Saturday, February 16, 2013

2013 NBA All-Star Weekend Predictions


NBA All-Star Weekend Picks

The NBA has by far the best All-Star weekend out of any of the four major sports. They have great skills competitions, which I love (get on this, NFL!). And while the game itself is an offensive fireworks show, the players take it seriously at the end, and the fourth quarter is always full of jaw-dropping basketball. This combination of entertainment and competitiveness between the best players in the world is what makes this game so much better than the Pro Bowl in the NFL. Now that I have my blog, for the first time ever I am going to make my predictions for all the festivities, with Vegas odds, because betting is always the way to go. Before I start, a quick thought about the celebrity game: Kevin Hart always needs to be in it. He makes it fun and entertaining, while being somewhat relatively decent at basketball for his height. Usain Bolt dunking was awesome, even though he took like nine steps before jumping. And a shoutout to Arne Duncan, the US Secretary of Education; this guy is really good and could put up 30 and 15 if he wanted to, but he’s a good sport. Hopefully he heard what Jon Barry said last night, and gets Obama to play in this next year. That would be must-watch basketball. So now, to the picks. Whoever knows me knows I hate taking favorites, so I’m ready for some fun picks. May the best man win.

Skills Competition

I love this one because I’m a fan of point guards. If I play a game of pickup basketball, I will gladly be at point and get everyone else shots, and my favorite player is Steve Nash. There’s basically two easy ways to win this competition: whoever wants it more and hustles, and whoever hits the jumper on the first shot will more often than not come out on top.

THE FAVORITE(S): Tony Parker and Damian Lillard (+300)

THE DARK HORSE: Jeff Teague (+600)

MY PICK: Brandon Knight (+600) - This guy is fast, and I think will be hungry to win this title to bring some national spotlight to him and the Pistons. Still scared of Tony Parker, though; that guy is like a magician, and playing at an MVP level.

Three Point Contest

Love this one, too. Nothing like getting hot from the outside. Three pointers dramatically change momentum in a game, so much so that there’s room for three point specialists in the league on benches, a couple of whom are in this competition.

THE FAVORITE: Stephen Curry. Obviously. (+220)

THE DARK HORSE: Matt Bonner (+600)

MY PICK: Steve Novak (+260) - NOVAKAINE!!!!!! I’m somewhat biased, because I live in New York, but this guy is deadly from beyond the arc. He wins with 23 points. Of course, it’s hard to NOT pick Steph Curry, but will not take favorites in competitions like these. But if you’re going to bet on this, Curry is most likely the way to go; he’s a prolific outside shooter in games, and now he’s not even going to be guarded. But give me Novak or give me death. Not literally.

Slam Dunk

The classic contest of NBA All-Star Weekend. We’ve seen some incredible dunks over the years from guys like Vince Carter and Andre Iguodala, but this year is superstar-less. However, there are some high-flying participants in this competition, so I’m more excited for the Slam Dunk this year than I have been in year’s past. I have no idea what kind of dunks we’re going to see. But I know they’ll be memorable.

THE FAVORITE: James White (+130). You know you’re reputation precedes you when you have two dunks all year but are a good-sized favorite.

THE DARK HORSE: Kenneth Faried (+600). This guy is a beast, which is why he’s nicknamed “The Manimal”. How he’s only at +600 I have no idea, because he’s a force of never-ending energy. He’s favored at #5 out of 6 in the competition. It’s a solid bet.

MY PICK: I honestly have no idea. So I’m going to go with Eric Bledsoe (+500). Projected in the middle of the pack, so he’s a little under the radar. He’s a little guy, so I want him to win, but Bledsoe is a freakish athlete, and can get up with the best of them. Plus, he could have CP3 helping him out a little bit, and he’s from the only good team in LA. I’m taking Bledsoe and running with him.

By the way, there’s been a lot of talk about how LeBron has never competed in a Slam Dunk contest. I agree with the critics. I want him to get off his ass and just participate in one. He could pull off other-worldly slams. It would be must-watch tv, and he would know how to put on a show. He’s too important and great to not try it once. So here’s what my ideal six-man Slam Dunk contest would be: LeBron James; Russell Westbrook; Nate Robinson; Jeff Green; Blake Griffin; Andre Drummond. Epic.

All-Star Game MVP:

THE FAVORITE: LeBron James (+300)

DARK HORSE: James Harden (+1200)

MY PICK: Kevin Durant (+350). I think the West will win, so KD wins MVP.

My Pick:

WEST def EAST, 151-143. Happy watching, NBA fans.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

NFL QBs and their Quest for "Eliteness"


NFL Quarterbacks and the Quest for “Eliteness”

Today’s National Football League has gradually transformed from a pound-the-rock and tough-defense game to a finesse, fast-paced aerial attack. Quarterbacks are becoming smarter and much more athletic, and as if they need more help, even the rules are swung to favor the field generals! QBs are the face of the franchise, the most important player on the field, and are rapidly evolving into speedy dual-threats. Combine this development with the incredible rise in social media and a win-now society that feels the need to label everything, you get the most overused, ridiculous term that is impossible to define: “elite”. No matter where you look, from ESPN to local radio shows, everyone is always talking about which quarterbacks fall into this arbitrary category. The word really came to the forefront during the 2011 preseason, when Eli Manning was asked if he was an elite quarterback, to which he naturally said yes. There were mountains of doubters, until Eli went out and won his second Super Bowl, defeated Tom Brady for the second time. From that time, analysts and talking heads have been offering up different opinions about which quarterbacks are elite, which are second-tier, and so on. The only problem is, nobody really knows what this means. The dictionary definition of elite is “a group of people considered to be the best in a particular society or category”. This is fine, but how do you define “the best”? If you ask ten different people, you’ll get ten different answers. Are they the quarterbacks who throw for the most yards? Have the highest QBR? Pass the eye test? Win the most games? Are the most consistent? Have a Super Bowl ring? I could go on and on. There’s so many different criteria to being a top level quarterback that it is impossible to establish what the word “elite” means. This is why I hate the word elite. It should not be used to classify a select group of QBs. Of course, if you ask any of these players, they will of course say that they think they are among the best. This is what Eli did. And this is what brings us to the indescribable passer known as Joe Flacco.

