appreciated. 27 games is ONE THIRD OF THE ENTIRE SEASON, and the Heat had not lost since February 1st. Or, in other terms, before the Super Bowl. The 27 games that they won consecutively, straight, in a row ended up accounting for the second longest winning streak in NBA history, behind the 33 of the 1971-72 Lakers. This run of terror has been the story of the season and will most likely be the second longest winning streak for at least another forty years. Their dominance over this stretch cannot be denied, and the quality of basketball they displayed could be used to fill a textbook.

        However, being that I despise this team (which is a story for another post), I do have to point out a couple of things that stood out to me that we should keep in the back of our minds when remembering this streak. First of all, Miami basically beat up on most of the East’s horrible teams, barely having to travel at all to take on the gauntlet of the Western Conference. While the streak consisted of a nearly even spread of 14 home games and 13 road games, the furthest west that the Heat had to travel was Oklahoma City. Now, winning at OKC is an impressive feat, but Miami never had to take on the top teams out west in their place. In fact, the best wins they have against the WC are against the Thunder, and home against the Clippers and Grizzlies. That’s it. And each of those three games were in the first half of the streak. Those are the only times the Heat played top 6 West teams, and only once did they have to play in a hostile environment. There were no games against the Spurs, no games in the elevated hellhole (for visiting teams) in Denver, and no pumped up hostile crowds in LA. I feel that this is an important point because it’s probable that the top 6 or 7 teams out west could all be the 2 seed in the East. So while 27 games in a row is incredibly impressive, it’s not inconceivable against lesser competition. Give the Spurs that schedule where they try really hard every night and they most likely rally off at least 24, potentially.

The other point I wanted to make is that there was a good amount of luck involved, which is always the case while any long streak is taking shape. It is amazing how many teams held leads late against the Heat and couldn’t close the deal. Now, of course, much of the credit as to be given to Miami for not laying down, but battling back and finding ways to win. However, there were at least seven times in which a team couldn’t close out Miami, which is a quarter of the games! Most notably, Cleveland blew leads twice(!), including a TWENTY-SEVEN POINT LEAD. Orlando and Philly each choked games away as well. And these are horrible teams. There was also the game in Boston in which the Celtics, playing without KG, held a 13 point lead with 7 minutes left and blew the win! How does that happen??? There are always comebacks during winning streaks, but it didn’t hurt that a quarter of the games were won by choking dogs. Twenty-seven points. Unbelievable.

Of course, like I said, the Heat were able to find ways to win, and it’s not their fault that the teams they were playing couldn’t score. I get that. A lot of what I said was just general ranting. But a major reason why I hate this team is because they don’t win or lose with class. And we saw a perfect example of that last night, when the Heat (most notably, LeBron) lost for the first time in two months and cried about the officiating. First of all, I watch a lot of Heat games, and the amount of calls they get (including violations they commit that go uncalled) is astounding. In the game against the Celtics a couple of weeks ago, LeBron took three steps from the three point line and threw down a dunk, but the travel wasn’t called. Even as Avery Bradley pleaded with the refs, and even though everyone and their mother could plainly see that it was a travel. And that’s just an obvious example. Flash back to last night. LeBron and co. have to know this: they are playing in Chicago, a team that is hungry, physical, and would love nothing more than ending this streak. They are without Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, and Rip Hamilton, among others. They are going to hit you. Hard. It’s this thing called old-school basketball, before the rules got changed to protect offensive players. It’s obvious that this is going to happen. So what happens? They hit LeBron. Hard. Duh. And after the loss, LeBron sits at his locker and says that he’s not crying about the calls, while he is precisely crying about the calls. He complained about Kirk Heinrich grabbing him and pulling him down in the first quarter. A guy who is half his size, and protecting himself as well as not letting LeBron throw the ball up at the rim for an And-1. Then in the fourth, in a tight game, he takes a hard foul from Taj Gibson on the shoulder that gets reverted from a flagrant foul to a common foul. Which I loved. LeBron always gets his superstar calls and what Gibson did was simply a hard foul. Man up and get over it. The game isn’t over. At least, it wasn’t until James decided he’d had enough, and catapulted himself into Carlos Boozer intentionally, picking up a flagrant foul. And if you don’t believe it was pre-emptive, go back and watch the highlight. LeBron looks at Boozer twice to make sure that he’s coming, and launched himself in the same manner that would have gotten an NFL safety penalized 15 yards and a $15,000 fine. It could easily have been an ejection, because there was obvious intent involved. So just because he’s frustrated, he gets to fling himself at people, because the poor baby is getting hit a little bit too hard? This is basketball. It’s physical. Not everybody is going to stand around like a punk and let you soar over them and dunk it. People hit back. Just accept the loss and move on instead of saying how the refs should give you even more calls. If the Gibson foul was a flagrant 1, then the foul on LeBron has to be a flagrant 2. It was uncalled for, had malice and intent, and is the definition of not a basketball play. Taj saw James driving to the basket, tried hitting the ball, and came down hard on LeBron’s shoulder instead. Boo hoo. If you’re going to stand there and flex your muscles like you’re a champion every time you make a dunk, then when people hit you, you have to deal with it, LeBron. Stop complaining. Same goes for Wade. Whenever he doesn’t get a call driving to the basket, he stands there with his arms thrown out instead of getting back on defense. Maybe instead of begging for more calls from the refs, the referees will actually grow some stones and hit these clowns with some technicals for arguing just as they would do with everyone else. I really hate these guys.

I’m done ranting about the Heat for now. In all seriousness, I do want to congratulate them one more time on reaching 27 in a row. The one compliment I will give them is that unlike some people with loads of talent, these guys show up to play every single night and bring 100% energy and focus, which is definitely something to be respected. But now I want to move on to a couple of other thoughts, which will definitely be a lot quicker. First, some praise for myself: I know they aren’t there yet, but before the season I picked the Denver Nuggets to make the Western Conference Finals. They just completed a winning streak of the own that lasted 15 games, and are currently battling the Clippers for the 3 seed. And recently, they’ve shown that they can both play with and beat the Thunder and the Spurs. Watch out for my boys in the mountains.

The last group of thoughts I want to bring up are about the Eastern Conference playoff picture. I know it’s only been one loss, but the Bulls just showed the rest of the league how to beat the Heat: with size and toughness. All the talking heads and TV personalities I’ve seen are basically giving Miami a free ride to the Finals. While the Heat are undoubtedly head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, I wouldn’t be too sold on them having an easy time in the playoffs. They might get through all three rounds in the East, but it doesn’t have to be easy. I have a thought in mind, and while it would never come to fruition, I love the possibilities that are implied by it. I have a message for the Boston Celtics: LOSE INTENTIONALLY DOWN THE STRETCH AND GO INTO THE PLAYOFFS AS THE 8 SEED IN THE EAST. I wish this would happen, but the Bucks are being stubborn and losing as well. No one wants to see a Heat-Bucks series. If the Celtics lose on purpose to get the 8 seed, then Miami could be looking at these series through the Eastern Conference: Boston, Chicago, and NY/Indiana. The Heat are more talented than any of these teams, but I just said how the formula to beat them is with size and physicality. Look again at the teams they would have to play. Tell me it’s not possible for the Heat to go down. And at the very least, even if Miami does make it though those series, they will be battered and bruised by the time a Western Conference Champion emerges.

Starting with the Celtics: this Boston team is a matchup nightmare for Miami, even without the firepower of Rajon Rondo. Kevin Garnett spreads the court on offense and patrols the middle of the floor on defense, where the Heat are vulnerable. The starting backcourt of Lee and Bradley is a cyclone of defensive energy, either of whom can match up with Dwayne Wade at the 2. The key, naturally, is Jeff Green, who can either disappear when you need him, or play out of his mind, with no discernible in between phase. He put up 40 on Miami just a couple of weeks ago, and can, at stretches, contain LeBron. The key word being “contain”, and not “stop”. The leadership of Paul Pierce is enough to get at least one win as well. This is most likely the bowing out of this Celtics era. They took Miami to seven games just last year in the Conference Finals, and have had historical seven game titanic battles over the last few seasons. The C’s were able to beat the Heat without Rondo when they found out he was lost for the season, and during Miami’s streak, Boston had another win before choking it away! They can play with Miami! Shouldn’t it be fitting that this Celtics team put up one final stand against Miami in the first round of the playoffs? One last hurrah, with hopefully seven brutally exciting games and one final chance to defeat their hated rivals? If I’m Boston, I’m considering this. Please, Boston. Take one final jump into the fire. For all of us.