Before the 2012 regular season, I picked the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl, which they did. Part of my reasoning, almost as a joke, was because Joe Flacco pulled an Eli, and before the season started told the media that he thought that he was the best QB in the league. There was an immediate uproar about this response, as if people expected him to say anything other than that; after all, quarterbacks have to be confident in their ability. While he has never been a flashy, numbers-y passer, he was been able to grind out wins, and has the most wins in his first five season than any other QB in history. When Flacco had a dream postseason, throwing 11 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and winning Super Bowl MVP, there was, once again, much talk about whether Flacco had taken his place among the “elite” quarterbacks in the league. The praisers felt that a Super Bowl championship combined with constant winning earned him the title of “elite”, but when asked where they would rank him, people still listed Flacco at about 6 or 7 in the league. The nay-sayers felt that he is still not a top QB because of inconsistent numbers and the lack of a “wow factor”, believing that he shouldn’t be paid like a Brady or Brees. There are so many arguments and points to make about individual quarterbacks which make it impossible to just create one category of the best. I, for the record, believe that Flacco should be paid like a top quarterback. I won’t use the word “elite”, because I hate that word. So with that said, I am going to rank the NFL quarterbacks in multiple categories that I think can help establish a logical and legitimate list of top signal-callers, which I will do at the end of this piece. Without further ado, here are my ultimate QB rankings, that I will make to the best of my ability.

Best Arm

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2.  Joe Flacco
  3. Matthew Stafford
  4. Andrew Luck
  5. Tom Brady

Best Running QBs

  1. RGIII
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. Colin Kaepernick
  4. Cam Newton
  5. Michael Vick

Stat Stuffers

  1. Drew Brees
  2. Matthew Stafford
  3. Tom Brady
  4. Andrew Luck
  5. Matt Ryan

Young Guns

  1. Andrew Luck
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. RGIII
  4. Colin Kaepernick
  5. Cam Newton

Accurate

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. Peyton Manning
  4. Drew Brees
  5. Matt Ryan

Improvisers

  1. Ben Roethlisberger
  2. Tony Romo
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Russell Wilson
  5. RGIII

Playoff Success

  1. Joe Flacco
  2. Eli Manning
  3. Tom Brady
  4. Ben Roethlisberger
  5. Aaron Rodgers

Consistency

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Tom Brady
  3. Peyton Manning
  4. Drew Brees
  5. Matt Ryan

Top QBs Overall RIGHT NOW

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Joe Flacco
  3. Tom Brady
  4. Peyton Manning
  5. Eli Manning
  6. Drew Brees
  7. Matt Ryan
  8. Ben Roethlisberger
  9. Tony Romo
  10. Andrew Luck
  11. Russell Wilson
  12. RGIII
  13. Colin Kaepernick
  14. Cam Newton
  15. Jay Cutler
  16. Matthew Stafford

I only ranked the top 16, because, let’s be honest, after these guys it really goes downhill. I think that these rankings are extremely fair, without classifying anybody as “elite”. If I had to create a subcategory of the absolute best, I would include the top six guys through Drew Brees. Aaron Rodgers is my top dog, because I think he is the complete package. He’s smart, he can make any throw, he can run, and he’s won a Super Bowl. He is the best overall QB in the NFL right now. I put Flacco at number two, which I’ll explain in his own paragraph. After him I have Brady, Peyton, and Eli. Tom Brady is incredibly consistent and precise in New England’s system and he has enormous playoff success. Peyton follows him because his stats speak for themselves, while Eli comes in fifth. He would have been higher if he could have followed up his Super Bowl win with at least a playoff appearance. I dropped Drew Brees to sixth for a few reasons: he has incredible stats, but he plays in an offense that throws it 40-50 times a game, and we saw how the Saints started out without Sean Payton this year. He won a ring, but so did the five people above him, and he doesn’t have great head-to-head records against those top guys, in general. And remember, this is a ranking for RIGHT NOW; I think he’ll have another huge year next year and move up a couple of spots. No disrespect, Drew Brees, but you’re really just a giant stat stuffer. My second tier is #7-9: Matt Ryan finally won a playoff game this year, so props to him. But he won’t go any higher until he wins a Super Bowl. Roethlisberger does have two rings, and he is incredibly tough, but the Steelers have just fallen, and I think they will only keep heading south. He was never a huge stat guy to begin with, but it doesn’t seem like he has the same winning mystique anymore, especially not without his stellar defense that isn’t anymore. Then there’s Tony Romo...lots of talent, even more underachieving. Enough said. After that comes the young guns: Luck, Wilson, RGIII, and Kaepernick. I can’t put this group higher than #10-14 because they have only started one year. But they will absolutely fly up the charts as time goes on. I would still take Luck over any of these guys; he has huge natural talent, and I think the Colts will at least be in the Super Bowl within the next five years. In terms of the three runners, I put Wilson ahead of RGIII because of more team success, the ability to stay healthy, and just a winning magic about him. Griffin is a special talent as well, but that ACL is scary. Judgment has to be held off. Finally, Colin Kaepernick had some special moments this season, making it to the Super Bowl, but I’m just not a fan of his, which I’ve documented many times. However, I cannot deny that he is very talented and is a nightmare for opposing defenses to handle. He throws a bullet of a pass, but isn’t a polished passer yet, so he has to be ranked behind the rookies.