Let’s just say that the Heat get past the Celtics in a long, physical first round series. Who’s in position to meet them in round two? That’s right, Chicago!!! The Bulls are currently slotted fifth in the East, on pace for a first round series against the Nets. I’d put my money on Chicago in that one. Remember, it was the Bulls, not the Heat, who were the number one seed in the East last year. I think they could handle the Nets, who have no one who knows how to win in the playoffs. Could you imagine a Heat-Bulls second round? Miami gets to play another hated rival who wants blood from the Heat, and has the tools to get it done. Remember, that game last night was won WITHOUT JOAKIM NOAH, THE BIGGEST HEAT HATER OF THEM ALL. It was won without Rip and Belinelli, who could give quality points out of the 2 spot. And it was won without the heart and soul of this team, Derrick Rose. This would be a gladiator series. Chicago could throw out a frontcourt of Deng, Butler, Boozer, Gibson, and Noah. If the Bulls could score enough points, this another series that could go the distance. Chicago has the ingredients, and the toughness. And what happens if Derrick Rose comes back and at the very least plays 20 minutes off the bench, adding firepower and a dynamic morale boost, which does count for something. The only concern regarding the Bulls is whether they would be able to score enough. They will not be afraid of Miami; they will pound them and make any drivers to the basket think twice before coming through the middle again. Just think of what the Heat might have to go through back-to-back: Boston and Chicago, the two teams that have tormented them over the years, relatively, anyway.

I would not be surprised to see Miami out of the playoffs by this point (ok, maybe a little surprised), but even if they advance to the Conference Finals, the road does not get easier. The two teams they could face are the Knicks and the Pacers, and even though I’m from New York, I think Indiana would be the better bet. The Knicks, however, can compete with the Heat, because if their shooters get hot, then it will be raining threes in the arena, as in the first two times these teams played. That series would come down to (besides the outside shooting) Carmelo Anthony deciding if he finally wants to take a series by the balls and will his team to the Finals, primarily by playing defense. That box has yet to be opened, though. As for Indiana, remember that it was this team who had a 2-1 lead with an advantage in the fourth game before Miami went all superhero on them. This year they are a year more experienced, and a year tougher. They also will not be afraid of the Heat and could give them an war. I happen to think that the Knicks have a better chance of beating the Heat, but the Pacers have a better chance of beating the Knicks, if that makes sense. But whoever meets Miami in the ECF, will be ready and equipped for a battle.

I know there is a lot here, and I’m not exactly predicting Miami to fall before making the NBA Finals. But here’s the point of everything I was trying to say in this piece: for everyone who thinks that the Heat have a clear run to the Finals, especially after this streak, think again. While the 27 in a row is no joke and will be remembered for decades, this team still needs a championship to validate the dominance. Otherwise it’ll be remembered as a long stretch of winning in the regular season that doesn’t really matter, a la the Patriots in 2007 or even the Broncos last year with 11 wins in a row heading into the playoffs. The Heat are vulnerable when they get pounded and frustrated, and it’s possible that the road to the Finals will be filled with guys who not only want to crush the Heat, but take it as a personal mission. If Miami could make it through the gauntlet that could potentially be Boston, Chicago, NY/Indiana, and whoever comes out of the loaded West, then that championship in addition to this 27 game winning streak could result in this year’s Heat being regarded as one of the 3-5 best teams in NBA history. At least. So while there is still a little ways to go before the playoffs start, there were many ramifications that Chicago’s win last night had. And I love my dream scenario, so remember Boston: fall to 8. Until next time, guys. Leave a comment. And may we have fantastic playoff basketball.

2013 MARCH MADNESS PREDICTIONS

March Madness Bracket-palooza Predictions

How’s everyone doing? It’s been a while since I wrote anything but that’s going to change with the basketball playoffs around the corner, along with MLB Opening Day, and the NFL Draft. First and foremost, however, this is March, which means only one thing: the Madness has returned. I’ve never written any college basketball pieces, so before I get started, here’s a little background information about me. This tournament is my favorite sporting event ever. Including professional sports. This is the best. The wild excitement that takes place is unparalleled because of multiple games taking place at the same time, with many of them coming down to the final minutes. Is a top seed about to fall? Is your bracket about to be busted? Is a team going on a dreamlike Cinderella run through the tourney? This spectacle truly is madness, providing jaw-dropping twists and turns. Last year, we saw not one but TWO 15 seeds take down 2 seeds on the first day of the tournament, one of whom (Missouri) I had in the Final Four. Perhaps this is the year we finally see a 16 make history by defeating a 1? You never know. My favorite college program in any sport is the University of North Carolina Tar Heels basketball team. UNC has been my favorite team since I started following college basketball about seven years ago (I’m only 20, so it’s been a pretty big chunk of my life). This, of course, means that I have an eternal hatred for Duke, something that I have no problem sharing. They are in my top five most hated sports teams in the world, and most likely will always be. And since this is my bracket, I don’t have to care about any biases I have, because no upset is inconceivable (remember Lehigh, Duke fans?). While I was just as shocked as anyone when the Blue Devils fell to a 15 last year, I was delighted beyond belief. I was heartbroken last year when injuries to Kendall Marshall and John Henson helped derail UNC’s tournament run last year, because I truly believe that we had enough talent to win the championship last year, just like in 2009. I also hitch my wagon to some mid-ranked teams every year that I think can make a run, which really backfired on me last year (looking at you, Wichita State). This year the team I’ve been riding for a couple of months has been St. Louis, and I’m actually kind of annoyed that they rose all the way to a 4 seed, because now they aren’t really under the radar anymore. There are always things to watch out for in your brackets, most notably those pesky 12 seeds, and the fact that in the last three years, at least three double digit seeds have reached the Sweet 16. So, without further ado, here’s all my thoughts, upsets, and predictions for the 2013 edition of March Madness. Good luck to all of you with your brackets, and godspeed.

Midwest Region

This is a gauntlet. There’s no other way to put it. And ironically, this is the region I feel the most confident about. Which probably means I’m going to bomb it. It’s headed by number one overall seed Louisville, and it has talent everywhere you look. The 10 seed is Cincinnati (Sweet 16 last year), the 11 could be Middle Tennessee (28 wins), and the 12 is Oregon (Pac 12 tourney champs). A decent amount of grief was given over the fact that Duke was a number two seed instead of obtaining a top spot. But I don’t think Blue Devils fans should be too worried, it’s not like they’ll lose to a 15 in the first ro---oh, wait. Well, at least it can’t happen twice in a row, right? And there’s my sleeper, St. Louis! Love them. Here are my first round winners: LOU, CSU, OSU, SLU, 11 seed (no matter who wins the play-in), MSU, CIN, DUKE. A lot of people are on Oregon as a 12 but I’ll take Oklahoma State’s talent. The round of 32 winners: LOU, SLU, MSU, DUKE. Thought about taking Cincy over Duke here, but I don’t think they’ll be able to score enough. So in the Sweet 16 I’ve got seeds 1-4, which isn’t very exciting. Spoiler alert: this is the only region where this happens. Here’s where it gets interesting: Saint Louis over Louisville, and Michigan State over Duke. Two upsets. That’s right. So in the Elite 8 it’s 4 Saint Louis against 3 Michigan State...and I’ve got the Spartans. As much as I love Saint Louis, and I do hope they get to the Final Four, I can’t go against Tom Izzo and an experienced MSU team. Michigan State to the Final Four, as a three seed.