Back to Joe Flacco to finish up. I have him ranked at number two in the league right now. The only thing holding him back is that he doesn’t light up the stat sheets. He’s never had more than 25 touchdowns in a single season, and has never passed for 4,000 yards. However, this is the reason why he’s up at 2 and Drew Brees fell to 6: he WINS ALL THE TIME. He’s got the most wins in the first five seasons of his career, EVER. He is the only QB to win a playoff game in each of his first five seasons as a pro. He has the most road playoff wins of all time already. He defeated Peyton Manning in Denver and Tom Brady in New England in the playoffs. In fact, he’s got Tom Brady’s number, because the Ravens should have won the AFC Championship Game last year, too. That’s why he’s ahead of Brady, who hasn’t won a title in EIGHT YEARS. Flacco already has the same amount of playoff wins and Super Bowl rings in his career as Peyton Manning, in a third of the time. People compare him to Eli Manning a lot, which I think is a fair comparison, but Eli has missed the playoffs multiple years, including this past one, while Flacco has never failed to win a playoff game. Baltimore started winning during the playoffs when they put the ball in his hands and let him fling the ball around to Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, and Dennis Pitta. He has amazing composure; when the 49ers were making their final drive in the Super Bowl, Flacco was sitting down and it looked like he didn’t even have a pulse! With one minute left in the Super Bowl! This guy is money in the playoffs, and just because he isn’t the greatest regular season quarterback (like Peyton Manning, for example), he gets the job done and rises to every occasion. He’s still young at only 28, so he still has plenty of time to improve even more. And he just put together one of the greatest postseasons of all time, with an 11-0 TD/INT ratio, and beat two of the greatest QBs ever on the road. He wants to be the highest-paid QB in the NFL, and if he gets that money, then good for him. Right now, Drew Brees gets paid $20 million a year, while Peyton Manning gets $19.2 million; I think Flacco deserves at least $17-18 a year by comparison. So all this talk and questioning about Flacco’s eliteness is ridiculous, and not just because it’s an undefinable word. He has proven that he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and is the best winner of this generation. He might not have the most dynamic personality but he doesn’t have to be outspoken; he’s Joe Cool, and I’m Wacco for Flacco. He won’t win any regular season MVPs and it doesn’t matter if he makes the Pro Bowl or not, because this guy is, and always will be, a champion, and deserves to be paid like one. Everything I’ve heard on TV and radio the last couple of weeks has gotten me riled up, so I felt compelled to write this piece, not just about Flacco and the word elite, but to try to fairly rank the NFL quarterbacks taking into account everything they do well, including intangibles. I think Joe Flacco is #2 on that list, and if that makes him elite, fine. The only thing that matters is that he is a winner. So enough of this “elite” stuff--the best QBs are the ones who take care of business, and Flacco did that in 2012.

Monday, February 4, 2013

Super Bowl XLVII Review


Super Bowl Review

Holy crap that Super Bowl was crazy. There were fireworks from beginning to end, minus the little bit of time when the LIGHTS IN THE STADIUM SHUT OFF. During the Super Bowl. How does that happen? Anyway, I want to start off by congratulating the Baltimore Ravens on winning the 2013 Super Bowl with a dominant first half, followed by an OH CRAP OH CRAP OH CRAP second half, that at least kept the game interesting. I also wanted to pat myself on the back, as well as anyone who might have listened to me when I predicted the Ravens to win the Super Bowl in my preseason predictions post. I don’t want to come across as cocky or egoistic because I self-promote myself in times like these; the thing about me is that I always own up to it when I am wrong, so when I nail a prediction as awesome as this one, I feel that it’s fair to take some credit. I wanted to do a Super Bowl review separate from the entire NFL season review because 1: there’s a lot to talk about, and 2: it’s still fresh in my head. So, there’s no more introduction needed. Let’s get into what happened on a thrilling night.

The night started off with some emotions, when the Sandy Hook chorus sang America the Beautiful, and Alicia Keys performed a very moving National Anthem (I started off 0/1 with props; her anthem was much longer than I thought it would be). I feel like if you’re having a discussion with your friend about some of the best voices in this age, Alicia Keys would be one of those people you leave off the list at first, and then the next time you hear her sing, you’re like, “how did we forget about her, she should definitely be included on that list”. The game started off fast too, with the 49ers immediately going 3 and out, followed by a quick Ravens touchdown from Flacco to Boldin. Flacco would later throw a strike to Dennis Pitta for his second TD, putting the Ravens up 14-3. Baltimore was in complete control at this point. The LaMichael James fumble earlier was huge, too; at the time it was 7-3 and the 49ers were in field goal range, at least. After 14-3, Kaepernick, who looked shocked and rattled early on, immediately through a pick to Ed Reed, further sending the 49ers into a tailspin. The next play I want to talk about, is, of course, the fake field goal. It took me completely by surprise. I feel positively and negatively about the call. I like the guts and confidence by John Harbaugh to say, “we’re going for an early dagger right here”, but I would not have made the same call. Not on 4th and 9, that’s the part that I disagree with. A lot to ask from your kicker to get nine yards with a bunch of speedy special teams guys out on the field for San Fran. It ended up not costing them, so in hindsight I would say the call ended up being low-risk (49ers got the ball at like the five), high reward (huge statement and three-possession lead potential). Of course, it didn’t work out, and Baltimore got a quick stop anyway. Then came the play before the half that knocked the wind out of San Francisco. It wasn’t quite the dagger yet, but it was a big blow: the touchdown to Jacoby Jones. I’m surprised he didn’t have his feet up smoking a cigar by a fireplace, that’s how open he was. 56 yards later, the game is blown open, and we end up going to halftime at 21-6, when the niners came up short in the red zone again.

So here we are at halftime. I’m still recovering from how dominant the Ravens were in the first thirty minutes. I was on top of the world, filled with wings, enjoying my pick cruise to a title, and about to witness royalty. Because that’s when Queen Beyonce came out, a goddess stuck on Earth with lowly mortals. That halftime show was extremely energizing. Rumors turned out to be true when the rest of Destiny’s Child popped up from under the stage and joined B for a little bit. To tell you the truth, a small part of me is disappointed, because she didn’t really sing that much with her angelic voice. But for the spots that were lacking for my ears, it was more than made up for with the visual artistry taking place. And by that, I mean Beyonce in a tight black outfit dancing with the grace of a swan and the power of Joan of Arc. Oh my god. The whole world witnessed last night why she was, is, and will always be my celebrity crush. Great performance, a lot of fun to watch, and beautiful in every way. Thank you, Beyonce.

I was still in dreamland when the second half started. And in the blink of an eye, Jacoby Jones was going 108 to the house. I actually missed the first thirty yards and looked up as he broke free from the pack. I was stunned. The whole world knew that Jim Harbaugh had just given a fiery speech to try and get his guys going, and they desperately needed a fast start to the second half. Kick return touchdown for Baltimore. This, I thought, was the dagger. 28-6 with every ounce of momentum and fire that any champion needs. Flacco was on his game, Ray Lewis was the emotional leader he always is, and John Harbaugh was coaching his way to a blowout over his brother...and then the lights went out.

I’m starting a whole new paragraph for this. The 34-minute wait from hell. The game immediately switched from the HarBowl to the Blackout Bowl. There’s been a lot of controversy over ESPN and other networks and radio shows, etc. over the impact of this delay. I agree and disagree with different parts of people’s arguments. I think that this delay DID have an impact on this game, to an extent. I believe in fate, karma, gods, however you want to put it in terms of the sports world. Other things fall into this category of intangible factors on performance, such as momentum. And this wait deeply affected that. This was just after Jones’ kick return that electrified the building. The 49ers were facing a 3rd an 13. They had no confidence. This game was over. The wait changed everything: the energy level of the Baltimore defense just depleted. A huge part of defending is determination, passion, and will, and the fiery streak that the Ravens had just diminished. Part of this is the players’ fault, of course, but the delay was life-sucking. the 49ers, meanwhile, had a chance to catch their breath, and to look at themselves and think, “we’re better than this, and we’re not going out like punks”. From then on, Baltimore played softer and reserved, while the 49ers were the ones attacking, feeling confident and making explosive plays. It was like the teams switched mindsets during the blackout. The Ravens should have came out more aggressive, but they probably felt a little comfortable with their lead, and stepped off the gas, while the niners put the gas to the ground. They scored 17 points in the next four minutes and change. If the 49ers had won this game, I have no doubt that the blackout would have played a major role in it; but a lot of credit has to be given to San Francisco for laying everything on the line, and Baltimore has to be blamed for pulling back. The 49ers did their job after the break, but the Ravens let the niners get in rhythm, which was almost their own downfall. In the end it comes down to the players, but what I’m saying is that the blackout gave the 49ers a new life, and they are the ones who executed afterward, outscoring Baltimore 25-6 for the rest of the game. That’s my stance.

Let’s get back to the action. From here on out, I was terrified. I truly thought that San Francisco was just going to run away with this one at the end. The defensive side of the ball for Baltimore took a huge downturn. The beginning of the comeback was a 31-yard touchdown pass from Kaepernick to Crabtree, with some of the worst tackling on one play I’ve ever seen in my life. YOU TACKLE WITH YOUR ARMS, BALTIMORE, NOT JUST BY HITTING SOMEONE HARD. That should not have been a touchdown, but the Ravens let them run wild. Then Baltimore had an instant three and out, followed by a horrible punt. It took two plays for the 49ers to get back in the end zone. And on the Gore touchdown, Haloti Ngata was knocked out for the rest of the game. In the blink of an eye, it’s a one-possession game and the Ravens don’t have their top run stopper. Oh crap. In the next sequence, Ray Rice, of course, fumbles the ball right back to San Francisco. Then, it’s the stop Baltimore needed: David Akers missed a field goal, right on schedule, giving the Ravens the ball back, with momentum, and a new drive to take back control. Except for one thing: Baltimore had a running into the kicker penalty, which probably could have been roughing if the refs weren’t passive all night long. Akers made his second chance. Combined with the missed fake field goal, that’s six points that the Ravens gave up on field goals. Now it’s 28-23, where one more San Fran touchdown GIVES THEM THE LEAD. Baltimore stopped the bleeding a little bit on their next drive, but not before backup running back Bernard Pierce got hurt on the last play of the third quarter following a huge third down pickup. That was devastating, although he would thankfully come back in the game. I love this kid; I actually think he was better than Ray Rice the last few games of the season. He’s a bulldozer with some nice agility as well, with the speed to get to the outside. He’s a stud. Now on to the fourth quarter.