West Region

When I go through the bracket, I start at the top left and then go down, right, and up. So that’s the order I’m using here, coming down to the bottom left portion to cover the West region. The West, always, has provided some unbelievable shockers, and this year should follow suit. Gonzaga was awarded the final one seed by only losing two games during the season, and I think it is warranted. The dangerous team here is Ohio State from the 2 slot, a defending Final Four participant, while Wisconsin from the 5 spot must not be overlooked. I think the first round out West will be full of surprises. My winners: Zags, Wichita St., WIS, 13 seed, Belmont, NMU, ISU, OSU. And no, I’m not crazy. I need to talk about this 8-9 matchup that should be first to 50 points wins. Last year I picked Wichita St. to make the Final Four as a 5 seed. Bold, and admittedly stupid, looking back on it. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. But I have to pick them. I’ve been anti-PITT all year, and if I pick against WSU this year and they win, I’ll be really pissed. I’d rather go down with the ship. So Wichita St., don’t let me down! I almost picked Ole Miss to beat Wisconsin. Almost. But I won’t rely on the hotheaded Marshall Henderson, no matter how lethal he can be. Give me the Badgers. Big upset here: whoever wins the play-in game will beat Kansas State. Here’s how I see it: at least one of the play-in game winners will win their first game, so I’m doubling down. Also, a 13 has beaten a 4 for five years and counting. I’m grabbing the opportunity. I think that Wisconsin would beat K-State anyway in the next round, so this is a low-risk, high-reward move. But wait! There’s more! Belmont beats Arizona! I don’t like Arizona, and Belmont excels at 3’s which is what the Wildcats hate defending. I’ll take that advantage. And finally, Iowa State beats Notre Dame. The Irish suck in the tourney, and the Cyclones are deadly with 3’s. I think, like Belmont, Iowa State will come into the tournament pumped up and drain shots. A lot of upsets here. Second round: I’ve got the Zags, Wisconsin, Belmont, and Ohio State. All straightforward except for Belmont, who I’ve got advancing to the Sweet 16 over New Mexico. I don’t like the Mountain West. And I need to have a double digit seed in the Sweet 16. So here we are. So that’s the 1, 5, 11, and 2 seeds; and the top teams make it out alive. Gonzaga and Ohio State in the Elite 8, with Gonzaga advancing to the Final Four. The Buckeyes are the popular pick here, and I agree, but I think that the Zags will be able to pull off the “upset” and defy the doubters to make the Final Four, hooking up with Michigan State.

East Region

The East is particularly overwhelming or underwhelming, but it is tough to navigate through. There are two mammoth seeds that are head and shoulders above the rest, in Indiana and Miami. I’ve been projecting the Hoosiers to be my eventual National Champion, but they have not looked the same as they have in the beginning of the season. Personally, I think they can be pushed around and “out-athleted” by a team who can contain the animal that is Oladipo. However, they are still enormously talented, as are the Canes coming out of Miami. And, of course, you have to keep an eye on Butler in that six hole. And get ready, readers, I have a big upset (or two!) coming up here if you want to try to figure out where it is. Here are my winners for round one: IND, NC State, CAL, SYR, BUT, DAV, COL, MIA. A couple of these games made me lose sleep lat night. It took a while for me to convince myself that California can beat UNLV, but now I’m all in. It’s a classic choice: a 12 seed virtually playing at home, against an overrated Mountain West team that beat them earlier in the season. I’m down on the Orange, which isn’t a great feeling as a New Yorker, but I see them advancing. Butler and VCU have established themselves as two teams that you cannot under any circumstances pick against in round one. Meanwhile, DOWN GOES MARQUETTE! My most lopsided upset pick in the tournament involves a 14 defeating a 3. Davidson has talent and leads the nation in free throw percentage, which means they can ice a game as well as light up the scoreboard from the outside. Marquette is pretty good but isn’t great in any aspect of the game, and even though I like them a little bit, I still predict Davidson dropping the hammer on the Golden Eagles. This next game is one that I’m still considering changing, even though I’ve done so multiple times already, but I’m going with Colorado over Illinois. Anytime a team has a go-to scorer like Brandon Paul on the floor it is dangerous to pick against them because you never know when someone will get hot, but I just have a nasty feeling about this one. Colorado gets the nod, with Miami moving on as well. My second round winners: IND, CAL, BUT, MIA. One notable shocker here: Cal over the Cuse! I’m not a believer in Syracuse during the tournament; Boeheim is a top coach, but one title in over thirty years? Really? Don’t see it. There’s my 12 seed in the Sweet 16. In the Elite 8, I have the Hoosiers against the Hurricanes. Another 1-2 Elite 8, which I don’t like, but this would be a titanic matchup. And you know what? I’ve got Miami. They can play big; they can knock down outside shots; they have Shane Larkin, who is an absolutely dynamic point guard who isn’t afraid of the moment, a quality that cannot be overlooked. Canes to the Final Four.