Still up 28-23, the Ravens have the ball on the one yard line, 3rd and goal after being stuffed on second down. Here’s another decision I didn’t like from the coaching staff for Baltimore. You were aggressive earlier, opting for the fake field goal. You have your opponent breathing down your neck, and have a chance to strike hard. They opted to go play action, and after an incomplete pass, kick the field goal to make it 31-23, an 8-point game. However, this was the time to push, in my opinion. Run the ball. You have two chances, along with fourth down, to get a single yard. They were solid on short yardage all night. Pound the rock from that close, and make it 35-23 in the fourth quarter, taking control back and making it a two possession game. John Harbaugh decided to play it safe, probably because he was scared of the 49ers’ run as well. I would have liked to see them make a stand. Find a way to get one yard. Anyway, I digress. Afterward, Baltimore let San Fran go straight down the field and score again, this time on a Kaepernick scramble. 31-29. 10 minutes left. Next coaching decision: do you go for two this early in the game? My mom was actually the one who questioned this call. I agreed with Jim (I’m just going to use first names to make it easier; I am not on first name terms with the Harbaugh brothers, obviously). Your team is hot. You go for the tie right now. And then, the amazing happened: THEY BLITZED KAEPERNICK AND MANNED UP ON THE OUTSIDE. What a concept. And it worked: Kaep had to throw it fast and missed Randy Moss. Ravens clinging to the lead.

Then came the play of the game, in my opinion. Ravens driving, 3rd and inches at their own 45 with 7:14 to go. Pound this ball, pick up the first, and ice more clock. That’s the plan. But don’t tell Joe Flacco that. He saw the obvious blitz that the LBs were showing, and audibled to the one on one outside matchup, a pass to Anquan Boldin. Joe threw it up, and Boldin once again came down with a marvelous grab, holding onto the ball even though the defender’s arm was in between Boldin’s body and the ball. Shades of that touchdown catch he had against the Colts in the first round. That was the biggest, gutsiest play of the game. The Ravens were not in field goal range, and an incomplete pass would have stopped the clock. After that play, I looked to my parents and said out loud, “That’s a championship play”. The drive would later stall when Dennis Pitta couldn’t bring in a third down pass, which means that Baltimore had to settle for a Tucker field goal, cutting the lead only to 5. This means that the 49ers would be forced to score a touchdown instead of a field goal, but also that a TD would be enough to win. Here’s where that Boldin catch comes into play: not only did it extend the drive, leading to a score instead of a punt, but it took another two and a half minutes off the clock. 34-29. 4:19 left. And here’s the drive for Kaepernick. To either come up short, or become a champion. I felt pretty confident, until the niners went for 24 on a pass to Crabtree, followed by a 33 yard run by Frank Gore to get down to the seven yard line. This is it. Four plays for the Super Bowl Championship.

Needless to say, I was freaking out. Kaepernick was destroying me all second half. And now he only needs seven more yards to win the Super Bowl from down 22. However, the Ravens are really good defensively in the red zone; they destroyed the Patriots when they got inside the twenty in the AFC Championship. 1st down: run by LaMichael James. I’ll take that. 2nd down: incomplete to Crabtree on rollout. Nice. Horrible timeout by the niners. 3rd down: incomplete to Crabtree on a quick out. One more play. One play for the Super Bowl. All out blitz. Fade. Out of bounds. Incomplete. One final goal line stand for Ray Lewis and company to be champions. A lot of questions about playcalling in this sequence, but I don’t care about those. I think the pass calls were ok, the Ravens just defended it well. If anything, they could have tried another run I guess, but in terms of the passes, I think they were solid calls. Would have liked at least ONE to go towards matchup nightmare Vernon Davis. Here’s what I want to focus on. The fourth down play. I gotta be honest...it was defensive holding. But I like the no-call, and I’m not just saying that because I wanted the Ravens to win. The refs were letting them play, there was contact both ways, and Crabtree ran into the defender. It wasn’t a clear cut foul, and I agree with the theory that it would have caused more of a controversy if the call WAS made, then when it wasn’t. It was just a physical play. I was talking all week about the NFC Championship Game, because I thought that fourth down play to Roddy White was  a foul on Bowman, and then maybe San Fran isn’t even in this game. But 49ers fans can’t be mad. They were behind 28-6 and had four plays from inside the ten. It was a bang-bang play that wasn’t called. Not horrible. Not Super Bowl-deciding. Just physical.

Wrapping up this game, the Ravens did get the ball back. Instead of punting at the end, John Harbaugh elected to take a safety, in one of the most sloppy, awkward plays I’ve ever seen. The punter held the ball and ran towards the sidelines while there were like five holding calls and much chaos with the camera angle. 34-31 Baltimore. Free kick returned, and Ginn brought down. Game over. Weird ending. No Gatorade pour or anything. No final Hail Mary attempt. But zeroes were on the clock, and the Baltimore Ravens were Super Bowl Champions. A wild, strange game between two physical teams and two competitive brothers. The Harbaugh-Beyonce-Blackout Bowl will not be soon forgotten. Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31.

Let’s get into the aftermath of the game. First, regarding the losing 49ers: their second half comeback symbolized what could have been if they didn’t suck ass the entire beginning of the game. They’ll be a force for a long time. And while I’m glad he didn’t win, Colin Kaepernick was brilliant during that comeback. Joe Flacco might have the biggest arm, but Kaep throws absolute laser beams. He’s a nightmare to gameplan for. I don’t want him to ever win a Super Bowl, but I don’t hate him anymore, as much anyway. I just really wanted him to lose this one. He’s the permanent starter now, so if he goes the distance in a season beginning to end and ends up winning a title, he will truly have deserved it. No hard feelings Colin. Also, Michael Crabtree has completely flourished with Kaepernick at QB. He’s going to be a top 10 WR next year. But more of that in my season review.

There’s not much else to say about the Ravens that hasn’t been discussed at length. I won’t call Flacco an elite QB, because I don’t believe in that word. I’m going to make a separate post about that topic specifically. However, I do think he deserves at least $15 million a year in his new contract. He’s a proven winner. And he had one of the most incredible postseasons ever: 11 TD, 0 INT. He now has the same amount of playoff wins and rings as Peyton Manning, with the most road/neutral site playoff wins ever. And he’s in his fifth year in the NFL. Other takeaways: I love Bernard Pierce. He’ll be a starter someday, wherever that might be. This offense is just starting to develop. Torrey Smith will keep growing, possibly into the most terrifying deep threat in the game. And a shoutout to Anquan Boldin, who has been an incredible professional since the moment he stepped into this league. In my opinion, he’s the toughest player in the entire league, and I thought that before this playoff run. He had his face broken against the Jets a few years ago and only missed like two weeks. He’s made every big play for Baltimore, and had the play of the Super Bowl with that third down catch. I looked at his stats, and by the time he’s retired he should be at or beyond 1,000 catches, 15,000 yards, and 75 touchdowns, give or take. He might be in the Hall of Fame one day. On defense, this unit was not exactly great, but they sure were passionate and savvy, led by Ray Lewis, who I will probably also dedicate a column to sometime soon. No matter what you think about him, it’s nice to see him go out on top. He is one of the greatest leaders in sports history, and a top five linebacker. Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs also got their first rings. Finally, Jacoby Jones was an unsung hero: he’s the one who made the miracle touchdown catch in Denver, and he was huge in the Super Bowl with the long touchdown catch and the explosive kick return touchdown. That return is Exhibit A of why the NFL should keep kickoffs in the game; it really is the most exciting play in football.

Time for some predictions results! I’m pretty happy with how things went in general. But I wasn’t perfect by any means. First off, I was way wrong on the score; it was much higher than I thought it would be. The game did start off slow, and if the niners don’t give up the Jacoby Jones TD, it’s something like 14-6 at the half. But then it got to 28-6, followed by San Fran becoming explosive. In terms of players, I was way too high on Torrey Smith, and way too down on Vernon Davis. I also missed on the jersey number on first TD, and a few of my own over/unders.

However...I nailed a lot. First, to the NFL awards: the only one I missed was AD getting OPOY as well as MVP instead of Peyton. Congrats to Peterson for winning MVP, well-deserved. I correctly predicted touchdowns by Boldin and Pitta for the Ravens, and by Gore and a Kaepernick run as well. I was right not only about the Kaep interception, but that it would go to Ed Reed as well, so if you bet on that, you’re welcome. I was ALMOST right about Akers: if Baltimore hadn’t committed the running penalty, and that FG missed, he would have been 2/3. I was correct about the niners being down by two in the fourth quarter and missing a two point conversion to tie the game, which was really impressive. I called Flacco winning the MVP, and was SO close on the long pass. I got the OVER right on that, but I said 55 to Torrey Smith--it ended up being 56 and a TD to Jacoby Jones.

Finally, I wanted to give this prediction it’s own spotlight.

My Flacco Prediction: 21-32, 289 yds, 2 TD, o INT, MVP
Actual Flacco Stats: 22-33, 287 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, MVP

Yeah. That one I will definitely cherish. Pretty damn close.

Last but not least, I want to quickly run through some commercials, but I won’t put too much writing here because I want to do a separate commercial piece, not just with Super Bowl ads but all commercials in general. Look out for that one. I’m interested in marketing. So here are some of my thoughts on the ads.

The Good: Audi (prom), Taco Bell (crazy old people), Jeep, Etrade (love that baby), Clydesdale (duh), Dodge Ram farmer thing (deep), Tide (Montana stain)

The Bad: GoDaddy (oh my god. this is ridiculous. definitely bringing this one back in my big commercials piece), Volkswagen (get happy! no. weird jamaican accents. should have been red stripe), Kia (hotbots), Toyota (Kaley Cuoco) others that were bad so I don’t remember them.

The WTF Just Happened: GoDaddy again (because why not), Both Stevie Wonder commercials (I get them, I just thought they were weird. But I did like Zoe Saldana), Axe Apollo (astro-NOT...you know, because of the astr...never mind), Calvin Klein (male model, making hypocrites out of all women who don’t like the over-sexual women commercials).

The Good Celeb Spots: Best Buy (Amy Poehler), Pistachios (GANGNAM STYLE ALERT!!!!!!), Whatever commercial Deion Sanders was in as Leon Sandcastle, Samsung with Seth Rogen and Paul Ruud.

So there we go, all of my thoughts and feelings about the Super Bowl. It was a great night all around, from food to family to Beyonce to a thrilling Ravens win. Even though the NFL season is over, this won’t be my final football column of the year. I’m going to have a complete NFL season review within a week that includes a preview for next year as well, and then I’ll probably have some minor posts until the NFL draft in April. But for now, readers, it’s been an incredible football season, from the replacement refs to Ray Lewis’ retirement run. I hope you enjoyed the season and my writings. I love getting my sports opinions out into the world, so I hope you appreciate reading. Congratulations one more time to my preseason Super Bowl pick, the Baltimore Ravens on winning the 2013 Super Bowl!!! Until next time, sports fans.

Saturday, February 2, 2013

EPIC SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS EXTRAVAGANZA


EPIC SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS EXTRAVAGANZA!!!!!!!!

The moment of truth is here. I’ve been making predictions for the 2012 NFL season since last August, and after all the work, passion, excitement, and heartbreak, we have finally arrived at the final game. The Super Bowl is going to be played between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers, coached by John and Jim Harbaugh, respectively. This piece is going to have everything: Statistical predictions, prop bets, various made up betting lines, a RANT ALERT in the Colin Kaepernick paragraph, and, of course, my final score and champion. I’m even going to throw in my predictions for tonight’s award ceremony and pick the MVP, rookie of the year, and more. I’ll recap every aspect of the Super Bowl in a column hopefully on Monday, and go over the entire season next week in my NFL season review post, so this will be the final time I try to look into the future for this football season. I’m going to announce the winner first, then explore the different aspects of this game. So for the final time, can I get a drumroll please.......