South Region

Finally, the South. A lot of quality teams here, including top seeds that have a history of being upset in the tournament. I’m getting right to it. First round winners: KU, UNC, VCU, MICH, UCLA, FLA, SDST, GEO. I know. Chalk. Makes me cringe. However, I don’t see the first round as the time for upsets in this region. The Wolverines have to be put on notice, especially when they lost to a 13 just last year. The most intriguing first round matchup to me is UCLA against Minnesota in the 6-11 game. The Bruins just lost their second leading scorer, and they struggle where the Golden Gophers excel: rebounding. It’s such an obvious upset pick to take Minnesota that I think UCLA is now the upset pick. No one believes in them, and I think the other members of this team will step up and collectively put their talents together to take down Minnesota. I don’t know why I feel this way, but I just think that a team that is supposed to be upset stands up and wins at least one game. Next round: UNC, VCU, UCLA, GEO. And there are the upsets. Like I said, I’m a Carolina fan. And I think they will take out Kansas in the second round. The small UNC lineup will take Jeff Withey away from the rim, while Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston will rain down threes in the earliest loss for a one seed. I see VCU taking out Michigan. The havoc will get to Trey Burke, who will try to be a hero and jack up shots. But they won’t fall. UCLA will go on to beat Florida as well, who were just dreadful in close games this year. I don’t trust them. Meanwhile, UCLA keeps their magic going at least one more time. This is another one of those double down guesses, because I think that either UCLA or CAL, if not both, will win two games. So I’m putting both of them through to hedge my bets. Of course, they can also both lose in the first round. That’s March Madness for you. The Sweet 16 winners: UNC, GEO. Go Tar Heels! They beat VCU and get to the Elite 8 for the second year in a row on a surprise run from the 8 seed. Meanwhile, Georgetown beats UCLA and advances to the quarterfinals as well. And finally...Georgetown beats Carolina. Excuse me while I go get a tissue to wipe away the tears that are forming. I have the Hoyas, led by Otto Porter, as my Final Four team. I am incredibly terrified by this. I have had great pleasure watching G’town choke time and again in recent memory, but I just don’t see who will beat them because I don’t trust any other team in that part of the region. Deep down, I know that this faith is going to screw me over. I had Mizzou in the Final Four last year, and I have a horrible feeling that the Hoyas are going to be the next two seed with an early loss to screw me over. But that’s what I’ve got.

Final Four

My Final Four is Michigan State vs Gonzaga, and Georgetown vs Miami. And my remaining decisions weren’t too hard to make. There are two teams that I feel are simply superior to their opponents. The winners of the semifinals and the two teams that I think will meet in the National Championship Game, are Michigan State, and Miami. This sets up a fantastic title matchup of an experienced tournament team going up against the new kids who are taking over the world by storm. Both of these groups are airtight defensively, but only one of these teams have an offense dynamic enough to put consistent points on the board, and this team is my national champion. So...can I get a drumroll please?........the winner of the 2013 March Madness Tournament will be the Miami Hurricanes, the two seed out of the East region!!!!!!!!! It’s kind of unsettling to pick a champion that doesn’t have any tournament experience whatsoever, but this team is ready for the spotlight, and I think they will seize the moment. The college basketball world better prepare for a Hurricane. Because they are coming.

So there you have it, folks: the Miami Hurricanes will win the National Championship. Here’s a recap of my bracket, as well as some news and notes to keep in mind when picking your bracket.

• My Final Four is made up of a 1 seed, two 2s, and a 3.
• I think a one seed will lose in the Rd of 32, the Sweet 16, the Elite 8, and the Final 4.
• Upset Alert! I have 9 first rd upsets, the biggest of which is a 14 over a 3 (Davidson).
• I have three 10s, two 11s, a 13, and only one 12 seed winning in the first round.
• Two double digit seeds will make the Sweet 16 (Belmont, California).
• Sleeper team (Seeds 1-4): Saint Louis.
• Sleeper team (Seeds 5-16): UNC (also, watch out for Iowa State).
• Watch out for the winners of the play-in games; odds are at least one will win.
• Only once in 16 years have all four 2 seeds reach the Sweet 16 (Gulp. I have that.)
• Five year streak of a 4 seed going down. I’ve got K-State. Watch out for Michigan.
• Watch out for double digit seeds in Sweet 16. I’ve got two (Cal, Belmont).
• LOOK OUT FOR THE 12 SEEDS. I’ve got one winning; probably too little.
• Not likely for another 15 to win. But then again, Duke is a 2...
• Mountain West teams suck in tourney historically (15-33).
• High scoring teams make upsets, but physical teams make it to the end.

That’s all I’ve got for you, good luck everyone, and happy March!