BAL vs SF (-3.5) - My final score is Baltimore 21, San Francisco 19.

Before the season started, I picked the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl. While I did waver on that pick as the season progressed, once they won that epic game in Denver, I jumped right back on them. I always thought that if they had to go up to New England for the AFC Championship, the Ravens would win that game. I picked that before the season, and they stayed strong and did what not many people thought was possible. This team has a fire lit under it, from the retirement of Ray Lewis to the determination of Joe Flacco. They are a team of destiny this year. Let’s get specific.

I’ll start with the quarterbacks. Joe Flacco is a quarterback unlike any other. Many people doubt whether he is elite, but that depends on how you define the word. In this aerial attack, fantasy football world we live in, most people think that the “elite” quarterbacks are the ones who will throw for 5,000 yards, or 40 touchdowns. I don’t buy it. The object of the game is to win, and Flacco has more wins, regular season and playoffs combined, in his first five seasons than any other QB in NFL history. He is the only quarterback to win a playoff game in his first five seasons, and he tops the list of most career road playoff wins already, tied with Eli. He is named “Joe Cool”, because he always has poise, and he rises to the occasion when it matters most. He’ll never blow you away with stats, but if he wins this game then he’ll have the same number of rings as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Joe Namath, Steve Young, and others. He has the strongest arm in the league in an offense that likes to throw deep. I’m not calling him the best QB in the league, but if you like the 49ers in this game, it shouldn’t be because you don’t think Joe Flacco can win this game.

Colin Kaepernick has taken over the sports world in the last two months. I was skeptical of the move to start him over Alex Smith, but it has obviously paid off. But I still don’t like him. He walked into the easiest situation ever: a great coach, stifling defense, and powerful running attack and offensive line. His claim to fame was that crazy game against Green Bay when the Packers defense looked like a high school team. He’s lethal when running, which means the Ravens have to stay outside and make him hand off to Frank Gore. I think he’s due for some bad karma. Reports are that Kaepernick is trying to trademark his touchdown dance when he kisses his bicep as “Kaepernicking”. What an arrogant son of a bitch. He’s made NINE career starts in this league. He has not won anything yet, and is only here because the rest of his team is great and because Atlanta choked like dogs, as usual. Who does he think he is that he can strut around like he owns the place and trademark a move? DOES HE THINK HE’S THE FIRST AND ONLY PERSON TO KISS HIS BICEP??!? The Ravens better pound him. Knock him on the ground every single time he goes outside, stand over him, and kiss their biceps right on top of him. Give him helmet to helmet hits. I don’t care. Sacrifice the 15 yards to knock him on his ass and rough him up. People killed LeBron for acting like royalty before he won his championship; why is no one getting in Kaepernick’s face for being this obnoxiously self-entitled? On the other side of the ball is Ray Lewis, someone who would give everything for this game, but he’s a soldier and would never dream of exploiting the sport like that. This, in my opinion, is incredibly selfish, saying that Colin wants to maximize profit on his own ability and not team success, which shows where his head is at. The football gods should not want this guy to just walk into a starting lineup and win a Super Bowl. It’s not right for the integrity of the sport. Bernard Karmell Pollard, I’m looking at you. Sit this guy down. What a punk.

Backs and Receivers: Advantage Baltimore. The Ravens just swallowed up the Patriots’ weapons in New England; do you really think they’ll be scared of the likes of Michael Crabtree and company? Meanwhile, the combination of Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce has been phenomenal this postseason; this Pierce kid is a bulldozer, and in my opinion could be a starter right now. It will be up to them to pound the rock against this brutal 49ers front seven and keep the defense honest. The Ravens receivers are better, too; Anquan Boldin is probably the toughest player in the league (at the very least, toughest WR), and can match up with the physicality of the secondary. Torrey Smith is a huge weapon deep; I think they get at least one huge play downfield. I think that the X factor for the entire game is Frank Gore. In the pistol, the Ravens have to contain Kaepernick, which means Gore will be relied on to rush the inside. If he breaks loose, San Francisco will run to a victory, but if he can be bottled up, it’ll make Kaepernick have to throw the ball to win.

Defense: The 49ers defense is undoubtedly more complete; they are younger, faster, and stronger. However, in the last few games they have been getting torched by the deep ball. Matt Ryan had 400 yards against them last game. And we all know what the Ravens like to do on offense...hello, Torrey Smith. The front seven is critical, as always; if they let Ray Rice run on them from the start, then they will get exposed. But if they stuff the run, and get pressure on Flacco, then this group is tough to stop. The Ravens defense has not been as solid all season long, but this is a new team. They have proven veterans on this side of the ball in Lewis, Reed, Suggs, and Ngata, among others. They had two weeks to prepare for this pistol read option attack, so let’s hope they have it figured out by now. This group is also playing with tremendous pride and heart, which cannot be measured on paper; I believe that one’s will to win has a huge impact on D. Two quick notes on the Baltimore defense: first, I don’t know exactly what’s going on with Ray Lewis and this deer antler spray stuff, so I’m not going to address it, but no matter what happens, he’s a top 5 linebacker to ever play in the NFL and probably the greatest athlete leader that I have ever seen. Congratulations on an amazing career, Ray. Second...Bernard Karmell Pollard is rapidly becoming my favorite player in the NFL. He has now injured Brady, Welker, Gronk, and Ridley in four separate seasons with three different teams. It’s the most incredible, inexplicable trend ever. I hope he gets a ring. Here’s to you, Bernard Karmell Pollard...the Patriot Assassin.

Coaches: I’ve put this off long enough. It’s time to address the HarBowl. The fact that two brothers can coach in any Super Bowl is awesome. It’s that much better when the get to square off against each other. No team has an advantage here. John is more calm and poised, but Jim is fiery and passionate. Good traits all around for different reasons. This matchup has been documented on ESPN enough. I’ll just say mazel tov to the Harbaugh family for such an amazing accomplishment.

Timeline of the Game: This is going to be a quick synopsis of how I think the game will go. It’ll be low-scoring; a slugfest, not a shootout. I don’t think either team gets past ten points in the first quarter. At some point in the game, Flacco will hit Torrey Smith for a 50+ yard pass, whether it goes for a TD or not. With the Ravens up 14-13, Flacco will hit Dennis Pitta for a 10-ish yard touchdown in the late 3rd/early 4th quarter. Kaepernick will run for a score to make it 21-19, but the 2-pt conversion will fail. At some point in the game David Akers misses a field goal, maybe even in the last few seconds to lose the game. Kaepernick will not throw for a single touchdown, but will throw an interception to Ed Reed. Baltimore’s first touchdown will be a run from inside the five by either Pierce or Vonta Leach. Here are some specific player predictions:

QB
Flacco: 21-32, 289 yds, 2 TD, o INT, MVP

Kaepernick: 19-35, 241 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT; 6 rush, 22 yds, TD

RB

Rice: 21 rush, 83 yds; 3 rec, 31 yds

Pierce: 11 rush, 51 yds, TD

Gore: 20 rush, 79 yds, TD; 4 rec, 39 yds

WR

Boldin: 7 rec, 81 yds, TD

Smith: 5 rec, 91 yds (long of 55)

Crabtree: 8 rec, 88 yds

Moss: 2 rec, 23 yds

TE

Pitta: 4 rec, 55 yds, TD

Davis: 4 rec, 52 yds

DEF

Lewis: 9 tack, 1 TFL

Reed: 4 tack, 1 INT

Pollard: 5 tack, 1 FF

K

Tucker: 0/0 FG, 3/3 XP

Akers: 2/3 FG, 1/1 XP, long 41, miss 44

Prop Bets

OVER/UNDER Jersey # of First TD (27.5): UNDER. First TD goes to Gore (21), or Rice instead of Pierce/Leach.

OVER/UNDER Flacco long completion (41.5): OVER. 55 to Torrey Smith.

OVER/UNDER .5 players injured by Bernard Pollard: OVER. (out at least one play).

OVER/UNDER 47.5 total points scored: UNDER. 21+19=40

Super Bowl MVP: Joe Flacco (5/2)

Exact Points scored by the 49ers: 19 (40/1)

OVER/UNDER 2:15 Nat’l Anthem by Alicia Keys. UNDER (1:59)

OVER/UNDER 1.5 fantasies of Beyonce during halftime: Way OVER. I love her.

Color Gatorade poured on winning coach: ORANGE. (3/1)

OVER/UNDER 3 God mentions by Ray Lewis in interview: OVER. Easy.

OVER/UNDER 1.5 helmet to helmet hits called: OVER. Two really tough teams.

OVER/UNDER largest lead 14: UNDER. Tight, physical game whole way through.

OVER/UNDER 2.5 players attempt a pass: UNDER. No Alex Smith in this one.

Will Beyonce’s hair be straight or crimped at beginning of show: CRIMPED.

OVER/UNDER 2.5 HarBowl references during game. OVER. Once in a lifetime event.

NFL Awards

Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano, IND. Chuckstong.

Offensive Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, QB, DEN

Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt, DL, HOU

Offensive Rookie of the Year: RGIII, QB, WAS (I think Luck SHOULD win, but won’t)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Luke Keuchly, LB, CAR

Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, DEN

MVP: Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN. I think he should beat Peyton. Manning had a solid year in a decent year for QBs. Peterson had one of the greatest seasons for a RB in the history of the NFL less than a year after a blown out knee. The Vikings were 3-13 last year, had no passing game, and a mediocre defense, and AD led them to the playoffs. Peyton went 13-3 against primarily easy teams. I hope Peterson wins. And Peyton Manning is my favorite player.

So, there’s everything I got for you. I think that this will be a low-scoring game, where the first half will be more of a feeling-out process to try to make out the opponent’s game plan. Whichever team can establish the running attack will win the game. Both teams have potentially explosive offenses but dynamic, intelligent defenses as well. I think that the Baltimore Ravens, my preseason Super Bowl champion, will control the 49ers rushing game and make Colin Kaepernick beat them. I don’t think he’s capable. This is Joe Flacco’s moment. He called himself elite (like Eli last year); he’s playing for a contract; he’s got “Nobody Believes in Me” fuel; and he’s a proven winner. This is the final game of Ray Lewis’s career, and there’s no way the Ravens make him go out with a loss. I’m ready for a physical bloodbath. The HarBowl is going to be epic. Beyonce’s halftime show is going to be incredible. I thought about live-tweeting it but I don’t want to be distracted. Not to get side-tracked, but for those who don’t know me, Beyonce is my celebrity crush, so it’s a big deal for me. Getting back to the game, I think Baltimore will do everything in their power to swallow up Kaepernick’s running ability, and hopefully they’ll be in his face all night long. That’s all from me; the only thing left now is the game. Hopefully you’ll be watching with friends and loved ones, with some great food to go with it. I’m getting ready to watch with my family with a whole lot of wings. So here we go. The stage is set in the Superdome. Which team will rise up and be crowned Super Bowl Champions? UPSET SPECIAL. Baltimore 21, San Francisco 19. Good luck to everyone, whichever team you’re rooting for. And LET’S GO RAVENS.